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Actually Too Big To Fail: The History of Climate Catastrophe And The Future of Work Natasha Iskander, New York University @natashaiskander Louis Hyman, Cornell University @louishyman | The future of taxis—in the context of ecological change—is just a rounding error | 1 As we think about the future of work, we worry about the rise of robots, but not the rise of the oceans | 2 We live in a time of converging crises and it can feel overwhelming, but we have seen this before Climate Change Automation Migrant Populations | 3 We need to summon the political will in the face of a crisis that is not as visible as the Dust Bowl or the Great Depression, but is happening nonetheless “We must act. We must act quickly.” President Roosevelt First Inaugural Address, 1933 | 4 The 1930s faced the convergence of the Great Depression and the Dust Bowl, both of which had their roots in the financial speculation of the 1920s Stock market speculation Crash of 1929 Economic Crisis Urban mortgage speculation Mortgage Crisis of 1931 Farm mortgage speculation Dust Bowl Ecological Crisis | 5 The New Deal had bold experiments in remaking the economy, but it was less ambitious in ecology • Restructured urban and farm mortgage system • Restructured investment and commercial banking Economic Crisis • Created investment vehicles for cutting-edge technology • Created investment vehicles for locally-own cooperative infrastructure • Directly funded infrastructure • And many more… Ecological Crisis Our economic imagination was stronger than our ecological imagination • Planted kudzu | 6 To confront these issues, we will need collaborative disagreement. We, for instance, disagree. Approach Mitigation Adaptation Perspective • We need to fundamental alter the assumptions of our political economy to mitigate climate change Criticism • Not realistic to expect to change the rules of capitalism • We need to adapt our political economy to climate change, but do not need to alter its underlying logic • Will not go far enough, fast enough to stave off extinction | 7 To confront these issues, we will need collaborative disagreement Adaptation Jesse Jones Reconstruction Finance Corporation Banker, Investor, Publisher Mitigation Harold Ickes Secretary of the Interior Public Works Administration Politician | 8 To confront these issues, we will need collaborative disagreement Approach Representative Harold Ickes Mitigation Iconic Quote • “We have left it so far to private enterprise, and the conditions we have are the result.” • “the bankers began to hoard. They called in loans. They declined to make loans. In the spreading fright the aim … was simply to convert everything possible into cash and let the business of extending credit – the lifeblood of commerce and industry — take shelter until the dark skies had cleared.” Secretary of the Interior Public Works Administration Politician Jesse Jones Adaptation Reconstruction Finance Corporation Banker, Investor, Publisher | 9 The causes of our crises today, as in the 1930s, are man-made, and the solutions must be as well “We are stricken by no plague of locusts.” President Roosevelt First Inaugural Address, 1933 Mitigation Adaptation | 10 The Dust Bowl was the worst ecological disaster in US History and becomes a political problem | 11 “We thought it was our judgment, we thought it was our doom” Black Friday, April 14, 1935 | 12 The Dust Bowl was in America’s heartland | 13 The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the Great Plains of the 1910s | 14 The WWI price bump encouraged over-investment and the great “plow up” of the grasslands | 15 World War I prices never came back, and as suitcase farmers walked away, the soil turned to dust. 1/3 of the land became vulnerable | 16 Economic crisis and ecological crisis hit the poorest hardest. | 17 2.5 million people—mostly the poorest and those without resources—abandoned the land. | 18 These numbers sound big, but they are not. Economic systems are even more fragile than the ecology. Source: Hornbeck 2012 | 19 “Okies” migrated at a time of economic crisis, which made them disproportionately visible | 20 The ecological interventions to fix the Dust Bowl were timid. Hugh Bennett at National Erosion Research Center, OK The Soil Conservation Service does “more of the same,” and doesn’t meaningfully alter farming practices | 21 Today, we are actually doing what we did before and expecting it to turn out differently Wheat farming using aquifer water Increases in Irrigated Farmland in Great Plains | 22 Drought and dust storms have returned to the Great Plains. Dust storm in Oklahoma Unplanted cotton field We have not learned from the Dust Bowl | 23 The economic policies of the New Deal helped solve the underlying migration and investment issues of the Dust Bowl, even when that was not their primary motivation Flooded “Hooverville” shack in California (1935) Hooverville in NYC | 24 ~300,000 migrants went to California, most as pickers in the San Joaquin, and as workers in LA. Source: Gregory 1989 | 25 Our banks today also have trillions in idle capital that needs to be invested. Reserve balances $billion $2,420 Banks have $2.3 trillion sitting unused. $2,322 For comparison… the entire federal budget is $3.8 trillion $98 Required Maintained Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/ | 26 The Depression was a crisis, in part, of idle capital. More than a graph, consider this letter between the heads of Citibank and Bank of America | 27 The New Deal was not just about spending; it was about investing to restart the economy | 28 A variety of public institutions rechanneled private capital, making postwar capitalism possible Private Capital Federal Market Making Borrowers Outcomes • Local banks • Finance companies • Suburbia • Car Loans • Home improvements • Local cooperatives • Farm electricity • Electrical equipment • Consumer goods • Monopoly and oligopoly corporations • • • • Aluminum Synthetic rubber Planes Electronics | 29 Aerospace, like many other industries, took off through massive investment in the 1930s. Private capital was channeled through government mechanisms into novel industries. Al The New Deal creatively used finance to create incentives for private capital investment in risky, but growing, areas Housing Electricity Aerospace Electronics Mining | 30 How do you get someone to invest in something that seems impossible? Aerospace Climate Change Industries ? | 31 In the 1930s, the airplane remained an oddity, and aerospace a small industry with possibilities, like spaceplanes today. | 32 The Defense Plant Corporation, now forgotten, created the American aerospace industry and other key sectors of the postwar economy Key facts: • Provided insurance program for private investments in unproven technologies • 3/5 of DFC funds went into aerospace (the rest to aluminum and electronics) • By end of war, aerospace was 4x larger than prewar auto industry • 1000 airfields built (before WWII only 28 fields nationwide) • Created new centers of manufacturing in the West and Midwest, where Dust Bowl migrants went. American aerospace was, basically, created during World War II The war legitimated the quasi-corporation but the war was not necessary for the ways in which the DPC promoted the investment of private capital | 33 Other industries, like aluminum, benefitted as well RFC Financing (December 31, 1945) $millions Aerospace 3,184 1,148 Steel Synthetic rubber 1,056 842 Aluminum Magnesium 449 Industrial chemicals 214 Other metals 178 Radio 120 | 34 Aluminum transformed from a 19th century oddity into a 20th century commodity, like we need to do with non-carbon energy. We need green energy to transform from gold to disposable. Aluminum and Gold Bracelet (1858) Beer can (late 20th century) | 35 Doing this today would cost a total of $95 billion, which is a drop in the bucket. What is the aerospace of today that doesn’t require so much oil? RFC Financing (December 31, 1945) $billion in 2015 dollars Reserve balances $billion $2,420 42 Aerospace Steel 15 14 Synthetic rubber 11 Aluminum $2,322 6 Magnesium Industrial chemicals 3 Other metals 2 $98 Radio 2 Required Maintained | 36 When we think about coming out of the Dust Bowl and Depression, we need to realize that there was not just one solution, but a variety of—often inconsistent—experiments Mitigation Adaptation Not all were successful, and some of them were total failures. | 37 Climate change is multifaceted, so let’s just consider rising sea levels Post-Katrina New Orleans | 38 Our coasts are extremely vulnerable to rising oceans | 39 And our coasts are where our economy is most productive | 40 And our coasts are where we invest our capital | 41 Climate change in the 1930s disrupted a sector in decline. Our climate change will affect our coastal growth sectors where we are investing our venture capital. Agricultural workforce (1800-1960) millions 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1800 1830 1860 1890 1920 1950 | 42 Regardless of whether we stop emissions today, or continue as we are, there will be consequences New York City (one meter rise) San Francisco (one meter rise) Facebook Google | 43 New Deal policies are not a “playbook,” they are experiences, warnings, and encouragements that should help us think about the future Past Failures Past Successes Avoid “doing more of same” Collaborative Disagreement Investment is easier than abolition Inconsistent Experimentation Poorest will be hit hardest Portfolio Mindset But the world today is not the same as the 1930s… | 44 Unlike the New Dealers, we know what is coming, and can hopefully avoid their mistakes. Our solutions need to take account of both current options and hoped-for technology | 45 I believe that we can creatively finance new technologies and work practices that will help mitigate climate change. We must remake capitalism to be greener, more profitable, and more ethical. Now Future Adaptation | 46 What would avoiding “more of the same, only different” look like today? Autonomous Cars Rethinking Urban Zoning and Transportation Mitigation | 47 The New Deal approaches to the Dust Bowl show us about that without earth, there is no mitigation Institutions Finance Emphasis on how we interact with each other Agriculture Land Use Emphasis on how we use the earth The Earth is unchanging, except for when we change it “Rain follows the plow” | 48 The New Deal approaches to the Dust Bowl show us about that without earth, there is no mitigation Institutions Land Use Emphasis on how we interact with each other Emphasis on how we use the earth | 49 Today, conversations about climate change and the future of work are largely separate Climate Change Future of Work Changing Earth Changing Production | 50 For mitigation, we need to blend conversations about climate change and the future of work* Climate Change Future of Work • Who are the interlocutors? • Who is excluded? Changing Changing Earth Production • What knowledges are ignored? Questions Experiments | 51 What questions emerge? How do they help us think about the future of work and the creation of a new moral economy? How do we move Silicon Valley? Should we be focusing on robots? Where are we THE FUTURE OF WORK AND WORKERS focusing our innovation? Why? What is green industrial policy? What is the role of governments? Supra-governments? Will sea level rise transform our economies? What are the forcing points? What are the vulnerabilities? How do refugees support green development? How do we think about dislocation? Of people, of production, of finance, of networks? Why are we talking about the United States when climate change is global? What is the right scale for thinking about the economic implications of climate change? Local? Global? Watershed? | 52 Adaptation and mitigation, as frameworks, serve as answers to different kinds of problems Approach Information Policy Adaptation Mitigation Analytic Interpretive Clear price signals Interactions we cannot decipher Reform Revolution | 53 To succeed in meeting these future challenges, we need to shift our thinking. Unlike in the 1930s, we know what is coming. We can’t stop climate change, but we can prepare. Catastrophe Possibility Paralysis Adaptation and Mitigation Fixed Flexible Short-term metrics Long-term metrics One-time ecological event On-going ecological rewriting Emergency response Redundant systems Constant world Changing world Possibility of one-shot solution No one-shot solutions, just multiple adaptations | 54 The Future of Work can and must help us address these issues. The conversations need to be brought together. We need to both mitigate and adapt if we are going to survive. Stopping climate change will be impossible at this point. We need to creatively adapt our economy to climate change, and mitigate further ecological erosion. The analogy of the 1930s is not perfect, but it helps us surface the blindspots in the current climate change debates [email protected] [email protected] @natashaiskander @louishyman | 55