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Download Avoiding dangerous climate change: Emissions pathways
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Avoiding dangerous climate change Dr Jason Lowe (Met Office) Dr Rachel Warren (Tyndall Centre) Dr Simon Buckle (Grantham Institute) www.avoid.uk.net AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Sectors and impacts indicators WATER water resources coastal flood FOOD crop suitability ENVIRONMENT soil carbon, ecosystem productivity biodiversity river flood crop productivity HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE heat effects heating/cooling needs Key findings • Strong mitigation action to limit temperature rise to below 2°C avoids many of the climate impacts. • …but not all the impacts are avoided. Some adaptation may still be needed • The earlier action is taken to reduce emissions then the more of the 21st century impacts are avoided. Strong action to limit to below 2°C avoid a large amount of the climate impacts that would otherwise accrue by the 2080s… 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Cooling requirements Soybean productivity Decreased crop suitability Coastal mangrove Coastal flood risk Fluvial flood risk 10 0 Increased water scarcity % of impacts avoided % of impacts avoided 2016-5-L AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Strong action to limit to below 2°C avoid a large amount of the climate impacts that would otherwise accrue by the 2080s… …… but even the most stringent mitigation will not avoid all impacts 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2016-5-L Cooling requirements Soybean productivity Decreased crop suitability Coastal mangrove Coastal flood risk Fluvial flood risk 10 0 Increased water scarcity % of impacts avoided % of impacts avoided Uncertainty in impacts due to global temperature projection and spatial pattern of climate change 21st century Increase in water stress 2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 Billions of people 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 BAU 2°C scenario Avoided impact Food security: % population at risk of hunger -12% today, grows to 60% in 2050 - 21% due to climate change; 1.1 billion people by 2100 - Early action reduces this by 27% Key findings • Strong mitigation action to limit temperature rise to below 2°C avoids many of the climate impacts. • …but not all the impacts are avoided. Some adaptation may still be needed • The earlier action is taken to reduce emissions then the more of the 21st century impacts are avoided. The earlier the peak in emissions, the greater the avoided impacts % of impacts avoided % of impacts avoided 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Cooling requirements Soybean productivity Decreased crop suitability Coastal mangrove Coastal flood risk Fluvial flood risk Increased water scarcity 0 AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 2016-5-L 2030-5-L