* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download The Environment
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Fossil fuel phase-out wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Carbon pricing in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Climate Change conference wikipedia , lookup
Carbon governance in England wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Decarbonisation measures in proposed UK electricity market reform wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Business action on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate Science How serious is the problem? Bruce M. Everett July 15, 2014 The argument as portrayed in the press Yes Do something No Do nothing Is climate change real? The real argument is much more complicated Has the Earth warmed? Yes. (Some debate about numbers.) The real argument is much more complicated Are humans responsible? Has the Earth warmed? Yes. (Some debate about numbers.) Yes. (Not sure how much.) President Obama’s Tweet (May 16, 2013) Professor Cook’s Study • Examined abstracts of 14,000 papers on climate. • Did not interview authors. • Selected 2,000 which addressed climate change. • Concluded that 97% either: – State that humans are the primary cause of observed global warming, or – State or imply that humans caused some of the observed warming, but don’t say how much. http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/article President Obama’s Tweet (May 16, 2013) and, to some degree, ˆ The real argument is much more complicated Can we predict future warming? Are humans responsible? Has the Earth warmed? Yes. (Some debate about numbers.) Yes. (Not sure how much.) No! Climate system is too complex. Scientific understanding is insufficient. Complex Systems – Bird Swarms Can we predict their behavior? How do we know whether we understand the problem? Science! Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynman on the Scientific Method 1. Guess 2. Compute the consequences of the guess 3. Compare the computation results to nature Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynman on the Scientific Method “It doesn't matter how beautiful your guess is or how smart you are or what your name is. If it disagrees with experiment, it's wrong.” The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous.. Thomas L. Friedman New York Times Columnist The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous.. Thomas L. Friedman New York Times Columnist Palmer Drought Severity Index for US 8 6 Wet 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Dry -8 Source: NOAA The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous.. Thomas L. Friedman New York Times Columnist # of Category 5 Hurricanes since 1949 16 12 There have been no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since September 6, 2007. 8 4 Trend 0 Source: Unisys hurricane data base Climate computer models cannot yet make any meaningful predictions. The atmosphere has not experienced any net warming in the last 15 years. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a committee. Committees do politics, not science. Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts. Richard Feynman We do not know if climate change is: Catastrophic Unimportant Beneficial How much does carbon mitigation cost? Bruce M. Everett July 15, 2014 Carbon mitigation Difficult and painful $/tonne of CO2 Harder and more expensive Easy and cheap 0 100% CO2 reduction $/tonne of CO2 Carbon mitigation $200 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction Easy steps Plant a tree Negligible impact Easy steps Compact fluorescent lights 0.4% carbon reduction Easy steps Change your thermostat 2° 0.07% reduction Harder steps Hybrid cars ($165/mt) 0.8% reduction $/tonne of CO2 Carbon mitigation $200 Hybrid cars Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction Harder steps Nuclear power ($180/mt) Cost twice as much as natural gas Safety? Public acceptance? $/tonne of CO2 Carbon mitigation $200 Nuclear Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction Harder steps Onshore wind power ($190/mt) Cost twice as much as natural gas Low utilization Intermittent $/tonne of CO2 Carbon mitigation Onshore wind $200 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction Really painful steps Electric cars ($600/mt) Cost twice as much Poor performance (low range) Not much reduction with today’s grid Carbon mitigation $/tonne of CO2 Electric cars $200 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction Really painful steps Solar ($700/mt) Cost 4-5X as much as natural gas Low utilization Intermittent Carbon mitigation $/tonne of CO2 Solar $200 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction Really painful steps Light rail ($10,000/mt) Huge capital cost Low ridership Some systems save no CO2! Carbon mitigation $/tonne of CO2 Light rail $200 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction Really painful steps Carbon capture and sequestration (?/mt) Unproven technology Cost and performance unknown Impact of carbon taxes • US current emits ~5 billion metric tons of CO2 annually • A $20/mt tax = $100 billion per year $1,000 per household • A $200/mt tax = $1 trillion per year $10,000 per household • A $500/mt tax = $2.5 trillion per year $25,000 per household Question: How much should we pay to insure against an unknown risk? Climate Change What should we do? Bruce M. Everett July 15, 2014 Effective policies require: • A clear understanding of the issue • A pathway to a solution D-Day (June 6, 1944) What does it take to win? Global CO2 Emissions from Energy 1990 = 22 Billion tonnes Rest of the World OECD Europe China US Source: Energy Information Administration Global CO2 Emissions from Energy 2013 = 33 Billion tonnes Rest of the World OECD Europe China US Source: Energy Information Administration Global CO2 Emissions from Energy 2030 = 41 Billion tonnes Rest of the World OECD Europe China US Source: Energy Information Administration UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes: • 40-70% reduction from 2010 levels by 2050 • 1.3% to 3.0% annual reductions 40% reduction case President Obama’s Climate Plan (“War on Coal”) would reduce 2030 global emissions by ~1%. A contribution of 3% of the IPCC requirement. US 40% reduction case The US nuclear revival The EU target for 2030 is a 40% reduction versus 1990 levels. A contribution of 8% of the IPCC requirement. EU 40% reduction case China and Germany, in particular, have made the clean energy transition central to their overall economic development strategies.. “The Green Industrial Revolution and the United States” Center for American Progress December, 2013 Germany – Electric Power Supply, 2013 Hydro (4%) Solar (6%) Wind (10%) Nuclear (19%) Natural Gas (8%) ? Germany – Electric Power Supply, 2013 Hydro (4%) Solar (6%) Wind (10%) Nuclear (19%) Natural Gas (8%) Growth 2013/2012 Coal (53%) Wind +1.3 TWh Solar +1.8 TWh Coal +7.7 TWh 2013 Electric Power Supply, US vs Germany Hydro (4%) Solar (6%) Solar (<1%) Hydro (7%) Wind (4%) Wind (10%) Nuclear (19%) Coal (53%) Nuclear (20%) Coal (40%) Natural Gas (28%) Natural Gas (8%) 0.50 kg CO2/kWh 0.46 kg CO2/kWh China’s CO2 emissions from coal in 2030 (assuming no solar or wind) Wind (5%) Solar (3%) Projected growth GW 2013 2030 Wind 92 400 Solar 10 270 Equivalent to a 2% reduction in global carbon emissions 12.1 billion12.1 mt CO 11.2 mt CO2 billion CObillion 2 →mt 2 Carbon mitigation $/tonne of CO2 The European Trading System (ETS) has a current price of ~$8/mt. $200 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction Carbon mitigation $/tonne of CO2 The US Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) has a current price of ~$5/mt. $200 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction If you believe there is a problem, show us a solution!