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Climate change modelling: Role of carbon cycle for future CO2 concentrations CLIMATE CHANGE Lecture 8 Oliver Elison Timm ATM 306 Fall 2016 Objectives • Provide a qualitative and quantitative overview about sources, sinks, and fluxes of carbon dioxide between the carbon reservoirs • Relationship between energy production and carbon dioxide emissions • Relationship between CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 concentrations • Role of ocean carbon cycle and terrestrial vegetation for the projected future CO2 concentrations. Carbon cycle: Natural and anthropogenic contributions (representative for ~2010) 120+3 60 +9 Units Fossil fuel burning Cement production Land use change 90+2 Fluxes: 90 60 giga ton Carbon per year (GtC/yr) (= PgC/yr) Resevoirs: GtC (=PgC) Yellow numbers: natural fluxes Red: anthropogenic fluxes Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/ (retrieved 2014-09-15) Past CO₂ variations in the natural Earth system were in the range between 190-300 ppm. Glacial cycles on average repeated a cylce in ~ 100,000 years Temperatures changes are representative for Antarctica. They are based on Antarctic ice core records (oxygen isotopes). Scaling factors apply to convert it into global mean (active research) Image source: The Encyclopedia of Earth: http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/150101/ The Carbon Cycle IPCC, AR5, WGI, Chapter 6, [2013], Fig. 6.1 Schematic view on the global carbon cycle showing the major reservoirs and fluxes. Atmospheric increase 4GtC/yr The Carbon Cycle Anthropogenic emission: ~9 GtC/yr Ocean sink: 2.3GtC/yr IPCC, AR5, WGI, Chapter 6, [2013], Fig. 6.1 Terrestrial vegetation sink: 2.6 GtC Simplified schematic of the global carbon cycle showing the major reservoirs Estimated contributions to the global CO2emissions since industrial revolution The integrated (cumulative) CO2 emissions are 555 GtC between 1750 and 2011. About half of the emissions remained in the atmosphere (240 GtC) Majority of carbon dioxide emissions in US from energy productions US Global Change Research Program How much CO₂ is emitted from coal, oil, and gas when converted to energy: Pounds of CO2 emitted per million British thermal units (Btu) of energy for various fuels: Coal (anthracite) 228.6 Coal (bituminous) Coal (lignite) 205.7 215.4 Coal (subbituminous) 214.3 Diesel fuel and heating oil 161.3 Gasoline 157.2 Propane 139.0 Natural gas 117.0 Numbers obtained from the US Energy Information Agency http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11 How much CO₂ is emitted from coal, oil, and gas when converted to energy: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11 How much CO₂ is emitted from coal, oil, and gas when converted to energy: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11 Visualizing carbon emissions Source: http://www.carbonvisuals.com Online atlas for global carbon emissions http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org Change in global emissions over time 36 GtCO2 = 10GtC/yr Tollefson, Nature, 2013 Note: Reference level for Kyoto Protocol: targeted percentages of emissions reductions were expressed in % relative to 1990 values. Paris climate conference [COP21], 2015: European Union’s goal is still referring to 1990 level. “The framework contains a binding target to cut emissions in EU territory by at least 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.” Emissions by country over time USA EUR CHINA RUSSIA Emissions by country over time USA EUR CHINA RUSSIA Emissions by country over time CHINA USA RUSSIA EUR A different view on CO2 emissions (including trade) Davis and Caldeira, PNAS, 2010 Largest interregional fluxes of emissions embodied in trade (Mt CO2 y−1) from dominant net exporting countries (blue) to the dominant net importing countries (red). Net import of emissions to the US (in 2004) 10.8% of total consumptionbased emissions (2.4 tons CO2 per person). 22.5% of the emissions produced in China in 2004 were exported Conversion factors: Fluxes of carbon or carbon dioxide are expressed in two ways: Mass CO2 or mass carbon (C) per time. The conversion factor is given by: The atomic weight of carbon is 12.001115 The atomic weight of oxygen is 15.9994. Total atomic weight of CO2 is 43.999915. The ratio of carbon dioxide to carbon is 43.999915/12.001115 or 3.6663 units of carbon mass GtC x 3.7 = mass GtCO2 mass GtCO2 / 3.7 = mass GtC Conversion factors: mass GtC = mass PgC Giga is 10^9 Peta is 10^15 A metric ton is 1000kg = 10^6g Currently a first approximation for converting GtC into CO2 in ppm is 1GtC = ½ ppm Figure from PPT by Corrine Le Quéré (UNFCCC, retrieved 2014-09-15) Global carbon cycle Facts worth the remember: The perturbation of the natural fluxes are small, but they disturb the natural balance Anthropogenic CO₂ Emission: Nearly half is taken up in ocean and on land by physical and biological processes This ratio can change with time (CO₂ fertilization effects ,changes in the solubility etc.) Full removal of anthropogenic CO₂ from atmosphere is a slow process (~100-1000 years) Figure from PPT by Corrine Le Quéré (UNFCCC, retrieved 2014-09-15) Just published new report shows a flattening in emissions Last three years stabilization in global emissions. At this level it would take 50 years to emit same amount as was in the entire industrial period before. Latest report from C. Le Quéré et al.: Global Carbon Budget 2016 (data available from http://dx.doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016) Latest report from C. Le Quéré et al.: Global Carbon Budget 2016