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A discussion document on the potential for Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation within the Agriculture and Forestry sector Public consultation in preparation for the agriculture sector contribution to the national mitigation plan under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill 2015 Climate Change and BioEnergy Policy Division January 2015 1 Table of Contents ACRONYMS/ABBREVIATIONS 4 FOREWORD 5 1. 7 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profile for the Agriculture Sector 2. BACKGROUND CONTEXT 8 10 2.1 The UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol 10 2.2 Consideration of Metrics 11 2.3. EU Climate and Energy Package 2008 12 2.4. Proposed 2030 Climate and Energy Policy Framework 13 2.5 The National Policy Position 15 2.6 The Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill 15 2.7 Scope of the national mitigation plan 15 2.8 Challenges for the sectors 2.8.1 Agriculture: 2.8.2 Forestry: 2.8.3 Renewable Energy: 16 16 18 18 2.9 EPA Reporting 20 2.10 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) for Irish Agriculture 2. 10.1. Abatement potential for agriculture 2.10.2. Abatement potential from farm afforestation 20 20 21 3. MITIGATION AND THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR 23 3.1 Introduction 23 3.2 Key Policies and Drivers for the Agriculture Sector A.1 Food Harvest 2020 A.2 The Food Harvest 2020 Environmental Analysis Report. B Common Agricultural Policy Reform 2014-2020 C. The Bioenergy Plan 24 24 25 26 27 3.3 Agriculture Sector Mitigation Action Plan 28 2 3.3.1 Agriculture Sector Mitigation Actions up to 2020 Rural Development Programme (RDP) 2014-2020 3.3.2 Outline of Mitigation Actions 3.4 Measure Report Verify 4. THE FORESTRY SECTOR 28 28 32 37 40 4.1 Introduction 40 4.2 Climate change mitigation and Irish forestry 41 4.3 Key Policy drivers for the Forestry Sector A. EU Forest Policy B. National Forest Policy C. Forests, products and people - Irelands forest policy – a renewed vision D. Irish Forests and Renewable Energy E. Irish National Biodiversity Plan 42 42 42 43 44 45 4.4 Forestry Sector Action Plan 2014-2020 4.4.1 Introduction 4.4.2 Create new woodland to capture carbon and increase the level of forest cover 4.4.3 Increase the supply of forest based biomass 4.4.4 Support private forest holders to actively manage their forests 4.4.5 Enhance the environmental and social benefits of new and existing forests 4.4.6 Summary of Action Plan 2014 -2020 45 45 46 47 48 50 52 4.5 Measure, Report, Verify (MRV) 53 5. CHALLENGES TO 2050 57 5.1 The challenge to 2050 57 5.2 The Emissions Gap 57 APPENDIX NO. 1 Research Initiatives 65 REFERENCE NOTES 70 3 Acronyms/Abbreviations CDM Clean Development Mechanism DAFM Department of Agriculture Food and the Marine EPA Environmental Protection Agency ESD Effort Sharing Decision ETS Emissions Trading System FH2020 Food Harvest 2020 GHG Greenhouse Gases IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JI Joint Implementation NESC National Economic & Social Council OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 4 FOREWORD The Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, and its agencies have being working hard to ensure the long term environmental sustainability of the Irish agricultural and forestry sector. The challenge facing our sector is immense because we have to produce extra food to feed a growing global population while respecting the environmental limits of the planet. It is not acceptable to sacrifice the future to the needs of the present by producing food in a way that degrades our soil and water, destroys our biodiversity and exacerbates climate change. It is clear that the “sustainable intensification” of food production – that is producing more food while respecting and enhancing the environment - is the way forward. Ireland has been a champion of this approach for several years in the EU and internationally. In October this year, as part of its conclusions on a 2030 Climate and Energy framework, the European Council recognised that “the multiple objectives of the agriculture and land use sector, with their lower mitigation potential, should be acknowledged, as well as the need to ensure coherence between the EU's food security and climate change objectives”. This followed a great deal of work from across Government departments, in terms of engagement with the EU institutions and represents a very significant development in the thinking and approach of the EU in relation to formulation of future ambition policy for the agriculture, land and forestry sector. In the Programme for Government a commitment was given to publish a Climate Change Bill to provide certainty surrounding Government policy. This Bill was published on 19th January 2015 and will provide for the submission of National Low Carbon Transition and Mitigation plans and National Climate Change Adaptation Frameworks to the Government. Ireland will also continue to seek a coherent approach to the twin challenges of climate change and food security at international level. At the UN Climate Summit in New York on 23rd Sept 2014 Ireland also signalled its intention to join a new voluntary global initiative - the Alliance on Climate Smart Agriculture – which aims to bring together Governments and other stakeholders around the three pillars of climate smart agriculture: sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes; adapting and building resilience to climate change; reducing and/or removing greenhouse gases emissions, where possible. The role that forestry plays in contributing to climate change mitigation is often underestimated. This is why securing recognition of the role that our forests play in carbon sequestration at the European Council in October was so significant. This is very important for Ireland as afforestation is a major greenhouse gas mitigation measure that we are taking on agricultural land. We are supporting a range of research initiatives, at national and international level, on many dimensions of sustainable agriculture. Our department has three competitive research funding programmes; Stimulus on agricultural production, FIRM on food and CoFoRD on Forestry 5 research. Sustainability and Resource efficiency were key themes for recent research awards under all of these programmes We intend to do much more and with our natural advantages, and the quality of our agricultural research, we should seek to be the global leader in sustainable food production. This is not to say the task will be easy. We will face challenges, but we have done much already and can do much more. This discussion document aims to stimulate thinking from the public and interested stakeholders on the very important area of mitigation in the agriculture and forestry sector. Submissions are invited to help to inform the preparation of a sectoral mitigation plan which will in turn feed into a national mitigation plan. Submissions should be provided by email to [email protected] by Monday 23rd March 2015. Climate Change & Bioenergy Policy Division 19th January 2015 6 1. Introduction Climate Change is one of the major challenges of our generation, and is in large part attributable to human activity. Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC i. ‘Warming of the Climate System is unequivocal and some observed changes are unprecedented on time scales of decades to millennia. Changes have been widely observed on land, in the oceans and in the atmosphere. The human influence is clear’, IPCC AR5 WG1, 2013. Over the past centuries the burning of fossil fuels, land use change, agriculture and industrial activities has increased the concentration of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide ((CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in the atmosphere. This has increased the global average temperatures by just under one degree Celsius and is causing changes in weather patterns, impacts on natural and managed systems and sea level rise. We still don’t know the details of how these changes will affect Ireland, but we know that we need to act responsibly and prepare for the future. We must plan for a different climate and our generation needs to respond quickly if we want to protect our prosperity and quality of life. The OECD (2012) estimates that by 2050 the world population will reach nine billion, 70% of whom will live in urban areas. Demand for food, water and land will increase and also place further pressures on the environment. Challenges such as air pollution, transport congestion, management of waste and water will be magnified. We have a dilemma because agriculture not only contributes to climate change but will also be very seriously affected by it. Agriculture and land use change is already responsible for 24% of the world’s emissions. In Ireland agriculture alone is responsible for 32% of national emissions. This figure reflects the huge importance of agriculture to the Irish economy and the significance of the livestock industry. On the other hand the forest sector, through afforestation, the use of forest-based biomass and wood products offers considerable scope for climate change mitigation and has a role to play in adaptation measures such as reducing flood risks. The IPCC 5th Assessment report released in spring 2014, illustrated that agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) is responsible for 24% (10–12 GtCO2eq/year of man-made GHG emissions in 2010) of the world’s emissionsii. In Ireland agriculture alone is responsible for 32% of national emissions. This figure reflects the huge importance of agriculture to the Irish economy and the significance of the livestock industry. On the other hand the forest sector, through afforestation, the use of forest-based biomass and wood products offers considerable scope for climate change mitigation and has a role to play in adaptation measures such as reducing flood risks. Mitigation means reducing the extent of future climate change by limiting the amount of greenhouse gases being emitted, and by increasing the rate of removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. To reduce the impacts of climate change we need to develop robust mitigation strategies. This document will look at how we will evaluate options that can lower our emissions and deliver a low carbon future. It will form part of an overall national mitigation plan that will 7 prioritise the key measures to be endorsed by Government. Adaptation measures will also be needed to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in Ireland. Figure 1.1 Adaptation and Mitigation Adaptation means learning to live with some climate change. It means protecting ourselves against negative impacts, and taking advantage of more positive aspects of climate change for some sectors Mitigation means minimising the extent of future climate change by reducing the amount of greenhouse gases being emitted, and by maximising our ability to remove CO2 from the atmosphere 1.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profile for the Agriculture Sector The land area of Ireland is 6.9 million hectares, of which 4.5 million hectares or about 65% of total land area is used for agriculture and 730,000 hectares or about 11% of total area for forestry. Some 81% of agricultural land is devoted to grass (silage, hay and pasture), 11% to rough grazing (0.47 million hectares) and 8% to crops, fruit and horticulture production (0.38 million hectares). Beef and milk production currently account for 70% of agricultural output at producer prices (excluding) forage. Ireland’s livestock numbers in June 2013 included 6.903 million cattle, 5.111 million sheep and 1.552 million pigs. Methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N2O) make up the majority of Irish agricultural GHG emissions, mainly due to the dominance of cattle and sheep livestock production in Irish agricultural output. Methane emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management are dependent on the type and number of livestock and, in Ireland’s case, the amounts are largely determined by a large cattle population. Cattle accounted for 88.7 % of methane emissions in 2011. The emissions of N2O from agriculture follow similar trends to those of methane. The greatest extent of N2O emissions on Irish grassland arises from applications of fertiliser N and animal slurries, N deposited by grazing animals and from N released from soil organic N (mineralisation). N2O contributes up to 38% of Ireland’s agricultural GHG emissions. Crops contribute very little to N2O emissions in Ireland and the amount fluctuates annually in response to varying production of the relevant crops.iii 8 Figure 1.2 Distribution of Irish agriculture emissions Ent Fermentation Cattle 38% 44% Ent Fermentation Other Manure Mgmt Ag Soils - Direct 14% 4% Emissions from agriculture reached a peak in 1998 and have decreased to below their 1990 level since 2004 reflecting long term decline in livestock populations and in fertiliser use due to the Common Agricultural Policy. Emissions from agriculture in 2012 are now 8.4% below their 1990 levels. The increase in agriculture emissions in 2012 represents the first significant increase over the 13 year period since 1999. This increase is underpinned by increasing animal numbers with dairy cows 2.3% higher in 2012 compared to 2011. This reflects national plans to expand milk production under Food Harvest 2020 and following removal of milk quota in 2014.iv The overall reduction since 1999 is due in large part to a reduction in cattle numbers, and also to a number of other factors including participation in the Common Agricultural Policy and other measures such as Rural Environmental Protection Scheme, Agriculture Environmental Options Scheme, Organic Scheme, supports for manure management in line with the EU Nitrates Directive, the afforestation scheme and through development of renewable energy resources. Figure 1.3 Irish Agriculture GHG emissions v total cattle numbers 1990 - 2012 Total cattle 7800 7600 7400 7200 7000 6800 6600 6400 6200 6000 22000 21000 20000 19000 18000 17000 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 16000 1990 Ag GHG emissions, Kg CO2e 23000 Total cattle numbers '000 Agriculture GHG 9 2. Background context 2.1 The UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions feed into the atmosphere alongside the emissions of other countries, and as such, add to the global issue of climate change. The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the framework for international policy development on actions to address climate change through mitigation and adaptation. Its objective is to avoid dangerous climate change by stabilising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. It also has a long term goal to keep the global temperature increase below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to pre-industrial temperatures. This requires major reductions in GHG emissions of up to 70% globally by 2050 relative to 2010 levels. Developed countries including Ireland are expected to lead by achievement greater reductions of up to 80% by 2050. The UNFCCC is most well-known for the Kyoto Protocol agreed in 1997, in which developed countries took the lead in agreeing to collectively reduce their emissions relative to 1990 levels. The Kyoto Protocol commits countries which have signed up to the protocol by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets. The Irish Government is legally responsible1 for achieving the commitments agreed for emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. For Ireland, as part of the European Commission burden sharing agreement, the target was to limit GHG emissions to 13% above the baseline2 1990 levels in the period 2008-2012. For this period developed countries that ratified the Kyoto Protocol agreed to reduce their emissions of a basket of greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. The main gases are listed in figure 2.1 while the other gases are listed below3. Ireland’s limit in relation to the Kyoto Protocol was set as 314.18 Mt CO2eq for the five-year commitment period 2008-2012. By 2012, Ireland was 5.68 Mt CO2eq below the Kyoto limit, however, when the impact of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and forest sinks are taken into account, Ireland exceeded the Kyoto limit by 2.1 Mt CO2eq. The Doha Amendment agreed by the UNFCCC conference in December 2012, comprises a number of amendments to the Kyoto Protocol and established a second commitment period with legallybinding emission reduction commitments for the years 2013–2020. Accounting and compliance with the Doha Agreement includes emissions and removals from land use, land-use change and forestry. Once adopted by the Council, the proposed ratification decision would enable the EU's 1 Ireland ratified the Kyoto Protocol on 31 May 2002, along with the EU and all other Member States. The Kyoto Protocol separates countries into two groups. Annex I includes developed nations, while Non-Annex I refers to developing countries. Emission limitations are only placed on Annex I countries. Non-Annex I nations participate by investing in projects that lower emissions in their own countries. For these projects, they earn CO2e credits. These credits can be traded or sold to Annex I countries, which allow them a higher level of maximum CO2 emissions for that period. 2 This is the sum of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions in 1990 and the contribution from fluorinated gases in 1995. 3 Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC’s), Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF₆), Perfluorocarbons (PFC’s), and Nitrogen Trifluoride (NF₃) an additional gas under the 2nd commitment period. 10 legally-binding commitments for the second commitment period to enter into force in international law. Each Member State will also need to ratify the Doha Amendment on its own behalf. Figure 2.1 - Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) (has a global warming potential of 21 times that of CO2 over a 100 year time horizon) (has a global warming potential of 310 times that of CO2) over a 100 year time horizon 2.2 Consideration of Metrics Emissions metrics facilitate multi-component climate policies by allowing emissions of different GHGs and other climate forcing agents to be expressed in a common unit (so called ‘CO2 equivalence emissions). The decision at international level to use GWP as the metric for comparison of the greenhouse gases included in the basket of gases under KP was made early in the process. At the time, a number of papers had expressed concern over the usefulness of the metric in the context of the stated goal of the UNFCCC. However, the scientific literature on alternative metrics was insufficient to propose their adoption. Since then, additional analysis has emerged on various metrics. The IPCC AR5 WG1 report presents findings from the analysis of these, including specific values for the most well developed, Global Temperature Potential, GTP, see Table 2.2. GTP explicitly relates the emission of a quantity of a greenhouse gas to its impact on global temperature, integrated over a defined period, relative to the emission of the same quantity of CO2. GTP evaluated over 100 years is similar to the GWP for long lived GHG species. However, there is a significant difference in the figure for methane. The table below, based on information in from the AR4 and AR5, shows the evolution of GWPs for methane and N2O in the IPCC assessment reports, and the AR5 estimate of GTPs for methane. Table 2.2 Evolution of GWP across IPCC assessment reports and GTP in AR5 GWP SAR AR4 AR5 AR5 GTP (100 year) GTP (50 year) CH4 N2O Biogenic Fossil Methane 21 25 28 30 310 298 265 Biogenic Fossil Methane Biogenic 4 6 14 234 282 11 Two specific aspects of the assessment are of note. The GTP over 100 years for methane is 5-7 times less than that the GWP 100 years values The IPCC have reported on analysis which differentiates between methane emissions from biogenic sources and those from fossil fuel (FF) and related industrial sources. The difference is marginal in the case of GWPs (biogenic 28, FF 30). However the difference is relatively larger for GTP (biogenic 4, FF 6). All metrics have shortcomings and choices contain value judgements such as the climate effect considered therefore no single metric is optimal for all policy goals. While for most metrics, global cost differences are small for mitigation strategies for some countries the implications could significantly affect the cost of mitigation (IPCC, AR5). 2.3. EU Climate and Energy Package 2008 The climate and energy package is a set of legislation which aims to ensure the European Union as a whole meets its ambitious climate and energy targets for 2020. These targets, known as the "20-2020" targets, set three key objectives for 2020: A 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions on 1990 levels; Raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable resources to 20%; A 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency. The Emissions trading sector (ETS) was launched in 2005 and sets out ambition for GHG emission reduction from EU’s largest installations, such as power stations, factories etc. The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD; 409/2009) sets out the targets to deliver reduced GHG emissions for the non Emissions Trading Sector (NETS). The NETS covers those sectors that are outside the EU ETS and includes agriculture, transport, residential and waste. In 2013 the second Kyoto Protocol commitment period commenced and signalled the first year of compliance with emissions targets under the EU 2008 Climate and Energy Package. While the EU average GHG reduction for the NETS is minus 10% with the balance of reductions being achieved by the emissions traded sector; Ireland was assigned a target of minus 20% for the NETS along with Denmark and Luxemburg. Other Member states were assigned targets below this, including growth allowances to plus 20% for poorer member states. This is a very challenging target for Ireland especially as agriculture is the largest sector for emissions in the NETS, and a high share of emissions from this sector is from agricultural livestock where there is limited availability of cost effective mitigation options. The national emission targets for each of the Member States for 2020 under the ESD are shown in table 2.2 below: 12 Figure 2.2 - GHG emission limits Member State GHG emission limits in 2020 compared to 2005 levels 9% 10% 11% 11% 13% 14% 15% 17% 19% 20% 30% 20% 1% 4% 5% 10% -20% -20% -20% -20% -17% -16% -16% -16% -16% -15% -14% -14% -13% -10% -10% -10% -5% -4% 0% LU DK IE SE AT FL NL UK BE DE FR IT ES CY GR PT SI MT CZ HU EE HR SK PL LT LV RO BG EU28 -30% Ireland’s target under the renewable energy directive component of the climate and energy package 2008 is to obtain 16% of our energy from renewable source such as follows: 40% renewable electricity 12% renewable heat 10% renewable transport Responsibility for ensuring these targets are met is a matter for the Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources (DCENR) in the first instance. Projections published by the EPA in 2014 suggest that Ireland will exceed its binding annual limit for non-ETS emissions by the years 2016 - 2017 and will exceed its target for the 2013 to 2020 period cumulatively by somewhere between 1 to 17 million tonnes of CO2 equivalentsv, depending on the assumptions used, unless measures and policies are introduced to reduce the gap. In the event that Ireland fails to meets its ESD targets, flexibilities are provided for, but they will come at a cost to the Irish Exchequer. 2.4. Proposed 2030 Climate and Energy Policy Framework In January 2014, the European Commission brought forward a Communication on proposals for a 2030 policy framework for climate and energyvi. The framework presented seeks to drive continued progress towards the EU’s long-term objective of moving towards a low-carbon economy by 2050. The Communication proposes a new governance framework for climate and energy policy in the period to 2030 based on national plans which will be prepared by Member States. At the October Council conclusions, Europe's heads of State agreed the central piece of the framework which is the target to reduce EU domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below the 1990 level by 2030. It also agreed an objective of achieving a 27% improvement in energy efficiency and increasing the share of renewable energy to at least 27% of the EU's energy consumption by 13 2030 on the basis that an EU-level target is necessary to drive continued investment in the sector and improving the EU's energy trade balance and security of supply. Additionally, an important step forward was taken in developing a coherent policy on food security and climate change. Ireland has been a clear leader for some time at EU level in calling for recognition of the specific issues that arise in the agriculture and forestry sector in relation to policy on climate change mitigation and adaptation. It was therefore a very positive result for the Taoiseach to have persuaded his colleagues to agree a statement on agriculture and forestry, which Ireland largely drafted, in their Conclusions on the EU’s Climate and Energy Framework to 2030. The Council of Ministers has recognised that “the multiple objectives of the agriculture and land use sector, with their lower mitigation potential, should be acknowledged, as well as the need to ensure coherence between the EU's food security and climate change objectives”. The Council also invited the Commission to: “examine the best means of encouraging the sustainable intensification of food production, while optimising the sector's contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation and sequestration, including through afforestation”. The conclusions commit the European Commission to examining how to encourage the sustainable intensification of food production, and noted the role afforestation can play in carbon sequestration. This is very important for Ireland as we are leading the world in some of our climate change actions, including carbon foot printing our farmers, and we are building further on this in the measures in our new Rural Development Programme 2014-2020. In addition afforestation is a major GHG mitigation measure that we are taking on agricultural land and it is essential that the EU’s GHG accounting system should take the value of afforestation fully into account in the future in order to encourage this real and additional mitigation. It is possible that the development of an Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) pillar would allow Member States to take a holistic approach to agriculture and land use policies but our essential point is that LULUCF and agriculture should be treated together in terms of mitigation potential and accounting; to achieve the following three objectives; Encourage sustainable land management and forest product uses that contribute to climate change mitigation and retain and enhance soil and forest carbon stocks; and Strongly promote sustainable intensification of food production to reduce the carbon intensity of food production and to contribute to both food security and greenhouse gas mitigation objectives. Seek to move as far along the road to carbon neutrality as is possible in cost-effective terms, while not compromising our capacity for sustainable food production. A coherent approach to agriculture and land use would be consistent with an approach to carbon neutrality for the agriculture and land use sectors including afforestation which does not compromise food production as proposed in the draft low carbon development bill. 14 2.5 The National Policy Position The National Policy Position was published by the Minister of Environment, Community and Local Government on 23rd April 2014. It brings clarity and certainty to the national low-carbon transition objective for 2050. National climate policy in Ireland – recognises the threat of climate change for humanity; anticipates and supports mobilisation of a comprehensive international response to climate change, and global transition to a low-carbon future; recognises the challenges and opportunities of the broad transition agenda for society; and aims, as a fundamental national objective, to achieve transition to a competitive, lowcarbon, climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by 2050. The evolution of climate policy in Ireland will be an iterative process, based on the adoption by Government of a series of national plans over the period to 2050. Greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation to the impacts of climate change will be addressed in parallel national plans – respectively through National Low-Carbon Roadmaps and National Climate Change Adaptation Frameworks. The low-carbon roadmapping process will be guided by a long-term vision of low-carbon transition based on – an aggregate reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of at least 80% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2050 across the electricity generation, built environment and transport sectors; and in parallel, an approach to carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land-use sector, including forestry, which does not compromise capacity for sustainable food production. 2.6 The Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill In 2014 the Irish Government approved a General Scheme of a Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill which provides for the preparation of a national mitigation plan to articulate a national vision for the transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy over the period to 2050. This Bill was published on 19th January 2015. The agriculture and forestry sectoral mitigation plan is informed (inter alia) by work carried out by National Economic and Social Council (NESC)vii and Teagasc viii,ix,x, and will reflect EU Council conclusions on the Climate and Energy Framework 2030. 2.7 Scope of the national mitigation plan The essence of the NESC proposed approach is to achieve transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy in the period up to and including 2050. The 15 report sets out the NESC vision that Ireland will be a carbon-neutral society by 2050, based on an approach to economic development that is socially and environmentally sustainable. See Figure 2.3 below: Figure 2.3 Vision Vision for a carbon-neutral Ireland Our Approach Way of thinking and guiding principles Three Tracks Strategic and Institutional Exploration and Experimentation Design and Implementation There are five strategic building blocks identified and one relates to agriculture: Towards Carbon-Neutral agriculture: “A world class agri-food sector working within a carbon-neutral system of agriculture, forestry and land-use. Ireland must become a world leader in the production, management and marketing of low-carbon, high quality, sustainable food. This can be achieved by pushing scientific research and probing farming practice to identify further means of reducing emissions. It needs to be complemented by work within agrifood, forestry and marine sectors that identifies, assesses and develops the carbon sink or offsetting potential associated with land-use change and forestry” 2.8 Challenges for the sectors 2.8.1 Agriculture: Climate change poses a major challenge for the agricultural industry, and many farmers now understand the contribution of agriculture or forestry to climate change or the consequences and impact that it will have on their business. The OECD (2012) estimates that by 2050, the world population will reach 9 billion (approximately 7 billion currently), 70% of whom will live in urban areas. This population level will increase the demand for food and productivity per hectare and also place further pressures on the environment. The OECD estimates that by 2050; energy usage will be 80% higher than 2010; global water demand will have increased by 55%; and there will be increased pressure on agricultural and forest land. Unlike other sectors such as energy and transport, global mitigation in agriculture cannot be addressed through one‐off technological fixes. Mitigation in agriculture will require the sustained application of processes or management practices by millions of individual farmers. In order to be 16 effective in the long term, food production, food security and mitigation objectives must be complementary and support or enhance each other viii. The agriculture sector faces the challenges of reducing GHG emissions while responding to an increased need for food from a growing global population and rising affluence. Farming involves complex natural cycles and there are technical barriers and physical limitations to further emission reductions. Dairy and beef production in Ireland is highly efficient and the volume of production is such that substantial emissions reductions have already been achieved by improvements in farm practices such as manure management, energy use, improved breeding and grassland management. The continued reduction potential is limited; however efforts are continually being made to reduce emissions even further. In 2013, agriculture accounted for 32% of total national emissions. Among developed nations, only New Zealand has a higher proportion of total GHG emissions associated with agriculture. Figure 2.4 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland 2012 Industry & Commercial, 14.70% Manure management, 4.49% Residential, 10.70% Energy , 21.90% Agriculture 32.10% Manures and fertilizer, 12.20% Enteric Fermintation, 15.41% Waste, 1.80% Transport, 18.80% Under the EU Commission’s 2008 Climate and Energy Package, Ireland is required to deliver a very challenging 20% reduction in non-Emissions Trading Scheme greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (relative to 2005 levels). In addition, Ireland also has binding annual emission limits for the period 2013-2020 to ensure a gradual move towards the 2020 target. The key contributors to emissions in the non-ETS sectors are transport and agriculture. In a With Measure4 (WM) total scenario, NETS emissions are projected to fall by 3.4% between 2005 and 2020, while in the With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario emissions are projected to fall by 4 In EPA projections, the With Measures (WM) scenario incorporates the estimated impact of all policies and measures in place and legislatively provided for. It assumes that the projected impact on emissions of FH2020 is included and assumes that the Landfill Directive (1999/31/EC) targets are achieved. The With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario is based on existing plus planned policies. As well as the above it assumes that all 17 11.3% in the same period. In contrast, agriculture emissions are projected to grow on an annual basis to 2020 which reflects the impact of Food Harvest 2020 which reflects the projected increase in food production following the removal of milk quotas which Food Harvest 2020 is based upon. For the period 2013-2020, total emissions from agriculture are projected to increase by 9%v or approx 3% above 2005 levels. See figure 2.5 below. Data provided to NESC by the EPA, April 2012: Figure 2.5: Non-ETS Emissions 2005-2020 (Mt CO2 Eq) 49 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 With Measures Scenario Non-ETS With Additional Measures Scenario Non-ETS Annual Limits 2.8.2 Forestry: These projections do not take into account the significant impact of forests in absorbing carbon or the role of wood and wood products in replacing more energy intensive materials. Forest sinks are not included in the ESD for the 2013-2020 accounting period but, if they were, and assuming the accounting modalities that apply under the Kyoto Protocol, then Ireland’s measured non-ETS emissions would fall by a projected 11.1% between 2005 and 2020 in the WM scenario and by 19.2% under WAM. Irish forests are both a significant store and sink of carbon. In 2012 the estimated overall carbon store in Irish forests was 381 million tonnes. By far the largest component was soil carbon (324 million tonnes), mainly a reflection of past afforestation, Irish Forests are also a significant sink of carbon dioxide. New forests planted since 1990 (afforestation) removed a net 16.98 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere over the period 2008-2012. 2.8.3 Renewable Energy: In relation to renewable energy, achieving the anticipated renewable energy usage in the three energy sectors will be challenging; the 12% renewable heat target particularly so. The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) estimates that the shortfall will be in the region of 2 to 4%. This the targets set in the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan and National Renewal Energy Action Plan are fully achieved. 18 represents about 1% to 2% in terms of the overall national renewable energy target of 16%, mandated to Ireland under the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive. Despite increases in recent years there are still relatively low levels of production of renewable energy and use overall in Ireland. Analysis by the SEAI indicates that approximately 1,000 ktoe 5 of bioenergy will be required to meet the country’s 2020 renewable energy targets. Of this, heating will require 475 ktoe, transport 370ktoe, with the remaining 155 ktoe required for electricity. The extent to which there will be development of domestic resources to meet demand will be dependent on the price of biomass. The analysis shows current market prices range up to about €250/toe depending on the resource and that a price of €420/toe could bring 850 ktoe of domestically sourced bioenergy, which would be mainly suitable for use in the electricity and heat sectors, to market by 2020. The analysis further suggests that, depending on the price of biomass, there could be up to 3,000 ktoe of domestically sourced biomass available by 2030 if the barriers to its mobilisation can be addressed. The sustainability of biomass will continue to be a critical consideration in the development of bioenergy policy. The EU proposal to address the potential impact of Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC), caused by certain categories of biofuel, will make the achievement of the renewable transport target more challenging. The proposal seeks to shift the focus away from first generation biofuels (from oils and sugar) and encourage future investment in advanced biofuels such as municipal waste and agricultural residues that do not compete directly with food and feed crops. Fossil decarbonisation - As suggested in the recent IPCC AR5 report, scenarios that are most likely to keep temperature change below 2oC are dependent on the scale and uptake of bioenergy, carbon capture and storage. Therefore the expansion of the bioenergy sector, which is also closely linked to the Agriculture, Forestry & Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, and the management of land resources to accommodate it, in the context of food security, is likely to be an increasing feature of the overall policy in this area. It should be noted that bioenergy will require at least equivalent approaches to sustainable land management as food production. Although both food security and bioenergy (security) are based on the land resource, the dynamic can be complementary. Both activities should provide positive environmental and development returns to rural communities. Therefore future ambition for the agriculture and land use sectors must be structured so as to ensure that food & bioenergy production is allowed to sustainably expand to meet global demand, and must focus on improving agricultural resilience, productivity and resource efficiency, while simultaneously encouraging good carbon land management practices in order to optimise/maximise the mitigation potential of the land sector. DAFM fully recognises the importance of continued research and the need to realise even greater efficiencies at farm level. Teagasc has collated outcomes of its research and knowledge transfer programmes on GHG emissions into a Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Irish Agriculture (MACC) 5 ktoe: Kilo tonnes of oil equivalent (i.e. a thousand tonnes of oil equivalent) 19 in April 2012. In this document we have used the opportunities for abatement and specific mitigation measures contained in the MACC analysis to show how research is being converted into policy decision and then into measures at farm level to deliver results. 2.9 EPA Reporting The EPA compiles Ireland's annual greenhouse gas emission inventories and projections. This allows the Government to assess progress in terms of meeting key targets, such as the Kyoto Protocol limitation target, and to inform policy development in terms of developing appropriate mitigation measures. The EPA compiles Ireland's national greenhouse gas emission inventory on an annual basis. This inventory is submitted to the European Commission and UNFCCC each year by March 15th and April 15th respectively. The EPA also develops national emission projections on an annual basis, in collaboration with relevant State and other bodies. This collaboration ensures consistency with economic forecasts and with projected activity in sectors including energy, agriculture, and industry. The National Climate Change Strategy (2007) designated the EPA with responsibility for developing national emission projections for greenhouse gases for all key sectors of the economy. 2.10 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) for Irish Agriculture 2. 10.1. Abatement potential for agriculture The Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) ix for Irish Agriculture April 2012 quantified the current opportunities for abatement of agricultural greenhouse gases, as well as the associated costs and benefits. The analysis provides clarity on the extent of GHG abatement that can be delivered through incentivisation of cost-effective agricultural mitigation measures, as well as clarity on which mitigation measures are likely to be cost-prohibitive. The following measures were identified: Improving the genetic merit of the dairy herd Higher daily weight gain in beef cattle Extended grazing season Manure management Other gains in nitrogen efficiency (includes use of clover) Use of nitrification Inhibitors Minimum tillage techniques Increased use of cover crops Bio-fuel and bio-energy crops Anaerobic digestion of pig slurry The analyses underpinning the MACC curve followed a dual methodology. Life Cycle Analysis was used to assess the potential for “real” global reductions in GHG emissions associated with each potential mitigation measure adopted in Ireland while simultaneously, the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was used to quantify the proportion of reductions that would be measured and recorded in the National GHG Emissions Inventory, and credited to the agricultural sector in Ireland. 20 The MACC based on IPCC analysis is presented visually in Figure 2.6. The green measures relate to increased efficiency, which are cost‐beneficial (efficiency gains which reduce the carbon footprint but also reduce overall costs). The yellow measures relate to land use change and are generally cost‐neutral or slightly beneficial. The blue measures relate to technology interventions that have associated costs. Figure 2.6 Source: Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) – 2012 Using the IPCC methodology, Teagasc found that there is the potential to cost beneficially reduce emissions by 1.1 Mt CO2eq per annum. The price of international carbon credits was assumed to be €33 per tonne CO2eq, adapted from the Energy Forecasts for Ireland to 2020 (2011 Report) by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (Clancy & Scheer, 2011). Most of the cost-beneficial mitigation measures that have potential to deliver the 1.1 Mt CO2eq of reported emission reductions are measures associated with increased production efficiencies, i.e. measures that maximise output of produce per unit of farm input. Realisation of these reductions requires a concerted effort from farmer stakeholders, advisory services, research institutes, policy stakeholders and the agri-food industry. 2.10.2. Abatement potential from farm afforestation The current opportunities for abatement through carbon sequestration and through fossil fuel substitution are also analysed. Two scenarios were used to calculate the abatement cost per tonne of CO2eq for afforestation over and above an assumed baseline level of 8,000 ha per annum (the average planting rate for 2008-2010). The analysis also includes the increase in grants and premium payments that would be payable to forest owners for any afforestation over and above 80,000 per annum. This is covered in more detail in the forestry section of this discussion document 21 Figure 2.7 : Marginal abatement cost of afforestation under three planting scenarios and two productivity levels. Scenario Planting rate Total sequestered carbon Increase over baseline Energy savings (fossil fuel displacement) Increase over baseline Ha yr -1 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Baseline 8,000 5.3 - Normal Production Medium High 16,000 20,000 7.0 8.2 1.7 2.9 High Production Medium High 16,000 20,000 7.7 9.5 2.4 4.2 0.6 5.9 1.2 0.6 8.2 1.5 0.9 9.7 1.6 1.0 9.3 1.9 1.4 11.4 Total sequestration & energy savings Increase over baseline Total premium payments Increase over baseline Mt CO2 Mt CO2 - 2.3 3.8 3.4 5.6 M€ M€ 69.4 - 138.9 69.4 173.6 104.2 138.9 69.4 173.6 104.2 Total grant payments Increase over baseline Marginal abatement cost M€ M€ €t-1CO2eq 28.0 56.0 28.0 42.7 70.0 42.0 38.7 56.0 28.0 28.9 70.0 42.0 26.3 Source: CARBWARE (Hendrick & Black, 2009 and calculations by authors of MACC Schulte & Donnellan (2012) This table shows that the potential carbon sequestration and energy savings range from 2.3 Mt CO2 to 5.6 Mt CO2, and associated abatement costs range from €26.30 to €42.70 per tonne of CO2eq. 22 3. Mitigation and the Agriculture Sector 3.1 Introduction The agri-food6 sector is one of Ireland’s most important indigenous manufacturing industries., employing in the region of 50,000 people directly, as well as providing the primary outlet for the produce of 128,000 family farms. These jobs are dispersed throughout all regions of Ireland, especially rural areas. Nationally, it plays a key role in ensuring Ireland’s export-led economic recovery while it also provides the foundation for sustainable rural development. At a European level, the unique national importance and scale of this sector relative to the rest of the economy is recognised. In 2013, the agri-food sector accounted for over 7% of national Gross Value Added and 23% of national industry turnover. More than any other industry, much of the economic benefits in the agri-food sector, both direct and indirect, are dispersed throughout the country making it particularly important to rural areas. Figure 3.1: Employment in the Agri-Food Sector (000s) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, 103.4 Based on CSO Data (Q2 2013) Beverages, 5.5 Wood Processing, 5.4 Food, 46.1 The export driven agri-food sector is playing a significant and growing role in national economic development. Its national economic significance is enhanced by its use of indigenous raw material, its low profit repatriation, its export orientation and high level of economic expenditure particularly in the rural economy. There is also a well developed strategic plan for future growth and development in the industry-led Food Harvest 2020 report (FH2020). This has set a number of targets to be achieved by 2020 and has in place a cohesive and effective high level implementation process to coordinate the State role. 6 Agri-food sector is taken to include primary production (Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry) along with Food, Beverages & Tobacco (grouped together in National Income classification) and wood processing sectors 23 There is a strong case for allowing the agri-food sector to continue on its successful development path as it continues to make a significant contribution to economic development of the State, and in the case of forestry it makes a significant contribution to climate change mitigation. The European Commission’s JRC Report of 2010 “Evaluation of the livestock sector's contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions (GGELS)xi” recognised that: Ireland (with Austria) had the lowest cow milk emissions (1 kg per kg of product). This compares with an EU average of 1.4kg/kg (p29) Ireland had the lowest emissions per kg of pork (4.8 kg/kg) – EU average 7.5kg/kg (p171) Ireland’s emissions per kg of beef were 18.4 kg/kg – EU Average 22.2kg/kg (p29/30) Therefore it should be emphasised that the Irish agriculture sector has not been complacent in its response to climate action and has succeeded in achieving improvements to emissions intensity. Emissions intensity per calorie of food output in 2013 is reduced approx 14% relative to 2005 and early estimates project that the BAU 2030 emission intensity will be a quarter below the emission intensity in 2005. The Teagasc MACCix has identified 1.1 Mt CO2 abatement potential by 2020 and the Teagasc report on a vision of carbon neutrality7 have been key to informing this discussion. 3.2 Key Policies and Drivers for the Agriculture Sector A.1 Food Harvest 2020 The Food Harvest 2020 Reportxii, offers a vision of the future for the agriculture sector. Food Harvest 2020 foresees a sector that acts ‘smartly’ to achieve a competitive critical mass in the international marketplace and targets those consumers in key markets who recognise and reward Ireland’s food producers for their ‘green’ output. This would require: The adoption of new technologies at primary producer level; Developing new working relationships within the food production chain; Piloting new product streams; Targeting resources at new markets; Enhancing levels of productivity and competitiveness; and, Developing production and management skills across the sector. This is to be achieved by investment in ideas, knowledge and skills, and recognising that collaboration across the food supply chain, with other competitors and, broadly, within the framework of the smart economy, is central to unlocking opportunities. 24 The compelling vision is of efficient, environmentally sustainable production that delivers significant growth benefiting primary producers, processors and the food-manufacturing sector. The growth targets are to increase, by 2020: The value of primary output by €1.5 billion; Value-added outputs by €3 billion; and Exports to €12 billion, representing growth of 42% over the period 2007-09. In 2010 these proposals were seen as ambitious targets but by the end of 2013 the following have been achieved: The value of Primary Output is already more than three-quarters of the way to its FH2020 target The value of cattle output has already exceeded its Food Harvest 2020 target The value of milk output has already grown by a quarter, before post-quota expansion The value of pig output is already more than four fifths of the way to its Food Harvest 2020 target The value of sheep output has already almost reached its Food Harvest 2020 target The value of Beef exports has already exceeded its Food Harvest 2020 target The value of Pigmeat exports has already exceeded its Food Harvest 2020 target The value of Sheepmeat exports is already close to reaching its Food Harvest 2020 target The value of Seafood exports has already exceeded its Food Harvest 2020 target The value of Dairy Produce & Ingredients exports is already almost half way to its FH2020 target The value of Food & Beverage GVA is already half way to its Food Harvest 2020 target The dairy sector was the only one for which a specific volume increase (of 50% by 2020) was projected in the light of the ending of EU milk quotas in 2015. Dairy cow numbers are expected to increase from about 1.1 to 1.4 million, which is almost a 28% increasexiii. This increase in dairy cows is likely to be partly offset by a decrease in suckler cows. As a result the increase in total cow numbers is likely to be ‘limited’. A.2 The Food Harvest 2020 Environmental Analysis Report. This analysis was commissioned by the Department of Agriculture, Food land the Marine (DAFM) in response to a recommendation contained in FH2020 that a Strategic Environmental Analysis be carried out on the proposals in that report. The purpose of the study is to inform policy makers of any likely environmental consequences affecting biodiversity, flora and fauna, water quality, air quality, landscape and climate change including greenhouse gases. The analysis reportxiv, published in January 2014, considers alternative scenarios to the achievement of the primary production targets set out in FH2020 and presents the likely significant effects on the environment of its implementation. At a sectoral level, three alternative scenarios were analysed: a low intensity system; a high intensification system; and 25 a system based on best knowledge and technology. The authors of the report recognise that the concept of increased agricultural output and improved environmental outcomes is sometimes seen as counterintuitive, but it is one that is being embraced by DAFM. This report should prove valuable in informing the potential interaction between the industry vision in FH2020 and important national strategies. Within the report the large contribution of the agriculture sector relating to targets for conservation, water quality, air quality and climate change is recognised, and the key agricultural pressures from agricultural practices are identified, assessments are made of the likely impacts and suitable mitigation measures are proposed. The table in Figure 3.3 below summarises the pre-mitigation findings of the report. Figure 3.3: Table of Conclusions of FH2020 Environmental Analysis Report Environmental Characteristics Pre-Mitigation Impact Biodiversity & Flora/Fauna Slight Negative Water Quality Slight Negative Soils Neutral/Imperceptible Air Quality Slight Negative Landscape Neutral/Imperceptible Climatic Factors Slight Negative Post-Mitigation Impact Negative impact can be reversed and rendered neutral in most cases* and lead to environmental gains in other cases *Note: As noted, the risk of more localised or regional impacts on biodiversity and water quality exists. Continuing monitoring in areas of known vulnerability is recommended through the expansion of the agricultural catchments and other monitoring programmes. This will indicate where high level mitigation proposals need to be supplemented by the development of detailed farm and regional level mitigation measures throughout the life of Food Harvest 2020. The recommendations made in this comprehensive report are already helping to inform policy development including the draft Rural Development Programme 2014 to 2020 and are also reflected in this document. B Common Agricultural Policy Reform 2014-2020 The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the main driver for agricultural policy across the European Union Member States (see figure 3.2 below). The CAP is the main form of support for Irish farmers and it is delivered through two pillars. It provides a level of income security to farmers through Pillar One, as well as a framework for sustainable management of the natural environment in which agricultural activity takes place through Pillar Two. Historically, the CAP has seen the development by agricultural policies aimed at increasing food production and ensuring food security. The emergence of an understanding of the negative impacts that agriculture was having on the environment has been reflected in a series of reforms of the CAP. In 2005, the CAP was ‘health checked’ with a view to its modernisation and simplification. Direct 26 payments to farmers were reduced and the savings transferred to the Rural Development budget to enable Member States to respond to new challenges and opportunities and to reinforce programmes in the fields of climate change, renewable energy, water management, and biodiversity, as well as innovation linked to these four areas and for accompanying measures in the dairy sector. From 2015 onwards, the CAP introduces a new policy instrument in Pillar 1, the Green Direct Payment. This accounts for 30% of the national direct payment envelope and rewards farmers for respecting three obligatory agricultural practices, namely maintenance of permanent grassland, ecological focus areas and crop diversification. As the green direct payment is compulsory, it has the advantage of introducing practices that are beneficial for the environment and climate on most of the utilised agricultural area. Building on these compulsory elements, under pillar 2 the rural development programme (RDP 2014-2020) continues to play a pivotal role in achieving the CAP’s environmental objectives and in combating climate change. The focus of the second pillar on sustainability is clearly visible by the fact that at least 30% of the budget of each Rural Development Programme must be reserved for voluntary measures that are beneficial for the environment and 20% cross-cutting climate change. These include agri-environmental climate measures, organic farming, areas of natural constraints, Natura 2000 areas, forestry measures and investments which are beneficial for the environment or climate. C. The Bioenergy Plan Over the last year DAFM has worked closely with the Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources in developing the recently published draft Bioenergy Plan. The plan sets out the broader context for the development of energy from biomass, and the current status with regard to the range of policy areas that must be coordinated in order to create the conditions necessary to support the sustainable development of this sector. The plan also identifies the necessary next steps to be taken by various government departments, agencies and State bodies in this regard. It takes account of the various strands of bioenergy that are dealt with within DAFM, with a view to maximising their potential contribution to achieving renewable energy targets for 2020 and beyond. The development of the bioenergy sector can lead to both economic and environmental benefits and will contributing to reaching our renewable energy targets. The SEAI and the Irish BioEnergy Association commissioned report - Economic Benefits from the Development of BioEnergy in Ireland to meet 2020 Targets - recognises that the cost-effective harnessing of the potential of sustainable, indigenous, renewable energy resources is crucial, among other things, to reducing our dependence on imported fossil fuels and reducing harmful emissions. Advanced biofuels In October 2012 the Commission proposed limiting the amount of food-based biofuels that can be counted towards the EU's target of reaching a 10% share of renewable energy in the transport sector by 2020, with a view to mitigating indirect land-use change emissions. The proposal also contained a number of measures to incentivise the use of non-food based biofuels in meeting the 10% target. The aim is to promote biofuels that help achieve substantial emission cuts, do not 27 directly compete with food and are more sustainable at the same time. Advanced biofuels, (also referred to as second and third-generation biofuels) such as those made from wastes and residues, non-food crops and algae, provide high greenhouse gas savings with low risk of causing indirect land use change and do not compete directly for agricultural land for the food and feed markets. The EU Energy Council reached a political agreement on the draft directive in June. The agreed text included a recommendation for a cap of 7 % on food based biofuels. Deliberations in relation to this proposal are continuing, the outcome of which will need to be considered in future policy development. 3.3 Agriculture Sector Mitigation Action Plan 3.3.1 Agriculture Sector Mitigation Actions up to 2020 Introduction As mentioned above at Policy Drivers, The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has made an increasingly significant contribution to the environmental sustainability of the European agri-food sector in recent years. A critical consideration in national climate change policy is to balance the environmental objective of greenhouse gas emissions reductions with the economic and social objective of promoting the sustainable development of a rural economy, which maintains the maximum number of farm families and rural households, as well as diversifying activities and income streams through measures such as afforestation. The positive contribution of agriculture policy to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing levels of carbon sequestration is an important element of Ireland’s response to its greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for the purposes of the Kyoto Protocol. The challenge is to ensure that there is clear coherence with the smart, green, growth message of Food Harvest 2020. Climate change will affect, directly or indirectly, all of the important benefits that agricultural land provides to society. Agricultural systems and the ecosystem services they provide are very vulnerable to changes in climate and are among the first to feel the effects. Many of the likely pressures are not new but will be exacerbated and accelerated by climate change. The effects will be felt differently, and over different timescales, in different regions of the country and by different agricultural sectors. Therefore action to ensure agriculture can build resilience and adapt, now and in the future, is crucial, and sustainable adaptation by agricultural systems will be a key part of our overall national response to climate change. Rural Development Programme (RDP) 2014-2020 The Rural Development Programme (RDP), 2014-2020 will be a key support in enhancing the competitiveness of the agri-food sector, achieving more sustainable management of natural resources and ensuring a more balanced development of rural areas. Regulation (EU) No 1305/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council on support for Rural Development by the European 28 Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) sets out the breakdown of EU support for rural development for each EU Member State for the years 2014 – 2020. Ireland’s total EAFRD allocation for rural development is some €2.19 billion (or some €313 million per annum), as agreed at the Multi-annual Financial Framework negotiations in 2013. EU funding amounts are combined with national co-funding to provide for each Member State’s RDP. In Ireland’s case, National Exchequer funding brings the total to be spent on RDP schemes in the 2014-2020 period to over €4 billion. Annual costings for the RDP will be agreed in line with the roll out of schemes and the annual budgetary process. The new RDP 2014-2020 must contribute to the cross cutting themes of innovation, climate change and environment but it must also be linked with national policies. The changes are consistent with the smart green growth objectives of Food Harvest 2020. CAP also has a role to play in facilitating mitigation by influencing farmers to adjust their production to the changing climatic situation and to provide wider ecosystem services which are dependent on land management. The Mitigation Action Plan will focus on 1. Improving the environmental impact of agriculture as a provider of agri-environment climate measures through the measures in the Rural Development Programme 2014-2020. 2. Improving the uptake of mitigation practices by farmers through knowledge transfer groups, targeted training, the European Innovation Partnership, Origin Green and Advisory Services 3. Increasing the level of forest cover and use of wood products and fuels 4. Enhancing research on agriculture and climate change mitigation DAFM also welcomes the progress being made across different sectors in developing guidance for farmers on practical steps to reduce emissions and other environmental best practice. The Teagasc 2020 Roadmapsxv reflects the targets set out in the Government’s Food Harvest 2020 Report and outlines the direction each sector is expected to take, and the technical performance levels that can be achieved at farm level. The purpose of the Action Plan is to set out a framework for action in Ireland for the period 2014-2020 and a vision for 2050. The provision of Agri-Environment Climate Measures through the Rural Development Programme 2014-2020. (RDP) The Rural Development Regulation published by the European Commission was formally adopted on the 17th December 2013. It is a clear prerequisite of funding support that the RDP of each Member State take due account of the sustainable management of natural resources, and climate action. While the ‘greening’ of Pillar 1 in the new CAP (2014-2020) can potentially also contribute to achieving these environmental targets, Pillar 2 measures are required to encourage and assist 29 farmers to go beyond the Statutory and GAEC requirements of Pillar 1 and achieve more targeted objectives. In particular it is noted that 20% of the total RDP budget must be aimed at measures preserving and promoting the changes necessary in agricultural practices that make a positive contribution to climate action. The draft Irish RDP for the period 2014-2020 submitted to the EU Commission was informed by the findings and recommendations in the environmental analysis of FH2020 and the MACC reportix by Teagasc. Once approved the new RDP will be a key support to achieving more sustainable management of natural resources and climate action, enhancing the competitiveness of the agrifood sector, and ensuring a more balanced development of rural areas. The measures have been designed to support the Smart Green Growth message of Food Harvest 2020 and thus will encompass the themes of technology, efficiency and sustainability. The main elements of the RDP in terms of proposed measures are: A substantial new agri-environment/climate scheme, GLAS, which will build on the progress made under the previous agri-environment schemes, REPS and AEOS. For more information on this scheme see 3.3.2. 1. Green Low-Carbon Agri-Environment Scheme (GLAS) below. A new beef data and genomic technology measure. This scheme will have a range of benefits in terms of sustainability, profitability, animal health and welfare, quality assurance, and herd quality. Genomic technology, in which Ireland is a world leader, uses DNA finger printing to increase the efficiency of animal breeding programmes by identifying high performance at a very early stage. For more information on this scheme see 3.3.2. 2. Beef Data and Genomics Programme. Knowledge transfer and innovation measures including support for the European Innovation Partnership and continuous professional development of advisors. These knowledge transfer measures are aimed at underpinning farm viability, sustainability and growth through the adoption of best practice and innovative solutions. For more information see 3.3.2 3. Knowledge Transfer Measures Incentives for on-farm capital investment, which will incorporate support for investments with clear sustainability benefits such as investment in trailing shoe slurry spreading and Biomass expansion scheme. For more information on this scheme see 3.3.2. 4. Targeted Agricultural Modernisation Schemes II (TAMS II) Other supports are aimed at collaborative farming, artisan producers and organic farming. In particular the proposed Organic Farming Scheme promotes organic agriculture as an alternative farming system and will provide support for management practices that can help farmers to adapt and mitigate against the effects of climate change through enhancing ecosystems, diversifying crop and livestock production, and building farmers’ knowledge base to confront changes in climate. For more information on this see 3.3.2. 5. Organic Farming Scheme. 30 In particular it should be noted that the beef genomics and suite of knowledge transfer measures target the promotion of the cost beneficial mitigation options identified by the Teagasc MACC. This type of smart investment will ensure that we remain as efficient as possible in our production systems. Irish agriculture has already achieved significant progress in production efficiency including the use of fertiliser and manure, grassland management, improved breeding and better fertility. Essential ongoing research into new technologies is being undertaken to maintain our economic and environmental competitive advantages. The level of emissions from agriculture has been steadily decreasing in recent years and the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine will continue to work with state and industry stakeholders to seek greater future efficiencies in a sustainable Irish agriculture sector. B. Single Payment Scheme and Cross-Compliance Since 1 January, 2005 direct payments to farmers under the CAP have been fully decoupled from production, i.e. the level of CAP direct payments to farmers is now independent of the level of production of agricultural products. Applicants under the various direct payments schemes are required to comply with the requirements of cross compliance as detailed in EU governing regulations. Cross compliance requires farmers to comply with 18 statutory management requirements (SMRs) set down in EU legislation on the environment, (including the Nitrates Directive) food safety, animal health, welfare, and plant health, and a requirement to maintain the farm in good agricultural and environmental condition (GAEC). C. Origin Green Origin Green at farm level In June 2012 Origin Green was launched, a national sustainability development programme that is designed to help Ireland become a world leader in sustainably produced food and drink. At farm level since May 2011, over 43,000 members of Bord Bia’s Beef Quality Assurance Scheme members and 6,000 dairy farmers have participated in a sustainability survey, as part of their regular quality assurance farm audit. The sustainability survey includes a carbon audit and Ireland is the first country in the world to assess the footprint performance of farms on a national scale. Similar programmes are planned across for poultry production at both farm and processing level; for pigmeat and lamb production with a view to completing this work in the near future; and projects are also being planned for grain and horticulture. The rollout of the sustainability audit program including carbon audit is funded by DAFM, and commenced across all 43,000 beef farms that are members of the Beef & Lamb Quality Assurance Scheme (BLQAS) with a similar process now underway to 18,000 dairy farms through the Sustainable Dairy Assurance Programme (SDAS). The key focus of the programme is feedback and advice. The initial feedback focuses on informing the farmer how they performed and how the result compares with other similar farms. 31 Comparing results across farms Your Beef Enterprise Carbon footprint 0 2 4 6 8 10 This audit can be further built upon using the Carbon Navigator developed jointly by Teagasc and Bord Bia, where farmers can set targets for improvement in practical management areas and see the potential impact of achieving them on their farm’s footprint and financial performance. It is the intention that this carbon navigator will be used to focus advice under the knowledge transfer and beef genomic schemes in the draft RDP. 3.3.2 Outline of Mitigation Actions 1. Green Low-Carbon Agri-Environment Scheme (GLAS) Proposed new GLAS scheme introduced under the RDP (2014-2020) will build on the progress of previous agri-environment schemes and will deliver overarching benefits in terms of rural environment whilst addressing the issues of climate change mitigation, water quality and the preservation of priority habitats and species. The incorporation of core mandatory requirements and the focus on the farmer delivering actions that will provide the most environmental benefit on his/her farm will ensure that the optimum environmental impact is achieved. Central to its objective of environmental protection and conservation will be its application supported with the appropriate level of specialist knowledge. The Knowledge Transfer Measure of the RDP will play a key role in this regard. GLAS aims to work within the framework for environmental sustainability and the scheme will contribute to meeting Ireland’s objectives as set down by the EU Climate Change and Renewable Energy Package and the Kyoto Protocol. To this end, the advancement of low-carbon agriculture will form a central component of GLAS through the retention of soil carbon stocks and through the encouragement of climate friendly agricultural practices such as minimum tillage, green-cover establishment and low-emission manure spreading techniques. It is expected that 50,000 farmers will join GLAS in its first five years 2. Beef Data and Genomics Programme The new Beef Data and Genomics Programme is designed to build on the strong link between the sustainability of Irish beef production and maximising the contribution of Irish agriculture to national climate change initiatives. This programme will provide support to farmers to take samples for genotyping from selected animals in their herds and to provide vital breeding data to support the development of a national cattle breeding databank. This data will provide farmers with the tools to select higher quality and more efficient breeding replacements through the use of cutting edge genomic technology. The application of this technology on a national scale through investment in this programme aims to secure this technology’s adoption in the national suckler herd similar to its widespread adoption 32 in the national dairy herd. It supports efficiency gains which deliver benefits directly to the farmer in terms of output and financial return as well as to the environment as efficiency of production systems improve. Thus the targeted increased value of output will be achieved with a reduced suckler herd and less intensive resource inputs than is currently the case. This is predicted to result in a reduction in emissions to the environment, including a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions This initiative will help to place Ireland firmly to the forefront globally in beef genetics, enhance our reputation as a world leader in sustainable food production, increase the carbon efficiency of the sector, and from a marketing perspective, help to reinforce the uniqueness of our offering on EU and world markets. The collection of vital genetic information can also provide a building block for the development of a genetic traceability system which would be a global first, placing Ireland firmly in first place globally when it comes to consumer assurance and traceability. The benefits of this improved and increased infrastructure will be further reinforced when coupled with the Knowledge Transfer elements of the RDP which will assist farmers to be appropriately educated in key environmental matters such as understanding and appreciating the necessity to protect the environment and, secondly, in acquiring the necessary skills in how to achieve that protection at a practical operational level. 3. Knowledge Transfer Measures The benefits of this suite of knowledge transfer measures will further support and reinforce other elements of the RDP such as GLAS and beef genomics which will assist farmers and advisors to be appropriately educated in key environmental and climate action matters and, secondly, in acquiring the necessary skills in how to achieve that protection at a practical operational level. Knowledge transfer to the farming community is to be achieved through the application of a number of schemes in the 2014-2020 RDP. These are: the establishment of Knowledge Transfer Groups, European Innovation Partnerships, Continued Professional Development for Advisors and the development of a Targeted Animal Health and Welfare Advisory Service. These measures have the potential to make an important contribution to both the efficiency and quality of farming activity in Ireland. While improved efficiency has the potential to increase output, and hence raise the environmental footprint of agriculture overall, its close linkage to environmental knowledge and environmental best practice has the potential to greatly increase the depth and quality of the application of environment protection and enhancement at individual farm level. This can be regarded as a positive impact on the primary environmental receptors of farming activity, namely soil, surface water, ground-water, biodiversity and climate (the latter in the context of GHG emissions). Other initiatives that increase the knowledge transfer base include: The Carbon Navigator – a management tool which allows farmers to set improvement targets in key management areas and see results for their enterprise in terms of environmental and economic performance. Beef Technology Adoption Programme 2014 (BTAP) – an initiative to encourage cattle farmers to improve their beef businesses. Beef Data Programme (BDP) 33 Sheep Technology Adoption Programme (STAP) Smart Farming – tool used at farm level to measure, monitor and reduce environmental performance Teagasc BETTER Farm Programme Some of the above measures will be part of the knowledge transfer programme in the Rural Development Programme 2014-2020. Decisions about how land is used and its effect on emissions are not solely the preserve of stakeholders within agriculture. In particular, the willingness of farmers to adopt new practice will depend on knowledge transfer of best practice. Likewise the willingness of farmers to invest in forestry and other biomass crops, such as willow or miscanthus, will depend on energy policy and growth in demand for biomass. The public sector can help stimulate demand particularly through the usage of biomass in the heating of public buildings. In conclusion, working towards carbon neutrality is an important ‘horizon-point‘ on which agriculture can take the lead but which will require active commitment from a range of government departments, agencies and organisations. 4. Targeted Agricultural Modernisation Schemes II (TAMS II) TAMS was introduced under the RDP 2007-2013, and the new draft plan RDP includes a range of measures under TAMS II. These schemes target particular areas of investment in order to assist farmers to establish or upgrade their facilities in a particular manner. Examples of facilities to be supported include dairy equipment, slurry storage, animal housing and low emission slurry spreading equipment. The grant-aid provided will ensure that farmers can meet the current challenges of the agriculture sector as well as providing benefits in relation to animal welfare, the environment, reduction of labour costs, climate change and increased efficiency. This investment has the capacity to yield positive environmental benefits by reducing the risks of accidental pollution and hence serves to protect the natural environment, most notably in the area of water, soil, biodiversity, flora, fauna, air quality and climate. Investments such as low emission slurry spreading equipment and manure storage can contribute to improving nitrogen use efficiency. The Bioenergy Scheme, now part of TAMS II, has provided establishment grants since 2007 to farmers to grow miscanthus and willow for the production of biomass suitable for use as a renewable source of energy. There is the added benefit of providing an alternative land use and income source for individual farmers, with the potential for additional employment in rural areas as supply chains develop and increasing areas of energy crops are established. The future shape of the scheme is being examined at present, with a view to establishing it on the most effective footing for the next programming period. Importantly, the bio-energy scheme has the potential to deliver benefits in the context of climate change through reduction of GHG emissions and through carbon uptake. Secondary environmental benefits include: 34 Protection of surface water and groundwater through the greater level of bio-absorption of contaminants originating from farm animals; Potentially positive impacts on biodiversity, most notably invertebrates and birds, through the provision of additional types of habitats; Positive impacts in maintaining rural populations through locally produced energy; Development of a local bio-energy infrastructure that can also utilise biomass that would otherwise arise as a waste thereby helping in the diversion of wastes from landfill. Potential for Planting Biomass energy crops - The Tillage Sectoral Energy Crop Development Group has indicated that there is the potential for planting up to 67, 000 hectares with biomass energy crops which could produce up to 629,800 oven dry tonnes of woodchip per year. This is equivalent to 39% of Ireland’s 2020 renewable heat target. The Biomass Expansion Scheme will build on experience of similar grant assistance provided since 2007 to farmers to grow miscanthus and willow for the production of biomass suitable for use as a renewable source of energy. The scheme will contribute to one of the principal objectives of the draft RDP which is to support the more sustainable management of natural resources and importantly, it has the potential to deliver benefits in the context of climate change through reduction of GHG emissions and through carbon uptake. In addition to the Biomass Expansion Scheme, other potential investments in renewable energies can be considered under the LEADER element of the RDP where local development strategies seek to address the cross-cutting issue of climate change. 5. Organic Farming Scheme The proposed Organic Farming Scheme under the RDP (2014-2020) promotes organic agriculture as an alternative farming system and will provide support for management practices that can help farmers to adapt and mitigate against the effects of climate change through enhancing ecosystems, diversifying crop and livestock production, and building farmers’ knowledge base to confront changes in climate. To meet these objectives, and with the support of the Organic Farming Scheme, organic agriculture farmers need to implement a series of practices that optimise nutrient and energy flows and minimise risk. Organic production is an overall system of farm management and food production that combines best environmental practices, a high level of biodiversity, the preservation of natural resources and the application of high animal welfare standards, and a production method in line with the preference of certain consumer for products using a natural substances and processes.xvi To meet these objectives, and with the support of the Organic Farming Scheme, organic agriculture farmers need to implement a series of practices that optimise nutrient and energy flows and minimise risk, such as: 35 Crop rotations as a prerequisite for an efficient use of on-site resources; Crop diversity; Taking advantage of on-site resources, such as livestock manure for fertiliser or feed produced on the farm. Organic fertilisers are known to have positive effects on soil carbon; Choosing plant and animal species that are resistant to disease and adapted to local conditions; Raising livestock in free-range, open-air systems and providing them with organic feed; Using animal husbandry practices appropriate to different livestock species; Symbiotic nitrogen fixation with legumes and Biological pest control At present, there are c.1,330 organic farmers in Ireland with 52,783 hectares of land under organic production methods. This equates to just over 1% of our agricultural land. The national target of 5% of Utilisable Agricultural Area (UAA) under organic production is reaffirmed in the Food Harvest 2020 report. 6. Use of Animal By-products DAFM in collaboration with the Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government and the EPA has sought to encourage the use in practice of animal by-products such as tallow which can be used as a substitute for imported heavy fuel oil, and poultry litter which can be used as a biomass energy source. The sustainable use of animal by-products can also result in wider environmental and economic benefits. For example, as an end product of processing, the organic residue agri-fertiliser has the potential to replace other fertiliser sources and, used in accordance with a nutrient management plan, can assist in meeting the objectives of the EU (Good Agricultural Practice for Protection of Waters) Regulations, 2014. DAFM will continue to encourage and facilitate the innovative use of animal by-products for energy production in accordance with EU regulations. DAFM will engage with the agri-food sector, particularly with regard to new agri-food enterprises in terms of using their waste product for energy production. DAFM will explore opportunities for research, development and demonstration projects in the bioenergy sector accessing funding available from sources such as Research Stimulus Fund, the Council for Forest Research and Development (COFORD) Research Programme and the European Innovation Partnership on Agricultural Sustainability and Productivity. Teagasc and other relevant third level institutions will continue to engage in bioenergy research, development, demonstration, training and advice provision, including in relation to the forest-based biomass supply chain. 36 7. Research on Agriculture and Forestry The Department’s Research Division manages publicly-funded agriculture, food and forestry research programmes. The principal sources of funding are: • The Food Institutional Research Measure FIRM): FIRM is the primary national funding mechanism for food research in third level colleges and research institutes with the aim to develop ‘public good’ technologies that will underpin a competitive, innovative and sustainable food manufacturing and marketing sector. • The Research Stimulus Fund (RSF): RSF provides funding, on a competitive basis, to the Irish research institutes for 'public good' agricultural production related research. The main aims of the programme are to facilitate research that fills gaps in the mainstream programme, to support sustainable and competitive agricultural production practices and policies, and contribute to building and maintaining a knowledge economy and research capability in the agriculture sector. • Programme of Competitive Forestry Research for Development (COFORD): COFORD provides funding, on a competitive basis, to the Irish research institutes for 'public good' research that addresses forestry policy and priorities, and transferring the knowledge generated into practice. Research Initiatives can be seen at APPENDIX NO. 1 Research Initiatives 3.4 Measure Report Verify The Teagasc MACC included a cost/benefit analysis of emission mitigation measures. A version of this is shown in the table below: Figure 3.7: Cost Benefit Analysis of Emission Mitigation Measures (MACC) Measure Enterprises involved Improving genetic merit -Improving fertility -Increasing milk yield per U -Earlier calving -Improved survival and health Higher daily weight gain in Beef Cattle Continuing to improve genetic merit of dairy herd by increasing EBI by a further €32 per cow to €140 Dairy Use of finishing bulls to improve average lifetime daily gain. To gain 0.75kg per day from 0.68. Beef Extended grazing season Extension of the grazing season (the number of days that animals spend on grass outdoors) reduces emission intensities by reducing the quantity of stored manure and Dairy /Beef less stored manure and lower enteric methane emissions Abatement Potential 2020 (MtCo2eq) 0.555 (LCA global) Cost Cost Beneficial 0.596 (IPCC) 0.146 (LCA global) Cost Beneficial 0.122 (IPCC) 0.332 (LCA global) – Dairy 0.264 (IPCC) - Dairy Involves training and advisory costs but is economically beneficial to farmers 0.08 (LCA global) – 37 Figure 3.7: Cost Benefit Analysis of Emission Mitigation Measures (MACC) Measure on grazed diets Manure Management Other gains in nitrogen efficiency (incl. use of clover) Enterprises involved by lowering direct enteric methane emissions from animals. Comprises a number of related farm management actions that will reduce GHG emissions associated with manure 1. Spring application 2. Bandspreader or trailing shoe application methods 3. Extended grazing and reduced slurry volume being produced This measure encompasses all farm interventions that result in more efficient use of nitrogen fertiliser on grassland, other than improved manure management and the use of nitrification inhibitors. Includes use of clover, nutrient management planning and further improvements in the timing and application of fertiliser nitrogen. Abatement Potential 2020 (MtCo2eq) Beef 0.04 (IPCC) - Beef Dairy/Beef 0.056 (LCA) 0.036 (IPCC) 0.065 (LCA global) – (Trailing shoe) 0.041 (IPCC) (Trailing shoe) Dairy, Suckler 0.238 (LCA global) Associated with purchase of new equipment. May be cost-prohibitive and will depend on grant payments Cost-beneficial 0.080 (IPCC) Beef Sheep Use of nitrification inhibitors One potential mitigation measure to reduce N²O emissions is the use of nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (DCD). DCD has been shown to reduce nitrous oxide and nitrate leaching losses and in some cases increase pasture production Dairy/Beef Minimum tillage techniques Reducing tillage intensity typically increases storage of SOC relative to conventional till practices as these practices reduce soil erosion. Tillage Increased use of cover crops Cover crops are traditionally used to reduce N emissions to groundwater during the fallow period – winter cover has been observed to reduce net soil CO2 emissions Tillage Biofuel/Bioenergy crops * Willow & Miscanthus for production of electricity Beef 0.281 (LCA global) 0.298 (IPCC) Willow for the production of heat Beef 0.376 (LCA global) 0.419 (IPCC) Oilseed Rape for Biodiesel Cost 0.389 (LCA global) 0 (IPCC) 0.148 (LCA) -0.02 (IPCC) Associated with technological interventions May be cost-prohibitive. Cost beneficial but will be based on technological interventions 0.24 (LCA) 0.08 (IPCC) Tillage (replace Based on land use change 0.112 (LCA global) 38 Figure 3.7: Cost Benefit Analysis of Emission Mitigation Measures (MACC) Measure Winter Wheat for bioethanol production AD of pig slurry Enterprises involved spring barley) Tillage Abatement Potential 2020 (MtCo2eq) Cost 0.174 (IPCC) 0.223 (LCA global) 0.318 (IPCC) Sugar Beet for bioethanol production Tillage Abatement measure involves using pig slurry in combination with grass silage in an AD to convert methane to energy. Pig sector 0.093 (LCA global) 0.147 (IPCC) 0.188 (LCA) 0.188 (IPCC) Associated with new tech/and cost of equip. May be costprohibitive and will depend on grant payments 39 4. The Forestry Sector 4.1 Introduction Ireland’s national forest estate now covers 737,904 ha by the end of 2013, or 10.7%, of the land area. Since 1990, approximately 300,000 hectares have been afforested. Despite this rate of planting, the level of forest cover is low by European standards where average forest cover among the EU-27 countries stands at 37%8. Non-native species represent 76.2% of the forest area, and native species represent 23.8%. The species composition in Ireland’s forest estate is as follows: Figure 4.1: Species composition (%) in Ireland's forest estate Norway Spruce, 4.1 Scots pine, 1.3 Other pines, 9.7 Douglas fir, 1.6 OLL Broadleaves, 1.5 OS Lbroadleaves,7.3 Larch spp, 4.4 Other Conifers, 0.6 Ses & ped Oak, 2.6 Beech, 1.5 Ash, 3.2 Sycamore, 1.5 Sitka spruce, 52.4 Birch spp. 5.9 Alder, 2.4 The forest industry, comprising the growing, harvesting and processing of forest products, makes a significant and increasing contribution to the Irish economy. It is estimated that the economic value of the forest sector in 2012 was €2.3 billion, when both indirect and induced effects are taken into account. The sector is responsible for approximately 12,000 jobs in the economy. Wood processing in Ireland is export-led: in 2012, exports of forest products were valued at €303 million. Wood based panels (WBP) accounted for €179 million, the balance comprising paper and sawn timber exports. Woodlands and forests contribute much to the health and diversity of Ireland’s natural environment, and contain substantial carbon (C) in the soil, trees and other vegetation. Globally they are hugely important to the carbon, water and energy cycles and have substantial impacts on habitats and ecosystems. The removal of forests releases CO2 into the atmosphere, while growing trees absorb CO2 from the air. Other GHGs such as methane and nitrous oxide are also exchanged between forests and the atmosphere, so forests are a key component of the planet’s GHG balance. Therefore the functioning and management of forests are critical for climate change mitigation, and contribute to the reduction of net GHG emissions into the atmosphere. 8 Source, FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010 40 4.2 Climate change mitigation and Irish forestry Deforestation (loss of forest cover) is one of the major contributors to climate change, and currently accounts for 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Forests provide a range of raw materials for industry as well as services to society. One of the main services provided by forests is climate change mitigation which works by removing and locking up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere which is strongly dependent on having young age classes to balance out harvest and other decreases in carbon stocks. Forests play a significant role in mitigating climate change by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and then storing it in trees, other vegetation and in soils. This process is known as carbon sequestration, and the rate at which it occurs is referred to as the forest sink. It is important to distinguish between a reservoir and a sink in terms of forests and climate change: Irish Forests – Carbon Reservoirs and Sinks A reservoir is defined under the Climate Change Convention as a component or components of the climate system where a greenhouse gas is stored. A sink is defined as any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. The total carbon reservoir or store in Irish forests currently exceeds one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, most of which is in the soil. Annual removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by Ireland's forests exceeds 6 million tonnes per annum, or 3.6 million tonnes net of carbon dioxide removed in roundwood harvest. The use of forests to mitigate climate change is one of the mitigation mechanisms recognised by the Kyoto Protocol. There are specific parts of the protocol and related decisions of the UNFCCC that specify how forest sinks can be used to meet Parties’ compliance with their Kyoto greenhouse gas emissions limit. Forest sinks in Kyoto forests, those forests established since 1990 make a substantial contribution to Ireland complying with its Kyoto target and sequestered 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over the 5-year period to the end of 2012. Pre-1990 forests also sequester carbon, and contribute to climate change mitigation. Current projections suggest that these forests will sequester about 142,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, under business-as-usual harvest. Additional sequestration over this amount will result in credits, and vice versa less sequestration will result in debits. The forestry sector provides a range of opportunities to mitigate rises in greenhouse gas levels, including: afforestation/reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation (land use change from forest to non-forest); increased use of wood products; use of forest products for bioenergy to replace fossil fuel use. 41 Deforestation at the national level needs to be controlled in order to protect the climate change mitigation benefits of Ireland's forests and in order to sustain the absorption of carbon dioxide. In the Irish context, this entails the need to continue afforestation at a level in the region of 15,000 hectares per annum for the next two decades. Achievement of this goal will not only sustain the ability of the national forest estate to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, it will also provide a renewable energy resource and a sustainable raw material for construction, and a range of other uses which will be a key component of national climate change and land use policy. Forests themselves are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and current knowledge of impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems is subject to large uncertainties, particularly in relation to the interactions between different climatic factors. However, taking the current state of knowledge, effective and co-ordinated planning is required to ensure a timely and progressive transition towards a climate resilient national forest in the future. Given the long-term nature of forestry, the selection of suitable provenances or genotypes and adaptable management practices under future climate change scenarios is essential for sustainable forestry in Ireland. 9 4.3 Key Policy drivers for the Forestry Sector A. EU Forest Policy The EU Forestry Strategy10 adopted in 1998 put forward as its overall principles the application of sustainable forest management and the multifunctional role of forests. The Strategy was reviewed in 2005 and the Commission presented an EU Forest Action Plan11 in 2006. The EU Green Paper - A Public consultation about the future of forests and forestry policy in the European Union was launched in March 2010. These include a wide range of social, economic and environmental functions with an emphasis on climate change and biodiversity loss. The Commission adopted a Communication on a new EU Forest Strategy12 in 2013. The EU Forest Strategy highlights that forests are not only important for rural development, but also for the environment, for industry, bio-energy, and the fight to combat climate change. The strategy encourages Member States to optimise the forest sector’s contribution to the green economy and improve the resilience, environmental value and mitigation potential of forest ecosystems. The promotion of wood fuel as a substitute for fossil fuels is a priority area within the Strategy. B. National Forest Policy Notwithstanding the necessity to link proposed measures to EU policy goals, forestry measures must also fulfil and be consistent with national policy. In this regard, the Departments Statement of Strategy includes the following goal in relation to forestry: “promoting economic, social and environmentally sustainable farming, fishing and forestry” Strategic actions to achieve this goal include the following: 9 Eugene Hendrick, 2014 http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/fore/index_en.htm 11 http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/fore/action_plan/index_en.htm 12 http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/forestry/strategy/communication_en.pdf 10 42 Develop and implement measures, schemes and services that underpin a rural economy Collaborate with other organisations to deliver policies on environmental sustainability and biodiversity Enhance the development of a sustainable and diverse forestry sector Implement measures to promote use of non-food crops for energy production National forestry policy is also framed by the Smart, Green, Growth message of Food Harvest 2020. Proposed measures in the Forestry Programme 2014-2020 aimed at addressing these objectives include: Smart: knowledge transfer and innovation features proposed are knowledge transfer groups, targeted training and advisory services. Green: Support for the creation of new forest and woodlands will contribute to resource efficiency and the shift to a low carbon economy by providing sustainable and renewable raw material for industry and renewable energy. Support for native woodland conservation will contribute to the protection and enhancement of forest ecosystems. The forest genetic measure will support the conservation of native forest genetic material and improve the resilience of Irish forest species to disease and the efforts of climate change. Growth: The range of measures proposed provides for a number of supports aimed at encouraging growth and maintaining viability. C. Forests, products and people - Irelands forest policy – a renewed vision A new forest policy, based on a stakeholder process, was issued by DAFM in June 2014. Entitled Forests, products and people - Irelands forest policy – a renewed vision,13 it sets out an updated national forest policy strategy which takes account of the substantial changes that have occurred since the publication of Growing for the Future in 1996. The strategic goal now is to develop an internationally competitive and sustainable forest sector that provides a full range of economic, environmental and social benefits to society and which accords with the Forest Europe definition of sustainable forest management. Overall, this renewed forest policy reflects the Oslo Ministerial Decision: European Forests 2020 (Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe 2011), and the vision it contains for Europe’s forests: To shape a future where all European forests are vital, productive and multifunctional. Where forests contribute effectively to sustainable development, through ensuring human well-being, a healthy environment and economic development in Europe and across the globe. Where the forests’ unique potential to support a green economy, livelihoods, climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, enhancing water quality and combating desertification is realised to the benefit of society. Irelands new forest policy will guide the expansion of the forest sector to 2046 in a sustainable and cost efficient manner and it outlines the general objective of national forest policy and puts forward a series of strategic actions. Forests can provide multiple environmental and social benefits, such as 13 Forests, products and people - Ireland's forest policy - a renewed vision 43 biodiversity, water quality, landscape, recreation and leisure, climate change mitigation and renewable energy. To deliver on these services will require the wise management of existing resources and careful planning of future afforestation. Forests’ contribution to climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration forms an important element of the national climate change strategy. It is estimated that Irish Kyoto-eligible forests will sequester about 4.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2020, representing between 40% and 60% of distance to target (depending on the emission scenario used and the final nature of targets to 2020). The afforestation policy will not only support Ireland’s efforts to reach the demanding greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (which are anticipated to rise to 80% of the 1990 level by 2050) but will also reduce dependence on fossil fuels and support the transition to a low carbon economy. D. Irish Forests and Renewable Energy Ireland, with growth rates of certain species more than double those achievable in some European countries, has a strong comparative advantage in the growing of wood fibre. It is vitally important that future afforestation harnesses this advantage through the use of suitable reproductive material, appropriate species choice and suitable site types. Such an approach will contribute to the sustainability of raw material supply and enhancement of carbon sequestration and towards ensuring sustainable supplies of renewable energy in line with the legally-binding 16% renewable energy 2020 target under the EU Renewable Energy Directive. The National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP)14 sets out the Government’s strategic approach and concrete measures to deliver on Ireland’s 16% target of its total final energy consumption from renewable energy sources by 2020. The development of renewable energy is central to overall energy policy in Ireland. Renewable energy reduces dependence on fossil fuels, improves security of supply and reduces greenhouse gas emissions creating environmental benefits while delivering green jobs to the economy. The Bioenergy Plan will seek to form a link between critical policy areas for Ireland ,namely, renewable energy, agriculture, forestry, the environment, sustainability and the growth potential of the green economy. It seeks to provide a mechanism to inform and coordinate policy and implementation across these policy areas, thus supporting the sustainable exploitation of Ireland’s bioenergy resources. A COFORD study (http://www.coford.ie/media) has shown that the contribution of wood biomass required to meet the 16% renewable energy target by 2020, will double the gross demand for wood biomass (in the Republic of Ireland), from 0.952 million cubic metres in 2011 to 1.696 million cubic metres in 2020. Such a steep increase in wood biomass demand will require a high level of investment in the supply chain, and will significantly increase the competition for wood fibre. Sustaining wood fuel production beyond 2020 from Irish forests at the increased levels envisaged is dependent on a continuation of policy measures and critically on the level of afforestation over the next two decades. As wood fuels are mainly sourced from young forests a balanced age class structure at national level is a prerequisite for sustained supply. An annual afforestation programme in the region of 15,000 ha and preferably considerably more, needs to be implemented for an extended period (two decades) to provide a long-term sustainable supply of wood fuels. 14 http://www.dcenr.gov.ie/NR/rdonlyres/C71495BB-DB3C-4FE9-A725-0C094FE19BCA/0/2010NREAP.pdf 44 Strategic Goal number 2 of Ireland’s Strategy on Renewable Energy 2012 - 2020 calls for “A sustainable bio energy sector supporting renewable heat and power generation”. Forest roads, forestry for fibre, thinning and tending schemes will all help to increase the level of supply of forestbased biomass and to sustain it into the future. These schemes also support the national climate policy launched in April 2014, which calls for sustainable development, climate adaption and resilience. Policies aimed at promoting renewable energy (in the form of heat and electricity) from biomass will create a market for thinning and residues (both in-forest and from sawmilling). E. Irish National Biodiversity Plan One of the targets of Ireland’s second National Biodiversity Plan15 published by the Department of Arts, Heritage and the Gaeltacht, is to optimise opportunities under agricultural, rural development and forest policy to benefit biodiversity. The targets will be met through a series of actions set out for various sectors. The actions for forestry are as follows: Maintain target of 30% broadleaf planting in afforestation; Continuation of forest research programme on forest biodiversity, carbon accounting and the interaction of climate change and forest systems; Ensure effective implementation of cross-compliance, statutory management requirements and forest service guidelines/requirements to ensure conservation of biodiversity; Consider and develop guidance on alternative forestry management options which aim to deliver additional biodiversity benefits; Identify non-wood imports driving deforestation and investigate the effectiveness of any potential measures to prevent, minimise and/or mitigate this deforestation; Introduce revised forest legislation which will support the conservation, protection and sustainable management of forest biological diversity. Biodiversity issues have been increasingly integrated into national forestry policy. Sustainable forest management underpins all forestry policy, grant schemes, licenses, consents and other measures administered by the Forest Service. This is achieved through implementation of the National Forest Standard, Code of Best Forest Practice and a suite of environmental guidelines covering areas such as water quality, landscape, biodiversity and forest protection. 4.4 Forestry Sector Action Plan 2014-2020 4.4.1 Introduction The overall aim of Ireland’s national forestry programme is to develop the sector to a scale and in a manner that maximises its contribution to national economic and social well being on a sustainable basis, and which is compatible with the protection of the environment. The current target is to increase the area under forest from 10.7% of the land area to 18% by 2046. The new EU Forest Strategy requests Member States to optimise the forest sector’s contribution to the green economy, improve the resilience, environmental value and mitigation potential of forest ecosystems achieving nature and biodiversity objectives, adapting to climate change, conserving 15 Ireland's second National Biodiversity Plan 2011 - 2015 45 genetic resources, forest protection and creating new woodland. Forest biomass is a priority area within the strategy, where the Commission commits to working with Member States to explore and promote the use of wood as a substitute for fossil fuels. Ireland’s national afforestation policy will not only support Ireland’s efforts to reach the demanding greenhouse gas emission reduction targets but it will also reduce dependence on fossil fuels and support the transition to a low carbon economy. As a first step, the following four actions have been identified: 1. Create new woodland to capture carbon, produce wood and help mitigation 2. Increase the supply of forest-based biomass 3. Support forest holders to actively manage their plantations and 4. Optimise the environmental and social benefits of new and existing forests The implementation of the forest action plan can contribute towards climate change mitigation by increasing forest carbon absorption capacity by planting more trees, increasing biomass accumulation through better forest management and conserving existing forests under the native woodlands conservation scheme. The support for seed stands and seed orchards will also help to develop improved planting material for future forests. The above actions are supportive of the EU’s strategy on adaptation to climate change. 4.4.2 Create new woodland to capture carbon and increase the level of forest cover The objective is to establish 10,000 ha’s approximately of new forests and woodlands per annum to increase the level of forest cover. In order to achieve this objective, the DAFM will implement the afforestation and creation of woodlands measure which includes the following schemes: - Afforestation Scheme Native Woodlands Scheme (Establishment) Forestry for Fibre Scheme Agro- Forestry Scheme and Reconstitution Scheme 4.4.2.1 Afforestation Scheme This is mostly aimed at commercial wood production but which retains a 15% open area\retained habitat obligation for plantations over 10 ha. These forests must also contribute to the target of achieving 30% broadleaf planting on an annual and national basis. 4.4.2.2 Native Woodlands Scheme (Establishment) This scheme has a mainly environmental focus and is aimed at extending native woodland cover and associated biodiversity in Natura 2000, acid sensitive sites and riparian areas. Support under this scheme is provided for the planting of native broadleaves and the retention of species rich habitats such as fens and species rich grasslands. Close to nature forest management is encouraged under this scheme. 46 4.4.2.3 Forestry for Fibre Scheme This scheme provides an opportunity for land owners to plant trees for fuel or for supply to other end uses such as panel board manufacture. 4.4.2.4 Agro-Forestry Scheme Aimed at farmers who wish to plant forest but who also wish to use their land for grazing or silage. This provides farmers with an opportunity to become involved in forestry on a small scale to grow quality wood for their own heating needs while also maintaining their existing agricultural income stream. 4.4.2.5 Reconstitution Scheme This scheme deals with forest holders whose plantations have suffered damage of more than 20% of the relevant forest potential. This scheme offers reassurance that the State will support the reestablishment of a grant aided plantation to its original condition. It also provides aid for the removal and destruction of infected material thereby reducing the risk of disease spreading. By adhering to the principles of sustainable forest management, these schemes will deliver a range of forest services such as water quality protection, soil protection, habitat provision, as well as amenity and recreational services. The new Sustainable Use of Pesticides Directive16 will also be an important feature of these schemes ensuring proper pesticide management. Furthermore, these forests will contribute to the mitigation of climate change though sequestration, abatement (converting agricultural land mostly used for livestock rearing from a source to a sink of greenhouse gases) and substitution (by replacing imported fossil fuels with indigenous wood fuels in the production of heat and power and by replacing more energy intensive materials). 4.4.3 Increase the supply of forest based biomass 4.4.3.1 Forestry for Fibre and Agro-Forestry Schemes The report Forests, products and people Ireland’s forest policy – a renewed vision recently concluded that the long term sustainable level of forestry’s contribution to renewable energy targets is dependent on the scale and accessibility of the forest resource. In order to increase the supply of forest based biomass, DAFM will introduce forest for fibre and agro forestry schemes which will provide opportunities for private growers to plant trees for energy purposes. Farmers who otherwise might not be attracted to more traditional forms of forestry either because of the long rotations before commercial harvesting or the permanent loss of agricultural land might be more amenable to taking part in these schemes. 4.4.3.2 Forest Road Scheme A Value for Money Review17 of the Forest Road Scheme was undertaken in 2010 and concluded, inter alia, that the scheme’s outcomes reflect the growing awareness of the importance of forest roads in the overall afforestation programme. Food Harvest 2020 states that the Department should continue to support the provision of the forest road network, while also evaluating new infrastructure systems. 16 17 The Sustainable Use of Pesticides Directive Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Value for Money Review – The Forest Road Scheme (2010) 47 Access is vital if forests are to be sustainably managed and currently the private forest estate due to its age structure is largely unroaded. Ireland’s existing forest resource is relatively young, especially in the private sector where output is projected to increase significantly over the next 15-20 years. The initial cost of forest road construction (c.€1,000/ha) is prohibitive for many private forest owners and support for private forest holders to build forest roads is crucial. Without financial support it would be uneconomical to thin and without roads there is no access to the forest. Support for development of forest infrastructure is necessary to improve access to forests to facilitate harvesting and timber extraction. In order to increase the forest road infrastructure by 110-125 km per year, DAFM will invest in the servicing of forest area for clear felling and thinning operations. This infrastructure will also provide vital access to forest areas for emergency vehicles and for recreational and amenity purposes. 4.4.4 Support private forest holders to actively manage their forests Encouraging and facilitating knowledge transfer in the forest sector is a primary policy objective. Private forest holders find it difficult to single-handedly thin their plantations as the cost of harvesting and transportation can outweigh the financial returns on an individual basis. Furthermore, due to the age profile of the forest estate, there is little forest management culture among private forest owners in Ireland. Consequently, many owners are not familiar with thinning operations nor of the importance of thinning to ensure the long term economic viability of forests. In order to support private forest holders to actively manage their forests, the DAFM will implement the following measures: - Knowledge Transfer Groups (KTG) Establishing Producer Groups Continued Professional Development (CPD) Targeted Training Advisory Services Forest Management Plans 4.4.4.1 Knowledge Transfer Groups (KTG’s) A survey of forest owners, (Ni Dhubhain, A., Maguire K., Farrelly N., 2010) found that those who had attended forest activities are 2.5 times more likely to thin their forests. There is a clear need, therefore, to build significantly on the existing skills and knowledge base and develop a culture of sustainable forest management among forest owners. The transfer of awareness, knowledge and skills to forest owners through forest Knowledge Transfer Groups (KTG’s) can play a pivotal role. Group facilitators approved by DAFM, would be trained to a FETAC accredited standard in order to operate a group. The programme will be open to established members of forest holder groups and to forest holders wishing to join or form groups for the first time. The programme will focus primarily on silviculture, financial, management, forest health, and environmental awareness to include water quality and biodiversity and timber harvesting/marketing. KTG’s are important contributor in bridging the gap between organisations and individuals who are focussed on research and process improvement on the one hand and on the other, forest holders whose enterprise can benefit from these developments. The aim will be to improve market uptake of new forest technologies, processes and concepts. There are 26 producer groups already in existence and the potential exists to use these groups as a platform for growing a network of KTG’s. 48 4.4.4.2 Establishing Producer Groups The Food Harvest 2020 Report recommended that the forest industry should promote forest producer groups in order to reduce management costs and increase the marketability of timber from private forests. It also recommends mechanisms for relevant and up to date training to meet new developments. In recent years, facilitated by Teagasc and the Forest Service, 26 forest producer groups have been established to date. While more than 1,900 forest owners have already become involved in group structures, Forest Service statistics indicate that a further 8,000 forest owners have plantations of 12- 22 years old which are approaching or have already reached thinning stage. The majority of these forest owners have no ongoing forest management or planning regimes in place. Critical management decisions and in many cases, time critical harvesting interventions are now required. DAFM will provide financial support to establish forest producer groups and the objective will be to increase the number of existing producer groups by 50% over the programme period. Producer groups provide a useful platform for forest holders living within a geographic catchment to combine their expertise as well as their resources for mutual benefit. Learning from other forest holders can engender a stronger ethos for accumulating knowledge which can lead to developing a certain level of expertise in an area. Economies of scale as well as knowledge can provide the right circumstances for growers to thin where they might not have done so if a producer group hadn’t existed. 4.4.4.3 Continuous Professional Development (CPD) There is a need for CPD for registered foresters in the area of environment and forest management activities. Up-skilling is required so that registered foresters are in a better position to assist existing forest holders and advise individuals who are contemplating planting. This is particularly relevant in relation to environmental compliance, best practice in forest management in relation to support schemes operated by the DAFM. DAFM will provide financial support to establish a CPD structure for 300 registered foresters. Continuous professional development would require that professional foresters would participate in a set number of events per year in order to remain on the list of registered foresters. The objective is to establish a CPD structure for all registered foresters. 4.4.4.4 Targeted Training Scheme There is increasing demand, particularly among emerging forest holder groups, for education and training programmes on forest management including timber measurement, formative shaping, pruning, chainsaw safety, preparing for first thinning and the marketing of forest products. The issue of the safe handling of harvesting machine and chainsaw operators is now being raised with representative bodies and needs to be addressed. Coillte specify harvesting machine operator competency certification as a requirement in order to operate in Coillte forests and thus maintain its FSC standard. DAFM will provide financial support for training courses in relation to forestry schemes, procedures, guidelines and environmental directives. Targeted training will be aimed at both forest holders and forestry professionals and will include seminars, field events or more formal training courses aimed at specific needs such as harvesting on sensitive sites. 4.4.4.5 Advisory Services Scheme Advisory services in relation to new and existing schemes provide a key support mechanism for the forestry programme where resources are aimed at promotion and encouraging farmers to plant. As the forest industry expands in line with the expected increase in roundwood production, there is a need to provide additional advisory support in areas such as forest management, bio-energy, agro49 forestry, harvesting on sensitive sites, environmental issues, plant health, marketing of forest products and adoption of new technology. In relation to the latter, new technology related to timber measurement could reduce the costs for private forest holders, thereby improving farm viability. Agro-forestry is a new form of land use in Ireland which will require advisory services promotion and support if it is to become a viable alternative land use option for farmers. DAFM will provide financial support for advisory services and supports and it will be delivered in the form of clinics, field days, information meetings, workshops, events such as “Talking Timber” and conferences. This measure is particularly important in the context of the 2015-2020 Forestry Programme as a number of schemes are being introduced for the first time. 4.4.4.6 Forest Management Plans (FMP’s) Forest management plans are a priority area for the Forest Service. FMP’s contribute to accurate forecasting of round-wood and biomass production, planning for harvesting, forest infrastructure requirements, disease/fire risk assessment and management, environmental protection and forest certification. Proper management is essential for the health and vigour of a forest plantation which enables owners to maximise financial return. Optimisation of forest information is included in the EU Forest Strategy where FMP’s are said to be key instruments in delivering multiple goods and services in a balanced way. FMP’s are also important features of both the EU 2020 Biodiversity Strategy and EU Rural Development funding. 4.4.5 Enhance the environmental and social benefits of new and existing forests The state has invested significantly in the broadleaf planting programme and it is important that the benefits of these forests are maximised for society. In order to enhance the environmental and social aspects of forests, the DAFM will implement the following schemes: - Native Woodland Scheme (Conservation) Thinning and Tending Scheme Neighbourwood Scheme Innovative Forestry Technology Scheme Forest Genetic Reproductive Material scheme 4.4.5.1 Native Woodland Scheme (Conservation) This scheme aims to enhance existing native woodlands and establish new native forests and provide for the protection of endangered species such as the freshwater pearl mussel. The target is to establish 60 ha of NWS (Conservation) per annum and improve the conservation status of the freshwater pearl mussel in the eight priority catchments. Support for example would include converting conifer forests growing along riparian zones to native woodlands using close-to-nature forestry. Ground vegetation would be encouraged to grow, acting as a filter reducing sedimentation from within the catchment. This would also have the effect of stabilising vulnerable river banks and protecting the soil from erosion. 4.4.5.2 Thinning and Tending Scheme This scheme is aimed specifically at broadleaf forests where support is provided to improve the health and vitality of these forests by removing malformed, wolf or diseased trees, Thinning encourages growth of potential crop trees and by managing natural regeneration. These activities improve the visual amenity of the forest thereby enhancing the landscape. Forests which have been thinned can also play an important role in soil and water protection where healthier trees are better placed to perform these functions. Broadleaf forests can slow down surface water runoff in water catchments reducing sedimentation\eutrophication of nearby 50 watercourses. These services are enhanced by ground vegetation that is encouraged to grow once the canopy is opened up leading to more light reaching the forest floor. 4.4.5.3 Neighbourwood Scheme This scheme is aimed at realising the recreational and wider social benefits woodlands and forests can provide. The Neighbourwood Scheme is all about bringing communities and woodlands together, by helping local authorities and others to create ‘close-to-home’ woodland amenities in partnership with communities, for local people to use and enjoy. Neighbourwoods provide accessible opportunities for recreation and regular exercise, and offer people contact with the natural world and the changing seasons. They provide a venue for a wide range of community and sporting events which contribute to social inclusion, and represent an ideal ‘outdoor classroom’ for local school children to learn about nature and the environment. Neighbourwoods also deliver a wide range of environmental benefits, providing vital habitats for wildlife, removing atmospheric carbon, promoting air quality and improving the visual landscape. 4.4.5.4 Innovative Forestry Technology Scheme – The use of new forest technologies can contribute to reducing the environmental footprint of forest activities as well as reducing forest management costs. However, there is reluctance on the part of forest holders and forestry companies to invest in new technology for reasons of cost, risk and lack of knowledge about such technologies. Support for investment in new technologies is therefore necessary, whereby early adopters could purchase the equipment, use and test the equipment in the field and if suitable to Irish conditions, demonstrate it to others. If this technology was supported and proven to work effectively, it would increase the viability of private forests. DAFM will provide support to assist individuals in procuring new technologies which can have a positive impact on the economic as well as environmental aspects of their business once it relates directly to the forest plantation. For example damage to forest and minor county roads can be reduced through the use of variable tyre pressure systems for the haulage of logs, chip or forestbased biomass. Innovative forest technologies which have a cost associated with them and which have not yet established a proven track record under Irish conditions could also be supported under this scheme. Inventory measurement equipment is another example of technologies that could be supported. 4.4.5.5 The Forest Genetic Reproductive Material Scheme The conservation of genetic resources is referred to in the EU strategy as having a role in the sustainable management of forests. Furthermore, the stategy highlights that in order for forests to react to future threats and trends, genetic diversity must be enhanced and endangered genetic resources protected. The strategy calls for forest genetic conservation (tree species diversity) and diversity within species and within populations to be strengthened by Member States. Ireland imports significant quantities of seed, for example, 95% of sitka seed is imported. Support for seed stands and the establishment of new seed orchards would reduce dependency on imports while providing an opportunity to improve the genetic quality of planting stock. The Forest Policy Review calls for the use of genetically improved planting material which will deliver improved timber quality and timber wood volumes to be supported. 51 Sustaining and Developing Ireland’s Forest Genetic Resources18 sets out a strategy for forest genetic resource conservation and development and makes recommendations as to how this can be achieved, including the establishment of a National Forest Genetic Resource Advisory Group. Provision for funding to conserve and protect genetic resources at selected sites can form part of this strategy. 4.4.6 Summary of Action Plan 2014 -2020 Figure 4.2 Action Increase the level of forest cover Increase the supply of forestry based biomass Support private forest holders to actively manage their forests Scheme Target 2015-2020 Afforestation NWS (Establistment) Agro Forestry Reconstitution 37,215 ha 2,700 ha 195 ha Approvals generates demand Forestry for Fibre Forest Roads 3,300 ha 690 km & 600 special works Knowledge Transfer Groups and targeted training activities 500 participants in KTG's specific courses funded on request from 3rd level bodies Advisory and Promotion Services 600 individual visits, 3500 phone consultations 20 field days and other events Establishing Producer Groups Investment in Forest Technology Forest Management Plans Enhance the environmental and social benefits of new and existing forests Woodland Improvement NWS (Conservation) Neighbourwood Scheme Forest reproductive Material Maintain existing groups and create 13 new groups 180 projects funded 6000 plans 9,000 ha thinned and tended 1,950 ha 30-60 projects 350 ha supported Cahalane, G., Doody, P., Douglas, G., Fennessy, J., O’Reilly, C. and Pfeifer, A. 2007. Sustaining and Developing Ireland’s Forest GeneticRresources. An outline strategy. COFORD, Dublin. 18 52 4.5 Measure, Report, Verify (MRV) 4.5.1 Create new woodland to capture carbon and increase the level of forest cover The new forestry programme for Ireland proposes a suite of schemes which will provide environmental services aimed at protecting water quality, improving soil stability, retaining and enhancing diverse habitats, protecting endangered species, mitigating climate change and enhancing the visual amenity of surrounding landscapes. The afforestation and creation of woodland measure aims to increase the level of forest cover to 18% by 2046. The target is to create 10,000 hectare approximately of new forests each year (subject to the availability of funds) over the programme period 2015 to 2020 which will lead to greater supplies of forest biomass and saw-log sized material for renewable energy uses and for wood product manufacture. More specific targets are as follows: Figure 4.3 Scheme Type Afforestation NWS Establishment Agro Forestry Forestry for Fibre Total Programme Year 2015-2020 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2020 Target 5,440 5,990 6,165 6,215 6,615 6,790 450 450 450 450 450 450 2,700 10 20 25 40 50 50 195 100 200 500 500 1,000 1,000 3,300 450 450 450 450 450 450 2,700 37,215 Schemes to create new woodlands must contain at least 15% open space and retained habitat (Areas of Biodiversity Enhancement) where the size of the new forest exceeds 10 ha. In sites less than 10ha, the open space element of ABEs should be designed in conjunction with neighbouring land use and may be reduced. These schemes must contribute to the national broadleaf target of 30% thereby contributing to a greater range of habitat types and a more diverse species mix. The afforestation and creation of woodlands measure will be measured against total afforestation planting achieved versus planting targets set total broadleaf planting measured against the 30% broadleaf target The total number of hectares of ABE established under this measure The total number of hectares of NWS establishment versus the planting targets set The total number of hectares of agro-forestry planted versus the planting targets set The total number of hectares of forest for fibre planted versus the planting targets set Given the levels of afforestation that have occurred since 1990, it is estimated that between 2008 and 2012 the average rate of sequestration in qualifying forests (under Article 3.3) over the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol will be 3.23 Mt CO2 per annum. While afforestation levels proposed under the new programme will have little effect on the levels of carbon sequestered in the short term because forests grow relatively slowly as they establish themselves over the first five years or so, these forests will make a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation in the longer term. A planting programme of 10,000 ha will also support a sustainable harvest of 7-8million m3 roundwood per annum into the future and consequently a sustainable and meaningful contribution to climate mitigation over the long term. 53 4.5.2 Increase supply of forest based biomass In 2012, the National Forest Inventory confirmed that 23% of the national estate had reached thinning stage but had not been thinned. Mobilising wood output from first and subsequent thinnings is a key strategy in meeting both wood biomass and round wood demand. The gross demand for wood biomass will increase two-fold, from 1.589 million m3 in 2011 to 3.259 million m3 in 2020 which will require a high level of investment in the sectoral supply chain and will significantly increase the competition for wood fibre. This demand is likely to increase beyond 2020 as the cost of fossil fuels continues to rise and higher renewable energy targets are set by the EU in response to climate change and fuel security considerations. DAFM also supports a wood fuel quality assurance scheme in partnership with the Irish Bioenergy Association, and an advisory service on wood fuels at http://www.woodenergy.ie/ The success of the road scheme will be measured by comparing the number of kilometres of road constructed against the target of 110-125 km per year thereby servicing up to 34,500 hectares of forest for clear felling and thinning operations which will achieve a net realisable volume production of 4.6 million m3 per annum by 2020 and 7-8 million m3 by 2028. Good forest roads are crucial for effective forest management and maintenance. Wood harvesting, game control and recreational activities require the accessibility provided by a suitable road network. The construction of forest roads has an important and positive impact on the environment, which results in the completion of first thinning and the uncovering of the forest canopy. Light filtering through the canopy will stimulate vegetation growth leading to greater biodiversity and enrichment of the forest floor in terms of animal, plant and insect life. 4.5.3 Support private forest holders to actively manage their forests DAFM will provide financial aid to support private forest holders to actively manage their plantations and the actions will be measured as follows: a) Knowledge Transfer Groups (KTG’s) The objective is to maximise the potential for knowledge and skill transfer to forest owners, thereby stimulating proactive management and appropriate tending, thinning and harvesting interventions. KTG will be measured against the number of groups established against the target of funding 1000 new forest holders per year. b) Setting up of Producer Groups In recent years, 26 forest producer groups were established to date and this action will be measured by comparing it with the objective of increasing the number of existing producer groups by 50% over the programme period. c) Continued Professional Development (CPD) This action will be measured by establishing whether the objective to establish a CPD structure for 300 registered foresters has been achieved. d) Targeted Training This action will be measured by ensuring that there are sufficient numbers of adequately trained harvesting (including chainsaw) and forwarding operatives, thinning taking place on time, round-wood production targets are reached, new format of draft FMP proposed being submitted, minimal accidents in forest operations, reduced pilot cases from the EU regarding breaches of habitats directive. 54 e) Advisory Services The objective is to ensure that the appropriate support is available to forest holders to enable the maximum financial return to be generated from the forest resource. Its success will be measured against the total number of advisory hours provided, number of demonstrations given, events held, number of specialist areas covered and finally the number of forest holders receiving advice. f) Forest Management Plans The success of this action will be measured by comparing the number of forest plans supported against the target of financing 6000 plans over the programme. 4.5.4 Enhance the environmental and social benefits of new and existing forests DAFM will provide support for the following schemes to enhance the environmental and social benefits of new and existing forests: The Native Woodland (Conservation) Scheme The success of the scheme will be measured by comparing the number of hectares planted against the planting target of up to 360 ha per annum and improvement in the conservation status of freshwater pearl mussel in the eight priority catchments. The Thinning and Tending Scheme The success of the scheme will be measured by comparing the number of hectares thinned against the thinning target of 1500 ha of broadleaf and mixed forests each year under the programme. The target total hectares of broadleaf woodlands thinned (9,000 ha) will be used to measure the environmental benefits. The Neighbourwood Scheme The success of the scheme will be measured by comparing the number of projects supported against the target of supporting up to 10 quality projects each year. It will also be measured by the increase in the number of visitors to forests after the programme is completed against the baseline figure of 18million people that visited forests in 2012. The Innovative Forestry Technology Scheme Support for the introduction of new technologies for use in private forests has the potential to reduce management costs and improve accuracy in terms of forest management outputs. The success of the scheme will be measured by the number of new technologies adopted by forest holders, producer groups and contracting companies. Approximately 30 projects per annum will be supported. The Forest Genetic Reproductive Material Scheme The success of the scheme will be measured by comparing the number of hectares supported against the target of 350 hectares of seed production areas and 20 hectares of seed orchards to be funded each year. 4.5.5 Conclusion The Forest Service will re-instate a stand-alone annual report providing a review of achievement versus specific goals in areas such as afforestation, timber production, environmental compliance and climate mitigation while also providing a statistical database for reporting and planning. The 55 Forest Service will publish five year and annual business plans which clearly set out the work programme for the coming period, indicators of achievement and the funding arrangements. 56 5. Challenges to 2050 5.1 The challenge to 2050 The National Economic and Social Council (NESC) report sets out a vision that Ireland will be a carbon-neutral society by 2050, based on an approach to economic development that is socially and environmentally sustainable. It outlines a way of thinking about the challenges - of climate-change policy and the global resource crunch - and proposals for a pragmatic approach involving simultaneous action along three tracks. To move Ireland towards becoming a carbon-neutral society, the NESC Secretariat proposes a pragmatic three-track approach. All three tracks should begin immediately and proceed simultaneously and what distinguishes them is the kinds of action required in each: Track 1: Strategic and Institutional - including Ireland’s engagement with the UN and EU climate policy processes, new institutional structures and five strategic building blocks; Track 2: Exploration and Experimentation - to consciously build policy and organisational networks in specific areas and push these to ever-greater decarbonisation; and Track 3: Design and Implementation - focuses on where early action makes sense and is feasible, and measures to meet Ireland’s 2020 targets. In addition, five strategic building blocks for the transition to a carbon neutral Ireland were identified and one of those blocks is to create a world class agri-food sector working within a carbon-neutral system of agriculture, forestry and land-use. Ireland needs to, and can, become a world leader in the production, management and marketing of low-carbon, high-quality sustainable food. This can be achieved by adopting carbon neutrality as a point on the horizon for the country and the industry to work towards. The challenge of working towards carbon neutrality will be achieved by pushing scientific research and probing practice to identify further means of reducing emissions and ways of maximising the carbon-sink potential associated with land use, land-use change and forestry. 5.2 The Emissions Gap In the period to 2020, even with the adoption of technically feasible mitigation options for the agricultural sector, as suggested in the Teagasc MACC, and with appropriate supports under the proposed RDP, emissions are likely to flatline at best. This is not to say Irish agriculture is being complacent - in fact significant progress has been made in achieving efficiency improvements and the emissions intensity per calorie of food output in 2013 is reduced by approximately 14% relative to 2005. Major efforts are being made in further improving the climate efficiency of agriculture and to build upon the progress made to date. While leaving a gap in absolute reductions, it is important to emphasise the enormous climate efficiency ambition that is implicit in achieving a flat lining of emissions. Agriculture in 2020 is likely to be shaped by agricultural policies that are largely determined and by technologies that are currently here or near market. Agriculture thereafter to 2050 may well be shaped by policies, market developments and technologies that are unknown at this point. 57 In relation to forestry, Ireland has a target to expand forest cover from the current 11% of the land area of the country to 18% by mid century, with all of the expansion coming from agricultural land. The current forestry programme envisages an annual afforestation programme of 8,000 ha by 2020. The estimated cost to the state of the afforestation programme since 1990 and out to 2030 is €3.5 billion, which over the period 2021-2030 will remove an estimated net 5.2 million tonnes of CO2 per annum. Not acknowledging this mitigation potential in the current EU ESD agreement would seem inappropriate especially where there is a demonstrated high level of efficiency already achieved in the agricultural sector means that limited additional cost effective mitigation potential exits using currently available technologies and practices. The Teagasc report ‘Carbon-Neutrality as a horizon point for Irish Agriculture: a qualitative appraisal of potential pathways to 2050’ 19 assesses how Irish agriculture can approach carbon-neutrality by 2050. ‘Carbon-neutrality’ has been proposed as a “horizon point for agriculture by 2050” by the Secretariat of NESC and by the Oireachtas Committee on Environment, Culture and the Gaeltacht. The report states that “The concept of carbon-neutrality as a horizon point marks a change from the policy conventions used heretofore to frame the discussions on agriculture and green house gas emissions, which are largely focussed on the methodologies specified by National Inventory Reports and UNFCCC reporting guidelines. In these inventories, emissions of agricultural green house gas emissions (methane, nitrous oxides, carbon dioxide) are attributed to the agricultural sector, whilst the benefits arising from agriculture in the form of carbon-sequestration and fossil fuel offsetting are attributed to other sectors of the economy. This apparent anomaly has thus far reduced the menu of options for the agricultural industry to reduce net green house gas emissions while at the same time growing the industry in the context of the Food Harvest 2020 Strategy, the phasing out of EU milk quota and international food security concerns”. Addressing climate change across the economy is now a major policy concern for government, with an approach to carbon neutrality being considered as a ‘horizon point’ for the agriculture sector. It is likely that only a small part of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions will be offset by carbonsequestration in grasslands and forestry in the coming decades, thus leaving an ‘emissions gap’. However, the pathways that could be utilised to narrow, if not close, this emissions gap between now and 2050 include: an acceleration of forestry planting rates to increase carbon sequestration; the use of advanced technologies and mitigation strategies to reduce emissions; a dramatic increase in the cultivation of bio-energy crops and/or anaerobic digestion of grass and slurry to offset fossil fuel emissions; constraining agricultural activity to limit emissions and an acceptance that agriculture emissions will need to increase to some extent to satisfy growing future food demand. 19 http://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2013/3002/CarbonNeutrality.pdf 58 The concept of an approach to carbon-neutrality significantly broadens the menu of options open to farmers to contribute constructively to reducing net emissions from agriculture, while at the same time growing the production and export of food. It changes the emphasis from gross emissions to net emissions (i.e. the difference between gross emissions and offsetting), which opens up opportunities to grow the industry while at the same time reducing net emissions through the incentivisation of offsetting mechanisms. Partial carbon-neutrality for agriculture may be achieved by 2050 by the selective implementation of all five pathways simultaneously. However, the report emphasises that immediate action is needed in order to set a course towards carbonneutrality by 2050. It should be seen as a ‘horizon point’ for the agricultural sector to aim for, rather than a target, as full carbon-neutrality may not be technically feasible. 5.2.1 Emissions: Total emissions20 from the agricultural sector, based on data provided by Teagasc to the EPA, are projected to increase by 9% between 2013 and 2020 as a result of the targets set out in Food Harvest 2020. This is predominantly driven by a projected increase in dairy cow numbers of 14% between 2015 and 2020 following the abolition of milk quotas in 2015 as well as a projected increase in fertilizer nitrogen use of 27% by 2020. For 2030 it is estimated that dairy cow numbers will have increased to 1.56 million head (from 1.36 million in 2020) and that fertilizer nitrogen use will remain relatively stable post-2020. On the other hand the beef herd is forecasted to contract by 12% between 2020 and 2030 from 5.3 million head to 4.7 million head. The Teagasc document Carbon-Neutrality as a horizon point for Irish Agriculture21 used the FAPRII model to estimate agricultural emissions by 2050. Projections for the period to 2050 are based on assumptions that the real price of agricultural commodities remains relatively fixed and that CAP policy will remain unchanged. The assumptions are that: Dairy cow numbers are likely to increase following the phasing out of EU milk quota and stabilise after 2030. Suckler cow numbers are likely to be reduced gradually in line with the long term erosion of the real value of agricultural support payments. In terms of total bovine stock numbers, the likely net result is a marginal increase up to 2030, followed by a stabilisation of animal numbers. The FAPRI-Ireland models shows that emissions would rise in the short to medium term, reaching about 22 MtCO2eq by 2030, and continue to rise at a much lower rate beyond 2030. The principal divers for the increase in emissions in the short to medium term are the growing population of dairy cows, pigs and poultry and associated increases in fertiliser emissions and emissions associated with 20 21 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/air/airemissions/GHG_Emiss_Project_publication_2014_finalv2.pdf http://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2013/3002/CarbonNeutrality.pdf 59 animal waste. This overall growth in emissions would be only partially offset by a decline in the number of suckler cows. See Figure 5.1. a. Figure 5.1 Figure XXX: Projected agricultural GHG emissions and total cattle numbers under the reference scenario. Source: Donnellan et al. (2013) 5.2.2 Offsetting The table below shows the emissions gap in the business as usual (BAU) scenario as the difference between agricultural emissions and offsetting. It shows that the emissions gap would likely to equate to two-thirds of total agricultural emissions by 2030.It is likely that only a small part of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions will be offset by carbon-sequestration in grasslands and forestry in the coming decades, thus leaving an ‘emissions gap’ . The concept of carbon-neutrality, significantly broadens the menu of options open to farmers to contribute constructively to reducing net emissions from agriculture, while at the same time growing the production and export of food. It changes the emphasis from gross emissions to net emissions (i.e. the difference between gross emissions and offsetting), which opens up opportunities to grow the industry while at the same time reducing net emissions through the incentivisation of offsetting mechanisms. A reduction in the agricultural ‘emissions gap’ by 2050 requires significant and immediate incentivisation programmes, which in turn will require crosssectoral and coherent policy initiatives, both at national and international level. The potential for offsetting through carbon sequestration depends on the following carbon sinks: - Grassland - Cropland - Peatland/wetland - Forestry (both carbon sequestration in forest biomass, litter, deadwood, soils and sequestration of carbon into harvested wood products (HWP) & fossil fuel replacement abatement using forest fuelwood. 60 Figure 5.2: Total potential agricultural GHG emissions and offsetting, and the resulting emissions gap by 2030 and 2050 under the reference scenario (no mitigation). All figures in MtCO2eq per year; positive figures refer to net emissions, negative figures to net offsetting. 2030 2050 Total agricultural GHG emissions +21.7 +22.2 Forestry (incl. Fossil fuel displacement) Grassland Cropland Wetland Total Offsetting -2.6 (-4.2) -6.5 0 +2.2 -6.9 (-8.5) -0.8 (-1.6) -6.8 0 +2.2 -5.5 (-6.2) Emissions gap (Incl fossil fuel displacement) +14.8 (+13.2) +16.7 (+16.0) Source: Teagasc: Carbon-Neutrality as a horizon point for Irish Agriculture (2013) Carbon stocks/removals 5.2.3 Minimising the Emissions Gap Teagasc in their Carbon-Neutrality as a horizon point for Irish Agriculture have proposed and assessed five pathways towards closing or minimising the emissions gap by 2050. 1. Pathway A (Offsetting): An acceleration of forestry planting rates to increase carbon sequestration 2. Pathway B (Advanced Mitigation): The use of advanced technologies and mitigation strategies to reduce emissions 3. Pathway C (Fossil Fuel Displacement): Dramatic increase in the cultivation of bio-energy crops (including anaerobic digestion of grass) to offset fossil fuel emissions 4. Pathway D (Constrained Production Activity) : Constraining agricultural activity to limit emissions 5. Pathway E (Residual Emissions): An acceptance that agriculture emissions will need to increase to some extent to satisfy growing future food demand. Partial carbon-neutrality for agriculture may be achieved by 2050 by the selective implementation of all five pathways simultaneously. However, the report emphasises that immediate action is needed in order to set a course towards carbon- neutrality by 2050. It should be seen as a ‘horizon point’ for the agricultural sector to aim for, rather than a target, as full carbon-neutrality may not be technically feasible. The graphic at Figure 5.3 below is a visual representation of the five pathways towards carbon neutrality. Black/grey bars indicate the part of agricultural emissions that are offset by 61 sequestration, dark green bars indicate the part of agricultural emissions offset through specific pathway measures, while the red bar indicates an emissions gap. Figure 5.3 Source: Teagasc ‘Carbon-Neutrality as a horizon point for Irish Agriculture – a qualitative appraisal of potential pathways to 2050 Each of the five pathways has merits and potential in reducing the emissions gap from agriculture by 2050 specifically pathway A has significant potential to reduce the emissions gap through offsetting and fossil fuel displacement. As suggested in the report the implementation of a mosaic of pathways is more likely to be effective in reducing the emissions gap from agriculture. Given the uncertainty of policy and market developments over the time horizon to 2050 it is difficult to assess with any certainty at this point whether the emissions gap can be fully closed so that full carbonneutrality for agriculture can be achieved. 5.2.4 Projections and modelling The Irish TIMES Energy System Modelling Project is the only project of its kind in Ireland and investigates how the energy system in Ireland can meet CO2 emission reduction targets out to the year 2050. The model provides a means of testing energy policy choices and scenarios, and predicting implications for the Irish economy and for the environment, including greenhouse gas emissions. It is being used to both examine baseline projections and to assess the implications of emerging technologies and mobilising alternative policy choices such as carbon mitigation strategies. The projections for non-CO2 emissions (CH4 & N2O) from the agricultural sector are based on the FAPRI-Ireland model and provide an add - on to the Irish times model above to provide an economy analysis. The mitigation options and strategies for the agricultural sector are described in the Teagasc MACC and are linked to the FAPRI-Ireland model. 5.2.5 Plan to address various gaps including key actors There is a strong scientific and research base that can be used to find new ways to account for and reduce emissions. DAFM and Teagasc are active in international networks and research groups related to GHG. Teagasc research suggests that there are measures that could be taken in the short 62 term, which would both increase farm profits and enhance carbon efficiency. In the context of 2050, existing and emerging research becomes critical in identifying what and how carbon efficiency can be achieved. Ireland has significant expertise in relevant areas that can help put the country in a leadership position to make agri-food less carbon-intensive and more efficient. 63 6. Next Steps: This document is very important in setting out the sectoral mitigation inputs as set out under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill 2015. The first mitigation plan will outline what the sector can contribute to the overall national emissions target for 2020, through cost-effective mitigation measures while maintaining economic sustainability and efficiency in the sector. It will be informed by scientific evidence and research findings and will also outline a longer term view right out to 2050 which will seek to balance the objectives of allowing the food industry to grow so as to meet the food security challenges that face the world, as well as the need to meet future climate change ambition. We welcome your submissions on how you think Ireland can best achieve this vision. Ireland is a world leader in developing carbon efficient food production systems. Reducing carbon intensity further will require a focus on issues like improving animal health, better nutrient management, better soil carbon management, improving breeding and genetics and improving overall management. Other initiatives, such as the measurement of the carbon footprint of the major food commodities in order to set out benchmarks, provide performance information to farmers and identify priorities for future research and advisory efforts will be pursued. Our main focus is consistently on the need to achieve smart, green growth, as envisaged in Food Harvest 2020. We need to be smart about what we do so that we can become more efficient and more competitive, and we need to do it in a way that is sustainable from an environmental and climate viewpoint. This Department continues to stress the need to combine the climate change mitigation ambition with a competitive and carbon efficient farming system. Finally, we welcome stakeholder involvement as we prepare for the publication of the first Agriculture Sector Low Carbon Transition and Mitigation Plan. This discussion document is an important step in that it will allow you to contribute to developing policy in this vitally important area. In the course of developing the sectoral elements, the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine is open to considering and would welcome suggestions on strengthening the structure and/or content of sectoral elements up to 2020 and beyond. 64 APPENDIX NO. 1 Research Initiatives The Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Initiative for Ireland The EU 2020 Climate Change and Energy Package poses considerable challenges for Irish agriculture, particularly in the context of ambitious production targets envisaged by Food Harvest 2020. Nitrous oxide emissions are the second largest portion of agricultural emissions, but also can be readily mitigated. However, there is currently a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the N2O emission factors, and refinement of these would allow the adoption of ‘win-win’ strategies, such as greater use of urea, which would in turn allow more flexibility in terms of sectoral expansion. Carbon sequestration is also associated with pastures and improved grassland management could provide a mitigation option without impacting on agricultural production. This project seeks to assess the influence of climate and soil on C sink capacity as well as quantifying effective ways to enhance pasture sequestration. The twin measurement and modelling approach will ultimately lead to more refined and flexible inventories. This will allow thus allow for mitigation research that has been on-going for several years to be inputted into inventories, thus obtaining a net benefit to the sector in terms of reducing its emissions profile. Animal Diet Research Research is ongoing to evaluate a range of measures that could be used to reduce CH4 emissions per animal. Examples of such measures include increasing the level of oil in the diet, to study the impact on emissions and to establish the resultant changes in rumen microflora composition – this is important work in the context of developing the best animal feeding strategies to reduce emissions. Field scale research with beef cattle has shown that reductions of approximately 20% in daily enteric methane output are possible when coconut oil is added to the diet at a rate of 250 grams per day. However this practice is likely to be feasible only in part of an animal’s life (i.e. the finishing winter when concentrates are being fed which allow delivery of the oil), and thus the reduction in lifetime emissions would be 5-6%. Coconut oil is expensive and the measure will likely have some cost of implementation at farm level, depending on the relative costs of oil, other feedstuffs and the value of beef or milk output. The feasibility of using other cheaper oils e.g. soya oil is being explored. A range of commonly used concentrates are being examined to determine if one is more suitable than another in terms of reducing methane emissions. Animal Breeding and Genomics The Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF)xvii is the only organisation approved by DAFM to produce genetic evaluations for beef and dairy cattle. These evaluations (breeding indexes) are a measure of how profitable each animal is and they are designed to produce an efficient, healthy animal that will thrive in our unique grass based production conditions. The indexes are constantly evolving to take account of various future pressures/costs and they are designed not only to promote economic efficiency but also environmental efficiency as well. National breeding objectives have been developed for dairy cattle, beef cattle and sheep and the primary focus is to continually develop, refine and disseminate the usefulness of these indexes in breeding more profitable animals for the entire agri-food industry. Animal breeding and genetics research, in collaboration with other research departments at Teagasc, is developing tools to more accurately identify the most profitable animal for current and future production systems. ICBF and Teagasc developed the first ever national custom genotyping chip (International Dairy and Beef 19k SNP chip) for Ireland which facilitates genomic selection, undertakes parentage testing 65 where the parents are genotyped on the traditional microsatellite technology, screens for lethal recessive genes, and tests for congenital genetic defects and major genes. The tool is sufficiently flexible to add genetic mutations as they are discovered and research is underway to develop the pipelines for the detection of congenital defects using a real-life scenario detected in an Irish dairy bull in 2013. The usage of genomically selected bulls continues to increase (54% of inseminations in 2013). A major initiative by ICBF and Teagasc which began in 2013 was to genotype all pedigree male calves born in Irish herds. This will position Ireland extremely well for the implementation of genomic selection in beef cattle. A new G€N€ IR€LAND22 beef program was established in 2012, with the objective of doubling the rate of genetic gain in beef by 2020. The new G€N€ IR€LAND maternal breeding programme is currently being rolled out to the industry. The new terminal and maternal indexes have also been rolled out to the industry, with a lot of interest being generated through the Beef Technology Adoption Programme discussion group. Teagasc and ICBF have now established the Next Generation Dairy Herd at Teagasc, Moorepark, Fermoy, Co. Cork to generate accurate data for future‐proofing the Economic Breeding Index, data for research (into genetic and genomic evaluations) and high EBI bulls suitable for the G€N€ IR€LAND dairy breeding programme. Key data collected from these animals include milk, fertility, health, disease and feed efficiency. The new suckler herd at Teagasc Grange, Co. Meath has also been established with 165 animals purchased (75 from the dairy herd and 90 from the beef herd). Within each of these groups, high and low genetic merit animals have been targeted, which will allow accurate evaluation of the new maternal indexes. The heifers will be bred in Spring 2013 and will calve for the first time in Spring 2014. Soil research The ‘Gaseous Emissions and Land Use Network – GHG Ireland’, is a Network that aims to bring together all principal investigators working in the field of agricultural climate change research during a 4 year initiative. The main focus of this network is to improve our understanding of carbon stock changes in agricultural soils in order to contribute to the development of a more robust inventory and underpin future accounting for these categories. Research Stimulus Fund Ongoing research will continue to contribute to further options to reduce emissions from agriculture. The Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine has committed almost €20m to climate change research projects since 2005 under the Research Stimulus Fund and continues to monitor ongoing research both nationally and internationally Other Forestry Research DAFM funds research on the wood energy supply chain and related topics under the national forest research programme. Teagasc, the farm advisory service, provides advice and information on the harvesting and processing of forest-based biomass. DAFM also supports a wood fuel quality 22 http://cattle.ie/services/geneireland/dairy/index.php 66 assurance scheme in partnership with the Irish Bioenergy Association, and an advisory service on wood fuels at http://www.woodenergy.ie/ INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INITIATIVES: Ireland is one of the founding members of the Global Research Alliance – GRA. The GRA on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases was launched in December 2009 and now has 40 member countries from all regions of the world. The Alliance is focused on research, development and extension of technologies and practices that will help deliver ways to grow more food (and more climate-resilient food systems) without growing greenhouse gas emissions. Ireland is an active founding member of the GRA participating in the Cropland and Livestock research groups and in the Governance group. Due to the importance of the agriculture sector to our economy, we are among the leading countries in GHG research in the sector and have much to offer the Alliance. Climate & Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) – The CCAC Mission is to accelerate the transition to local energy systems through innovative policies and programs that deliver cost-effective renewable energy, strengthen local economies, foster environmental sustainability, and provide energy resilience. DECLG are the lead on this mainly from the point of view of clean air however there is also a work stream related to control of short lived climate gases from agriculture such as methane. Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE-JPI). The FACCE-JPI brings together 21 countries who are committed to building an integrated European Research Area addressing the interconnected challenges of sustainable agriculture, food security and impacts of climate change. FACCE-JPI provides and steers research to support sustainable agricultural production and economic growth, to contribute to a European bio-based economy, while maintaining and restoring ecosystem services under current and future climate change. 5 core research themes: Sustainable food security under climate change, based on an integrated food systems perspective: modelling, benchmarking and policy research perspective Environmentally sustainable growth and intensification of agricultural systems under current and future climate and resource availability Assessing and reducing trade-offs between food production, biodiversity and ecosystem services Adaptation to climate change throughout the whole food chain, including market repercussions Greenhouse gas mitigation: nitrous oxide and methane mitigation in the agriculture and forestry sector, carbon sequestration, fossil fuel substitution and mitigating GHG emissions induced by indirect land use change Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Programme of Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) - CGIAR research is dedicated to reducing rural poverty, increasing food security, improving human health and nutrition, and ensuring more sustainable management 67 of natural resources. It is carried out by 15 centres that are members of the CGIAR Consortium in close collaboration with hundreds of partner organizations, including national and regional research institutes, civil society organizations, academia, and the private sector. FAO Committee on World Food Security – High Level Panel of Experts (CFS-HLPE) - The HLPE on food security and nutrition has been created as part of the reform of the international governance of food security to advise the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) which is the foremost intergovernmental and international platform dealing with food security and nutrition. Its key functions are to: Assess and analyze the current state of food security and nutrition and its underlying causes. Provide scientific and knowledge-based analysis and advice on specific policyrelevant issues, utilizing existing high quality research, data and technical studies. Identify emerging issues, and help members prioritize future actions and attentions on key focal areas. Ireland is one of the founder Partners and funders of the FAO’s Livestock Environmental and Assessment Performance (LEAP) partnership - LEAP aims to develop methodologies and guidance for measuring the environmental footprint of livestock supply chains and to communicate this work effectively to livestock stakeholders to support the overall goal of “improved environmental performance of the livestock sector, while considering economic and social viability.” DAFM provided funding for the partnership, while Teagasc represents Ireland on the Steering Group and has provided a Walsh Fellow to the Partnership. Other partners include the Governments of New Zealand, France, Netherlands and Switzerland, as well as industry stakeholder groups. Global Alliance for Climate Smart Agriculture (GACSA) – Ireland with DAFM as lead in conjunction with Irish Aid and DECLG was one of the first nations to pledge its support to the GACSA at the 1 day UN Climate Summit in New York on 23rd Sept 2014. The aim is to scale up efforts to make agricultural practices more resilient to environmental pressure & enable 500 million farmers to practice climate-smart farming by 2030. Other early signatories came from Fr, Lith, Esp, Swe, UK, as well as the US, New Zealand, Mexico, Switzerland, Vietnam & Japan. Other important stakeholders to the climate-savvy plans include the Kellogg Company, Walmart, McDonald’s, the World Farmers’ Organisation, World Food Programme, World Bank & International Fund for Agricultural Development – with the latter two announcing that 100% of their agricultural investment portfolios – about $11 billion – would be climate-smart by 2018. The US and Dutch Governments have been to the forefront in efforts to form this alliance which is a response to the need to sustainably produce enough food for our growing population in the face of climate change. The concept of Climate Smart Agriculture is formed around the following three pillars: Sustainable and equitable increases in agricultural productivity and incomes; Greater resilience of food systems and farming livelihoods; and Reduction and/or removal of greenhouse gas emissions associated with agriculture (including the relationship between agriculture and ecosystems), where possible. The GACSA will enable governments and other stakeholders to make these transformations in ways that bridge traditional sectoral, organizational and public/private boundaries. The GACSA will support other international processes, related to agriculture, food security and climate change. 68 Lastly on behalf of the FACCE-JPI and the CFS-HLPE, Teagasc have been engaged with a number of the international research initiatives on agriculture and climate change listed above and with the Belmont forum & the Wheat Initative. The aim of the engagement is to establish methods to work together and coordinate their activities and explore the potential for shared actions that will be of direct relevance to the ongoing United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 69 Reference Notes i i Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013. Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 Report: Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva. ii http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf iii http://issuu.com/teagasc/docs/tresearch_summer_2013 iv Air Emissions :: Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland v http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/air/airemissions/GHG_report2014.pdf vi http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/2030/docs/com_2014_15_en.pdf vii NESC Secretarial, 2013. Ireland and the Climate Change Challenge: Connecting How Much with How To/ viii Schulte, R.P.O and Lanigan, G, 2011l Irish Agriculture, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change: opportunities, obstacles and proposed solutions. http://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2011/61/61_ClimateBillSubmission.pdf ix Schulte, R.P.O. and Donnellan, T, 2012. A Marginal Cost Abatement Curve for Irish Agriculture. http://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2012/1186/1186_Marginal_Abatement_Cost_Curve_for_Irish_Agriculture .pdf x Schulte et al 2013. Carbon Neutrality as a horizon point for Irish Agriculture Teagasc Carbon Neutrality as a Horizon Point xi http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/external/livestock-gas/full_text_en.pdf xii /Food Harvest 2020/2020FoodHarvestEng240810.pdf xiii http://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2013/2890/DairyRoadMap2020.pdf xiv http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/ruralenvironment/climatechange/FoodHarvest2020Environm entalAnalysisFINAL050214.pdf xv http://www.teagasc.ie/whats_new/roadmaps.asp xv http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/organic/eu-policy/european-action-plan/index_en.htm xv xvii http://www.icbf.com/ http://www.icbf.com/ 70