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Infiltrating the Frozen Fortress: the importance of the cryosphere to mountains and their populations in the wake of global climate change A Literature Review by Katherine E. Williams GEOG4000 Dr. J. Michael Daniels University of Denver, Department of Geography November 11, 2009 Abstract Mountain geography is an important field to the safeguarding of natural resources, plant and animal communities, and environmental regulators. The mountains are natural centers as well as political, historical, and cultural icons to populations around the world. Mountain ecosystems have reached global priority status due to recognized vulnerability to present and impending climate change. The cryosphere is the frozen part of the earth and includes areas located on and around mountain peaks. These frozen places are essential reservoirs of freshwater and provide stabilization for mountain slopes. Cryogenic systems are acutely susceptible to predicted climate change. The demise of cryogenic features has far-reaching implications for mountain systems and their downstream dependents. Hydrologic processes link the cryosphere to many economic, political, and societal traditions. Water is indispensible to global populations and must be monitored and preserved. Geographic Information Science (GISci) is a discipline that rose to prominence concurrent with climate change concerns. The field was suitably equipped to respond to the international calls for an influx of critical data to guide officials in implementing effective mitigation plans. The integration of GISci techniques into mountain research enhanced display and storage functions, but also provided a platform to model environmental data in a spatial context alongside socio-economic attributes. Detailed and accurate studies of mountain systems are vital to the well-being of unique cultures, 1|Page economic stability, indigenous species, and resource management. The geographic study of mountains has progressed significantly, but still requires advance in comprehensive knowledge and public involvement to evoke substantial change. Section I. Introduction In the early days of Geography, Alexander von Humboldt had a vision to explore the natural world holistically. To him this meant studying the interrelatedness of the pieces as well as the attributes of the individual parts. When Humboldt journeyed to the New World to explore the land and gather scientific data, he discovered a wealth of information. His travels introduced him to novel ecosystems, species, and cultures. Yet his tactic was not merely to record separate components. Rather he sought to synthesize the parts into a whole, to provide meaning rather than mere representation. He approached the earth as an intricate organism and viewed the interactions of the individual elements as complex and inseparable, though often independent. The careful cataloguing of his journey became a rich repository of information for fellow and future scientists. Humboldt’s dream was to “depict in a single work the entire material universe” and to show the immense diversity and complexity of natural systems (Livingstone 1992). This model of scientific inquiry is lofty, but worth pursuing. The issues facing scientists today are different than the subjects which occupied scientists in past centuries. The advent of digital technology, spacecraft, rapid population increase, and an ever tightening web of economic dependency provide a different context for research initiatives. In light of this, the importance of holistic research endeavors remains fundamentally important. Geography has a long tradition of mingling the physical world, human issues, and spatial references in research efforts (Livingstone 1992). Studying the mountains from a 2|Page multidisciplinary perspective is essential in order to achieve a full-picture understanding of how to protect and preserve these valuable ecosystems (Heywood, Price, and Petch 1994). Mountains are valued for their natural beauty, but they are not spectators in physical cycles. They are intimately involved in maintaining the ecological health of the earth. This paper will explore a few of the key mountain features that fortify natural processes. The research for this paper began with the intention of exploring mountain geography. As research progressed it soon became clear that mountains were in the global spotlight for one primary reason. This reason is their susceptibility to climate change. The vast majority of published mountain research is integrated with a climate change perspective. Thus this paper evolved to incorporate climate change as it relates to mountain ecosystems. Further study illuminated the cryosphere as a region of great importance to mountains and an area of high vulnerability to climate change. As a result, this review will examine features of the cryosphere and why this region is important to mountains and other systems. Much of the current research also utilizes geographic information technologies to augment ground data points. Implementation of these techniques has greatly improved the clarity and predictive power of mountain-climatic research. Adhering to the above progression, this literature review will explore mountain geography in the context of global climate change looking specifically at the significance of the cryosphere for mountain health and at the role of Geographic Information Science in aiding research efforts in mountain geography. Section II. Mountain Ecosystems: Harbingers of global health and diversity Like geography itself, mountain geography intersects many other disciplines, synthesizing them around the philosophy of human relations and spatial distributions 3|Page (Heywood, Price, and Petch 1994). Mountains are physical forms, yet they embody an intricate combination of meaning and utility. Mountains are cultural and spiritual icons, locations of tourism and recreation, and symbols of strength and solidarity (Debarbiuex 1999; Friend 2003; Funnell and Price 2003). A complete study of mountains encompasses physical and human geography. As a sub-field of Biogeography, Mountain Geography is positioned to study the complex human-mountain relationships which have gained priority status in the twenty-first century. Due to changing global policies, geographical studies of mountain ecosystems are in great demand. Mountain systems are complex and highly diversified. They are centers of biodiversity, storehouses of natural resources, and treasuries of history, culture, and agriculture (Friend 2003). Research is needed to assess species distribution, disturbance patterns, communities, and landscapes within the context of their spatial location (Young et al. 2003). Defining a mountain is preliminary to this discussion. Though most people could point out a mountain, the question must be asked, “In a purely empirical sense, what is a mountain?” Is it defined by location, height, relief, latitude, or human opinion (Friend 2003)? According to mountain research authors, a rigorous definition of a mountain is lacking. However, the concept of a mountain is as universal as it is locally defined (Ives, Messerli, and Spiess 1997; Debarbiuex 1999). The idea of a mountain is a function of culture and epistemology in addition to physical attributes such as relief and elevation. Recognizing this perspective is important in the global effort to preserve mountain ecosystems as significant climate change develops (Debarbiuex 1999). The emphasis is placed on the relationship between mountains and people, yielding a sense of personal involvement. Personalization of mountain research makes Geography a fitting platform from which to address issues of change and mitigation (Heywood, 4|Page Price, and Petch 1994). Close ties with the mountains can be seen when considering natural resources. Mountains supply an estimated fifty percent of the freshwater used by humans worldwide. Of this, ten percent of the population are considered mountain residents while the other forty percent are in regions downstream from mountain run-off (Jansky 2002). Water supplies also provide irrigation and energy and feed major river systems. Other mountain resources include timber, stone materials, minerals, and wild game. Mountains are used for livestock grazing and agriculture (Friend 2003). They are also inhabited by an immense variety of species, many with specialized niches (Williams, Jackson, and Kutzbach 2007). Often mountain environments have acted as species islands that retain unique genetic qualities isolated from other species members (Lomolino and Davis 1997; Veblen 2000). This is particularly true in the tropics and sub-tropics which are regions of dense species richness (Svenning et al. 2008). Mountains are also home to people. Some regions are inhabited with indigenous populations that have unique cultures and agricultural specialties (Zimmerer 1991). Other regions are occupied by a populace seeking respite and an aesthetic environment to live in (Riebsame, Gosnell, and Theobald 1996). Whatever the reason for human inhabitance, people in the mountains necessitate a higher level of management policy. Human dwellings encumber fire regimes, wildlife habitats, and vegetative growth (Riebsame, Gosnell, and Theobald 1996; Ives, Messerli, and Spiess 1997; Veblen 2000). These issues may be surmountable, but require careful research and monitoring. Though mountains are symbols of strength, they are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic change. Mass movements such as avalanches, landslides, and floods produce severe impact on 5|Page habitats within the path of movement. Areas downstream of mass movement events can also experience significant damage or degradation (Funnell and Price 2003). The abrupt relief characteristic of mountain systems creates a gradient of extremes from top to bottom of the landform. Temperature, precipitation, and wind speed combine to make the peaks of mountains harsh environments habitable by a limited number of species. In alpine systems this is demonstrated by the expanses of low-growing tundra, gnarled krummholz stands, and low species variety and density. In contrast, the valley regions of mountains are characterized by verdant vegetation and active, diverse animal communities (Ives, Messerli, and Spiess 1997). Change in these systems has been observed for many years (Vale 1987; Price 1999). The change has been broadly assigned to global warming, anthropogenic degradation, and natural cycles. However, the need for detailed datasets, intricate models, and sound policy decisions is vital to maintaining the health of the mountains (Jansky 2002). Recognizing this importance was a big step forward in global collaboration and interdisciplinary research. Section III. Global Climate Change: Where are we headed and what will do when we get there? The delicate ecological balance of mountain ecosystems was globally recognized during the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (Funnell and Price 2003). At this meeting, leaders from nations around the world met to determine a plan of action for dealing with global climate change. The Rio Earth Summit produced Agenda 21, a document that was the culmination of over a decade of research. Agenda 21 provided a framework for global sustainability and addressed social, economic, and environmental issues. The Rio Earth Summit was a milestone event giving momentum to global partnerships, environmental awareness, and humanitarian aid (Keating 1994). However, great intentions do not necessarily lead to 6|Page immediate results. Agenda 21 was primarily a research initiative. The sense was that the earth and its inhabitants were in dire need of change, but conclusive data to remedy this premonition was lacking. The result of the Rio Summit has been a massive research effort to fill in data gaps, giving credence to intuition (Keating 1994; Funnell and Price 2003). This landmark document included “Sustainable Mountain Development” as Chapter 13 of Agenda 21. In this chapter, mountains were recognized as a crucial link to environmental stability and health (Keating 1994). As a result, research studies were launched to obtain detailed, extensive information and datasets and to develop policy and management plans (Messerli 1999; Price 1999; Jansky 2002). This effort has continued and expanded over the last seventeen years and has produced an impressive set of data. Technological advancements have enhanced efforts to monitor and forecast climate change and subsequent environmental change. Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are sophisticated, computer driven models that can handle large, detailed datasets. They are validated by their ability to predict past climate change. These models are not perfect and no single model is able to achieve absolute coherence (Anisimov et al. 2007; Le Treut et al. 2007; Williams, Jackson, and Kutzbach 2007). This means that the forecasted events are still guesses no matter how much supporting data is included in the model. However, certain trends appear to be “virtually certain” in the models while others can be named “extremely likely” or “exceptionally unlikely” according to the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Le Treut et al. 2007). The IPCC is an organization devoted to studying climate change. The Panel is composed of working groups and task forces that are assigned to climate change topics. These groups contribute to IPCC 7|Page Assessment Reports that are a wealth of information for scientists, policymakers, government leaders, and the general public. The IPCC released their Fourth Assessment in 2007 for which the organization received the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. The Fifth Assessment is currently in revision (Solomon and Manning 2008). Climate change is a global priority and though uncertainty is involved, some changes are evident. These include an increase in earth surface temperature, drying patterns, and change in global circulation. Other predicted changes are alteration in the annual amount, seasonal pattern, and type of precipitation, lower lows and higher highs for air temperature, and increased intensity of extreme events such as extratropical storms. Some of these changes are region dependent; others are more generalized across the globe such as air temperature and changes in circulation (Price and Barry 1997; Trenberth et al. 2007). With global temperatures on the rise, the vulnerability of one particular ecosystem stands out. This system is the cryosphere, the essence of which requires the cold temperatures that are becoming more obscure. Section IV. The Cryosphere: Ice-ice baby The cryosphere is the frozen part of the earth and includes ice, snow, and frozen ground. The cryogenic systems of mountains are unique in that they are predominately lifeless features. A few specialized organisms live in the ice such as bryophytes and cold-adapted algae, but generally the species diversity is very low (Mordaunt 1999). However these masses of ice and snow are vital to regulating life-processes in and around the mountains. Without the frozen mountain tips, mountains ecosystems would be dramatically different (Hinkel, Ellis, and Mosley-Thompson 2003). Due to the importance of geocryology to mountain systems and 8|Page climatic change, these next sections will first define cryogenic features, then address the role of the cryosphere in the hydrology of mountains, and finally examine the susceptibility of the cryosphere to climate changes. The cryosphere is predominately located in the polar regions of the globe, but is also situated on high mountain peaks throughout the rest of the earth (Washburn 1979). Several snow caps are located in tropical and sub-tropical regions due to the sheer altitude of mountains and are very important to the water cycles in the those regions (Hinkel, Ellis, and Mosley-Thompson 2003). The major players in the cryosphere are glaciers and the surrounding periglacial region. Glaciers are permanent ice and snowfields that are capable of dynamic movements which sculpt land features. Glaciers are freshwater reservoirs. They contribute to the mass balance of the frozen system and serve as frozen archives for researchers. Gaseous and particulate matter embedded in the ice can be used to reconstruct past climate conditions and fill in gaps of other climatic data. These records show that the earth can experience rapid climate change events as well as gradual processes that lead to change. Glaciers are located on every continent, are responsible for many landforms, and regulate the moderate temperatures of mid-latitude regions (Washburn 1979; Hinkel, Ellis, and Mosley-Thompson 2003). Periglacial regions are typically adjacent to glaciers, though some authors include in this term all non-glacial features characterized by severe freeze-thaw cycles regardless of the region’s proximity to a glacier. These regions are often difficult to quantify due to variable depth and extent (Washburn 1979; Williams and Smith 1989). Periglacial zones are dominated by permafrost. The permafrost layer is a function of surface temperature, sun exposure, 9|Page latitude, seasonality, and local geologic structure. Simply defined, it is a region of perennially frozen ground. The near-surface part of the permafrost layer experiences freeze thaw cycles, while greater depths remain frozen year-round (Williams and Smith 1989; Yershov 1998). More recent studies have characterized a transition layer which is located between the active layer and the perennially frozen layer. The transition layer acts as a buffer between the other two layers and can experience multiple years of constant freeze as well as seasons of complete thaw. This layer tends to be rich in ice thus increasing the latent heat needed to penetrate into the perennially frozen layer and cause thaw (Shur, Hinkel, and Nelson 2005). Permafrost also regulates lentic, or still-water, pools. The recent disappearance of many of these pools in Siberia is thought to be directly connected to changes in the thickness of the active permafrost layer (Anisimov et al. 2007). The periglacial zone is determined by mean temperature, latitude, altitude, and local climate (Washburn 1979). The intense freeze-thaw cycles of periglacial zones result in distinct processes that modify the earth’s surface. Cracking and heaving of the ground is accomplished when embedded ice acts as a wedge in the ground that splits and shifts during freeze expansion and thaw contraction (Washburn 1979; Williams and Smith 1989). The pattern and severity of upheaval are determined by the thermal flow of the ground and the material composition and distribution. Often ice wedging produces patterned ground by heaving ground material to the surface (Yershov 1998). The periglacial zone also experiences mass wasting events such as avalanches and slushflow. These events lead to landforms like rock glaciers and talus areas. Mass-wasting events produce smooth slopes and lead to nivation, or local erosion. These and many other periglacial processes determine the form of the cryosphere as well as the 10 | P a g e distribution of plant and animal communities. Frozen ground is more stable than thawed or thawing ground (Washburn 1979). The cryosphere is undoubtedly vulnerable to climate change (Fitzharris 1996; Washburn 1979; Hinkel, Ellis, and Mosley-Thompson 2003; Anisimov et al. 2007). Each cryogenic feature has a different lifetime on the earth as shown in Figure 1 and will respond to climatic changes differently (Lemke et al. 2007). Polar, sea, and continental glacial extent and seasonal snow Figure 1. Cryogenic features and the relative life-time of each feature at current climate conditions (Lemke et al. 2007). cover are heavily regulated by the environment. Climate, topography, and surface composition control where and to what extent glaciers and periglacial zones will form. Climatic controls include temperature, type and amount of precipitation, wind, and seasonality. Time and anthropogenic contributions produce additional determining factors for frozen systems (Washburn 1979). Degradation of cryogenic features will greatly affect slope stability and water resources. Glacial melt and movements pose hazards to humans and to the global environment. A rigorous method to monitor glacial and periglacial change is imperative. The 11 | P a g e advent of geographic information science (GISci) has greatly contributed to observations of mountains and the cryosphere on a global scale (Raup et al. 2007a). Section V. Geographic Information Systems: Cataloguing global change Before exploring the integration of mountain geography and GISci, a brief definition and overview of the geographic information field is in order. GISci will be used in this paper to denote the science underlying the techniques and applications of Geographic Information Systems (GISys). GISys experienced rapid growth in the early stages of development due to its immense capacity for data synthesis. GISys techniques found a ready audience in disciplines across the academic, industrial, and governmental spectrum (Goodchild 1992; Goodchild 2004). But the emergence of this sophisticated technique was not without growing pains. The ideas for GISys applications are limitless, but the supporting technology necessarily constrains the output. Many technical issues such as interoperability and processing have experienced radical improvement over the past few decades. The power of GISys has been amplified by standardizing data formats, developing spatial algorithms for parallel processing, and improving GPS technology to more accurately assess ground truth points. Representational issues have been reconciled by reducing incompatibility between raster and vector formats, developing the object model, adding a temporal element, and improving methods to visually display spatial data (Brown et al. 2003). The platform of GISys almost seems like a direct answer to the call for information issued at the Rio Earth Summit. It is an ideal system for storing, modeling, and monitoring the earth. This is because GISys was designed with geospatial reference components, can incorporate large datasets, and can link spatial data to attribute data on nearly any subject 12 | P a g e desirable. Through a GISys, physical space and features, populations and distributions, and temporal change can be synthesized (Heywood, Price, and Petch 1994; Brown et al. 2003; Goodchild 2004). This system has the power to model, compute, compare, and track data through time, all while maintaining a spatially referenced dataset. The versatility of GISys makes it indispensible to the international effort to study, understand, and hopefully alleviate anthropogenic strain on the planet (Heywood, Price, and Petch 1994). Advances in GISci have also aided the understanding of how information systems work and how people think about them. Improvements in the link between scientific information and dissemination to the public are crucial for the environmental awareness effort (Heywood, Price, and Petch 1994). Part of the challenge facing management teams and policymakers is presenting information to the public in a way that they grasp the reality and severity of the situation. Mountain systems are linked socio-economic stability and environmental preservation. This must be communicated meaningfully to the public. GIS continues to gain attention in public arenas and in education (Brown et al. 2003). The amount of information available in GISys format continually increases and has made navigation much easier through web-based applications and information access (Sui 2004; Klinkenberg 2007). For a world in the information age, GISys is an ideal way to accumulate and communicate globally relevant issues (Sui 2004). However, it is important to retain ethical integrity and data quality. GISys are powerful, but they can also be manipulated to display erroneous prognoses and relationships if used improperly (Heywood, Price, and Petch 1994; Klinkenberg 2007). Technological power comes with a price. As David Sui aptly comments, “as the islands of our knowledge expands, the shores of our ignorance also stretches.” New advances produce more questions even as 13 | P a g e they answer others (Sui 2004). The potential of GISci is alluring, but its application must be handled with care (Klinkenberg 2007). Many scientists understand this well and are responsible for meticulous storehouses of information that contribute to the overall goal of environmental protection. In the past thirty years, major efforts were undertaken to catalog mountain features and processes. This includes studies of glacial and periglacial extent, thickness, and seasonal change. Advances in technology have enhanced the clarity of glacier and ice sheet measurements. For instance, the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) is an international consortium that provides high resolution satellite images. The GLIMS dataset has been complied into a publically accessible and interactive web-based database. The dataset can be used to show the change in glacial mass over time as well as the increase in global glacial data (Raup et al. 2007b). The GLIMS dataset is an important storehouse of cryogenic information, but research efforts are moving beyond cataloging data. More rigorous modeling efforts are needed to forecast future events. GISys models will be discussed in Section VII. Section VI. Tied Together: The hydrology uniting mountains, cryosphere, and climate change. With atmospheric temperature increase practically certain, changes are inevitable to hydrologic processes, particularly those with frozen components (Barnett, Adam, and Lettenmaier 2005). The hydrologic cycle is a complex system that varies by climate, region, and surface characteristics. This paper will not attempt to define or explore all hydrologic cycles. Instead, it will focus on snow-melt dominated systems because these describe most mountain hydrologies and are vulnerable to cryogenic degradation. This section will examine the 14 | P a g e observed impact of climate change to these systems and the resulting effects on downstream locations. Hydrologic systems with a prevailing snow-melt component are typically characterized by a peak in run-off during the spring season when over-winter snow and ice melt. Snowdominated hydrologies are most often located above forty-five degrees latitude. However, some regions of high elevation below forty-five degrees latitude exhibit snow dependent hydrologies. Other areas above forty-five degrees latitude do not experience a snow-melt driven hydrologic system due to proximity of warm coastal waters or temperatures that are too cold to allow snowfall and melt. Snow-dominated systems are estimated to directly affect onesixth of the world’s population (Barnett, Adam, and Lettenmaier 2005). Seasonal snow is important to these systems because it replenishes the water supply and acts as a climate control by regulating atmospheric radiation through albedo (Liston 1999). Snow cover and subsequent melt control plant distribution and growth, determine the treeline, and affect permafrost dynamics (Liston 1999; Shur, Hinkel, and Nelson 2005). Furthermore, local and regional hydrology is of concern to human populations and industries. Mountain water supplies are essential for fresh drinking water, food security, and power supply (Kreutzmann 1999). A decrease in high mountain water stores has far-reaching consequences. Observed and predicted climatic change trends overwhelmingly support evidence of patterns that will impact the global water budget and regional hydrologic cycles (Liston 1999; Frei et al. 2002; Liu et al. 2003; Barnett, Adam, and Lettenmaier 2005; Bates et al. 2008). The driving factors behind alteration of snow-dominated hydrologies are 1) change in precipitation regimes and 2) an increase in surface temperature (Liu et al. 2003; Barnett, Adam, and 15 | P a g e Lettenmaier 2005; Bates et al. 2008). These two factors are expected to affect seasonal runoff patterns, snowfall, and permafrost activity. The timing and duration of peak run-off events are likely to shift according to most GCMs (Frei et al. 2002; Anisimov et al. 2007). A change in intensity, duration, or incidence of runoff events will affect downstream habitats and inhabitants. Altering these processes may lead to deglaciation and permafrost degradation, water shortages, increased hazards such as flood, drought, and slope failure, strain on food security, and decrease in economic stability (Anisimov et al. 2007). Mountain change also poses a threat to plant and animal species and the ecosystems they live in. Adaptation will be necessary and less-specialized organisms are favored for survival (Williams, Jackson, and Kutzbach 2007). In addition, stress on agricultural space, livestock grazing, timber harvesting, mineral extraction, and other resources will pose local and regional economic strain and social difficulty. Humans, like other plant and animal species, will be pushed to adapt (Anisimov et al. 2007). Lifestyle adjustments increase the risk of losing valuable cultural traditions and structures, local socio-economic patterns, unique species and sub-species, and ties to the land (Zimmerer 1991). The implications of changing the water cycle are serious. In a 2008 IPCC Special Report on water, researchers warn, “Freshwater reservoirs are vulnerable and have potential to be strongly impacted by climate change, with wide-ranging consequences for human societies and ecosystems” (Bates et al. 2008). Water supply and quality are vital components of everyday life for living organisms. This resource must be guarded and maintained. Water is a top global priority, and thus makes mountains a priority (Barnett, Adam, and Lettenmaier 2005). Their 16 | P a g e crucial role in the hydrologic process has earned mountains the title “water towers of the world” (Kreutzmann 1999; Messerli 1999). Mountain water supplies are closely linked to the cryosphere in snow-dominated hydrologic systems. Snow, ice, rain, and groundwater supply streams with water throughout the year. The frozen components allow water supplies to continue even during dry, hot seasons. Snow and ice accumulate in the highlands over the winter with minimal melt occurring during the cold months. Lower elevations experience multiple freeze-thaw cycles throughout the winter. Higher elevations tend to stay frozen for the duration of the winter season, serving as reservoirs of freshwater. This water store creates a steady supply of water during the season when most plant growth and animal reproduction occurs (Liu et al. 2003; Barnett, Adam, and Lettenmaier 2005). Natural systems in the mid-latitudes are highly attuned to the balance of annual warmcold and wet-dry cycles. Spring begins the ablation season with a rapid release of water when conditions are right (Liu et al. 2003). Maintenance of this cycle is dependent on cryogenic controls. As discussed in Section IV, permafrost layers drive hydrology in alpine systems. The active permafrost layer stores and releases water through seasonal freeze-thaw cycles. The transition layer acts as a buffer between the active and perennially frozen layer. This layer experiences the most variability, remaining frozen for several years and completely thawing in others. The concern with increasing temperatures and decreasing snowfall is that the balance between these layers will be disturbed and result in destruction or severe degradation of the cryogenic ecosystem (Shur, Hinkel, and Nelson 2005). 17 | P a g e Changes in the cryosphere have already been observed in glacial retreat, melting of ice caps and sheets, change in the thickness of the active permafrost layer (Figure 2), disappearance of lentic systems, and increased river flow (Shur, Hinkel, and Nelson 2005; Anisimov et al. 2007; Lemke et al. 2007). Some of these changes to ice forms have been induced by an increased air and surface temperatures. Others are a result of change in the amount of precipitation that falls as rain rather than snow. Rain in place of snow degrades the snow fields that release water more slowly and steadily than the bare-ground counterpart. Rain over glaciers can induce extreme glacial runoff events that cause catastrophic flooding. Climatic shifts are directly responsible for this type of cryogenic degradation (Collins 1999). Figure 2. Changes in the permafrost active layer around the North Pole since 1992. Alphanumeric labels designate study sites (Lemke et al. 2007). 18 | P a g e Environmental changes in the present and near future create a complex web of management decisions. For example, increasing river flow may have some initial benefits. Greater river volume increases the immediate water supply and could be harnessed for hydroelectric power (Ives, Messerli, and Spiess 1997; Anisimov et al. 2007). However, the cost of such a scheme may not outweigh the benefits. The infrastructure of hydroelectric plants requires time and money to implement and is vulnerable to slope failure, which would compromise accessibility, structural integrity, and watershed runoff. In addition, these high water supplies are not likely to last in the long-term because they are the result of melt that is not being replenished in equal amount during the winter (Kreutzmann 1999). This example is a mere glimpse of the policy and management issues faces officials. People are beginning to understand that the health of the mountains cannot be sacrificed to immediate profits. Longterm mitigation is where monetary and research efforts should have priority (Ives, Messerli, and Spiess 1997). Much work remains, but progress has certainly been made. The list of priorities in mountain research and development expanded significantly in progress reports from the task managers overseeing Agenda 21’s Chapter 13 initiatives. The awareness of mountain sensitivity as well as cooperation among governments, agencies, and local populations has seen improvement (Sene and McGuire 1997). The increase in GIS applications and integration has also vastly improved the efficiency and quality of research efforts on behalf of the mountains. Section VII. Models of Change: GISys applications The strength of GISys lies not in the ability to manage and display data. Rather, the modeling applications of GISys show the real power of the technology (Heywood, Price, and 19 | P a g e Petch 1994). The past two decades have been dominated by policy motivated studies, which have yielded much baseline data (Funnell and Price 2003; Heywood, Price, and Petch 1994). Predictive models of this data show researchers and policymakers where to focus future initiatives. For example, Khromova and Chernova report on a study to record snow and glacier extent using GISys. Their work studied glacier dynamics as a means to model climate change. Their study showed the importance of ice to climate, sea level, power supply, irrigation, and recreation (Khromova and Chernova 1999). Walsh and his group included very detailed GISysoriented goals in their research. Their study assessed treeline change in light of natural hazards, avalanche locations, disturbances, and climate variables. This group used remotely sensed data and land cover data for spatial analysis. They also modeled change within the alpine environment they studied. The research effort demonstrated that treeline is highly sensitive to slope, exposure, and climatic conditions (Walsh et al. 1994). As mentioned previously, global climate change can affect slope stability and local climate patterns. The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems was examined by researchers such as Patrick Halpin. His analysis used GISys to explore the relationship between climate change and mountain areas. This study used different GCM predictions to demonstrate the complexity of change that will be experienced in mountain systems. The modeled conclusion of this study was that mountain ecosystems will be affected by a cascade of environmental and ecological feedbacks with complicated interactions that will be triggered by climate change (Halpin 1994). A study of China’s Qinghai-Xizang Plateau used a GISys aided model to show the affect of climate change in the permafrost layers on the Plateau. According to the GCM used in this study, permafrost on the Plateau will completely disappear by 2099 (Li 20 | P a g e and Cheng 1999). Another example of GISys modeling is the snow and ice mapping system (IMS) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The IMS model was developed to automate mapping of snow and ice extents. The model synthesizes data from satellite images, daily snow and ice ground measurements, and weekly sea ice edge measurements. The platform is far more efficient and accurate than previous methods of manually mapping the data (Ramsey 1998). This is an extraordinarily brief look at GISys applications for climate change in the mountains. It is merely a glance to show important GISys feedback from current climate change and impact in mountain environments. GISys can be used and refined with GCM predictors and ground data to examine future environmental impacts and iteratively model the subsequent effects and feedbacks. This process must been conducted carefully and with reliable data (Brown et al. 2003; Klinkenberg 2007). GISys models demonstrate that mountain systems are complex. Their interaction with climate change is shows further complexity. GISys aids the study of mountains and climate change, but there is always room for improvement (Halpin 1994; Heywood, Price, and Petch 1994). Continued research efforts and technological development must continue to increase understanding and appropriate responses. Section VII. Concluding remarks Mountains are important to people and to the environment. The cryogenic regions of mountains are important for stability and water in the mountains. Resource stability and land surface stability are important to people and to the health of the environment. Cryogenic and mountain water sources are essential to the hydrologic processes that hydrant the earth and its inhabitants. Climate change places the cryosphere in jeopardy. The cascade of feedbacks from 21 | P a g e change to the cryosphere alone affects the rest of the mountain environment, regional and global hydrology, and human establishments. In order to preserve these attributes, an active research plan is essential. Implementation of GISci is a powerful way to combine data and model the interaction between climate change and mountain environments. The beauty of the GISys model is that an iterative approach can be taken to examine observed change and predict future change. Within this workspace, great strides are still needed in understanding natural systems, developing appropriate technologies, and implementing effective mitigation plans. The task involves cooperation across the board between nations and within nations. The importance of sustainability has long been recognized, but its significance is now being realized by the masses. Change must come not in methods to produce more, but in ways to use less (Sauer 1956). The water focus of this paper stresses this point. Predictions show freshwater supplies shrinking. Using water more sustainably is an absolute necessity. Water plans must include strategies to protect water supplies for natural environments as well as human populations (Anisimov et al. 2007; Bates et al. 2008). A big step toward global water sustainability is preservation of the cryosphere. The frozen expanses at the extremes of our planet are formidable places for humans. But these regions support life cycles around the globe. Research has shown that climate change can infiltrate this fortress. Precautious must be taken to prevent degradation of the cryogenic systems (Bates et al. 2008). A comprehensive geographic perspective is needed for this task to combine physical science, social science, and advanced geospatial technologies. Returning to Humboldtian principles, research in this critical area must be holistic (Livingstone 1992). It must look at physical processes and trends of change. The approach must consider political, societal, and 22 | P a g e economic constraints. And the resulting mitigation plans need to be communicated relevantly and effectively to the general population. We only have one earth and it is within our vested interest to preserve it. This is a tall order, but we must rise to the occasion. 23 | P a g e Bibliography Anisimov, O.A., D. G. Vaughan, T. V. Callaghan, C. Furgal, H. Marchant, T. D. Prowse, H. Vilhjalmsson, and J. E. Walsh. 2007. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic). 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