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CLIMATE ACTION TRACKER BROWN TO GREEN: G20 TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON ECONOMY Germany This country profile assesses Germany’s past, present and indications of future performance towards a low-carbon economy by evaluating emissions, decarbonisation, climate policy performance and climate finance. The profile summarises the respective findings from, amongst others, the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI, operated by Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe), the Climate Action Tracker (CAT, operated by Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute, Ecofys and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), and analyses from the Overseas Development Institute (ODI). Human Development Index GHG emissions per capita Share of global GHG emissions 0.92 0.82 GDP per capita (tCO2e/cap) G20 average 11.6 1.8% 0 Share of global GDP 8.7 1 G20 average G20 average Source: UNDP, data for 2015 Source: World Bank Indicators, data for 2012 $ 3.4% $ $ $ 35,725 $ 15,071 Source: IEA, data for 2013 14 1200 12 1000 10 800 8 600 6 400 4 200 30 20 26 20 22 20 18 20 14 20 10 20 20 20 19 19 19 06 0 02 -200 98 2 94 0 Emissions per capita (tCO2/capita) 1400 90 Total emissions (MtCO2e/a) GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS Historic emissions (excluding forestry) Energy-related CO2 emissions Energy-related CO2 emissions per capita Current policy emissions projections (excluding forestry) Historic forestry emissions/removals G20 average of energy-related CO2 emissions per capita Germany’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have dropped from 1248 MtCO2e in 1990 to 939 MtCO2e in 2012. It is expected this trend will continue. Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emission are a major part of total GHG emissions and developed simultaneously. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) are close to zero. At 9.3 tCO2, Germany’s energy-related per capita emissions are relatively high. The CCPI evaluates the country’s emissions level as poor, but recognises a positive trend. Composition of GHG emissions 87% N O 6% CH 5% F-Gases 1% CO2* 2 4 CCPI evaluation of emissions level and trend Level Weak trend very poor poor medium good very good Strong trend CO2 emissions from forestry 0% *CO2 emissions incl. LULUCF Source: Annex I countries: UNFCCC (2015); Non-Annex I countries: IEA (2014) and CAT (2015) Sources: Past energy related emissions from the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI); past non-energy and future emissions projections from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT). CCPI calculations are primary based on the most recent IEA data; CAT calculations are based on national policies and country communications.” Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy Germany - Country Profile DECARBONISATION Energy intensity of the economy otal Primary Energy Supply per GDP PPP (MJ per 2005 US dollar) 10 The energy intensity of the German economy (TPES/GDP) gradually declined over recent decades, and is far below the G20 average. The CCPI evaluates Germany’s energy intensity level as medium compared to other countries. The five-year trend indicates a positive development. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 20 12 20 10 20 08 20 06 20 04 20 02 20 00 19 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 0 Energy intensity CCPI evaluation of energy intensity of GDP Level Average energy intensity in G20 Weak trend Source: CCPI, 2016 very poor poor medium good Strong trend very good Carbon intensity of the energy sector 70 The carbon intensity of Germany’s energy supply (CO2/TPES) decreased from 1990 to 2006 and remains at a level just below the G20 average. Projections show carbon intensity will stay relatively constant for the next ten years and within the 2°C benchmark corridor, although lacking the necessary downward trend. The CCPI evaluates Germany's carbon intensity level as relatively poor compared to other countries, with a worsening trend. Tonnes of CO2 per TPES (tCO2/TJ) 60 50 40 30 20 10 Carbon intensity (past trend) Average carbon intensity in G20 Carbon intensity (current policy projection) Global benchmark for a 2°C pathway 30 20 26 20 22 20 18 20 14 20 10 20 06 20 02 20 98 19 94 19 19 90 0 CCPI evaluation of carbon intensity of energy sector Level Weak trend Sources: Past: CCPI; future projections: CAT very poor poor medium good Strong trend very good Share of coal in Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) 40% 6000000 35% 30% 4000000 25% 20% 3000000 15% 2000000 Total coal in TPES [TJ] 5000000 10% Since 1990, the share of coal in TPES has decreased. Starting at 37%, it dropped until 1999 and remained relatively constant around 24-26% until 2012. Projections assume the share of coal will further decrease in the future, but will still exceed the minimum value of a 2°C-compatible development. 1000000 5% 0 % of coal (past trend) % of coal (current policy projections) Average % of coal in G20 Global benchmark for a 2°C pathway (min & max) Source: CAT Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy 30 Evaluation of coal share in TPES 20 26 20 22 20 18 20 14 20 10 20 06 20 02 20 98 19 94 19 19 90 0 Total coal consumption (TJ) poor medium good Source: own evaluation Germany - Country Profile 70% 1600000 60% 1400000 1200000 50% 1000000 40% 800000 30% 600000 20% 400000 10% Total renewable energy in TPES [TJ] Renewable energy in TPES and electricity sector The share of renewable energy in electricity was relatively low in the 1990’s, but has steadily increased since. In 2005 it reached a share of 10% and grew to 23% in 2012. Future projections expect a strong increase up to a level of 58% in 2030. By comparison, the share of renewables in total primary energy supply increased more slowly, reaching a level of about 10% in 2013, close to the average of the G20 countries. The CCPI evaluates Germany as being a medium performer on its level of renewable energy but recognises a positive trend. 200000 0 % of renewable energy in electricity (past trend) % of renewable energy in TPES (past trend) % of renewable energy in electricity (current policy projections) G20 average % of renewable energy in TPES Total renewable energy consumption (TJ) 20 30 20 26 20 22 20 18 20 14 20 10 20 06 20 02 19 98 19 94 19 90 0 CCPI evaluation of renewable share in TPES Level Sources: CCPI and CAT Weak trend poor medium good Strong trend very good Emissions intensity of the electricity sector The electricity demand per capita steadily increased at the rate of the G20 average but at a much higher level. In 2012, it reached a level of 7062 kWh per capita, which is twice as high as the G20 average. It is expected that electricity demand will drop in the future, yet remain on a high level. Germany’s electricity emissions intensity has continuously decreased since 1990. Since 2004 it has been below the G20 average and is expected to further decrease in the future. Electricity demand per capita (past trend) Average electricity demand per capita in G20 Electricity demand per capita (current policy projections) 100 30 20 26 20 22 20 18 20 14 Good practice benchmark: without nuclear or large hydro potential (Denmark) Emissions intensity (past trend) Average emissions intensity in G20 Good practice benchmark: with large hydro potential (Norway) Emissions intensity (current policy projections) Source: CAT, 2015 20 20 10 0 06 30 20 26 20 22 20 18 20 14 20 10 20 06 20 02 20 98 19 19 19 94 0 20 1000 200 02 2000 300 20 3000 400 98 4000 500 19 5000 600 94 6000 700 19 7000 90 8000 19 Emissions intensity of electricity [gCO2/kWh] Electricity demand per capita 90 Electricity demand per capita [kWh/cap] very poor Source: CAT, 2015 Evaluation of the electricity emission intensity poor medium good Source: own evaluation Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy Germany - Country Profile CLIMATE POLICY PERFORMANCE Climate policy evaluation by experts Checklist of the climate policy framework CCPI experts praise Germany’s efforts for pushing a decarbonisation agenda in the G7, along with its commitment to climate finance, leading to some progress on last year's international policy evaluation. Germany’s national performance remains below average. Despite a target of 80% renewables in the electricity mix by 2050, Germany still relies on a stable use of lignite, after deciding to phase out nuclear power. Experts criticise the influence of the energy lobby. In the CCPI 2016 Germany received a relatively good ranking. Low emissions development plan for 2050* 2050 GHG emissions target Building codes, standards and incentives for low-emissions options Support scheme for renewables in the power sector Emissions performance standards for cars Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) The CCPI evaluates a country‘s performance in national and international climate policy through feedback from national energy and climate experts. Carbon tax very good * Understood as decarbonisation plans and not specifically as the plans called for in the Paris Agreement good Source: Climate Policy Database, 2016 medium CCPI evaluation of climate policy poor 6 5 01 4 01 I2 CC P I2 CC P 3 01 2 01 I2 CC P I2 CC P 1 01 0 01 I2 CC P I2 CC P 9 01 00 I2 CC P very good I2 good I2 medium CC P poor CC P very poor 00 8 very poor CCPI edition National Compatibility of national climate targets (INDCs) with a 2°C scenario 2500 Total emissions (MtCO2e/a) 2000 Max 1500 International Source: CCPI, 2016 As an EU member state, Germany did not submit its own Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) or emissions reduction target for COP21. Min 1000 500 0 - 500 Max Under its INDC, on 6 March 2015 the EU proposed a binding, economy-wide target to cut domestic greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% below 1990 levels in 2030. No individual EU member state has its own INDC. -1000 -1500 Min Historic emissions (excluding forestry) Historic forestry emissions/removals sufficient Source: CAT, 2015 Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy role model 30 20 26 20 22 20 Emissions in INDC scenario (min & max) CAT evaluation of the EUs Intended National Determinded Contributions (INDC) medium 18 Fair emissions reduction range in a 2°C pathway Current policy emissions projections (excluding forestry) inadequate 20 14 20 10 20 06 20 02 20 98 19 94 19 19 90 -2000 The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates the EU emissions target as “medium”, meaning the INDC is inconsistent with limiting warming below 2°C. It would require other countries to make a comparably greater effort, and much deeper emissions reductions. The overall level of GHG emissions reductions proposed in the EU28 INDC does not fall within the range of approaches for fair and equitable emission reductions. Current policies are projected to reduce domestic emissions by 23–35% below 1990 levels in 2030, and do not put the EU on a trajectory towards meeting either its 2030 or 2050 targets. The EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme is an important instrument to achieve its 2020 and 2030 targets. However, an accumulated surplus of emissions allowances could dilute the 40% GHG target by 7% in 2030. It is therefore important that the EU creates a robust market reserve for eliminating that surplus, to keep in line with the 40% GHG target. Germany - Country Profile FINANCING THE TRANSITION Investment attractiveness Allianz Energy and Climate Monitor HIGH RECAI* (E&Y index) Category (own assessment) HiGH Climate Transparency rates Germany’s investment attractiveness as high, due to good performance in most parameters that contribute to a stable investment environment. However, recent uncertainty around the provisions of the renewables law with a newly proposed cap of 40% to 45% power generation from renewables by 2025 has been flagged as a concern for future investment attractiveness in most indices. Sources: Allianz Energy and Climate Monitor and RECAI reports Trend** *Adapted from RECAI and re-classified in 3 categories (low, medium, high) for comparison purposes with Allianz Monitor. **Taken from RECAI issue of May 2016 The Allianz Energy & Climate Monitor ranks G20 member states on their relative fitness as potential investment destinations for building low-carbon electricity infrastructure. The investment attractiveness of a country is assessed through four categories: Policy adequacy, Policy reliability of sustained support, Market absorption capacity and the National investment conditions. The Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) produces score and rankings for countries’ attractiveness based on Macro drivers, Energy market drivers and Technology-specific drivers which together compress a set of 5 drivers, 16 parameters and over 50 datasets. Historical investments in renewable energy and investment gap This section shows Germany’s current investments in the overall power sector (including distribution and transmission) as well as in renewable energy expressed as the share of the total annual investments needed to be in line with a 2°C compatible trajectory. Investments in the power sector % of current investments in the power sector compared to the investment needs under a 2°C pathway 79% Investments in renewable energy for the power sector 74% % of current investments for renewable energy in the power sector compared to the investment needs under a 2°C pathway Source: Adapted from WEIO, 2014(1) WEIO (2014) compares annual average investments from 2000 to 2013 with average annual investments needed from 2015 to 2030 under a 2°C scenario (1) Carbon pricing mechanisms Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) An ETS caps the total level of GHG emissions and allows industries to trade allowances based on their marginal abatement cost. By creating a supply and demand for allowances, an ETS establishes a market price for GHG emissions. Carbon Tax A Carbon tax directly sets a price on carbon by defining a tax rate on GHG emissions or – more commonly – on the carbon content of fossil fuels. Unlike an ETS, a carbon tax is a price-based instrument that pre-defines the carbon price, but not the emissions reduction outcome of a carbon tax. While Germany has neither implemented nor considers a carbon tax, it is lobbying for a ETS-EU carbon price floor in order to strengthen the carbon pricing signals and boost the effectiveness of the existing EU-ETS. GHG Sources: World Bank and Ecofys, 2016; other national sources Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy Germany - Country Profile Fossil fuel subsidies Germany, Europe’s second largest coal producer, provides a significant level of subsidies to hard coal. In recent years, dwindling domestic reserves of oil and gas have led to increased reliance on imported fossil fuels and a rapid increase in renewable energy deployment to meet energy demand. As part of the G20 initiative to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, Germany agreed to discontinue hard coal subsidies for mining by the end of 2018, aiming to reduce mining production from 12.4 million tce in 2011 to 4 million tce by 2018. However, government budgetary support for research, development and deployment for oil, gas and coal has increased in the last few years. Average annual national subsidies (2013-14)* Germany G20 total % of government’s income from oil and gas production (2013)* $2.8 billion 0.1% $70 billion Source: ODI, 2015 *The indicators above refer only to subsidies for fossil fuel production, and include direct spending (e.g. government budget expenditure on infrastructure that specifically benefits fossil fuels), tax expenditure (e.g. tax deductions for investment in drilling and mining equipment) and other support mechanisms (e.g. capacity mechanisms). Public climate finance Germany has provided the third largest amount of climate finance relative to GDP, and has pledged the fourth highest amount to the GCF of any G20 donor. In its reported climate finance contribution, Germany only includes funding additional to a 2009 ODA baseline, or generated from new sources such as the EU ETS. German bilateral agencies including KfW and GIZ play a prominent role in the delivery of its climate finance, which is jointly managed by the Ministry of Environment (BMU) and the Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Germany’s contribution includes export credits to support German companies to invest in developing countries. Green Climate Fund pledge Average climate finance provided (2013-14) $ $ $ + $1 $2.59 billion billion bilateral climate finance multilateral climate funds $2.35 billion $0.24 billion Source: ODI, 2016 Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy Germany - Country Profile