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C DMC Climate Change: Always the Bridesmaid? Hadi Dowlatabadi Canada Research Chair, UBC Climate Decision-Making Center, CMU University Fellow, RFF December 7 2006 [email protected] C DMC Outline • Is climate change the primary concern of anyone but the climate impacts community? • Do we have decision-aiding approaches that are climate change capable? NO! But all we want is better decisions. 2 07.12.2006 C DMC Views of Climate • Context • Determinant • Hazard • Resource CONTROL+ALT+DELETE Source: Riebsame, 1985 3 07.12.2006 Source: www.impawards.com/.../ wag_the_dog_ver3.jpg http://samiam.com/uploaded_images/an-inconvenient-truth-702835.jpg C DMC Australian Agri-drought • 1997 we completed a project on adaptation in Australian agriculture. • We expected ENSO effects to have made the sector particularly aware of adaptation issues. • We expected adaptation to climate change to be a primary driver of their choices… 5 07.12.2006 C DMC Rainfall & Wheat yield: 1950-1990 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1950 6 07.12.2006 1955 1960 1965 Normalized Precipitation 1970 Yield t/Ha 1975 1980 1985 1990 C DMC Rainfall, Yield, and profits: 1950-1990 2.5 2 1.5 1 Coefficient of variation higher in profit than yield 0.5 0 1950 7 07.12.2006 1955 1960 1965 Normalized Precipitation 1970 1975 Yield t/Ha 1980 Farming Return 1985 1990 C DMC Multi-stress • Weather • Internal markets • External markets • C+N cycle disturbances • Pests • Soil & water degradation • Financial & currency markets 8 07.12.2006 C DMC Multi-Responses • Storage • Insurance • Engineering • Management • Land use • R&D • Incentives • Disaster Aid • … 9 07.12.2006 Characterizing Interactions Stresses Weather Internal Markets Export Markets Responses C &N Cycles disturbance Pests Soil & Water Degradation C DMC Response time/ frequency Storage Low Low Low - Low - < 2 years Insurance Low Low Low - Low - 1 year Engineering Low - - - - High < 10 years Management High Low Low High High High > 1 year Land-use allocation High - - Low Low Low > 25 years R&D Low Low Low Low Low Low 5 to 25 years Incentives Low High High - - High 1 per 5 years Disaster Aid Low - - - - - 1 per 10 years Impact 0.3 1 1 0.2 0.5 1 Frequency 1 10 - 20 1 > 100 10 07.12.2006 Source: D. Greatz, H. Dowlatabadi, M. Kandlikar, and J. Risbey (1998) C DMC Sea Level Rise 11 07.12.2006 July 25 1995 C DMC homes are arrayed to enjoy the view ... Housing model information from tax rolls 13 07.12.2006 C DMC Storm Surges + Sea Level Rise Storm model information from tide gauges Storm re ach wrt… 20 0 15 0 10 0 50 0 20 00 20 20 20 40 20 60 20 80 21 00 20 60 20 80 21 00 Time Key SLR No SLR SLR Storm re ach wrt… 20 0 15 0 10 0 50 0 20 00 20 20 20 40 Time Key 14 07.12.2006 SLR No SLR SLR C DMC Impacts from SLR • We only simulate 50 years -- before there is inundation. • But during this time there will be many storms. • Subsequent to each storm homeowners decide about repairs, relocation, etc. • Household level decision-making is simulated using patterns of insurance claims in combination with: assumptions about homeowner risk aversion, developer motivations, and a simple model of the real estate market. • We run many simulation runs in order to get representative distributions of storm events over 50 years. 15 07.12.2006 C DMC Cumulative Probability damage due to SLR and STORMS 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.0 Inundation damage 16 07.12.2006 2.0 4.0 6.0 $ 106 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs) 8.0 Cumulative Probability damage With & Without Rebuilding Regulations C DMC 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 $ 106 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs) 17 07.12.2006 Source: West, J. J., H. Dowlatabadi, et al. (2001). "Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise." Climatic Change 48: 317-42. Source: www.geo.arizona.edu/.../ slr_usafl_3meter_lg.htm C DMC Why Arctic Communities? • Expected to experience the greatest climate change, – measured in terms of absolute temperature change and moisture transport. • Have similar current challenges to most developing countries, – with the exception of affiliation with source of funding. • Access! 20 07.12.2006 C DMC Demography & Economy • 26,000 people – 85% Inuit – 56% under 25 yr • 350,000 km2 of land – 23 communities • Territorial budget of 960M – 80% transferred from Federal Government 21 07.12.2006 C DMC This talk • Context – Health – Education – Culture – Economy • Climate Change – Temperature – Sea ice – Sea level • Opportunities – Awareness – Capacity to respond 22 07.12.2006 – … C DMC Health • The Inuit & First Nations suffer more than twice the national average in: – Infant mortality, – Lung cancer, – Respiratory illnesses, – Unintentional injury, – Disability, – Suicide. 23 07.12.2006 C DMC Education University Degree Canada Nunavut University Trade HS Certificate High School Less than Grade 9 0% 24 07.12.2006 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: Statistics Canada C DMC Ethnicity Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP. 25 07.12.2006 C DMC Oil & Gas Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP. 26 07.12.2006 The Arctic Front Based on: mean air mass position: Li, S.M., R.W. Talbot, L.A. Barrie, R.C. Harriss, C.I. Davidson and J.-L. Jaffrezo, 1993. Seasonal and geographical variations of methane sulphanic acid in the Arctic troposphere. Atmos. Environ. 27A: 3011-3024. 27 07.12.2006 C DMC NOx Emissions Based on: Benkovitz, C.M., T.M. Schultz, J.M. Pacyna, L. Tarrason, J. Dignon, E.C. Voldner, P.A. Spiro, A.L. Jernnifer and T.E. Graedel, 1995. Gridded inventories of anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen. J. geophys. Res. 101: 29239. 28 07.12.2006 C DMC Lead Emissions Based on: Pacyna, J.M., B.D. Shin and P. Pacyna, 1993b. Global emissions of lead. Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa. 29 07.12.2006 C DMC Ocean Currents Based on: Macdonald, R.W. and J.M. Bewers, 1996. Contaminants in the arctic marine environment: priorities for protection. ICES J. mar. Sci. 53: 537-563. 30 07.12.2006 C DMC C DMC DIET POPs Based on: Hobson, K.A. and H.E. Welch, 1992. Determination of trophic relationships within a high Arctic marine food web using delta-13C and delta-15N analysis. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 84: 9-18. Hargrave, B.T., 1994. Sources and sinks of organochlorines in the Arctic marine food web. In: J.L. Murray and R.G. Shearer (eds). Synopsis of research conducted under the 1993/94 Northern Contaminants Program, pp. 178-184. Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, Ottawa, Environmental Studies 72, 459p. 31 07.12.2006 137Cs (Bq/m2) Estimated from bomb fallout and precipitation 32 07.12.2006 Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP. C DMC Average Cs137 in diet (for 100Bq/m2 dispersion) 33 07.12.2006 Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP. C DMC Drivers of Development government services scientific research military oil and gas large-scale mining small-scale mining religion/schools bio-resource trade subsistence 1850 WWII 1900 1950 2000 Source: www.keepwintercool.org/ earthimage.html Partner communities One of the routes for the NW Passage http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CLIMATESUMMARY/2003/IMAGES/annual.1954-2003.tchange.png From: http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/graphic0/seismol/canisos.gif Coping with Sea Level Change in 4000 yrs Source: Susan D.M. Rowley PreDorset Dorset Historic Contemporary C DMC 41 07.12.2006 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg C DMC Regional Patterns Differ 42 07.12.2006 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg www.sfu.ca/.../ physical%20ocean.html Source: www.geophysics.dias.ie/. ../slave_lakes.html Models of community adaptation: C DMC Climate vulnerability sets priorities Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities Response 46 07.12.2006 Models of community adaptation: C DMC All vulnerabilities set priorities Sensitivity to climate change Sensitivity to multiple stresses 47 07.12.2006 Communit y priorities Response Models of community adaptation: C DMC Local control is limited Sensitivity to climate change Sensitivity to multiple stresses 48 07.12.2006 Communit y priorities Community control Response Models of community adaptation: A fuller picture Sensitivity to climate change Sensitivity to multiple stresses Successful Responses 50 07.12.2006 C DMC Communit y priorities Community control Adaptive Capacity External resources C DMC Hypotheses • H0: Communities identify risks from climate change as a special priority. • H1a: Communities enjoy control commensurate with their priorities. • H1b: Communities enjoy control over matters involving climate change adaptation. • H2: CEDO priorities and resources match needs for broader community development planning. 51 07.12.2006 C DMC Nunavut Economic Development Strategy (NEDS) 2003 THE LAND - Respecting the land - Maintaining our mixed economy - Building on the knowledge of our Elders OUR PEOPLE - Economic development for youth - Education and training - Basic needs: housing, hospitals and schools OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES - Community capacity building and organizational development - Small and Inuit business development - Building the knowledge base OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY - Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work - Sector development and support systems - Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband 52 07.12.2006 Accessing the global marketplace C DMC Method • NEDS 2003 – 143 Action Items (excluding 24 implementation items) 53 07.12.2006 • NEDA priority identification • Our informed judgments about broader community priorities, sensitivity and levels of control Caveats: • Action items as units of observation. • NEDS as reflection of priorities – broad guiding principles – 4 forms of capital: E,H,S,P High Community Priorities THE LAND - Respecting the land o Maintaining our mixed economy - Building on the knowledge of our Elders OUR PEOPLE o Economic development for youth o Education and training o Basic needs: housing, hospitals and schools OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES o Community capacity building and organizational development - Small and Inuit business development - Building the knowledge base OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY 54 07.12.2006 - Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work - Sector development and support systems - Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband - Accessing the global marketplace C DMC Characterizing Community Priorities 70 60 Actions 50 40 30 20 10 None Low Medium 0 Community Priorities 55 07.12.2006 High C DMC Climate Sensitivity & Community Priority 48 Not a priority Low priority Medium priority Low Medium High priority Action Items 40 32 24 16 8 0 None Climate Sensivity 56 07.12.2006 High C DMC Community Priorities Sensitivity to climate 9% change 91% Sensitivity to multiple stresses 57 07.12.2006 High Communit y priorities Community control C DMC Characterizing Community Control Number of Action Items 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 None Low Medium 0 Community Control 58 07.12.2006 High C DMC Community Control & Community Priority Number of Action Items 48 No Control Low Control Medium Control High Control 40 32 24 16 8 0 None Low Medium Community Priorities 59 07.12.2006 High C DMC Community Control & Climate Sensitivity Number of Action Items 48 No Control Low Control Medium Control High Control 40 32 24 16 8 0 None Low Medium Climate Sensitivity 60 07.12.2006 High C DMC Characterizing Community Priorities Number of Action Items 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 None Low Medium 0 Community Priorities 61 07.12.2006 High C DMC C DMC Characterizing Community & CEDO Priorities Number of Action Items 100 None Low Medium High 80 60 40 20 0 Community CEDO Priorities 62 07.12.2006 “Make the implementation of the community development plan the primary task of the community economic developer.” C DMC Institutional Challenge XH : Communities identify risks from climate 0 change as a special priority. XH 1a: XH 1b: Communities enjoy control commensurate with their priorities. Communities enjoy control over matters involving climate change adaptation. XH : CEDO priorities and resources match 2 63 07.12.2006 needs for broader community development planning C DMC Climate change Is not a separable focus of effort Pollution & Contaminants Climate Changes Investment & Funding COMMUNITY Population Growth Policies Technology Values 64 07.12.2006 Resource Development C DMC Adaptation within existing priorities • Basic needs of the community are not being met. Their priorities are: employment, housing, health and education. • Response to climate change can aggravate or help to resolve these primary concerns. • Adaptation adds to the uncertainty of strategies to achieve planning goals. 65 07.12.2006 C DMC Conventional strategic planning is not a shared concept • Conventional strategic planning relies on a shared understanding of: – Long-term; – Risk; – Uncertainty; – Options & opportunities. 66 07.12.2006 Clues to a different perspective on planning C DMC • Cultural history – Comfort with short-term adaptation and uncertainty – Knowledge based on observations and experience – Ways of gathering information and using it in decision-making (e.g. Parlee et al.) • Perceptions of risks (e.g. Furgal et al.) • Trade-offs: valuation, acceptability, frame of experience • Values: recalibration given choices (Tribe), evolving culture 67 07.12.2006 C DMC Planning within the context of Inuit values • Basic differences in values and perceptions need to be characterized and incorporated into decision aids. • Tools for use in Nunavut need to reflect the key differences critical to strategic planning and adaptive management … 68 07.12.2006 Collective decision-making Human Agency Limited detection Imperfect knowledge Values that change with contexts/time. Blunt mechanisms for realizing goals ...we perceive changes in our environment, ... attribute their origin & project their future trends, ...evaluate various options, ...implement a chosen strategy, Evaluation & Feedback C DMC Summary • Few decisions hinge on climate alone AND what we do is rarely optimal. • But climate sets the context and concern about change AND allows us to ask: what are we doing and why? Creating an opening for doing better. 70 07.12.2006 C DMC Acknowledgements Thanks to: • Lara Whitley-Binder & the Climate Impacts Group for inviting me here. • Michelle Boyle, Dean Graetz, Milind Kandlikar, Mitch Small, James Risbey & Jason West who are co-authors on much of what has been presented here. • US National Science Foundation, Canada Research Chairs, Canadian Foundation for Innovation, Natural Resources Canada, Environment Canada, Resources for the Future, Electric Power Research Institute, Exxon-Mobil Education Foundation and Social and Humanities Research Council for financial support. 71 07.12.2006 C DMC Reported cases of Dengue 1980-96 72 07.12.2006 Source: US National Assessment Effects from each of these changes occur in… C DMC multiple dimensions Physical Economic 73 07.12.2006 Biotic Societal … and at multiple scales global circumpolar regional community 74 07.12.2006 C DMC EXT ERNAL POLL UTION CLIMATE CHANGE C DMC + + + Permafrost thaw + + Internal pollution + Hydrological pattern changes Swamps, slumping, erosion Harvest species PHYSIC AL - ECO NOMIC + Infrastructure - Imported food + Access BIOTIC SOCIETAL + # and size of communities Employment / Income Resource exploitation EXT ERNAL INVES TMENT 75 07.12.2006 + + Educa tion + + Traditional culture loss COMMU NITY + RES OURCE COMPANIES Human health Traditional diet + + Ecosystem and species composition Local land and water poll ution + + Bioaccumulation + Sea/river ice melt + Northward shif t of biomes and treeli ne + REG IONAL PEOP LE + CIRCUM POLAR TECHNOLOGY © M. Boyle 2003 C DMC Partysympatory Methods 76 07.12.2006 C DMC The Stones Have it • We need to understand climate change • Imbedded in a broader context of change • Evaluated by people whose values and means change • … 77 07.12.2006 Source:http://www.mick-jagger.com/oldstones.jpg A Stochastic Environment Where Attribution is Difficult Climate is a stochastic process: – the climate of any location involves variability in realized weather; – extreme weather events occur rarely; – the most visible/memorable impacts are due to these extremes; – rarity of extreme events makes detection of trends difficult; – often various impacts are inappropriately attributed to weather extremes. e.g., A stiff breeze in autumn leads to a shower of dead leaves. But we all recognize that the breeze did not kill the leaves. 78 07.12.2006 C DMC Economics is stochastic process: – the economy of any location involves variability in realized growth; – extreme economic events occur rarely; – the most visible/memorable impacts are due to these extremes; – rarity of extreme events makes detection of trends difficult; – often various impacts are inappropriately attributed to economic extremes. e.g., A rise in oil prices leads to a flood of auto-worker layoffs. Yet the public attributes this to high oil prices. New concepts or Misconceptions? • Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing adverse health effects. • A demonstrably good strategy will win approval. • Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors. • Expressions of uncertainty aid decision-making. • AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given. • … 79 07.12.2006 C DMC C DMC Integrated Assessment • From source to transformation to impacts… X • Interventions of all kinds at all points possible… X • Characterization of variations across populations… X • 80 07.12.2006 Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables… Population Adaptation C DMC The problem & its possible solutions Impacts Family planning Engineering the earth Atmospheric & climate change Economic Activity 81 07.12.2006 Fossil energy & Land cover Going green Curbing greed C DMC Integrated Assessment • From source to transformation to impacts… X • Interventions ONLY of all kinds at all points possible… ADD DETAIL WHERE X • VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH Characterization of variations across populations… X • 82 07.12.2006 Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables… C DMC Integrated Assessment • From source to transformation to impacts… X • Interventions ONLY of all kinds at all points possible… ADD DETAIL WHERE X • VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH Characterization of variations across populations… X • VALUE OF IS ONLY HIGH Characterization of INFORMATION uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables… WHERE IT CAN AFFECT POLICY CHOICE 83 07.12.2006 C DMC My Misconceptions • A demonstrably good strategy will win approval. ¬ NYC and HIV-AIDS • Expressions of uncertainty & VOI aid decision-making. ¬ NAPAP, Climate Change,… • Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors. ¬ Adaptive regulations. • AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given. ¬ UK Climate policy • Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing adverse health effects. 84 07.12.2006 ¬ Partnership with Translink Strategy Within What Context? • Social norms and acceptance: – Individual or collective responsibility? – Fatalism or social contract? • History: – What regulation/contracts already in place? – What relationships reign among stakeholders? … • And other challenges being faced … 85 07.12.2006 C DMC C DMC Next Gen IA • From source to transformation to impacts… X • Interventions of all kinds at all points possible… X • Characterization of variations across populations… X • Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables… X • Characterization of other challenges and options X • 86 07.12.2006 Social and behavioural norms