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C DMC
Climate Change:
Always the
Bridesmaid?
Hadi Dowlatabadi
Canada Research Chair, UBC
Climate Decision-Making Center, CMU
University Fellow, RFF
December 7 2006
[email protected]
C DMC
Outline
• Is climate change the primary concern of
anyone but the climate impacts community?
• Do we have decision-aiding approaches that
are climate change capable?
NO! But all we want is better decisions.
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07.12.2006
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Views of Climate
• Context
• Determinant
• Hazard
• Resource
CONTROL+ALT+DELETE
Source: Riebsame, 1985
3
07.12.2006
Source: www.impawards.com/.../ wag_the_dog_ver3.jpg
http://samiam.com/uploaded_images/an-inconvenient-truth-702835.jpg
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Australian Agri-drought
• 1997 we completed a project on adaptation in
Australian agriculture.
• We expected ENSO effects to have made the
sector particularly aware of adaptation issues.
• We expected adaptation to climate change to be a
primary driver of their choices…
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07.12.2006
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Rainfall & Wheat yield:
1950-1990
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1950
6
07.12.2006
1955
1960
1965
Normalized Precipitation
1970
Yield t/Ha
1975
1980
1985
1990
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Rainfall, Yield, and profits:
1950-1990
2.5
2
1.5
1
Coefficient of variation
higher in profit than yield
0.5
0
1950
7
07.12.2006
1955
1960
1965
Normalized Precipitation
1970
1975
Yield t/Ha
1980
Farming Return
1985
1990
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Multi-stress
• Weather
• Internal markets
• External markets
• C+N cycle disturbances
• Pests
• Soil & water degradation
• Financial & currency markets
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07.12.2006
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Multi-Responses
• Storage
• Insurance
• Engineering
• Management
• Land use
• R&D
• Incentives
• Disaster Aid
• …
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07.12.2006
Characterizing Interactions
Stresses Weather
Internal
Markets
Export
Markets
Responses
C &N
Cycles
disturbance
Pests
Soil &
Water
Degradation
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Response
time/
frequency
Storage
Low
Low
Low
-
Low
-
< 2 years
Insurance
Low
Low
Low
-
Low
-
1 year
Engineering
Low
-
-
-
-
High
< 10 years
Management
High
Low
Low
High
High
High
> 1 year
Land-use
allocation
High
-
-
Low
Low
Low
> 25 years
R&D
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
5 to 25
years
Incentives
Low
High
High
-
-
High
1 per 5
years
Disaster Aid
Low
-
-
-
-
-
1 per 10
years
Impact
0.3
1
1
0.2
0.5
1
Frequency
1
10
-
20
1
> 100
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Source: D. Greatz, H. Dowlatabadi, M. Kandlikar, and J. Risbey (1998)
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Sea Level Rise
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07.12.2006
July 25 1995
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homes are arrayed to enjoy the
view ...
Housing model
information
from tax rolls
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07.12.2006
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Storm Surges + Sea Level Rise
Storm model
information from
tide gauges
Storm re ach wrt…
20 0
15 0
10 0
50
0
20 00
20 20
20 40
20 60
20 80
21 00
20 60
20 80
21 00
Time
Key
SLR
No SLR
SLR
Storm re ach wrt…
20 0
15 0
10 0
50
0
20 00
20 20
20 40
Time
Key
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07.12.2006
SLR
No SLR
SLR
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Impacts from SLR
• We only simulate 50 years -- before there is inundation.
• But during this time there will be many storms.
• Subsequent to each storm homeowners decide about repairs,
relocation, etc.
• Household level decision-making is simulated using patterns
of insurance claims in combination with: assumptions about
homeowner risk aversion, developer motivations, and a simple
model of the real estate market.
• We run many simulation runs in order to get representative
distributions of storm events over 50 years.
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07.12.2006
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Cumulative Probability
damage due to
SLR and STORMS
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.0
Inundation
damage
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07.12.2006
2.0
4.0
6.0
$ 106 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs)
8.0
Cumulative Probability
damage With & Without
Rebuilding Regulations
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1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
$ 106 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs)
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07.12.2006
Source: West, J. J., H. Dowlatabadi, et al. (2001). "Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise." Climatic Change 48: 317-42.
Source: www.geo.arizona.edu/.../ slr_usafl_3meter_lg.htm
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Why Arctic Communities?
• Expected to experience the greatest climate
change,
– measured in terms of absolute temperature change and
moisture transport.
• Have similar current challenges to most developing
countries,
– with the exception of affiliation with source of funding.
• Access!
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07.12.2006
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Demography & Economy
•
26,000 people
– 85% Inuit
– 56% under 25 yr
•
350,000 km2 of land
– 23 communities
•
Territorial budget of 960M
– 80% transferred from Federal
Government
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07.12.2006
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This talk
•
Context
– Health
– Education
– Culture
– Economy
•
Climate Change
– Temperature
– Sea ice
– Sea level
•
Opportunities
– Awareness
– Capacity to respond
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07.12.2006
– …
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Health
• The Inuit & First Nations suffer more than twice
the national average in:
– Infant mortality,
– Lung cancer,
– Respiratory illnesses,
– Unintentional injury,
– Disability,
– Suicide.
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07.12.2006
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Education
University Degree
Canada
Nunavut
University
Trade
HS Certificate
High School
Less than Grade 9
0%
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07.12.2006
10%
20%
30%
40%
Source: Statistics Canada
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Ethnicity
Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment
Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Programme
(AMAP.
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07.12.2006
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Oil & Gas
Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment
Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Programme
(AMAP.
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07.12.2006
The Arctic
Front
Based on: mean air mass position: Li, S.M.,
R.W. Talbot, L.A. Barrie, R.C. Harriss, C.I.
Davidson and J.-L. Jaffrezo, 1993. Seasonal
and geographical variations of methane
sulphanic acid in the Arctic troposphere.
Atmos. Environ. 27A: 3011-3024.
27
07.12.2006
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NOx
Emissions
Based on: Benkovitz, C.M., T.M. Schultz,
J.M. Pacyna, L. Tarrason, J. Dignon, E.C.
Voldner, P.A. Spiro, A.L. Jernnifer and T.E.
Graedel, 1995. Gridded inventories of
anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and
nitrogen. J. geophys. Res. 101: 29239.
28
07.12.2006
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Lead
Emissions
Based on: Pacyna, J.M., B.D. Shin and P.
Pacyna, 1993b. Global emissions of lead.
Atmospheric Environment Service,
Environment Canada, Ottawa.
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07.12.2006
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Ocean
Currents
Based on: Macdonald, R.W. and J.M.
Bewers, 1996. Contaminants in the arctic
marine environment: priorities for
protection. ICES J. mar. Sci. 53: 537-563.
30
07.12.2006
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DIET POPs
Based on: Hobson, K.A. and H.E. Welch,
1992. Determination of trophic relationships
within a high Arctic marine food web using
delta-13C and delta-15N analysis. Mar. Ecol.
Prog. Ser. 84: 9-18. Hargrave, B.T., 1994.
Sources and sinks of organochlorines in the
Arctic marine food web. In: J.L. Murray and
R.G. Shearer (eds). Synopsis of research
conducted under the 1993/94 Northern
Contaminants Program, pp. 178-184. Indian
and Northern Affairs Canada, Ottawa,
Environmental Studies 72, 459p.
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07.12.2006
137Cs
(Bq/m2)
Estimated
from bomb
fallout and
precipitation
32
07.12.2006
Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment
Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Programme
(AMAP.
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Average
Cs137 in diet
(for 100Bq/m2
dispersion)
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07.12.2006
Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment
Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Programme
(AMAP.
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Drivers of Development
government
services
scientific research
military
oil and gas
large-scale mining
small-scale mining
religion/schools
bio-resource trade
subsistence
1850
WWII
1900
1950
2000
Source: www.keepwintercool.org/ earthimage.html
Partner communities
One of the routes for the NW Passage
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CLIMATESUMMARY/2003/IMAGES/annual.1954-2003.tchange.png
From: http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/graphic0/seismol/canisos.gif
Coping with Sea Level Change in 4000 yrs
Source: Susan D.M. Rowley
PreDorset
Dorset Historic Contemporary
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http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg
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Regional Patterns Differ
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07.12.2006
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
www.sfu.ca/.../ physical%20ocean.html
Source: www.geophysics.dias.ie/. ../slave_lakes.html
Models of community adaptation:
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Climate vulnerability sets priorities
Sensitivity to
climate
change
Communit
y priorities
Response
46
07.12.2006
Models of community adaptation:
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All vulnerabilities set priorities
Sensitivity to
climate
change
Sensitivity to
multiple stresses
47
07.12.2006
Communit
y priorities
Response
Models of community adaptation:
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Local control is limited
Sensitivity to
climate
change
Sensitivity to
multiple stresses
48
07.12.2006
Communit
y priorities
Community
control
Response
Models of community adaptation:
A fuller picture
Sensitivity
to climate
change
Sensitivity to
multiple stresses
Successful Responses
50
07.12.2006
C DMC
Communit
y priorities
Community
control
Adaptive Capacity
External resources
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Hypotheses
• H0: Communities identify risks from climate
change as a special priority.
• H1a: Communities enjoy control commensurate with
their priorities.
• H1b: Communities enjoy control over matters
involving climate change adaptation.
• H2: CEDO priorities and resources match needs
for broader community development planning.
51
07.12.2006
C DMC
Nunavut Economic Development Strategy (NEDS)
2003
THE LAND
-
Respecting the land
-
Maintaining our mixed economy
-
Building on the knowledge of our Elders
OUR PEOPLE
-
Economic development for youth
-
Education and training
-
Basic needs: housing, hospitals and schools
OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES
-
Community capacity building and organizational development
-
Small and Inuit business development
-
Building the knowledge base
OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY
-
Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work
-
Sector development and support systems
-
Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband
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07.12.2006
Accessing the global marketplace
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Method
•
NEDS 2003
– 143 Action Items (excluding
24 implementation items)
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07.12.2006
•
NEDA priority identification
•
Our informed judgments about
broader community priorities,
sensitivity and levels of control
Caveats:
•
Action items as units of
observation.
•
NEDS as reflection of
priorities
– broad guiding principles
– 4 forms of capital: E,H,S,P
High Community Priorities
THE LAND
-
Respecting the land
o
Maintaining our mixed economy
-
Building on the knowledge of our Elders
OUR PEOPLE
o
Economic development for youth
o
Education and training
o
Basic needs: housing, hospitals and schools
OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES
o
Community capacity building and organizational development
-
Small and Inuit business development
-
Building the knowledge base
OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY
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07.12.2006
-
Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work
-
Sector development and support systems
-
Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband
-
Accessing the global marketplace
C DMC
Characterizing
Community Priorities
70
60
Actions
50
40
30
20
10
None
Low
Medium
0
Community Priorities
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07.12.2006
High
C DMC
Climate Sensitivity &
Community Priority
48
Not a priority
Low priority
Medium priority
Low
Medium
High priority
Action Items
40
32
24
16
8
0
None
Climate Sensivity
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07.12.2006
High
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Community Priorities
Sensitivity to
climate 9%
change
91%
Sensitivity to
multiple stresses
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07.12.2006
High
Communit
y priorities
Community
control
C DMC
Characterizing Community
Control
Number of Action Items
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
None
Low
Medium
0
Community Control
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07.12.2006
High
C DMC
Community Control &
Community Priority
Number of Action Items
48
No Control
Low Control
Medium Control
High Control
40
32
24
16
8
0
None
Low
Medium
Community Priorities
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07.12.2006
High
C DMC
Community Control &
Climate Sensitivity
Number of Action Items
48
No Control
Low Control
Medium Control
High Control
40
32
24
16
8
0
None
Low
Medium
Climate Sensitivity
60
07.12.2006
High
C DMC
Characterizing Community
Priorities
Number of Action Items
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
None
Low
Medium
0
Community Priorities
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07.12.2006
High
C DMC
C DMC
Characterizing Community &
CEDO Priorities
Number of Action Items
100
None
Low
Medium
High
80
60
40
20
0
Community
CEDO
Priorities
62
07.12.2006
“Make the implementation of the community development plan the
primary task of the community economic developer.”
C DMC
Institutional Challenge
XH : Communities identify risks from climate
0
change as a special priority.
XH
1a:
XH
1b:
Communities enjoy control commensurate
with their priorities.
Communities enjoy control over matters
involving climate change adaptation.
XH : CEDO priorities and resources match
2
63
07.12.2006
needs for broader community development
planning
C DMC
Climate change Is not a separable
focus of effort
Pollution &
Contaminants
Climate
Changes
Investment &
Funding
COMMUNITY
Population
Growth
Policies
Technology
Values
64
07.12.2006
Resource
Development
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Adaptation within existing priorities
• Basic needs of the community are not being met. Their
priorities are: employment, housing, health and education.
• Response to climate change can aggravate or help to resolve
these primary concerns.
• Adaptation adds to the uncertainty of strategies to achieve
planning goals.
65
07.12.2006
C DMC
Conventional strategic planning
is not a shared concept
• Conventional strategic planning relies on a shared
understanding of:
– Long-term;
– Risk;
– Uncertainty;
– Options & opportunities.
66
07.12.2006
Clues to a different
perspective on planning
C DMC
• Cultural history
– Comfort with short-term adaptation and uncertainty
– Knowledge based on observations and experience
– Ways of gathering information and using it in decision-making
(e.g. Parlee et al.)
• Perceptions of risks (e.g. Furgal et al.)
• Trade-offs: valuation, acceptability, frame of experience
• Values: recalibration given choices (Tribe), evolving culture
67
07.12.2006
C DMC
Planning within the context of
Inuit values
• Basic differences in values and perceptions need to be
characterized and incorporated into decision aids.
• Tools for use in Nunavut need to reflect the key differences
critical to strategic planning and adaptive management …
68
07.12.2006
Collective decision-making
Human Agency
Limited detection
Imperfect knowledge
Values that change with
contexts/time.
Blunt mechanisms for realizing
goals
...we perceive changes
in our environment,
... attribute their origin &
project their future trends,
...evaluate various options,
...implement a
chosen strategy,
Evaluation &
Feedback
C DMC
Summary
• Few decisions hinge on climate alone AND what we
do is rarely optimal.
• But climate sets the context and concern about
change AND allows us to ask: what are we doing
and why? Creating an opening for doing better.
70
07.12.2006
C DMC
Acknowledgements
Thanks to:
• Lara Whitley-Binder & the Climate Impacts Group for
inviting me here.
• Michelle Boyle, Dean Graetz, Milind Kandlikar, Mitch Small,
James Risbey & Jason West who are co-authors on much of
what has been presented here.
• US National Science Foundation, Canada Research Chairs,
Canadian Foundation for Innovation, Natural Resources
Canada, Environment Canada, Resources for the Future,
Electric Power Research Institute, Exxon-Mobil Education
Foundation and Social and Humanities Research Council for
financial support.
71
07.12.2006
C DMC
Reported cases of Dengue 1980-96
72
07.12.2006
Source: US National Assessment
Effects from each of these changes occur in…
C DMC
multiple dimensions
Physical
Economic
73
07.12.2006
Biotic
Societal
… and at multiple scales
global
circumpolar
regional
community
74
07.12.2006
C DMC
EXT ERNAL
POLL UTION
CLIMATE
CHANGE
C DMC
+
+
+
Permafrost thaw
+
+
Internal pollution
+
Hydrological pattern
changes
Swamps,
slumping,
erosion
Harvest
species
PHYSIC AL
-
ECO NOMIC
+
Infrastructure
-
Imported
food
+
Access
BIOTIC
SOCIETAL
+
# and size of
communities
Employment /
Income
Resource
exploitation
EXT ERNAL
INVES TMENT
75
07.12.2006
+
+
Educa tion
+
+
Traditional
culture loss
COMMU NITY
+
RES OURCE
COMPANIES
Human
health
Traditional
diet
+
+
Ecosystem
and species
composition
Local land
and water
poll ution
+
+
Bioaccumulation
+
Sea/river
ice melt
+
Northward shif t of
biomes and treeli ne
+
REG IONAL
PEOP LE
+
CIRCUM POLAR
TECHNOLOGY
© M. Boyle 2003
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Partysympatory Methods
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07.12.2006
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The Stones Have it
• We need to understand climate change
• Imbedded in a broader context of change
• Evaluated by people whose values and means
change
• …
77
07.12.2006
Source:http://www.mick-jagger.com/oldstones.jpg
A Stochastic Environment
Where Attribution is Difficult
Climate is a stochastic process:
– the climate of any location involves
variability in realized weather;
– extreme weather events occur rarely;
– the most visible/memorable impacts
are due to these extremes;
– rarity of extreme events makes
detection of trends difficult;
– often various impacts are
inappropriately attributed to weather
extremes.
 e.g., A stiff breeze in autumn leads to
a shower of dead leaves. But we all
recognize that the breeze did not kill
the leaves.
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07.12.2006
C DMC
Economics is stochastic process:
–
the economy of any location involves
variability in realized growth;
–
extreme economic events occur rarely;
–
the most visible/memorable
impacts are due to these
extremes;
–
rarity of extreme events makes
detection of trends difficult;
–
often various impacts are
inappropriately attributed to economic
extremes.
 e.g., A rise in oil prices leads to a flood
of auto-worker layoffs. Yet the public
attributes this to high oil prices.
New concepts or
Misconceptions?
• Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in
reducing adverse health effects.
• A demonstrably good strategy will win approval.
• Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors.
• Expressions of uncertainty aid decision-making.
• AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given.
• …
79
07.12.2006
C DMC
C DMC
Integrated Assessment
•
From source to transformation to impacts…
X
•
Interventions of all kinds at all points possible…
X
•
Characterization of variations across populations…
X
•
80
07.12.2006
Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables…
Population
Adaptation
C DMC
The problem & its possible
solutions
Impacts
Family planning
Engineering the earth
Atmospheric
& climate
change
Economic
Activity
81
07.12.2006
Fossil energy
&
Land cover
Going green
Curbing greed
C DMC
Integrated Assessment
•
From source to transformation to impacts…
X
•
Interventions ONLY
of all kinds
at all
points possible…
ADD
DETAIL
WHERE
X
•
VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH
Characterization of variations across populations…
X
•
82
07.12.2006
Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables…
C DMC
Integrated Assessment
•
From source to transformation to impacts…
X
•
Interventions ONLY
of all kinds
at all
points possible…
ADD
DETAIL
WHERE
X
•
VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH
Characterization of variations across populations…
X
•
VALUE OF
IS ONLY
HIGH
Characterization
of INFORMATION
uncertainties, unknowns
and unknowables…
WHERE IT CAN AFFECT POLICY CHOICE
83
07.12.2006
C DMC
My Misconceptions
• A demonstrably good strategy will win approval.
¬ NYC and HIV-AIDS
• Expressions of uncertainty & VOI aid decision-making.
¬ NAPAP, Climate Change,…
• Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors.
¬ Adaptive regulations.
• AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given.
¬ UK Climate policy
• Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing
adverse health effects.
84
07.12.2006
¬ Partnership with Translink
Strategy Within What
Context?
• Social norms and acceptance:
– Individual or collective responsibility?
– Fatalism or social contract?
• History:
– What regulation/contracts already in place?
– What relationships reign among stakeholders?
…
• And other challenges being faced …
85
07.12.2006
C DMC
C DMC
Next Gen IA
•
From source to transformation to impacts…
X
•
Interventions of all kinds at all points possible…
X
•
Characterization of variations across populations…
X
•
Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables…
X
•
Characterization of other challenges and options
X
•
86
07.12.2006
Social and behavioural norms