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Download Short-Lived Climate Pollutants
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Short-Lived Climate Pollutants - scientific background Peringe Grennfelt IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Background § Air pollution and Climate are strongly connected – Co benefits in control were identified several years ago and considered in the EU thematic strategy for air pollution in 2005 – Energy efficiency, fuel switch - Coal (oil) to natural gas etc. – Some trade-offs also – Replacing fossil fuels with bioenergy may increase PM emissions – Climate change may influence air pollution dispersion and effects – Atmospheric pollutants may influence the global radiation balance [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] Atmospheric pollutants of concern § Particles – Black carbon and other sunlight absorbing compounds – Sulphates and other sunlight reflecting compounds § Gases – Methane – Tropospheric ozone – HFCs (not an atmospheric pollutant) Sunlight CH4 CO VOC O3 NOx [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] A word about lifetimes § Black carbon typically less than 1 week § Ozone: typically 15-30 days § Methane: 12 years (some recent studies 8-10 years) § The short lifetime means that the climate effect primarily will occur over a shorter time period than for carbon dioxide. [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] Air pollution policies § Strong focus on reducing health effects from – Particles, in particular black carbon. The recently (May 2012) revised Gothenburg Protocol under CLRTAP is for the first time including control of primary particles and it put particular emphasis to black carbon. – Particles will probably be further considered in the revision of the EU thematic strategy (will probably highlight both the climate and health effect) – Ozone (health and vegetation damages). For vegetation a recent study indicates a crop loss of 15-20% for wheat for EU27 to a value of 3.2 bn € (2000). [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] Ozone Ozone is of concern for food security NAT2020 NAT2000 Ozone impact on wheat production Wheat 2000 2020 Total production 133 MT Production loss 27 MT 16 MT economic value loss 3.2 b€ 2.0 b€ The magnitude of the impact is reduced The areas (intensely) impacted are reduced The impact occurs on 85% of EMEP grid cells [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] So to the role of SLCPs in the climate system § First and most important: § Control of SLCPs should not be seen as an alternative to control the long-lived climate gases but § It offers a possibility of achieving an additional control of the global warming over the next decades. [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] UNEP-BC/O3 Report &Science Paper Shindell et al, 2012 The idea behind SLCP policies 0.50C Reduction by 2050 BC+Methane+Ozone § A fast reduction in emissions of black carbon and methane may give substantial climate benefits over the next 20-40 years [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] The residence time is important for the climate effect § CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases are evenly distributed and the radiation effect (radiative forcing) is thus global § For methane it is also in reality global even if there are some differences in concentrations between the N and the S hemisphere § For ozone, there are some regionality. Most of the global increase in tropospheric ozone occurs in the N hemisphere. § For black carbon the area of radiative forcing is strongly dependent on atmospheric circulation patterns [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] The region where the emissions occur matters Region of radiative forcing Source region Region of radiative response [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] Ozone has also an indirect effect through reducing carbon sequestration § Reduced photosynthesis and annual uptake in the green biomass § Decreased long term sequestration in wood and soils. The indirect effect is of the same order as the direct effect. This effect is not considered in connection with SLCP policies [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] § We have an overall understanding of the importance of the SLCPs but we still need more research and refined models to make quantitative estimates of the regional effects. § International collaboration on science is going on in several organisations, e.g. – IPCC – CLRTAP – EU-projects [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] SLCPs within the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) § Was brought up at a conferences in Gothenburg in 2007 and 2009. § The Convention initiated a one year study during 2010 § From 2011 and onwards the scientific background for further work on SLCPs will be organised under The Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TFHTAP), § The TFHTAP (initiated in 2004) has the objective to form science-based inputs to the Convention on intercontinental transport of air pollution [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] TF HTAP’s Mandate § In 2010, the Executive Body of the Convention renewed the mandate for TF HTAP to: – Examine the transport of air pollution, including ozone and its precursors and particulate matter and its components (including black carbon), across the Northern Hemisphere – Assess potential emission mitigation options available inside and outside the UNECE region – Assess their impacts on regional and global air quality, public health, ecosystems, and near-term climate change in collaboration with other groups both inside and outside the Convention. [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] Conclusions § Several interlinks between climate and air pollution § Black carbon, methane and ozone contribute significantly to global warming as well as to large effects on human health and the environment. § Sulphur dioxide on the contrary has a cooling effect but still reductions are necessary due to health and environmental effects § Significant measures are taken in some parts of the world to reduce the effects of these pollutants. § Necessary to consider both the climate and health/ environment aspects in the future [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] Thank you [Title] [Lecturer], [Date]