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45 CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH REPORT CCRR-45 Past, present, and future summer stream temperature in the Lake Simcoe watershed: brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat at risk Sustainability in a Changing Climate: An Overview of MNRF’s Climate Change Strategy (2011–2014) Climate change will affect all MNRF programs and the natural resources for which it has responsibility. This strategy confirms MNRF’s commitment to the Ontario government’s climate change initiatives such as the Go Green Action Plan on Climate Change and outlines research and management program priorities for the 2011–2014 period. Theme 1: Understand Climate Change MNRF will gather, manage, and share information and knowledge about how ecosystem composition, structure and function – and the people who live and work in them – will be affected by a changing climate. Strategies: • Communicate internally and externally to build awareness of the known and potential impacts of climate change and mitigation and adaptation options available to Ontarians. • Monitor and assess ecosystem and resource conditions to manage for climate change in collaboration with other agencies and organizations. • Undertake and support research designed to improve understanding of climate change, including improved temperature and precipitation projections, ecosystem vulnerability assessments, and improved models of the carbon budget and ecosystem processes in the managed forest, the settled landscapes of southern Ontario, and the forests and wetlands of the Far North. • Transfer science and understanding to decision-makers to enhance comprehensive planning and management in a rapidly changing climate. Theme 2: Mitigate Climate Change MNRF will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in support of Ontario’s greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. Strategies: • Continue to reduce emissions from MNRF operations though vehicle fleet renewal, converting to other high fuel efficiency/low-emissions equipment, demonstrating leadership in energy-efficient facility development, promoting green building materials and fostering a green organizational culture. • Facilitate the development of renewable energy by collaborating with other Ministries to promote the value of Ontario’s resources as potential green energy sources, making Crown land available for renewable energy development, and working with proponents to ensure that renewable energy developments are consistent with approval requirements and that other Ministry priorities are considered. • Provide leadership and support to resource users and industries to reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon storage by undertaking afforestation, protecting natural heritage areas, exploring opportunities for forest carbon management to increase carbon uptake, and promoting the increased use of wood products over energy-intensive, non-renewable alternatives. • Help resource users and partners participate in a carbon offset market, by working with our partners to ensure that a robust trading system is in place based on rules established in Ontario (and potentially in other jurisdictions), continuing to examine the mitigation potential of forest carbon management in Ontario, and participating in the development of protocols and policies for forest and land-based carbon offset credits. Theme 3: Help Ontarians Adapt MNRF will provide advice and tools and techniques to help Ontarians adapt to climate change. Strategies include: • Maintain and enhance emergency management capability to protect life and property during extreme events such as flooding, drought, blowdown and wildfire. • Use scenarios and vulnerability analyses to develop and employ adaptive solutions to known and emerging issues. • Encourage and support industries, resource users and communities to adapt, by helping to develop understanding and capabilities of partners to adapt their practices and resource use in a changing climate. • Evaluate and adjust policies and legislation to respond to climate change challenges. Past, present, and future summer stream temperature in the Lake Simcoe watershed: brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat at risk Richard T. Di Rocco, Nicholas E. Jones, and Cindy Chu Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Science and Research Branch, Aquatic Research and Monitoring Section 2016 Science and Research Branch • Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry © 2016, Queen’s Printer for Ontario Printed in Ontario, Canada To request copies of this publication: [email protected] Cette publication hautement spécialisée, Past, present, and future summer stream temperature in the Lake Simcoe watershed: brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat at risk n’est disponible qu’en anglais en vertu du Règlement 671/92 qui en exempte l’application de la Loi sur les services en français. Pour obtenir de l’aide en français, veuillez communiquer avec le ministère des Richesses naturelles et des Forêts au [email protected]. Some of the information in this document may not be compatible with assistive technologies. If you need any of the information in an alternate format, please contact [email protected] Cover image: Brook trout in the Uxbridge Brook, ON. Photo Credit: Michael Leung Cite this report as: Di Rocco R.T., N.E. Jones and C. Chu. 2015. Past, present, and future summer stream temperature in the Lake Simcoe watershed: brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat at risk. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Science and Research Branch, Peterborough, Ontario. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45. This paper contains recycled materials. i Abstract The thermal characteristics of streams and rivers play an important role in defining the amount of habitat available for salmonid populations in local geographic regions across Ontario. Species-specific thermal tolerances are the critical biological elements that define these thermal habitats. Using a combination of climatic, geological, hydrological, and land cover variables, we predict stream temperatures throughout the Simcoe watershed with a focus on brook trout that require cold water <19°C. Based on the thermal model, we predict past, current, and future stream temperatures in the Lake Simcoe watershed. Presently, most headwater streams in the Lake Simcoe watershed are coldwater habitat, but the model projects a substantial decrease in the number of coldwater streams over the next 50 years. An observed versus predicted plot found that the model explained 54% of the variation in water temperature and that the root mean square error was 1.9°C. The model overpredicted temperatures below 13°C and underpredicted temperature above 22°C. Using climate scenarios for different time stanzas, coldwater thermal habitat has decreased by 27% since pre-European development and may decrease another 59% by 2065 under the A2 Regional Climate Model projection. Coolwater habitat has increased by 284% and will increase 687% by 2065. Similar to other brook trout occupancy and thermal models, reach contributing area, wooded land (%), mean slope (%), mean upstream overburden (m), and mean monthly air temperature (°C) were retained by the model. This spatially-explicit thermal modelling can inform restoration and climate change adaptation efforts within the Lake Simcoe watershed, particularly the priority areas for the maintenance and restoration of wooded riparian areas. Résumé Températures estivales passées, présentes et futures des cours d’eau du bassin hydrographique du lac Simcoe : l’habitat de l’omble de fontaine (Salvelinus fontinalis) est en péril Les caractéristiques thermales des ruisseaux et des rivières jouent un rôle important pour déterminer l’ampleur de l’habitat dont disposent les salmonidés dans les régions géographiques locales en Ontario. Les tolérances thermiques particulières à chaque espèce sont les facteurs biologiques essentiels pour établir quels sont ces habitats thermiques. À l’aide d’une combinaison de variables climatiques, géologiques, hydrologiques et concernant la couverture terrestre, nous prédisons la température des cours d’eau dans l’ensemble du bassin hydrographique du lac Simcoe, en nous focalisant sur l’omble de fontaine, qui a besoin d’une eau froide à < 19°C. À partir de ce modèle thermique, nous établissons les températures passées, présentes et futures des cours d’eau du bassin hydrographique du lac Simcoe. Actuellement, la plupart des cours supérieurs des cours d’eau du bassin hydrographique du lac Simcoe sont des habitats à eau froide, mais le modèle prévoit une diminution substantielle des cours d’eau à eau froide au cours des 50 prochaines années. En comparant les prédictions à ce qui a été effectivement observé, on a établi que le modèle expliquait 54 % des variations des températures de l’eau et que l’erreur-type était de 1,9°C. Le modèle a surestimé les températures inférieures à 13°C et sous-estimé les températures supérieures à 22°C. En utilisant des scénarios climatiques pour différentes séquences temporelles, il a été déterminé que l’habitat thermique à eau froide avait diminué de 27 % depuis avant l’arrivée des Européens et pourrait encore diminuer de 59 % d’ici 2065, si l’on se fie au modèle de prévisions climatiques régionales selon le scénario A2. Les habitats à eau tempérée ont augmenté de 284 % et augmenteront de 687 % d’ici 2065. À l’instar d’autres modèles thermiques et d’occupation de l’omble de fontaine, le modèle utilisé a tenu compte de la zone d’alimentation, des terres boisées (%), de la pente moyenne (%), de la quantité moyenne de morts-terrains en amont (m) et de la moyenne de la température mensuelle de l’air (oC). Cette modélisation thermique spatialement explicite peut informer les efforts de restauration et d’adaptation aux changements climatiques du bassin hydrographique du lac Simcoe, particulièrement dans les zones boisées riveraines dont l’entretien et la restauration sont prioritaires. ii Acknowledgements Funding for this project was provided through the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan. The authors thank Adam Challice, Gabrielle Gilchrist, and Elizabeth Stanley of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry and Rob Wilson of the Lake Simcoe Conservation Authority for assistance during the project. iii Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... i Résumé.......................................................................................................................................... i Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................ ii Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1 Materials and methods................................................................................................................... 1 Data collection.......................................................................................................................... 1 Modelling.................................................................................................................................. 2 Hindcasting and forecasting..................................................................................................... 2 Results........................................................................................................................................... 3 Discussion...................................................................................................................................... 6 References..................................................................................................................................... 8 Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45 Introduction If all species occupy a Hutchinsonian niche, a hypervolume with dimensions equal to the number of different conditions and resources an organism requires to survive and reproduce (Hutchinson 1957), changes to environmental factors will result in range shifts of those species. Water temperature is one of the most important environmental factors influencing stream fish habitat and assemblage patterns (Brazner et al. 2005). Stream temperature is positively correlated with air temperature (Pilgrim et al. 1998), and as such, increasing air temperatures driven by global climate change will have significant impacts on the thermal habitats of streams and their fish assemblages. Stream fishes such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdii) that prefer cold water (<19°C) are particularly at risk from warming water temperatures. In Canada, coldwater species ranges are expected to decline, with brook trout projected to lose 49% of their national range by 2050 (Chu et al. 2005). Overly warm water temperatures can reduce growth, lower sperm motility, inhibit ovulation, and reduce egg viability (Hokanson et al. 1973). In Maryland, extirpations of brook trout have coincided with substantial increases in water temperature (Stranko et al. 2008), indicating the inability for this species to adapt to warmer water conditions. The largest (72 km2) inland lake in southern Ontario, Lake Simcoe is fed by 35 tributaries (Palmer et al. 2011), some of which contain indigenous brook trout (Holm et al. 2009). In the 1910s, these tributaries were intentionally stocked with non-native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) (Kerr and Lasenby 2000) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) (Lasenby and Kerr 2001). Of these three salmonids, brook trout occupy the coldest niche (Wenger et al. 2011). The combination of warming water temperatures and competition with non-indigenous salmonids is likely reducing brook trout biomass (Myers et al. 2014). Brook trout have been identified in the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan fisheries objectives and Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy (LSRCA 2016) because of their sensitivity to warming temperatures and land-use change in the watershed. The fish community objectives specify the need to maintain existing brook trout populations and restore coldwater tributary habitat. As part of the tributary monitoring program implemented by LSRCA, water temperature loggers have been deployed throughout the watershed for the past 13 years. In this report, we use these water temperature data and a combination of climatic, geological, hydrological, and land cover variables to model current summer temperatures of tributaries throughout the Lake Simcoe watershed. Identifying tributaries with temperatures within the optimum range for brook trout development (10°C –19°C (Hokanson et al. 1973)) is the main objective of the project. We use climate models to project changes in the water temperatures of tributaries in the Lake Simcoe watershed 50 years in the future, which will inform better conservation decisions. In addition to predicting future stream temperatures, we use historic data to hindcast stream temperatures in the watershed. We hypothesize that because of the positive relationship between air and in-stream temperature, increasing air temperatures will result in a loss of coldwater habitat. In addition, we hypothesize that some coldwater habitat has already been lost as a result of changes to land cover caused by human development and warming air temperatures. Materials and methods Data collection Hourly water temperature was measured at 312 sites in the Lake Simcoe watershed between 2003 and 2015 by LSRCA using water temperature data loggers (models: HOBO TidbiT v2 and HOBO Pendant). The loggers were placed as closely to the stream bed as possible without resting on the bottom (LSRCA 1 2 Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45 2013). This hourly data was used to calculate the mean monthly water temperature during each summer month (June, July, and August). Every site contributed 2 – 35 mean monthly temperatures for a total of 1952 observations in the dataset. Monthly stream temperature was modelled using six characteristics: riparian land cover, mean monthly air temperature, reach contributing area, slope, elevation, and overburden. The riparian land cover characteristic was split into five variables, accounting for percent land cover of the following types: wetland, wooded, open land, open water, and developed land. These variables were created by categorizing the 27 broad land cover types defined in the Ontario Land Cover Data Base (OMNRF 2016) into the five categories (Appendix A). The percent values were arcsine transformed. Mean monthly air temperature and annual precipitation was acquired through historical climate data (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2015). The weather data was recorded at the Barrie-Oro weather station for 2004–2015. This station did not have data for 2003, so the Shanty Bay weather station, 11.3 km away, was used instead. Overburden thickness for each catchment area was obtained from the bedrock topography and overburden thickness mapping, southern Ontario layer (Gao et al. 2006). Reach contributing area, slope, and elevation were determined using the Ontario Integrated Hydrology Data (OMNR 2012). The sum of the upstream base flow index (BFI) was obtained from the work of Neff et al. (2005). The reach contributing area and BFI values were log transformed. Modelling A model was created using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method. The LASSO is a form of regression analysis that penalizes coefficients such that variable selection occurs by allowing the coefficients of variables to shrink to a value of zero. This creates an interpretable model without overfitting the data (Tibshirani 1996). Using the GLMNET package (Friedman et al. 2010) in R (R Core Team 2015), the regularization path of the LASSO was computed for a grid of values, represented by the penalty parameter λ. As λ increases, coefficients shrink towards zero. To minimize the estimate of expected prediction error, the value of λ was chosen adaptively using 10-fold cross-validation (Hastie et al. 2009). One standard error of the λ with the minimum mean cross-validated error was selected to generate the most regularized model (Hastie and Qian 2014). Hindcasting and forecasting The resulting model was used to predict the mean monthly temperature for each reach in the watershed. Air temperature and land cover were identified as two of the predictors of in-stream temperature. Hindcasting was used to investigate how stream temperatures in the watershed may have already changed. A portion of the open land (agriculture) and the developed land variables were added to the wooded land cover variable to create an approximation of the land cover distribution prior to human development. Historical air temperatures from 1953–1965 were used in the model. This temperature data was collected prior to the increase in global temperatures (≈ 0.2°C per decade) that occurred after 1975 (Hansen et al. 2006). To explore the potential impacts of future climate change on stream temperatures, the air temperatures were projected for the Barrie weather station for 2053–2065 using the A2 Canadian Regional Climate Model (Version 4.2.3; Environment and Climate Change Canada 2014). The land cover variables were unchanged from the present values. The estimated lengths of coldwater streams (<19°C) in the watershed for all three time periods (1953–1965, 2003–2015, and 2053–2065) were then compared. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45 Results The regularization path of the LASSO was computed for a grid of values, represented by λ (Figure 1). Using ten-fold cross-validation, λ was set to 0.21. As a result, the percent open water, percent wetland, percent open land, percent developed land, mean elevation, BFI, and annual precipitation variables were excluded from the final model (Table 1). An observed versus predicted plot found that the model explained 54% of the variation in water temperature, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was 1.9°C (Figure 2). The model overpredicted temperatures below 13°C and underpredicted temperature above 22°C (Figure 2). Historically, an estimated 87% of the watershed was cold (<19°C) during July (Table 2) with most of the cool (19°C –25°C) habitat limited to high order streams (Figure 3). Presently, 64% of streams in the watershed are cold during July (Table 2). Most of the headwater streams remain cold, but the Ramara Creeks sub-watershed lost most of the cold water habitat in the area (Figure 3). The projection estimates only 12% of streams will be cold 50 years in the future (Table 2). These remaining coldwater streams are headwaters on the Oak Ridges Moraine, in the southern portion of the watershed, and in the Lovers Creek sub-watershed, south of Barrie. Figure 1. The regularization path of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. As λ increases, the regression coefficients shrink towards zero. The upper x-axis indicates the number of variables remaining in the model. The dotted line is the value of λ selected through cross validation. Table 1. The regression equation of the final model. Variables with a coefficient value of zero were excluded. Variable (units) Coefficient Intercept – 2.20 Reach contributing area (m2) 0.849 Wooded land (%) – 1.56 Mean slope (%) Mean upstream overburden (m) Mean monthly air temperature (°C) – 9.16 – 0.0110 0.437 3 4 Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45 Figure 2. A scatter plot of observed versus predicted mean monthly water temperatures. The solid line indicates the regression of these points. The dotted line indicates a 1:1 relationship of predicted and observed temperatures. Table 2. The lengths of cold and cool tributaries in the past (1953–1965), present (2003–2015), and future (2053–2065). Numbers in parentheses are percentage change. Temperature Past (km) Present (km) Future (km) Cold (<19°C) 1773 1294 (73%) 241 (14%) Cool (19–25°C) 261 740 (284%) 1793 (687%) 5 Climate Change Research Report CCRR-44 Figure 3. Maps of the Lake Simcoe watershed with the streams coloured by predicted temperature. The left map is the hindcasted stream temperature based on mean July air temperature during 1953–1965 and land cover largely forested pre European settlement. The centre map is the predicted stream temperature for 2003–2015. The right map shows the stream temperatures based on air temperature predicted for 2053–2065. The width of the streams increases with reach contributing area. The land is shaded based on elevation. 6 Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45 Discussion Increasing air temperatures and changes to land cover as a result of agriculture, mining, and anthropogenic structures have already caused a loss of coldwater habitat in the Lake Simcoe watershed. Presently, most headwater streams in the Lake Simcoe watershed are coldwater habitat, but the model projects a substantial decrease in the amount of coldwater streams over the next 50 years. This change would adversely affect all coldwater species in the region. Brook trout, a highly prized game fish (Scott and Crossman 1998) and one of only two indigenous salmonids in southern Ontario, faces large reductions in thermal habitat and competition from non-indigenous species that are better suited to these water temperatures. Most variables automatically selected using the LASSO method have been used in other studies modelling brook trout distribution or water temperature (e.g., Wehrly et al. 2009, Kanno et al. 2015). The percent wooded land variable was the only land cover variable that remained in the model. Kanno et al. (2015) found forested land was one of the most important variables for detecting brook trout. Overburden thickness is a variable not regularly incorporated into these models. The southern edge of the Lake Simcoe watershed is dominated by the Oak Ridges Moraine. A moraine is a glacial deposit of soil and rock and is considered overburden. The Oak Ridges Moraine is a significant source of groundwater for southern Ontario (Howard et al. 1995), so overburden thickness is likely correlated to groundwater discharge in this watershed. BFI and annual precipitation are sometimes included in water temperatures models, but in this case, these variables were not helpful in predicting stream temperature. The model performed poorly at very cold observations, between 10°C –13°C. The inability to predict these coldest reaches indicates that an important factor is likely missing from the model. It is important to remember stream temperatures are not homogenous within a reach. Sites of upwelling groundwater can create patches that are 3°C – 8°C cooler than ambient stream temperature (Ebersole et al. 2001). These very cold observations may have been from temperature loggers inadvertently placed in these coldwater patches. Unfortunately, with no groundwater discharge layer, it is impossible to predict these coldwater patches. Despite the poor performance at very low temperatures, the model was reasonably accurate at predicted temperatures above and below 19°C. This is a critical value for brook trout as temperatures above 19°C are considered suboptimum (Hokanson et al. 1973). When temperatures reach 20°C, nonindigenous brown trout will out-compete brook trout (Taniguchi et al. 1998). Because brook trout move upstream during the summer as water temperatures increase (Peterson and Fausch 2003), individual populations of brook trout may become trapped in headwater streams that are too warm. Physical barriers, such as dams, may exacerbate the issue by only allowing one-way, downstream movement. This could cause local extinction events similar to those observed by Stranko et al. (2008) in Maryland. Brook trout have a strong natal homing tendency. O’Connor and Power (1973) found 99.5% of displaced brook trout returned to their natal stream. These local extinctions could result in a significant loss of indigenous brook trout biodiversity in the Lake Simcoe watershed. The 50-year scale used in this projection provides time for the genetic diversity of brook trout in the watershed to be assessed and protected if necessary. A recognized issue with the projection is that the water temperature increases uniformly in all streams. In reality, some streams will warm more than others. Mean July air temperature is expected to increase by 4°C, but mean annual temperature is only expected to increase by 2°C (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2014). Groundwater temperatures follow mean annual air temperatures (Meisner et al. 1988), so streams with relatively high discharge of groundwater will see less warming than streams with low groundwater discharge (Chu et al. 2008). Wisconsin incorporated a soil-water-balance model, which Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45 allowed for the estimation of variability in groundwater recharge, to create a stream temperature model that explained 76% of the variation in mean daily stream temperature (Stewart et al. 2015). In addition to the lack of groundwater data, increasing air temperature may have other effects on the watershed that are not included in this projection. Land cover variables could change as the increased risk of forest fire reduces stream cover or wetlands dry due to increased rates of evapotranspiration. Reduced meltwater in the spring could reduce groundwater recharge (Taylor et al. 2013) and alter flow regimes. These effects and their interactions are complex and not incorporated in the model. As such, the projected increase in water temperature should be treated as an approximation. Percentage of wooded riparian area significantly impacted stream water temperatures, and the maintenance or restoration of riparian cover presents a tangible management and stewardship action to maintain or rehabilitate coldwater habitats. In conservation, triage is defined as prioritizing limited resources to maximize conservation returns (Bottril et al. 2008). This model allows for prioritizing of conservation effort within the Lake Simcoe watershed. Resources that would have been spent on coldwater restoration or protection in an area that is unlikely to remain cold due to changes in global climate could be used on alternative projects instead. The usefulness of this model is in the foresight it provides to conservation decision makers. 7 8 Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45 References Bottrill, M.C., L.N. Joseph, J. Carwardine, M. Bode, C. Cook, E.T. Game, H. Grantham, S. Kark, S. Linke, E. McDonald-Madden, R.L. Pressey, S. Walker, K.A. Wilson and H.P. Possingham. 2008. 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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(34): 14175–141. 9 Climate Change Report Series CCRR-01 Wotton, M., K. Logan and R. McAlpine. 2005. Climate Change and the Future Fire Environment in Ontario: Fire Occurrence and Fire Management Impacts in Ontario Under a Changing Climate. CCRR-02 Boivin, J., J.-N. Candau, J. Chen, S. Colombo and M. TerMikaelian. 2005. The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Large-Scale Forest Carbon Project: A Summary. CCRR-03 Colombo, S.J., W.C. Parker, N. Luckai, Q. Dang and T. Cai. 2005. The Effects of Forest Management on Carbon Storage in Ontario’s Forests. CCRR-04 Hunt, L.M. and J. Moore. 2006. The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Recreational Fishing in Northern Ontario. CCRR-05 Colombo, S.J., D.W. McKenney, K.M. Lawrence and P.A. Gray. 2007. Climate Change Projections for Ontario: Practical Information for Policymakers and Planners. CCRR-06 Lemieux, C.J., D.J. Scott, P.A. Gray and R.G. Davis. 2007. Climate Change and Ontario’s Provincial Parks: Towards an Adaptation Strategy. CCRR-07 Carter, T., W. Gunter, M. Lazorek and R. Craig. 2007. Geological Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide: A Technology Review and Analysis of Opportunities in Ontario. CCRR-08 Browne, S.A. and L.M Hunt. 2007. Climate Change and Nature-based Tourism, Outdoor Recreation, and Forestry in Ontario: Potential Effects and Adaptation Strategies. CCRR-09 Varrin, R. J. Bowman and P.A. Gray. 2007. The Known and Potential Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Ontario’s Terrestrial Ecosystems: Case Studies and Recommendations for Adaptation. CCRR-11 Dove-Thompson, D. C. Lewis, P.A. Gray, C. Chu and W. Dunlop. 2011. A Summary of the Effects of Climate Change on Ontario’s Aquatic Ecosystems. CCRR-12 Colombo, S.J. 2008. Ontario’s Forests and Forestry in a Changing Climate. CCRR-13 Candau, J.-N. and R. Fleming. 2008. Forecasting the Response to Climate Change of the Major Natural Biotic Disturbance Regime in Ontario’s Forests: The Spruce Budworm. CCRR-14 Minns, C.K., B.J. Shuter and J.L. McDermid. 2009. Regional Projections of Climate Change Effects on Ontario Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush) Populations. CCRR-15 Subedi, N., M. Sharma, and J. Parton. 2009. An Evaluation of Site Index Models for Young Black Spruce and Jack Pine Plantations in a Changing Climate. CCRR-16 McKenney, D.W., J.H. Pedlar, K. Lawrence, P.A. Gray, S.J. Colombo and W.J. Crins. 2010. Current and Projected Future Climatic Conditions for Ecoregions and Selected Natural Heritage Areas in Ontario. Adaptation Options for Ontario’s Clay Belt – A Case Study. CCRR-25 Bowman, J. and C. Sadowski. 2012. Vulnerability of Furbearers in the Clay Belt to Climate Change. CCRR-26 Rempel, R.S. 2012. Effects of Climate Change on Moose Populations: A Vulnerability Analysis for the Clay Belt Ecodistrict (3E-1) in Northeastern Ontario. CCRR-27 Minns, C.K., B.J. Shuter and S. Fung. 2012. Regional Projections of Climate Change Effects on Ice Cover and Open-Water Duration for Ontario Lakes CCRR-28 Lemieux, C.J., P. A. Gray, D.J. Scott, D.W. McKenney and S. MacFarlane. 2012. Climate Change and the Lake Simcoe Watershed: A Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Heritage Areas and Nature-Based Tourism. CCRR-29 Hunt, L.M. and B. Kolman. 2012. Selected Social Implications of Climate Change for Ontario’s Ecodistrict 3E-1 (The Clay Belt). CCRR-30 Chu, C. and F. Fischer. 2012. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Aquatic Ecosystems in the Clay Belt Ecodistrict (3E-1) of Northeastern Ontario. CCRR-31 Brinker, S. and C. Jones. 2012. The Vulnerability of Provincially Rare Species (Species at Risk) to Climate Change in the Lake Simcoe Watershed, Ontario, Canada CCRR-32 Parker, W.C., S. J. Colombo and M. Sharma. 2012. An Assessment of the Vulnerability of Forest Vegetation of Ontario’s Clay Belt (Ecodistrict 3E-1) to Climate Change. CCRR-33 Chen, J, S.J. Colombo, and M.T. Ter-Mikaelian. 2013. Carbon Stocks and Flows From Harvest to Disposal in Harvested Wood Products from Ontario and Canada. CCRR-34 McLaughlin, J. and K. Webster. 2013. Effects of a Changing Climate on Peatlands in Permafrost Zones: A Literature Review and Application to Ontario’s Far North. CCRR-35 Lafleur, B., N.J. Fenton and Y. Bergeron. 2013. The Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Growth and Development of Forested Peatlands in the Clay Belt (Ecodistrict 3E-1) of Northeastern Ontario. CCRR-36 Nituch, L. and J. Bowman. 2013. Community-Level Effects of Climate Change on Ontario’s Terrestrial Biodiversity. CCRR-37 Douglas, A., C. Lemieux, G. Nielsen, P. Gray, V Anderson and S. MacRitchie. Responding to the Effects of Climate Change in the Lake Simcoe Watershed: A Pilot Study to Inform Development of an Adaptation Strategy on a Watershed Basis CCRR-38 Furrer, M., M. Gillis, R. Mussakowski, T. Cowie and T. Veer. Monitoring Programs Sponsored by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and their Relevance to Climate Change. CCRR-17 Hasnain, S.S., C.K. Minns and B.J. Shuter. 2010. Key Ecological Temperature Metrics for Canadian Freshwater Fishes. CCRR-39 McKechnie, J., J. Chen, D. Vakalis and H. MacLean. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Inventory Model for Harvested Wood Product Manufacture in Ontario. CCRR-18 Scoular, M., R. Suffling, D. Matthews, M. Gluck and P. Elkie. 2010. Comparing Various Approaches for Estimating Fire Frequency: The Case of Quetico Provincial Park. CCRR-40 Minns, C.K., Shuter, B.J. and S. R. Fung. 2014. Regional Projections of Climate Change Effects on Ice Cover and Open-Water Duration for Ontario Lakes Using Updated Ice Date Models. CCRR-19 Eskelin, N., W. C. Parker, S.J. Colombo and P. Lu. 2011. Assessing Assisted Migration as a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Ontario’s Forests: Project Overview and Bibliography. CCRR-41 Minns, C.K., Shuter, B.J. and S. R. Fung. 2014. Regional Projections of Climate Change Effects on Thermal Habitat Space for Fishes in Stratified Ontario Lakes. CCRR-20 Stocks, B.J. and P.C. Ward. 2011. Climate Change, Carbon Sequestration, and Forest Fire Protection in the Canadian Boreal Zone. CCRR-42 Jones, N.E., Petreman, I.C. and B.J. Schmidt. 2015. High Flows and Freshet Timing in Canada: Observed Trends. CCRR-21 Chu, C. 2011. Potential Effects of Climate Change and Adaptive Strategies for Lake Simcoe and the Wetlands and Streams within the Watershed. CCRR-43 Chu, C. 2015. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Inland Aquatic Ecosystems in the Great Lakes Basin, Ontario. CCRR-22 Walpole, A and J. Bowman. 2011. Wildlife Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Assessment for the Lake Simcoe Watershed. CCRR-23 Evers, A.K., A.M. Gordon, P.A. Gray and W.I. Dunlop. 2012. Implications of a Potential Range Expansion of Invasive Earthworms in Ontario’s Forested Ecosystems: A Preliminary Vulnerability Analysis. CCRR-24 Lalonde, R., J. Gleeson, P.A. Gray, A. Douglas, C. Blakemore and L. Ferguson. 2012. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and CCRR-44 McDermid, J., S. Fera and A. Hogg. 2015. Climate change projections for Ontario: An updated synthesis for policymakers and planners. (0.10k P.R. 22 08 16) ISBN 978-1-4606-8515-0 (print) ISBN 978-1-4606-8517-4 (pdf) ISBN 978-1-4606-8516-7 (html)