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Yearly and Seasonal Ground Temperature Variations in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado Heather Burnett, Kristen Sanders, Nic Sears, Zachary Trabold Environmental Field Studies, Fall 2010, Metropolitan State College of Denver Abstract: Climate change continues to be a growing concern in the World. Alpine landscapes, such as the tundra biome of Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado, have increasingly been looked to as indicators of climate change and its implications. From thirty temperature data loggers along Trail Ridge Road within the park, five were chosen for further investigation. Data loggers gathered temperature at two hour intervals over a two year period. Soil properties, aspect, and elevation were all recorded for analysis and correlation. We used two sample t-tests assuming unequal variance to establish statistical proof of warming or cooling. Yearly averages were also employed for graphs giving a simpler view of the results. Surface sensors for sites 3, 7, 17 and 25 showed temperature increases at their internal sensor buried just 10 cm below the surface, while site 10 showed cooling. Ground temperature as measured by the external sensor buried 30 to 85 cm exhibit predominately cooler temperatures for sites 3, 17, and 25, but warming at sites 10 and 7. These illustrate ground’s resilience to change but, an overall increasing temperature. Such studies are crucial in establishing ecosystem loss in response to climate change. Keywords: Alpine Tundra, Permafrost, Climate Change, Rocky Mountain National Park, Ground Temperature, Trail Ridge Road Introduction Global warming is of concern because even a seemingly minute change in global temperature as low as 1° C can alter 10% of all ecosystems based on Global Climate Models (GCMs). Biome distribution and species distribution are susceptible to 1°C to 2°C increases in global mean temperature (Leemans & Eickhaut, 2004). Tundra biomes are particularly susceptible to temperature changes and ecosystem disruption (Leemans & Eickhaut, 2004). Alpine systems and subarctic cold mountain environments commonly contain temporarily frozen ground called the active layer and permafrost (ground that remains frozen at 0°C or below for two or more consecutive years) (Kneisel, 2010). The temperature of the ground at these locations is typically regulated by solar radiation, snow cover thickness and duration, vegetation, as well as the organic layer and soil characteristics (Janke, 2005). With global temperatures on the rise, these regulatory factors could be influenced and locations with near-surface ground ice will experience extreme terrain degradation and substantial ecosystem impacts, including possible carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane gas release (Kneisel, 2010; Kvenvolden & Lorenson, 1993; Leemans & Eickhaut, 2004). This study focuses on the ground temperature changes in the active layer of tundra in a section of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) in Colorado. Determining if ground temperature changes are occurring can help park officials and decision makers manage potential effects and mitigate impacts (DOI et al., 2007). This information can then be applied to the Front Range of Colorado. Presently, there is a consensus amongst the scientific community that global warming is a reality and that global climate change (GCC) is taking place and will continue (IPCC, 2007). The causes of global warming include natural sources and events, but the main cause of concern is an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) from anthropogenic sources (IPCC, 2007). Since the mid-nineteenth century when the modern Industrial Revolution began, anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased beyond pre-Industrial Revolution levels of 280ppm to 388.59ppm as of November of 2010 (Butler et al., 2008; Tans, 2010). The abundance of methane gas has more than doubled since the Industrial Revolution to approximately 1800 ppb (NOAA, 2008). While less abundant than CO2 and water vapor, methane is 25 times more potent as a GHG than CO2 (NOAA, 2008; Wuebbles & Hayhoe, 2002). Permafrost is a large store of CO2 and methane, which, when warmed, has the potential to release a tremendous amount of these GHGs into the atmosphere adding to the greenhouse effect and thus causing an additional rise in temperatures (Kvenvolden & Lorenson, 1993; NOAA, 2008; Wuebbles & Hayhoe, 2002). Snow cover thickness and duration, vegetation, as well as the organic layer and soil characteristics are likely to be influenced by warming temperatures due to GCC. As temperatures warm, snow cover duration will decrease, impacting the hydrologic cycle due to decreased water retention for spring runoff (Kneisel, 2010; Leemans & Eickhaut, 2004; DOI et al., 2007). Warming temperatures will likely cause the shrinking of species populations and habitats for species such as the lynx and pika, which depend on the snow cover duration and thickness for their survival (DOI et al., 2007). The tundra biome would decrease in size as mountain biomes shift up in elevation due warmer temperatures at lower elevations (Leemans & Eickhaut, 2004). Thawing of permafrost and the active layer will lead to a change in soil moisture content, decreased soil cohesion, increased soil erosion, and a change in soil microbial activity (Zhao-ping et al., 2010). Soil slumping from a lack of cohesion of soil due to decreased ice would disturb plant life on the tundra (Zhao-ping, 2010). Increasing temperatures and changing soil chemistry would also corrupt plant life (Leemans & Eickhaut, 2004; Zhao-ping, 2010). This study shows how ground temperatures of the tundra in a section of RMNP have changed overall from year to year and seasonally during a period of two years from the summer of 2008 to the summer of 2010 to help further the understanding of the changing conditions at the park for park officials and decision makers. This study can help direct future research and guide park authorities in mitigation and management strategies. Literature Review The impending consequences of climate change on alpine soils are evaluated by dozens of scientists around the world. Many approaches to the subject have created a vast array of information varying from the impact of snow cover on thermal heat exchange to the effects of elevation and aspect on seasonal temperature variance. Permafrost and frozen soils are of significance to the subject of climate change as they serve as carbon sinks and are essential to fragile alpine vegetation (Borken, & Matzner, 2007). In one of the most relevant articles found during research on this topic, researchers at the University of Bonn, Department of Geography in Germany, analyzed soil temperatures from the surface to a depth of 15 cm, including variations caused by microspatial differences, and the effects of altitudinal forces (Loffler, Pape, & Wundram, 2010). The results are presented in a series of isocline diagrams depicting temperature gradients between each site comparing low and middle alpine areas in Norway “This enabled us to quantify the significance of soil temperature gradients across vertical soil profiles, topography, and altitude in order to facilitate future microclimate extrapolation and modeling in high mountain landscapes” (Loffler, Pape, & Wundram, 2010). This research is valuable to this study as the methods are similar measureing temperatures at comparable depths and conditions. The instruments used to collect the data are alike, although the German researchers have access to a greater range of data collection such as barometric pressure, solar radiation, humidity and wind direction. According to the results three specific factors are responsible for temperature variation: the thickness and duration of snow cover, topography, and soil composition (including proximity to bedrock). They concluded “that mean temperature values are unsuitable for representing the altitudinal changes of high mountain climate” (Loffler, Pape, & Wundram, 2010). It was found that with so many factors contributing to temperature variance it is difficult to correlate it with climate change. In a similar study the effects of climate change of permafrost are evaluated. The loss of permafrost around the world’s tundra regions is often referred to as an indicator of climate change, due to the fact that it is maintained by climates that have prevailed over hundreds, to thousands of years (Pewe, 1975) The park contains several permafrost zones where the ground is more likely in certain areas to maintain constant freezing and areas that fluctuate more greatly during seasonal temperature changes (Janke, 2005). Referred to as the continuous and discontinuous, enduring permafrost is independent of ecosystem structure and less susceptible to changing conditions, while soils frozen for merely several years at a time are believed to fluctuate with weather changes (Shur & Jorgenson, 2007). Research conducted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks produced five levels of permafrost degradation have been classified based upon the interaction of climatic and ecological processes: climate driven, climate-driven ecosystem modified, climate-driven ecosystem protected, ecosystem-driven, and ecosystem-protected (Shur & Jorgenson, 2007). For example ecosystem protected permafrost will be maintained if factors such as vegetation and hydrology if they remain at a constant. The majority of frozen ground in the United States is found mostly in Alaska, but has been located in the higher altitudes of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado above 3,000 m (Janke, 2009). This study is a continuance of the work compiled by Dr. Jason Janke, in RMNP evaluating the fluctuations of soil temperature along Trail Ridge Road. The relevance of two ongoing studies at the Long Term Ecological Research Site (LTER) Niwot Ridge and the Critical Zone Observatory Site (CZO) Green Lakes in Colorado is discussed by German ecologists as possible predictors of climate change. The study sites provide a compellation of past and present data that are used to create future predictions. “At some locations, we find large differences when compared to the older data and the prognostic model. Sites formerly indicated as permafrost in the 1970’s shifted towards sites with annual ice lenses today” (Leopold, Voelkel, Dethier, Williams, & Caine. 2010). Three methods are used to collect the data: electric resistivity tomography (ERT), ground penetrating radar (GPR) and shallow seismicrefraction (SSR). As with the RMNP study two boreholes were drilled at 3,500ft to record soil temperature (Leopold, et al. 2010). The study found no evidence of permafrost at the selected sites on Niwot ridge, although it had a calculated 63% probability. Permanently frozen ground was found near Green Lake Valley at 3,600 M, where it was also reported to exist in 1974 (Leopold, et al. 2010). Due to the huge variances found in the results it was concluded that the presence or absence of permafrost cannot be definitively linked to global warming without further study. Extensive research has been conducted in the Swiss Alps in regard to this subject, and may prove to be a more definitive area due the recorded presence of permafrost and the long history of recorded data in the region. Characteristics of frozen ground vary greatly depending upon hydrological conditions, snow cover, solifluction, and surface or below ground textural character (Kniesel, 2010). During a warming period permafrost is likely to disappear first from marginal areas with mean yearly temperatures near 0°C; while terrain with the largest amount of near surface ground ice will be the most disturbed. According to Kniesel the heterogeneous tendencies of high altitude subarctic environments are a challenge and knowledge of the factors determining the presence or absence of permafrost specifically at the fringe of these environments are the key to understanding climate change. Alpine tundra environments in Abisco Sweden were monitored using geomorphologic mapping, near surface temperature monitoring, and 2D near surface geophysics. The temperature measurements collected in this study use different techniques than those taken in RMNP. Using a 3m thermistor probe inserted through winter snowpack of at least 80cm, and into the ground surface, Bottom Temperature Snow (BTS) measurements were recorded, as well as surface temperatures from data loggers. There are three different probabilities used to determine the presence of permafrost using this method: (<-3°C) permafrost probable, (-2°C to -3°C) possible, and (> -2°C) improbable (Kneisel, 2010). The results found areas of probable and possible permafrost in areas of patterned ground, and improbable areas in lower altitudes. The most promising sites, loggers 4and 5, found surface temperatures unfavorable to permafrost conditions, yet the BTS readings were between -2.5°C and -3°C well within the probable zone (Kneisel, 2010). The variance in temperature may be due to the insolative effect of the snow and the cold temperatures being emitted from the ground. Due to the fact that RMNP does not maintain a snowpack deeper than 80 cm this method cannot be used. A fifteen year study of the effects of permafrost degradation on vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau found that ground temperature fluctuation can profoundly affect alpine ecosystems. The complex relationship between high altitude vegetation and permafrost were investigated by measuring the active layer, thickness of frozen ground, and mean annual ground temperature. It was found that as the ground thawed the active layer increased, the organic matter in the soil exponentially decreased, and the surface became less compact and gravely (Wang, G., Li, Wu, & Wang. 2005). The results showed that over the 15 year period “the distribution area of alpine cold meadow decreased by 7.98% and alpine cold swamp decreased by 28% under the permafrost environment degradation” (Wang, G. et al, 2005). It was concluded that in the next fifty years theses alpine ecosystems will undergo serious dilapidation. This research reveals the complex relationship between frozen soils and fragile vegetation, and how climate change will greatly impact the world. Objectives Analyze soil temperature data at the surface and at depth from five study sites throughout Rocky Mountain National Park to determine whether this region is experiencing climate change. Determine whether temperatures are increasing, decreasing, or remaining constant during individual seasons from 2008 – 2010. Find if there is there an overall increase or decrease in soil temperature in the RMNP region from the entire year by extrapolating our data from the five sites. Determine if a difference is observed, is it statistically significant using a two sample t-test assuming unequal variances at a 95 % confidence level. Does the soil type and vegetation cover effect soil temperatures in an alpine region and what are the effects, increased cooling or warming relative to surrounding sites with different characteristics. Which seasons and sites experienced the greatest change and how does this relate to environmental variables of the region, such as aspect, altitude as well as soil type and vegetation cover. Where is the largest vertical temperature gradient located from the five study sites, and what year did it occur. Does this relate to the soil or environmental characteristics of an individual site, or the seasonal variability? Study Area The area of study is located in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), which lies to the west of Estes Park, CO. This study consists of five sensors recording surface and ground temperature data at locations along an approximately 5 mile (8,047m) stretch of Trail Ridge Road within RMNP. Elevations in this area range from approximately 3505m to 3740m. The area has a periglacial surface in a predominantly tundra biome. Each site lies on a different aspect, with elevations within 160m of each other, as seen in Table 1 (Janke, 2009). The tundra area is too harsh to sustain trees, but a low carpet of assorted tundra plants covers the area. Animals such as pika call the tundra their home living in the rock crevices and burrowing in the snow during winter. While seen in many parts of the park, elk can often be seen above timber line grazing on the tundra plants ( DOI et al., 2007). Maps of the study area are below in Figure 1. Table1. Site Description, Elevation, and Aspect Site Descripti on Elevation Aspect 3 7 10 17 25 Earth Hummock Tundra below rock outcrop Solifluction Between stone stripes Mixture in tundra 3684m 3736m 3651m 3702m 3580m SSW SE N W NW Figure1. Study area map indicating location of logger sites and their location within RMNP in Colorado. Site location map created by Heather Burnett and Kristen Sanders using ArcGIS and ESRI data. Colorado state highway map from Colorado Blogging. RMNP map from StateMaster.com. Methods RMNP is the location for ongoing research into the effects of climate change on the high alpine tundra. Thanks to a study entitled Permafrost Characteristics along Trail Ridge Road, Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, data loggers were installed in 2008. The installation method is described in depth in this excerpt from the study by Dr. Jason Janke: Thirty HOBO data loggers with two sensors (internal (A) and an external (B)) were installed during July 2008. With the assistance of students, holes were drilled using a standard soil auger, sensors were inserted, and holes were backfilled. Unfortunately, the rocky soil did not permit the second sensor to be placed at a great depth. Internal surface sensors (A) were installed at 10 cm depth, whereas external sensor (B) depths ranged from 30 to 85 cm. Soil samples were obtained at each site for analysis of soil properties. For each sensor location, elevation, slope, and aspect were measured. Loggers were launched and set to record temperature at 2-hour intervals. High-resolution Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) measurements were taken at each point to aid in relocation. Locations were also marked with a ring of rocks around the data logger. Data was downloaded in July of 2009 and then again in August of 2010. From earlier research sites 3, 7, 10, 17, and 25 were selected for further study. The data retrieved in August of 2010 was added to the July 2009 data and separated into fall, winter, spring, and summer. Fall was classified as September through November, winter as December through February, spring as March through May, and summer as June through July because the August data was incomplete. External sensors are classified as surface and the internal sensor as ground. Ground and Surface were further evaluated using Excel. Seasonal classifications were used to judge differences between the two years. The measurements were taken as follows: Fall September 1-November 30, Winter December 1- February 28, Spring March1-May 31, and Summer June1- July 26. The month of August was not included due to lack of comparable data. Averages, Standard Deviation, and t-tests were conducted for each sensor across the two years for the sites to be evaluated. The two-tail t-test was used to assess the years and determine if a temperate change did occur. From this conclusions were drawn as to possible effects of vegetation, soil composition, aspect, and snow cover. The study sites were chosen, out of a desire to use differing site compositions, where assumptions could be made for the larger area. The t-tests and seasonal averages when compared give a scientific, as well as an elementary view of the data. Results Site 3 Site 3 is the Eastern-most data logger located at an elevation of 3684m on an earth hummock with a South-Southwest aspect (Table1, Figure1) (Janke, 2009). The mean surface temperature increased between year 1 and year 2 (See Table2), indicating a warming trend. The maximum surface temperature of 14.79⁰C was recorded on July 24, 2010, and a maximum ground temperature of 8.46⁰C on December 11, 2009. The minimum surface temperature fell to -11.51C° on December 10, 2009, followed by a minimum ground temperature of -7.38°C on December 11, 2009. The significantly colder surface temperature between the surface and ground minimum measurements is possibly due to a lack of snow cover. Snow cover insulates the surface and reduces extreme variation in temperature (Janke, 2009). The largest variations in seasonal temperatures between year 1 and year 2 occurred during the winter months. The surface logger showed a near 2⁰C decrease in year 2, and the ground logger recorded a 1.5⁰C decrease. The significant difference between the spring surface measurements indicates that some snow may have been present on the surface during year 2 as seen in Figure 2. The ground temperature remained constant during the two years (Janke, 2009). Figure2. Average seasonal temperature variations for Site 3 6 Seasonal Averages Site 3 Surface and Ground Temperature °C 4 2 0 -2 Fall Surface Fall Ground Winter Surface Winter Ground Spring Surface Spring ground Summer Summer Surface Ground year1 year2 -4 -6 -8 Logger Site 3 Seasons Site 7 Site 7 lies toward the South Eastern side of the study area at an elevation of 3736m with a Southeast aspect, located on tundra below a rock outcrop (Table1, Figure1) (Janke,2009). The mean surface temperature between the two years shows a warming trend for both the surface and ground loggers. The surface and ground data revealed similar changes with temperatures rising approximately 2.5⁰C. This shows that there was little variance between the recordings and may be attributed to a strong heat exchange between the surface and ground medium eliminating a thermal gradient. As seen in figure 3 seasonal averages remained relatively constant. Figure3. Average seasonal temperature variations for Site 7 8 Seasonal Averages Site 7 Surface and Ground Temperature °C 6 4 2 Year 1 0 -2 Fall Surface Fall Ground Winter Surface Winter Ground Spring Surface Spring Ground Summer Surface Summer Ground Year 2 -4 -6 -8 Logger Site 7 Seasons Site 10 Site 10 has a northern aspect and is positioned at an elevation of 3651m (Table1, Figure1). This study area is experiencing solifluction, which is the downward movement of saturated sediment and debris in a periglacial environment. The mean annual surface temperature actually decreased from year one to year two as displayed in tables 5. The mean annual ground temperature increased as seen in table 6. Although both the surface and ground experienced changes the rate at which they warmed/cooled was very small with a 0.2 °C change at the surface, and a 0.038 °C change at depth. The slight cooling/warming and little variation in temperature could be explained by the fact that northern facing slopes receive the least amount of sunlight and site 10 had a frost index of 0.6 from 2008 – 2009 (Janke,2005). As depicted in Figure 4, there is minimal seasonal variation between the two years. Figure4. Average seasonal temperature variations for Site 10 Surface and Ground Temperature °C 8 Seasonal Averages Site 10 6 4 2 Year 1 0 -2 Fall Surface Fall Ground Winter Surface Winter Ground Spring Surface -4 -6 -8 Logger Site 10 Seasons Spring Ground Summer Surface Summer Ground Year 2 Site 17 Site 17 is located at a 3702m elevation between stone stripes with a Western aspect (Table1, Figure1) (Janke, 2009). The surface yearly mean increased from -1.74°C to 2.36°C, indicating an overall warming trend at the surface (See Table 8). The ground yearly mean temperature slightly decreased overall from year 1 to year 2 (See Table9). The minimum surface temperature was -16.28°C on December 10, 2009. The maximum surface temperature in the two years was 14.94°C on July 24, 2010. The minimum ground temperature in the two years was -11.005°C on December 11, 2009. The maximum ground temperature in the two years was 5.95°C on July 26, 2010. There appears to be a correlation between the surface and ground maximum and minimum temperatures. The surface maximum temperature occurred on July 24, 2010, with the ground maximum temperature occurring two days later on July 26, 2010. A similar correlation was observed between the minimum ground temperatures, where the surface minimum occurred on December 10, 2009, followed by the ground minimum temperature the following day. This could be attributed to the insulative properties of the soil that cause a lag time between the surface and ground as the soil catches up to the surface during heat exchange. As seen in Figure 5, seasonal variations were minimal between the two years. Surface and Ground Temperature °C Figure5. Average seasonal temperature variations for Site 17 8 Seasonal Averages Site 17 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Fall Surface Fall Ground Winter Surface Winter Ground Spring Surface Spring Ground Summer Summer Surface Ground Year 1 Year 2 -6 -8 -10 -12 Logger Site 10 Seasons Site 25 Site 25 has a Northwest aspect and is located at an elevation of 3580m. This study site has a rocky mixture in tundra (Janke, 2005). The mean annual surface temperature increased by 0.6404 °C indicating warming. The mean annual ground temperature decreased by 0.53442 °C indicating there was cooling from year one to year two (table 10). The maximum surface temperature was recorded on 8/1/2008 at 22.68 °C and the minimum surface temperature at -17.99 °C occurring on 12/10/2009. The maximum ground temperature occurred on 8/2/2008 and was recorded at 8.965 °C. The minimum ground temperature was observed at -10.092°C and was recorded on 2/16/2010. During the winter season and into spring, site #25 displayed temperatures below zero, with little variation between years one and year two. During the summer season the surface temperatures between the two years display no difference and temperatures continue to remain above zero through the summer, and into the fall season with very little variations seen in figure 6. Mean Temperature °C Figure6. Average seasonal temperature variations for Site 25 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 Site 25 Seasonal Averages Fall Surface Fall Ground Winter Surface Winter Ground Spring Surface Spring Ground Summer Summer Surface Ground year1 year2 Seasonal Surface and Ground Site 25 The site that experienced the most significant warming during the two year period was site 17. The surface data revealed an average increase of 4.1⁰C between the two years. Sites 3 and 7 showed a small rise in temperature. According to the t-Critical- two tail tests, sites 3,7,17, and 25 showed warming with a t-stat above 1.96. Site 10 did not display a statistically significant change. The average surface soil temperature for year 1 for all sites evaluated is 0.246⁰. The average surface reading for year 2 was 1.126⁰C, which indicates that warming did occur during the two year period. The mean ground temperature for all sites in year 1 was -0.924⁰C, and for year 2 was -0.775⁰C indicating that on average the ground remained frozen throughout the two years. The yearly average surface and ground temperatures comparisons can be seen in Figures 7 and 8. It can be seen that ground temperatures remained consistently cooler than surface temperatures. Figure7. Surface mean temperature at logger sites for years 1 and 2 Surface Yearly Mean Temperature °C 3 2 1 Year 1 0 Year 2 Site 3 Site 7 Site 10 Site 17 Site 25 -1 -2 Logger Sites Figure8. Ground mean temperatures at logger sites for years 1 and 2 2 Ground Yearly Mean Temperature °C 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 Site 3 Site 7 Site 10 -1 Site 25 Year 1 Year 2 -1.5 -2 -2.5 -3 Site 17 Logger Sites Discussion Frozen soils are sensitive to climatic changes and the ecosystems that depend on them for survival are fragile. Along with vegetation, soil nutrient retention, carbon sequestration and slope stability are all impacted by the reduction of permafrost (Wang, G.et al. 2005). The results of this study show that soil temperatures did indeed increase over the two year period examined. If this trend continues it may serve as an indicator of climate change in the Front Range vicinity. The consequences of warming in RMNP are dire as it could alter the terrain and ecology of the park. From evidence collected at the study site over a broader period of time the effects of climate change on a global scale can be evaluated. This study found that along with other research of temperature variability; snow cover, soil composition and aspect significantly affect the temperature readings of the loggers, making it difficult to arrive at a definitive conclusion. Conclusion Individual seasonal change was analyzed as well as yearly and specific site changes. During the winter season a statistically significant (SS) warming was seen at the surface and at depth for all five sample study sites. Although SS changes were observed in some cases whether at the surface or at depth there is no distinct trend of warming or cooling during the summer season. The spring season had an overall SS warming with the exception of the observed cooling seen at sites 10 and 3. There is no distinct trend of warming or cooling during the fall season from 2008-2010 although SS changes were seen in some cases. Previous studies coincided with our research findings that RMNP is likely experiencing warming, especially during the winter and spring months. Looking at the 5 sample study sites individually we were able to determine which sites were experiencing the greatest change, and how the annual mean temperatures changed at each site from year one to year two. Sites 17 and 25 experienced the greatest change with regard to observed heating/cooling in relation to a no observed difference analyzed in each season from the surface and at depth observations. Site 10 experienced an annual mean temperature change that trended towards cooling at the surface and warming at depth. Site 25 displayed a warming trend at the surface and a cooling trend at depth from year one to year two. Site 7 showed warming in both the surface and ground mean annual temperature changes. Warming was observed at the surface and at depth for site 17 as well which also experienced the largest change of all the five study sites. Site 3 was found to be cooling at depth and warming at the surface. When examining all of temperature data using the t-test from each site it was found that overall each one of our sample sites were warming with the exception of site 10 which experienced no significant change. Our findings lead us to believe that the RMNP region is warming. The strongest influences on soil temperature include slope, aspect, snow cover and the presence of permafrost. Our findings indicate that none of our 5 sample sites had permafrost. Depending on these factors soil temperatures can be highly to slightly variable in change from year to year. In order to determine the rate and magnitude of change that the RMNP region will experience more research and analysis will need to be done in the future. Other factors such as air temperatures and snow depth may also be included in future studies to provide more insight on how these variables affect the climates and micro-climates of an alpine region. Works Cited Admin in Blogging (2010, September 10). Colorado Map. (World Sites Atlas) Retrieved December 3, 2010, from Colorado Blogging: http://coloradoblogging.com/colorado-map/ Borken, W., & Matzner, E. (2007) Do freez-thaw events enhance C and N losses from soils of different ecosystems? A review. 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Permafrost characteristics along Trail Ridge Road, Rocky Mountain National Park, CO. Jorgenson, M., & Shur, Y. (2007). Patterns of permafrost formation and degredation in realtion to climate and ecosystems. Wiley InterScience, 18, 7-19. doi: 10.1002/ppp582 Kneisel, C. (2009). Frozen ground conditions in a subarctic mountain environment , Northern Sweden. Elsevier, Geomorphology 118, 80-92. www.elsevier.com/locate/geomorph Kvenvolden, K. A., & Lorenson, T. D. (1993). Methane in permafrost-- preliminary results from coring at Fairbanks, Alaska. Chemosphere , 26 (1-4), 609-616. Leemans, R., & Eickhout, B. (2004). Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change. Global Climate Change (14), 219-228. Loffler, J., Pape, R., & Wundram, D. (2010). Alpine soil temperature variability at multiple scales. BioOne, 42 (1), 117-128. doi: 10.1657/1938-5246-42.1.117 Li, Y., Wang, G., Wang, Y., Wu, Q. (2006). 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