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Specification StatementFuture climates are likely to present major challenges to the UK and especially to people in the developing world What will be the impacts of Climate change? To understand that people everywhere will face climate change in the future To understand some predicted global impacts To gain an insight into possible risks for the UK and Bangladesh What impact may climate change have on this patter? How will this affect us? Possible Global Impacts • http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/629/629/6528979.stm Climate concerns • While the outcomes may vary from country-to-country, the report said some "broad consequences" could be predicted: • agriculture and rural development will bear the brunt of climate risk • extreme poverty and malnutrition will increase as water insecurity increases • more extreme weather patterns will increase the risk of floods and droughts • shrinking glaciers and rising sea levels will reduce access to fresh water • Because industrialised nations have focused their climate change initiatives on reducing the amount of greenhouse gases being pumped into the atmosphere, support for adaptation in developing countries has been "piecemeal and fragmented", the report says. http://www.youtube .com/watch?v=NBA colFLOs8 video of possible impacts and solutions TaskWatch the video and make notes on 1) possible impacts of climate change on a global scale 2) Ways to prevent worst scenarios happening • Large increases in numbers facing water scarcity. • Projected reductions in the areas for growing crops, and in length of the growing season, mean increased risk of hunger. In some areas, yields could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020. • Rising sea levels threaten large cities. Degradation of coral reefs and mangroves is likely, with impacts on local fisheries and tourism. • Rising temperatures, coupled with over-fishing, will decrease the supply of fish from large lakes, with important impacts on food supplies. • Arid or semi-arid areas in northern, western, eastern and parts of southern Africa are becoming drier, while equatorial Africa and other parts of southern Africa are getting wetter, the report says. • The continent is, on average, 0.5C warmer than it was 100 years ago, but temperatures have risen much higher in some areas - such as a part of Kenya which has become 3.5C hotter in the past 20 years, the agencies report. Africa Small low rise Islands • Sea level rise is likely to worsen floods, storm surges and coastal erosion, with impacts on the socio-economic wellbeing of island communities. • Beach erosion and coral bleaching are likely to reduce tourism. • There is strong evidence that water resources in small islands are likely to be seriously compromised. • Increased invasion by nonnative species is likely. Explanation of the effects of global warming in both MEDCs and LEDCs Possible Impacts on the UK • By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C hotter than it is now, Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections. • Summer rainfall could decrease by about 20% in the south of England and in Yorkshire and Humberside by the middle of the century. • An effective global deal at December's UN climate talks in Copenhagen could keep the summer temperature rise in southern England to about 2C, the projections suggest. • But if greenhouse gas emissions rise quickly, that figure could be as high as 12C, • "This research confirms that not only is climate change already having a serious impact in Britain, but that we are also locked into further impacts, and that these impacts will get much worse unless we act now to tackle the problem." The effects of global warming in the UK By 2020 • http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/the uk.shtml weather forecast • Excess summer heat- watch the clip and answer these questions• Why will the problem be worse in cities? • What are they doing on London Underground to try and combat rising temperatures? • What happens to train tracks and tar on roads in hot weather? • http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/the uk.shtml What will happen to Summers in the SE? • What downsides are there to the proposed new reservoir at Abingdon? • http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/the uk.shtml Why are cars a problem? By 2050? • http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/the uk.shtml weather forecast• What changes will there be in Summer? • Winter? White Christmas? • http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/the uk.shtml • What may happen to some of the wildlife in the Scottish Highlands? Ptarmigan? Salmon? Sled dogs? • http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/the uk.shtml • What will happen to farmers and animals in Devon? Olives? Almonds? By 2080? • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml What will happen to winters? Summers? Which areas will be at risk from sea level rises? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml How will buildings change? What is BedZED? What is it like? Why doesn’t it need heating? Why is this good? Where does hot water come from? How does it save water? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml How many cm do people predict sea levels in SE UK will have risen by? What will the impacts of this be? What will the impact be of the Thames barrier being breached? Why is it bad to be building on the Thames Gateway- a flood plain of the river Thames? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml What are the worst case scenarios post 2080? If Greenland Ice sheet is lost how much would sea level rise by? What impacts would this have on the UK? What would the consequences be if the frozen peat bogs storing methane thawed out? What could happen to the Amazon rainforest? Why will we suffer if climate change impacts on other countries? How are we responsible for Iman- a shrimp farmer in Bangladesh? Iman Ali Gain is a 65 year old shrimp farmer in SW Bangladesh He lives in a mud house in the coastal region of Munshiganj, Over the past 3 decades the sea level around his house has risen 3 metres His drinking water is tasting more of salt every day Iman’s sons have left him in order to find work in the big cities in India he now sees them only twice a year He and other locals have repaired the breach in the protective embankment themselves with silt from the river bed Bangladesh has a population of 145 million and is only marginally larger than the UK which has only 65 million people 1/3 of Bangladesh lies in a delta where 3 main rivers meet the sea at the Bay of Bengal. Land lies below sea level there If sea level rises by another metre Iman and up to 40 million others will have to leave their homes as they will be permanently submerged below water Iman used to be a rice farmer in a paddy fields he would feed himself and his family and then sell excess crop for money Iman has had to Since abandoning rice abandon rice farming farming he has been a as his paddy fields shrimp farmer, he became increasingly makes more cash but contaminated with sea has more to spend it water from the rising on as he no longer sea feeds on his own crops 3 months ago a tidal river burst its banks and left him in water up to his chest Bangladesh- a victim of it’s geography? Bangladesh- a victim of it’s geography? • • • • • • • • Bangladesh has three great rivers the Brahmaputra, the Padma and the Meghna around 230 smaller rivers flow into these. As there are so many people living in the country, they have to use every bit of land available for farming, even the riverbanks. These riverbanks are prone to erosion and people frequently plunge into extreme poverty when they lose their land and homes due to erosion. floods are an annual event, and seem to be becoming more frequent. In 2004, a deluge destroyed 80% of the country's crops, killed 747 people and left 30 million homeless or stranded. Temperature increase caused by climate change will mean that more snow will melt in the Himalayas each summer. This water will run into the rivers increasing the chances of flooding and river erosion. If the snow melts fully, it will mean increased flooding. The country could receive 14% more rainfall by 2028, meaning more land will be flooded. Many of those living in coastal areas will have to move inland where the population is already high. So overcrowding will be worse Increased sea levels mean that salt is getting into the soil, making fields near the coast useless for farming. The salt is also killing off mangrove forests that are a vital protection against cyclones, storms and tsunamis. Climate change could also increase the number and intensity of tropical storms in the area. Predictions suggest that climate change could mean that by 2050, 15 million people may be made environmental refugees in Bangladesh. Comprehensive flood control and emergency measures must be taken immediately. Task One Watch the video and make notes on the following1) Why is Bangladesh so vulnerable? 2) What might the effects of climate change be on Bangladesh? 3) What are people doing to try and cope with predicted effects? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpiR-lpYCV0&feature=related 24 minute docu ‘does anyone care if Bangladesh drowns?’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lQxJijXnRg&feature=relate d 1st part of above docu http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NMB4xU2ppE&feature=relat ed 2nd part of above docu What has happened? How will this affect Bangladeshi’s who live their? How will it impact on other places in the world? • Experts say one-third of Bangladesh’s coastline could be flooded if the sea rises 1 meter (3.3 feet) in the next 50 years, washing away the homes and farms of at least 20 million Bangladeshis. That number is about the same as Australia’s population. • “We are taking steps to face the threats of climate change. Bangladesh needs $4 billion to build embankments, cyclone shelters, roads and other infrastructure in the next 15 years to mitigate the threats,” said Mohammad Aminul Islam Bhuiyan, the top bureaucrat in the government’s Economic Relations Division. • And even those farther inland will not be safe from the effects. Saline water will creep deeper inland, fouling water supplies. Crops and livestock will also suffer, experts say. • Scientists tell us that the most profoundly damaging impact of climate change in Bangladesh will take form in floods, salinity intrusion and droughts, all of which will drastically affect crop productivity and food security. • We will also face riverbank erosion, sea water level rise and lack of fresh water in the coastal zones. • The prognosis is more extreme floods in a country already devastated by floods; less food for a country in which half our children already don't have enough to eat; and less clean water for a country where waterborne diseases are already responsible for 24% of all deaths. • The last two decades have witnessed ever more frequent and intense flooding. In 2004, 38% of our country was ravaged by floods, which destroyed more than three quarters of our crops, left 10 million people homeless, and in their wake diseases such as dysentery and diarrhoea. It is the equivalent of the Thames flooding Westminster, the South Bank and the City of London repeatedly, washing away businesses and homes, leaving families desperate and desolate and some people dead. • Were the Earth to warm by just one degree Celsius, 11% of Bangladesh would be submerged, putting the lives of 55 million people in danger. http://vimeo.com/groups/10716/videos/5027546 Geetu a fisherman- his story How has Climate change affected Geetu? Who helped him? Where do you think he would be if he did not receive the help? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h 3wAS5qgncA • • • • What impacts is climate change having in the area? What impacts does salinisation have on the crops?# Why is shrimp farming getting harder? What are the several problems climate change is imposing on Bangladesh? • Why will many people be displaced by end of century? • Why are Bangladeshi people not responsible for the situation? Case study summary: Bangladesh Answer these summary questions in as much detail as possible? • Why is Bangladesh so vulnerable to the impacts of climate change? • Describe all possible impacts on Bangladesh from Climate change- sea levels, impacts on people, the environment, the country itself • How can we in the west aid Bangladesh? • Why have developed countries not been very good at helping countries such as Bangladesh? Exam question Explain how increasing greenhouse gas emissions threaten people living in coastal areas (6)