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Introduction and context of the study 5 minutes Concept of Environmental Model 15 minutes Uncertainty & Variability, Modeling & Example Baseline development 15 minutes Scenario development 15 minutes Set of scenarios Cost benefit assessment 10 minutes Exercises 20 minutes Conclusion 10 minutes Name Affiliation David Saah; Co-Lead University of San Francisco, SIG Name Affiliation Phan Xuan Thieu Vinh University, Vietnam Mohd Zaki Hamzah; Co-Lead University Putra Malaysia Chalita Sriladda USAID-LEAD Khamla Phanvilay, Co-Lead National University of Laos Hoang Thi Thu Duyen Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Cao Thuy Anh Dalat University, Vietnam Ladawan Puangchit Kasetsart University, Thailand Chalermpol Samranpong Chiang Mai University, Thailand Do Anh Tuan Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Pham Thanh Nam USAID LEAF Vietnam Lyna Khan Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Peter Stephen USAID LEAF Bangkok Le Ba Thuong Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Hoang Vinh Phu Vinh University, Vietnam Napat Jakwattana University of Phayao, Thailand Vipak Jintana Kasetsart University, Thailand Nur Anishah Binti Aziz University Kebangsaan Malaysia Kulala Mulung PNG University of Technology Ratcha Chaichana Kasetsart University, Thailand Sureerat Lakanavichian Chiang Mai University, Thailand Somvilay Chanthalounnavong National University of Laos Thavrak Huon Royal University of Agriculture, Cambodia Vongphet Sihapanya National University of Laos Athsaphangthong Munelith USAID LEAF Laos David Ganz USAID LEAF Bangkok Attachai Jintrawet Chiang Mai University, Thailand Chi Pham, Project Coordinator USAID LEAF Bangkok Chanin Chiumkanokchai USAID LEAF Bangkok Kent Elliott US Forest Service Lam Ngoc Tuan Dalat University, Vietnam Beth Lebow US Forest Service Mark Fenn USAID Vietnam Forests & Deltas Geoffrey Blate US Forest Service Low Emission Land Use Planning (LELUP) SECTION 3. ANALYSIS OF FUTURE OPTIONS Overview Regional Climate Change Curriculum Development 1.1. Regulatory Assessments 1.2. Stakeholder Engagement 1.3. Planning & Development Goals & Objectives MONITORING & EVALUATION NEGOTIATING & PRIORITIZING IMPLEMENTATION PLAN ENABLING ENVIRONMENT Low Emission Land Use Planning ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT CONDITION ANALYSIS OF FUTURE OPTIONS 3.3. Scenario Assessment 2.1. Environment, Social, & Economic Data Needs 2.2. Understanding Historic Land Use Change 2.3. Data & Capacity Gap Assessment 3.1. Modeling Future Trends 3.2. Business as Usual Baseline Construction NOW Drivers of Change Scenario 3 + / BAU Scenario 2 + / - Goal / Objective Scenario 1 + / - Time/Space Rules of the Game M&E At the end of Section 3, learners will be able to: Recognize and apply the concept of modeling an environment including climate change Develop a baseline assessment with the BAU scenario including climate change Identify series of future potential scenarios and analyze their impacts (socio-economic, environmental) CLIMATE CHANGE Relevant aspects Understand Conceptual Model Quantify Mathematics Model Visualize Graphic Model Operationalize Operational Model Scientific discipline Conceptual/understanding Strategic decisions Tactical decisions + Average precipitation in the lower Mekong River basin Variability: The quality, state, or degree of being variable or changeable. Measure of variability: How much the performance of the group deviates from the mean or median. Uncertainty: The lack of certainty or a state of having limited knowledge Measurement of Uncertainty: A set of possible states or outcomes In the context of Climate change and Land use management, what are the components of uncertainty? Economic Social Environmental Institutional What are the common points and the differences between these terms and how would it influence a model? Variability Uncertainty Current state, threats and future state of deforestation in East Kalimantan, Indonesia •(A) Protected in relation to the area deforested (red) between 1997 and 2003. •(B) Threat map of future deforestation, produced from reclassifying the SFC map and masking out already deforested areas. •(C) Simulated deforestation in between 2003 (present) and 2013 (future at the time). Source: http://iopscience.iop.org/ Rapid Economic Growth Slower Economic Growth Climate Change and Agriculture, Chito P. Medina Concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere for the three emissions cases, 1990–2100 Scenarios Planning Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures. They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will come into play (UNEP 2002) NOW Drivers of Change BASELINE Performance Scenario Time/Space NOW Drivers of Change Scenario Performance Business As Usual (BAU) Time/Space NOW Drivers of Change Reference Level (Historic Mean) Time/Space Project goal Process design Scenario Contents 3 key steps: Clarify purpose Lay foundation Develop and test Stakeholders involvement Plausible Vivid Interactive By Xiang & Clarke Does it respond to the need of the stakeholders? Does it meet the purpose of the scenarios fixed before? Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Employment Biodiversity Forest Cover Water GHG Emissions +++ - -++ + ++ + + - -++ NOW Drivers of Change Figure 1: Simple example of scenario trade-offs1 Scenario 3 + / BAU Scenario 2 Goal / Objective Scenario 1 + / - Time/Space +/- Identification of significant impacts Measurement of benefits Measurement of costs Net value/ Ratio of Cost-Benefit We have moved through a process that allows us to determine a set of possible future scenarios that may allow us to move away from Business As Usual. 1.1 Regulatory Assessments 1.2 Stakeholder Engagement 1.3 Planning & Development Goals & Objectives Monitor and Evaluation Negotiate and Prioritize Implementation Plan Enabling Environment 2.1 Environment, Social, & Economic Data Needs Land Use Planning & Climate Change Assessment of Current Condition Analysis of Future Options 3.3 Scenario Assessment 2.2 Understanding Historic Land Use Change 2.3 Data & Capacity Gap Assessment 3.1 Modeling Future Trends 3.2 Business as Usual Baseline Construction Modeling the interaction of climate change: water availability and socio-economic scenarios on cereal production Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, AEA Group & University of East Anglia http://clarklabs.org Province of Manitoba: Guide for Conducting Municipal GHG Inventories and Forecasts in Manitoba Modeling REDD Baselines using IDRISI’s Land Change Modeler, IDRISI Focus Paper Climate Adaptation : Risk, Uncertainty, Decision making, UKCP Technical support, May 2013 Characterization Uncertainty for regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Mitigation Decision The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Clarke & Xiang Developing a scenario development approach and the alternative land use scenario, the case of Pakal, Benovo, SambikerepDistrict of Surabaya City