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EFFECTS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON FISHING ACTIVITIES AND FISHERS’ ADAPTIVE CAPACITY IN MBITA DIVISION - HOMA BAY COUNTY, KENYA By ODHIAMBO TOM MBOYA REG NO C50/CE/11313/08 DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OF ARTS (GEOGRAPHY) IN THE SCHOOL OF HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES OF KENYATTA UNIVERSITY APRIL 2013 ii DECLARATION This thesis is my original work and has not been presented for any degree or award in any university ____________________________ Date__________________ ODHIAMBO TOM MBOYA GEOGRAPHY DEPARTMENT This thesis has been presented for examination with our approval as the university appointed supervisors. DR. CALVINE KAYI Lecturer, Department of Geography KENYATTA UNIVERSITY Signature____________________________ Date__________________ DR. P.M. SINDA Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography KENYATTA UNIVERSITY Signature____________________________ Date__________________ iii DEDICATION This study is dedicated to my best friend, my lovely wife Grace and my children Joy, Arnold and Ammon who continue to believe in me and support me through thick and thin. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to the Almighty God for granting me good health throughout the period of the study. I humbly wish to extend my most sincere gratitude and appreciation to my supervisors; Dr. Calvine Kayi for his tireless assistance, guidance, insight, attention to detail and personal dedication towards the completion of this work and Dr. Sinda for his extremely valuable suggestions, constructive criticisms and input which have enabled me not only to improve the quality of this work but also to complete it. I wish to acknowledge the support I received from officers from Fisheries and Meteorological Departments in Mbita District and their staff and all the fisher-folk who voluntarily participated in the study. I would not forget my colleagues in the masters’ class for their continued encouragement. Thanks to Mr. Michael O. Akoko, The Mbita District Fisheries Officer Mr. Omondi, Mr. Kevin Musyega, Mbita District Development Officer and Mr. Mohammed Onyango for their assistance in data collection. My heartfelt thanks go out to my family, wife Grace, daughter Joy and sons Arnold and Ammon for their patience, support and interest in my work. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ................................................................................................................ ii DEDICATION ................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... v LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... viii LIST OF APPPENDICES .................................................................................................. ix LIST OF ABBREVIATION ............................................................................................... x ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 1 1.1 Background to the Problem........................................................................................... 1 1.2 Statement of the Problem .............................................................................................. 3 1.3 Research Objectives ...................................................................................................... 5 1.3.1 General Objective ...................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 Specific Objectives .................................................................................................... 5 1.4 Research Questions ....................................................................................................... 6 1.5 Significance of the study ............................................................................................... 6 1.6 Justification of the study ............................................................................................... 7 1.7 Scope of the study ......................................................................................................... 8 1.8 Operational Definition of Significant Terms ................................................................ 8 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................ 9 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Climate Change and Variability.................................................................................... 9 2.3 Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on the Fisheries .......................................... 10 2.4 Impacts of Climate Variability on the Livelihood of Fisher folk ............................... 12 2.4.1 Changes in Natural Capital ...................................................................................... 12 2.4.2 Damage to Physical Capital and Reduced Financial Capital ................................... 13 2.4.3 Impact on Human and Social Capital ...................................................................... 14 2.6 Conceptual Framework ............................................................................................... 17 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY ..................................................................... 20 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 20 3.2 Research Design .......................................................................................................... 20 3.3 Area of Study .............................................................................................................. 20 3.4 Types of Data .............................................................................................................. 21 3.5 Study Population ......................................................................................................... 22 3.6 Sample Frame ............................................................................................................. 23 3.7 Sample Size and Sampling Procedure ........................................................................ 23 3.8 Data Collection Techniques ........................................................................................ 25 3.8.1 Primary Data ............................................................................................................ 26 3.8.2 Secondary Data ........................................................................................................ 26 3.9 Data Processing and Analysis ..................................................................................... 27 vi 3.9.1 Qualitative Analysis ................................................................................................. 27 3.9.2 Quantitative Analysis ............................................................................................... 28 CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ................................................. 29 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 29 4.2 Demographic Characteristics of the Respondents ...................................................... 29 4.3 Climatic Trends in Mbita Division between 1992-2011 ............................................. 33 4.3.1 Trend of wind speed for Mbita: 1992-2011 ............................................................. 34 4.3.2 Trend of rainfall changes for Mbita 1992-2011 ....................................................... 36 4.3.3Trend of temperature changes for Mbita 1992-2011 ................................................ 38 4.4 Perception of respondents on whether or not weather and climate variability affect .... fisher-folk and fishing activities ................................................................................. 39 4.5. Effect of weather and climate variability on fisher folks and Fishing Duration ........ 41 4.5.1: Effect of Change in Wind Pattern on fisher folks ................................................... 42 4.5.2 Effect of Change in Rainfall Patterns on Fisher folk ............................................... 45 4.5.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature Pattern on Fisher folk ....................................... 46 4.6 Effect of Climate Variability on Fishing Duration ..................................................... 47 4.7 Effects of seasonal variability of climatic elements on fish catch in Mbita Division . 51 4.7.1 Effect of Change of Wind on Fish Catch ................................................................. 53 4.7.2 Effect of Change in Rainfall on Fish Catch ............................................................. 55 4.7.3 Effect of Change in Temperature on Fish Catch...................................................... 56 4.8 Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on the Choice of Fishing Equipment and Techniques ................................................................................................................. 57 4.8.1 Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on the Choice of Fishing Techniques . 57 4.8.1.1 Effect of Changes in Wind on Choice of Fishing Techniques .............................. 58 4.8.1.2 Effect of Changes in Rainfall on Choice of Fishing Techniques .......................... 59 4.8.1.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature on Fishing Techniques ................................... 60 4.8.2 Effects of weather and climate variability on the Fishing equipment...................... 61 4.8.2.1 Effect of Changes in Wind on Choice of Fishing Equipment............................... 62 4.8.2.2 Effect of Changes in Rainfall on Fishing Equipment ........................................... 63 4.8.2.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature on Fishing Equipment .................................... 64 4.9 Coping and adaptive strategies of fishing community in Mbita Division .................. 65 4.10: Coping and adaptive strategies of fishing community in Mbita Division ............... 68 CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMENDATIONS .. 70 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 70 5.2. Summary of Findings ................................................................................................. 70 5.3. Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 73 5.4: Recommendations ...................................................................................................... 73 5.5: Suggestion for Further Research ................................................................................ 74 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 76 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1: Nature and Types of Data Collected ................................................................ 22 Table 3.2: Fisher folk Population Sampling Procedure .................................................... 25 Table 4.1: Socio-Economic & Demographic characteristics of the respondents .............. 33 Table 4.2: Analysis of wind data from 1992 to 2011........................................................ 36 Table 4.3: Analysis of rainfall data from 1992 to 2011 .................................................... 37 Table 4.4: Analysis of temperature data from 1992 to 2011 ............................................ 39 Table 4.5: Effects of weather and Climate Variability on fisher folk ............................... 42 Table 4.6: Effects of Wind on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for Fishing ................. 45 Table 4.7: Effects of Rainfall on Number of fisher folk Going Out for Fishing .............. 46 Table 4.8: Effects of Temperature on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for Fishing ...... 47 Table 4.9: Effect of weather and Climate Variability on Fishing Duration ...................... 48 Table 4.10: Effects of seasonal weather and climate variability on fish catch ................. 53 Table 4.11: Effects of Wind on Amount of Fish Catch .................................................... 54 Table 4.12: Effects of Rainfall on Amount of Fish Catch ................................................ 56 Table 4.13: Effects of Temperature on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for Fishing .... 57 Table 4.14: Effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing ................. techniques....................................................................................................... 58 Table 4.15: Effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing .............. equipments ..................................................................................................... 61 Table 4.16: Effects of Wind on Fishing Equipment and Techniques ............................... 63 Table 4.17: Effects of Rainfall on Fishing Equipment and Techniques ........................... 64 Table 4.18: Effects of Temperature on Fishing Equipment and Techniques .................... 65 Table 4.19: Impact of weather and climate variability on fisher folk livelihood.............. 67 Table 4.20: Coping and adaptive strategies apart from fishing ........................................ 69 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Conceptual Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on Fishing Activities and the Fishers Coping and Adaptive Strategies .................................................................................................. 19 Figure 3.1: Map of the Study Area ................................................................................... 21 Figure 4.1: Monthly trend of wind data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ........................................ 35 Figure 4.2: Yearly trend of wind data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ........................................... 35 Figure 4.3: Monthly trend of rainfall data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ..................................... 37 Figure 4.4: Yearly trend of rainfall data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ........................................ 37 Figure 4.5: Monthly trend of temperature data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ............................. 38 Figure 4.6: Yearly trend of temperature data for Mbita: 1992-2011 ................................ 39 Figure 4.7: Perception of the Respondents on Whether or not Weather and Climate ......... Variability and Reduction of Lake Water Levels Affect fisher folk............... 41 Figure 4.8: Fish Catch Trends in Mbita: 1997-2010 ......................................................... 52 Figure 4.9: Effect of weather and climate variability on fisher folk’s livelihood ............. 66 ix LIST OF APPPENDICES APPENDIX I: FISHER FOLK QUESTIONNAIRE ........................................................ 84 APPENDIX II: INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR OFFICIAL FROM FISHERIES ................... DEPARTMENT ....................................................................................... 90 APPENDIX III: INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR OFFICIAL FROM METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ..................................................................................... 92 APPENDIX IV: RESEARCH BUDGET ......................................................................... 93 x LIST OF ABBREVIATION ENSO : El Nino Southern Oscillation FAO : Food and Agriculture Organization ICIPE : International Centre for Insect Physiology and Ecology IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISCC : International Symposium on Climate Change SEDAWOG : Socio-Economic Data Working Group of the Lake Victoria Fisheries Research Project UNESCO : United Nation Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization WHO : World Health Organization xi ABSTRACT Fisher-folk depend for a major part of their livelihood on natural resources whose distribution and productivity are known to be influenced by climate dynamics. Research has shown that small-scale fisher-folk in the developing countries are more vulnerable to climate variability due to their high reliance on fisheries and poor adaptive capacity. However most studies so far have concentrated on climate-driven changes in ocean productivity and its impact on fish distribution and production particularly in relation to oceanic regime changes of large-scale industrial fisheries and have not considered effects on the fishing activities and the fishers coping and adaptive strategies, especially in freshwater systems such as in Lake Victoria. It is against this background that the study sought to investigate the effects of weather and climate variability on the fishing activities and the fishers coping and adaptive strategies in Mbita Division, Homa bay County, Kenya. The study was guided by the premise that weather and climate variability can change the natural, physical and financial capital of the small-scale fisher-folk. It can also have an impact on human and social capital. The main objectives of the study were to find out the effects of weather and climate variability; specifically changes in temperature, rainfall and wind on the fisher-folk and the fishing duration, to investigate the effects of the seasonal variability of climatic elements on the fish catch, to assess the effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing techniques and equipment being utilized by fisher-folk and to establish the coping and adaptive strategies of the fishing community in Mbita Division. To realize the purpose of the study, a descriptive survey design was adopted. The required data was collected from 343 randomly selected fisher folk from four locations in Mbita division, 1 official from the Fisheries Department and 1 official from Meteorological Department who were purposively sampled to provide information on various issues on weather and climate variability, fishing and other economic activities. Secondary data collection was done through review of documented information such as topographical maps, documents on weather and climate variability, and fishing from Fisheries and Meteorological departments, while primary data was collected through observations and face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire. The data generated was edited, coded and entered into Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Data analysis was done using qualitative methods such as content analysis and quantitative analysis using frequencies, percentages and means and the summary presented using tables and graphs. The study established that climate variability particularly strong winds and storms, drought and high temperatures have an impact on fishing activities such as reduction in fish catch, long duration of fishing, loss of fishing gear, change in fishing techniques, change in coping strategies, effect on health of fisher folk and even loss of life. The study therefore concludes that weather and climate variability affects fishing activities in Mbita Division. Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that the government and other stakeholders should help enhance resilience of fishing communities by supporting existing adaptive livelihood strategies and management institutions that are designed to support adaptation to climate change and variability. The fisher folk should invest in improved vessel/stability and safety, harness opportunities brought about by climate change and diversify their livelihood activities. xii 1 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background to the Problem Fisher-folk depend for a major part of their livelihood on natural resources whose distribution and productivity are known to be influenced by climate dynamics (Allison, Adger, Badjeck, Brown, Conway and Dulvy, 2005). According to Abubakar, Tahir and Olisa (2009), climate is now one of the major phenomena threatening lives and humanity in general since the beginning of industrial revolution. Perry, Ommer, Allison, Badjeck, Barange and Hamilton (2009) points out that the anthropogenic climate variability is already affecting aquatic ecosystems and the human societies that depend on them. It is an undisputed fact that the impacts of climate variability can be particularly severe in societies where people are highly dependent on natural resources for their livelihood and also experience the impacts of extreme climate events such as floods, drought and other sources of stress to their livelihoods such as disease, conflict and increased population pressure (Goulden, 2005). According to Allison, Perry, Badjeck, Adger, Brown and Conway (2009), small-scale fisher folk in the developing countries are more vulnerable to climate variability due to their high reliance on fisheries and poor adaptive capacity. However most studies so far have concentrated on climatedriven changes in ocean productivity and its impact on fish distribution and production particularly in relation to oceanic regime changes of large-scale 2 industrial fisheries (Klyastorin, 2001) and have not considered effects of weather and climate variability especially changes in temperature, rainfall and wind on the fishing activities and the coping and adaptive strategies of the fisher folk communities, especially in freshwater systems (Badjeck, Menjo, Wolff and Lange, 2009) such as in Lake Victoria. The communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa mainly derive their livelihoods from the Lake. Most of the fisher folk have no alternative occupation apart from fishing (Omwega, 2000). According to UNESCO (2008), about 3 million people earn their living directly or indirectly from the fishing industry in Lake Victoria. However, the lake is highly vulnerable to weather and climate variability especially due to its shallowness, limited river inflow, demand on outflow and large surface area relative to its volume (Crandall, 2009). The impacts on the livelihoods activities of communities around it are likely to be severe due to extreme climate events such as floods and drought as well as the high population density. Lake Victoria in the recent past has visibly changed in its expanse, with its water level reducing every season despite the increased El-nino effect of 1997 and 2009 in East Africa (Namwebe, 2009). According to Minawaka, Sonye, Dida, Futami and Kanoke (2008), the water level of Lake Victoria has fallen more than 1.5 metres since 1998 revealing a narrow strip of land along its shore. This is mainly attributed to the impacts of weather and climate variability. One of the results has been increasingly dwindling fish catch. According to Hecky, Mugidde, Ramlal, Talbot and Kling 3 (2010), Lake Victoria has endured multiple stresses over the past century including population growth, increased cultivation of land, meteorological variability, resource extraction, intensive fishing, introduction of exotic species and more recently global warming. There are compelling reasons both economic and nutritional for carrying out a research on the effect of weather and climate variability on fishing around Lake Victoria and particularly so since research have shown that most fisher folk have no alternative occupation apart from fishing (Omwega, 2000). This study examined the effects of weather and climate variability, specifically, changes in temperature, rainfall and wind pattern on fishing activities and coping and adaptive strategies of the fisher folk in Mbita Division of Lake Victoria region, Homa-Bay County. 1.2 Statement of the Problem According to Badjeck, Allison, Halls and Dulvy (2009), there is increasing concern over the consequences of global warming for food security and livelihoods of the world’s 36 million fisher folk and nearly 1.5 billion consumers who rely on fish for more than 20% of their dietary animal protein. With mounting evidence of the impacts of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, the resulting impacts on fisheries livelihoods are likely to be significant, but remain a neglected area in climate adaptation policy. Most research on climate variability and fisheries have however in the past focused on documenting trends and fluctuations in fish abundance and distribution, particularly in relation to oceanic regime changes and the major pelagic fish 4 stocks of upwelling zones that are the target of large-scale industrial fisheries (Klyastorin, 2001). Although there are a number of studies that have investigated the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the fisheries dependent community to climate change, there has been little directed analysis at the local scale on how weather and climate variability is affecting the lives and livelihoods of the tropical majority of small-scale fisher folk, who make up more than 90% of the world’s fishers and fish trade (Badjeck et al. 2009). Yet according to Allison (2009), climate variability adversely affects societies whose people are highly dependent on natural resources for their livelihood such as fishing, crop farming, animal husbandry, horticulture and forestry among others. Lake Victoria provides the ideal circumstances against which to study the effects of weather and climate variability on the fishing activities of the small-scale fisher folk. The lake’s shallowness, limited river inflow, demands on outflow, and large surface area relative to its volume make it highly vulnerable to climate variability (Crandall, 2009). Changes in wind patterns, occurrence of severe storms, changes in temperature and reduction of the lake level as a result of weather and climate variability are likely to impact on fish production, species composition, distribution, safety and efficiency of fishing. These would also have significant effects on the livelihood activities of the neighbouring fishing community. In Mbita Division where majority of the fisher folk are small scale, weather and climate variability especially changes in temperature, rainfall and wind patterns make the fisher folk more vulnerable because of heavy reliance in fisheries and poor adaptive capabilities. It is against this backdrop that this study sought to 5 examine the role played by weather and climate variability, specifically changes in temperature, rainfall and wind on fishing activities and the coping and adaptive strategies of the fisher folk in Mbita Division of Homa bay County. 1.3 Research Objectives 1.3.1 General Objective The general objective of this study was to determine the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing and livelihood activities in Mbita Division, Homa bay County. The study specifically examined how changes in temperature, rainfall and wind impact on the fisher folk, fish catch, fishing facilities and choice of fishing techniques. It also examined the alternative livelihood activities of the fisher folk. 1.3.2 Specific Objectives The study sought to address the following objectives: i. To find out the effects of weather and climate variability; specifically changes in temperature, rainfall and wind on the fisher-folk and fishing duration in Mbita Division. ii. To investigate the effects of the seasonal variability of climatic elements on the fish catch in Mbita Division. iii. To assess the effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing techniques and equipment being utilized by fisher-folk in Mbita Division. 6 iv. To establish the coping and adaptive strategies of the fishing community in Mbita Division. 1.4 Research Questions The following research questions were addressed in this study: (i) What are the effects of weather and climate variability, specifically changes in temperature, rainfall and wind on fisher-folk and fishing duration in Mbita Division? (ii) What is the effect of seasonal variation of weather on the fish catch in Mbita Division? (iii) Does the effects of weather and climate variability influence the choice of fishing techniques and equipment utilized by fisher folk in Mbita Division? (iv) What are the coping and adaptive strategies of the fishing community in Mbita Division? 1.5 Significance of the study The study is significant in that, it will contribute to the understanding of the impact of weather and climate variability on the livelihood of the small scale fishing communities. It has revealed the risks posed to fisher-folk by the impact of weather and climate variability that need to be addressed by the government, policy makers, and the wider society and recommended the need to come up with alternative sources of livelihood. The mechanisms by which individuals and societies respond to weather and climate variability can also 7 provide valuable insights into how communities affected in the future might adapt and cope to the impacts of weather and climate variability. Additionally, the study contributes to the existing empirical body of knowledge on the impact of weather and climate variability on the livelihood of peasants. Responding to climate change requires a multi-level, interdisciplinary and integrated response as well as public participation. Knowledge of how fisherfolk perceive and understand the impact of weather and climate variability on their livelihood is important as an indication of the potential for change in behaviour to address the problem of climate change and potentials for mitigation and adaptation strategies. 1.6 Justification of the study Mbita Division of Homa bay County is predominantly occupied by small scale fishing community. The area is not only characterized by rocky surface but also generally dry thus making it not very conducive for agricultural practices such as crop farming and cattle keeping. Fishing remains the most predominant economic activity. However, the small scale fisher-folk are more vulnerable to climate variability due to their poor adaptive capacity (Allison, 2009). The study on the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing activities and the coping and adaptive strategies of the fishing community in Mbita Division was a response to the concern on how the small scale fisherfolk are affected by weather and climate variability and how they are coping. 8 1.7 Scope of the study This study covered Mbita Division, in Homa bay County where fishing is the main economic activity and source of livelihood. Although there are other economic activities such as agriculture affected by weather and climate variability, this study focused only on fishing. As Allison, et al. (2009) points out that small-scale fisher-folk in the developing countries are more vulnerable to climate variability due to their high reliance on fisheries and poor adaptive capacity. The study considered only the effects of three elements of climate, that is temperature, rainfall and wind as representative of other elements. Although the focus was on all fisher folk within the division, the study did not cover all the fisher folk due to their large number, thus sampling procedures were employed. This was necessary for an in-depth analysis of the effects of weather and climate variability on the fishing and livelihood activities. In considering secondary data on weather conditions, number of fisher folk going for fishing, amount of fish catch and the fishing equipment and techniques, the study considered the period between 1992 to 2011. 1.8 Operational Definition of Significant Terms Climate Variability: Changes in Temperature, Wind and Rainfall between 1992 to 2011 Livelihood Activities: The capabilities, assets and activities required for means of living. Fisher folk: Those who engage and benefit directly from fishing. (Those who fish as an occupation process and sell fish). Fishing Activities: Activities that involve going after fish and selling. 9 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction This chapter gives a summary of relevant literature used to conceptualize the research theme. The review first gives an over-view of climate change and climate variability, then proceeds to present the impacts of weather and climate variability on fisheries, related studies, and finally the conceptual framework. 2.2 Climate Change and Variability Climate is the average weather experienced over a long period. This includes weather elements such as temperature, wind, humidity, and air pressure and rainfall patterns. Climate change was defined by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) Fourth Assessment Report as “change in the state of the climate that can be identified (such as by using statistical test) by changes in mean and/or variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period typically decades or longer.” Climate includes patterns of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind and seasons. "Climate change" affects more than just a change in the weather; it refers to seasonal changes over a long period of time (IPCC, 2007). These climate patterns play a fundamental role in shaping natural ecosystems, and the human economies and cultures that depend on them. Human activities too like the emission of green house gases have resulted into the Earth getting warmed by 0.74°C over the last hundred years. Around 0.4°C of this warming has occurred since the 1970s (WHO, 2010). Climate is now one of the major phenomena threatening lives 10 and humanity in general since the beginning of industrial revolution (Abubakar, Tahir and Olisa, 2009). Climate variability goes hand in hand with climate change. The term climate variability or climatic variability denotes the natural characteristic of climate that manifests itself within the changes of climate with regard to time. The degree of climate variability is often described by the dissimilarity between long-term statistics of the meteorological elements that are calculated for different periods. This also means that the measure of climatic variability is also the same as the measure of climatic change. On the other hand, climate change has a much distinct meaning compared to climate variability. It is the change within the statistical distribution of the weather over certain periods of time. This can range from centuries, decades or even millions of years (IPCC, 2007). 2.3 Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on the Fisheries Climate variability can impact fisheries through multiple ways. Changes in water temperature, precipitation, aquatic variables such as wind velocity, wave action and rise in water level, can bring about significant ecological and biological changes to marine and freshwater ecosystems and the resultant fish population (Cheung, Lam, Sarmiento, Kearney, Watson and Pauly, 2009; Brander, 2009; Drinkewater, Bearugrand, Kaeriyama, Kim, Ottersen and Perry, 2009), directly impacting on people whose livelihoods depend on those ecosystems. Extreme weather events may also disrupt fishing operations and land-based infrastructure (Westlund, Poulain, Bage, and van Anrooy , 2007) 11 while fluctuations of fishery production and other natural resources can have an impact on livelihoods strategies and outcomes of fishing communities (Coulthard, 2008; Iwasaki, Razafindrabe and Shaw, 2009). Indirect impacts arising from adaptive strategies pursued by different groups may also be significant and compound the effects of direct climate impacts on fish production and dependent livelihoods. For example, according to Badjeck et al. (2009), changing patterns of precipitation and increasing frequency of extreme flooding events in river basins may prompt adaptive strategies by the agriculture sector that focus upon the construction of more flood control, drainage and irrigation schemes. These structures are likely, to further exacerbate the direct adverse impacts of climate variability on fisheries. Studies suggest that fish production can be 50% lower inside flood control schemes compared to outside largely due to diminished recruitment of highvalue migratory whitefish species (Halls, Hoggarth and Debnath, 1998; and Halls, Payne, Alam and Barman, 2008). In Malawi’s Lake Chilwa, it is the combination of a series of droughts and conversion of fringing wetlands for rice cultivation that are putting severe pressures on water resources and fisheries (Allison et al. 2007). The “direct” effect of climate variability on hydrological regimes and ecosystems may therefore be enhanced in these situations. The current study specifically looked at effects of changes in temperature, rainfall and wind on the fishing and livelihood activities of small scale fisher-folk in Mbita Division and their adaptive strategies with a view to suggest sustainable response methods to the threat of weather and climate variability by the community. 12 Faced with declining yields, income and food security, fishers may seek alternative resources. For example, in West Africa, when coastal fisheries resources are scarce, fisher folk adopt alternative livelihood strategies including hunting for bushmeat (Brashares, Arcese, Sam, Coppolillo, Sinclair and Balmford, 2004). Despite variability in climate and vulnerability of the fisher-folk community in Mbita Division, no systematic studies have been carried out to determine the impact of weather and climate variability on their fishing activities and how they are coping. This study therefore sought to establish the impact of weather and climate variability on the fishing activities of the fisher-folk and the coping and adaptive strategies of the fishing community in Mbita Division, Homa bay County, Kenya. 2.4 Impacts of Climate Variability on the Livelihood of Fisher folk 2.4.1 Changes in Natural Capital Changes in the availability of fish products (natural capital) can affect total revenues and harvesting costs (net revenues), resulting in greater costs in managing and accessing natural capital (Badjeck et al. 2009). Reduction of net revenue which arises from decline in stock abundance and subsequently catches is commonly cited as a consequence of climate variability and change (Mahon, 2002; Lum, 2002; Knapp, Livingston and Tyler, 1998). According to Trotman, Gordon, Hutchinson, Singh and McRae-smith (2009), reductions in coral cover in Caribbean basin as a result of climate variability, is predicted to diminish annual fish production by between 30-40% by 2015, equivalent to a net revenue loss of between US$95 million and USD$140 million for more 13 than 100,000 fishers. Other natural resources upon which fishing communities depend may also be impacted by weather and climate variability. Bridges (2009) observes that sea level rise and extreme events like storm surges can lower the availability and quality of freshwater sources to fishing communities in addition to disrupting fishing operations. The above studies have mostly focused on the impact of climate variability on large scale ocean driven fishing productivity. The current study looked at the impact of weather and climate variability on small-scale fish production of the fisher-folk community in Mbita Division, the focus being on the variability of the fish catch in the face of changes in temperature, rainfall and wind. 2.4.2 Damage to Physical Capital and Reduced Financial Capital Climate variability through sea-level rise, storm and flood frequency, according to Badjeck et al. (2009), can impact on the physical capital of households or of entire communities, leading not only to decreased harvesting capacity but also to the disruption of public infrastructure and services that support livelihoods. More specifically, storm and severe weather events can destroy or severely damage productive assets and infrastructure such as landing sites, boats and fishing gear (Jallow, Toure, Barrow and Matheiu, 1999). Aiken, Bacon and Mooyoung (1992), note that during Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, the Jamaican fisher-folk lost 90% of their fishing traps resulting in loss of revenue, high cost of repairs, as well as the ability of the fisher folk resuming their fishing activities promptly. The current study was designed to 14 find out whether the small-scale fisher-folk in Mbita division have suffered similar, additional or different loses due to weather and climate variability given their vulnerability. 2.4.3 Impact on Human and Social Capital Climate variability and change through rise in water levels, storm and flood frequency can impact on the human and social capital of a community. Badjeck et al. (2009) points out that different dimension of human capital, ranging from safety-at-sea to food security are also affected by climate variability. The loss of lives, for example, can be the most dramatic impact of extreme climatic events on human capital, affecting not only surviving household members but also potentially disrupting economic and social activities. Safety at sea and injuries are often associated with natural disasters linked to climatic stresses such as floods and hurricanes, reducing the physical capabilities of fisher folk to pursue their livelihoods. Additionally, loss of revenues can be the result of closure or reduction of fisheries activities during weather anomalies (Lum, 2002; Siung-Chang and Lum 2001; and Nagy, Bidegain, Caffera, Blixen, Ferrari, and Lagomarsino, 2006). In terms of health effects, it has been shown that the El Nino cycle in certain areas is associated with changes in the risk of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, such as malaria and dengue (Kovats, Bouma, Shakoor, Worrall and Haines, 2003). The risk of malaria is highly sensitive to El Nino in South America, Central Asia and Africa, areas where the majority of small-scale 15 fisher folk are located (Allison et al. 2009). Changes in food availability and in food affordability occasioned by climatic disturbances also add an additional health burden to households and communities. In a scenario of decreased catches due to climate variability events, the risk of malnutrition and undernutrition for communities highly dependent on fish for a source of protein (Ogutu-Ohwayo, Heckey, Cohen and Kufman, 1997), combined with changes in diet are some possible effects. Reductions in fishery-dependent incomes can also reduce the ability to purchase store-bought food during periods of natural resource scarcity (Callaway, Earmer, Edwarden, Jack, Marcy and Olrun, 1998). Climate variability according to Badjeck et al. (2009) can also alter the local institutions that form the basis of resource management, specifically property rights. At the local scale, it could be argued that changes in abundance, patterns and displacement of fisheries stock could also lead to conflicts over property rights and resource access. For instance the Peruvian “scallop booms” in Pisco triggered a flow of opportunistic migrants from all over the country wanting to share the bonanza of the El Nino event (Meltzoff, Lemons, Asfour, GuardiaMontonya and Gonzales, 2005). In Southern Africa, increasing frequencies of droughts are leading to greater variability in lake levels and river flows, affecting lakeshore and river floodplain livelihoods that incorporate fishing (Conway, Allison, Felstead and Goulden, 2005). While borrowing from above studies, the current study narrowed down only on direct impacts such as loss of life, sickness due to injuries, and loss of fishing 16 gear and duration of fishing in order to establish immediate effects that may lead to long term impacts such as conflict and change in diet. Climate variability can lead to declining yield in fishery resources, income and food security. In West Africa, when the coastal fishery resources are scarce, the fisher folk adapt to various alternative livelihood strategies such as hunting for bush meat (Brashares, 2004). While borrowing from the above study, the current study narrowed down on the adaptive and coping strategies of the fresh water fisher folk in Mbita Division of Homa Bay County. 2.5 Studies on the Impact of Climate Variability on the Fishing Activities In a study on the impact of climate variability on the Tuna economy of Seychelles, Robinson, Guillotrean, Jimenez-Toribio, Lantz, Dorizo, Gerry, and Marsac (2009), noted that the Tuna industry experienced a fluctuated catch of 58%, 34% and 60% respectively in 1998 the year of a strong warming event in the western Indian Ocean. The Patterns in Tuna Purse Seine fishing were therefore substantially modified by the strong climate oscillations. While the above study focused on the impact of climate variability on Tuna industry, which is a large scale industry within the oceanic regime, the current study focused on the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing activities and how this affects the lives and livelihoods of the small-scale fisher folk, in Mbita Division of Lake Victoria region in Kenya. A study by Sun (2006) on the effects of El Nino on the Mackerel purse-seine fishery harvests in Taiwan also revealed that the landings of mackerel fell by 17 nearly 50% following the 1997/1998 El Nino event which resulted to sea surface temperatures changes. This study focused on the El Nino phenomenon as an aspect of climate change, however, the current study specifically narrowed on the effects of changes in temperature, rainfall and wind pattern on fishing and their effects on the livelihood activities of fisher folk in Mbita Division of Lake Victoria region in Kenya. In a study on the land use and climate change effects on livelihood, sediment and carbon loading in the Lake Tanganyika region, Majaliwa (2009) found out that the livelihood of the people in the Lake Tanganyika basin of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have changed significantly due to demographic pressure, poor land management and climate change and/or variability. While borrowing from this study, the current study narrowed down to the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing and fisheries resources among the fisher folk in Mbita Division of Lake Victoria Region, Kenya. 2.6 Conceptual Framework The basic relationship explored in this study was the effect of weather and climate variability on fishing activities and the fishers coping and adaptive strategies in Mbita Division of Lake Victoria region, Kenya. Climate variability manifests through direct and indirect pathways whose importance varies depending on the type of ecosystem and fishery. In Inland fishery, for example, where the majority of fishers are small scale, weather and climate variability impact through ways such as changes in rainfall pattern, occurrence of storms, changes in wind pattern, changes in temperature, changes in lake 18 levels, increased flooding event, and drought among others (Badjeck, et al., 2009). These changes have effects on the production ecology, fishing operations, safety and efficiency of fishing infrastructure (Figure 2.1). These effects impact on fish species composition, production, and yield, risk of health and life of fisher folk, and loss and damage to livelihood assets. Therefore, the fisher folk will have to seek adaptation and mitigation strategies in order to sustain their livelihood. 19 Figure 2.1: Conceptual Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on Fishing Activities and the Fishers’ Coping and Adaptive Strategies IMPACTS Changes in Lake levels Changes in production ecology EFFECTS Species composition, production and yield Changes in fishing operations Impact on Livelihood strategies, adaptation and mitigation Safety and efficiency of fishing infrastructure Risk of health and life Loss/damage to livelihood assets CLIMATE VARIABILITY Changes in rainfall amounts/patterns Temperature changes Evaporation Source: Adapted and Modified from Badjeck, et al. (2009) COPING STRATEGIES Sustainable coping and adaptive strategies Fish farming Support of existing adaptive livelihood strategies Investment in improved fishing vessels 19 Wind pattern changes Storm severity Storm frequency Drought PATHWAYS 20 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction In this chapter, the methods that were used to collect and analyze data are discussed. The major sections include the research design, types of data, sampling methods, methods of data collection, data processing and analysis. 3.2 Research Design The research design that was adopted in this study was descriptive survey. Descriptive surveys are designed to obtain pertinent and precise information concerning the current status of phenomena and whenever possible to draw valid general conclusions from the facts. It seeks to identify and describe phenomena (Lokesh, 1984). Survey also aims at obtaining information which can be analyzed, patterns extracted and comparisons made (Bell, 1993), hence its choice for this study. 3.3 Area of Study This study was carried out in Mbita Division of Homa bay County, Kenya among the fisher folk. Mbita Division was chosen because it is one of the areas in the county where the main source of livelihood is fishing and therefore any changes in the lake occasioned by weather and climate variability are likely to have an impact on the fisher folk’s livelihood. Figure 3.1 shows the location of the study area. According to the 2009 population and housing census, Mbita Division has a total population of 62,974 and a density of 296 21 persons per square kilometre. The main economic activities in the division are fishing and agriculture. Figure 3.1: Map of the Study Area Source: Suba District 2004-2008 Development Plan 3.4 Types of Data This study made use of both secondary and primary types of data. Secondary data was got from documentary sources, while the primary data was collected from fieldwork. These data (documentary and field) were used to examine the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing activities and the coping and adaptive strategies of the fishing community of Mbita Division. Table 3.1 22 describes the type of data and the research variables employed and their methods of analysis. Table 3.1: Nature and Types of Data Collected Data collected Weather and Climate variability Nature of data Primary and secondary Effects of weather Primary and climate variability on fisher folk and fishing duration Effects of seasonal Primary variability of weather on fish catch Effects of climate variability on choice of fishing techniques Primary and secondary Coping and adaptive strategies Primary Source: Field Work Variables used Method of analysis Average changes in temperature, rainfall and wind between 1992 to 2011 Responses based on structured questionnaires Quantitative using means/averages from the recorded measurements Quantitative based on questionnaires, informal discussions and observations. Average changes in temperature, rainfall and wind during different seasons and amount of fish catch during the different seasons (between 1992 to 2011) Average changes in temperature, rainfall and wind and effects on choice of fishing technique or gear Quantitative using percentage, averages based on the recorded measurements of weather elements and amount of fish catch Different sources of livelihood apart from fishing activities (farming, business, boat repairing, boda boda operator and grazing) Quantitative based on percentage changes in techniques and qualitative analysis based on the explanation on reasons for the changes from discussions and interview guide Quantitative using percentage and qualitative analysis of questionnaire, interviews, informal discussions, observations 23 3.5 Study Population The target population was fisher folk in Mbita Division. More information on data on weather changes, fish landing and alternative livelihood was sought from key informants including officials from the Fisheries and Meteorological Departments. 3.6 Sample Frame The respondents comprised fisher folk from Mbita Division and officials from Fisheries and Meteorological Departments. The fisher folk were drawn from the four locations which make up Mbita Division. These are Rusinga East, Rusinga West, Gembe East and Gembe West. A spatial sampling frame covering all the locations was preferred so that the samples are representative of the full range of location variability. 3.7 Sample Size and Sampling Procedure A sample size is part of the target population with similar characteristics under study and which is procedurally selected to represent it. Sampling techniques describe the strategies which are used to obtain respondents from the target population (Oso and Onen, 2005). There are 3617 registered fisher folks in Mbita Division with a population size of 4423 spread across Rusinga East, Rusinga West, Gembe East and Gembe West locations. Thus the targeted population was 3617(Records from Mbita District Fisheries Office). The sample size was calculated based on Fisher et al. (2007) as shown below. 24 According to Fisher et al. (2007), at 95% confidence level and 50% target population assumed to have characteristics of interest with a Z-statistic of 1.96, sample size was calculated using the formula: n= N 1+Np2 Where n= desired sample size N=population sample p=0.05 n= 3617 1+3617(0.052) = 360 Therefore, 360 respondents were interviewed for the information intended for this study. A spatial sampling frame was preferred so that the samples are representative of the full range of location variability. In selecting samples from each location, the respective sample sizes were done using proportional allocation procedure, where the larger the number of fisher folk from the sampled location (Table 3.2), the larger the sample proportion for that location (Ott and Larson, 1992). Systematic random sampling was used to pick the fisher folk. A list of registered fisher folk in Mbita Division was obtained from the Fisheries Department. Sampling involved taking every 10th name on the list from each location, the starting point was selected randomly. Random sampling removes biasness on the researcher and thus provides a good representation of the target population. It also enables hypotheses to be scientifically tested. Officials from Fisheries and Meteorological Departments 25 were purposefully selected to provide pertinent information related to the research from their areas of specialization. Table 3.2: Fisher folk Population Sampling Procedure Location Population Percentage Weight Rusinga East 835 23.1 Sample Size Rusinga West 983 27.2 98 Gembe East 506 14.0 50 Gembe West 1293 35.7 129 Total 3617 100 360 83 Source: Records from Mbita District Fisheries Office However, out of a total of 360 questionnaires sent, 343 were returned for analysis yielding a response rate of 92.3%. This response rate was achieved as a result of proper co-ordination with the field assistants, the fisher folk and sensitizing the community on the importance and purpose of the study. 3.8 Data Collection Techniques Information was collected from documented sources for secondary data, and fieldwork for primary data. Documentary sources included Topographical maps, documents on climate variability from Meteorological Department, number of fishers and amount of fish catch and fishing equipment and techniques from Fisheries Department. Fieldwork data was obtained from observation and respondents who included fisher folk and officials of the Fisheries and Meteorological Departments. 26 3.8.1 Primary Data Primary data was collected using several procedures. Observations were made on various economic activities carried out in the area and information recorded in a record sheet. A structured questionnaire was self administered to the fisher folk; both closed-ended and open-ended questions were asked (appendix x). The closed ended questions were used to solicit information from respondents on matters such as socio-economic characteristic, economic activities, seasonal variations on fish catch, fishing duration, fishing techniques and equipment. Open ended questions were used to capture details on opinions such as fisher folk assessment of the effect of weather and climate variability and the description of livelihood changes. Before the final version of the questionnaire was administered, a pilot survey was conducted. This was done in order to pretest the questionnaire to ensure that the questions included are clear, understandable and would yield relevant information. Following the pilot study, various changes were made to add or and omit information from the questionnaires. Interview guides were used to gather information from one official from Fisheries and one official from Meteorological Departments. The interview guides assisted in gathering data on various issues such as variability of weather elements, fishing and other economic activities. 3.8.2 Secondary Data Secondary sources included documents from Meteorological and Fisheries Departments in Mbita Division. These included data on weather patterns 27 (temperature, wind and rainfall) over the past 20 years (1992-2011), amount of fish catch, fishing techniques and equipment and economic activities in the area. 3.9 Data Processing and Analysis Data obtained from various sources were processed before analysis. The data were edited, coded and entered for analysis in the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Summary tables were then prepared to facilitate recording and further analysis. 3.9.1 Qualitative Analysis Qualitative data was analyzed using qualitative analysis methods. Qualitative analysis has a strong emphasis on describing the world as different observers perceive it (Dey, 1993). Paton (1990), points out that there is no one kind of qualitative data analysis, but rather a variety of approaches related to the different perspectives and purposes of researchers. This study used content analysis approach as one of the qualitative methods. This helped in deriving useful detailed information from secondary sources and interview schedules. The data was classified into different categories to lay the conceptual foundation for analysis. These classifications were guided by research objectives and links between the data were identified through key patterns that emerged. 28 3.9.2 Quantitative Analysis Data obtained through the questionnaire were analyzed using quantitative methods. The data from the questionnaire were subjected to computation of simple statistics such as frequencies, totals, percentages, tabulations and crosstabulations and presented in form of tables, graphs and charts. 29 CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 4.1 Introduction In this chapter the results of the present investigation are presented and discussed. The chapter is divided into subsections where general characteristics of the respondents such as age, gender and level of education are analyzed. The data is also analyzed around key objectives; effects of weather and climate variability, specifically changes in temperature, rainfall and wind on fisher folk in Mbita Division, effects of seasonal variation of weather on the fish catch, effect of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing techniques utilized by fisher folk and are the alternative sources of livelihood activities in Mbita Division. 4.2 Demographic Characteristics of the Respondents The demographic characteristics of interest in this study included, gender, age, marital status, education, source of income, income per month and the number of people living in the household. The studies found out that majority of the respondents 94.8% were male as compared to 5.2% who were female. Lwenya, Mbiligi, Luomba and Yongo (2009) found out that in Kenya an average of 2.2 male and 1.2 female per household are involved in fisheries activities along the beaches of Lake Victoria which complements the findings of this study. The fisheries of Lake Victoria have a clear division of labour. The men catch the fish while women dominate post-harvest activities such as fish processing and 30 trade. Males are also dominantly employed as boat crew and fish factory agents and transporters of fish. An analysis by age revealed that the majority 50.2% of the respondents were aged between 21-30 years. Thirty three percent were aged between 31-40 years, 9.3% of the respondents were below 21 years of age, 6.1% were between 41-50 years old while only 1.2% were above 51 years old. This implies that majority of the fisher folks are in the age bracket of 21-40 years. This age group is generally the most economically productive since they have the energy to undertake tedious activities like fishing and are responsible for taking care of the young and old age groups. These findings are similar to those of Lwenya et al. (2009) whose findings showed that the average age of fishers in Kenya was 36.0 years for men and 35.6 years for female while crew members are relatively young (about 80% being less than 35 years old) and most were school dropouts entering the fishing activity for the first time. Similarly a survey conducted by SEDAWOG II (1999) also indicated that fishers were dominantly male and most of them were in the age range of 21 to 45 years. There was a marked difference in education status of the respondents as most of the respondents (74.4%) had attained primary education, 23.0% attained secondary education, and another 0.6% had tertiary/middle college education while 2.0% reportedly had no formal education. This is similar to Lwenya et al. (2009) findings that both men and women in each country (Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania) tended to be poorly-educated, with a high proportion being primary school drop outs, especially amongst women. SEDAWOG II (1999) 31 indicates that two-thirds of fishers in Lake Victoria have at most primary level of education. The lack of education limits their chances of finding alternative employment outside fishing and poorly educated males are more likely to be employed as mere crew members. Regarding the marital status of the respondents, majority (79.3%) were married, 18.7% single, while 1.8% widowed and only 0.3% divorced. Lwenya, et al. (2009) showed that most fisheries stakeholders were either in monogamous or polygamous marriages. A considerable proportion (26%) of households were headed by women as the open-access fisheries on the lake enable widowed women, as well as unemployed youth make a living from it. This was evident by 25% of widows who were not permanent residents at the beach, while 19% of married women were not with their spouses and therefore headed their households single-handedly for most of the year. Manual work was the main source of income besides fishing as demonstrated by most of the respondents (58.6%), followed by agriculture (30.9%), then handout (7.0%), while 0.6% engage in net mending besides fishing. Out of the fisher folk who have a source of income, 60.6% earn below 5,000 shillings a month while 38.5% earn above 5,000 shillings. The findings complement a survey conducted by SEDAWOG II (1999) which noted that the average boat owner earned in the range of US $ 65 per month in Lake Victoria Kenya; and in a good week, fisher folk earned approximately Ksh. 7,750, while in a bad week they earned Ksh. 1,822 a week (Omwega, 2000). Concerning household size, majority (71.1%) of the respondents live with less than 5 people in their 32 houses, 23.9% live with between 5-10 people in the household while 1.5% of the respondents live with more than 10 people in the same household. These findings concurs with those of SEDAWOG II (1999) which showed that majority of fishers in Lake Victoria have an average of 4 children per family and dependents ranging between 1 to 30 people. Table 4.1 summarizes the socio-economic and demographic characteristics. 33 Table 4.1: Socio-Economic & Demographic characteristics of the respondents Characteristic No. of Respondents Gender Male 325 Female 18 Age category Below 21 years 32 21-30 years 172 31-40 years 114 41-50 years 21 51+ years 4 Educational level None 7 Primary 255 Secondary 79 Tertiary/middle college 2 Marital status Single 64 Married 272 Divorced 1 Widowed 6 Other source of income Agriculture 106 Manual work 201 Hand outs 24 Net mending 2 Income per month Below 5000 208 5000-15000 132 Number of people living in the household Below 5 244 5-10 82 Over 10 5 Source: Based on Fieldwork Data 2011 Percent 94.8 5.2 9.3 50.2 33.2 6.1 1.2 6.96 70.43 21.74 0.87 18.7 79.3 0.3 1.8 30.9 58.6 7.0 0.6 60.6 38.5 71.1 23.9 1.5 4.3 Climatic Trends in Mbita Division between 1992-2011 Secondary data on climatic trends for Mbita were obtained from the meteorological station at ICIPE Mbita in order to establish the changes that have taken place over the past two decades. This was crucial as an indicator to 34 the phenomenon of weather and climate variability. This information is presented in this section. 4.3.1 Trend of wind speed for Mbita: 1992-2011 The statistical record of wind data obtained from the meteorological station in Mbita for the period between 1992 and 2011 as presented in Figure 4.1 showed a decreased trend in the average wind speed across the months from January to December over the 20 years, with the highest wind speed being experienced in the month of March and the lowest wind speed in the month of June. However, the data showed an increased trend in wind speed over the 20 years with the highest wind speed being experienced in the year 2011 (Figure 4.2). During the period of 20 years, the wind speed had risen to around 32.48 km/day (Table 4.2). The average wind speed recorded for Mbita during this period was 127.9 Km/day with a standard deviation of 28.0. Such changes denote changes in climatic regimes. This is a trend certainly to affect fishing activities. Strong winds according to Jallow et al. (1999) have adverse effects on fishing infrastructure and fisher folks themselves as fishing vessels get destroyed, lost or submerged. Monthly average wind speed (km/Day) 35 Figure 4.1: Monthly trend of wind data for Mbita: 1992-2011 Average yearly wind speed (km/Day) Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 Figure 4.2: Yearly trend of wind data for Mbita: 1992-2011 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 36 Table 4.2: Analysis of wind data from 1992 to 2011 Wind Mean (Km/Day) Standard deviation (Km/Day) Trend (Km/Day/Year or Month) Total change calculated from the trend (Km/Day/ 20 years)* Monthly 127.9 28.0 0.12 -16.11 Yearly 127.9 28.0 0.24 32.48 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 *Total change is the difference between the trend line value of the last and first year. 4.3.2 Trend of rainfall changes for Mbita 1992-2011 The recorded data on rainfall from 1992 to 2011 showed that April had the highest amount of rainfall over the years recording an average of 206.5 mm; February recorded the lowest rainfall over the years with an average of 54.1mm (Figure 4.3). The 20 years under consideration (1992 to 2011) showed an increasing trend in annual rainfall by 3.97 mm per year (Table 4.3) with the year 2006 recording an average of 142.2 mm of rainfall regarded as the highest amount of rainfall during the period (Figure 4.4). The average amount of rainfall recorded during this period was 117.4 mm (SD 82.2) as shown in Table 4.3. The irregularity in rainfall pattern from these records points a clear indication to weather and climate variability, some years like 1997, 2002 and 2006 have exceptionally high average rainfall of over 140mm, while others have lower than 100mm (figure. 4.4). 37 Figure 4.3: Monthly trend of rainfall data for Mbita: 1992-2011 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 Figure 4.4: Yearly trend of rainfall data for Mbita: 1992-2011 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 Table 4.3: Analysis of rainfall data from 1992 to 2011 Rainfall Monthly Yearly Mean (mm) 117.4 117.4 Standard deviation (mm) 82.2 82.2 Trend (mm /year or month) 0.01 0.01 Total change calculated from the trend (mm /20 years)* -11.54 3.97 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 *Total change is the difference between the trend line value of the last and first year. 38 4.3.3Trend of temperature changes for Mbita 1992-2011 An analysis of temperature data for Mbita between 1992 and 2011 showed an increasing trend. During the period of 20 years, the maximum temperature had risen by around 0.50 0C and minimum temperatures by 0.77 0C (Table 4.4). However, there are fluctuations over the months (Figure 4.5). Figure 4.6 shows the change in average temperature of the area, which depicts a warming trend in the area. The maximum average temperature being 29.8 0C (SD1.6) Figure 4.5: Monthly trend of temperature data for Mbita: 1992-2011 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 39 Figure 4.6: Yearly trend of temperature data for Mbita: 1992-2011 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 Table 4.4: Analysis of temperature data from 1992 to 2011 Temperatures Monthly Yearly Min Max Min Max Mean (0C) 17.4 29.8 17.4 29.8 Standard deviation (0C) 0.7 1.6 0.7 1.6 0 Trend ( C/year or month) 0.01 0.04 0.49 0.08 Total change calculated from the trend (0C/20 years)* -0.16 -0.67 0.77 0.50 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 *Total change is the difference between the trend line value of the last and first year. 4.4 Perception of respondents on whether or not weather and climate variability affect fisher-folk and fishing activities Climatic changes may sometimes have adverse effects on the fisher folks due to the dangers it imposes. This study attempted to assess the effect of the weather and climatic variability on the lives of the fisher folk. The first step 40 was to find out whether the fisher folk were aware that weather and climate variability affects fishing activities. All the respondents observed that variability in climate and reduction in lake water levels affects the fishing activities. When the respondents were asked whether weather and climate variability and reduction in lake water levels affect the fisher folk, 95.3% of the respondents observed that it affects fisher folk while 4.7% of the respondents observed that weather and climate variability and reduction in lake water levels does not affect the fisher folk (Figure 4.7). According to FAO (2008) many lakes have shown moderate to strong warming since 1960’s and others are receding. There are particular concerns for African lakes, as the atmospheric temperature of the continent is predicted to be higher than the global average and rainfall is projected to decrease, which will impact negatively on fishing activities in these lakes. Crandall (2009) points out that receding water level in Lake Victoria is due to the degradation and loss of wetlands which is more rapid than that of other ecosystems. Daw, Neil, Katrina and Badjeck (2008), observed that lake fishing especially in Africa is impacted by reduced lake levels and catches due to reduced precipitation and high run off as a result of weather and variability. Jul-Larsen, Kolding, Overa, Raakjaer and Zweiten (2003), noted that the dynamics of fisheries in African lakes are driven primarily by climate variability and that both the ecosystem and the livelihoods of fisher-folk living near these water bodies are highly adapted to extensive fluctuations in lake size and depth, extent of flood plains and changes in aquatic productivity. 41 Figure 4.7: Perception of the Respondents on Whether or not Weather and Climate Variability and Reduction of Lake Water Levels Affect fisher folk Source: Based on Fieldwork Data 2011 4.5. Effect of weather and climate variability on fisher folks and Fishing Duration Badjeck et al. (2009) points out that climate variability has direct impact on the fisher folks themselves. He notes that it can lead to loss of life among other things. Table 4.5 summarizes the fisher folk expression of the impact of different aspects of weather and climate variability on them. These impacts are discussed in the subsequent sub-sections. 42 Table 4.5: Effects of weather and Climate Variability on fisher folk Variability Strong winds Loss of life as a result of boat submerging f % Sickness of fisher folks due to body injuries F % Loss of No effect fishing gear in water f % f % 287 83.7 51 14.9 5 1.5 0 0.0 Calm condition Storm 0 0.0 1 0.3 1 0.3 341 99.4 69 20.1 235 68.5 22 6.4 17 5.0 High rainfall 199 58.0 61 17.8 78 22.7 5 1.5 Moderate rainfall Low rainfall 0 0.0 26 7.6 5 1.5 312 90.9 0 0.0 42 12.2 1 0.3 300 87.5 Drought 0 0.0 0 0.0 20 5.8 323 94.2 224 65.3 31 9.0 79 23.0 9 2.6 33.5 4 1.2 207 60.3 19.5 17 5.0 259 75.5 3.8 4 1.2 326 95.0 Flood High 17 5.0 115 temperature Low 0 0.0 67 temperature Moderate 0 0.0 13 temperature Source: Based on Fieldwork Data, 2011 4.5.1: Effect of Change in Wind Pattern on fisher folks The results in Table 4.5 showed that all the respondents (100%) observed that strong winds have adverse effects on fisher folk. This can be deduced from the fact that about 83.7% noted that fisher folk lose their lives as a result of boat submergence, 14.9% said that the fisher folks fall sick due to body injuries, 1.5% observed that the fishing equipment get lost in water and none said that strong winds have no effect on fisher folk. On the other hand 99.4% of the respondents preferred calm conditions for their activities. With regard to 43 stormy conditions, 68.5% observed that fisher folk fall sick due to body injuries, 20.1% noted that storms causes loss of life as a result of the boat submergence, 6.4% observed that fisher folk’s fishing equipment get lost in water during such a condition, while only 5.0% of the respondents observed that storms have no effect on fisher folk. These findings concur with the observation of Crandall (2009), who noted that changes in wind patterns and occurrence of severe storms as a result of climate variability are likely to impact on fish production, species composition, distribution, safety and efficiency of fishing. According Jallow et al., (1999) storm and severe weather events can destroy productive assets and infrastructure such as landing sites, boats and gear, as well as impacting negatively on the health of the fisher folk. A look at wind trends in Mbita Division between 1992-2011 show an increased trend in wind speed over the 20 years with the highest wind speed being experienced in the year 2011 (Figure 4.2). During the period of 20 years, the wind speed had risen to around 32.48 km/day (Table 4.2). The average wind speed recorded for Mbita during this period was 127.9 Km/day with a standard deviation of 28.0. With this kind of trend therefore the fisher folks are bound to be affected as pointed out above. However, one striking finding from statistics obtained from the Fisheries Department is that the year that had the highest wind speed had the highest number of fisher folks. Table 4.6 shows that the year 2002 which had the highest number of fisher folk also recorded the highest wind speed, 2006 that had a slightly higher number of fisher folk recorded the lowest wind speed. 44 This trend shows that although strong winds have effects on fisher folk such as injuries and loss of lives, submergence of boats and loss of fishing gears, the intensity in wind speed in a given year does not influence the number of fisher folk engaging in fishing activities in Mbita Division. 45 Table 4.6: Effects of Wind on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for Fishing Year Wind- speed (mean) Number of Fishers 2000 134.9 14,782 2002 136.3 16,727 2004 130.3 11,639 2006 119.1 15,585 2008 124.7 14,341 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 and Lake Victoria (Kenya) Fisheries Frame Survey, 2006 4.5.2 Effect of Change in Rainfall Patterns on Fisher folk The results from Table 4.5 show that change in rainfall pattern has effect on fisher folk in Mbita Division. For instance 58.0% of the respondents said that high rainfall results into loss of life as a result of submergence of vessels, 22.7% of the respondents said that fisher folk lose their gear in waters and 17.8% said there are fisher folk who fall sick due to body injuries as a result of high rainfall when their vessels are swept. With regard to moderate and low rainfall, an overwhelming majority (90.9% and 87.5% respectively) of the fisher folk observed that moderate and low rainfall have no effect in the lives of the fisher folk. Drought, another aspect of rainfall seemed to have little effects on the fisher folk with 94.2% of the fisher folk observing that drought has no effect. The major impact of flooding according to the findings is that it causes loss of lives (65.3%) and fishing gear (23.0%). Crandall, (2009) in her study also found out that majority of Kenyan community recognized the danger of increased flooding attributed to greater climate variability. When asked to compare the effects of flooding versus drought, most respondents had a greater 46 fear of floods than drought citing the larger potential for floods to wreck utter havoc and death. Results from the Fisheries Department indicate that the amount of rainfall positively influences the number of fisher folk engaging in fishing activities (Table 4.7) whereby during high rainfall many people tend to go fishing due to increased fish in the lake while during low rainfall or drought few people go fishing due to low yield (Ministry of Fisheries, 2008). This means that more fisher folk are at risks given the above stated consequences of high rainfall, storm and flooding. Table 4.7: Effects of Rainfall on Number of fisher folk Going Out for Fishing Year Average Rainfall (mm) Number of Fishers 2000 101.2 14,782 2002 135.1 16,727 2004 118.8 11,639 2006 142.2 15,585 2008 113.3 14,341 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological Station (19922011) and Lake Victoria Fisheries Frame Survey (2006) 4.5.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature Pattern on Fisher folk The results from the study (Table 4.5) show that temperature variations have little effect on the fisher folk. Majority of the fisher folk observed that high temperature (60.3%), moderate temperature (95.0%) and low temperature (75.5%) had no effect on the fisher folk. Generally, during high temperatures fisher folk tend not to go fishing because of low yield of fish. This observation is supported by FAO (2008) that temperature changes are likely to impact cold water species negatively and warm water species positively. According to FAO 47 (2008), with increase in atmospheric temperature, there would be changes in fish distribution and abundance in the lake. This implies that temperatures directly influence the number of fisher folk going to fish in the lake. This observation is found on data obtained from Fisheries Department from Mbita Division (Table 4.8). Table 4.8: Effects of Temperature on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for Fishing Year Mean Temperature (0o) Number of Fishers 2000 23.9 14,782 2002 23.6 16,727 2004 25.6 11,639 2006 23.5 15,585 2008 23.9 14,341 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological Station (19922011) and Lake Victoria Fisheries Frame Survey (2006) 4.6 Effect of Climate Variability on Fishing Duration The study sought to establish whether changes in wind pattern affect duration of fishing. This is because weather and climate variability can impact fishing duration in multiple ways. The findings are summarized and presented in Table 4.9. 48 Table 4.9: Effect of weather and Climate Variability on Fishing Duration Variability Strong winds Calm condition Storm High rainfall Moderate rainfall Low rainfall Drought Flood High temperature Low temperature Moderate temperature Short time Normal time Longer time No fishing at all f % 298 86.9 f 30 % 8.8 F 0 % 0.0 f 15 % 4.4 15 4.4 105 30.6 222 64.7 1 0.3 266 50 77.6 14.6 16 1 4.7 0.3 1 15 0.3 4.4 60 277 17.5 80.8 85 24.8 157 45.8 43 12.5 58 16.9 137 39.9 152 44.3 54 15.7 0 0.0 1 166 197 0.3 48.4 57.4 135 141 136 39.4 41.1 39.7 191 35 5 55.7 10.2 1.7 16 1 5 4.7 0.3 1.7 17 5.0 290 84.5 35 10.2 1 0.3 1 0.3 302 88.0 39 11.4 0 0.0 Source: Based on Fieldwork Data 2011 4.6.1 Effect of Change of Wind Pattern on Fishing Duration According to the findings in Table 4.9 majority of the respondents (86.9%) observed that during strong winds there is no fishing at all, while 8.8% said they take shorter time fishing during strong winds. When asked about fishing duration during calm conditions, majority (64.7%) observed that they take longer time fishing while 30.6% observed that they take the normal time fishing and only 4.4% said that they take shorter time. Calm conditions provide the fisher folk with favourable conditions to venture into the waters for a longer period of time without the fear of submergence or 49 losing their fishing gears. During storm, majority of the fisher folk (77.6%) observed that fishing duration is shortened and over 17% observed that there is no fishing at all. The fear of strong winds and storms keeps away the fisher folk thus either shortening the fishing duration or leads to no fishing at all. According to Johnson (2012) increased frequency and severity of storms or weather may be unsuitable for fishing. Fedoulo, Murphy and Shugousky (1996) concurs that strong winds drive the water currents very fast thus affecting fish catch. Song, Semazzi, Xie and Ogolla (2004) also observed that wind speed and intensity in Bukoba (Tanzania) influences the fish catch per vessel either positively or negatively. The same was also observed to affect fish catches in Musoma. These observations are in agreement with the findings of this study. 4.6.2 Effect of Change of Rainfall Pattern on Fishing Duration Changes in rainfall pattern are likely to have different impacts on the duration of fishing it may either prolong or shorten the duration. The results from the study (Table 4.9) show that rainfall has effect on fishing duration in Mbita Division. During high rainfall, 80.8% of the respondents observed that there is no fishing at all, 14.6% observed that fishing takes a shorter time, and only 0.3% observed that fishing takes the normal time. During moderate and low rainfall, majority of the respondents observed that fishing duration takes normal time (45.8% and 44.3% respectively). During drought the results of the study showed that fishing duration range from normal time (55.7%) to longer time (39.4). However, up to 4.7% of the respondents observed that there is no 50 fishing at all. Daw et al., (2008) noted that during drought the fishers around Lake Chilwa in Malawi opt for other sources of livelihood due to reduction on yields. Flooding had also a negative impact on fishing duration. During floods according to the 48.4% of the respondents fishing duration is shortened, this is largely due to the threat of flooding on safety in the waters, but also interestingly due to high yields that can be harvested over a short time. According to Allison et al. (2005) flooding raises fish yields mainly as a result of increased basin run off and discharge rates. In Lake Victoria, most fish species do have breeding and spawning season in different times, but with a peak at the end of rainy season. According to Lowe (1997) during rainy seasons, nutrients are injected into the lake from the land. This leads to phytoplankton bloom. Heavy rains also plays an important role in the breeding activities (Owiti, 1986) as some fish species of Lake Victoria fluctuates in abundance during drought and flood years. 4.6.3 Effect of Change of Temperature Pattern on Fishing Duration Respondents were requested to indicate whether changes in temperature patterns affect the duration of fishing. The results from the study showed that apart from high temperature where majority (57.4%) observed that fishing duration is shortened, moderate and low temperature do not have much impact on fishing duration as majority take the normal time (88.0% and 84.5% respectively). During high temperatures fisher folk tend not to go fishing 51 because of low yield of fish. According to O’Reilly, Allivi, Pilsnier, Cohen and Mckee (2003) fish production in Lake Tanganyika has declined in the recent past largely due to increasing temperature. This view is also supported by IPCC (1990) that there is one school of thought who holds that biological productivity of some fish species may increase with increasing temperature just to ascertain threshold, but in some species, the decline in productivity comes with the increase in temperature. This supports the view that temperature influence the fishing duration. 4.7 Effects of seasonal variability of climatic elements on fish catch in Mbita Division According to Trotman (2002) climatic variation may results to changes in fishing activities which in turn prompts variability in fish-catch. The prevailing climate in a particular season in a particular year may differ from what it was in that same season in another year, with corresponding consequences for certain fish-stock sizes. This change is something that most fishers are accustomed to, even expect, and they usually accommodate it without experiencing serious economic problems if they are not already overharvesting their key fisheries resources. But in the longer-term, weather and climate variability may result to corresponding changes in lake ecological conditions which may bring about more lasting changes in the availability of certain fish stocks. The fish species that may have long disappeared suddenly 52 become abundant. This may benefit the fishers if the newly abundant fish species is valuable to them. On the other hand it may harm them if the newly abundant fish preys upon or displaces other long-important fish stocks. Likewise, weather and climate variability can cause a long-abundant and important fish stock to disappear, due to changing ecology. But more often than not, such radical changes in stock availabilities result from the combined effects of lake-ecological changes and over-harvesting fishery resources. Figure 4.8 shows that there has been an increase in fish catch in Mbita Division over the years between 1997 and 2007 then a decline to 2010. Figure 4.8: Fish Catch Trends in Mbita: 1997-2010 Source: Based on data from Beach Management Unit-Mbita District, 2011. Respondents were requested to indicate the intensity of the effects of seasonal variability of climate on fish catch on the scale ranging from very high to very low in terms (amount of fish catch). The results of their responses are presented in Table 4.10. 53 Table 4.10: Effects of seasonal weather and climate variability on fish catch Variability Strong winds Calm condition Storm High rainfall Moderate rainfall Low rainfall Drought Flood High temperature Low temperature Moderate temperature Very low 1 Moderate/ normal % f % 0.3 76 22.2 f 12 % 3.5 Very High f % 45 13.1 0.3 5 1.5 181 52.8 22 6.4 134 39.1 91 26.5 131 38.2 4 1.2 246 24 8 71.7 7.0 2.4 1 60 203 0.3 17.5 59.2 5 100 97 1.5 29.2 28.3 1 0.3 179 52.2 2 0.6 41 12.0 132 83 45 165 38.5 24.2 13.1 48.1 183 44 80 90 53.4 12.8 23.3 16.2 27 36 65 46 7.9 10.5 19.0 13.4 f % 209 60.9 1 Low f High 0 28 31 0.0 8.2 9.0 0 0.0 1 0.3 151 44.0 1 0.3 10 2.9 158 46.1 160 46.6 14 4.1 1 0.3 0 0.0 10 2.9 158 46.1 173 50.4 2 0.6 Source: Based on Fieldwork Data, 2011. 4.7.1 Effect of Change of Wind on Fish Catch Variability in wind patterns often affects fish catch in lakes. From the study results (Table 4.10), majority (61.2%) of the respondents observed that strong winds reduce fish catch. This is true based on the fact that as it had been presented earlier, the duration of fishing is shortened or there is no fishing at all. At the same time fishing vessels and gear may be destroyed during strong winds thus leading to low fish catch. Some species of fish may migrate further into the deep waters thus affecting fish catch. The situation is different during calm conditions as only 1.8% of the respondents reported low fish catch, while 52.8% reported normal fish catch and up to 45.5% reported an increase in fish 54 catch. The storm had even more adverse impact on fish catch than strong winds, where up to 98.2% of the respondents reported reduction in fish catch and only 1.8% reported normal catch or an increase in fish catch. Trotman (2002) notes that extreme weather such as tropical cyclones can be very damaging to the fisheries industries as they cause destruction on the fishing gear, fishing vessels and coral reefs which is a major setback to the fishing community due to reduced fish catch and by extension the general population. In Jamaica and Florida, the Hurricane Gilbert and Andrew in 1989 destroyed large expanse of fish habitat (mangrove) causing loss of valuable fish stock and fish species. From the secondary data obtained from the fisheries and meteorological departments, the amount of fish catch tends to go up when the winds stabilizes and reduces during strong winds as seen in the trends over the years (Table 4.11). This is seen to be in line with the general feeling of the fisher folk in the region. Table 4.11: Effects of Wind on Amount of Fish Catch Year Wind-speed (mean) 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 134.9 136.3 129.4 130.3 123.4 Amount of Fishcatch 133,526 105,866 114,812 115,747 192,738 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 and District Fisheries Department, Mbita District, 2011. 55 4.7.2 Effect of Change in Rainfall on Fish Catch It is expected that rainfall would influence fish catch in any given time, the results from the study showed a mixed impact of high rainfall in fish catch. While 45.2% of the respondents reported low to very low catch during high rainfall season, 37.4% reported high to very high fish catch. This may be explained from the fact that although during high rainfall there is an increase in fish yield but the dangers posed by high rainfall deter some fisher folk from venturing into the waters for a long period. Thus, those who take the risks record higher yields while those who stay away or venture into the waters for a short while due to fear, injuries or loss of vessels during high rainfall record low fish catch. However, during moderate and low rainfall season the fish catch is mainly moderate/normal (59.2% and 53.4% respectively). The effect of drought on fish catch was also investigated and the results showed that 63.0% of the respondents observed that fish catch ranged from high to very high. Thus, floods were found to positively affect fish catch in the lake. Allison et al., (2005) noted that in Bangladesh, a 20 -40% increase in flooded areas raised total annual fish yields by between 60000 – 130000 tonnes as a result of increased basin run off and discharge rates. Secondary data from the Fisheries and Meteorological Departments in Mbita showed that the amount of fish catch is influenced by the amount of rainfall experienced in the regions as depicted in Table 4.12. 56 Table 4.12: Effects of Rainfall on Amount of Fish Catch Year Average Rainfall (mm) Amount of Fish Catch 2000 101.2 133,526 2002 96.3 105,866 2003 104.3 114,812 2004 118.8 115,747 2005 135.1 192,738 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 and District Fisheries Department, Mbita District, 2011 4.7.3 Effect of Change in Temperature on Fish Catch Although very extreme temperatures (e.g. very high and very low) have an impact on fish yields, moderate to low temperatures do not have much impact on the yields. The results of this study revealed that majority of the respondents reported normal fish catch during moderate and low temperatures (59.2% and 53.4% respectively). However, during high temperatures, 48.1% of the respondents said that fish catch was low. This corresponds with earlier assertion made in this presentation that generally during high temperatures fisher folk fisher folk tend not to go fishing because of low yield of fish. According to Johnson (2012), increased stream temperature as a result of high temperatures and lower water levels in fresh water systems can reduce the productivity of spawning and rearing waters. Mahon (2002) observed that in the Caribbean Sea, Meso scale climate variability such as the sea surface temperature change influenced the migration and stock patterns of fish, consequently affecting the availability of fish stocks and local fishing fleets. However, secondary data on fish catch and temperature variations over the years obtained from the fisheries and meteorological departments in Mbita in 57 Table 4.13 show that there was very little impact of temperature variations on fish catch. Table 4.13: Effects of Temperature on Number of Fisher folk Going Out for Fishing Year Mean Temperature (0o) Amount of Fish Catch 2000 23.9 133,526 2002 23.6 105,866 2003 23.4 114,812 2004 25.6 115,747 2005 24.2 192,738 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1997-2011 and District Fisheries Department, Mbita District, 2011 4.8 Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on the Choice of Fishing Equipment and Techniques Fishing equipment and techniques increase or reduce the yield of fish catch. However, their choices are influenced by the prevailing weather conditions. The researcher set to find out the effect of climate variability (rainfall, wind and temperature) on fishing techniques and equipments. The results of the findings are presented in this section. 4.8.1 Effects of Weather and Climate Variability on the Choice of Fishing Techniques The fishing techniques that were adversely mentioned by the respondents during the study and which in the study are referred to as other techniques include; trapping, long line fishing, splashing and poisoning. These techniques are chosen depending on the season and also on the prevailing climatic conditions. The usual fishing methods mentioned in this study include use of 58 Gill nets, Beach seines, Castnets, Liftnets and Handlines. Table 4.14 presents the choice of fishing techniques during different climatic conditions. Table 4.14: Effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing techniques Variability in Weather and Climate Use of usual fishing method (Gill nets,Beach seines,Cast net,Lift net, Hand lines) f % 122 35.6 338 98.5 98 28.6 123 35.9 239 69.7 239 69.7 293 85.4 305 88.9 130 37.9 242 70.6 330 96.2 Strong winds Calm condition Storm High rainfall Moderate rainfall Low rainfall Drought Flood High temperature Low temperature Moderate temperature Source: Based on Fieldwork Data, 2011 Use other techniques (Trapping, Hook and Long lines, Handlines, Splashing and poisoning) f % 221 64.4 5 1.5 245 71.4 219 63.9 104 30.3 104 30.3 50 14.6 25 7.3 212 61.8 101 29.5 13 3.8 4.8.1.1 Effect of Changes in Wind on Choice of Fishing Techniques During strong winds and storms majority (64.4% and 71.4% respectively) of the respondents mentioned using other fishing techniques (Table 4.14). The preferred fishing methods during strong wind and storms are trapping and long line methods as well as splashing. These are preferred due to the danger of venturing deep into the waters. Apart from the fear of venturing into deep waters during strong waves, pelagic fish swim close to the shore in the waves. The fisher folk easily harvest them using the traps constructed at the beach, or by the use of baited hooks. Usual methods like beach seining during storms is abandoned because of them, being destroyed due to rise in lake level. During 59 calm conditions the preferred fishing techniques are what are referred to as usual (98.5%), these include gill nets, beach seines, cast net, lift net and hand lines. These methods are called usual because they are the methods majority of fisher folk are used and accustomed to. They are relatively old methods of fishing. In calm condition, beach seines are easier to work on because the lake bed is relatively free of obstacles brought in by strong waves and storms which might interfere with fishing operations, hence the reason why the usual methods are preferred. 4.8.1.2 Effect of Changes in Rainfall on Choice of Fishing Techniques The study showed that fishing techniques change a lot during high rainfall where 63.9% use the other techniques as opposed to the usual fishing methods. The preferred fishing methods during high rainfall include poisoning, splashing and trapping. The situation is however different during moderate and low rainfall seasons, 69.7% of the respondents respectively reported the usual fishing method. During drought majority (85.4%) of the respondents use the other techniques of fishing, the main one being long lines, and in some cases poisoning. This can be attributed to reduction in fish yield that may prompt fisher folk to employ such methods. Hamilton and Snedaker (1984) observe that extended periods of drought results in loss of fish habitats (mangroves) prompting fisher folk to adopt the most appropriate fishing techniques to sustain their daily incomes. Snedaker, Vicente, Singh and Botello (1993) noted that the behaviour of mangroves (habitats) corresponds to either sea level rise 60 or reduction. The topography of the shoreline therefore plays a major role in determining whether there is habitat gain or loss hence the stock of fish. Goudswaard, Franswitte and Laurenj (2002) observed that during spawning, lungfish population is decreased when the breeding habitat are deteriorated by factors such as drought. During flooding according to the findings of this study, the preferred techniques of fishing are using the usual techniques (88.9%). The high yields during this period may not require change of techniques. This view is supported by Badjeck (2002) and Palomino (1985) who observed that in Peru, the El-Niño event of 1997-1998, made fisher-folk to switch from their diving methods to the use of fishing nets in order to maximise scallop harvests. 4.8.1.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature on Fishing Techniques During high temperatures, majority of the respondents (61.8%) reported using other methods of fishing while 37.9% reported using the usual methods of fishing. This change in techniques during high temperature may be attributed to low fish yield. High temperatures are normally experienced during drought, and as Daw et al., (2008) noted, there is a reduction on fish yields. Rising temperatures render oxygen less soluble (Idvisi, Luthy, Capo and Serafy, 2003), thus, deoxygenation results into movement of fish into deep and cool waters. McCullough (1999) observes that prolonged exposure of stream temperature to adult salmon is lethal to them, hence their distribution at times depend on the 61 water temperature. This could explain the change of the fishing methods. However, during low and moderate temperature the yields are high thus majority of the respondents reported using the usual fishing methods (70.6% and 96.2% respectively). 4.8.2 Effects of weather and climate variability on the Fishing equipment The results on the effects of climate variability on the choice of fishing equipments are presented in this section. The respondents were required to indicate the effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing equipments. The results of their responses are summarized and presented in Table 4.15. Table 4.15: Effects of weather and climate variability on the choice of fishing equipments WeatherVariability Destroyed f % Strong winds 218 63.6 Calm condition 1 0.3 Storm 173 50.4 High rainfall 36 10.5 Moderate rainfall 26 7.6 Low rainfall 0 0.0 Drought 92 26.8 Flood 40 11.7 High temperature 147 42.9 Low temperature 17 5.0 Moderate temperature 1 0.3 Source: Based on Fieldwork Data 2011 Submerged f % 82 23.9 43 12.5 80 23.3 171 49.9 105 30.6 105 30.6 0 0.0 298 86.9 4 1.2 22 6.4 22 6.4 No effect f % 43 12.5 299 87.2 38 11.1 136 39.7 199 58.0 237 73.2 251 73.2 5 1.5 192 56.0 304 88.6 320 93.3 62 4.8.2.1 Effect of Changes in Wind on Choice of Fishing Equipment Wind as an aspect of weather and climate variability affects the fishing equipment. The results of the study showed that strong winds either destroy (63.6%) or submerged (23.9%) the fishing equipment while 12.5% of the respondents reported that strong winds have no effect on the fishing equipment. The situation was the same during storm where 50.4% of the respondents observed that fishing equipments get destroyed, 23.3% observed that the equipments submerged while 11.1% reported that there is no effect of storm on fishing equipments. Calm conditions are the most favourable for fishing activities, over 87% of the respondents observed that there is no damage on fishing equipment during calm condition. Secondary data obtained from fisheries and meteorological departments supports the link between changes in wind pattern and choice of fishing equipments. During the years it is evident that the trend for wind speed has been on the decline. Fishing crafts which are majorly affected by wind/storm show an inverse proportion i.e. when the winds are blowing strongly the number of fishing crafts used for fishing goes down and fisher folk tend to use the fishing crafts when wind speed is low or calm (Table 4.16). Mahon (2002) noted that the fishing industry of Antigua and Barbuda sustained substantial losses as a result of Hurricane Luis and about 16% of their fleet were either destroyed or lost, and further 18% was totally damaged. The use of gillnets and seines also follow the same trend as fishing crafts which implies that strong winds or storm affects the use of these methods of fishing. However, fishing 63 hooks are not interfered with by wind instead increases when there is strong winds/storm and decreases in a similar manner (Table 4.16). Table 4.16: Effects of Wind on Fishing Equipment and Techniques Year 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Wind- Speed Fishing equipment and techniques in Km/Hr Total number of Fishing Seines fishing crafts hooks 134.9 4,051 511,978 491 136.3 3,267 557,077 281 130.3 3,575 420,631 382 119.1 4,910 280,798 1,443 124.7 4,486 403,249 565 Gillnets 37,527 28,797 74,904 89,985 75,255 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 and Lake Victoria (Kenya) Fisheries Frame Survey, 2006 4.8.2.2 Effect of Changes in Rainfall on Fishing Equipment According to the findings of this study 73.2% and 49.9% of the respondents reported that fishing equipments submerged during flooding and high rainfall respectively, while 11.7% and10.5% reported destruction of fishing equipment under the same circumstances. During moderate and low rainfall, majority of the respondents reported that there is no effect on fishing equipments (58.0% and 73.2% respectively). High rainfall and resultant flooding is sometimes accompanied by storms that are likely to cause fishing equipments to Submerged or get destroyed. However, during high rainfall fish yields are normally high hence the likelihood of many fisher folk venturing into the lake despite the risk of submergence and destruction of fish craft. Secondary data obtained from fisheries and meteorological departments was further utilized for comparison purposes although it did capture the intensity 64 and other aspects such as drought but the average amounts. This limits the effectiveness of the comparison; however, the data showed that the average annual rainfall increased in 2002, declined in 2004 and then increased in 2006, this shows an irregular pattern of rainfall in the region. The number of fishing crafts and hooks seem to follow the same trend as rainfall suggesting that rainfall does not affect the use of these equipments for fishing. The use of gillnets and seines are affected by the fluctuating rainfall patterns where the number of gillnets and seines increased when the rainfall was high and decreased when rainfall dropped (Table 4.17). Table 4.17: Effects of Rainfall on Fishing Equipment and Techniques Year Average Rainfall (mm) 2000 101.2 2002 135.1 2004 118.8 2006 142.2 2008 113.3 Fishing equipment and techniques Total number of Fishing Seines fishing crafts hooks 4,051 511,978 491 3,267 557,077 281 3,575 420,631 382 4,910 280,798 1,443 4,486 403,249 565 Gillnets 37,527 28,797 74,904 89,985 75,255 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 and Lake Victoria (Kenya) Fisheries Frame Survey, 2006 4.8.2.3 Effect of Changes in Temperature on Fishing Equipment The findings of this study revealed that temperature variations have no effect on fishing equipments. Majority of the respondents reported that high temperatures (56.0%), low temperatures (88.6%) and moderate temperatures (93.3%) have no effect on fishing equipment. Temperature unless very extreme is unlikely to cause damage, Submerged or destroy fishing equipments. 65 Secondary data from the fisheries and meteorological departments showed that the number of fishing crafts seemed not to be affected so much by the temperatures of the region but showed a slight increase in their use when the temperatures went down. Use of gillnets, fishing hooks and seines did not show any effect by temperatures since they showed irregular trends of the usage for fishing (Table 4.18). Table 4.18: Effects of Temperature on Fishing Equipment and Techniques Year Average Fishing equipment and techniques o Temperature(0 ) Total number of Fishing Seines fishing crafts hooks 2000 23.9 4,051 511,978 491 2002 23.6 3,267 557,077 281 2004 25.6 3,575 420,631 382 2006 23.5 4,910 280,798 1,443 2008 23.9 4,486 403,249 565 Gillnets 37,527 28,797 74,904 89,985 75,255 Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1992-2011 and Lake Victoria (Kenya) Fisheries Frame Survey, 2006 4.9 Coping and adaptive strategies of fishing community in Mbita Division The results of the study revealed that 95.9% of the respondents observed that variability in weather and climate has affected their livelihoods as fisher folk as opposed to only 4.1% who have not noticed any difference in their livelihood despite weather and climate variability (Figure 4.9). Weather and Climate variability impact through ways such as changes in rainfall pattern, occurrence of storms, changes in wind pattern, changes in 66 temperature, changes in lake levels, increased flooding event, and drought among others. These changes have effect on the production ecology, fishing operations, safety and efficiency of fishing infrastructure. These effects impact on fish species composition, production, yield risk of health and life of fisher folk, loss and damage to livelihood assets (Badjeck et al. 2009). Therefore, the fisher folk will have to seek adaptation and mitigation strategies in order to sustain their livelihood. Figure 4.9: Effect of weather and climate variability on fisher folk’s livelihood Source: Based on data from the Mbita ICIPE Meteorological station 1997-2011 The respondents were asked to state how climate variability has impacted on their livelihood. The results in Table 4.19 revealed that 99.7% of the respondents observed that they have lost income from fishing, 99.4% experienced reduction in access to food due to loss of revenue from fishing, 93.0% had either their fishing equipments destroyed or lost in the waters, 67 82.1% had to abandon fishing at some time for other economic activities, 68.1% lost their membership to fishing cooperatives, 66.9% had to be away from home for some time in search of good fishing sites, 44.4% had faced the risk of malnutrition and under-nutrition by family due to reduced access to fish as a source of protein, while 19.8% had encountered some form of conflict with other fisher folk over fishing areas (competing for resources). According to FAO (2008) fishery-dependent communities are likely to face increased vulnerability in terms of less stable livelihoods and safety risks due to fishing in harsher weather conditions and further from their landing sites. Norbis, Ponce, Severov, Saona, Verocai, Pshennikov, Siilva and Sencion (2005) and Naggy, Bidegain, Caffera, Lagomarsino, Norbis, Ponce. and Sencion (2006) noted that during strong ENSO years, the net income of fisher-folk reduces by between 40-70% in Uruguay mainly because of the shortened peak period due to inaccessibility of the fisheries and reduction in sizes of fish. Table 4.19: Impact of weather and climate variability on fisher folk livelihood Impact of weather and climate variability on fisher folk livelihood Loss of income from fishing Had to abandon fishing at some point for other economic activities Fishing equipment destroyed or lost Had to be away from home for sometimes in search of good fishing sites Loss of membership to fishing co-operative Conflict with other fisher folk over fishing areas Reduced access to food due to loss of revenue from fishing Risk of malnutrition and under-nutrition by family due to reduced access to fish for a source of protein Source: Based on Fieldwork Data 2011 f % 328 270 306 220 99.7 82.1 93.0 66.9 224 65 327 146 68.1 19.8 99.4 44.4 68 Other impacts of weather and climate variability mentioned by the respondents included lack of security, loss of boats that Submerged in the lake and reduced economic income. Katrina, Eriksen and Kelly (2002) also alludes to the fact that the direct impact of climate variability on fisher folk livelihood include damaged infrastructure, damaged gears, increased danger at the lake, loss/gain of navigation routes and flooding of fishing communities. FAO (1989) estimated the total cost of damage by Hurricane Hugo in 1989 in Antigua and Barbuda at US$1.15 million which included replacement of 28 boats which were lost, repair of 36 damaged and replacement of fishing traps. 4.10: Coping and adaptive strategies of fishing community in Mbita Division When the respondents were asked whether they rely solely on fishing, 99.7% observed that now unlike in the past, they supplement fishing activity with other activities like farming and operating small businesses. However, farming which was the main supplementing economic activity was not quite viable in the area due to the nature of the soils and also its vulnerability to the impact of weather and climate variability like fishing. The respondents were also asked to state if they knew of fisher folk who have completely abandoned fishing due to effects of climate variability in their location, 98.0% of the respondents observed that they knew some fisher folk people who have abandoned fishing due to reduction in fish catch. The fisher folk who abandoned fishing for other economic activities resorted mainly to farming (80.4%), small scale business (70.5%), boat repairing (42.0%), being fish trader (62.8%), boda boda operator (6.8%) and grazing animals for other people (1.5%) (Table 4.20). 69 Table 4.20: Coping and adaptive strategies apart from fishing Coping and adaptive strategies apart from fishing f % Farming Small scale business Boat repairing Fish trader Boda boda Grazing animals Source: Based on Fieldwork Data, 2011 270 237 141 211 23 5 80.4 70.5 42.0 62.8 6.8 1.5 The respondents were then asked to comment on their assessment on how these changes on livelihood activities have impacted on the income of those fisher folk who have abandoned fishing. Their responses were overwhelmingly that it has drastically reduced the incomes. The general view was that weather and climate variability has impacted negatively on the livelihood of fisher folk and majority have opted for other sources of income. 70 CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMENDATIONS 5.1 Introduction This section presents a consolidated summary of all findings, conclusions, recommendations and suggestions for further investigations. 5.2. Summary of Findings This study examined the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing and livelihood activities in Mbita Division, Homa bay County Kenya. The factors which were examined included how changes in temperature, rainfall and wind affects fish catch, fishing facilities, choice of fishing techniques and livelihood of the fisher folk. The results of the study showed that strong winds, storms, high rainfall and floods have adverse effects on fisher folk as some lose their lives as a result of submergence of boat (83.7%), some fall sick due to injuries (68.5%) and others lose their fishing equipments (23.0%). The study also found out that during strong winds, storms and floods, most fishing activities do not take place as a result of fear of drowning or damage to fishing equipments, while fishing activities return to normal during calm weather conditions (64.7%). Temperature changes were reported to have very little impact on the fisher folk. However, it is imperative to note that high rainfall and floods results in increased fish yield and thus large number of fisher folk going out for fishing activities. 71 On the effects of weather and climate variability on the duration of fishing, the results revealed that during strong winds, storms and high rainfall there is either no fishing at all or a shorter duration of fishing (86.9%). During calm and low rainfall duration fishing duration takes the normal or longer time (95.3%). However, during drought the fisher folk take a longer duration fishing due to lack of fish (55.7%), while floods make duration of fishing shorter (48.4%) due to two varied and opposing reasons. First, the risk of drowning makes fisher folk take a short time in the waters and secondly, abundance of fish makes it unnecessary to take along time in the waters. With regard to fish catch, there can be no doubt that weather and climatic variation prompts changes in fishing activities which in turn prompts variability in fish-catch. The prevailing climate in a particular season in a particular year may differ from what it was in that same season in another year, with corresponding consequences for certain fish-stock sizes. The study found that according to most respondents, strong winds, storms and high amount of rainfall reduces the amount of fish catch (60.9%). However, flooding was reported to increase the amount of fish catch (44.0%), while temperature variations had no effect on the amount of fish catch. But it is also imperative to note that majority (52.2%) of the respondents reported that drought affected the amount of fish catch negatively. The study further showed that fishing techniques change a lot due to weather and climate variability. For example, the study revealed that during strong 72 winds and storms most fisher folk (64.4% and 71.4% respectively) prefer using trappings and long lines instead of the usual methods such as gill nets. During high rainfall, most of the fisher folk (63.9%) use poisoning, splashing and trapping instead of the usual methods. However, variation in temperature was reported by most respondents not to have any effect on fishing technique. The findings of this study as presented in chapter four showed that weather and climate variability has a lot of impact of the equipments used for fishing. Majority of the respondents reported that strong winds (63.6%), storms (50.4%) and high rainfall (49.9%) destroy fishing equipments and even lead to submergence of the equipments. The study further revealed that the above effects of weather and climate variability had an overall impact on the livelihood of the fisher folk. Most of them according to the findings of this study had lost their daily incomes (99.7%), 99.4% had reduced access to food due to loss of revenue from fishing, 93.0% had lost fishing equipments, 66.9% stayed longer period away from home and even others (82.1%) at some point of time had abandoned fishing for other economic activities. Most of the fisher folk who had abandoned fishing had resorted to farming (80.4%), small scale business (70.5%) and boat repairing (42.0%). 73 5.3. Conclusions The conclusion from this study is that weather and climate variability has affected fishing and livelihood activities in Mbita Division, Homa bay County. The effects range from direct impacts on the fisher folk themselves such as loss of lives and livelihood and impact on health, to destruction of fishing equipments, long duration of fishing, reduced fish catch and change in fishing techniques. Some of the fisher-folk have been forced to seek alternative sources of livelihood such as farming, small businesses and boda boda operator, but some of these are not sustainable due to prevailing economic conditions and size of investment. Therefore, there is need to enhance resilience and adoption of sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies. This conclusion is supported by The ISCC (2010), which states that due to climate change, the fish catch continues to decline. The small scale fisher-folk suffers in poverty and disruption of their well being such as health, education and other social lives. The challenge is in the mitigation and adaptation strategies that are sustainable. 5.4: Recommendations Based on the findings of this study, the following policy recommendations are made: i. The findings showed that weather and climate variability has affected the fisher folk in terms of loss of lives, injuries and loss of equipments. It is thus recommended that the government and other stakeholders in 74 the fishing industry should assist the fisher-folk acquire modern equipments that will reduce the risks and improve on their safety. ii. The findings of this study also revealed that weather and climate variability has led to shorter fishing durations and less fish catch over the years. It is therefore recommended that the fisher-folk should be empowered to diversify their livelihood activities to areas such as fish farming to enhance their resilience. iii. The findings of the study showed that weather and climate variability has led to fisher folk adopt destructive fishing methods such as poisoning. Thus, it is recommended that the government through relevant ministries like fisheries should educate the fisher-folk on the long-term dangers of using these methods. Community policing should be used to nab the culprits. iv. The government and other agencies should conduct climate-change risk and social impact assessments when evaluating mitigation and adaptation alternatives and include analyses of distributional impacts of such alternatives. 5.5: Suggestion for Further Research Following the findings of the study, the following suggestions for further research are put forth for consideration; i. This study was limited to Mbita Division in Mbita District. It could also be replicated on other regions where fishing is one of the economic activities of the communities to compare the findings. 75 ii. 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You do not have to write your name anywhere in the Questionnaire. Part A: Socio Economic Characteristics 1. What is your sex? (Please tick one) o Male o Female 2. What is your age group? (Please tick one) o Below 21 years o 21-30 years o 31-40 years o 41-50 years o Above 50 years 3. What is your marital status? (Please tick one) o Single o Married o Divorced o Widowed o Separated 4. If yes, what is the highest level of your education? (Please tick one) o None-literate o Primary school o Secondary school o A Level o Tertiary/middle college o University o Other specify ____________________________________________ 85 5. What is your other source of income apart from fishing? (Please tick one) o Agriculture (farmer) o Manual work o Hand out o Net Mender o Other specify _________________________________________________ 6. What is your income per month? (Please tick one) o Below 5,000 o 5,000-15,000 o 15,001-25,000 o 25,001-35,000 o Over 35,000 7. How many people live in your household? (Please tick one) o Below 5 o 5-10 o Over 10 Part B: Impact of weather and climate variability on fisher folk 8. Has variability of weather and climate such as strong winds, high rainfall, storm, drought, flooding, and high temperatures had any effect on your fishing activities (Please tick one) o Yes o No 9. Has variability of weather and climate such as storm, drought, flooding, and reduction in lake water levels had any effect on the fisher folk in Mbita Division? (Please tick one) o Yes o No 86 10. What are the effects of weather and climate variability on fisher folk (Tick the appropriate box) Weather Loss of life as a Sickness of Loss of No effect Variability result of boat fisher folk fishing gear submergence due to body in water injuries Strong winds Calm condition Storm High rainfall Moderate rainfall Low rainfall Drought Flood High temperature Low temperature Moderate temperature 11. What are the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing duration (Tick the appropriate box) Weather Short time Variability Strong winds Calm condition Storm High rainfall Moderate rainfall Low rainfall Drought Flood High temperature Low temperature Moderate temperature Normal time Longer time No fishing at all 87 Part C: Impact of weather and climate variability on fish catch 12. Indicate the impact of the following variability of weather and climate on fish catch around Mbita Division Weather Very low Low Moderate/ High Very High Variability normal Strong winds Calm condition Storm High rainfall Moderate rainfall Low rainfall Drought Flood High temperature Low temperature Moderate temperature Part D: Impact of weather and climate variability on fishing techniques 13. Has variability in climate such as storm, drought, flooding, and reduction in lake water levels had any effect on your fishing techniques (Please tick one) o Yes o No 14. Indicate the impact of the following variability of weather and climate on fishing technique around Mbita Division (Tick the appropriate box) Weather Use of usual fishing Use other techniques Variability method (Gillnets, beach (Trapping, hook and long seines, cast nets, lift nets, lines, handlines, splashing and handlines) poisoning) Strong winds Calm condition Storm High rainfall Moderate rainfall Low rainfall Drought Flood High temperature Low temperature Moderate temperature 88 15. What are the effects of weather and climate variability on your fishing equipments (boats, Nets, engine or clothing for propelling boat) (Tick the appropriate box) Weather Destroy Submerged No effect Variability Strong winds Calm condition Storm High rainfall Moderate rainfall Low rainfall Drought Flood High temperature Low temperature Moderate temperature Part E: Effect of weather and climate variability on livelihood 16. Has variability in weather and climate such as storm, drought, flooding, and reduction in lake water levels e.t.c. had any effect on your livelihood as a fisher folk (Please tick one) o Yes o No 17. What impacts has weather and climate variability had on your livelihood? (Please tick all that apply) □ Loss of income from fishing □ Had to abandon fishing at some point for other economic activities □ Fishing equipment destroyed or lost □ Had to be away from home for sometime in search of good fishing sites □ Loss of membership to fishing cooperative □ Conflict with other fisher folk over fishing areas □ Reduced access to food due to loss of revenue from fishing □ Risk of malnutrition and under-nutrition by family due to reduced access to fish for a source of protein □ Other specify ______________________________________________________ 89 18a). Do you know any fisher folk who has abandoned fishing due to the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing activity in your location (Please tick one) o Yes o No 18b). If yes, what are their coping and adaptive strategies? (Please tick all that apply □ Farming □ Small scale business □ Boat repairing □ Fish trader □ Other specify ______________________________________________________ 19. Comment on how this has impacted on their livelihood. _______________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________ ___________________________ Thank you very much for your cooperation and may God bless you. 90 APPENDIX II: INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR OFFICIAL FROM FISHERIES DEPARTMENT Dear Sir/Madam, This questionnaire is to help in gathering information on the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing activities and fishers’ coping and adaptive strategies in Mbita Division. The major aim is to identify the effects of changes in Rainfall, Temperature and Wind in Fishing Activities in Mbita Division. The answer you will give will go along way into improving the situation posed by effects of climate variability. Please respond as honestly as you can to all the Questions. Feel free to make further comments you may want to. The answers you give will be treated with utmost confidentiality. You do not have to write your name anywhere in the Questionnaire. Comment on the following in relation to weather and climate variability and fishing in your area of jurisdiction (a) Fish catch over the recent past ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… (b) Fishing methods adopted by fisher folk ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… (c) Livelihood activities of the fisher folk ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… 91 (d) Fishing range covered by fisher folk ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… (e) Conflicts on fisheries resources ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… 92 APPENDIX III: INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR OFFICIAL FROM METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT Dear Sir/Madam, This questionnaire is to help in gathering information on the effects of weather and climate variability on fishing activities and fishers’ coping and adaptive strategies in Mbita Division. The major aim is to identify the effects of changes in Rainfall, Temperature and Wind in Fishing Activities in Mbita Division. The answer you will give will go along way into improving the situation posed by effects of climate variability. Please respond as honestly as you can to all the Questions. Feel free to make further comments you may want to. The answers you give will be treated with utmost confidentiality. You do not have to write your name anywhere in the Questionnaire. (a)Comment on the weather conditions experienced in the area over the recent past ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… b) Do the changes in weather conditions have any impact on the lake? ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………… 93 APPENDIX IV: RESEARCH BUDGET S/N ITEM 1. PROPOSAL PREPARATION Printing paper 4 reams @500 Foolscaps 1 ream @ 500 2 pens @25 and 2 pencils @ 20 Photocopy 30 copies 30 pages @ 4 Binding 30 copies @ 100 Sub Total 2. 3. 4. 5. EQUIPMENT Digital Camera 12.1 pixel @ 25,000 Memory card 8GB @ 7,200 GPS @ 11,500 Laptop (HP) @ 60,000 1 HP laserJet F4280 printer @ 6,000 Printer cartridge 3 colour & 3BW @ 1,800 Modem @ 3,000 + airtime 8 months @ 1,000 Sub Total AMOUNT IN KSHS 2,000.00 500.00 90.00 3,600.00 3,000.00 9,190.00 25,000.00 7,200.00 11,500.00 60,000.00 6,000.00 1,800.00 11,000.00 122,500.00 PILOT SURVEY Research permit @ 2,000 Photocopy 10 Questionnaire 8 pages @ 4 2 Note books @ 50 2 pens and pencils @ 50 Local travel Mbita-Nairobi @ 1,000 Subsistence for 5 days @ 1,500 Sub Total 2,000.00 320.00 100.00 100.00 4,000.00 7,500.00 14,020.00 FIELD DATA COLLECTION Questionnaire photocopy 96 questions 8 pages @ 4 Interview guide photocopy 30 guides 1 pg @4 10 pens and 10 pencils @ 45 Field note books 5 @ 50 Communication @ 100 Local travel @ 150 Mbita-Nairobi return 5 trips @ 1,000 Subsistence for 4 field assistants for 30 days@ 500 Sub Total 3,072.00 120.00 450.00 250.00 3,000.00 1,500.00 5,000.00 60,000.00 73,392.00 DATA ANALYSIS SPSS version 15.0 @ 2,200 Topographical maps 4 @ 150 Subsistence for Scientists 2,200.00 600.00 10,000.00 94 6. Subsistence for 2 assistants @ 3,000 Subsistence for 1 technical (lab) assistance in map analysis Sub Total 2,000.00 20,800.00 THESIS PREPARATION 5 pens @ 25 and 3 pencils @ 10 Foolscaps 4 reams @ 500 Printing paper 10 reams @ 500 Photocopy of 3 copies of 3 drafts 150 pages @ 4 Sub Total 135.00 2,000.00 5,000.00 5,000.00 12,135.00 TOTAL 6,000.00 252,037.00