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Climate Science
How serious is the problem?
Bruce M. Everett
July 15, 2014
The argument as portrayed
in the press
Yes
Do something
No
Do nothing
Is climate
change real?
The real argument is much more
complicated
Has the Earth
warmed?
Yes.
(Some debate
about
numbers.)
The real argument is much more
complicated
Are humans
responsible?
Has the Earth
warmed?
Yes.
(Some debate
about
numbers.)
Yes.
(Not sure
how much.)
President Obama’s Tweet
(May 16, 2013)
Professor Cook’s Study
• Examined abstracts of 14,000 papers on climate.
• Did not interview authors.
• Selected 2,000 which addressed climate change.
• Concluded that 97% either:
– State that humans are the primary cause of
observed global warming, or
– State or imply that humans caused some of the
observed warming, but don’t say how much.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/article
President Obama’s Tweet
(May 16, 2013)
and, to some degree,
ˆ
The real argument is much more
complicated
Can we predict
future
warming?
Are humans
responsible?
Has the Earth
warmed?
Yes.
(Some debate
about
numbers.)
Yes.
(Not sure
how much.)
No!
Climate system is
too complex.
Scientific
understanding is
insufficient.
Complex Systems – Bird Swarms
Can we predict their behavior?
How do we know
whether we
understand the
problem?
Science!
Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynman
on the Scientific Method
1. Guess
2. Compute the consequences
of the guess
3. Compare the computation
results to nature
Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynman
on the Scientific Method
“It doesn't matter how
beautiful your guess is or
how smart you are or what
your name is. If it disagrees
with experiment, it's wrong.”
The weather gets weird.
The hots are expected to
get hotter, the wets wetter,
the dries drier and the
most violent storms more
numerous..
Thomas L. Friedman
New York Times Columnist
The weather gets weird.
The hots are expected to
get hotter, the wets wetter,
the dries drier and the
most violent storms more
numerous..
Thomas L. Friedman
New York Times Columnist
Palmer Drought Severity Index for US
8
6
Wet
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Dry
-8
Source: NOAA
The weather gets weird.
The hots are expected to
get hotter, the wets wetter,
the dries drier and the
most violent storms more
numerous..
Thomas L. Friedman
New York Times Columnist
# of Category 5 Hurricanes since 1949
16
12
There have been no Category 5
hurricanes in the Atlantic since
September 6, 2007.
8
4
Trend
0
Source: Unisys hurricane data base
Climate computer models cannot yet
make any meaningful predictions.
The atmosphere has not experienced
any net warming in the last 15 years.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change is a committee.
Committees do politics,
not science.
Science is the belief in the
ignorance of experts.
Richard Feynman
We do not know if climate
change is:
Catastrophic
Unimportant
Beneficial
How much does carbon
mitigation cost?
Bruce M. Everett
July 15, 2014
Carbon mitigation
Difficult and
painful
$/tonne of CO2
Harder and
more
expensive
Easy and
cheap
0
100%
CO2 reduction
$/tonne of CO2
Carbon mitigation
$200
Really
painful
$20
Hard
Easy
0
100%
CO2 reduction
Easy steps
Plant a tree
Negligible impact
Easy steps
Compact fluorescent lights
0.4% carbon reduction
Easy steps
Change your thermostat 2°
0.07% reduction
Harder steps
Hybrid cars ($165/mt)
0.8% reduction
$/tonne of CO2
Carbon mitigation
$200
Hybrid cars
Really
painful
$20
Hard
Easy
0
100%
CO2 reduction
Harder steps
Nuclear power ($180/mt)
Cost twice as much as natural gas
Safety?
Public acceptance?
$/tonne of CO2
Carbon mitigation
$200
Nuclear
Really
painful
$20
Hard
Easy
0
100%
CO2 reduction
Harder steps
Onshore wind power ($190/mt)
Cost twice as much as natural gas
Low utilization
Intermittent
$/tonne of CO2
Carbon mitigation
Onshore wind
$200
Really
painful
$20
Hard
Easy
0
100%
CO2 reduction
Really painful steps
Electric cars ($600/mt)
Cost twice as much
Poor performance (low range)
Not much reduction with today’s grid
Carbon mitigation
$/tonne of CO2
Electric cars
$200
Really
painful
$20
Hard
Easy
0
100%
CO2 reduction
Really painful steps
Solar ($700/mt)
Cost 4-5X as much as natural gas
Low utilization
Intermittent
Carbon mitigation
$/tonne of CO2
Solar
$200
Really
painful
$20
Hard
Easy
0
100%
CO2 reduction
Really painful steps
Light rail ($10,000/mt)
Huge capital cost
Low ridership
Some systems save no CO2!
Carbon mitigation
$/tonne of CO2
Light rail
$200
Really
painful
$20
Hard
Easy
0
100%
CO2 reduction
Really painful steps
Carbon capture and sequestration (?/mt)
Unproven technology
Cost and performance unknown
Impact of carbon taxes
• US current emits ~5 billion metric tons of
CO2 annually
• A $20/mt tax = $100 billion per year
$1,000 per household
• A $200/mt tax = $1 trillion per year
$10,000 per household
• A $500/mt tax = $2.5 trillion per year
$25,000 per household
Question:
How much should we pay to insure
against an unknown risk?
Climate Change
What should we do?
Bruce M. Everett
July 15, 2014
Effective policies require:
• A clear understanding of the issue
• A pathway to a solution
D-Day (June 6, 1944)
What does it take to win?
Global CO2 Emissions from Energy
1990 = 22 Billion tonnes
Rest of the World
OECD Europe
China
US
Source: Energy Information Administration
Global CO2 Emissions from Energy
2013 = 33 Billion tonnes
Rest of the World
OECD Europe
China
US
Source: Energy Information Administration
Global CO2 Emissions from Energy
2030 = 41 Billion tonnes
Rest of the World
OECD Europe
China
US
Source: Energy Information Administration
UN Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) proposes:
• 40-70% reduction from 2010 levels
by 2050
• 1.3% to 3.0% annual reductions
40% reduction case
President Obama’s Climate Plan (“War on Coal”)
would reduce 2030 global emissions by ~1%.
A contribution of 3% of the IPCC requirement.
US
40% reduction case
The US nuclear revival
The EU target for 2030 is a 40% reduction
versus 1990 levels.
A contribution of 8% of the IPCC requirement.
EU
40% reduction case
China and Germany, in
particular, have made the clean
energy transition central to their
overall economic development
strategies..
“The Green Industrial Revolution
and the United States”
Center for American Progress
December, 2013
Germany – Electric Power Supply, 2013
Hydro (4%)
Solar (6%)
Wind
(10%)
Nuclear
(19%)
Natural Gas (8%)
?
Germany – Electric Power Supply, 2013
Hydro (4%)
Solar (6%)
Wind
(10%)
Nuclear
(19%)
Natural Gas (8%)
Growth 2013/2012
Coal (53%)
Wind
+1.3 TWh
Solar
+1.8 TWh
Coal
+7.7 TWh
2013 Electric Power Supply, US vs Germany
Hydro (4%)
Solar (6%)
Solar (<1%)
Hydro (7%)
Wind
(4%)
Wind
(10%)
Nuclear
(19%)
Coal (53%)
Nuclear
(20%)
Coal (40%)
Natural Gas
(28%)
Natural Gas (8%)
0.50 kg CO2/kWh
0.46 kg CO2/kWh
China’s CO2 emissions from coal in 2030
(assuming no solar or wind)
Wind
(5%)
Solar
(3%)
Projected growth
GW
2013
2030
Wind
92
400
Solar
10
270
Equivalent to a 2%
reduction in global
carbon emissions
12.1 billion12.1
mt CO
11.2
mt CO2
billion
CObillion
2 →mt
2
Carbon mitigation
$/tonne of CO2
The European Trading
System (ETS) has a
current price of ~$8/mt.
$200
Really
painful
$20
Hard
Easy
0
100%
CO2 reduction
Carbon mitigation
$/tonne of CO2
The US Regional
Greenhouse Gas Initiative
(RGGI) has a current
price of ~$5/mt.
$200
Really
painful
$20
Hard
Easy
0
100%
CO2 reduction
If you believe there is a problem,
show us a solution!