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Climate Change, People, and the Carbon Cycle An emerging challenge: Supporting Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies with Observations, Modeling, and Analysis GHGs - An emerging challenge JH Butler, NOAA Int’l Conf. Research Infrastructures 21-23 March, 2012 Why this is an urgent issue • • The primary cause of climate change and ocean acidification is the increase of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, predominantly carbon dioxide Three reasons for having more and better information Climate feedbacks Success of GHG management Ocean Acidification GHGs - An emerging challenge JH Butler, NOAA Int’l Conf. Research Infrastructures 21-23 March, 2012 Why Regional Scale Information? • • • • Societies are advancing efforts to reduce CO2 emissions Mitigation efforts are diverse and vary by nation, region, & emission sector The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, and the number of GHGs make tracking these efforts challenging, but surmountable Large-scale emission reduction approaches require independent, scientific monitoring to support verification and policy decisions Ozone Depletion Air Quality Acid Rain GHGs - An emerging challenge JH Butler, NOAA Int’l Conf. Research Infrastructures 3 21-23 March, 2012 Tools for Global Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases • “Bottom-up” measurements (Accounting = “checkbook”) • “Top-down” measurements (Validation = “bank statement”) • Reanalysis (compares checkbook with bank statement) Emissions reporting Reported and “verified” offsets Site-specific measurements Comprehensive atmospheric observation system Ecosystem and ocean observations Transport model Assimilation Regional fluxes (emission and uptake) GHGs - An emerging challenge JH Butler, NOAA Int’l Conf. Research Infrastructures 21-23 March, 2012 Satellites “Carbon Weather” CarbonTracker™ TCCON Current Network Earth Networks GHGs - An emerging challenge JH Butler, NOAA Int’l Conf. Research Infrastructures 21-23 March, 2012 Current Governance ? “. . . it doesn’t really matter who does it, but the ECVs [Essential Climate Variables] must be tackled, one by one, and with vigor. At the moment GHGs - An emerging challenge there is more JH Butler, NOAA cackle than tackle.” Need for stronger political and financial support to succeed Int’l Conf. Research Infrastructures 21-23 March, 2012