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Outlook for the World Economy Forest Governance and Trade Chatham House Wednesday 24th January, 2007 Catherine Barber, FCO Drivers of Change Trade and finance Technology Migration & demography ITALY LIBYA Growth predictions GDP, major world economies, US$bn, 2005-2020 20,000 18,000 16,000 US EU25 China India 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2020 Trade and finance Trade is growing... … as are imbalances Current accounts, $bn 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 United States Japan C hina Other emerging/developing Top 10 oil exporters Other advanced 2000 2003 2006 Natural resources Emerging markets are driving commodity price rises... … and also rising emissions of greenhouse gases Practical implications The case of China & Africa • 27% of Africa's exports go to Asia (10% to China) • Chinese FDI in Africa is growing - and diversifying • Beijing is committed to furthering trade, aid and investment in Africa