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Interaction between Climate Change and the Cryosphere A joint Nordic effort to integrate cryosphere dynamics in 49 Global Earth System Models Interaction between Climate Change and the Cryosphere A joint Nordic effort to integrate cryosphere dynamics in Global Earth System Models NordForsk, Stensberggata 25, N-0170 Oslo, Norway www.nordforsk.org Org.nr. 971 274 255 Editor: Jostein Sundet, NordForsk Cover: Bødalsbreen Glacier, Norway. Photo: FCG/shutterstock Design: Jan Neste, jnd Printed by: 07 Group, august 2016 ISSN 1504-8640 Interaction between Climate Change and the Cryosphere A joint Nordic effort to integrate cryosphere dynamics in Global Earth System Models 1 Contents 3 4 6 8 Preface The Nordic Research Collaboration, an example of Best Practices The main climate challenges and the Nordic countries Important accomplishments of the ICCC High impact research findings in the NCoEs 12 [1] Arctic air pollution effects on cryosphere 16 [2] Temperature-albedo response 20 [3] Carbon cycle in a changing Arctic 24 [4] Freshwater and coastal areas 26 [5] Changes in ice dynamics 30 [6] Improving estimates of ice sheet mass changes 34 [7] Ice Nucleation Counter 36 [8] Improvements of Earth System Models (ESMs) 40 [9] Outreach: The Ice School 44 The Top-level Research Initiative 2 Preface This report by the programme committee summarizes the Nordic research collaboration in the highly successful Interaction between Climate Change and the Cryosphere (ICCC) programme and highlights the international quality research carried out in three Nordic Centres of Excellence (NCoE): There has been extensive research cooperation between these three NCoEs as well as a unique collaboration in developing graduate schools with cooperative PhD education between Nordic universities. The report summarizes world-leading research on the interaction between climate change and the cryosphere – the term for areas of the Earth where water is frozen – ice on sea, rivers and lakes, snow cover, glaciers, permafrost and ice caps. Furthermore, this report shows how the programme enabled Nordic scientists to bring Nordic cooperation in cryosphere science to a new level, leading to new integrated research of the cryosphere in our region and providing a strong foundation for future collaboration at both the Nordic and the international level. • Stability and Variation of Arctic Land Ice (SVALI), • Cryosphere-Atmosphere Interactions in a Changing Arctic Climate (CRAICC), • Depicting Ecosystem-Climate Feedbacks from Permafrost, Snow and Ice (DEFROST). The Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) mandate was to oversee the scientific quality in the research done in the ICCC sub-programme in TRI. The SAB consisted of the following members: • Mark C. Serreze (Chair), Director, National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Professor, Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, USA • Isabelle Bey, Executive Director, Centre for Climate Systems Modeling, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland • Michiel R. van den Broeke, Professor, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands • Philippe Huybrechts, Professor, Earth System Science and Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit, Brussels, Belgium • Hans-Wolfgang Hubberten, Professor, Head of AWI Research Unit, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany The programme committee (PC) members are appointed by the funders of the TRI programme. The PC consisted of the following members: • Magnus Friberg (Chair), The Swedish Research Council • Harri Hautala, Academy of Finland • Kristján Kristjánsson, Reykjavik University • Herman Farbrot, The Research Council of Norway • Shafqat Abbas Khan, Technical University of Denmark 3 The Nordic Research Collaboration, an example of Best Practices The people engaged in ICCC, whether they are researchers, students, programme committee members, non-Nordic science advisors or NordForsk staff, all agree that this has been an outstanding collaboration. Key reasons for this include: way to address ice and snow on all scales, from nanoscale processes forming ice nucleus in clouds, to field stations observing the thawing peat bogs and to global satellite-based observations of glaciers. Further, there is a need for observation scientists to work with numerical modellers and computer scientists to do the parametrization, the algorithms and the hands-on computer coding. First, the ICCC involves the very best researchers and institutions in the Nordic region through a unique common pot funding model. This makes it possible to base the set-up of the programme, the calls for proposals and the evaluation more on what is to be done and who can do it best, than on which country applicants come from. This is rare in international research collaboration, where the norm is for each country to support only its own scientists, apply its own conditions to the funding and, in the worst case, grant funds only on the basis of its own priorities. Third, ICCC is part of the Top-level Research Initiative with a strong political backing. The Nordic Prime Ministers expressed a common political will to put money into research and innovation on climate and the environment at the time the Top-level Research Initiative was launched. Today, the political support is maintained in the Top-level Research Initiative’s high-level management board and in the Nordic research funding organizations of all five countries represented in the Programme Committee. This enables the Programme Committee to emphasize all aspects of collaboration within ICCC and, more importantly, to ensure that the improvements suggested by the Science Advisory Board are implemented. Second, working together towards a common and a well-defined goal has been an important factor driving the cooperation between institutions and individuals from different disciplines of research and society. This has made it possible to describe the focus of the ICCC in one sentence – Integrating the Cryosphere (snow and ice) dynamics into global climate models. Finally, the programme builds on a long tradition of Nordic cooperation based on common history, values and trust. This spirit of cooperation has enabled joint efforts in many fields of research, often managed by NordForsk and other Nordic institutions. More than once, the Nordic way, with common pot funding, has been highlighted as the best, but unachievable, model of European cooperation, e.g. in the European Joint Programming Initiatives. The interaction of frozen water with the rest of the climate system is complex and involves poorly understood feedbacks on many geophysical, biological and societal scales. There is a need for specialists from many fields of science to work in an integrative 4 The Nordic Prime Ministers at the Riksgränsen ski resort in Sweden 2008, where they drew up the Riksgränsen Declaration which laid the foundation for the largest joint Nordic effort to promote research and innovation ever undertaken, focusing on climate, energy and the environment, later known as the Top-level Research Initiative (TRI): Geir H. Haarde, Jens Stoltenberg, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Fredrik Reinfeldt, Matti Vanhanen. Photo: Johannes Jansson/norden.org The Programme Committee emphasizes that the successful model of Nordic research cooperation must be continued and that the ICCC programme can serve as an example of how to bring this cooperation to the next level. The successes of ICCC, with a rather modest amount of funding, high impact results and best practices in research collaboration, all point forwards to a new research programme that will build upon this success. 5 The main climate challenges and the Nordic countries The Nordic countries are part of the Arctic, an area where cryosphere processes are prominent and which is already much affected by climate change. Emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollution cause rapid changes in the Arctic cryosphere and accelerate Arctic and global warming, and thus have a direct impact on the Nordic societies. Through the ICCC programme, the Nordic countries jointly invest to understand the cryosphere – including permafrost, snow, glaciers and sea ice – and its interactions with the Earth System. A better description of the mechanisms acting on the Arctic cryosphere, climate system and ecosystems improves the Earth System Models, leading to better predictions of future climate change and its impacts on our societies. The NCoEs address three of these (melting land ice, sea level changes, clouds and climate sensitivity), and the knowledge gained in these efforts will provide new important input to the sixth IPCC assessment report (probably due in 2020/2021). The NCoEs also have assessed and defined several future challenges of key importance relating to future climate challenges identified by the WCRP and IPCC: • Understanding and describing new, central physical processes in the climate system (ice, ocean, land, atmosphere and interaction between these). • Improving projection of rapid changes, in particular for ice sheets and reducing the uncertainty of mass changes of the Greenland Ice sheet. Themes such as the melting of ice and thawing of permafrost, as well as aerosols, cloud forming processes sea level rise are studied in the NCoEs and have provided new and important insight over the five years the NCoEs have been active. • Understanding the origin and variability of natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and quantifying their impact on the Earth system. Many challenges remain to be addressed for the years to come. As identified by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and repeated in the last IPCC report, these may be categorised in five science areas: • Understanding the change of uptake of carbon in the biosphere. • Understanding the role of freshwater in the ocean circulation in the Arctic region. • Melting land ice • Sea level change Nordic countries are major contributors of scientific knowledge in these fields and will continue to offer insight in the future, in part thanks to the ICCC programme. • Fresh water availability • Climate extremes • Clouds and climate sensitivity 6 Important results of the ICCC programme are: • Has conducted experiments and modelling related to sea spray aerosol and its climate impact in a changing Arctic climate. Temperature has to be considered in the air-sea exchange. • Highly successful in the education and training of PhD students and Postdocs in the field of Earth System Sciences and provided efficient networking frameworks for the young scientists. • Mass and energy exchange has been parameterized based on long term observations for all major vegetation types in the boreal and Arctic biomes. • It is essential to find ways to maintain and develop the Nordic leadership that it has now established. • Knowledge of emissions of marine aerosols, including sea-salt, DMS and organic compounds has progressed considerably. • Has brought Nordic cooperation in cryosphere-climate science to a new level. • All glaciology-related courses held at collaborating university are now mutually recognized by the other member universities. • New use of data from satellites (GRACE, ICES at and Cryosat-2) has been ground-breaking, facilitating better understanding of the mass balance and surface elevation changes. • The use of neural networks to fill gaps in methane flux data time series • Innovative work in glacier hydrology, ice velocity mapping over Svalbard and Greenland • Progress in the research on glacier volume changes in the 20th Century, glacier hydrology, calving mechanism and implementation and coupling of glaciers in Earth System Models. • Has addressed the high sensitivity of Arctic climate to black carbon emissions compared to middle latitudes. • Building of the Nordic Ice Nucleus Counter. 7 Important accomplishments of the ICCC The ICCC was initiated as a direct response to the identified need to better understand the cryosphere and changes in it and to parametrize cryosphere processes. This comprises important input to global climate and Earth System Models (ESMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the future changes to the Earth’s climate system. In addition to this, ICCC seeks to increase the scientific quality, efficiency, competitiveness and visibility of the Nordic cryosphere research via collaboration within the Nordic region and beyond, e.g. by supporting and educating early career scientists – the next generation of earth system scientists. The ICCC programme has fostered a high number of PhD students and Postdocs, of which 1/2 and 2/3, respectively, came from non-Nordic countries. The NCoEs provide an outstanding research environment for PhDs and Postdocs. This is evident in the fact that many new young scientists have been trained and are now playing leading roles in a number of applications for national, Nordic and international (EU) competitive research funds. The new PhDs and Postdocs will also have impact on science in the future, as many of these have an interdisciplinary focus. 8 The Nordic countries have long been well represented in international collaboration and networks. One very tangible example is the number of Nordic researchers actively involved in writing and editing the IPCC fifth assessment report, as well as the number of Nordic contributions to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of scientific papers published in high profile journals and the overall high visibility of the NCoEs is further proof of their international scientific and societal impact. 9 High impact research findings in the NCoEs [1-9] 10 SMEAR2 Photo: NordForsk/Terje Heiestad 11 [1] Arctic air pollution effects on cryosphere 12 Holtedahlfonna glacier, The Exilfjellet-tre Kronor mountain komplex, central-western Spitsbergen. Svalbard. Photo: Erlend Bjørtvedt (CC-BY-SA) /Wikimedia commons 13 [1] Arctic air pollution effects on cryosphere Black Carbon (BC) is a fine particle formed by incomplete combustion, often from the burning of fossil fuels or forests. Due to its colour and unlike most aerosols, BC absorbs visible light and warms the atmosphere. The warming effect of BC is intensified in the Arctic where it decreases the surface reflectivity of snow and ice, also called albedo, and hastens their melt. Despite its importance for Arctic climate change, little is known about BC loadings in the area and its effect on the albedo. Since the beginning of the ICCC programme, significant progress in BC studies is achieved. pollution are likely situated within the Arctic. This is particularly alarming since BC emitted at high latitudes will more easily make its way to snow and ice surfaces, resulting in a strong warming response. This was also shown in an ESM study, which investigated the contribution of BC emitted in mid- and north latitudes to temperature change in the Arctic. For example, BC emitted from gas flaring in northern Russia results in a fivefold temperature response in comparison with BC transported from mid-latitudes to polar regions. Black carbon and dust originating from surrounding ice-free areas also affect the melt of ice sheets and glaciers. However, the role of the particle life cycle on and within the ice remains unclear. A novel model framework was developed to study the transport of black carbon within the ice, including the seasonal burial in snow, transport within the ice and melt out in summer. The result shows that the release of black carbon from the ice accelerates the melting of ice sheets. In a series of unique experiments, two types of soot from burning of oil and wood were artificially deposited on natural snow surfaces. The experiments show that soot deposited onto a snow surface reduces the snow albedo. Furthermore, a new hypothesis that BC in the melting snow reduces its density was presented and confirmed. Less dense snow is less reflective and melts faster. Therefore, BC (Black Carbon) deposition enhances the snow-albedo feedback - one of the important drivers of the Arctic warming. An ice core from Svalbard covering the last 300 years, was studied as a part of the ICCC program. It revealed that BC increased in the ice core during the last few decades (Fig. 1). Independent lake sediment records from northern Finland showed similar trends. This work questions the previous general concept of a recent decline in the anthropogenic air pollution in the Arctic. Moreover, the main sources of the observed 14 Svalbard, Holtedahlfonna BC concentration (μg L-1) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 Figure 1. Black Carbon concentrations in the Holtedahlfonna, Svalbard ice core during the last 300 years. The red line represents 10-year averages. 15 1950 2000 Year [2] Temperature-albedo response Norbert Pirk was a doctoral student at Lund University and the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS). He used flux chambers and other advanced technical equipment to study the production of methane and CO2 in the tundra on Svalbard. 16 DEFROST, Svalbard. Photo: NordForsk/Terje Heiestad – Based on past interviews, students have been very positive about the project. 17 [2] Temperature-albedo response Seasonal snow is very important for the radiation in the Arctic due to its high albedo. According to laboratory experiments, snow albedo is stable at temperatures below -10 °C and decreases when temperatures rise above -5 °C. Such studies are widely used to describe snow properties in models, but they might not represent atmosphere-cryosphere interactions realistically. Recent analysis of satellite measurements of spring snow-covered land surfaces in high latitudes showed that surface albedo decreases already at -10 °C and even -15 °C in some regions (Fig. 4). Moreover, this finding indicates that some areas in the Arctic are more sensitive to warming and, therefore, can exhibit climate changes faster. 18 Arctic Archipelago Northern continental Canada Albedo, unitless Labrador Peninsula Albedo, unitless –15°C 0.8 Albedo, unitless –10°C 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -30°C -20°C -20°C 0°C 10°C –10°C 0.8 0.3 -30°C -20°C -20°C 0°C 10°C -30°C -20°C Figure 2. Relationship between surface air temperature in spring and albedo of snow-covered land for three regions in the Arctic. Albedo decreases at much lower temperatures than predicted from laboratory experiments. 19 -20°C 0°C 10°C [3] Carbon cycle in a changing Arctic “NordForsk should continue to fund the NCoE program, or something similar to it, in the future. The model is fundamentally sound. By providing a mechanism focused largely on supporting graduate students and Postdocs and promoting student mobility, the effort appears to have advanced Nordic research and collaboration between Nordic nations. In general, the three centres under the ICCC have been able to leverage ‘base’ funding provided by NordForsk to result in greater scientific productivity.” – SAB report 2016. 20 Kevo National Park, Finland. Photo: NordForsk/Anne Riiser 21 [3] Carbon cycle in a changing Arctic It has been shown that the melting sea ice impacts soils far inland. When the sun-reflective sea ice cover is retreating due to rising temperatures, the dark open seawater absorbs energy from the sun which leads to a regional increase in air temperature. As a result, permafrost can thaw in nearby land and this subsequently leads to these areas releasing more methane, causing a positive feedback loop in the climate system (Fig. 3). Whereas the thawing of land permafrost is readily visible today, the subsea permafrost thaws much slower. Figure 3. Simplified representation of Arctic carbon fluxes that are influenced by sea ice retreat. On land, plants take up carbon while microorganisms in the soil produce methane and respire CO2. In the ocean, methane is released from thawing subsea permafrost, while CO2 is absorbed due to an under-saturation of CO2 in the water compared with the atmosphere. The arrows do not represent the strength of each flux. Numbers at the top of the figure represent estimated uptake/release of carbon (Tg carbon / year). 22 In a warming Arctic, as the thawed layer of carbon-rich soil thickens, microbial activity is boosted, and the production of greenhouse gases accelerates. Soil characteristics along with climate and permafrost data are being documented in detail, to understand the geochemical processes behind the response of the carbon cycle to climate change. To help determine feedback-increased soil carbon emissions, ICCC researchers also contributed to a new pan-arctic inventory of carbon content in the upper 3 m of soil (Fig. 4) This is particularly relevant in lowlands where the soil coverage is thick and rich in carbon. In mountainous areas, where the soils are thinner and hold less carbon, increased temperatures lead to increased vegetation cover and, thus, an uptake of carbon from the atmosphere. Arctic plant communities will likely change under a warmer climate. Predicted increases in snow cover will play an important role, influencing the length of the growing season, permafrost and hydrology. To investigate how increased snow cover thickness and duration affect plant photosynthesis, an experiment with snow fences was set up in two sub-arctic tundra vegetation types. Thickness of snow increased in the test plots, and the cover lasted longer in spring. Under these circumstances, plants were more efficient in light use and photosynthesis. This is likely due to more moisture and nutrients in the soils as there is more water and permafrost thawed. There was also an observed vegetation shift towards more grasses since dry areas get wetter. Figure 4. Soil organic carbon pool (kg C m−2) contained in the 0–3 m depth interval of the northern circumpolar permafrost zone. Points show field site locations for 0–3 m depth carbon inventory measurements; field sites with 1 m carbon inventory measurements number in the thousands and are too numerous to show. 23 [4] Freshwater and coastal areas Large amounts of terrestrial organic carbon from coastal erosion in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and Russian-Arctic rivers are released into near coastal waters. This carbon can be converted into greenhouse gases, but it can also be buried in sediments and thereby slow down the carbon climate feedback. In close collaboration with Russian scientists, ICCC researchers contributed to the SWERUS expedition in 2014 on the research vessel ODEN to the Laptev Sea to study these phenomena to further understand the role of carbon from runoff and erosions in the Arctic sea. The amount of freshwater coming from melting glaciers is likely to increase as glaciers are retreating, which may affect the nearby fjords and continental shelves. Observations in a fjord in West Greenland in 2013 showed that meltwater increases uptake of CO2 from the air, especially during summer time. Fresh meltwater blends into the fjord water leading to an under-saturation in CO2. Moreover, it causes upwelling of nutrients that feed the biological system which in-turn increases the productivity that demands more CO2. 24 Lake Pielinen, Finland. Photo: Stocksnapper/Shutterstock 25 [5] Changes in ice dynamics “Interaction between Climate Change and the Cryosphere is a sub-programme under the Top-level Research Initiative (TRI), a unique Nordic venture for research on climate, energy and the environment. International research collaboration is a necessity to increase the quality and excellence of research, and the ICCC is an excellent example of the best practices of Nordic research groups doing high impact science on the international arena of climate and cryosphere science.” – SAB report 2016. 26 Austfonna, Svalbard. Photo: Michael S. Nolan AGE/NTB/scanpix 27 [5] Changes in ice dynamics Svalbard, Austfonna Northing UTM33X (km) 16 16 12 12 8900 8860 Basin-3 8820 2 50m contours Drainage basins Easting UTM33X (km) 700 740 5 cm.day Apr 30 to May 11, 2012 Rapid acceleration of mass loss observed in glaciers in both Greenland and Antarctica in recent years is believed to be due to changes in glacier dynamics. However, many aspects of the response of ice sheet and glaciers dynamics to a warming climate are poorly understood as well as underrepresented in models. Long-term observations of surface velocities by ICCC partners on glaciers around the North Atlantic reveal changes caused by the flow of meltwater at the glacier bed. 8 8 4 4 2 -1 0 0 Velocity (m day−1) Jan 30 to Feb 10, 2013 A dramatic surge at the Austfonna ice cap in Svalbard in 2008–2014 involved a multi-annual acceleration (Fig. 5). At the beginning of each summer, the glacier velocity increased, but instead of going back to its winter normal flow, the glacier moved continuously faster than previous years until the surge occurred in 2014. The surge propagated the acceleration to the whole basin, and is believed to be caused by lubrication of the glacier bed. Modelling of the ice cap confirmed that 28 5 cm.day -1 Cummulative Positive Degree Day (°C) Horizontal velocity (m day−1) 200 6 100 0 GPS 4 GPS 5 GPS 3 GPS 2 GPS 1 4 2 0 July January ‘09 July January ‘10 July January ‘11 July January ‘12 July January ‘13 Figure 5. Basin surge at the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard the LEFT MOST inset shows the location of Austfonna. IN ADDITION, on the LEFT SIDE, velocity maps are presented for early May 2012 and early February 2013. The RIGHT INSET describes cumulative surface melt (red bars) and surface velocities (lower part of inset). the conditions at the glacier bed dramatically changed over a period of only a few months before surging. In Iceland, similar acceleration of glaciers is observed during outburst floods originating from geothermal subglacial lake. The results show that water flow at the glacier bed controls variations in surface speed. Monitoring surges in Svalbard and outburst floods on Icelandic glaciers thus provides an opportunity to study processes that may determine the future of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. 29 [6] Improving estimates of ice sheet mass changes “It is the view of the SAB that the major ICCC objectives have been met and that NordForsk funding has been invested wisely.” 30 Drangajökull, Iceland. Photo: Gregory Gerault, Hemis/Alamy Stock Photo 31 [6] Improving estimates of ice sheet mass changes Monitoring the elevation of ice sheets and glaciers was brought to a new level with the launch of the CryoSat-2 and Landsat 8 satellites. Researchers from the ICCC collaborated with ESA and NASA to calibrate elevation signal from CryoSat-2 and thereby significantly improved the measurement accuracy of glaciers mass changes. Drangajökull 1946-1960 1960-1975 Past mass balance of glaciers was also analysed using archived aerial photographs as old as from the 1930’s. Innovative photogrammetry techniques were used to calculate the surface elevation of glaciers with high accuracy from analogue images. These data are important for understanding the past response of glacier to climate variations, and validating models that are used to make future predictions. Figure 6. The average annual elevation change of Drangajökull during six intervals since 1946. Red indicates thinning and blue thickening. 32 1975-1985 1985-1994 1994-2005 33 2005-2011 [7] Ice Nucleation Counter “Through the end of the project, the centres continued to collaborate, particularly between projects CRAICC and DEFROST that have broadly similar interests. The successful e-science proposal (eSTICC), involving collaboration between DEFROST, SVALI and CRAICC is notable in this regard, and will help in maintaining science productivity after the sunset of NordForsk funding for the NCoEs.” – SAB report 2016. 34 Clouds. Photo: NordForsk/Terje Heiestad [7] Ice Nucleation Counter Clouds in the Arctic can either cool the atmosphere by reflecting incoming radiation back to space, or warm it by trapping heat emitted by the earth surface. The scientific community is still working on understanding the key process related to the cloud formation in cold climates - ice nucleation that initiates cloud development. Ice nucleation is the phase transition from water to ice when seed particles, such as aerosols, are present. Ice Nuclei Counters are instruments that measure these particles. aimed at direct observation on ice nucleation properties of Arctic aerosol particles. Enthusiastic specialists were brought together to further the ice nucleation research, which remains a major unsolved problem in atmosphere physics. When the instrument will be ready for installation and data collection, it will be deployed at Nordic and Arctic research stations. This will promote scientific understanding of ice cloud formation and evolution from microscopic to global scale, and will help to describe ice nucleation processes in climate models. Until recently, no Ice Nuclei Counters existed in the Nordic region, whilst worldwide none of the existing instruments were routinely deployed in the polar domains. A technology sharing agreement adopted in 2012 by ICCC partners and European colleagues from ETH Zurich and Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research made it possible to boost ice nucleation research by building the first Nordic Ice Nuclei Counters 35 [8] Improvements of Earth System Models (ESMs) 36 Melting water and sea, Greenland. Photo: NordForsk/Jostein K. Sundet “While the projects have led to may new collaborations, collaborations take time to develop, and as such, the full fruits of the ICCC NCoE effort will not be fully realized until perhaps years from now.” – SAB report 2016. 37 [8] Improvements of Earth System Models (ESMs) ESMs are useful tools to study feedback cycles because they enable analysis of system behaviour as a whole. Representation of the climate components however remains imperfect and new knowledge is constantly being implemented into ESMs. refreezing of meltwater at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet and Svalbard glaciers contributed to better understanding of the formation of ice layers and snow hydrology. The effect of snow albedo was also assessed in a regional climate model of Svalbard using observations from Lomonosovfonna ice cap. The results were used to improved snow parameterizations in the EC-Earth (European Centre for Earth) ESM. The dynamic vegetation-terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS has been customised for northern ecosystems to study Arctic carbon balance. The model investigates the vulnerability of high-latitude peatlands to climate change as well as feedback processes that could modulate regional and global climate change. Further, the upgrades are expected to be implemented into a regional climate model. There has been a great Nordic value with respect to experiments and modelling related to sea spray aerosol and its climate impact in a changing Arctic climate. The work has demonstrated that the effect of temperature on air-sea exchange should be addresses in the future. The updated GIPL permafrost model is now integrated into a regional climate to perform simulations of sub-sea as well as land-based permafrost that were lacking before. An ice sheet model is now integrated into the EC-Earth ESM. This model has been run until year 3000 following a type of “Business as usual” scenario, where high greenhouse gas emissions continue and peak in the early 22nd century. Even though greenhouse gas concentrations are levelling off after year 2200, the simulation shows that the mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet will continue with the same rate for the following centuries (Fig. 7). Changes in ice mass (i.e., in form of elevation changes and fresh water input to the ocean) will lead to large scale changes in the atmospheric and ocean circulation. This will then affect temperature and precipitation on the ice-sheet and so its surface mass balance. It is therefore important to include feedback mechanisms caused by ice sheet dynamics for long future climate projections. Boreal ecosystems respond to the warming by emitting more gaseous compounds into the atmosphere. These can modify the aerosol concentration. Aerosols impact cloud formation, -lifetime, -albedo, and other processes, affecting radiative balance, and can therefore potentially amplify or damp the effect of climate change. The NorESM1-CRAICC Earth System Model was developed to quantify these processes and improve predictions of future climate state. Until very recently, Earth System Models had a highly simplified representation of snow physics, including refreezing of meltwater and snow albedo, and they did not integrate dynamic ice sheet models. Within the ICCC, ground-breaking observations of 38 The Greenland ice sheet changes 3600 m 3300 m 3000 m 2700 m 2400 m 2100 m 1800 m 1500 m 1200 m 900 m 600 m 300 m 0m Pre-industrial RCP8.5 ( Year 2350-2379) Figure 7. Modelled Greenland ice sheet thickness averaged over a 30-year period from the pre-industrial control as well as two periods (2350-2379 and 2840-2869) simulated based on the “Business as usual” scenario. 39 RCP8.5 ( Year 2840-2869) [9] Outreach: The Ice School 40 SVALI, Greenland. Photo: NordForsk/Terje Heiestad 41 [9] Outreach: The Ice School The Ice School is an online learning platform that will inform the public and teach about glaciology and climate change (Fig. 8). Developed for students aged between 12 and 14, the website offers interactive and pedagogic information on the science of ice and provides a forum to exchange knowledge between teachers and researchers. The Ice School is available in all the Nordic languages as well as in English, German and French. NordForsk has produced films and a book, Solving the Climate Crisis – A Nordic Contribution , about the TRI where the ICCC centres of excellence are presented. Greenland. Photo: NordForsk/Jostein K. Sundet 42 Figure 8. The Ice-School website, an educational online platform about ice and climate. http://isskolen.dk/wp/?page_id=8102 43 The Top-level Research Initiative Nordic Centre of Excellence CRAICC CRAICC objectives have been to identify and quantify the major processes controlling Arctic warming and related feedback, in addition to outlining strategies to mitigate Arctic warming, and develop Nordic Earth System modelling. Head of CRAICC: Professor Markku Kulmala, University of Helsinki The Nordic Top-level Research Initiative (TRI) is the largest Nordic research and innovation venture to date and is within the topics of climate, energy and the environment. It was launched by the five Nordic Prime Ministers in 2007. The TRI was targeted as a Nordic flagship initiative at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference (COP15) in Copenhagen in 2009 with the aim of contributing to the global knowledge base within climate-related issues and challenges. All three centres have a large number of partner institutions in all of the Nordic countries, PhD students and courses. The ICCC was one of six sub-programmes under the Top-level Research Initiative and had three Nordic Centres of Excellence: The TRI has been evaluated by the independent consultancy firm DAMVAD, and their main conclusion is that the TRI has produced important scientific results and provided a major contribution to the Nordic research effort in the areas of climate, energy and the environment. Nordic Centre of Excellence SVALI The aims of SVALI were to develop more precise estimates of how fast the glaciers in the Arctic are melting, and to better understand the processes related to the speed of melting and the influence on hydrology and the dynamics of the ice. Head of NCoE SVALI: Professor Jon Ove Hagen, University of Oslo Nordic Centre of Excellence DEFROST DEFROST has gathered internationally recognized experts with the goal of understanding how changes in the cryosphere caused by climate change influence the ecosystem/geosphere processes trough changes in the Methane and CO2 stored in the soil, which directly affect climate. Head of DEFROST: Professor Torben R. Christensen, Lund University 44 48