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Earth System Feedbacks: Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle to Drought and Fire Canberra, Australia 5-8 June 2006 – Part I 8-9 June 2006 – Part II (Australia focus) Organized by: Global Carbon Project ARC Network for Earth System Science CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Australian Climate Change Science Program Australian Academy of Science Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System European Space Agency The Earth System Science Partnership Carbon-Climate-Human system GCP Science Framework 1. Patterns and Variability 2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks 1.1. Enhancing Observations 2.1. Integrated C Sink Mechan. 1.2. Model-data Synthesis 2.2. Emergent Properties of the Carbon-Climate system 1.3 Carbon Budgets 2.3. Vulnerabilities of the C-C-H 3. Carbon Management 3.1. Mitigation Options 3.2. Carbon Management & Sustainability 3.3. Regional/Urban Develop. Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System 2006/07 Land Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC Oceans CH4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Many Pools and Processes not included in Earth System models Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006 Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System 400 Pg C - frozen soils vulnerable to warming >400 Pg C - frozen sediments vulnerable to warming Land Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC Oceans CH4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006 Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century Photo: Erkki Oksanen Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System 400 Pg C – cold peatlands vulnerable to climate change Land Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC Oceans CHC 100 Pg – tropical peatlands 4 Hydrates Biological Pump vulnerable to land use and Solubility Pump climate change Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006 Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century >500System Pg C Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate vegetation and soils vulnerable to drought x land use x fire Land Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC Oceans CH4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006 Trends in C Emissions from Fires 3500 3000 Tg C yr-1 total 2500 1800 tropical savanna 1400 1000 600 temperate forest 200 tropical forest boreal forest 1905 1925 Mouillot et al. 2006 1945 1965 1995 Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Atmospheric CO2 (ppm) 10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle Difference Coupled-Uncoupled 0.1°C to 1.5 ° C 20 to 200 ppm Friedlingstein et al. 2006 Fossil Fuel + Land Use Change Scenarios (IPCC SRES) CO2 Concentrations ~250 ppm IPCC SRES 2000; IPCC TAR 2001 Examples of vulnerable C pools to drought of global significance Boreal Forest WC Savanna Forest Drought and Land Use Temp. Plantations Boreal Fires 2003 NH Drought Heat Wave Borneo Peatlands Drought and Fire Savanna SE Forest Carbon Emissions from Tropical Peatlands – Borneo Spessa et al., in preparation Carbon Emissions from Tropical Peatlands – Borneo Annual C Emissions from peat fires Emissions (Giga tonnes) 1.4 1.2 carbon CO2 CO 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1997 1998 Spessa et al., in preparation 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year -2 -1 NEE (gC m d ) 6 2002 2003 2004 4 CO2 source 2 0 CO2 sink -2 Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Hirano et al., in preparation Month Northern Hemisphere Forest Sinks - Disturbances Pg C yr-1 Goodale et al. 2002 Canadian Forest Net Carbon Uptake Land Uptake (Tg C /yr-1) Disturbed Area (M ha) 10 8 6 4 2 0 1920 1940 ClearCut 1960 1980 Fire Insects 2000 Total 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 1920 1940 1960 Variable Temp 1980 Constant Temp 2000 Kurz & Apps 1999 Climate Variability Effects on the C Sink Angert et al. 2005; Dai et al. 2005 2003 Heat Wave in Europe Model NPP gCm-2 mo The largest productivity crash of the past 100 years 30% Reduction of GPP 0.5PgC Net source of CO2 4years Equivalent C sink CO2 Anomaly Ciais et al. 2005, Peylin et al., unpublished growt h rate ((ppm ppm/yr) yr-1) CO concentration mixing ratio (p (ppm) Rate Growth 2 Annual Mean CO2 at Cap Grim (Tasmania) carbon dioxide (C O 2 ) 0.54 %/yr 380 2005 Global Average: 279 ppm Bern ref. model 360 340 El Nino 2.5 Drought growth rate increased by 70% over last 30 years 2.0 1.5 La Nina 1.0 Pinotubo 0.5 1970 La Nina 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Paul Fraser, unpublished Revised Global Carbon Budget 1980-2005 1980’s 1990’s Atmospheric Increase 3.3±0.1 3.2±0.1 4.1±0.1 Emissions (FF) 5.4±0.3 6.4±0.3 7.0±0.3 Net Ocean-Atmosph. Flux -1.8±0.8 -2.2±0.4 -2.2±0.5 Net Land-Atmosph. Flux -0.3±0.9 -1.0±0.5 -0.7±0.5 Land Use Change Residual Land Sink 1.3 -1.6 1.6 -2.6 NA NA (-3.8 to 0.3) (-4.3 to 1.0) GCP, IPCC in preparation 2000-2005 Land Uptake (Pg C yr-1 21st Century Projections of Terrestrial C Uptake 6 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models Cramer et al. 2001, IPCC TAR 2001, Friedlingstein et al. 2006, in press 10 Carbon Coupled GCMs – C4MIP Scope of the Workshop Will changes in the hydrological cycle, particularly drought characteristics (intensity, frequency, longterm trends) weaken the terrestrial C sink? What are the consequences of the perturbation of the carbon-water system for regional and global management? Workshop Themes Theme 1: Observations Climate and Vegetation Theme 2: Processes and Controls of the Coupled Carbon-Water System Theme 3: Modeling Carbon-Water Interactions Theme 4: Vulnerability of Ecosystems Services Outcomes • Current evidence and understanding of impacts of drought on the strength of the terrestrial C sink and their underlaying drivers. • Implications for global and regional management of the carbon-water system. • Identification of key research areas to advance in this field. Products 1. A synthesis paper on the state-of-the-art understanding on the drought-C sink issue. – Short ms. for EOS, Science, Nature, others, … 2. A synthesis paper on the state-of-the-art understanding on management of the carbon-water system. – Ecological Applications, others, … 3. Special Feature or Special Issue if enough interest exist. – Rapid Web Based Journals • • – – – – Biogeoscience (EGU, AGU) Carbon Balance and Management Global Change Biology Ecological Applications Climatic Change Others Structure of the Workshop 20 minute talks 10 minute for questions 1 hour after each theme Wednesday afternoon 4 hours – products and ms. outlines Thursday morning Overlap with a National Workshop Thursday afternoon to Friday National Workshop Thursday afternoon Trip to Namagi end