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Framing Your Group’s Assessment Process Outline for the Aleutian and Bering Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ABCVA) Expectations: Each expert group, in collaboration with the ABCVA project team, will develop a brief chapter summarizing vulnerabilities. We seek your expert opinions and your informed speculation in describing specific resource vulnerabilities This includes building out the brainstorm initiated by your expert group during the AMSS workshop, to develop a deeper analysis (quantitative or qualitative) based on further within-group discussion, use of climate data tools or other information, and discussion among groups. Support and Process: Your ABCVA liaisons (Aaron, Ellen, Jeremy and Tom) will support your group’s efforts through facilitation (e.g., hosting conference calls or work sessions, helping access climate data/expertise and other information) and general project management including information exchange across groups to foster an integrated science approach. The ABCVA project team will also be responsible for weaving chapters from the five focal groups into a cohesive draft report, which will then be provided back to you for final comments. The ABCVA team will also use the draft report in dialogue with communities and stakeholders to include their feedback, input, and perspectives as part of the final report. The final report will be shared with the leadership of the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands LCC, Alaska Climate Science Center, and Alaska Ocean Observing System, and will of course be available for your own outreach, proposal writing, or other interests. Resources: Peers in your expert group and in the other focal expert groups Downscale climate projection data and derived variables: o http://tinyurl.com/Bond-climate-variables [Bering Sea Project, UW] o http://tinyurl.com/Walsh-climate-variables [SNAP, UAF] o http://spark.rstudio.com/uafsnap/temp_wind_events [SNAP, UAF] o http://spark.rstudio.com/uafsnap/sea_ice_coverage/ [SNAP, UAF] Expertise from Nick Bond, John Walsh, and Jeremy Littell on how to best use these data Support from your focal group liaisons(primary, secondary): o Seabirds – Tom Van Pelt, Aaron o Marine mammals – Aaron Poe, Tom o Fishes, shellfish, commercial fisheries – Ellen Tyler, Tom o Terrestrial vegetation – Jeremy Littell, Ellen o Human community sustainability, subsistence and cultural sites – Aaron, Ellen The following chapter outline to help guide your group’s thinking and writing An Outline for your Vulnerability Assessment Chapter During the Monday “expert workshop” at AMSS, and during our expert “huddle” immediately following the stakeholder workshop on the Friday of AMSS week, we heard requests from many of you for help in structuring your assessment. In response, we drafted this outline, intended to build upon the ‘three guiding questions’ posed to your group at AMSS. We recognize that it may not be a perfect fit for all groups and should not be seen as a strict template to constrain your thinking. Instead, this outline attempts to step your group through the suggested five sections of your assessment chapter, aiming to inspire thinking with a series of possible questions to consider under each section. The order of sections intends to: 1) share your group’s rationale for identifying resources and services of importance; 2) evaluate their sensitivity to climate change; 3) assess their likely exposure to those changes; 4) discuss potential adaptive capacity; and 5) conclude with your recommendations relative to vulnerability. 1) Identifying Important Resources and Services at Risk to Climate Change These questions aim to guide your identification of which species, habitats, and ecosystem services (e.g., trophic function) within your focal group that are the ‘most important’ in the ABSI region and that are likely at greatest risk to climate change in the relatively near term say between now and 2100. a) Are there species/habitats or ecosystem linkages where sensitivity to climate change has been documented or is likely due to very specific habitat, food or phenological needs? b) Do we know enough about a particular species, resource, or habitat and its sensitivity to climate change to make it a viable candidate for this assessment? For example, if we have no knowledge of how sperm whales will respond to climate variables for this assessment it might have to be a lower priority for this initial assessment. c) Are there existing special management zones or protected areas that have been established (e.g., Important Bird Areas defined by Audubon, or Essential Fish Habitat designations) that might be especially vulnerable? d) Are there species/habitats/human communities/cultural resources of already documented to be at high risk from other threats (e.g., endangered species, or communities where a large economic upheaval has taken place in recent years) that may experience compounding effects from climate change? e) Are there key species/habitats that communities or industry depend upon (e.g., ice seals or pollock) and that are at likely risk to climate change? f) Are there key species/habitats that have been documented as vital to the trophic function of the ecosystem that are of likely at risk to climate change (e.g., forage fish species)? 2) Evaluating Sensitivity to Climate Change The intent of this section is to help guide your group as you begin to think through how changes in climate (direct or indirect) are likely to negatively impact the resources and services you’ve identified above. It will likely also result in the identification of the climate, or climate-derived, information (e.g., sea ice extent or densities of krill) most needed by your group to evaluate exposure or risk faced by your resources in Section 3. a) Are there clear species-specific physiological thresholds that are a concern due to changes in temperature, salinity, etc.? This could be especially important for species or human communities with a high degree of specialization. b) Is there a known dependence on key habitats (e.g., sea ice of a certain thickness and season, or focused breeding or wintering locations) or sites like particular low-lying coastal areas that may be of special risk? c) Are there ways that climate change might affect important aspects of phenology like the timing of breeding or migration or the timing of species harvest? d) Are there expected changes in species distributions that might make them less available to humans for harvest—or range shifts that would bring in new competitor or predator species that may impact resources or communities? e) Are there ecological linkages likely to be disrupted such as the timing of primary production of algae or spatial shifts in the availability of key forage fishes? f) Are there species with slow population growth rates or reproductive strategies that likely result in them being at greater risk to changing climates? 3) Evaluating Exposure to Climate Change: The intent of this section is to help guide your analysis of climate projection information and describe the most important risks faced by your species or services over the next 40 - 100 years. Consider how your group might use the data available (e.g., the outputs of the Walsh & Bond downscaling efforts) and other information to assess the vulnerability of specific resources or service areas of interest. a) How will the resources or services you have selected to assess likely to respond to projected changes in climate or climate driven processes? Remember to consider the most basic of climate variables: temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, cloud cover, and solar radiation, as well as derived variables like: loss of sea ice, increased fall storminess, increases in winter temperatures (as means or perhaps extreme events) etc. b) Can you further focus your assessment on key geographic locales where exposure to effects of climate change is likely of greater concern? Or areas where by contrast there are relatively low risks due to climate changes? For example, the Fisheries group identified the Eastern Bering Sea shelf vs. the Aleutian Islands. It may also be possible to identify even more precise geographic zones like St. Lawrence or the Pribilofs, etc. c) Is there a way to focus your assessment on key seasons or timeframes when resources or services are most vulnerable? d) Are there other landscape-scale conservation threats or stressors that may compound the risk of climate change impacts on these resources or services? This could take the form of loss of sea ice allowing greater marine shipping traffic or increased ocean acidification on the eastern Bering Sea shelf reducing productivity of ocean waters. 4) Evaluating Adaptive Capacity In this section we are asking your group to reflect on the sensitivities and exposure to climate changes that you have identified in previous sections, and evaluate capacities for adaptation. a) Is there reason to expect that any species you have identified have the ability to adapt either by flexibility in habitat use or behavior or near term (say in <100 years)? For example, thinking of trophic function, is there evidence that species can shift to other prey resources if current trophic linkages are disconnected? b) In the context of human communities, are there some that seem more likely to be able to make rapid enough shifts in practices for harvest of subsistence or commercial species? c) Are there actions that could be taken by managers, industry, communities or other stakeholders to help address or mitigate effects from climate change on your resource or service? For example, if cultural sites are at risk from degradation by increased coastal erosion could they at the very least be prioritized for documentation to preserve them in the historic record? d) Are there other actions managers, industry, and communities might take to mitigate compounding or interacting climate stressors that would help reduce overall exposure or risk of resources? For example, changing a harvest regulation for the commercial fisheries industry or removing invasive species that might help reduce climate-driven compounding effects. 5) Chapter recommendations This concluding section provides an opportunity to identify clear gaps in information that if filled could improve manager’s and stakeholder’s ability to address climate vulnerabilities in the ABSI region. In some cases this may even be specific studies or collaborations, and/or changes in current management practices. a) What are some additional key data or information, beyond what was available to your group in this assessment, that are vital for identifying and understanding specific climate effects/impacts? b) Are there specific studies, inquiries, syntheses or collaborations that should be launched or supported that would greatly improve the ability to assess climate vulnerabilities for your resource or service? c) Are there any no regrets strategies that are feasible for managers, industry, communities or stakeholders to take at this point to address the vulnerabilities your group has identified? For example, assuming cultural sites are threatened by coastal erosion is it a reasonable mitigation effort for managers/stakeholders to prioritize the comprehensive inventory and documentation of the historical significance of those sites.