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Thoughts for CODC
regarding climate change
Greg Bodeker
Presented to the Central Otago District Council
11 November 2015
Overview
A little bit about me (but not too much) and Bodeker
Scientific.
Some science.
Coming changes in climate for Central Otago.
More important things that need to be thought about.
Outcomes from a Community Climate Change forum held in
Alexandra on Saturday evening.
Questions and Answers (40 minutes).
Greg Bodeker
Director of Bodeker Scientific (more on the next page).
PhD in physics.
Authored or co-authored 115 papers in the international peer
reviewed literature.
Lead author/author on a number of WMO, UNEP and IPCC reports.
Named New Zealand contributor to the award of the 2007 Nobel
Peace Prize to the IPCC (shared with Al Gore).
Adjunct Professor with the New Zealand Climate Change Research
Institute at Victoria University of Wellington.
Recipient of the Edward Kidson Medal, The Meteorological Society
of New Zealand, 2014.
Recipient of Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund support.
Co-Chair of GRUAN (GCOS Reference Upper Air Network).
Associate editor for Journal of Climate.
See http://www.bodekerscientific.com/people/greg-bodeker
Bodeker Scientific
Scientists
Greg Bodeker
Karin Kreher
Laura Revell
Stefanie Kremser
Jono Conway
Admin
Nicky Brookes
Emily Boud
Interns
Troy Smith
Alex Schwertheim
Tom Pedofsky
PhD students
Helena Södergren
Jordis Tradowsky
Chris Cameron
IT support
Jared Lewis
Ben Lewis
Climate Futures for New Zealand
http://futureextremes.ccii.org.nz/
Climate change where we are
The results
Significantly more days with daily maximum temperatures going
above 25°C and way more days with daily maximum temperatures
going above 30°C.
Daily minimum temperatures for Alexandra
Fewer frosts.
What about rainfall?
No clearly discernible change in rainfall in
Alexandra, but we should also consider rainfall
changes in the Clutha catchment, changes in
the seasonality of rainfall, and snowpack as a
reservoir for summer-time irrigation.
What about the rest of New Zealand?
Number of days with Tmax>25°C in
Number
of days
with Tmax>25°C in
2100 under
RCP8.5
2015
Climate Models or Witchcraft?
GCM
Global Climate Model
On each grid point: Temp, moisture, wind, pressure
“Sub grid-scale” processes are “parameterised”:
clouds, vegetation, surface heat exchange,…
Discretizes the equations for fluid motion and
integrates these forward in time.
Contains parameterizations for processes on smaller
scales.
Used in IPCC 5th assessment report.
But what should CODC do?
Should CODC be spending a lot of time and energy doing its
bit to mitigate climate change?
No!
Should CODC be spending a lot of time and energy planning
adaptation to climate change?
Maybe a little…
Should CODC be thinking of how to position Central Otago to
capitalize on the opportunities posed by the ‘second order’
effects of climate change (tourist climate guilt, food miles,
changing marlets, changing consumer perceptions)?
Yes!
What ideas are there around this…
Things for CODC to think about
Enhance Central Otago as an attractive destination for
climate sensitive tourists → sell a solution/dream. But define
very clearly what you are selling.
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Fun fossil fuel free holidays (F4 holidays).
F4 certification system for the tourist service industry.
Incentives for solar PV, solar water heating etc.
Create something unique and sell it.
Promote Central Otago as a place for high earning, innovative
people to live and work → sell the lifestyle, create an
innovation hub, develop critical mass.
Investigate novel solutions to local problems that put Central
Otago ‘on the map’.
Raise awareness, not of the problems but of the
opportunities.
And you can and should do all of this even if you think climate
change is hogwash (and even if you’re right).
A central water-sourced heat pump
The Community Climate Change forum
Happened on 7 November 6:00-9:30 pm at the Community
Hall.
Sponsored primarily by the Deep South National Science
Challenge ($7000) as well as Wanaka Wastebusters ($500)
and the Otago Polytech Cromwell Campus ($500).
108 attendees.
Five discussion themes:
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Is climate change an issue and what can we do about it?
What does climate change mean for Central Otago businesses?
How can Central Otago people meet the challenge?
What opportunities can climate change create?
What hurdles prevent action and what information do we need?
Report has been written and two videos will be produced →
one for the Deep South Challenge and one for ‘us’.