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Indicators for policy support of atmosphere related environmental problems Robert Koelemeijer National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ETC - Air and Climate Change Contents Indicators + examples • Stratospheric ozone • Air pollution • Climate change Present status of indicators How do/can satellite observations contribute to indicators 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 2 Indicators: DPSIR Indicators: • used to analyse developments • measure distance-to-target 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 3 Stratospheric ozone Policy objective (Montreal protocol) : phase-out use of ozone depleting substances Consumption of Ozone Depleting Substances (EEA31) 400 350 million ODP kg 300 Methyl bromide HCFCs Halons CFCs, Carbon tetrachloride, Methyl chloroform 250 200 150 100 50 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 4 Stratospheric ozone State indicators: • Concentrations CFCs, HCFCs, Halons: ground-based data • Ozone column density: TOMS, GOME, ... Averaged ozone column over Europe for March 450 Dobson Units 425 400 375 350 325 300 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 year 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 5 Stratospheric ozone • Monitoring ozone layer from space is a success story: – total column density is the relevant quantity – accuracy sufficient (few %) – continuity of observations OK • Future observations needed: – will ozone layer recover? – interaction with climate change? 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 6 Air quality • Ground based networks (EMEP, Airbase) – Components: O3, NO, NO2, VOCs, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, toxics, heavy metals (Pb, Ni, Cd, As, Hg), ... – Sites: street / urban background / rural background – Accuracy depends on component. Typically 5-30% for single measurement. – Some of the drawbacks: • necessarily limited density of stations • different network design per country 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 7 Concentration NO2 (794 Airbase stations) NO2 annual mean street urban rural concentration (ug/m3) 80 60 EU limit value 40 20 0 1995 20-1-2004 1996 1997 1998 1999 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 2000 2001 8 NO2 map Yearly average 2000 Urban background 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 9 GOME observations: tropospheric NO2 Image courtesy KNMI 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 10 ATSR-2: aerosols over land Image courtesy TNO-FEL 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 11 MODIS AOD - PM2.5 correlation Kittaka et al., 84th AMS conference 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 12 Air pollution • Synergy between ground-based and satellite observations could be further explored Ground-based measurements Satellite measurements Model Assimilation Emissions 20-1-2004 Concentrations (analysis & forecast) Depositions Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 13 Air pollution Satellites should • sample boundary layer small pixel size (~10x10 km2) required – look between clouds – resolve source areas • priority species: – PM10 and PM2.5 – Ozone (ground-level and tropospheric column (CC)) 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 14 Climate Change Kyoto-monitoring: • emissions estimated through “activity” approach (emission = activity x emission factor) • reporting guidelines fixed (IPCC) • same method for all years (1990 - 2012) 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 15 GHG inverse modelling • Inverse modelling of satellite observations of CO2 and CH4 might give useful constraints on sources and sinks. But research has only started recently. • Some bottlenecks: – Data availability (Mopitt?, Sciamachy?, NASA/OCO) – Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions are rather well known (< 10%). Inverse modelling will constrain locations and strengths of natural sources and sinks. – Constraining anthropogenic CH4 seems better feasible: shorter lifetime, anthropogenic emissions less well known and of similar magnitude as natural emissions. 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 16 Other forcings and feedbacks • Climate change policy heavily depends on science (IPCC): current effects are only minor compared to future. • Model validation necessary to improve projections – Greenhouse gases – Aerosols (land & ocean) – Clouds • Aerosols and tropospheric O3 (precursors) not in Kyoto protocol, but monitoring these are important both for climate change and air quality. 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 17 State + impact indicators • State and impact indicators for Europe have been developed recently by ETC-ACC. – Temperature, precipitation, extremes – Cryosphere (snow cover, glaciers, Arctic sea ice) – Marine system (sea level, SST, marine growing season, shifts in species distribution) – Ecosystems and biodiversity – Public health (tick borne diseases, heat-waves) • Non-atmospheric satellite measurements used for CC State & Impact indicators: e.g., detection of changes Arctic sea-ice and snow cover. Need for long-term satellite observational records 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 18 Climate change Arctic Sea-ice Extent anomaly since 1973 Source: IPCC, 2001 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 19 Conclusions • Ozone layer: monitoring from space is a success story: sufficient accuracy for long-term ozone trend detection and long-term continuity assured • Air quality: assessments may improve through synergy between ground-based and satellite measurements • Climate change: inverse modelling of ground- and satellite observations may constrain CO2 and CH4 sources & sinks. Research recently started. But unlikely to improve anthropogenic CO2 emission inventories. • Indicators are only part of the story. Scientific progress (model validation, constraining natural fluxes, etc) is crucial to improve projections. 20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 20