Download LELUP_3.0_Overview_2015_05

Introduction and context of the
study
5 minutes
Concept of Environmental Model
15 minutes
Uncertainty & Variability, Modeling & Example
Baseline development
15 minutes
Scenario development
15 minutes
Set of scenarios
Cost benefit assessment
10 minutes
Exercises
20 minutes
Conclusion
10 minutes
Name
Affiliation
David Saah; Co-Lead
University of San Francisco, SIG
Name
Affiliation
Phan Xuan Thieu
Vinh University, Vietnam
Mohd Zaki Hamzah; Co-Lead University Putra Malaysia
Chalita Sriladda
USAID-LEAD
Khamla Phanvilay, Co-Lead
National University of Laos
Hoang Thi Thu Duyen
Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam
Cao Thuy Anh
Dalat University, Vietnam
Ladawan Puangchit
Kasetsart University, Thailand
Chalermpol Samranpong
Chiang Mai University, Thailand
Do Anh Tuan
Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam
Pham Thanh Nam
USAID LEAF Vietnam
Lyna Khan
Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Peter Stephen
USAID LEAF Bangkok
Le Ba Thuong
Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam
Hoang Vinh Phu
Vinh University, Vietnam
Napat Jakwattana
University of Phayao, Thailand
Vipak Jintana
Kasetsart University, Thailand
Nur Anishah Binti Aziz
University Kebangsaan Malaysia
Kulala Mulung
PNG University of Technology
Ratcha Chaichana
Kasetsart University, Thailand
Sureerat Lakanavichian
Chiang Mai University, Thailand
Somvilay Chanthalounnavong National University of Laos
Thavrak Huon
Royal University of Agriculture, Cambodia Vongphet Sihapanya
National University of Laos
Athsaphangthong Munelith
USAID LEAF Laos
David Ganz
USAID LEAF Bangkok
Attachai Jintrawet
Chiang Mai University, Thailand
Chi Pham, Project Coordinator USAID LEAF Bangkok
Chanin Chiumkanokchai
USAID LEAF Bangkok
Kent Elliott
US Forest Service
Lam Ngoc Tuan
Dalat University, Vietnam
Beth Lebow
US Forest Service
Mark Fenn
USAID Vietnam Forests & Deltas
Geoffrey Blate
US Forest Service
Low Emission Land Use Planning (LELUP)
SECTION 3. ANALYSIS OF FUTURE OPTIONS
Overview
Regional Climate Change Curriculum Development
1.1. Regulatory Assessments
1.2. Stakeholder Engagement
1.3. Planning & Development
Goals & Objectives
MONITORING &
EVALUATION
NEGOTIATING
&
PRIORITIZING
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
ENABLING
ENVIRONMENT
Low
Emission
Land Use
Planning
ASSESSMENT
OF CURRENT
CONDITION
ANALYSIS OF
FUTURE
OPTIONS
3.3. Scenario Assessment
2.1. Environment, Social, &
Economic Data Needs
2.2. Understanding Historic Land
Use Change
2.3. Data & Capacity Gap
Assessment
3.1. Modeling Future Trends
3.2. Business as Usual Baseline
Construction
NOW
Drivers of Change
Scenario 3 + / BAU
Scenario 2 + / -
Goal / Objective
Scenario 1 + / -
Time/Space
Rules of the Game
M&E
At the end of Section 3, learners will be able to:

Recognize and apply the concept of modeling an
environment including climate change

Develop a baseline assessment with the BAU scenario
including climate change

Identify series of future potential
scenarios and analyze their impacts
(socio-economic, environmental)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Relevant aspects
Understand
Conceptual Model
Quantify
Mathematics Model
Visualize
Graphic Model
Operationalize
Operational Model
Scientific discipline

Conceptual/understanding

Strategic decisions

Tactical decisions
+
Average precipitation in the lower Mekong River basin
Variability:

The quality, state, or degree
of being variable or
changeable.
Measure of variability:

How much the performance
of the group deviates from
the mean or median.
Uncertainty:

The lack of certainty or a state of having limited knowledge
Measurement of Uncertainty:

A set of possible states or outcomes
In the context of Climate change and Land use
management, what are the components of
uncertainty?
Economic
Social
Environmental
Institutional
What are the common points and the differences between
these terms and how would it influence a model?
Variability
Uncertainty
Current state, threats and future
state of deforestation in East
Kalimantan, Indonesia
•(A) Protected in relation to the
area deforested (red) between
1997 and 2003.
•(B) Threat map of future
deforestation, produced from
reclassifying the SFC map and
masking out already deforested
areas.
•(C) Simulated deforestation in
between 2003 (present) and 2013
(future at the time).
Source: http://iopscience.iop.org/
Rapid Economic Growth
Slower Economic Growth
Climate
Change and
Agriculture,
Chito P.
Medina
Concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere for the three emissions cases,
1990–2100
Scenarios Planning
Scenarios are descriptions
of journeys to possible
futures. They reflect
different assumptions
about how current trends
will unfold, how critical
uncertainties will play out
and what new factors will
come into play (UNEP
2002)
NOW
Drivers of Change
BASELINE
Performance
Scenario
Time/Space
NOW
Drivers of Change
Scenario
Performance
Business As Usual (BAU)
Time/Space
NOW
Drivers of Change
Reference Level (Historic Mean)
Time/Space
Project goal
Process design
Scenario Contents
3 key steps:

Clarify purpose

Lay foundation

Develop and
test
Stakeholders involvement
Plausible
Vivid
Interactive
By Xiang & Clarke
Does it respond to the need of
the stakeholders?
Does it meet
the purpose
of the
scenarios
fixed before?
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Employment
Biodiversity
Forest Cover
Water
GHG
Emissions
+++
-
-++
+
++
+
+
-
-++
NOW
Drivers of Change
Figure 1: Simple example of scenario trade-offs1
Scenario 3 + / BAU
Scenario 2
Goal / Objective
Scenario 1 + / -
Time/Space
+/-

Identification of significant impacts

Measurement of benefits

Measurement of costs

Net value/ Ratio of Cost-Benefit
We have moved through a process that allows us to
determine a set of possible future scenarios that may
allow us to move away from Business As Usual.
1.1 Regulatory Assessments
1.2 Stakeholder Engagement
1.3 Planning & Development
Goals & Objectives
Monitor and
Evaluation
Negotiate
and Prioritize
Implementation
Plan
Enabling
Environment
2.1 Environment, Social, &
Economic Data Needs
Land Use
Planning
&
Climate
Change
Assessment
of Current
Condition
Analysis of
Future
Options
3.3 Scenario Assessment
2.2 Understanding Historic
Land Use Change
2.3 Data & Capacity Gap
Assessment
3.1 Modeling Future Trends
3.2 Business as Usual Baseline
Construction

Modeling the interaction of climate change: water availability and socio-economic
scenarios on cereal production Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, AEA
Group & University of East Anglia

http://clarklabs.org

Province of Manitoba: Guide for Conducting Municipal GHG Inventories and
Forecasts in Manitoba

Modeling REDD Baselines using IDRISI’s Land Change Modeler, IDRISI Focus Paper

Climate Adaptation : Risk, Uncertainty, Decision making, UKCP Technical support,
May 2013

Characterization Uncertainty for regional Climate Change Mitigation and
Adaptation Mitigation Decision

The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Clarke & Xiang

Developing a scenario development approach and the alternative land use
scenario, the case of Pakal, Benovo, SambikerepDistrict of Surabaya City