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CLIMATE
CHANGE
RESEARCH
REPORT
CCRR-45
Past, present, and
future summer stream
temperature in the Lake
Simcoe watershed:
brook trout (Salvelinus
fontinalis) habitat at risk
Sustainability in a Changing Climate: An Overview of MNRF’s Climate Change Strategy (2011–2014)
Climate change will affect all MNRF programs and
the natural resources for which it has responsibility. This strategy confirms MNRF’s commitment to
the Ontario government’s climate change initiatives such as the Go Green Action Plan on Climate
Change and outlines research and management
program priorities for the 2011–2014 period.
Theme 1: Understand Climate Change
MNRF will gather, manage, and share information
and knowledge about how ecosystem composition,
structure and function – and the people who live
and work in them – will be affected by a changing
climate. Strategies:
• Communicate internally and externally to build
awareness of the known and potential impacts
of climate change and mitigation and adaptation
options available to Ontarians.
• Monitor and assess ecosystem and resource
conditions to manage for climate change in
collaboration with other agencies and organizations.
• Undertake and support research designed to improve understanding of climate change, including improved temperature and precipitation projections, ecosystem vulnerability assessments,
and improved models of the carbon budget and
ecosystem processes in the managed forest, the
settled landscapes of southern Ontario, and the
forests and wetlands of the Far North.
• Transfer science and understanding to decision-makers to enhance comprehensive planning and management in a rapidly changing
climate.
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MNRF will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in
support of Ontario’s greenhouse gas emission
reduction goals. Strategies:
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energy-efficient facility development, promoting
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• Facilitate the development of renewable energy
by collaborating with other Ministries to promote
the value of Ontario’s resources as potential
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available for renewable energy development, and
working with proponents to ensure that renewable
energy developments are consistent with approval
requirements and that other Ministry priorities are
considered.
• Provide leadership and support to resource users
and industries to reduce carbon emissions and
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opportunities for forest carbon management
to increase carbon uptake, and promoting the
increased use of wood products over energy-intensive, non-renewable alternatives.
• Help resource users and partners participate in a
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place based on rules established in Ontario (and
potentially in other jurisdictions), continuing to
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Theme 3: Help Ontarians Adapt
MNRF will provide advice and tools and techniques
to help Ontarians adapt to climate change. Strategies include:
• Maintain and enhance emergency management
capability to protect life and property during extreme events such as flooding, drought, blowdown
and wildfire.
• Use scenarios and vulnerability analyses to develop and employ adaptive solutions to known and
emerging issues.
• Encourage and support industries, resource users
and communities to adapt, by helping to develop understanding and capabilities of partners to
adapt their practices and resource use in a changing climate.
• Evaluate and adjust policies and legislation to
respond to climate change challenges.
Past, present, and future summer
stream temperature in the Lake
Simcoe watershed: brook trout
(Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat at risk
Richard T. Di Rocco, Nicholas E. Jones, and Cindy Chu
Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry
Science and Research Branch, Aquatic Research and Monitoring Section
2016
Science and Research Branch • Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry
© 2016, Queen’s Printer for Ontario
Printed in Ontario, Canada
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Cover image: Brook trout in the Uxbridge Brook, ON.
Photo Credit: Michael Leung
Cite this report as:
Di Rocco R.T., N.E. Jones and C. Chu. 2015. Past, present, and future summer stream temperature in
the Lake Simcoe watershed: brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat at risk. Ontario Ministry of Natural
Resources and Forestry, Science and Research Branch, Peterborough, Ontario. Climate Change Research
Report CCRR-45.
This paper contains recycled materials.
i
Abstract
The thermal characteristics of streams and rivers play an important role in defining the amount of
habitat available for salmonid populations in local geographic regions across Ontario. Species-specific
thermal tolerances are the critical biological elements that define these thermal habitats. Using a
combination of climatic, geological, hydrological, and land cover variables, we predict stream temperatures
throughout the Simcoe watershed with a focus on brook trout that require cold water <19°C. Based on the
thermal model, we predict past, current, and future stream temperatures in the Lake Simcoe watershed.
Presently, most headwater streams in the Lake Simcoe watershed are coldwater habitat, but the model
projects a substantial decrease in the number of coldwater streams over the next 50 years. An observed
versus predicted plot found that the model explained 54% of the variation in water temperature and that the
root mean square error was 1.9°C. The model overpredicted temperatures below 13°C and underpredicted
temperature above 22°C. Using climate scenarios for different time stanzas, coldwater thermal habitat has
decreased by 27% since pre-European development and may decrease another 59% by 2065 under the
A2 Regional Climate Model projection. Coolwater habitat has increased by 284% and will increase 687%
by 2065. Similar to other brook trout occupancy and thermal models, reach contributing area, wooded
land (%), mean slope (%), mean upstream overburden (m), and mean monthly air temperature (°C) were
retained by the model. This spatially-explicit thermal modelling can inform restoration and climate change
adaptation efforts within the Lake Simcoe watershed, particularly the priority areas for the maintenance and
restoration of wooded riparian areas.
Résumé
Températures estivales passées, présentes et futures des cours d’eau du bassin
hydrographique du lac Simcoe : l’habitat de l’omble de fontaine (Salvelinus fontinalis)
est en péril
Les caractéristiques thermales des ruisseaux et des rivières jouent un rôle important pour déterminer
l’ampleur de l’habitat dont disposent les salmonidés dans les régions géographiques locales en Ontario.
Les tolérances thermiques particulières à chaque espèce sont les facteurs biologiques essentiels
pour établir quels sont ces habitats thermiques. À l’aide d’une combinaison de variables climatiques,
géologiques, hydrologiques et concernant la couverture terrestre, nous prédisons la température des
cours d’eau dans l’ensemble du bassin hydrographique du lac Simcoe, en nous focalisant sur l’omble de
fontaine, qui a besoin d’une eau froide à < 19°C. À partir de ce modèle thermique, nous établissons les
températures passées, présentes et futures des cours d’eau du bassin hydrographique du lac Simcoe.
Actuellement, la plupart des cours supérieurs des cours d’eau du bassin hydrographique du lac Simcoe
sont des habitats à eau froide, mais le modèle prévoit une diminution substantielle des cours d’eau à eau
froide au cours des 50 prochaines années. En comparant les prédictions à ce qui a été effectivement
observé, on a établi que le modèle expliquait 54 % des variations des températures de l’eau et que
l’erreur-type était de 1,9°C. Le modèle a surestimé les températures inférieures à 13°C et sous-estimé
les températures supérieures à 22°C. En utilisant des scénarios climatiques pour différentes séquences
temporelles, il a été déterminé que l’habitat thermique à eau froide avait diminué de 27 % depuis avant
l’arrivée des Européens et pourrait encore diminuer de 59 % d’ici 2065, si l’on se fie au modèle de
prévisions climatiques régionales selon le scénario A2. Les habitats à eau tempérée ont augmenté de 284
% et augmenteront de 687 % d’ici 2065. À l’instar d’autres modèles thermiques et d’occupation de l’omble
de fontaine, le modèle utilisé a tenu compte de la zone d’alimentation, des terres boisées (%), de la pente
moyenne (%), de la quantité moyenne de morts-terrains en amont (m) et de la moyenne de la température
mensuelle de l’air (oC). Cette modélisation thermique spatialement explicite peut informer les efforts de
restauration et d’adaptation aux changements climatiques du bassin hydrographique du lac Simcoe,
particulièrement dans les zones boisées riveraines dont l’entretien et la restauration sont prioritaires.
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Acknowledgements
Funding for this project was provided through the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan. The authors thank
Adam Challice, Gabrielle Gilchrist, and Elizabeth Stanley of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and
Forestry and Rob Wilson of the Lake Simcoe Conservation Authority for assistance during the project.
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Contents
Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... i
Résumé.......................................................................................................................................... i
Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................ ii
Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1
Materials and methods................................................................................................................... 1
Data collection.......................................................................................................................... 1
Modelling.................................................................................................................................. 2
Hindcasting and forecasting..................................................................................................... 2
Results........................................................................................................................................... 3
Discussion...................................................................................................................................... 6
References..................................................................................................................................... 8
Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45
Introduction
If all species occupy a Hutchinsonian niche, a hypervolume with dimensions equal to the number of
different conditions and resources an organism requires to survive and reproduce (Hutchinson 1957),
changes to environmental factors will result in range shifts of those species. Water temperature is one of
the most important environmental factors influencing stream fish habitat and assemblage patterns (Brazner
et al. 2005). Stream temperature is positively correlated with air temperature (Pilgrim et al. 1998), and
as such, increasing air temperatures driven by global climate change will have significant impacts on the
thermal habitats of streams and their fish assemblages.
Stream fishes such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdii) that prefer
cold water (<19°C) are particularly at risk from warming water temperatures. In Canada, coldwater species
ranges are expected to decline, with brook trout projected to lose 49% of their national range by 2050 (Chu
et al. 2005). Overly warm water temperatures can reduce growth, lower sperm motility, inhibit ovulation,
and reduce egg viability (Hokanson et al. 1973). In Maryland, extirpations of brook trout have coincided
with substantial increases in water temperature (Stranko et al. 2008), indicating the inability for this species
to adapt to warmer water conditions.
The largest (72 km2) inland lake in southern Ontario, Lake Simcoe is fed by 35 tributaries (Palmer et
al. 2011), some of which contain indigenous brook trout (Holm et al. 2009). In the 1910s, these tributaries
were intentionally stocked with non-native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) (Kerr and Lasenby 2000)
and brown trout (Salmo trutta) (Lasenby and Kerr 2001). Of these three salmonids, brook trout occupy the
coldest niche (Wenger et al. 2011). The combination of warming water temperatures and competition with
non-indigenous salmonids is likely reducing brook trout biomass (Myers et al. 2014).
Brook trout have been identified in the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan fisheries objectives and Lake
Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy
(LSRCA 2016) because of their sensitivity to warming temperatures and land-use change in the watershed.
The fish community objectives specify the need to maintain existing brook trout populations and restore
coldwater tributary habitat. As part of the tributary monitoring program implemented by LSRCA, water
temperature loggers have been deployed throughout the watershed for the past 13 years. In this report, we
use these water temperature data and a combination of climatic, geological, hydrological, and land cover
variables to model current summer temperatures of tributaries throughout the Lake Simcoe watershed.
Identifying tributaries with temperatures within the optimum range for brook trout development (10°C –19°C
(Hokanson et al. 1973)) is the main objective of the project. We use climate models to project changes in
the water temperatures of tributaries in the Lake Simcoe watershed 50 years in the future, which will inform
better conservation decisions. In addition to predicting future stream temperatures, we use historic data to
hindcast stream temperatures in the watershed. We hypothesize that because of the positive relationship
between air and in-stream temperature, increasing air temperatures will result in a loss of coldwater habitat.
In addition, we hypothesize that some coldwater habitat has already been lost as a result of changes to
land cover caused by human development and warming air temperatures.
Materials and methods
Data collection
Hourly water temperature was measured at 312 sites in the Lake Simcoe watershed between 2003
and 2015 by LSRCA using water temperature data loggers (models: HOBO TidbiT v2 and HOBO Pendant).
The loggers were placed as closely to the stream bed as possible without resting on the bottom (LSRCA
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Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45
2013). This hourly data was used to calculate the mean monthly water temperature during each summer
month (June, July, and August). Every site contributed 2 – 35 mean monthly temperatures for a total of 1952
observations in the dataset.
Monthly stream temperature was modelled using six characteristics: riparian land cover, mean monthly
air temperature, reach contributing area, slope, elevation, and overburden. The riparian land cover
characteristic was split into five variables, accounting for percent land cover of the following types: wetland,
wooded, open land, open water, and developed land. These variables were created by categorizing the
27 broad land cover types defined in the Ontario Land Cover Data Base (OMNRF 2016) into the five
categories (Appendix A). The percent values were arcsine transformed. Mean monthly air temperature
and annual precipitation was acquired through historical climate data (Environment and Climate Change
Canada 2015). The weather data was recorded at the Barrie-Oro weather station for 2004–2015. This
station did not have data for 2003, so the Shanty Bay weather station, 11.3 km away, was used instead.
Overburden thickness for each catchment area was obtained from the bedrock topography and overburden
thickness mapping, southern Ontario layer (Gao et al. 2006). Reach contributing area, slope, and elevation
were determined using the Ontario Integrated Hydrology Data (OMNR 2012). The sum of the upstream
base flow index (BFI) was obtained from the work of Neff et al. (2005). The reach contributing area and BFI
values were log transformed.
Modelling
A model was created using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method.
The LASSO is a form of regression analysis that penalizes coefficients such that variable selection occurs
by allowing the coefficients of variables to shrink to a value of zero. This creates an interpretable model
without overfitting the data (Tibshirani 1996). Using the GLMNET package (Friedman et al. 2010) in R (R
Core Team 2015), the regularization path of the LASSO was computed for a grid of values, represented
by the penalty parameter λ. As λ increases, coefficients shrink towards zero. To minimize the estimate of
expected prediction error, the value of λ was chosen adaptively using 10-fold cross-validation (Hastie et al.
2009). One standard error of the λ with the minimum mean cross-validated error was selected to generate
the most regularized model (Hastie and Qian 2014).
Hindcasting and forecasting
The resulting model was used to predict the mean monthly temperature for each reach in the
watershed. Air temperature and land cover were identified as two of the predictors of in-stream
temperature. Hindcasting was used to investigate how stream temperatures in the watershed may have
already changed. A portion of the open land (agriculture) and the developed land variables were added to
the wooded land cover variable to create an approximation of the land cover distribution prior to human
development. Historical air temperatures from 1953–1965 were used in the model. This temperature data
was collected prior to the increase in global temperatures (≈ 0.2°C per decade) that occurred after 1975
(Hansen et al. 2006).
To explore the potential impacts of future climate change on stream temperatures, the air temperatures
were projected for the Barrie weather station for 2053–2065 using the A2 Canadian Regional Climate
Model (Version 4.2.3; Environment and Climate Change Canada 2014). The land cover variables were
unchanged from the present values. The estimated lengths of coldwater streams (<19°C) in the watershed
for all three time periods (1953–1965, 2003–2015, and 2053–2065) were then compared.
Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45
Results
The regularization path of the LASSO was computed for a grid of values, represented by λ (Figure 1).
Using ten-fold cross-validation, λ was set to 0.21. As a result, the percent open water, percent wetland,
percent open land, percent developed land, mean elevation, BFI, and annual precipitation variables were
excluded from the final model (Table 1). An observed versus predicted plot found that the model explained
54% of the variation in water temperature, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was 1.9°C (Figure 2).
The model overpredicted temperatures below 13°C and underpredicted temperature above 22°C (Figure
2). Historically, an estimated 87% of the watershed was cold (<19°C) during July (Table 2) with most of the
cool (19°C –25°C) habitat limited to high order streams (Figure 3). Presently, 64% of streams in the
watershed are cold during July (Table 2). Most of the headwater streams remain cold, but the Ramara
Creeks sub-watershed lost most of the cold water habitat in the area (Figure 3). The projection estimates
only 12% of streams will be cold 50 years in the future (Table 2). These remaining coldwater streams are
headwaters on the Oak Ridges Moraine, in the southern portion of the watershed, and in the Lovers Creek
sub-watershed, south of Barrie.
Figure 1. The regularization path of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. As λ increases, the regression
coefficients shrink towards zero. The upper x-axis indicates the number of variables remaining in the model. The dotted
line is the value of λ selected through cross validation.
Table 1. The regression equation of the final model. Variables with a coefficient value of zero were excluded.
Variable (units)
Coefficient
Intercept
– 2.20
Reach contributing area (m2)
0.849
Wooded land (%)
– 1.56
Mean slope (%)
Mean upstream overburden (m)
Mean monthly air temperature (°C)
– 9.16
– 0.0110
0.437
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Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45
Figure 2. A scatter plot of observed versus predicted mean monthly water temperatures. The solid line indicates the
regression of these points. The dotted line indicates a 1:1 relationship of predicted and observed temperatures.
Table 2. The lengths of cold and cool tributaries in the past (1953–1965), present (2003–2015), and future (2053–2065).
Numbers in parentheses are percentage change.
Temperature
Past
(km)
Present
(km)
Future
(km)
Cold (<19°C)
1773
1294 (73%)
241 (14%)
Cool (19–25°C)
261
740 (284%)
1793 (687%)
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Climate Change Research Report CCRR-44
Figure 3. Maps of the Lake Simcoe watershed with the streams coloured by predicted temperature. The left map is the hindcasted stream temperature based on mean July air
temperature during 1953–1965 and land cover largely forested pre European settlement. The centre map is the predicted stream temperature for 2003–2015. The right map shows
the stream temperatures based on air temperature predicted for 2053–2065. The width of the streams increases with reach contributing area. The land is shaded based on elevation.
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Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45
Discussion
Increasing air temperatures and changes to land cover as a result of agriculture, mining, and
anthropogenic structures have already caused a loss of coldwater habitat in the Lake Simcoe watershed.
Presently, most headwater streams in the Lake Simcoe watershed are coldwater habitat, but the model
projects a substantial decrease in the amount of coldwater streams over the next 50 years. This change
would adversely affect all coldwater species in the region. Brook trout, a highly prized game fish (Scott and
Crossman 1998) and one of only two indigenous salmonids in southern Ontario, faces large reductions
in thermal habitat and competition from non-indigenous species that are better suited to these water
temperatures.
Most variables automatically selected using the LASSO method have been used in other studies
modelling brook trout distribution or water temperature (e.g., Wehrly et al. 2009, Kanno et al. 2015). The
percent wooded land variable was the only land cover variable that remained in the model. Kanno et al.
(2015) found forested land was one of the most important variables for detecting brook trout. Overburden
thickness is a variable not regularly incorporated into these models. The southern edge of the Lake Simcoe
watershed is dominated by the Oak Ridges Moraine. A moraine is a glacial deposit of soil and rock and
is considered overburden. The Oak Ridges Moraine is a significant source of groundwater for southern
Ontario (Howard et al. 1995), so overburden thickness is likely correlated to groundwater discharge in this
watershed. BFI and annual precipitation are sometimes included in water temperatures models, but in this
case, these variables were not helpful in predicting stream temperature.
The model performed poorly at very cold observations, between 10°C –13°C. The inability to predict
these coldest reaches indicates that an important factor is likely missing from the model. It is important to
remember stream temperatures are not homogenous within a reach. Sites of upwelling groundwater can
create patches that are 3°C – 8°C cooler than ambient stream temperature (Ebersole et al. 2001). These
very cold observations may have been from temperature loggers inadvertently placed in these coldwater
patches. Unfortunately, with no groundwater discharge layer, it is impossible to predict these coldwater
patches.
Despite the poor performance at very low temperatures, the model was reasonably accurate at
predicted temperatures above and below 19°C. This is a critical value for brook trout as temperatures
above 19°C are considered suboptimum (Hokanson et al. 1973). When temperatures reach 20°C, nonindigenous brown trout will out-compete brook trout (Taniguchi et al. 1998). Because brook trout move
upstream during the summer as water temperatures increase (Peterson and Fausch 2003), individual
populations of brook trout may become trapped in headwater streams that are too warm. Physical barriers,
such as dams, may exacerbate the issue by only allowing one-way, downstream movement. This could
cause local extinction events similar to those observed by Stranko et al. (2008) in Maryland. Brook trout
have a strong natal homing tendency. O’Connor and Power (1973) found 99.5% of displaced brook trout
returned to their natal stream. These local extinctions could result in a significant loss of indigenous brook
trout biodiversity in the Lake Simcoe watershed. The 50-year scale used in this projection provides time for
the genetic diversity of brook trout in the watershed to be assessed and protected if necessary.
A recognized issue with the projection is that the water temperature increases uniformly in all streams.
In reality, some streams will warm more than others. Mean July air temperature is expected to increase
by 4°C, but mean annual temperature is only expected to increase by 2°C (Environment and Climate
Change Canada 2014). Groundwater temperatures follow mean annual air temperatures (Meisner et al.
1988), so streams with relatively high discharge of groundwater will see less warming than streams with
low groundwater discharge (Chu et al. 2008). Wisconsin incorporated a soil-water-balance model, which
Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45
allowed for the estimation of variability in groundwater recharge, to create a stream temperature model that
explained 76% of the variation in mean daily stream temperature (Stewart et al. 2015). In addition to the
lack of groundwater data, increasing air temperature may have other effects on the watershed that are not
included in this projection. Land cover variables could change as the increased risk of forest fire reduces
stream cover or wetlands dry due to increased rates of evapotranspiration. Reduced meltwater in the
spring could reduce groundwater recharge (Taylor et al. 2013) and alter flow regimes. These effects and
their interactions are complex and not incorporated in the model. As such, the projected increase in water
temperature should be treated as an approximation.
Percentage of wooded riparian area significantly impacted stream water temperatures, and the
maintenance or restoration of riparian cover presents a tangible management and stewardship action to
maintain or rehabilitate coldwater habitats. In conservation, triage is defined as prioritizing limited resources
to maximize conservation returns (Bottril et al. 2008). This model allows for prioritizing of conservation
effort within the Lake Simcoe watershed. Resources that would have been spent on coldwater restoration
or protection in an area that is unlikely to remain cold due to changes in global climate could be used on
alternative projects instead. The usefulness of this model is in the foresight it provides to conservation
decision makers.
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Climate Change Research Report CCRR-45
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Climate Change Report Series
CCRR-01 Wotton, M., K. Logan and R. McAlpine. 2005. Climate
Change and the Future Fire Environment in Ontario: Fire Occurrence and Fire
Management Impacts in Ontario Under a Changing Climate.
CCRR-02 Boivin, J., J.-N. Candau, J. Chen, S. Colombo and M. TerMikaelian. 2005. The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Large-Scale
Forest Carbon Project: A Summary.
CCRR-03 Colombo, S.J., W.C. Parker, N. Luckai, Q. Dang and T. Cai.
2005. The Effects of Forest Management on Carbon Storage in Ontario’s
Forests.
CCRR-04 Hunt, L.M. and J. Moore. 2006. The Potential Impacts of
Climate Change on Recreational Fishing in Northern Ontario.
CCRR-05 Colombo, S.J., D.W. McKenney, K.M. Lawrence and P.A.
Gray. 2007. Climate Change Projections for Ontario: Practical Information for
Policymakers and Planners.
CCRR-06 Lemieux, C.J., D.J. Scott, P.A. Gray and R.G. Davis. 2007.
Climate Change and Ontario’s Provincial Parks: Towards an Adaptation
Strategy.
CCRR-07 Carter, T., W. Gunter, M. Lazorek and R. Craig. 2007.
Geological Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide: A Technology Review and
Analysis of Opportunities in Ontario.
CCRR-08 Browne, S.A. and L.M Hunt. 2007. Climate Change and
Nature-based Tourism, Outdoor Recreation, and Forestry in Ontario: Potential
Effects and Adaptation Strategies.
CCRR-09 Varrin, R. J. Bowman and P.A. Gray. 2007. The Known and
Potential Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Ontario’s Terrestrial
Ecosystems: Case Studies and Recommendations for Adaptation.
CCRR-11 Dove-Thompson, D. C. Lewis, P.A. Gray, C. Chu and W.
Dunlop. 2011. A Summary of the Effects of Climate Change on Ontario’s
Aquatic Ecosystems.
CCRR-12 Colombo, S.J. 2008. Ontario’s Forests and Forestry in a
Changing Climate.
CCRR-13 Candau, J.-N. and R. Fleming. 2008. Forecasting the
Response to Climate Change of the Major Natural Biotic Disturbance Regime
in Ontario’s Forests: The Spruce Budworm.
CCRR-14 Minns, C.K., B.J. Shuter and J.L. McDermid. 2009. Regional
Projections of Climate Change Effects on Ontario Lake Trout (Salvelinus
namaycush) Populations.
CCRR-15 Subedi, N., M. Sharma, and J. Parton. 2009. An Evaluation
of Site Index Models for Young Black Spruce and Jack Pine Plantations in a
Changing Climate.
CCRR-16 McKenney, D.W., J.H. Pedlar, K. Lawrence, P.A. Gray,
S.J. Colombo and W.J. Crins. 2010. Current and Projected Future Climatic
Conditions for Ecoregions and Selected Natural Heritage Areas in Ontario.
Adaptation Options for Ontario’s Clay Belt – A Case Study.
CCRR-25 Bowman, J. and C. Sadowski. 2012. Vulnerability of
Furbearers in the Clay Belt to Climate Change.
CCRR-26 Rempel, R.S. 2012. Effects of Climate Change on Moose
Populations: A Vulnerability Analysis for the Clay Belt Ecodistrict (3E-1) in
Northeastern Ontario.
CCRR-27 Minns, C.K., B.J. Shuter and S. Fung. 2012. Regional
Projections of Climate Change Effects on Ice Cover and Open-Water Duration
for Ontario Lakes
CCRR-28 Lemieux, C.J., P. A. Gray, D.J. Scott, D.W. McKenney and
S. MacFarlane. 2012. Climate Change and the Lake Simcoe Watershed:
A Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Heritage Areas and Nature-Based
Tourism.
CCRR-29 Hunt, L.M. and B. Kolman. 2012. Selected Social Implications
of Climate Change for Ontario’s Ecodistrict 3E-1 (The Clay Belt).
CCRR-30 Chu, C. and F. Fischer. 2012. Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment for Aquatic Ecosystems in the Clay Belt Ecodistrict (3E-1) of
Northeastern Ontario.
CCRR-31 Brinker, S. and C. Jones. 2012. The Vulnerability of
Provincially Rare Species (Species at Risk) to Climate Change in the Lake
Simcoe Watershed, Ontario, Canada
CCRR-32 Parker, W.C., S. J. Colombo and M. Sharma. 2012. An
Assessment of the Vulnerability of Forest Vegetation of Ontario’s Clay Belt
(Ecodistrict 3E-1) to Climate Change.
CCRR-33 Chen, J, S.J. Colombo, and M.T. Ter-Mikaelian. 2013. Carbon
Stocks and Flows From Harvest to Disposal in Harvested Wood Products from
Ontario and Canada.
CCRR-34 McLaughlin, J. and K. Webster. 2013. Effects of a Changing
Climate on Peatlands in Permafrost Zones: A Literature Review and
Application to Ontario’s Far North.
CCRR-35 Lafleur, B., N.J. Fenton and Y. Bergeron. 2013. The Potential
Effects of Climate Change on the Growth and Development of Forested
Peatlands in the Clay Belt (Ecodistrict 3E-1) of Northeastern Ontario.
CCRR-36 Nituch, L. and J. Bowman. 2013. Community-Level Effects of
Climate Change on Ontario’s Terrestrial Biodiversity.
CCRR-37 Douglas, A., C. Lemieux, G. Nielsen, P. Gray, V Anderson
and S. MacRitchie. Responding to the Effects of Climate Change in the Lake
Simcoe Watershed: A Pilot Study to Inform Development of an Adaptation
Strategy on a Watershed Basis
CCRR-38 Furrer, M., M. Gillis, R. Mussakowski, T. Cowie and T. Veer.
Monitoring Programs Sponsored by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources
and their Relevance to Climate Change.
CCRR-17 Hasnain, S.S., C.K. Minns and B.J. Shuter. 2010. Key
Ecological Temperature Metrics for Canadian Freshwater Fishes.
CCRR-39 McKechnie, J., J. Chen, D. Vakalis and H. MacLean. Energy
Use and Greenhouse Gas Inventory Model for Harvested Wood Product
Manufacture in Ontario.
CCRR-18 Scoular, M., R. Suffling, D. Matthews, M. Gluck and P. Elkie.
2010. Comparing Various Approaches for Estimating Fire Frequency: The
Case of Quetico Provincial Park.
CCRR-40 Minns, C.K., Shuter, B.J. and S. R. Fung. 2014. Regional
Projections of Climate Change Effects on Ice Cover and Open-Water Duration
for Ontario Lakes Using Updated Ice Date Models.
CCRR-19 Eskelin, N., W. C. Parker, S.J. Colombo and P. Lu. 2011.
Assessing Assisted Migration as a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for
Ontario’s Forests: Project Overview and Bibliography.
CCRR-41 Minns, C.K., Shuter, B.J. and S. R. Fung. 2014. Regional
Projections of Climate Change Effects on Thermal Habitat Space for Fishes in
Stratified Ontario Lakes.
CCRR-20 Stocks, B.J. and P.C. Ward. 2011. Climate Change, Carbon
Sequestration, and Forest Fire Protection in the Canadian Boreal Zone.
CCRR-42 Jones, N.E., Petreman, I.C. and B.J. Schmidt. 2015. High
Flows and Freshet Timing in Canada: Observed Trends.
CCRR-21 Chu, C. 2011. Potential Effects of Climate Change and
Adaptive Strategies for Lake Simcoe and the Wetlands and Streams within the
Watershed.
CCRR-43 Chu, C. 2015. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for
Inland Aquatic Ecosystems in the Great Lakes Basin, Ontario.
CCRR-22 Walpole, A and J. Bowman. 2011. Wildlife Vulnerability to
Climate Change: An Assessment for the Lake Simcoe Watershed.
CCRR-23 Evers, A.K., A.M. Gordon, P.A. Gray and W.I. Dunlop. 2012.
Implications of a Potential Range Expansion of Invasive Earthworms in
Ontario’s Forested Ecosystems: A Preliminary Vulnerability Analysis.
CCRR-24 Lalonde, R., J. Gleeson, P.A. Gray, A. Douglas, C. Blakemore
and L. Ferguson. 2012. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and
CCRR-44 McDermid, J., S. Fera and A. Hogg. 2015. Climate change
projections for Ontario: An updated synthesis for policymakers and planners.
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