Download Climate Change: Impacts and Responses

Climate Change: Impacts and Responses
Topic 4: Climate Change in the Recent Past
Sample exercises and activities
Climate Change: Impacts and Responses
Sample exercises and activities
Topic 4: Climate Change in the Recent Past
Exercise – Using causal diagrams to explore reasons for observed
changes and perceptions
Context
So far, in most semi-arid locations in Sub Saharan Africa where historical climate
data (daily records for 30 or more years) has been analysed the record has
indicated that:
• Temperature has increased significantly, particularly since the 1960s.
• Rainfall amounts and other rainfall characteristics continue to be variable, but
with no clear trends.
However, many people working in agriculture and rural development, including
many famers, perceive that the rainfall amounts and timing have changed. There is
therefore a difference between what meteorological data shows and some widely
held perceptions. This is quite important and has implications.
A possible explanation for this difference between perceptions and meteorological
data is that because most farmers don’t record and measure rainfall, they rely on
other observations. These include observations of crop yields, food availability in the
local area, water levels in streams and wells. When these are lower than what they
used to be, it is assumed that reduced rainfall is the cause. In addition, everyone is
talking about climate change now (the press, NGOs, farmers themselves etc…), so it
is natural to blame some of the observed changes on climate change.
There are of course many other causes of reduced yields, less food availability, and
lower water tables. For example, reduced yields can be caused by declining soil
fertility. Research has demonstrated that soil fertility has been declining across many
areas of SSA due to factors including little or no replacement of organic matter and
reduced crop rotation. In some areas fertiliser inputs have become more expensive
and are, therefore, used less. As population increases and there is greater pressure
on land, people are farming in more marginal land that is less fertile and produces
lower yields. Population increase also causes food shortages. Causes of declining
water tables include greater extraction and use as well as lower infiltration and
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Climate Change: Impacts and Responses
Topic 4: Climate Change in the Recent Past
Sample exercises and activities
retention as a result of vegetation loss and deterioration of soil structure. All this
reduces yields and leads to greater hunger.
It is important to take all of these influences into account to ensure that effective
solutions are developed and implemented. If farmers and those that work to support
agriculture (policy makers, development organisations, NGOs) think that climate
change is the main or only cause, there is a danger of ‘going down the wrong road’
and think that these problems cannot be addressed because climate is outside the
control of individuals and organisations. Soil fertility however is something that can
be addressed by a farmer and organisations and policy can also help. Water use,
overgrazing and vegetation change are also issues that can be addressed by local
communities. It is therefore important that policy focuses on these issues in addition
to climate change.
A very useful way for students, and others, to explore this is by constructing a causal
diagram.
Developing a causal diagram
A causal diagram can be developed by a group of students, communities or
farmers (literate or non/semi-literate) using participatory methods. It can be a
powerful tool, partly because participants already have all the information and
knowledge but have not structured or thought about it before. Furthermore, it is a
method that not only improves shared understanding of the causes of problems, but
helps to identify what actions can be taken by participants and others to address
the problems. Causal diagrams can be created using the following steps.
Materials
You will need a large sheet of paper and a marker pen.
Procedure
1. Identify with the participants the main ‘end problem’ or issue to focus on (e.g.
hunger / reduced food availability) and write it or use a symbol to represent it
at the bottom of the flip chart/space that you will use to draw the diagram. In
our example in Figure 1 the end problem is, “Low income from cotton”.
2. Ask participants to discuss and make a list of possible causes of this problem.
3. Identify ‘immediate’ causes of the problem (not just from the list) and put
each of these on the diagram with symbols. Immediate causes are ones that
directly influence the problem, without any intermediate steps in between. In
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Climate Change: Impacts and Responses
Topic 4: Climate Change in the Recent Past
Sample exercises and activities
our example in Figure 1 the immediate causes are “Low grade” and “Low
yield”.
4. Put arrows on the diagram from the immediate causes to the problem.
5. Next, identify the causes of each immediate cause and add them to the
diagram. These are called ‘intermediary causes’ Use arrows to connect the
intermediary causes to the immediate causes to show the direction of cause
and effect. In our example in Figure 1 the intermediary causes are “Poor
quality”, “Many pests”, “Poor emergence” and “No manure”.
6. Continue in the same way adding causes and arrows.
7. The problems at the edge of the diagram are ‘root causes’. If they are solved
they should solve all the other problems! Some perhaps can be solved –
discuss which, how and by whom.
8. For root problems that cannot be solved, work back in from the edge until
you reach a problem/cause that can be addressed. Highlight the positive
effects of the solutions on the diagram.
Having completed the diagram, ask the participants to discuss:
• The causes of the main problem. Which do they think have the greatest
effect?
• Where would they look for evidence to identify which have the greatest
effect?
• What are the practical implications of this for policy and practice?
Some hints in conducting a causal diagram
• Do not put the same problem/cause on the diagram more than once.
• Try not to put ‘lack of money’ on the diagram.
• Use something you can redraw for lines so you can rearrange your diagram
(like a pencil or string).
• Use symbols that are easily remembered.
• The role of the researcher is to facilitate the drawing of the diagram by the
participants. The ideas, causes and effects should all come from the
participants.
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Climate Change: Impacts and Responses
Topic 4: Climate Change in the Recent Past
Sample exercises and activities
Figure 1: An example causal diagram for “Low income from cotton” (in this diagram
the immediate causes and intermediary causes have used the same symbol
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