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Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban planning and infrastructure decisions Urban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10th September 2013 With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University) Stuart Barr, Ali Ford, Claire Walsh (Newcastle University) Mark McCarthy (Met Office) Mike Batty (UCL) [email protected] Challenge: Adaptation of cities and infrastructure to global change • Socio-economic change – – – – Growing global population Changing demography Socio-economic trends Ownership and governance • Urbanization – Concentrates infrastructure – Implications for external ‘support’ infrastructure • Environmental pressures – Climate change – Broader sustainability tradeoffs – Relationship with land use • Deterioration and replacement Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Some complicities and tradeoffs Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Response Potential benefit Potential negative impact Air conditioning Reduce heat stress Increase energy needs and emissions Densification of cities Reduce public transport emissions Desalination plants Irrigation Secure water supply Supplying water for food Biofuels for transport and Reduce GHG emissions energy Catalytic convertors Improve air quality Cavity wall insulation Raise flood defence Reduce GHG emissions Reduce flood frequency Pesticides Control vector borne disease Conservation areas Preserve biodiversity and ecosystems Insurance/disaster relief Spread the risk from high-impact events Traffic bypasses or radial Displaces traffic from city centre, routes improving air quality and reducing noise Discourage vehicle use to reduce Vehicle user charging greenhouse gas emissions Increase urban heat island intensity and exposure to grater noise pollution Increase greenhouse gas emissions Salinisation of soil, degradation of wetlands, Encourage deforestation; replace food crops raising food prices; can increase local air quality pollutants such as NOx Large scale mining and international resource movements Increase damages from a flood event Encourage more development (positive feedbacks) Impact on human health, increased insect resistance Loss of community livelihoods Reduce longer term incentive to adapt Can increase congestion and journey times (consequently overall greenhouse gas emissions) Lead to greater social inequality Adapted from: Dawson (2011) Potential pitfalls on the pathway to sustainable cities…and how to avoid them, Carbon Management, Vol 2(2) City-scale climate scenarios Socio-economic scenarios • Temperature • Precipitation • Sea level rise • Storm surge Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Regional economy • Dynamic resource interactions between sectors • Specialist energy sector module Greenhouse gas emissions • Multi-sectoral emissions accounting • Detailed sub-modules for transport (personal and freight) Land use Transport Model • Employment • Multi-modal transport • Developed land cover • Population • Planning constraints and attractors Climate impacts and adaptation Analyse risks of • Flooding • Drought • Urban heat Test adaptation options Analysis of city-scale energy policies Testing of policy options Working with key London stakeholders Climate vs. Socio-economic change: Flood risk Baseline 2100 Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Eastern axis 2100 2005 Centralisation 2100 Sub-urbanisation 2100 Socio-economic vs. Climate change Flood risk for different land use change Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Socio-economic vs. Climate change Attribution of flood risk Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Drought risk: Climate vs. Socio-economic change Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Drought risk: Climate vs. Socio-economic change - 34% (annually incremented) by 2100 (mid-point of sustainable homes code) +300,000 Ml from 2020 +300 Ml/day from 2020 - 40% (annually incremented) by 2100 Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Drought risk: Potential mitigation tradeoff Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Energy consumption 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 Carbon Dioxide (Mt/year) 1.25 Land use: Adaptation vs. Mitigation Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Average current heat emissions Land use pressures Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Tough decisions Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Transformation of urban systems to be climate sensitive will require • Motivation and leadership • Much improved understanding of the mechanisms of interaction in urban function, via: – Land use – Transport – Resource flows (energy, water, nutrients) – Building form and function – Urban climate – Information networks • Recognition of the time scales of change and the legacy of past decisions (planning, infrastructure, buildings) • Develop collective understanding of urban function and collaborative platforms for exploration of transition strategies Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Can IA information improve the urban experience? Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research “We have come to recognise how integrated modelling of the type delivered by the Tyndall Centre Cities programme can help to bring different stakeholders together to develop common understanding of processes and consequences of long term change. That collective understanding is essential if we are to manage change rather than become its victims.” Alex Nickson, Strategy manager: climate change adaptation and water, Greater London Authority http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceser/researchprogramme/outputs/ [email protected] Challenges for using IA information to improve the urban experience? Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research 1. How far is far enough in tracking down consistency, interactions and feedbacks? 2. How should we estimate and communicate uncertainties? 3. Can we transfer IA insights and methods to other cities worldwide? 4. How can IA information flows be best exploited by organisations and individuals? 5. How can we build a global coalition of researchers and practitioners equipped to address these problems? Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban planning and infrastructure decisions Urban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10th September 2013 With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University) Stuart Barr, Ali Ford, Claire Walsh (Newcastle University) Mark McCarthy (Met Office) Mike Batty (UCL) [email protected]