Download EFFECTS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON FISHING

EFFECTS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON
FISHING ACTIVITIES AND FISHERS’ ADAPTIVE CAPACITY IN
MBITA DIVISION - HOMA BAY COUNTY, KENYA
By
ODHIAMBO TOM MBOYA
REG NO C50/CE/11313/08
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY
A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE
DEGREE OF MASTERS OF ARTS (GEOGRAPHY) IN THE
SCHOOL OF HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES OF
KENYATTA UNIVERSITY
APRIL 2013
ii
DECLARATION
This thesis is my original work and has not been presented for any degree or award in
any university
____________________________ Date__________________
ODHIAMBO TOM MBOYA
GEOGRAPHY DEPARTMENT
This thesis has been presented for examination with our approval as the university
appointed supervisors.
DR. CALVINE KAYI
Lecturer, Department of Geography
KENYATTA UNIVERSITY
Signature____________________________ Date__________________
DR. P.M. SINDA
Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography
KENYATTA UNIVERSITY
Signature____________________________ Date__________________
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DEDICATION
This study is dedicated to my best friend, my lovely wife Grace and my children Joy,
Arnold and Ammon who continue to believe in me and support me through thick and
thin.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to the Almighty God for granting me good
health throughout the period of the study.
I humbly wish to extend my most sincere gratitude and appreciation to my supervisors;
Dr. Calvine Kayi for his tireless assistance, guidance, insight, attention to detail and
personal dedication towards the completion of this work and Dr. Sinda for his extremely
valuable suggestions, constructive criticisms and input which have enabled me not only
to improve the quality of this work but also to complete it.
I wish to acknowledge the support I received from officers from Fisheries and
Meteorological Departments in Mbita District and their staff and all the fisher-folk who
voluntarily participated in the study.
I would not forget my colleagues in the masters’ class for their continued
encouragement. Thanks to Mr. Michael O. Akoko, The Mbita District Fisheries Officer
Mr. Omondi, Mr. Kevin Musyega, Mbita District Development Officer and Mr.
Mohammed Onyango for their assistance in data collection.
My heartfelt thanks go out to my family, wife Grace, daughter Joy and sons Arnold and
Ammon for their patience, support and interest in my work.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION ................................................................................................................ ii
DEDICATION ................................................................................................................... iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................. iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... v
LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... viii
LIST OF APPPENDICES .................................................................................................. ix
LIST OF ABBREVIATION ............................................................................................... x
ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... xi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 1
1.1 Background to the Problem........................................................................................... 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem .............................................................................................. 3
1.3 Research Objectives ...................................................................................................... 5
1.3.1 General Objective ...................................................................................................... 5
1.3.2 Specific Objectives .................................................................................................... 5
1.4 Research Questions ....................................................................................................... 6
1.5 Significance of the study ............................................................................................... 6
1.6 Justification of the study ............................................................................................... 7
1.7 Scope of the study ......................................................................................................... 8
1.8 Operational Definition of Significant Terms ................................................................ 8
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................ 9
2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 9
2.2 Climate Change and Variability.................................................................................... 9
2.3 Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on the Fisheries .......................................... 10
2.4 Impacts of Climate Variability on the Livelihood of Fisher folk ............................... 12
2.4.1 Changes in Natural Capital ...................................................................................... 12
2.4.2 Damage to Physical Capital and Reduced Financial Capital ................................... 13
2.4.3 Impact on Human and Social Capital ...................................................................... 14
2.6 Conceptual Framework ............................................................................................... 17
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY ..................................................................... 20
3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 20
3.2 Research Design .......................................................................................................... 20
3.3 Area of Study .............................................................................................................. 20
3.4 Types of Data .............................................................................................................. 21
3.5 Study Population ......................................................................................................... 22
3.6 Sample Frame ............................................................................................................. 23
3.7 Sample Size and Sampling Procedure ........................................................................ 23
3.8 Data Collection Techniques ........................................................................................ 25
3.8.1 Primary Data ............................................................................................................ 26
3.8.2 Secondary Data ........................................................................................................ 26
3.9 Data Processing and Analysis ..................................................................................... 27
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3.9.1 Qualitative Analysis ................................................................................................. 27
3.9.2 Quantitative Analysis ............................................................................................... 28
CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ................................................. 29
4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 29
4.2 Demographic Characteristics of the Respondents ...................................................... 29
4.3 Climatic Trends in Mbita Division between 1992-2011 ............................................. 33
4.3.1 Trend of wind speed for Mbita: 1992-2011 ............................................................. 34
4.3.2 Trend of rainfall changes for Mbita 1992-2011 ....................................................... 36
4.3.3Trend of temperature changes for Mbita 1992-2011 ................................................ 38
4.4 Perception of respondents on whether or not weather and climate variability affect ....
fisher-folk and fishing activities ................................................................................. 39
4.5. Effect of weather and climate variability on fisher folks and Fishing Duration ........ 41
4.5.1: Effect of Change in Wind Pattern on fisher folks ................................................... 42
4.5.2 Effect of Change in Rainfall Patterns on Fisher folk ............................................... 45
4.5.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature Pattern on Fisher folk ....................................... 46
4.6 Effect of Climate Variability on Fishing Duration ..................................................... 47
4.7 Effects of seasonal variability of climatic elements on fish catch in Mbita Division . 51
4.7.1 Effect of Change of Wind on Fish Catch ................................................................. 53
4.7.2 Effect of Change in Rainfall on Fish Catch ............................................................. 55
4.7.3 Effect of Change in Temperature on Fish Catch...................................................... 56
4.8 Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on the Choice of Fishing Equipment and
Techniques ................................................................................................................. 57
4.8.1 Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on the Choice of Fishing Techniques . 57
4.8.1.1 Effect of Changes in Wind on Choice of Fishing Techniques .............................. 58
4.8.1.2 Effect of Changes in Rainfall on Choice of Fishing Techniques .......................... 59
4.8.1.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature on Fishing Techniques ................................... 60
4.8.2 Effects of weather and climate variability on the Fishing equipment...................... 61
4.8.2.1 Effect of Changes in Wind on Choice of Fishing Equipment............................... 62
4.8.2.2 Effect of Changes in Rainfall on Fishing Equipment ........................................... 63
4.8.2.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature on Fishing Equipment .................................... 64
4.9 Coping and adaptive strategies of fishing community in Mbita Division .................. 65
4.10: Coping and adaptive strategies of fishing community in Mbita Division ............... 68
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMENDATIONS .. 70
5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 70
5.2. Summary of Findings ................................................................................................. 70
5.3. Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 73
5.4: Recommendations ...................................................................................................... 73
5.5: Suggestion for Further Research ................................................................................ 74
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 76
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 3.1: Nature and Types of Data Collected ................................................................ 22
Table 3.2: Fisher folk Population Sampling Procedure .................................................... 25
Table 4.1: Socio-Economic & Demographic characteristics of the respondents .............. 33
Table 4.2: Analysis of wind data from 1992 to 2011........................................................ 36
Table 4.3: Analysis of rainfall data from 1992 to 2011 .................................................... 37
Table 4.4: Analysis of temperature data from 1992 to 2011 ............................................ 39
Table 4.5: Effects of weather and Climate Variability on fisher folk ............................... 42
Table 4.6: Effects of Wind on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for Fishing ................. 45
Table 4.7: Effects of Rainfall on Number of fisher folk Going Out for Fishing .............. 46
Table 4.8: Effects of Temperature on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for Fishing ...... 47
Table 4.9: Effect of weather and Climate Variability on Fishing Duration ...................... 48
Table 4.10: Effects of seasonal weather and climate variability on fish catch ................. 53
Table 4.11: Effects of Wind on Amount of Fish Catch .................................................... 54
Table 4.12: Effects of Rainfall on Amount of Fish Catch ................................................ 56
Table 4.13: Effects of Temperature on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for Fishing .... 57
Table 4.14: Effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing .................
techniques....................................................................................................... 58
Table 4.15: Effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing
..............
equipments ..................................................................................................... 61
Table 4.16: Effects of Wind on Fishing Equipment and Techniques ............................... 63
Table 4.17: Effects of Rainfall on Fishing Equipment and Techniques ........................... 64
Table 4.18: Effects of Temperature on Fishing Equipment and Techniques .................... 65
Table 4.19: Impact of weather and climate variability on fisher folk livelihood.............. 67
Table 4.20: Coping and adaptive strategies apart from fishing ........................................ 69
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1: Conceptual Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Weather and Climate
Variability on Fishing Activities and the Fishers Coping and Adaptive
Strategies .................................................................................................. 19
Figure 3.1: Map of the Study Area ................................................................................... 21
Figure 4.1: Monthly trend of wind data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ........................................ 35
Figure 4.2: Yearly trend of wind data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ........................................... 35
Figure 4.3: Monthly trend of rainfall data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ..................................... 37
Figure 4.4: Yearly trend of rainfall data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ........................................ 37
Figure 4.5: Monthly trend of temperature data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ............................. 38
Figure 4.6: Yearly trend of temperature data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ................................ 39
Figure 4.7: Perception of the Respondents on Whether or not Weather and Climate .........
Variability and Reduction of Lake Water Levels Affect fisher folk............... 41
Figure 4.8: Fish Catch Trends in Mbita: 1997-2010 ......................................................... 52
Figure 4.9: Effect of weather and climate variability on fisher folk’s livelihood ............. 66
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LIST OF APPPENDICES
APPENDIX I: FISHER FOLK QUESTIONNAIRE ........................................................ 84
APPENDIX II: INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR OFFICIAL FROM FISHERIES ...................
DEPARTMENT ....................................................................................... 90
APPENDIX III: INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR OFFICIAL FROM METEOROLOGICAL
DEPARTMENT ..................................................................................... 92
APPENDIX IV: RESEARCH BUDGET ......................................................................... 93
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LIST OF ABBREVIATION
ENSO
: El Nino Southern Oscillation
FAO
: Food and Agriculture Organization
ICIPE
: International Centre for Insect Physiology and Ecology
IPCC
: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ISCC
: International Symposium on Climate Change
SEDAWOG
: Socio-Economic Data Working Group of the Lake Victoria Fisheries
Research Project
UNESCO
: United Nation Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
WHO
: World Health Organization
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ABSTRACT
Fisher-folk depend for a major part of their livelihood on natural resources whose
distribution and productivity are known to be influenced by climate dynamics. Research
has shown that small-scale fisher-folk in the developing countries are more vulnerable
to climate variability due to their high reliance on fisheries and poor adaptive capacity.
However most studies so far have concentrated on climate-driven changes in ocean
productivity and its impact on fish distribution and production particularly in relation to
oceanic regime changes of large-scale industrial fisheries and have not considered
effects on the fishing activities and the fishers coping and adaptive strategies, especially
in freshwater systems such as in Lake Victoria. It is against this background that the
study sought to investigate the effects of weather and climate variability on the fishing
activities and the fishers coping and adaptive strategies in Mbita Division, Homa bay
County, Kenya. The study was guided by the premise that weather and climate
variability can change the natural, physical and financial capital of the small-scale
fisher-folk. It can also have an impact on human and social capital. The main objectives
of the study were to find out the effects of weather and climate variability; specifically
changes in temperature, rainfall and wind on the fisher-folk and the fishing duration, to
investigate the effects of the seasonal variability of climatic elements on the fish catch,
to assess the effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing
techniques and equipment being utilized by fisher-folk and to establish the coping and
adaptive strategies of the fishing community in Mbita Division. To realize the purpose
of the study, a descriptive survey design was adopted. The required data was collected
from 343 randomly selected fisher folk from four locations in Mbita division, 1 official
from the Fisheries Department and 1 official from Meteorological Department who
were purposively sampled to provide information on various issues on weather and
climate variability, fishing and other economic activities. Secondary data collection was
done through review of documented information such as topographical maps,
documents on weather and climate variability, and fishing from Fisheries and
Meteorological departments, while primary data was collected through observations and
face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire. The data generated was edited,
coded and entered into Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Data analysis
was done using qualitative methods such as content analysis and quantitative analysis
using frequencies, percentages and means and the summary presented using tables and
graphs. The study established that climate variability particularly strong winds and
storms, drought and high temperatures have an impact on fishing activities such as
reduction in fish catch, long duration of fishing, loss of fishing gear, change in fishing
techniques, change in coping strategies, effect on health of fisher folk and even loss of
life. The study therefore concludes that weather and climate variability affects fishing
activities in Mbita Division. Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that
the government and other stakeholders should help enhance resilience of fishing
communities by supporting existing adaptive livelihood strategies and management
institutions that are designed to support adaptation to climate change and variability.
The fisher folk should invest in improved vessel/stability and safety, harness
opportunities brought about by climate change and diversify their livelihood activities.
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1
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Problem
Fisher-folk depend for a major part of their livelihood on natural resources
whose distribution and productivity are known to be influenced by climate
dynamics (Allison, Adger, Badjeck, Brown, Conway and Dulvy, 2005).
According to Abubakar, Tahir and Olisa (2009), climate is now one of the
major phenomena threatening lives and humanity in general since the
beginning of industrial revolution. Perry, Ommer, Allison, Badjeck, Barange
and Hamilton (2009) points out that the anthropogenic climate variability is
already affecting aquatic ecosystems and the human societies that depend on
them.
It is an undisputed fact that the impacts of climate variability can be
particularly severe in societies where people are highly dependent on natural
resources for their livelihood and also experience the impacts of extreme
climate events such as floods, drought and other sources of stress to their
livelihoods such as disease, conflict and increased population pressure
(Goulden, 2005). According to Allison, Perry, Badjeck, Adger, Brown and
Conway (2009), small-scale fisher folk in the developing countries are more
vulnerable to climate variability due to their high reliance on fisheries and poor
adaptive capacity. However most studies so far have concentrated on climatedriven changes in ocean productivity and its impact on fish distribution and
production particularly in relation to oceanic regime changes of large-scale
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industrial fisheries (Klyastorin, 2001) and have not considered effects of
weather and climate variability especially changes in temperature, rainfall and
wind on the fishing activities and the coping and adaptive strategies of the
fisher folk communities, especially in freshwater systems (Badjeck, Menjo,
Wolff and Lange, 2009) such as in Lake Victoria.
The communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa mainly derive their
livelihoods from the Lake. Most of the fisher folk have no alternative
occupation apart from fishing (Omwega, 2000). According to UNESCO
(2008), about 3 million people earn their living directly or indirectly from the
fishing industry in Lake Victoria. However, the lake is highly vulnerable to
weather and climate variability especially due to its shallowness, limited river
inflow, demand on outflow and large surface area relative to its volume
(Crandall, 2009). The impacts on the livelihoods activities of communities
around it are likely to be severe due to extreme climate events such as floods
and drought as well as the high population density. Lake Victoria in the recent
past has visibly changed in its expanse, with its water level reducing every
season despite the increased El-nino effect of 1997 and 2009 in East Africa
(Namwebe, 2009).
According to Minawaka, Sonye, Dida, Futami and Kanoke (2008), the water
level of Lake Victoria has fallen more than 1.5 metres since 1998 revealing a
narrow strip of land along its shore. This is mainly attributed to the impacts of
weather and climate variability. One of the results has been increasingly
dwindling fish catch. According to Hecky, Mugidde, Ramlal, Talbot and Kling
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(2010), Lake Victoria has endured multiple stresses over the past century
including population growth, increased cultivation of land, meteorological
variability, resource extraction, intensive fishing, introduction of exotic species
and more recently global warming. There are compelling reasons both
economic and nutritional for carrying out a research on the effect of weather
and climate variability on fishing around Lake Victoria and particularly so
since research have shown that most fisher folk have no alternative occupation
apart from fishing (Omwega, 2000).
This study examined the effects of weather and climate variability, specifically,
changes in temperature, rainfall and wind pattern on fishing activities and
coping and adaptive strategies of the fisher folk in Mbita Division of Lake
Victoria region, Homa-Bay County.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
According to Badjeck, Allison, Halls and Dulvy (2009), there is increasing
concern over the consequences of global warming for food security and
livelihoods of the world’s 36 million fisher folk and nearly 1.5 billion
consumers who rely on fish for more than 20% of their dietary animal protein.
With mounting evidence of the impacts of climate variability and change on
aquatic ecosystems, the resulting impacts on fisheries livelihoods are likely to
be significant, but remain a neglected area in climate adaptation policy. Most
research on climate variability and fisheries have however in the past focused
on documenting trends and fluctuations in fish abundance and distribution,
particularly in relation to oceanic regime changes and the major pelagic fish
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stocks of upwelling zones that are the target of large-scale industrial fisheries
(Klyastorin, 2001).
Although there are a number of studies that have investigated the vulnerability
and adaptive capacity of the fisheries dependent community to climate change,
there has been little directed analysis at the local scale on how weather and
climate variability is affecting the lives and livelihoods of the tropical majority
of small-scale fisher folk, who make up more than 90% of the world’s fishers
and fish trade (Badjeck et al. 2009). Yet according to Allison (2009), climate
variability adversely affects societies whose people are highly dependent on
natural resources for their livelihood such as fishing, crop farming, animal
husbandry, horticulture and forestry among others. Lake Victoria provides the
ideal circumstances against which to study the effects of weather and climate
variability on the fishing activities of the small-scale fisher folk. The lake’s
shallowness, limited river inflow, demands on outflow, and large surface area
relative to its volume make it highly vulnerable to climate variability (Crandall,
2009). Changes in wind patterns, occurrence of severe storms, changes in
temperature and reduction of the lake level as a result of weather and climate
variability are likely to impact on fish production, species composition,
distribution, safety and efficiency of fishing. These would also have significant
effects on the livelihood activities of the neighbouring fishing community. In
Mbita Division where majority of the fisher folk are small scale, weather and
climate variability especially changes in temperature, rainfall and wind patterns
make the fisher folk more vulnerable because of heavy reliance in fisheries and
poor adaptive capabilities. It is against this backdrop that this study sought to
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examine the role played by weather and climate variability, specifically
changes in temperature, rainfall and wind on fishing activities and the coping
and adaptive strategies of the fisher folk in Mbita Division of Homa bay
County.
1.3 Research Objectives
1.3.1 General Objective
The general objective of this study was to determine the effects of weather and
climate variability on fishing and livelihood activities in Mbita Division, Homa
bay County. The study specifically examined how changes in temperature,
rainfall and wind impact on the fisher folk, fish catch, fishing facilities and
choice of fishing techniques. It also examined the alternative livelihood
activities of the fisher folk.
1.3.2 Specific Objectives
The study sought to address the following objectives:
i.
To find out the effects of weather and climate variability; specifically
changes in temperature, rainfall and wind on the fisher-folk and fishing
duration in Mbita Division.
ii.
To investigate the effects of the seasonal variability of climatic
elements on the fish catch in Mbita Division.
iii.
To assess the effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of
fishing techniques and equipment being utilized by fisher-folk in Mbita
Division.
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iv.
To establish the coping and adaptive strategies of the fishing
community in Mbita Division.
1.4 Research Questions
The following research questions were addressed in this study:
(i) What are the effects of weather and climate variability, specifically changes
in temperature, rainfall and wind on fisher-folk and fishing duration in
Mbita Division?
(ii) What is the effect of seasonal variation of weather on the fish catch in
Mbita Division?
(iii) Does the effects of weather and climate variability influence the choice of
fishing techniques and equipment utilized by fisher folk in Mbita
Division?
(iv) What are the coping and adaptive strategies of the fishing community in
Mbita Division?
1.5 Significance of the study
The study is significant in that, it will contribute to the understanding of the
impact of weather and climate variability on the livelihood of the small scale
fishing communities. It has revealed the risks posed to fisher-folk by the
impact of weather and climate variability that need to be addressed by the
government, policy makers, and the wider society and recommended the need
to come up with alternative sources of livelihood. The mechanisms by which
individuals and societies respond to weather and climate variability can also
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provide valuable insights into how communities affected in the future might
adapt and cope to the impacts of weather and climate variability.
Additionally, the study contributes to the existing empirical body of knowledge
on the impact of weather and climate variability on the livelihood of peasants.
Responding to climate change requires a multi-level, interdisciplinary and
integrated response as well as public participation. Knowledge of how fisherfolk perceive and understand the impact of weather and climate variability on
their livelihood is important as an indication of the potential for change in
behaviour to address the problem of climate change and potentials for
mitigation and adaptation strategies.
1.6 Justification of the study
Mbita Division of Homa bay County is predominantly occupied by small scale
fishing community. The area is not only characterized by rocky surface but
also generally dry thus making it not very conducive for agricultural practices
such as crop farming and cattle keeping.
Fishing remains the most
predominant economic activity. However, the small scale fisher-folk are more
vulnerable to climate variability due to their poor adaptive capacity (Allison,
2009). The study on the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing
activities and the coping and adaptive strategies of the fishing community in
Mbita Division was a response to the concern on how the small scale fisherfolk are affected by weather and climate variability and how they are coping.
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1.7 Scope of the study
This study covered Mbita Division, in Homa bay County where fishing is the
main economic activity and source of livelihood. Although there are other
economic activities such as agriculture affected by weather and climate
variability, this study focused only on fishing. As Allison, et al. (2009) points
out that small-scale fisher-folk in the developing countries are more vulnerable
to climate variability due to their high reliance on fisheries and poor adaptive
capacity. The study considered only the effects of three elements of climate,
that is temperature, rainfall and wind as representative of other elements.
Although the focus was on all fisher folk within the division, the study did not
cover all the fisher folk due to their large number, thus sampling procedures
were employed. This was necessary for an in-depth analysis of the effects of
weather and climate variability on the fishing and livelihood activities. In
considering secondary data on weather conditions, number of fisher folk going
for fishing, amount of fish catch and the fishing equipment and techniques, the
study considered the period between 1992 to 2011.
1.8 Operational Definition of Significant Terms
Climate Variability: Changes in Temperature, Wind and Rainfall between
1992 to 2011
Livelihood Activities: The capabilities, assets and activities required for
means of living.
Fisher folk: Those who engage and benefit directly from fishing. (Those who
fish as an occupation process and sell fish).
Fishing Activities: Activities that involve going after fish and selling.
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CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
This chapter gives a summary of relevant literature used to conceptualize the
research theme. The review first gives an over-view of climate change and
climate variability, then proceeds to present the impacts of weather and
climate variability on fisheries, related studies, and finally the conceptual
framework.
2.2 Climate Change and Variability
Climate is the average weather experienced over a long period. This includes
weather elements such as temperature, wind, humidity, and air pressure and
rainfall patterns. Climate change was defined by Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) Fourth Assessment Report as “change in the
state of the climate that can be identified (such as by using statistical test) by
changes in mean and/or variability of its properties, and that persists for an
extended period typically decades or longer.” Climate includes patterns of
temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind and seasons. "Climate change"
affects more than just a change in the weather; it refers to seasonal changes
over a long period of time (IPCC, 2007). These climate patterns play a
fundamental role in shaping natural ecosystems, and the human economies and
cultures that depend on them. Human activities too like the emission of green
house gases have resulted into the Earth getting warmed by 0.74°C over the
last hundred years. Around 0.4°C of this warming has occurred since the 1970s
(WHO, 2010). Climate is now one of the major phenomena threatening lives
10
and humanity in general since the beginning of industrial revolution
(Abubakar, Tahir and Olisa, 2009).
Climate variability goes hand in hand with climate change. The term climate
variability or climatic variability denotes the natural characteristic of climate
that manifests itself within the changes of climate with regard to time. The
degree of climate variability is often described by the dissimilarity between
long-term statistics of the meteorological elements that are calculated for
different periods. This also means that the measure of climatic variability is
also the same as the measure of climatic change. On the other hand, climate
change has a much distinct meaning compared to climate variability. It is the
change within the statistical distribution of the weather over certain periods of
time. This can range from centuries, decades or even millions of years (IPCC,
2007).
2.3 Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on the Fisheries
Climate variability can impact fisheries through multiple ways. Changes in
water temperature, precipitation, aquatic variables such as wind velocity, wave
action and rise in water level, can bring about significant ecological and
biological changes to marine and freshwater ecosystems and the resultant fish
population (Cheung, Lam, Sarmiento, Kearney, Watson and Pauly, 2009;
Brander, 2009; Drinkewater, Bearugrand, Kaeriyama, Kim, Ottersen and Perry,
2009), directly impacting on people whose livelihoods depend on those
ecosystems. Extreme weather events may also disrupt fishing operations and
land-based infrastructure (Westlund, Poulain, Bage, and van Anrooy , 2007)
11
while fluctuations of fishery production and other natural resources can have
an impact on livelihoods strategies and outcomes of fishing communities
(Coulthard, 2008; Iwasaki, Razafindrabe and Shaw, 2009). Indirect impacts
arising from adaptive strategies pursued by different groups may also be
significant and compound the effects of direct climate impacts on fish
production and dependent livelihoods. For example, according to Badjeck et al.
(2009), changing patterns of precipitation and increasing frequency of extreme
flooding events in river basins may prompt adaptive strategies by the
agriculture sector that focus upon the construction of more flood control,
drainage and irrigation schemes. These structures are likely, to further
exacerbate the direct adverse impacts of climate variability on fisheries.
Studies suggest that fish production can be 50% lower inside flood control
schemes compared to outside largely due to diminished recruitment of highvalue migratory whitefish species (Halls, Hoggarth and Debnath, 1998; and
Halls, Payne, Alam and Barman, 2008). In Malawi’s Lake Chilwa, it is the
combination of a series of droughts and conversion of fringing wetlands for
rice cultivation that are putting severe pressures on water resources and
fisheries (Allison et al. 2007). The “direct” effect of climate variability on
hydrological regimes and ecosystems may therefore be enhanced in these
situations. The current study specifically looked at effects of changes in
temperature, rainfall and wind on the fishing and livelihood activities of small
scale fisher-folk in Mbita Division and their adaptive strategies with a view to
suggest sustainable response methods to the threat of weather and climate
variability by the community.
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Faced with declining yields, income and food security, fishers may seek
alternative resources. For example, in West Africa, when coastal fisheries
resources are scarce, fisher folk adopt alternative livelihood strategies
including hunting for bushmeat (Brashares, Arcese, Sam, Coppolillo, Sinclair
and Balmford, 2004). Despite variability in climate and vulnerability of the
fisher-folk community in Mbita Division, no systematic studies have been
carried out to determine the impact of weather and climate variability on their
fishing activities and how they are coping. This study therefore sought to
establish the impact of weather and climate variability on the fishing activities
of the fisher-folk and the coping and adaptive strategies of the fishing
community in Mbita Division, Homa bay County, Kenya.
2.4 Impacts of Climate Variability on the Livelihood of Fisher folk
2.4.1 Changes in Natural Capital
Changes in the availability of fish products (natural capital) can affect total
revenues and harvesting costs (net revenues), resulting in greater costs in
managing and accessing natural capital (Badjeck et al. 2009). Reduction of net
revenue which arises from decline in stock abundance and subsequently
catches is commonly cited as a consequence of climate variability and change
(Mahon, 2002; Lum, 2002; Knapp, Livingston and Tyler, 1998). According to
Trotman, Gordon, Hutchinson, Singh and McRae-smith (2009), reductions in
coral cover in Caribbean basin as a result of climate variability, is predicted to
diminish annual fish production by between 30-40% by 2015, equivalent to a
net revenue loss of between US$95 million and USD$140 million for more
13
than 100,000 fishers. Other natural resources upon which fishing communities
depend may also be impacted by weather and climate variability. Bridges
(2009) observes that sea level rise and extreme events like storm surges can
lower the availability and quality of freshwater sources to fishing communities
in addition to disrupting fishing operations.
The above studies have mostly focused on the impact of climate variability on
large scale ocean driven fishing productivity. The current study looked at the
impact of weather and climate variability on small-scale fish production of the
fisher-folk community in Mbita Division, the focus being on the variability of
the fish catch in the face of changes in temperature, rainfall and wind.
2.4.2 Damage to Physical Capital and Reduced Financial Capital
Climate variability through sea-level rise, storm and flood frequency,
according to Badjeck et al. (2009), can impact on the physical capital of
households or of entire communities, leading not only to decreased harvesting
capacity but also to the disruption of public infrastructure and services that
support livelihoods. More specifically, storm and severe weather events can
destroy or severely damage productive assets and infrastructure such as landing
sites, boats and fishing gear (Jallow, Toure, Barrow and Matheiu, 1999).
Aiken, Bacon and Mooyoung (1992), note that during Hurricane Gilbert in
1988, the Jamaican fisher-folk lost 90% of their fishing traps resulting in loss
of revenue, high cost of repairs, as well as the ability of the fisher folk
resuming their fishing activities promptly. The current study was designed to
14
find out whether the small-scale fisher-folk in Mbita division have suffered
similar, additional or different loses due to weather and climate variability
given their vulnerability.
2.4.3 Impact on Human and Social Capital
Climate variability and change through rise in water levels, storm and flood
frequency can impact on the human and social capital of a community. Badjeck
et al. (2009) points out that different dimension of human capital, ranging from
safety-at-sea to food security are also affected by climate variability. The loss
of lives, for example, can be the most dramatic impact of extreme climatic
events on human capital, affecting not only surviving household members but
also potentially disrupting economic and social activities. Safety at sea and
injuries are often associated with natural disasters linked to climatic stresses
such as floods and hurricanes, reducing the physical capabilities of fisher folk
to pursue their livelihoods. Additionally, loss of revenues can be the result of
closure or reduction of fisheries activities during weather anomalies (Lum,
2002; Siung-Chang and Lum 2001; and Nagy, Bidegain, Caffera, Blixen,
Ferrari, and Lagomarsino, 2006).
In terms of health effects, it has been shown that the El Nino cycle in certain
areas is associated with changes in the risk of diseases transmitted by
mosquitoes, such as malaria and dengue (Kovats, Bouma, Shakoor, Worrall
and Haines, 2003). The risk of malaria is highly sensitive to El Nino in South
America, Central Asia and Africa, areas where the majority of small-scale
15
fisher folk are located (Allison et al. 2009). Changes in food availability and in
food affordability occasioned by climatic disturbances also add an additional
health burden to households and communities. In a scenario of decreased
catches due to climate variability events, the risk of malnutrition and undernutrition for communities highly dependent on fish for a source of protein
(Ogutu-Ohwayo, Heckey, Cohen and Kufman, 1997), combined with changes
in diet are some possible effects. Reductions in fishery-dependent incomes can
also reduce the ability to purchase store-bought food during periods of natural
resource scarcity (Callaway, Earmer, Edwarden, Jack, Marcy and Olrun, 1998).
Climate variability according to Badjeck et al. (2009) can also alter the local
institutions that form the basis of resource management, specifically property
rights. At the local scale, it could be argued that changes in abundance, patterns
and displacement of fisheries stock could also lead to conflicts over property
rights and resource access. For instance the Peruvian “scallop booms” in Pisco
triggered a flow of opportunistic migrants from all over the country wanting to
share the bonanza of the El Nino event (Meltzoff, Lemons, Asfour, GuardiaMontonya and Gonzales, 2005). In Southern Africa, increasing frequencies of
droughts are leading to greater variability in lake levels and river flows,
affecting lakeshore and river floodplain livelihoods that incorporate fishing
(Conway, Allison, Felstead and Goulden, 2005).
While borrowing from above studies, the current study narrowed down only on
direct impacts such as loss of life, sickness due to injuries, and loss of fishing
16
gear and duration of fishing in order to establish immediate effects that may
lead to long term impacts such as conflict and change in diet.
Climate variability can lead to declining yield in fishery resources, income and
food security. In West Africa, when the coastal fishery resources are scarce,
the fisher folk adapt to various alternative livelihood strategies such as hunting
for bush meat (Brashares, 2004). While borrowing from the above study, the
current study narrowed down on the adaptive and coping strategies of the fresh
water fisher folk in Mbita Division of Homa Bay County.
2.5 Studies on the Impact of Climate Variability on the Fishing Activities
In a study on the impact of climate variability on the Tuna economy of
Seychelles, Robinson, Guillotrean, Jimenez-Toribio, Lantz, Dorizo, Gerry, and
Marsac (2009), noted that the Tuna industry experienced a fluctuated catch of
58%, 34% and 60% respectively in 1998 the year of a strong warming event in
the western Indian Ocean. The Patterns in Tuna Purse Seine fishing were
therefore substantially modified by the strong climate oscillations. While the
above study focused on the impact of climate variability on Tuna industry,
which is a large scale industry within the oceanic regime, the current study
focused on the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing activities
and how this affects the lives and livelihoods of the small-scale fisher folk, in
Mbita Division of Lake Victoria region in Kenya.
A study by Sun (2006) on the effects of El Nino on the Mackerel purse-seine
fishery harvests in Taiwan also revealed that the landings of mackerel fell by
17
nearly 50% following the 1997/1998 El Nino event which resulted to sea
surface temperatures changes. This study focused on the El Nino phenomenon
as an aspect of climate change, however, the current study specifically
narrowed on the effects of changes in temperature, rainfall and wind pattern on
fishing and their effects on the livelihood activities of fisher folk in Mbita
Division of Lake Victoria region in Kenya.
In a study on the land use and climate change effects on livelihood, sediment
and carbon loading in the Lake Tanganyika region, Majaliwa (2009) found out
that the livelihood of the people in the Lake Tanganyika basin of Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC) have changed significantly due to demographic
pressure, poor land management and climate change and/or variability. While
borrowing from this study, the current study narrowed down to the effects of
weather and climate variability on fishing and fisheries resources among the
fisher folk in Mbita Division of Lake Victoria Region, Kenya.
2.6 Conceptual Framework
The basic relationship explored in this study was the effect of weather and
climate variability on fishing activities and the fishers coping and adaptive
strategies in Mbita Division of Lake Victoria region, Kenya. Climate
variability manifests through direct and indirect pathways whose importance
varies depending on the type of ecosystem and fishery. In Inland fishery, for
example, where the majority of fishers are small scale, weather and climate
variability impact through ways such as changes in rainfall pattern, occurrence
of storms, changes in wind pattern, changes in temperature, changes in lake
18
levels, increased flooding event, and drought among others (Badjeck, et al.,
2009). These changes have effects on the production ecology, fishing
operations, safety and efficiency of fishing infrastructure (Figure 2.1). These
effects impact on fish species composition, production, and yield, risk of health
and life of fisher folk, and loss and damage to livelihood assets. Therefore, the
fisher folk will have to seek adaptation and mitigation strategies in order to
sustain their livelihood.
19
Figure 2.1: Conceptual Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on Fishing Activities and the
Fishers’ Coping and Adaptive Strategies
IMPACTS
Changes in Lake
levels
Changes in
production ecology
EFFECTS
Species
composition,
production and
yield
Changes in fishing
operations
Impact on
Livelihood
strategies,
adaptation and
mitigation
Safety and
efficiency of fishing
infrastructure
Risk of health and
life
Loss/damage to
livelihood assets
CLIMATE
VARIABILITY
Changes in rainfall
amounts/patterns
Temperature changes
Evaporation
Source: Adapted and Modified from Badjeck, et al. (2009)
COPING STRATEGIES
Sustainable coping and adaptive
strategies
 Fish farming
 Support of existing adaptive
livelihood strategies
 Investment in improved
fishing vessels
19
Wind pattern
changes
Storm severity
Storm frequency
Drought
PATHWAYS
20
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
In this chapter, the methods that were used to collect and analyze data are
discussed. The major sections include the research design, types of data,
sampling methods, methods of data collection, data processing and analysis.
3.2 Research Design
The research design that was adopted in this study was descriptive survey.
Descriptive surveys are designed to obtain pertinent and precise information
concerning the current status of phenomena and whenever possible to draw
valid general conclusions from the facts. It seeks to identify and describe
phenomena (Lokesh, 1984). Survey also aims at obtaining information which
can be analyzed, patterns extracted and comparisons made (Bell, 1993), hence
its choice for this study.
3.3 Area of Study
This study was carried out in Mbita Division of Homa bay County, Kenya
among the fisher folk. Mbita Division was chosen because it is one of the
areas in the county where the main source of livelihood is fishing and therefore
any changes in the lake occasioned by weather and climate variability are
likely to have an impact on the fisher folk’s livelihood. Figure 3.1 shows the
location of the study area. According to the 2009 population and housing
census, Mbita Division has a total population of 62,974 and a density of 296
21
persons per square kilometre. The main economic activities in the division are
fishing and agriculture.
Figure 3.1: Map of the Study Area
Source: Suba District 2004-2008 Development Plan
3.4 Types of Data
This study made use of both secondary and primary types of data. Secondary
data was got from documentary sources, while the primary data was collected
from fieldwork. These data (documentary and field) were used to examine the
effects of weather and climate variability on fishing activities and the coping
and adaptive strategies of the fishing community of Mbita Division. Table 3.1
22
describes the type of data and the research variables employed and their
methods of analysis.
Table 3.1: Nature and Types of Data Collected
Data collected
Weather and
Climate variability
Nature of
data
Primary
and
secondary
Effects of weather Primary
and climate
variability on
fisher folk and
fishing duration
Effects of seasonal Primary
variability of
weather on fish
catch
Effects of climate
variability on
choice of fishing
techniques
Primary
and
secondary
Coping and
adaptive strategies
Primary
Source: Field Work
Variables used
Method of analysis
Average changes in
temperature, rainfall and
wind between 1992 to
2011
Responses based on
structured questionnaires
Quantitative using
means/averages from
the recorded
measurements
Quantitative based on
questionnaires,
informal discussions
and observations.
Average changes in
temperature, rainfall and
wind during different
seasons and amount of
fish catch during the
different seasons (between
1992 to 2011)
Average changes in
temperature, rainfall and
wind and effects on choice
of fishing technique or
gear
Quantitative using
percentage, averages
based on the recorded
measurements of
weather elements and
amount of fish catch
Different sources of
livelihood apart from
fishing activities (farming,
business, boat repairing,
boda boda operator and
grazing)
Quantitative based on
percentage changes
in techniques and
qualitative analysis
based on the
explanation on
reasons for the
changes from
discussions and
interview guide
Quantitative using
percentage and
qualitative analysis
of questionnaire,
interviews, informal
discussions,
observations
23
3.5 Study Population
The target population was fisher folk in Mbita Division. More information on
data on weather changes, fish landing and alternative livelihood was sought
from key informants including officials from the Fisheries and Meteorological
Departments.
3.6 Sample Frame
The respondents comprised fisher folk from Mbita Division and officials from
Fisheries and Meteorological Departments. The fisher folk were drawn from
the four locations which make up Mbita Division. These are Rusinga East,
Rusinga West, Gembe East and Gembe West. A spatial sampling frame
covering all the locations was preferred so that the samples are representative
of the full range of location variability.
3.7 Sample Size and Sampling Procedure
A sample size is part of the target population with similar characteristics under
study and which is procedurally selected to represent it. Sampling techniques
describe the strategies which are used to obtain respondents from the target
population (Oso and Onen, 2005). There are 3617 registered fisher folks in
Mbita Division with a population size of 4423 spread across Rusinga East,
Rusinga West, Gembe East and Gembe West locations. Thus the targeted
population was 3617(Records from Mbita District Fisheries Office). The
sample size was calculated based on Fisher et al. (2007) as shown below.
24
According to Fisher et al. (2007), at 95% confidence level and 50% target
population assumed to have characteristics of interest with a Z-statistic of 1.96,
sample size was calculated using the formula:
n= N
1+Np2
Where n= desired sample size
N=population sample
p=0.05
n=
3617
1+3617(0.052) = 360
Therefore, 360 respondents were interviewed for the information intended for
this study. A spatial sampling frame was preferred so that the samples are
representative of the full range of location variability. In selecting samples
from each location, the respective sample sizes were done using proportional
allocation procedure, where the larger the number of fisher folk from the
sampled location (Table 3.2), the larger the sample proportion for that location
(Ott and Larson, 1992). Systematic random sampling was used to pick the
fisher folk. A list of registered fisher folk in Mbita Division was obtained from
the Fisheries Department. Sampling involved taking every 10th name on the list
from each location, the starting point was selected randomly. Random
sampling removes biasness on the researcher and thus provides a good
representation of the target population. It also enables hypotheses to be
scientifically tested. Officials from Fisheries and Meteorological Departments
25
were purposefully selected to provide pertinent information related to the
research from their areas of specialization.
Table 3.2: Fisher folk Population Sampling Procedure
Location
Population
Percentage
Weight
Rusinga East
835
23.1
Sample Size
Rusinga West
983
27.2
98
Gembe East
506
14.0
50
Gembe West
1293
35.7
129
Total
3617
100
360
83
Source: Records from Mbita District Fisheries Office
However, out of a total of 360 questionnaires sent, 343 were returned for
analysis yielding a response rate of 92.3%. This response rate was achieved as
a result of proper co-ordination with the field assistants, the fisher folk and
sensitizing the community on the importance and purpose of the study.
3.8 Data Collection Techniques
Information was collected from documented sources for secondary data, and
fieldwork for primary data. Documentary sources included Topographical
maps, documents on climate variability from Meteorological Department,
number of fishers and amount of fish catch and fishing equipment and
techniques from Fisheries Department. Fieldwork data was obtained from
observation and respondents who included fisher folk and officials of the
Fisheries and Meteorological Departments.
26
3.8.1 Primary Data
Primary data was collected using several procedures. Observations were made
on various economic activities carried out in the area and information recorded
in a record sheet. A structured questionnaire was self administered to the fisher
folk; both closed-ended and open-ended questions were asked (appendix x).
The closed ended questions were used to solicit information from respondents
on matters such as socio-economic characteristic, economic activities, seasonal
variations on fish catch, fishing duration, fishing techniques and equipment.
Open ended questions were used to capture details on opinions such as fisher
folk assessment of the effect of weather and climate variability and the
description of livelihood changes. Before the final version of the questionnaire
was administered, a pilot survey was conducted. This was done in order to pretest the questionnaire to ensure that the questions included are clear,
understandable and would yield relevant information. Following the pilot
study, various changes were made to add or and omit information from the
questionnaires. Interview guides were used to gather information from one
official from Fisheries and one official from Meteorological Departments. The
interview guides assisted in gathering data on various issues such as variability
of weather elements, fishing and other economic activities.
3.8.2 Secondary Data
Secondary sources included documents from Meteorological and Fisheries
Departments in Mbita Division. These included data on weather patterns
27
(temperature, wind and rainfall) over the past 20 years (1992-2011), amount of
fish catch, fishing techniques and equipment and economic activities in the
area.
3.9 Data Processing and Analysis
Data obtained from various sources were processed before analysis. The data
were edited, coded and entered for analysis in the Statistical Package for Social
Sciences (SPSS). Summary tables were then prepared to facilitate recording
and further analysis.
3.9.1 Qualitative Analysis
Qualitative data was analyzed using qualitative analysis methods. Qualitative
analysis has a strong emphasis on describing the world as different observers
perceive it (Dey, 1993). Paton (1990), points out that there is no one kind of
qualitative data analysis, but rather a variety of approaches related to the
different perspectives and purposes of researchers. This study used content
analysis approach as one of the qualitative methods. This helped in deriving
useful detailed information from secondary sources and interview schedules.
The data was classified into different categories to lay the conceptual
foundation for analysis. These classifications were guided by research
objectives and links between the data were identified through key patterns that
emerged.
28
3.9.2 Quantitative Analysis
Data obtained through the questionnaire were analyzed using quantitative
methods. The data from the questionnaire were subjected to computation of
simple statistics such as frequencies, totals, percentages, tabulations and crosstabulations and presented in form of tables, graphs and charts.
29
CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
4.1 Introduction
In this chapter the results of the present investigation are presented and
discussed. The chapter is divided into subsections where general characteristics
of the respondents such as age, gender and level of education are analyzed. The
data is also analyzed around key objectives; effects of weather and climate
variability, specifically changes
in temperature, rainfall and wind on fisher folk in Mbita Division, effects of
seasonal variation of weather on the fish catch, effect of weather and climate
variability on the choice of fishing techniques utilized by fisher folk and are the
alternative sources of livelihood activities in Mbita Division.
4.2 Demographic Characteristics of the Respondents
The demographic characteristics of interest in this study included, gender, age,
marital status, education, source of income, income per month and the number
of people living in the household. The studies found out that majority of the
respondents 94.8% were male as compared to 5.2% who were female. Lwenya,
Mbiligi, Luomba and Yongo (2009) found out that in Kenya an average of 2.2
male and 1.2 female per household are involved in fisheries activities along the
beaches of Lake Victoria which complements the findings of this study. The
fisheries of Lake Victoria have a clear division of labour. The men catch the
fish while women dominate post-harvest activities such as fish processing and
30
trade. Males are also dominantly employed as boat crew and fish factory agents
and transporters of fish.
An analysis by age revealed that the majority 50.2% of the respondents were
aged between 21-30 years. Thirty three percent were aged between 31-40
years, 9.3% of the respondents were below 21 years of age, 6.1% were between
41-50 years old while only 1.2% were above 51 years old. This implies that
majority of the fisher folks are in the age bracket of 21-40 years. This age
group is generally the most economically productive since they have the
energy to undertake tedious activities like fishing and are responsible for taking
care of the young and old age groups. These findings are similar to those of
Lwenya et al. (2009) whose findings showed that the average age of fishers in
Kenya was 36.0 years for men and 35.6 years for female while crew members
are relatively young (about 80% being less than 35 years old) and most were
school dropouts entering the fishing activity for the first time. Similarly a
survey conducted by SEDAWOG II (1999) also indicated that fishers were
dominantly male and most of them were in the age range of 21 to 45 years.
There was a marked difference in education status of the respondents as most
of the respondents (74.4%) had attained primary education, 23.0% attained
secondary education, and another 0.6% had tertiary/middle college education
while 2.0% reportedly had no formal education. This is similar to Lwenya et
al. (2009) findings that both men and women in each country (Kenya, Uganda
and Tanzania) tended to be poorly-educated, with a high proportion being
primary school drop outs, especially amongst women. SEDAWOG II (1999)
31
indicates that two-thirds of fishers in Lake Victoria have at most primary level
of education. The lack of education limits their chances of finding alternative
employment outside fishing and poorly educated males are more likely to be
employed as mere crew members.
Regarding the marital status of the respondents, majority (79.3%) were
married, 18.7% single, while 1.8% widowed and only 0.3% divorced. Lwenya,
et al. (2009) showed that most fisheries stakeholders were either in
monogamous or polygamous marriages. A considerable proportion (26%) of
households were headed by women as the open-access fisheries on the lake
enable widowed women, as well as unemployed youth make a living from it.
This was evident by 25% of widows who were not permanent residents at the
beach, while 19% of married women were not with their spouses and therefore
headed their households single-handedly for most of the year.
Manual work was the main source of income besides fishing as demonstrated
by most of the respondents (58.6%), followed by agriculture (30.9%), then
handout (7.0%), while 0.6% engage in net mending besides fishing. Out of the
fisher folk who have a source of income, 60.6% earn below 5,000 shillings a
month while 38.5% earn above 5,000 shillings. The findings complement a
survey conducted by SEDAWOG II (1999) which noted that the average boat
owner earned in the range of US $ 65 per month in Lake Victoria Kenya; and
in a good week, fisher folk earned approximately Ksh. 7,750, while in a bad
week they earned Ksh. 1,822 a week (Omwega, 2000). Concerning household
size, majority (71.1%) of the respondents live with less than 5 people in their
32
houses, 23.9% live with between 5-10 people in the household while 1.5% of
the respondents live with more than 10 people in the same household. These
findings concurs with those of SEDAWOG II (1999) which showed that
majority of fishers in Lake Victoria have an average of 4 children per family
and dependents ranging between 1 to 30 people. Table 4.1 summarizes the
socio-economic and demographic characteristics.
33
Table 4.1: Socio-Economic & Demographic characteristics of the
respondents
Characteristic
No. of Respondents
Gender
Male
325
Female
18
Age category
Below 21 years
32
21-30 years
172
31-40 years
114
41-50 years
21
51+ years
4
Educational level
None
7
Primary
255
Secondary
79
Tertiary/middle college
2
Marital status
Single
64
Married
272
Divorced
1
Widowed
6
Other source of income
Agriculture
106
Manual work
201
Hand outs
24
Net mending
2
Income per month
Below 5000
208
5000-15000
132
Number of people living in the
household
Below 5
244
5-10
82
Over 10
5
Source: Based on Fieldwork Data 2011
Percent
94.8
5.2
9.3
50.2
33.2
6.1
1.2
6.96
70.43
21.74
0.87
18.7
79.3
0.3
1.8
30.9
58.6
7.0
0.6
60.6
38.5
71.1
23.9
1.5
4.3 Climatic Trends in Mbita Division between 1992-2011
Secondary data on climatic trends for Mbita were obtained from the
meteorological station at ICIPE Mbita in order to establish the changes that
have taken place over the past two decades. This was crucial as an indicator to
34
the phenomenon of weather and climate variability. This information is
presented in this section.
4.3.1 Trend of wind speed for Mbita: 1992-2011
The statistical record of wind data obtained from the meteorological station in
Mbita for the period between 1992 and 2011 as presented in Figure 4.1 showed
a decreased trend in the average wind speed across the months from January to
December over the 20 years, with the highest wind speed being experienced in
the month of March and the lowest wind speed in the month of June. However,
the data showed an increased trend in wind speed over the 20 years with the
highest wind speed being experienced in the year 2011 (Figure 4.2). During the
period of 20 years, the wind speed had risen to around 32.48 km/day (Table
4.2). The average wind speed recorded for Mbita during this period was 127.9
Km/day with a standard deviation of 28.0. Such changes denote changes in
climatic regimes. This is a trend certainly to affect fishing activities. Strong
winds according to Jallow et al. (1999) have adverse effects on fishing
infrastructure and fisher folks themselves as fishing vessels get destroyed, lost
or submerged.
Monthly average wind speed
(km/Day)
35
Figure 4.1: Monthly trend of wind data for Mbita: 1992-2011
Average yearly wind speed
(km/Day)
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
Figure 4.2: Yearly trend of wind data for Mbita: 1992-2011
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
36
Table 4.2: Analysis of wind data from 1992 to 2011
Wind
Mean (Km/Day)
Standard deviation (Km/Day)
Trend (Km/Day/Year or Month)
Total change calculated from the trend (Km/Day/ 20 years)*
Monthly
127.9
28.0
0.12
-16.11
Yearly
127.9
28.0
0.24
32.48
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
*Total change is the difference between the trend line value of the last and first
year.
4.3.2 Trend of rainfall changes for Mbita 1992-2011
The recorded data on rainfall from 1992 to 2011 showed that April had the
highest amount of rainfall over the years recording an average of 206.5 mm;
February recorded the lowest rainfall over the years with an average of
54.1mm (Figure 4.3). The 20 years under consideration (1992 to 2011) showed
an increasing trend in annual rainfall by 3.97 mm per year (Table 4.3) with the
year 2006 recording an average of 142.2 mm of rainfall regarded as the highest
amount of rainfall during the period (Figure 4.4). The average amount of
rainfall recorded during this period was 117.4 mm (SD 82.2) as shown in Table
4.3.
The irregularity in rainfall pattern from these records points a clear
indication to weather and climate variability, some years like 1997, 2002 and
2006 have exceptionally high average rainfall of over 140mm, while others
have lower than 100mm (figure. 4.4).
37
Figure 4.3: Monthly trend of rainfall data for Mbita: 1992-2011
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
Figure 4.4: Yearly trend of rainfall data for Mbita: 1992-2011
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
Table 4.3: Analysis of rainfall data from 1992 to 2011
Rainfall
Monthly Yearly
Mean (mm)
117.4
117.4
Standard deviation (mm)
82.2
82.2
Trend (mm /year or month)
0.01
0.01
Total change calculated from the trend (mm /20 years)* -11.54
3.97
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
*Total change is the difference between the trend line value of the last and first
year.
38
4.3.3Trend of temperature changes for Mbita 1992-2011
An analysis of temperature data for Mbita between 1992 and 2011 showed an
increasing trend. During the period of 20 years, the maximum temperature had
risen by around 0.50 0C and minimum temperatures by 0.77 0C (Table 4.4).
However, there are fluctuations over the months (Figure 4.5). Figure 4.6 shows
the change in average temperature of the area, which depicts a warming trend
in the area. The maximum average temperature being 29.8 0C (SD1.6)
Figure 4.5: Monthly trend of temperature data for Mbita: 1992-2011
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
39
Figure 4.6: Yearly trend of temperature data for Mbita: 1992-2011
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
Table 4.4: Analysis of temperature data from 1992 to 2011
Temperatures
Monthly
Yearly
Min
Max Min Max
Mean (0C)
17.4
29.8
17.4 29.8
Standard deviation (0C)
0.7
1.6
0.7
1.6
0
Trend ( C/year or month)
0.01
0.04
0.49 0.08
Total change calculated from the trend (0C/20 years)*
-0.16 -0.67 0.77 0.50
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
*Total change is the difference between the trend line value of the last and first
year.
4.4 Perception of respondents on whether or not weather and climate
variability affect fisher-folk and fishing activities
Climatic changes may sometimes have adverse effects on the fisher folks due
to the dangers it imposes. This study attempted to assess the effect of the
weather and climatic variability on the lives of the fisher folk. The first step
40
was to find out whether the fisher folk were aware that weather and climate
variability affects fishing activities. All the respondents observed that
variability in climate and reduction in lake water levels affects the fishing
activities. When the respondents were asked whether weather and climate
variability and reduction in lake water levels affect the fisher folk, 95.3% of the
respondents observed that it affects fisher folk while 4.7% of the respondents
observed that weather and climate variability and reduction in lake water levels
does not affect the fisher folk (Figure 4.7). According to FAO (2008) many
lakes have shown moderate to strong warming since 1960’s and others are
receding. There are particular concerns for African lakes, as the atmospheric
temperature of the continent is predicted to be higher than the global average
and rainfall is projected to decrease, which will impact negatively on fishing
activities in these lakes. Crandall (2009) points out that receding water level in
Lake Victoria is due to the degradation and loss of wetlands which is more
rapid than that of other ecosystems. Daw, Neil, Katrina and Badjeck (2008),
observed that lake fishing especially in Africa is impacted by reduced lake
levels and catches due to reduced precipitation and high run off as a result of
weather and variability. Jul-Larsen, Kolding, Overa, Raakjaer and Zweiten
(2003), noted that the dynamics of fisheries in African lakes are driven
primarily by climate variability and that both the ecosystem and the livelihoods
of fisher-folk living near these water bodies are highly adapted to extensive
fluctuations in lake size and depth, extent of flood plains and changes in
aquatic productivity.
41
Figure 4.7: Perception of the Respondents on Whether or not
Weather and Climate Variability and Reduction of Lake
Water Levels Affect fisher folk
Source: Based on Fieldwork Data 2011
4.5. Effect of weather and climate variability on fisher folks and Fishing
Duration
Badjeck et al. (2009) points out that climate variability has direct impact on the
fisher folks themselves. He notes that it can lead to loss of life among other
things. Table 4.5 summarizes the fisher folk expression of the impact of
different aspects of weather and climate variability on them. These impacts are
discussed in the subsequent sub-sections.
42
Table 4.5: Effects of weather and Climate Variability on fisher folk
Variability
Strong winds
Loss of life as
a result of
boat
submerging
f
%
Sickness of
fisher folks
due to body
injuries
F
%
Loss of
No effect
fishing gear
in water
f
%
f
%
287
83.7
51
14.9
5
1.5
0
0.0
Calm
condition
Storm
0
0.0
1
0.3
1
0.3
341
99.4
69
20.1
235
68.5
22
6.4
17
5.0
High rainfall
199
58.0
61
17.8
78
22.7
5
1.5
Moderate
rainfall
Low rainfall
0
0.0
26
7.6
5
1.5
312
90.9
0
0.0
42
12.2
1
0.3
300
87.5
Drought
0
0.0
0
0.0
20
5.8
323
94.2
224
65.3
31
9.0
79
23.0
9
2.6
33.5
4
1.2
207
60.3
19.5
17
5.0
259
75.5
3.8
4
1.2
326
95.0
Flood
High
17
5.0
115
temperature
Low
0
0.0
67
temperature
Moderate
0
0.0
13
temperature
Source: Based on Fieldwork Data, 2011
4.5.1: Effect of Change in Wind Pattern on fisher folks
The results in Table 4.5 showed that all the respondents (100%) observed that
strong winds have adverse effects on fisher folk. This can be deduced from the
fact that about 83.7% noted that fisher folk lose their lives as a result of boat
submergence, 14.9% said that the fisher folks fall sick due to body injuries,
1.5% observed that the fishing equipment get lost in water and none said that
strong winds have no effect on fisher folk. On the other hand 99.4% of the
respondents preferred calm conditions for their activities. With regard to
43
stormy conditions, 68.5% observed that fisher folk fall sick due to body
injuries, 20.1% noted that storms causes loss of life as a result of the boat
submergence, 6.4% observed that fisher folk’s fishing equipment get lost in
water during such a condition, while only 5.0% of the respondents observed
that storms have no effect on fisher folk. These findings concur with the
observation of Crandall (2009), who noted that changes in wind patterns and
occurrence of severe storms as a result of climate variability are likely to
impact on fish production, species composition, distribution, safety and
efficiency of fishing. According Jallow et al., (1999) storm and severe weather
events can destroy productive assets and infrastructure such as landing sites,
boats and gear, as well as impacting negatively on the health of the fisher folk.
A look at wind trends in Mbita Division between 1992-2011 show an increased
trend in wind speed over the 20 years with the highest wind speed being
experienced in the year 2011 (Figure 4.2). During the period of 20 years, the
wind speed had risen to around 32.48 km/day (Table 4.2). The average wind
speed recorded for Mbita during this period was 127.9 Km/day with a standard
deviation of 28.0. With this kind of trend therefore the fisher folks are bound to
be affected as pointed out above.
However, one striking finding from statistics obtained from the Fisheries
Department is that the year that had the highest wind speed had the highest
number of fisher folks. Table 4.6 shows that the year 2002 which had the
highest number of fisher folk also recorded the highest wind speed, 2006 that
had a slightly higher number of fisher folk recorded the lowest wind speed.
44
This trend shows that although strong winds have effects on fisher folk such as
injuries and loss of lives, submergence of boats and loss of fishing gears, the
intensity in wind speed in a given year does not influence the number of fisher
folk engaging in fishing activities in Mbita Division.
45
Table 4.6: Effects of Wind on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for
Fishing
Year
Wind- speed (mean)
Number of Fishers
2000
134.9
14,782
2002
136.3
16,727
2004
130.3
11,639
2006
119.1
15,585
2008
124.7
14,341
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
and Lake Victoria (Kenya) Fisheries Frame Survey, 2006
4.5.2 Effect of Change in Rainfall Patterns on Fisher folk
The results from Table 4.5 show that change in rainfall pattern has effect on
fisher folk in Mbita Division. For instance 58.0% of the respondents said that
high rainfall results into loss of life as a result of submergence of vessels,
22.7% of the respondents said that fisher folk lose their gear in waters and
17.8% said there are fisher folk who fall sick due to body injuries as a result of
high rainfall when their vessels are swept. With regard to moderate and low
rainfall, an overwhelming majority (90.9% and 87.5% respectively) of the
fisher folk observed that moderate and low rainfall have no effect in the lives
of the fisher folk. Drought, another aspect of rainfall seemed to have little
effects on the fisher folk with 94.2% of the fisher folk observing that drought
has no effect. The major impact of flooding according to the findings is that it
causes loss of lives (65.3%) and fishing gear (23.0%). Crandall, (2009) in her
study also found out that majority of Kenyan community recognized the danger
of increased flooding attributed to greater climate variability. When asked to
compare the effects of flooding versus drought, most respondents had a greater
46
fear of floods than drought citing the larger potential for floods to wreck utter
havoc and death.
Results from the Fisheries Department indicate that the amount of rainfall
positively influences the number of fisher folk engaging in fishing activities
(Table 4.7) whereby during high rainfall many people tend to go fishing due to
increased fish in the lake while during low rainfall or drought few people go
fishing due to low yield (Ministry of Fisheries, 2008). This means that more
fisher folk are at risks given the above stated consequences of high rainfall,
storm and flooding.
Table 4.7: Effects of Rainfall on Number of fisher folk Going Out for
Fishing
Year
Average Rainfall (mm)
Number of Fishers
2000
101.2
14,782
2002
135.1
16,727
2004
118.8
11,639
2006
142.2
15,585
2008
113.3
14,341
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological Station (19922011) and Lake Victoria Fisheries Frame Survey (2006)
4.5.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature Pattern on Fisher folk
The results from the study (Table 4.5) show that temperature variations have
little effect on the fisher folk. Majority of the fisher folk observed that high
temperature (60.3%), moderate temperature (95.0%) and low temperature
(75.5%) had no effect on the fisher folk. Generally, during high temperatures
fisher folk tend not to go fishing because of low yield of fish. This observation
is supported by FAO (2008) that temperature changes are likely to impact cold
water species negatively and warm water species positively. According to FAO
47
(2008), with increase in atmospheric temperature, there would be changes in
fish distribution and abundance in the lake. This implies that temperatures
directly influence the number of fisher folk going to fish in the lake. This
observation is found on data obtained from Fisheries Department from Mbita
Division (Table 4.8).
Table 4.8: Effects of Temperature on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for
Fishing
Year
Mean Temperature (0o)
Number of Fishers
2000
23.9
14,782
2002
23.6
16,727
2004
25.6
11,639
2006
23.5
15,585
2008
23.9
14,341
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological Station (19922011) and Lake Victoria Fisheries Frame Survey (2006)
4.6 Effect of Climate Variability on Fishing Duration
The study sought to establish whether changes in wind pattern affect duration
of fishing. This is because weather and climate variability can impact fishing
duration in multiple ways. The findings are summarized and presented in Table
4.9.
48
Table 4.9: Effect of weather and Climate Variability on Fishing Duration
Variability
Strong
winds
Calm
condition
Storm
High
rainfall
Moderate
rainfall
Low
rainfall
Drought
Flood
High
temperature
Low
temperature
Moderate
temperature
Short time
Normal time
Longer time
No fishing at
all
f
%
298
86.9
f
30
%
8.8
F
0
%
0.0
f
15
%
4.4
15
4.4
105
30.6
222
64.7
1
0.3
266
50
77.6
14.6
16
1
4.7
0.3
1
15
0.3
4.4
60
277
17.5
80.8
85
24.8
157
45.8
43
12.5
58
16.9
137
39.9
152
44.3
54
15.7
0
0.0
1
166
197
0.3
48.4
57.4
135
141
136
39.4
41.1
39.7
191
35
5
55.7
10.2
1.7
16
1
5
4.7
0.3
1.7
17
5.0
290
84.5
35
10.2
1
0.3
1
0.3
302
88.0
39
11.4
0
0.0
Source: Based on Fieldwork Data 2011
4.6.1 Effect of Change of Wind Pattern on Fishing Duration
According to the findings in Table 4.9 majority of the respondents (86.9%)
observed that during strong winds there is no fishing at all, while 8.8% said
they take shorter time fishing during strong winds. When asked about fishing
duration during calm conditions, majority (64.7%) observed that they take
longer time fishing while 30.6% observed that they take the normal time
fishing and only 4.4% said that they take shorter time.
Calm conditions provide the fisher folk with favourable conditions to venture
into the waters for a longer period of time without the fear of submergence or
49
losing their fishing gears. During storm, majority of the fisher folk (77.6%)
observed that fishing duration is shortened and over 17% observed that there is
no fishing at all. The fear of strong winds and storms keeps away the fisher
folk thus either shortening the fishing duration or leads to no fishing at all.
According to Johnson (2012) increased frequency and severity of storms or
weather may be unsuitable for fishing. Fedoulo, Murphy and Shugousky
(1996) concurs that strong winds drive the water currents very fast thus
affecting fish catch. Song, Semazzi, Xie and Ogolla (2004) also observed that
wind speed and intensity in Bukoba (Tanzania) influences the fish catch per
vessel either positively or negatively. The same was also observed to affect fish
catches in Musoma. These observations are in agreement with the findings of
this study.
4.6.2 Effect of Change of Rainfall Pattern on Fishing Duration
Changes in rainfall pattern are likely to have different impacts on the duration
of fishing it may either prolong or shorten the duration. The results from the
study (Table 4.9) show that rainfall has effect on fishing duration in Mbita
Division. During high rainfall, 80.8% of the respondents observed that there is
no fishing at all, 14.6% observed that fishing takes a shorter time, and only
0.3% observed that fishing takes the normal time. During moderate and low
rainfall, majority of the respondents observed that fishing duration takes
normal time (45.8% and 44.3% respectively). During drought the results of the
study showed that fishing duration range from normal time (55.7%) to longer
time (39.4). However, up to 4.7% of the respondents observed that there is no
50
fishing at all. Daw et al., (2008) noted that during drought the fishers around
Lake Chilwa in Malawi opt for other sources of livelihood due to reduction on
yields.
Flooding had also a negative impact on fishing duration. During floods
according to the 48.4% of the respondents fishing duration is shortened, this is
largely due to the threat of flooding on safety in the waters, but also
interestingly due to high yields that can be harvested over a short time.
According to Allison et al. (2005) flooding raises fish yields mainly as a result
of increased basin run off and discharge rates. In Lake Victoria, most fish
species do have breeding and spawning season in different times, but with a
peak at the end of rainy season.
According to Lowe (1997) during rainy seasons, nutrients are injected into the
lake from the land. This leads to phytoplankton bloom. Heavy rains also plays
an important role in the breeding activities (Owiti, 1986) as some fish species
of Lake Victoria fluctuates in abundance during drought and flood years.
4.6.3 Effect of Change of Temperature Pattern on Fishing Duration
Respondents were requested to indicate whether changes in temperature
patterns affect the duration of fishing. The results from the study showed that
apart from high temperature where majority (57.4%) observed that fishing
duration is shortened, moderate and low temperature do not have much impact
on fishing duration as majority take the normal time (88.0% and 84.5%
respectively). During high temperatures fisher folk tend not to go fishing
51
because of low yield of fish. According to O’Reilly, Allivi, Pilsnier, Cohen and
Mckee (2003) fish production in Lake Tanganyika has declined in the recent
past largely due to increasing temperature.
This view is also supported by IPCC (1990) that there is one school of thought
who holds that biological productivity of some fish species may increase with
increasing temperature just to ascertain threshold, but in some species, the
decline in productivity comes with the increase in temperature. This supports
the view that temperature influence the fishing duration.
4.7 Effects of seasonal variability of climatic elements on fish catch in
Mbita Division
According to Trotman (2002) climatic variation may results to changes in
fishing activities which in turn prompts variability in fish-catch. The prevailing
climate in a particular season in a particular year may differ from what it was
in that same season in another year, with corresponding consequences for
certain fish-stock sizes. This change is something that most fishers are
accustomed to, even expect, and they usually accommodate it without
experiencing serious economic problems if they are not already overharvesting their key fisheries resources. But in the longer-term, weather and
climate variability may result to corresponding changes in lake ecological
conditions which may bring about more lasting changes in the availability of
certain fish stocks. The fish species that may have long disappeared suddenly
52
become abundant. This may benefit the fishers if the newly abundant fish
species is valuable to them. On the other hand it may harm them if the newly
abundant fish preys upon or displaces other long-important fish stocks.
Likewise, weather and climate variability can cause a long-abundant and
important fish stock to disappear, due to changing ecology. But more often
than not, such radical changes in stock availabilities result from the combined
effects of lake-ecological changes and over-harvesting fishery resources.
Figure 4.8 shows that there has been an increase in fish catch in Mbita Division
over the years between 1997 and 2007 then a decline to 2010.
Figure 4.8: Fish Catch Trends in Mbita: 1997-2010
Source: Based on data from Beach Management Unit-Mbita District, 2011.
Respondents were requested to indicate the intensity of the effects of seasonal
variability of climate on fish catch on the scale ranging from very high to very
low in terms (amount of fish catch). The results of their responses are presented
in Table 4.10.
53
Table 4.10: Effects of seasonal weather and climate variability on fish
catch
Variability
Strong
winds
Calm
condition
Storm
High rainfall
Moderate
rainfall
Low rainfall
Drought
Flood
High
temperature
Low
temperature
Moderate
temperature
Very low
1
Moderate/
normal
%
f
%
0.3
76 22.2
f
12
%
3.5
Very
High
f
%
45 13.1
0.3
5
1.5
181
52.8
22
6.4
134 39.1
91 26.5
131 38.2
4 1.2
246
24
8
71.7
7.0
2.4
1
60
203
0.3
17.5
59.2
5
100
97
1.5
29.2
28.3
1 0.3
179 52.2
2 0.6
41 12.0
132
83
45
165
38.5
24.2
13.1
48.1
183
44
80
90
53.4
12.8
23.3
16.2
27
36
65
46
7.9
10.5
19.0
13.4
f
%
209 60.9
1
Low
f
High
0
28
31
0.0
8.2
9.0
0 0.0
1 0.3
151 44.0
1 0.3
10
2.9
158
46.1
160
46.6
14
4.1
1
0.3
0
0.0
10
2.9
158
46.1
173
50.4
2
0.6
Source: Based on Fieldwork Data, 2011.
4.7.1 Effect of Change of Wind on Fish Catch
Variability in wind patterns often affects fish catch in lakes. From the study
results (Table 4.10), majority (61.2%) of the respondents observed that strong
winds reduce fish catch. This is true based on the fact that as it had been
presented earlier, the duration of fishing is shortened or there is no fishing at
all. At the same time fishing vessels and gear may be destroyed during strong
winds thus leading to low fish catch. Some species of fish may migrate further
into the deep waters thus affecting fish catch. The situation is different during
calm conditions as only 1.8% of the respondents reported low fish catch, while
52.8% reported normal fish catch and up to 45.5% reported an increase in fish
54
catch. The storm had even more adverse impact on fish catch than strong
winds, where up to 98.2% of the respondents reported reduction in fish catch
and only 1.8% reported normal catch or an increase in fish catch.
Trotman (2002) notes that extreme weather such as tropical cyclones can be
very damaging to the fisheries industries as they cause destruction on the
fishing gear, fishing vessels and coral reefs which is a major setback to the
fishing community due to reduced fish catch and by extension the general
population. In Jamaica and Florida, the Hurricane Gilbert and Andrew in 1989
destroyed large expanse of fish habitat (mangrove) causing loss of valuable
fish stock and fish species.
From the secondary data obtained from the fisheries and meteorological
departments, the amount of fish catch tends to go up when the winds stabilizes
and reduces during strong winds as seen in the trends over the years (Table
4.11). This is seen to be in line with the general feeling of the fisher folk in the
region.
Table 4.11: Effects of Wind on Amount of Fish Catch
Year
Wind-speed (mean)
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
134.9
136.3
129.4
130.3
123.4
Amount of Fishcatch
133,526
105,866
114,812
115,747
192,738
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
and District Fisheries Department, Mbita District, 2011.
55
4.7.2 Effect of Change in Rainfall on Fish Catch
It is expected that rainfall would influence fish catch in any given time, the
results from the study showed a mixed impact of high rainfall in fish catch.
While 45.2% of the respondents reported low to very low catch during high
rainfall season, 37.4% reported high to very high fish catch. This may be
explained from the fact that although during high rainfall there is an increase in
fish yield but the dangers posed by high rainfall deter some fisher folk from
venturing into the waters for a long period. Thus, those who take the risks
record higher yields while those who stay away or venture into the waters for a
short while due to fear, injuries or loss of vessels during high rainfall record
low fish catch. However, during moderate and low rainfall season the fish
catch is mainly moderate/normal (59.2% and 53.4% respectively).
The effect of drought on fish catch was also investigated and the results
showed that 63.0% of the respondents observed that fish catch ranged from
high to very high. Thus, floods were found to positively affect fish catch in the
lake. Allison et al., (2005) noted that in Bangladesh, a 20 -40% increase in
flooded areas raised total annual fish yields by between 60000 – 130000 tonnes
as a result of increased basin run off and discharge rates.
Secondary data from the Fisheries and Meteorological Departments in Mbita
showed that the amount of fish catch is influenced by the amount of rainfall
experienced in the regions as depicted in Table 4.12.
56
Table 4.12: Effects of Rainfall on Amount of Fish Catch
Year
Average Rainfall (mm)
Amount of Fish
Catch
2000
101.2
133,526
2002
96.3
105,866
2003
104.3
114,812
2004
118.8
115,747
2005
135.1
192,738
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
and District Fisheries Department, Mbita District, 2011
4.7.3 Effect of Change in Temperature on Fish Catch
Although very extreme temperatures (e.g. very high and very low) have an
impact on fish yields, moderate to low temperatures do not have much impact
on the yields. The results of this study revealed that majority of the respondents
reported normal fish catch during moderate and low temperatures (59.2% and
53.4% respectively). However, during high temperatures, 48.1% of the
respondents said that fish catch was low. This corresponds with earlier
assertion made in this presentation that generally during high temperatures
fisher folk fisher folk tend not to go fishing because of low yield of fish.
According to Johnson (2012), increased stream temperature as a result of high
temperatures and lower water levels in fresh water systems can reduce the
productivity of spawning and rearing waters. Mahon (2002) observed that in
the Caribbean Sea, Meso scale climate variability such as the sea surface
temperature change influenced the migration and stock patterns of fish,
consequently affecting the availability of fish stocks and local fishing fleets.
However, secondary data on fish catch and temperature variations over the
years obtained from the fisheries and meteorological departments in Mbita in
57
Table 4.13 show that there was very little impact of temperature variations on
fish catch.
Table 4.13: Effects of Temperature on Number of Fisher folk Going Out
for Fishing
Year
Mean Temperature (0o)
Amount of Fish
Catch
2000
23.9
133,526
2002
23.6
105,866
2003
23.4
114,812
2004
25.6
115,747
2005
24.2
192,738
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1997-2011
and District Fisheries Department, Mbita District, 2011
4.8
Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on the Choice of Fishing
Equipment and Techniques
Fishing equipment and techniques increase or reduce the yield of fish catch.
However, their choices are influenced by the prevailing weather conditions.
The researcher set to find out the effect of climate variability (rainfall, wind
and temperature) on fishing techniques and equipments. The results of the
findings are presented in this section.
4.8.1 Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on the Choice of Fishing
Techniques
The fishing techniques that were adversely mentioned by the respondents
during the study and which in the study are referred to as other techniques
include; trapping, long line fishing, splashing and poisoning. These techniques
are chosen depending on the season and also on the prevailing climatic
conditions. The usual fishing methods mentioned in this study include use of
58
Gill nets, Beach seines, Castnets, Liftnets and Handlines. Table 4.14 presents
the choice of fishing techniques during different climatic conditions.
Table 4.14: Effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of
fishing techniques
Variability in
Weather and
Climate
Use of usual fishing
method (Gill nets,Beach
seines,Cast net,Lift net,
Hand lines)
f
%
122
35.6
338
98.5
98
28.6
123
35.9
239
69.7
239
69.7
293
85.4
305
88.9
130
37.9
242
70.6
330
96.2
Strong winds
Calm condition
Storm
High rainfall
Moderate rainfall
Low rainfall
Drought
Flood
High temperature
Low temperature
Moderate
temperature
Source: Based on Fieldwork Data, 2011
Use other techniques
(Trapping, Hook and Long
lines, Handlines, Splashing
and poisoning)
f
%
221
64.4
5
1.5
245
71.4
219
63.9
104
30.3
104
30.3
50
14.6
25
7.3
212
61.8
101
29.5
13
3.8
4.8.1.1 Effect of Changes in Wind on Choice of Fishing Techniques
During strong winds and storms majority (64.4% and 71.4% respectively) of
the respondents mentioned using other fishing techniques (Table 4.14). The
preferred fishing methods during strong wind and storms are trapping and long
line methods as well as splashing. These are preferred due to the danger of
venturing deep into the waters. Apart from the fear of venturing into deep
waters during strong waves, pelagic fish swim close to the shore in the waves.
The fisher folk easily harvest them using the traps constructed at the beach, or
by the use of baited hooks. Usual methods like beach seining during storms is
abandoned because of them, being destroyed due to rise in lake level. During
59
calm conditions the preferred fishing techniques are what are referred to as
usual (98.5%), these include gill nets, beach seines, cast net, lift net and hand
lines. These methods are called usual because they are the methods majority of
fisher folk are used and accustomed to. They are relatively old methods of
fishing.
In calm condition, beach seines are easier to work on because the lake bed is
relatively free of obstacles brought in by strong waves and storms which might
interfere with fishing operations, hence the reason why the usual methods are
preferred.
4.8.1.2 Effect of Changes in Rainfall on Choice of Fishing Techniques
The study showed that fishing techniques change a lot during high rainfall
where 63.9% use the other techniques as opposed to the usual fishing methods.
The preferred fishing methods during high rainfall include poisoning, splashing
and trapping. The situation is however different during moderate and low
rainfall seasons, 69.7% of the respondents respectively reported the usual
fishing method. During drought majority (85.4%) of the respondents use the
other techniques of fishing, the main one being long lines, and in some cases
poisoning. This can be attributed to reduction in fish yield that may prompt
fisher folk to employ such methods. Hamilton and Snedaker (1984) observe
that extended periods of drought results in loss of fish habitats (mangroves)
prompting fisher folk to adopt the most appropriate fishing techniques to
sustain their daily incomes. Snedaker, Vicente, Singh and Botello (1993) noted
that the behaviour of mangroves (habitats) corresponds to either sea level rise
60
or reduction. The topography of the shoreline therefore plays a major role in
determining whether there is habitat gain or loss hence the stock of fish.
Goudswaard, Franswitte and Laurenj (2002) observed that during spawning,
lungfish population is decreased when the breeding habitat are deteriorated by
factors such as drought.
During flooding according to the findings of this study, the preferred
techniques of fishing are using the usual techniques (88.9%). The high yields
during this period may not require change of techniques. This view is
supported by Badjeck (2002) and Palomino (1985) who observed that in Peru,
the El-Niño event of 1997-1998, made fisher-folk to switch from their diving
methods to the use of fishing nets in order to maximise scallop harvests.
4.8.1.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature on Fishing Techniques
During high temperatures, majority of the respondents (61.8%) reported using
other methods of fishing while 37.9% reported using the usual methods of
fishing. This change in techniques during high temperature may be attributed to
low fish yield. High temperatures are normally experienced during drought,
and as Daw et al., (2008) noted, there is a reduction on fish yields. Rising
temperatures render oxygen less soluble (Idvisi, Luthy, Capo and Serafy,
2003), thus, deoxygenation results into movement of fish into deep and cool
waters.
McCullough (1999) observes that prolonged exposure of stream temperature to
adult salmon is lethal to them, hence their distribution at times depend on the
61
water temperature. This could explain the change of the fishing methods.
However, during low and moderate temperature the yields are high thus
majority of the respondents reported using the usual fishing methods (70.6%
and 96.2% respectively).
4.8.2 Effects of weather and climate variability on the Fishing equipment
The results on the effects of climate variability on the choice of fishing
equipments are presented in this section. The respondents were required to
indicate the effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing
equipments. The results of their responses are summarized and presented in
Table 4.15.
Table 4.15: Effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of
fishing equipments
WeatherVariability
Destroyed
f
%
Strong winds
218 63.6
Calm condition
1
0.3
Storm
173 50.4
High rainfall
36
10.5
Moderate rainfall
26
7.6
Low rainfall
0
0.0
Drought
92
26.8
Flood
40
11.7
High temperature
147 42.9
Low temperature
17
5.0
Moderate temperature
1
0.3
Source: Based on Fieldwork Data 2011
Submerged
f
%
82
23.9
43
12.5
80
23.3
171
49.9
105
30.6
105
30.6
0
0.0
298
86.9
4
1.2
22
6.4
22
6.4
No effect
f
%
43
12.5
299
87.2
38
11.1
136
39.7
199
58.0
237
73.2
251
73.2
5
1.5
192
56.0
304
88.6
320
93.3
62
4.8.2.1 Effect of Changes in Wind on Choice of Fishing Equipment
Wind as an aspect of weather and climate variability affects the fishing
equipment. The results of the study showed that strong winds either destroy
(63.6%) or submerged (23.9%) the fishing equipment while 12.5% of the
respondents reported that strong winds have no effect on the fishing equipment.
The situation was the same during storm where 50.4% of the respondents
observed that fishing equipments get destroyed, 23.3% observed that the
equipments submerged while 11.1% reported that there is no effect of storm on
fishing equipments. Calm conditions are the most favourable for fishing
activities, over 87% of the respondents observed that there is no damage on
fishing equipment during calm condition.
Secondary data obtained from fisheries and meteorological departments
supports the link between changes in wind pattern and choice of fishing
equipments. During the years it is evident that the trend for wind speed has
been on the decline. Fishing crafts which are majorly affected by wind/storm
show an inverse proportion i.e. when the winds are blowing strongly the
number of fishing crafts used for fishing goes down and fisher folk tend to use
the fishing crafts when wind speed is low or calm (Table 4.16). Mahon (2002)
noted that the fishing industry of Antigua and Barbuda sustained substantial
losses as a result of Hurricane Luis and about 16% of their fleet were either
destroyed or lost, and further 18% was totally damaged. The use of gillnets and
seines also follow the same trend as fishing crafts which implies that strong
winds or storm affects the use of these methods of fishing. However, fishing
63
hooks are not interfered with by wind instead increases when there is strong
winds/storm and decreases in a similar manner (Table 4.16).
Table 4.16: Effects of Wind on Fishing Equipment and Techniques
Year
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Wind- Speed Fishing equipment and techniques
in Km/Hr
Total number of Fishing Seines
fishing crafts
hooks
134.9
4,051
511,978 491
136.3
3,267
557,077 281
130.3
3,575
420,631 382
119.1
4,910
280,798 1,443
124.7
4,486
403,249 565
Gillnets
37,527
28,797
74,904
89,985
75,255
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
and Lake Victoria (Kenya) Fisheries Frame Survey, 2006
4.8.2.2 Effect of Changes in Rainfall on Fishing Equipment
According to the findings of this study 73.2% and 49.9% of the respondents
reported that fishing equipments submerged during flooding and high rainfall
respectively, while 11.7% and10.5% reported destruction of fishing equipment
under the same circumstances. During moderate and low rainfall, majority of
the respondents reported that there is no effect on fishing equipments (58.0%
and 73.2% respectively). High rainfall and resultant flooding is sometimes
accompanied by storms that are likely to cause fishing equipments to
Submerged or get destroyed. However, during high rainfall fish yields are
normally high hence the likelihood of many fisher folk venturing into the lake
despite the risk of submergence and destruction of fish craft.
Secondary data obtained from fisheries and meteorological departments was
further utilized for comparison purposes although it did capture the intensity
64
and other aspects such as drought but the average amounts. This limits the
effectiveness of the comparison; however, the data showed that the average
annual rainfall increased in 2002, declined in 2004 and then increased in 2006,
this shows an irregular pattern of rainfall in the region. The number of fishing
crafts and hooks seem to follow the same trend as rainfall suggesting that
rainfall does not affect the use of these equipments for fishing. The use of
gillnets and seines are affected by the fluctuating rainfall patterns where the
number of gillnets and seines increased when the rainfall was high and
decreased when rainfall dropped (Table 4.17).
Table 4.17: Effects of Rainfall on Fishing Equipment and Techniques
Year Average
Rainfall
(mm)
2000 101.2
2002 135.1
2004 118.8
2006 142.2
2008 113.3
Fishing equipment and techniques
Total number of
Fishing
Seines
fishing crafts
hooks
4,051
511,978 491
3,267
557,077 281
3,575
420,631 382
4,910
280,798 1,443
4,486
403,249 565
Gillnets
37,527
28,797
74,904
89,985
75,255
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
and Lake Victoria (Kenya) Fisheries Frame Survey, 2006
4.8.2.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature on Fishing Equipment
The findings of this study revealed that temperature variations have no effect
on fishing equipments. Majority of the respondents reported that high
temperatures (56.0%), low temperatures (88.6%) and moderate temperatures
(93.3%) have no effect on fishing equipment. Temperature unless very extreme
is unlikely to cause damage, Submerged or destroy fishing equipments.
65
Secondary data from the fisheries and meteorological departments showed that
the number of fishing crafts seemed not to be affected so much by the
temperatures of the region but showed a slight increase in their use when the
temperatures went down. Use of gillnets, fishing hooks and seines did not show
any effect by temperatures since they showed irregular trends of the usage for
fishing (Table 4.18).
Table 4.18: Effects of Temperature on Fishing Equipment and Techniques
Year Average
Fishing equipment and techniques
o
Temperature(0 ) Total number of Fishing
Seines
fishing crafts
hooks
2000 23.9
4,051
511,978 491
2002 23.6
3,267
557,077 281
2004 25.6
3,575
420,631 382
2006 23.5
4,910
280,798 1,443
2008 23.9
4,486
403,249 565
Gillnets
37,527
28,797
74,904
89,985
75,255
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011
and Lake Victoria (Kenya) Fisheries Frame Survey, 2006
4.9 Coping and adaptive strategies of fishing community in Mbita Division
The results of the study revealed that 95.9% of the respondents observed that
variability in weather and climate has affected their livelihoods as fisher folk as
opposed to only 4.1% who have not noticed any difference in their livelihood
despite weather and climate variability (Figure 4.9).
Weather and Climate variability impact through ways such as changes in
rainfall pattern, occurrence of storms, changes in wind pattern, changes in
66
temperature, changes in lake levels, increased flooding event, and drought
among others. These changes have effect on the production ecology, fishing
operations, safety and efficiency of fishing infrastructure. These effects impact
on fish species composition, production, yield risk of health and life of fisher
folk, loss and damage to livelihood assets (Badjeck et al. 2009). Therefore, the
fisher folk will have to seek adaptation and mitigation strategies in order to
sustain their livelihood.
Figure 4.9: Effect of weather and climate variability on fisher folk’s
livelihood
Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1997-2011
The respondents were asked to state how climate variability has impacted on
their livelihood. The results in Table 4.19 revealed that 99.7% of the
respondents observed that they have lost income from fishing, 99.4%
experienced reduction in access to food due to loss of revenue from fishing,
93.0% had either their fishing equipments destroyed or lost in the waters,
67
82.1% had to abandon fishing at some time for other economic activities,
68.1% lost their membership to fishing cooperatives, 66.9% had to be away
from home for some time in search of good fishing sites, 44.4% had faced the
risk of malnutrition and under-nutrition by family due to reduced access to fish
as a source of protein, while 19.8% had encountered some form of conflict
with other fisher folk over fishing areas (competing for resources). According
to FAO (2008) fishery-dependent communities are likely to face increased
vulnerability in terms of less stable livelihoods and safety risks due to fishing
in harsher weather conditions and further from their landing sites. Norbis,
Ponce, Severov, Saona, Verocai, Pshennikov, Siilva and Sencion (2005) and
Naggy, Bidegain, Caffera, Lagomarsino, Norbis, Ponce. and Sencion (2006)
noted that during strong ENSO years, the net income of fisher-folk reduces by
between 40-70% in Uruguay mainly because of the shortened peak period due
to inaccessibility of the fisheries and reduction in sizes of fish.
Table 4.19: Impact of weather and climate variability on fisher folk
livelihood
Impact of weather and climate variability on fisher folk
livelihood
Loss of income from fishing
Had to abandon fishing at some point for other economic activities
Fishing equipment destroyed or lost
Had to be away from home for sometimes in search of good fishing
sites
Loss of membership to fishing co-operative
Conflict with other fisher folk over fishing areas
Reduced access to food due to loss of revenue from fishing
Risk of malnutrition and under-nutrition by family due to reduced
access to fish for a source of protein
Source: Based on Fieldwork Data 2011
f
%
328
270
306
220
99.7
82.1
93.0
66.9
224
65
327
146
68.1
19.8
99.4
44.4
68
Other impacts of weather and climate variability mentioned by the respondents
included lack of security, loss of boats that Submerged in the lake and reduced
economic income. Katrina, Eriksen and Kelly (2002) also alludes to the fact
that the direct impact of climate variability on fisher folk livelihood include
damaged infrastructure, damaged gears, increased danger at the lake, loss/gain
of navigation routes and flooding of fishing communities. FAO (1989)
estimated the total cost of damage by Hurricane Hugo in 1989 in Antigua and
Barbuda at US$1.15 million which included replacement of 28 boats which
were lost, repair of 36 damaged and replacement of fishing traps.
4.10: Coping and adaptive strategies of fishing community in Mbita
Division
When the respondents were asked whether they rely solely on fishing, 99.7%
observed that now unlike in the past, they supplement fishing activity with
other activities like farming and operating small businesses. However, farming
which was the main supplementing economic activity was not quite viable in
the area due to the nature of the soils and also its vulnerability to the impact of
weather and climate variability like fishing. The respondents were also asked to
state if they knew of fisher folk who have completely abandoned fishing due to
effects of climate variability in their location, 98.0% of the respondents
observed that they knew some fisher folk people who have abandoned fishing
due to reduction in fish catch. The fisher folk who abandoned fishing for other
economic activities resorted mainly to farming (80.4%), small scale business
(70.5%), boat repairing (42.0%), being fish trader (62.8%), boda boda operator
(6.8%) and grazing animals for other people (1.5%) (Table 4.20).
69
Table 4.20: Coping and adaptive strategies apart from fishing
Coping and adaptive strategies apart from fishing
f
%
Farming
Small scale business
Boat repairing
Fish trader
Boda boda
Grazing animals
Source: Based on Fieldwork Data, 2011
270
237
141
211
23
5
80.4
70.5
42.0
62.8
6.8
1.5
The respondents were then asked to comment on their assessment on how these
changes on livelihood activities have impacted on the income of those fisher
folk who have abandoned fishing. Their responses were overwhelmingly that it
has drastically reduced the incomes. The general view was that weather and
climate variability has impacted negatively on the livelihood of fisher folk and
majority have opted for other sources of income.
70
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMENDATIONS
5.1 Introduction
This section presents a consolidated summary of all findings, conclusions,
recommendations and suggestions for further investigations.
5.2. Summary of Findings
This study examined the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing
and livelihood activities in Mbita Division, Homa bay County Kenya. The
factors which were examined included how changes in temperature, rainfall
and wind affects fish catch, fishing facilities, choice of fishing techniques and
livelihood of the fisher folk.
The results of the study showed that strong winds, storms, high rainfall and
floods have adverse effects on fisher folk as some lose their lives as a result of
submergence of boat (83.7%), some fall sick due to injuries (68.5%) and others
lose their fishing equipments (23.0%). The study also found out that during
strong winds, storms and floods, most fishing activities do not take place as a
result of fear of drowning or damage to fishing equipments, while fishing
activities return to normal during calm weather conditions (64.7%).
Temperature changes were reported to have very little impact on the fisher
folk. However, it is imperative to note that high rainfall and floods results in
increased fish yield and thus large number of fisher folk going out for fishing
activities.
71
On the effects of weather and climate variability on the duration of fishing, the
results revealed that during strong winds, storms and high rainfall there is
either no fishing at all or a shorter duration of fishing (86.9%). During calm
and low rainfall duration fishing duration takes the normal or longer time
(95.3%). However, during drought the fisher folk take a longer duration fishing
due to lack of fish (55.7%), while floods make duration of fishing shorter
(48.4%) due to two varied and opposing reasons. First, the risk of drowning
makes fisher folk take a short time in the waters and secondly, abundance of
fish makes it unnecessary to take along time in the waters.
With regard to fish catch, there can be no doubt that weather and climatic
variation prompts changes in fishing activities which in turn prompts
variability in fish-catch. The prevailing climate in a particular season in a
particular year may differ from what it was in that same season in another year,
with corresponding consequences for certain fish-stock sizes. The study found
that according to most respondents, strong winds, storms and high amount of
rainfall reduces the amount of fish catch (60.9%). However, flooding was
reported to increase the amount of fish catch (44.0%), while temperature
variations had no effect on the amount of fish catch. But it is also imperative to
note that majority (52.2%) of the respondents reported that drought affected the
amount of fish catch negatively.
The study further showed that fishing techniques change a lot due to weather
and climate variability. For example, the study revealed that during strong
72
winds and storms most fisher folk (64.4% and 71.4% respectively) prefer using
trappings and long lines instead of the usual methods such as gill nets. During
high rainfall, most of the fisher folk (63.9%) use poisoning, splashing and
trapping instead of the usual methods. However, variation in temperature was
reported by most respondents not to have any effect on fishing technique.
The findings of this study as presented in chapter four showed that weather and
climate variability has a lot of impact of the equipments used for fishing.
Majority of the respondents reported that strong winds (63.6%), storms
(50.4%) and high rainfall (49.9%) destroy fishing equipments and even lead to
submergence of the equipments.
The study further revealed that the above effects of weather and climate
variability had an overall impact on the livelihood of the fisher folk. Most of
them according to the findings of this study had lost their daily incomes
(99.7%), 99.4% had reduced access to food due to loss of revenue from fishing,
93.0% had lost fishing equipments, 66.9% stayed longer period away from
home and even others (82.1%) at some point of time had abandoned fishing for
other economic activities. Most of the fisher folk who had abandoned fishing
had resorted to farming (80.4%), small scale business (70.5%) and boat
repairing (42.0%).
73
5.3. Conclusions
The conclusion from this study is that weather and climate variability has
affected fishing and livelihood activities in Mbita Division, Homa bay County.
The effects range from direct impacts on the fisher folk themselves such as loss
of lives and livelihood and impact on health, to
destruction of fishing
equipments, long duration of fishing, reduced fish catch and change in fishing
techniques. Some of the fisher-folk have been forced to seek alternative
sources of livelihood such as farming, small businesses and boda boda
operator, but some of these are not sustainable due to prevailing economic
conditions and size of investment. Therefore, there is need to enhance
resilience and adoption of sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies. This
conclusion is supported by The ISCC (2010), which states that due to climate
change, the fish catch continues to decline. The small scale fisher-folk suffers
in poverty and disruption of their well being such as health, education and
other social lives. The challenge is in the mitigation and adaptation strategies
that are sustainable.
5.4: Recommendations
Based on the findings of this study, the following policy recommendations are
made:
i.
The findings showed that weather and climate variability has affected
the fisher folk in terms of loss of lives, injuries and loss of equipments.
It is thus recommended that the government and other stakeholders in
74
the fishing industry should assist the fisher-folk acquire modern
equipments that will reduce the risks and improve on their safety.
ii.
The findings of this study also revealed that weather and climate
variability has led to shorter fishing durations and less fish catch over
the years. It is therefore recommended that the fisher-folk should be
empowered to diversify their livelihood activities to areas such as fish
farming to enhance their resilience.
iii.
The findings of the study showed that weather and climate variability
has led to fisher folk adopt destructive fishing methods such as
poisoning. Thus, it is recommended that the government through
relevant ministries like fisheries should educate the fisher-folk on the
long-term dangers of using these methods. Community policing should
be used to nab the culprits.
iv.
The government and other agencies should conduct climate-change risk
and social impact assessments when evaluating mitigation and
adaptation alternatives and include analyses of distributional impacts of
such alternatives.
5.5: Suggestion for Further Research
Following the findings of the study, the following suggestions for further
research are put forth for consideration;
i.
This study was limited to Mbita Division in Mbita District. It could also
be replicated on other regions where fishing is one of the economic
activities of the communities to compare the findings.
75
ii.
This study revealed that weather and climate variability has a
significant effect on fishing and livelihood activities therefore a lot of
research on climate change impacts to support the identification of
vulnerability hot spots and the development of adaptation of fishing
strategies, including financing and risk reduction mechanisms aimed at
enabling integrated and broader national planning should be carried out
76
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84
APPENDIX I: FISHER FOLK QUESTIONNAIRE
Dear Sir/Madam,
This questionnaire is to help in gathering information on the effects of climate
variability on fishing activities in Mbita Division. The major aim is to identify
the effects of changes in Rainfall, Temperature and Wind in Fishing Activities
in Mbita Division. The answer you will give will go along way into improving
the situation posed by effects of climate variability.
Please respond as honestly as you can to all the Questions. Feel free to make
further comments you may want to. The answers you give will be treated with
utmost confidentiality. You do not have to write your name anywhere in the
Questionnaire.
Part A: Socio Economic Characteristics
1. What is your sex? (Please tick one)
o Male
o Female
2. What is your age group? (Please tick one)
o Below 21 years
o 21-30 years
o 31-40 years
o 41-50 years
o Above 50 years
3. What is your marital status? (Please tick one)
o Single
o Married
o Divorced
o Widowed
o Separated
4. If yes, what is the highest level of your education? (Please tick one)
o None-literate
o Primary school
o Secondary school
o A Level
o Tertiary/middle college
o University
o Other specify ____________________________________________
85
5. What is your other source of income apart from fishing? (Please tick one)
o Agriculture (farmer)
o Manual work
o Hand out
o Net Mender
o Other specify
_________________________________________________
6. What is your income per month? (Please tick one)
o Below 5,000
o 5,000-15,000
o 15,001-25,000
o 25,001-35,000
o Over 35,000
7. How many people live in your household? (Please tick one)
o Below 5
o 5-10
o Over 10
Part B: Impact of weather and climate variability on fisher folk
8. Has variability of weather and climate such as strong winds, high rainfall,
storm, drought, flooding, and high temperatures had any effect on your fishing
activities (Please tick one)
o Yes
o No
9. Has variability of weather and climate such as storm, drought, flooding, and
reduction in lake water levels had any effect on the fisher folk in Mbita
Division? (Please tick one)
o Yes
o No
86
10. What are the effects of weather and climate variability on fisher folk (Tick
the appropriate box)
Weather
Loss of life as a
Sickness of Loss of
No effect
Variability
result of boat
fisher folk
fishing gear
submergence
due to body in water
injuries
Strong winds
Calm condition
Storm
High rainfall
Moderate
rainfall
Low rainfall
Drought
Flood
High
temperature
Low
temperature
Moderate
temperature
11. What are the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing duration
(Tick the appropriate box)
Weather
Short time
Variability
Strong winds
Calm condition
Storm
High rainfall
Moderate rainfall
Low rainfall
Drought
Flood
High
temperature
Low temperature
Moderate
temperature
Normal
time
Longer time
No fishing
at all
87
Part C: Impact of weather and climate variability on fish catch
12. Indicate the impact of the following variability of weather and climate on
fish catch around Mbita Division
Weather
Very low Low Moderate/ High
Very High
Variability
normal
Strong winds
Calm condition
Storm
High rainfall
Moderate
rainfall
Low rainfall
Drought
Flood
High
temperature
Low temperature
Moderate
temperature
Part D: Impact of weather and climate variability on fishing techniques
13. Has variability in climate such as storm, drought, flooding, and reduction in
lake water levels had any effect on your fishing techniques (Please tick one)
o Yes
o No
14. Indicate the impact of the following variability of weather and climate on
fishing technique around Mbita Division (Tick the appropriate box)
Weather
Use of usual fishing
Use other techniques
Variability
method (Gillnets, beach
(Trapping, hook and long
seines, cast nets, lift nets,
lines, handlines, splashing and
handlines)
poisoning)
Strong winds
Calm condition
Storm
High rainfall
Moderate
rainfall
Low rainfall
Drought
Flood
High
temperature
Low temperature
Moderate
temperature
88
15. What are the effects of weather and climate variability on your fishing
equipments (boats, Nets, engine or clothing for propelling boat) (Tick the
appropriate box)
Weather
Destroy
Submerged No effect
Variability
Strong winds
Calm condition
Storm
High rainfall
Moderate rainfall
Low rainfall
Drought
Flood
High
temperature
Low temperature
Moderate
temperature
Part E: Effect of weather and climate variability on livelihood
16. Has variability in weather and climate such as storm, drought, flooding, and
reduction in lake water levels e.t.c. had any effect on your livelihood as a fisher
folk (Please tick one)
o Yes
o No
17. What impacts has weather and climate variability had on your livelihood?
(Please tick all that apply)
□ Loss of income from fishing
□ Had to abandon fishing at some point for other economic activities
□ Fishing equipment destroyed or lost
□ Had to be away from home for sometime in search of good fishing sites
□ Loss of membership to fishing cooperative
□ Conflict with other fisher folk over fishing areas
□ Reduced access to food due to loss of revenue from fishing
□ Risk of malnutrition and under-nutrition by family due to reduced
access to fish for a source of protein
□ Other specify
______________________________________________________
89
18a). Do you know any fisher folk who has abandoned fishing due to the effects
of weather and climate variability on fishing activity in your location (Please
tick one)
o Yes
o No
18b). If yes, what are their coping and adaptive strategies? (Please tick all that
apply
□ Farming
□ Small scale business
□ Boat repairing
□ Fish trader
□ Other specify
______________________________________________________
19. Comment on how this has impacted on their livelihood.
_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
___________________________
Thank you very much for your cooperation and may God bless you.
90
APPENDIX II: INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR OFFICIAL FROM
FISHERIES DEPARTMENT
Dear Sir/Madam,
This questionnaire is to help in gathering information on the effects of weather
and climate variability on fishing activities and fishers’ coping and adaptive
strategies in Mbita Division.
The major aim is to identify the effects of changes in Rainfall, Temperature
and Wind in Fishing Activities in Mbita Division.
The answer you will give will go along way into improving the situation posed
by effects of climate variability.
Please respond as honestly as you can to all the Questions.
Feel free to make further comments you may want to. The answers you give
will be treated with utmost confidentiality. You do not have to write your name
anywhere in the Questionnaire.
Comment on the following in relation to weather and climate variability and
fishing in your area of jurisdiction
(a) Fish catch over the recent past
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
(b) Fishing methods adopted by fisher folk
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
(c) Livelihood activities of the fisher folk
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
91
(d) Fishing range covered by fisher folk
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
(e) Conflicts on fisheries resources
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
92
APPENDIX III: INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR OFFICIAL
FROM METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
Dear Sir/Madam,
This questionnaire is to help in gathering information on the effects of weather
and climate variability on fishing activities and fishers’ coping and adaptive
strategies in Mbita Division.
The major aim is to identify the effects of changes in Rainfall, Temperature
and Wind in Fishing Activities in Mbita Division.
The answer you will give will go along way into improving the situation posed
by effects of climate variability.
Please respond as honestly as you can to all the Questions.
Feel free to make further comments you may want to. The answers you give
will be treated with utmost confidentiality. You do not have to write your name
anywhere in the Questionnaire.
(a)Comment on the weather conditions experienced in the area over the recent
past
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
b) Do the changes in weather conditions have any impact on the lake?
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………
93
APPENDIX IV: RESEARCH BUDGET
S/N
ITEM
1.
PROPOSAL PREPARATION
Printing paper 4 reams @500
Foolscaps 1 ream @ 500
2 pens @25 and 2 pencils @ 20
Photocopy 30 copies 30 pages @ 4
Binding 30 copies @ 100
Sub Total
2.
3.
4.
5.
EQUIPMENT
Digital Camera 12.1 pixel @ 25,000
Memory card 8GB @ 7,200
GPS @ 11,500
Laptop (HP) @ 60,000
1 HP laserJet F4280 printer @ 6,000
Printer cartridge 3 colour & 3BW @ 1,800
Modem @ 3,000 + airtime 8 months @ 1,000
Sub Total
AMOUNT
IN KSHS
2,000.00
500.00
90.00
3,600.00
3,000.00
9,190.00
25,000.00
7,200.00
11,500.00
60,000.00
6,000.00
1,800.00
11,000.00
122,500.00
PILOT SURVEY
Research permit @ 2,000
Photocopy 10 Questionnaire 8 pages @ 4
2 Note books @ 50
2 pens and pencils @ 50
Local travel Mbita-Nairobi @ 1,000
Subsistence for 5 days @ 1,500
Sub Total
2,000.00
320.00
100.00
100.00
4,000.00
7,500.00
14,020.00
FIELD DATA COLLECTION
Questionnaire photocopy 96 questions 8 pages @ 4
Interview guide photocopy 30 guides 1 pg @4
10 pens and 10 pencils @ 45
Field note books 5 @ 50
Communication @ 100
Local travel @ 150
Mbita-Nairobi return 5 trips @ 1,000
Subsistence for 4 field assistants for 30 days@ 500
Sub Total
3,072.00
120.00
450.00
250.00
3,000.00
1,500.00
5,000.00
60,000.00
73,392.00
DATA ANALYSIS
SPSS version 15.0 @ 2,200
Topographical maps 4 @ 150
Subsistence for Scientists
2,200.00
600.00
10,000.00
94
6.
Subsistence for 2 assistants @ 3,000
Subsistence for 1 technical (lab) assistance in map
analysis
Sub Total
2,000.00
20,800.00
THESIS PREPARATION
5 pens @ 25 and 3 pencils @ 10
Foolscaps 4 reams @ 500
Printing paper 10 reams @ 500
Photocopy of 3 copies of 3 drafts 150 pages @ 4
Sub Total
135.00
2,000.00
5,000.00
5,000.00
12,135.00
TOTAL
6,000.00
252,037.00