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Climate change challenges to marine ecosystems in the Western Hemisphere WHMSI III - Asunción 2008 C. Drews, L. Hawkes, N. Bood and J. Hoffman WWF - Programa Marino y de Especies para Latinoamérica y el Caribe Methane load of the atmosphere The good news: Conservation …well, does it really? … a matter of time-scale … works! Climate Change - how does it affect marine biodiversity? • • • • • Increasing ambient and SST Sea level rise Acidification, salinity changes and O2 Alterations in oceanic currents Intensity and frequency of extreme weather events – (e.g. rainfall, drought, storms and hurricanes) • (UV radiation via link with temperature) - JENNY Proyecciones regionales (IPCC) Annual mean, DJF and JJA temp and precipitation change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099 Figure Figure 11.15 A CLIMATE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN Annual precipitation Source: Hulme & Sheard 1999 WWF and CRU Even if the world community succeeds in reducing CO2 emissions from 2015 onwards, ocean levels will rise by between 0.40 to 1.40 meters, maybe not in the 21st century, but a bit later. IPCC head Rajendra Pachauri, Spiegel, 19 November, 2007 Cancún - desde 57 km 2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en Cancún - desde 57 km 2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en Yucatán - desde 587 km Source: Holland & Webster 2007 Impacts of climate change - Fish - Coral reefs - Marine turtles What are the impacts on fish? -Changes in abundance and distribution - Some tropical waters empoverished Implications to food security and coastal economies. Present: SBT, CSIRO Mk3 Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO 2100: SBT, CSIRO Mk3 Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003 (WWF-ICRAN) Economics of reef degradation. Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003. Warmer SST - impacts to coral reefs WWF / Melanie McField WWF / Cat Holloway 2005 • Hottest year since records (1880) • Record: hurricane frequency (13) and intensity (Wilma) • 50-100% bleaching • Disease followed bleaching • Mortality: US Virgin Islands 52%, T&T 73% in some colonies The future • Unknown increase in thermal tolerance • “Committed” thermal stress next 20-30 years • Optimistic forecast: low intensity bleaching (> 2oC DHM) every 2 years by 2050s. • Annual severe bleaching if business as usual Source: Wilkinson & Souter 2008 Observed climate change impacts in Belize • More intense storms Hurricane Iris 2000 Climate change impacts in Belize Elevated sea temperatures = bleaching Southern lagoon reef 1998 Reef death in 1998 (95%) Climate change impacts in Belize • Flooding with damage to properties The cost of inaction • Overall, in the Caribbean, climate change is predicted to cause an annual loss of US$ 109.9 million in terms of increased sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise and loss of species among others, which equates to 13.8% of the total GDP Source: Tol, R.S.J. (1997) A Decision-Analytic Treatise of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Money talks: how much is a marine turtle worth? CONSUMPTIVE USE NON- CONSUMPTIVE USE A marine turtle is worth more alive than dead By Sebastian Troëng and Carlos Drews (2004) Marine turtle tourism in the Western Hemisphere • Barbados, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Grenada, Guyana, Mexico, Panama, Puerto Rico, St Lucia, St Vincent, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, USA (Florida), … • 15 nations, at least 50 sites, and increasing … Marine turtles: a driver of cash income •Two thirds of countries with developing economies have marine turtles •175,000 turtle tourists / year, more than 90 sites in more than 40 countries. • 2002 - US$ 6.7 mio in Tortuguero (235 guides, 26.292 visitors) • 1,280 employees (60% female) in Brazil by Projeto TAMAR (merchandizing & tourism) • Gross revenue 3 x higher for use of turtle alive than dead Built Natural Financial Healthy Ecosystem Vital Economy Political Social Well-Being Cultural Human Social BEACHES - a prime asset for tourism Marejada en Junquillal - WWF/ Gabriel Francia Myrtle Beach - WWF Carlos Drews Temperature Sex Determination 34oC 32oC 29oC 27oC 25oC Climate change causes sex ratio biases and mortality Predicción del porcentaje de sexos en los diferentes puntos Época seca Más machos Más hembras 100 % hembras Desnaturalización de los huevos WWF Carlos Drews Fuente: Micaela Peña-Mosquera 2006 Third generation conservation - Threats are “God given” agents - New challenges / knowledge / capacity gaps - Resilience: a new perspective on mitigation of non-climate stressors - Adapting people and ecosystems to the inevitable - Crystal ball driven