Download Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Community

Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity and
Community Livelihoods in the Katavi Ecosystem
Externship Report: Tanzania
2011
Submitted by:
Candida E. Mwingira
Manase Elisa Pallangyo
Rurangwa Felix
Nancy Pima
Godwell Elias Ole Meing’ataki
Seif Salum
Education and Training Program on
Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Albertine Rift
Published by:
The International START Secretariat, 2000 Florida Avenue NW, Suite 200, Washington DC 20009, USA
in collaboration with:
The Pan-African START Secretariat (PASS), Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA), University of Dar es
Salaam, Tanzania
With support from:
The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
(Disclaimer: The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies with the authors. START,
PASS/IRA and the MacArthur Foundation are not responsible for the information contained herein)
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Table of Contents
About ............................................................................................................................................... v
Summary Project Information ..................................................................................................... vi
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... vii
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Background information ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Problem statement and justification .................................................................................... 2 1.3. Research objectives ............................................................................................................. 2 2. Literature Review ................................................................................................................... 4 2.1. An overview of current and future climate change ............................................................. 4 2.2. Climate change impacts on biodiversity ............................................................................. 5 2.3. Climate change impacts on livelihoods in Africa ............................................................... 6 2.4. Overview of climate change in Tanzania ............................................................................ 6 3. Material and Methods .......................................................................................................... 11 3.1. Study area .......................................................................................................................... 11 3.2. Study design and sampling design .................................................................................... 13 3.3. Data collection................................................................................................................... 14 3.4. Data analysis ..................................................................................................................... 15 4. Results and Discussion.......................................................................................................... 16 4.1. Impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of communities adjacent to Katavi National
Park ................................................................................................................................. 17 4.2. Impact of climate change on large mammals population and distribution pattern in Katavi
National Park .................................................................................................................. 21 4.3. Non-climatic factors influencing biodiversity management and provision of ecosystem
services in the Katavi ecosystem .................................................................................... 26 4.4. Community livelihood adaptive and coping strategies to climate change impacts........... 28 4.5. Adaptations by large mammals to climate change impacts .............................................. 29 5. Conclusion and Recommendations ..................................................................................... 31 5.1. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 31 5.2. Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 31 6. References .............................................................................................................................. 32 List of Figures
Fig. 1: Location of Katavi National Park ...................................................................................... 11 Fig. 2: Katavi Ecosystem ............................................................................................................... 12 Fig. 3: Anomalies (mm) from mean rainfall at Katavi National Park, 1997-2010........................ 17 Fig. 4: Anomalies from mean minimum temperature at Katavi National Park 1997 - 2010......... 17 Fig. 5: Major economic activities undertaken by the studied community ..................................... 18 Fig. 6: Hippopotamus congregating in small water pools due to water shortage in the river
system ............................................................................................................................................. 22 Fig. 7: Incidences of crop damage by hippopotamus in villages adjacent to KNP. ...................... 24 Fig. 8: Animals causing conflicts with surrounding communities ................................................. 25 Fig. 9: Tobacco cultivation in Katuma River catchment forest ..................................................... 26 Fig. 10: Weir for water abstraction for irrigation farming from Katuma River, north of KNP. ... 27 Fig. 11: Herd of cattle drinking water from Katuma River upstream areas ................................. 28 Fig. 12: Crocodiles hiding in a small hole dug on the edge of the dry river ................................. 30 List of Tables
Table 1: Villages and households interviewed ............................................................................... 13 Table 2: Annual rainfall and average temperature at Katavi National Park HQ in Sitalike, 19972010 ................................................................................................................................................ 16 Table 3: Locally perceived changes in agricultural activities ....................................................... 18 Table 4: Counts of dead animals along the Katuma River ............................................................ 23 Table 5: Types of human-wildlife conflicts in the study villages ................................................... 24 Table 6: Trend of human-wildlife conflicts .................................................................................... 25 About the Education and Training Program on Climate Change and Biodiversity in
the Albertine Rift
This capacity building program addresses the challenge of managing emerging risks to
biodiversity from climate change in the Albertine Rift region of Africa, which encompasses parts
of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Congo, and Uganda. The program, hosted at the Institute of
Resource Assessment (IRA), University of Dar es Salaam, offers MS-level courses and
externships for conservation practitioners and researchers from the region. The MS-level courses
focus on climate change risks to ecosystems and biodiversity and explore strategies for
conserving biodiversity in a changing climate. Externships allow program participants, working
in country teams, to apply knowledge from the classroom to field-based assessments in the
Albertine Rift. Findings from the externship research are documented in reports such as this. A
special training of trainers’ module equips faculty from regional universities with information,
tools and resources to help them to develop courses on climate change and biodiversity at their
universities.
Two rounds of the program have been held to date, in 2008 and 2010 respectively. More than 45
participants have successfully received training from expert faculty drawn mainly from regional
universities. As a result the program has helped foster a network of individuals and institutions in
the Albertine Rift region engaged in addressing climate change risks to biodiversity. The existing
Masters Program in Natural Resource Assessment and Management at IRA has also benefited
from the integration of courses from this capacity building initiative into that program’s
curriculum.
The International START Secretariat and the Pan-African START Secretariat (PASS), based at
the Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA), University of Dar es Salaam, jointly implement this
effort with funding from the MacArthur Foundation.
Additional information on the program is available at: http://start.org/programs/biodiversity.
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Summary Project Information
Project Title:
Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Community Livelihoods in the Katavi Ecosystem
Project Investigators:
1. Candida E. Mwingira: Serengeti Lion Project, Tanzania; Email:
[email protected]
2. Manase Elisa Pallangyo: Tanzania National Parks, Tanzania; Email:
[email protected]
3. Rurangwa Felix: Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania; Email:
[email protected]
4. Nancy Pima: Tanzania Forestry Research Institute, Tanzania; Email:
[email protected]
5. Godwell Elias Ole Meing’ataki: Tanzania National Parks, Tanzania; Email:
[email protected]
6. Seif Salum: PM-TAMISEM, Tanzania; Email: [email protected]
Project Supervisor:
Dr. Richard Kangalawe: Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA), University of Dar es Salaam;
Email: [email protected]
Externship host institution: Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA), University of Dar es
Salaam
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Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Community Livelihoods
in the Katavi Ecosystem
Executive summary
Climate change can have significant negative impacts on the natural environment including the
loss of biodiversity and changes in ecosystems. In developing countries with a greater
dependence on natural resource based livelihoods, this can impact the socio-economic status of
communities, hamper progress towards development goals and present an overall threat to
sustainable development. Several species around the world are now affected by the combined
impacts of climate factors and their interactions with other anthropogenic stressors such as
encroachment, land fragmentation and destruction of natural habitats. Together, climate and nonclimatic stressors may have considerable impacts on the ecosystems functions and on ecosystem
services.
Climate change is likely to affect most of Africa’s natural resources with a range of potential
impacts on both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Climate change impacts such as rising
temperatures and declining rainfall in combination with other stresses could result in the shifting
of ecological zones, loss of flora and fauna and an overall reduction in ecological productivity.
This study presented in this report was designed to analyze the impacts of climate change on
biodiversity and community livelihoods in Katavi ecosystem. Six research questions were
investigated in this study: i) What are the impacts of climate change on community livelihood in
areas adjacent to the Katavi National Park? ii) What are the large wild animals mostly affected by
the impacts of climate change and how their distribution changed in Katavi National Park? iii)
What are the ecosystem functions and services mostly affected by the impacts of climate change?
iv) What are the non-climatic factors that influence biodiversity management and provision of
ecosystem services in the Katavi ecosystem? v) What are the coping and adaptive strategies
(measures) used by adjacent communities and park management to address the climate change
issues? and vi) What are the coping and adaptive measures used by large mammals in response
to the climate change impacts?
Both primary and secondary data were collected in order to respond to the presented research
questions. Primary data was collected from household interviews, focus group discussions and
key informant interviews. Secondary data was obtained from literature and other secondary
sources. Statistical analysis of the data yielded that about 38% of respondents reported a decrease
in agricultural productivity by about 30-40% in the past few years mainly due to decreased and
delayed rainfall and also an increase in temperature. Surveys conducted in the villages in southern
and northern parts of Katavi National Park revealed that climate change contributed to water
scarcity in the ecosystem, which has resulted in the crowding of large mammals in the few
remaining water points. In addition, non-climatic stressors, especially the use of river water for
irrigation farming, encroachment of natural areas by settlements, livestock rearing and agriculture
pose a serious threat to the health of the Katavi ecosystem. This also leads to various humanwildlife conflicts. For instance 93% of the respondents in the studied villages reported humanwildlife conflicts to be a common occurrence especially during rainy seasons. About 63% of
these conflicts were reported in farms close to the National Park, partly due to increasing land use
change involving conversion of buffer zones to farms and settlements. About 25% of respondents
also reported that wild animals move from the park into the villages in dry seasons searching for
water as one of their adaptation strategies.
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Various solutions were proposed by respondents, including close collaboration between villagers
and wildlife departments; fencing the park area; stopping cultivation near the park; and
establishing patrol camps along the buffer zone. Besides fencing, which is expensive and may
restrict the free movement of animals, most of the other suggested measures are feasible, and
possible to implement by the communities and the park management. Effective implementation
of the suggested solutions would, however, need close collaboration between villagers and
relevant wildlife management departments. Furthermore, the government should facilitate
sustainable irrigation farming and discourage cultivation near the park, in wildlife corridors and
in the catchment forests to minimize potential negative impacts on both the community
livelihoods and wild animals.
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1. Introduction
1.1. Background information
Climate change refers to the change in weather patterns such as temperature, precipitation and
wind over a period of time, ranging from months to millions of years. The classical period often
referred to in climate change studies is 30 years (Hananh et al., 2005). Climate change is largely
attributed to both natural and anthropogenic factors (IPCC, 1996, 2007b). Natural factors such as
solar variations and volcanic activities occur beyond human involvement. Anthropogenic factors
are human based activities causing changes in earth’s atmosphere.
Climate change can have significant negative impacts on the natural environment including the
loss of biodiversity and changes in ecosystems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (2007a), any increase in global average temperature above the range of 1.52.5°C is likely to result in significant alterations in the structure, function and geographical ranges
of ecosystems, thus negatively influencing species distribution and survival. In developing
countries with a greater dependence on natural resource based livelihoods, this can impact the
socio-economic status of communities, hamper progress towards development goals and present
an overall threat to sustainable development (IPCC, 2007a). Several species around the world are
now affected by the combined impacts of climate factors and their interactions with other
anthropogenic stressors such as encroachment, land fragmentation and destruction of natural
habitats. Together, climate and non-climatic stressors may have considerable impacts on the
ecosystems functions and on ecosystem services (Lovejoy at al., 2005).
African ecosystems comprise a variety of flora and fauna, which constitute about 20 percent of all
known species in the world (Biggs et al., 2004). Several of these species are under threat from a
changing climate. Climate change is likely to affect most of Africa’s natural resources with a
range of potential impacts on both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (Leemans and Eickhout,
2004; Boko et al., 2007). Climate change impacts such as rising temperatures and declining
rainfall in combination with other stresses could result in the shifting of ecological zones, loss of
flora and fauna and an overall reduction in ecological productivity in Africa (Boko et al., 2007).
The impacts of climate change can also create increasing friction between protected area
managers and local communities bordering protected areas as wild animals and community
increasingly compete for the scarce resources (Lovejoy at al., 2005).
The Katavi National Park (KNP) in western Tanzania is one of the most pristine parks in Africa
endowed with rich biodiversity. Katavi National Park has the second highest number of mammals
than any other protected area in East Africa, after Lake Manyara National Park (Caro, 1999). It is
composed of a true representation of Miombo woodlands of western Tanzania. The vegetation is
a colorful mosaic including deciduous woodlands of varying canopy cover, bushlands, vast
grasslands, swamps, seasonal lakes and riverine woodlands with tall trees (Meyer at al., 2006).
The biodiversity of KNP is being threatened by the effects of climate change whose signs are
already evident.
This study is aimed at assessing the impacts of climate change and other stressors on large
mammals in the northern, central and southern parts of KNP. It examines the influence of
multiple stressors on ecosystems functions and services and therefore on the livelihoods of
adjacent communities. The study also elucidates the role played by the community in terms of
coping and adapting to the impacts of these changes.
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1.2. Problem statement and justification
In KNP, the large mammal diversity and the associated environment are one of the major tourist
attractions that contribute to income generation. According to the IPCC (2001a, b), large
mammals are subject to a wide range of environmental stresses during their lifetime including
changes in climate. There is limited information available on the impact of climate change on the
large mammal’s population in KNP; understanding the likely influence of climate change on the
individual mammal species will requires an in-depth understanding of species ecology and life
history parameters as well as how they may respond to changes in local climate.
The impact of climate change on the livelihoods of communities’ living adjacent to KNP is also
not well documented. This study therefore analyzes the current and potential impacts of climatic
and non-climatic changes on the Katavi ecosystem, including implications for large mammals and
community livelihoods. It also examines adaptive and coping strategies used by the local
communities. It therefore contributes towards an understanding of the influence of multiple
stressors on ecosystem functions and ecosystem services.
The baseline field information from this study together with existing meteorological data can
guide the development of future adaptation strategies for the park’s biodiversity, ecosystems and
local communities. Findings from this study will thus be useful for policy and decision making
processes relevant to biodiversity conservation in a changing climate and sustaining ecosystem
services to support for human well-being.
1.3. Research objectives
Overall Objective
The overall objective of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change and other nonclimatic stressors on biodiversity and community livelihoods in the Katavi Ecosystem.
Specific Objective
The specific objectives were:
1. To assess the impact of climate change on the population and distribution of large
mammals in KNP.
2. To assess the ecosystem functions and services which are mostly affected by the impacts
of climate change.
3. To examine non-climatic factors that influence biodiversity conservation and provision of
ecosystem services in the Katavi ecosystem.
4. To assess the adaptive and coping measures of large mammals on climate change
5. To assess the impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of communities adjacent to
KNP.
6. To assess the adaptive and/or coping strategies of community and park management to
climate change impacts.
Research Questions
1. What are the large wild animals most affected by the impacts of climate change and how
has distribution pattern changed in KNP?
2. What are the ecosystem functions and services mostly affected by the impacts of climate
change?
3. What are the non-climatic factors that influence biodiversity conservation and provision of
ecosystem services in the Katavi ecosystem?
4. What are the coping and adaptive measures used by large mammals in response to the
climate change impacts?
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5. What are the impacts of climate change on community livelihood in areas adjacent to KNP?
6. What are the coping and adaptive strategies used by park management adjacent
communities and to address climate change issues?
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2. Literature Review
This chapter reviews literature related to climate change impacts on biodiversity and its
conservation. It provides a global overview of current and future climate change and of climate
change impacts in Africa. The review further analyses implications of climate change for
biodiversity, ecosystem services and livelihoods in Tanzania and examines potential strategies for
biodiversity conservation and community adaptation.
2.1. An overview of current and future climate change
The term climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural
variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC, 1996, 2007b). It is largely attributed to changes
in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, in solar radiation and in land
surface properties. Since pre-industrial times a marked increase has been noted in the atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide primarily
due to human activities such as fossil fuel burning, land-use change and agricultural activities.
This has resulted in the alteration of the energy balance of the climate system and manifesting as
increases in temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, and more frequent and severe extreme
events among other effects (IPCC, 2007b).
According to observations reported by the IPCC (2007b), the lower atmosphere is warming up
faster than anticipated and an increase in global surface temperature of about 0.76°C has been
noted between the 1850-1899 and the 2001-2005. A warming of 0.2°C is projected for the next
two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade. Trends in precipitation over the 1900-2005
period showed an increase in the eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and
northern and central Asia and a decrease in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and
southern Asia. Future precipitation projections suggest a high likelihood of increases in the higher
latitudes and decreases in subtropical regions. An increase in the frequency and intensity of
extreme events has also been noted since the last century. Overall it is projected that the
increasing concentration of greenhouse gases would result in several changes in the global
climate system over the course of the 21st century that are expected to be larger than those
observed over the 20th century (IPCC, 2007b). This has significant implications for the survival of
natural systems, many of which are already being affected by the temperature increases (IPCC,
2007a).
Climate change in Africa
Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change mainly due to poverty,
lack of awareness, lack of access to knowledge and a high dependence on natural resources and
rain-fed agriculture. About 70% of people in Africa depend on agriculture for their livelihood,
while 40% of all exports are of agriculture produce (WRI, 1996; Mugabe et al., 2000; McCarthy
et al., 2001; IPCC 2001; WWF, 2002). The historical climate record for Africa shows increased
warming rates since the 1960s with a warming of approximately 0.7°C over most of the continent
noted during the twentieth century. A decrease in rainfall over large portions of the Sahel (the
semiarid region south of the Sahara) and an increase in rainfall in east and central Africa has also
been observed (Low, 2005; WWF, 2002). This is already impacting critical sectors such as water
resources, food production, human health and biodiversity and resulting in increased
desertification trends across the continent (IPCC, 2007a; McCarthy et al., 2001).
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2.2. Climate change impacts on biodiversity
Many species around the world are now affected by the combined impacts of natural climate
variability and anthropogenic climate change and their interactions with other human stressors
such as the encroachment, fragmentation and destruction of natural habitats (Hananh 2005). Often
various wild animal species respond to climatic stressors by migrating and shifting their ranges to
areas with more favorable conditions. This has already been noted in the case of birds, marine life
forms, butterflies and insects in response to the changes in climate that have already taken place,
particularly the increase in temperature (Hananh et al., 2005). Besides, many range-restricted
species, chiefly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the
first groups among which entire species extinctions have been noted due to the recent changes in
climate (Parmesan, 2006). It has also been observed that, tropical coral reefs and amphibians have
been the most negatively affected. The differential responses of species to warming have also
been reported to have disrupted predator-prey and plant-insect relationships (Parmesan, 2006).
According to the IPCC (2007a), any increase in global average temperature above the range of
1.5-2.5°C is likely to result in significant alterations in the structure, function and geographical
ranges of ecosystems thus negatively influencing species distribution and survival. In most cases
ecosystem responses to climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations are
expected to be non-linear in nature and the surpassing some of critical threshold values are likely
to induce sudden transitions in state. Terrestrial ecosystems are also likely to initially experience
increased growth from CO2 fertilization effects but these benefits are projected to be soon
overshadowed by the negative impacts of increased temperature by the end of the 21st century.
Overall a very high possibility of irreversible losses of biodiversity as a result of such changes in
climate are projected with many terrestrial, freshwater and marine species being placed at a much
greater risk of extinction than before (Fischlin et al., 2007).
Strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change
Traditional biodiversity conservation strategies have been designed under the assumption of a
relatively static environment; an idea that is now challenged by the influence of the rapid rate of
climate change on ecosystem boundaries and species distribution, already threatened by the
impacts of human stressors. As a result existing conservation strategies now need to be revised in
order to respond to the new challenges posed by a changing climate and its synergistic
interactions with a multitude of other human stressors, which is expected to result in ecosystem
range shifts and species migrations. The management of natural areas must therefore account for
such natural transitions (Hannah et al., 2005).
According to Lovejoy (2005), two of the biggest threats to biodiversity under climate change are
habitat loss and invasive alien species. Habitat loss is likely to pose a significant barrier in the
ability of species to track a changing climate while invasive species such as, various types of
weeds, may thrive in environments that are no longer hospitable to their original inhabitants.
Therefore, though the traditional methods and tools of conservation would still be relevant, they
would nonetheless need to the modified where necessary to provide for the flexibility that
migratory species will need in tracking changing climates. Importantly, such strategies will need
to include the addition of new protected areas to allow for range shifts and the maintenance of
connectivity between habitats to enable successful species migrations (Lovejoy, 2005; Hannah et
al., 2005). In addition, from the human perspective, such strategies will also need to ensure
sustainability in the provision of ecosystem goods and services and the maintenance of
subsistence livelihoods for indigenous populations (Fischlin and Midgley, 2007). In East Africa,
the recent expansion of the Ruaha National Park undertaken by annexing the neighboring areas,
such as Ihefu wetlands in the Usangu plains, seems to respond to the above concerns.
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2.3. Climate change impacts on livelihoods in Africa
Agriculture is the most important economic sector in Africa and accounts for more than 40% of
total export earnings. In sub-Saharan Africa, its share in total export revenues averages about 70
percent. One third of the national income in Africa is generated by agriculture. The agricultural
sector is in fact the largest domestic producer across the continent and employs between 70% and
90% of the total labor force in most sub-Saharan African countries. Agriculture supplies up to
50% of household food requirements and up to 50% of household incomes. However, agriculture
and agro-ecological systems in general are most vulnerable to climate change, especially in
Africa. Food production in most of sub-Saharan Africa has been on the decline, and has not kept
pace with the population increase. Over the past 30 years, the area of agricultural land has
increased (from 166 million ha in 1970 to 202 million ha in 1999) at great cost to the environment.
However these efforts have been absorbed by rapid population growth (FAO, 2004).
The main effect of climate change on semiarid or tropical agro-ecological systems is a significant
reduction in crop yield, which in Africa, may well force large areas of marginal agriculture out of
production. Global warming could reduce rainfall and shorten growing seasons in the tropics to
less than the minimum 120 days required for most cereal crops (Devereux and Edwards, 2004).
Results from recent country assessments show that most of the crops modeled tend to have
decreased yields; tropical crops such as grasses, sugarcane, rice, maize, millet and sorghum are
particularly vulnerable (US Country Studies Program, 1999; Desanker et al., 2001).
Projected loses in cereal production potentials in sub-Saharan Africa will be about 33 percent by
2060. By the 2080s, the net balance of changes in cereal-production potential for sub-Saharan
Africa will very likely be negative, with net losses of up to 12% of the region’s current
production (Gitay et al., 2001; Parry et al. 1999). It is also estimated that up to 40% of subSaharan countries will loose a rather substantial share of their agricultural resources (implying a
loss at 1990 prices of US$10-60 billion). The distribution of these loses is not uniform as certain
countries will be affected more than others. It is also projected that by 2100, Chad, Niger and
Zambia will lose practically their entire farming sector (Mendelssohn et al., 2000). As such,
Africa will not benefit from CO2 stabilization since cereal crop yields will still decrease by 2.5 to
5% by the years 2080s (Arnell et al., 2002).
2.4. Overview of climate change in Tanzania
Tanzania is endowed with abundant natural resources and rich biological diversity due to its
diverse ecosystems, topography and climate. Apart from vast areas of arable land, she has
extensive forest and wildlife resources, rangelands, aquatic resources and minerals. Her species
richness and endemism and ecosystem diversity make her one of the fourteen biological diversity
hotspot countries in the world along with such countries as Indonesia, Brazil, Zaire and
Madagascar. On average, Tanzania ranks fourth out of the 48 countries in the Afro-tropical
Realm, 3rd for birds and 2nd for reptiles, amphibians and plants. The number of higher plant
species is estimated at nearly 11,000, with about 600 species (over 60% of all Tanzania's endemic
plant species) being endemic in the Eastern Arc Mountains (URT, 2001).
A number of studies conducted recently in Tanzania have recognized that climate change and
variability is happening and is coupled with significant impacts on these natural resources
including agriculture which is the main source of livelihood in rural areas (Agrawala et al., 2003;
Majule, 2008; Majule et al., 2008). The wider global climate change trends are greatly reflected
in Tanzania’s climate. Because of her geographical location and the topographical characteristics,
the country offers the best opportunity to study and further understand global climate trends.
Recent research suggests that, along with other East African countries, climate change is having
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significant impacts on Tanzania. Deteriorating water quality and quantity, loss of biodiversity
and declining agricultural productivity due to climate change, are no longer potential threats but
rather threats that have already materialized and caused Tanzanians repeated misery (Yanda,
2005).
Mean annual temperatures and average daily temperatures are expected to rise by 2 to 4oC in
Tanzania by 2075 as a direct consequence of climate change (URT, 2003). The country is
however projected to warm up less than many other African countries notably those in
northwestern and southern Africa (URT, 2007). Interestingly, the interior parts of the country are
projected to face higher temperature increases than coastal areas whilst cold and dry seasons will
warm more than warm and wet seasons (Mwandosya, et al., 1998). Apart from temperature data,
change in rainfall patterns is likely to be more torturous and with immediate severe effects. In
Tanzania, rainfall models indicate that rainfall will become less predictable and their intensity
more volatile (IPCC, 2001). Tanzania expects to have a decrease in rainfall by between 0 to 20%
in the inner parts of the land. Northeast, southeast and the Lake Victoria basin however, expects
to have a total increase in rainfall by between 20 to 50% (Mwandosya, et al., 1998, Hulme, et al.,
2001). Such major changes in rainfall patterns will inevitably have severe consequences to the
society, some of which (repeated droughts and floods) are already happening (Ibid).
Recent studies on climate change in Tanzania show that there will be an increase in extreme
weather events (URT, 2003) namely, flooding, droughts, cyclones, tropical storms all of which
are projected to be more intense, frequent and unpredictable (Ibid). The vulnerability of the
country to such extreme weather events can gauged from the recurring drought conditions and the
El Niño seasons of 1992-1993 and 1997-1998. In terms of impacts to the society, the El Niño
episodes were very significant because they were accompanied by heavy socio-economic losses.
The episodes resulted in nationwide power blackouts and rationing, massive losses of livestock
and agricultural crops, food shortages and sky rocketing prices (Paavola, 2003). Consequently,
the government had to introduce emergency food aid to many parts of the country during which
families walked up to 50kms to receive their handouts. Most importantly, the El Niño resulted in
widespread diseases namely, malaria, diarrhea and cholera which added economic hardships to
families and the government. Moreover, there were widespread damage to infrastructure and
property and loss of livelihoods, which overwhelmed the country and its people (URT, 2003).
Under climate change, events such as floods and droughts can regularly have substantial effects
on economic performance and livelihood of communities in rural areas that depend on rain-fed
agriculture (Lyimo and Kangalawe, 2010).
Regardless of her low level of development, Tanzania also contributes to global warming mainly
through deforestation, large animal herds and overgrazing, mining activities, industrial and
vehicular air pollution, land use changes, and poor waste management and disposal. Generally
however, Tanzania’s contribution to causes of climate change is very low in comparison to other
countries. In terms of contribution by sector, land use change in the country contributes more to
the problems than fossil fuel emission primarily because of its low level of development. Thus,
efforts to combat climate variability in the country will have to focus more on land use change
sector (UNEP, 1999). On the other side, Tanzania contributes significantly in carbon
sinking/sequestration via its massive ocean environment, wetlands, forests and land.
An overview of response and adaptation measures to climate change in Tanzania
Addressing climate change is one thing Tanzania must do. Any successful breakthrough in
poverty alleviation in the country will have to include climate change mitigations by the
government and its institutions, private sector and the general community at various levels.
Generally, climate change adaptation measures in Tanzania will be different from society to
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society owing to its geographical, sociological and economical characteristics. Some studies have
shown that some societies in Tanzania are already coping with the effects of climate change
(Shayo, 2006, Ponte, 1998). However, such adaptation mechanisms are hampered by the severity
and the speed of climate change effects, widespread corruption and resource constraints. In this
paper, adaptation measures in the country will be addressed separately for local people and the
government and its institutions.
Local level: Indigenous initiatives to living with climate change vulnerability
As the effects of climate change in Tanzania continue to impoverish the population, became more
severe and of repeated nature, different societies developed/relied on diverse local strategies to
cope with the challenge. Worth noting, most local people find it hard to cope with climate change
using modern technologies like high input agriculture and biotechnology and have relied on their
indigenous skills. However, most of these local coping strategies could only be applicable in a
short term and/or less severe impacts. The strategies are likely to leave populations vulnerable to
both climate change and the associated poverty in the longer term (Orindi and Murray, 2005).
The various coping strategies by different societies in the country are collectively discussed
hereunder. As a direct outcome of climate change, local people in some parts of Tanzania have
adopted to other activities apart from their traditional livelihood, agriculture. In places where
climate change has resulted into repeated agricultural failures, it is now common to find members
of typical farming villages doing extra farm activities to maximize survival. Such activities may
include, charcoal burning, brick making, fishing, casual laboring depending on the geographical
locations and seasons (Shayo, 2006). Climate change has also forced people to move from their
villages to urban areas for paid employment. For example, it is common to find young people
mostly after primary education moving to big cities to look for jobs. Sadly, employment
opportunities are limited and some end up being jobless and even harassed.
In addition both farmers and pastoralists have adapted to some local ways of predicting short to
long-term climatic changes such as drought. Once the drought is locally predicted, pastoralist
would distribute livestock and/or shifting herd to safer places to reduce risk. Northern societies
namely Barabaig and Masaai have particularly been involved in transhumance. For example,
Morogoro region has observed huge influx of pastoralists with large herd of livestock (Paavola,
2003). In addition, when drought is likely, pastoralists in drought-prone areas have adapted to
reserve pasture for weak stocks such as sick, young, and lactating animals. Such a method would
enable them to survive during the drought season and reduce deaths of weak individuals (Shayo,
2006). Moreover, the repeated occurrence of climate disasters has forced some pastoralist
societies in Tanzania to reduce the numbers of their herd as a coping mechanism. Interestingly,
some pastoralist societies have even strategized into paid employments in cities and cultivation of
food crops (Ibid).
Farmers on the other hand, would grow traditionally drought-resistant crops such as sorghum,
cassava and millet rather than maize (which has been failing many farmers) when drought is
anticipated (Ibid). In addition, intercropping with the aim of maximizing harvest is becoming
common. According to Shayo, (2006), it is common to find more than five different crops being
grown in a piece of land in the common drought-prone areas. Yet some farmers would open up
of larger pieces of land for agricultural activities and applying more agricultural inputs in
attempting to have better harvest. Places where irrigated agriculture is possible people have been
trying to water their crops in the absence of rainfall. Apart from that, some farmers have also
changed planting seasons as affected by potential drought occurrence (Orinda and Murray, 2005).
Interestingly also, some local people have developed their own skills related to disease control to
crops, animals and even stored of grains. According to (Shayo, 2006), some societies use their
8
local skills to control livestock diseases as an adaptive strategy to counter the effect climate
change. Grains are preserved using traditional skills rather than the conventional methods in the
country. It is common to find local people storing their grains especially seeds above kitchen so
that the smoke will help to preserve the grains against seed pests. Some skills also exist in terms
of animal disease control (Ibid).
Furthermore, as climate change continues to increase scarcity of wood near neighborhoods, some
communitiess have turned to growing their own trees for fuel wood consumption instead of
relying on the scarce and unreliable supply from the surrounding areas. Regions where tree
planting is becoming common include Tanga, Kilimanjaro and Morogoro among others. Usually
fast growing trees such as Gravellia robusta and Eucalyptus spp are popular. Regrettably, the
latter species is known for its own environmental problems (FAO, 1998). In addition, rainfall is
scarce and many trees grow with difficult and take longer to grow. Yet many people are adapting
to the use of fuel saving stoves, which generally, are affordable, easy to make and use less fuel
wood.
National level: The government and institutions
Tanzania government has taken steps to address the crucial issue of climate change and wider
environmental issues in the country. In the international arena for example, Tanzania is also a
signatory to and has acceded to a number of international and regional environmental treaties
(NEMC, 1994, URT, 2007). Efforts to effectively achieve ends have however been hit by
corruption, inadequate skills, low technology and generally low ability of the government to
implement strategies to combat environmental challenges. Exceptionally, corruption remains to
be such a deadlock in many socio-economic issues in Tanzania.
From a policy perspective, it is difficult to address policy issues pertaining to climate change
without looking at the wider environmental challenges. When the effects of climate change and
general environmental degradation became more severe and obvious in Tanzania, and widespread
understanding emerged that poverty alleviation strategies would not be successful without
integration with sustainable environmental management, the government of Tanzania took
decisive steps towards a comprehensive environmental policy in 1994. Several interconnected
issues forced the government to take such steps. These included, the vulnerability of some local
environments and especially loss of wildlife habitats and biodiversity, deterioration of marine and
freshwater ecosystems, widespread deforestation, land degradation, soil erosion and inadequate
land and water management at various levels, pollution, high population growth, persistent
poverty to the population and climate change. Thus a National Environmental Action Plan was
formulated in 1994 (URT, 1994). This plan later laid the foundation for National Environmental
Action Policy, (URT, 1997b, UNEP, 1998) and thus clear acknowledgement of linkages between
poverty, human health and environmental degradation.
The government of Tanzania has realized that dealing with climate change requires local, regional
and international efforts as both the causes and effects of climate change recognize no
geographical boundaries (IPPC, 2001). Tanzania has taken some steps in addressing the issue of
climate change in its widest sense. It ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1996. Generally, notable progress has been made to address
climate variability in Tanzania. Consequently, DANIDA recently gave funds to Tanzania to
develop methodology and capacity building in GHG mitigation assessment. However, Tanzania
still faces difficulty in coping with climate change due to many factors including rapid growing
populations, urbanization, and inability of the government to deliver services to its citizens. Since
the major contribution to greenhouse gas emissions in Tanzania is through land use change and
forests related sources, any mitigation of climate change including carbon sequestration should
9
target forests and land use sector (UNEP, 1999). Regrettably, forest management and other
natural management in Tanzania are faced with corruption and incompetence (Jansen, 2009).
10
3. Material and Methods
3.1. Study area
The study was conducted in Katavi Ecosystem in Mpanda District, Rukwa region (Figure 1). The
Katavi Ecosystem is part of the larger Katavi-Rukwa-Lukwati landscape encompassing an area of
about 25,000 km². Apart from Katavi National Park (KNP), Luafi, Rukwa, Lukwati and Ugalla
Game Reserves (Figure 2) are part of the landscape. Also present is a series of game controlled
areas, wildlife open areas and forest reserves, which are used for trophy hunting, beekeeping,
fishing and timber harvesting.
Fig. 1: Location of Katavi National Park
(Source: Ecology Department, Katavi National Park)
11
Fig. 2: Katavi Ecosystem
(Source: Ecology Department, Katavi National Park)
Katavi National Park is found in Mpanda District, Katavi Region, about 50 km east of Lake
Tanganyika in western Tanzania. It is located between 30’70° - 31’90° E and 6’60° - 7’40° S.
KNP was gazetted in 1974 with an area of 2253 km2 and later in 1996 extended to the current size
of 4,471 km², making it the third largest national park in Tanzania after Ruaha and Serengeti.
KNP is within a zone of dry sub-humid to semiarid lands. It is located in the tropics, which are
usually characterized by high temperatures throughout the year, little change between seasons and
high rainfall through convection when the meteorological equator passes.
The climate in the dry season, May to October, is dominated by the westerly remnants of the
Passat winds evolving from the high pressure centre in the Southern Indian Ocean. The Passat
winds reach Katavi via huge landmasses and therefore usually do not bring any rainfall. The
spatial rainfall pattern can be very patchy and events are often restricted to a small area. The rainy
season peaks in March when the sun is in nadir and the meteorological equator passes with a
slight delay. It experiences a slightly bimodal rainfall from November to April with a small low
in February (Meyer at al., 2006).
The landscape of Katavi is comprised of seasonally flooded grassland and plains interspersed
with Brachystegia (miombo) woodland on the well drained hillsides, mixed woodlands, small
lakes and swampy wetlands, riverine vegetation and waterfalls.
12
The Park expanse is mainly within the basin of the Rift Valley that tapers eastwards to the steep
escarpment, Mlele, which evolved from the parallel arm of the Eastern African Rift Valley, called
Rukwa Rift Valley.
This study focused on the northern, central and southern parts of Katavi National Park and
villages adjacent to this part of the park. The study also focused on these areas because there are
high densities of large mammals in the plains of lakes Chada, Katisunga and Katavi that are
found within the park. The other reason for focusing on these areas was the accessibility factor.
The selected villages border the park in the northern and southern areas.
The KNP is surrounded by about 40 villages; 15 in the south and 25 in the northern side. The
main ethnic groups are the Fipa, Pimbwe, Sukuma and Bende. The main economic activities
conducted in these villages include arable farming, livestock keeping, community based
conservation activities such as wildlife tourism, and some small-scale income generation
activities. A high percentage of the population depends heavily on natural resources for a living,
such as charcoal, firewood, honey, timber and pole wood, fish, bush meat, various trophies like
ivory and skins of wild animals (Meyer at al., 2006). However most of these activities are illegal
and informally conducted.
3.2. Study design and sampling design
A cross sectional design was used during data collection. According to Barley (1994) such
research design allows data to be collected at a single point in time without repetitions. The
design uses minimum time and resources.
Two stage sampling procedure was adopted. In the first stage purposive sampling of the
representative villages was carried out taking into consideration location of the village with
reference to the KNP (close) and mostly affected by large wild animals. In this stage 8 villages
out of 40 were selected. The villages selected were Ibindi, Itenka A, Sibwesa, Nkungwi and
Katuma at the northern part of KNP and Ikulwe, Kibaoni and Mirumba at the southern part. A
simple random technique was employed to select sample households within the village. The
sampling unit in this study was the household. A household here is taken as the unit of analysis
because it is where all decisions are primarily taken. The sample size was 5% of the total number
of households in each village, forming a total sample of 233 households (Table 1). Key informant
interviews were undertaken with various experts in the area, local institutions, and conservation
agencies. These are individuals who were approached for their views on the climate change issues
using a semi-structured list of questions. The type of information was obtained from the district to
village level. Some of them included extension officers, wildlife officers forest officers,
Community Development officers, elders and influential people in the village. Questions asked
were on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity especially grand mammals and community
livelihoods in the study area and the adaptation measures to these impacts.
Table 1: Villages and households interviewed
S/n
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Name of Village
Ibindi
Itenka A
Nkungwi
Sibwesa
Katuma
Ikulwe
Kibaoni
Mirumba
Total Number of Households
628
620
400
1200
544
312
567
408
13
Number of Households interviewed
31
31
20
60
27
16
28
20
Total
4679
233
3.3. Data collection
Both primary and secondary data were collected in line with the presented research questions.
Primary data was collected from household interviews, focus group discussions and key
informant interviews. Secondary data was obtained from literature and other secondary sources.
The specific data collected and the methodological approaches are described below.
Primary data collection
The techniques used to acquire primary data included questionnaire survey, focus group
discussion, key informant interviews and participant observation. Data collection was preceded
by a preliminary survey in order to be acquainted with the study area. During this pre-survey, 2-3
households from each of the identified villages were randomly selected for pre-testing the
questionnaires in order to check the reliability and validity of the questions. Where relevant some
questions were modified to fit the study.
Questionnaire administration
Semi structured questionnaire were administered to both male and female headed households.
Open and closed-ended questions were used to collect information from households.. In the openended questions respondents had to provide their own views regarding the impacts of climate
change on their livelihoods and their adaptation measures being adopted to face theses impacts.
While for close-ended questions they had to choose among the designed alternatives.
Focus group discussion and key informant interviews
Focused group in this study comprised both men and women of different age, education level and
marital status who have greater knowledge on the issue to be discussed. These key informants
included village government leaders, village elders, tour guides and village natural resource
committees. The discussions were held in each village to gather information on general village
and household characteristics, impacts of climate change and adaptive measures using a checklist
for guidance. The number of participants in each village depended on the number of various
groups/committees and hamlets in the respective villages. However some participants failed to
attend the discussions due to various reasons such as geographical distance especially for large
villages. The numbers of participants for each village visited were as follows: Ibindi-8, Itenka A6, Nkungwi- 5, Sibwesa-6, Katuma- 7, Ikulwe-5, Kibaoni-9 and Mirumba-10. A checklist was
also used to guide the discussion with KNP management, rangers, and local institutions. The local
institutions involved were: Usevya Development Society (UDESO), Tour Operators in the park,
Africare International and Mpanda District Council.
Participant observation
In this method, the researchers physically looked at what was real on the ground and made
comparisons with what had been told by respondents in focus group discussion, household and
key informant interviews.
Secondary data collection
Secondary data involved collection of information from different sources like reviewing relevant
publications, journals and books, as well as unpublished literatures as shown in the reference list.
Information was obtained in libraries and from offices including KNP office and local
government offices in villages surrounding KNP. Electronic database were also explored.
14
Secondary data is aimed at viewing what has been done in relation to the interest of the study in
order not only to supplement the study but also to identify gaps in the existing information.
3.4. Data analysis
Data collected through questionnaire were coded to facilitate data entry in the computer. Coding
involved organization of data into categories and where each response category was assigned a
numerical code as described by Babbie (1995). The statistical analysis of data was undertaken
using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) and excel spreadsheet computer packages.
Descriptive statistics such us percentages of responses, frequencies and means were obtained, and
where relevant cross-tabulations were made. Results are presented in various formats such as
tables and charts, as well as narratives.
15
4. Results and Discussion
This chapter presents findings from the study. The results are presented in five main parts. Part
one analyses the impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of communities adjacent to Katavi
National Park. In the second part we assess the impact of climate change on large mammal
population and the distribution pattern in the Katavi ecosystem. Part three examines the nonclimatic factors that influence biodiversity management and provision of ecosystem services in
the Katavi ecosystem. Part four assesses the community adaptive and/or coping strategies to the
climate change impacts. Finally, part five addresses the adaptive measures of large mammals.
The rainfall in the area is unimodal, with a wet season in December-June and a dry season during
the rest of the year. Climatic data collected at Katavi National Park headquarters in Sitalike for
the years 1997-2010 indicates that during that period average annual rainfall was 951.5mm per
year (Table 2).
Table 2: Annual rainfall and average temperature at Katavi National Park HQ in Sitalike, 19972010
Hydrological
years
1997/1998
Total annual rainfall
(mm)
Maximum Temperature
(°C)
Minimum Temperature
(°C)
1220.9
32.5
17.4
32.7
32.3
32.8
33.2
33.8
33
33.3
31
31
29.37
29.64
30.56
32
15.8
16.1
16.5
16.2
15.2
16.6
15.7
17
17.4
17.51
16.37
17.47
17
1998/1999
839.5
1999/2000
805.9
2000/2001
853.1
2001/2002
1011.6
2002/2003
895.2
2003/2004
855.2
2004/2005
925.9
2005/2006
938
2006/2007
804.3
2007/2008
1221
2008/2009
983.1
2009/2010
1016
Average
951.5
(Source: Ecology Department KNP)
The rainfall records presented in Table 2 indicate further that there was a significant interannual
variability. For instance there was a considerable decrease in amounts of annual rainfall from
about 1221mm in 1997/1998 to 853mm by the year of 2000/2001. This was followed by
fluctuations in the amounts of rainfall as expressed by the period between 2001 and 2007. In the
year 2007/2008 the area experienced heavy rainfall of 1221mm but relatively low in 2009 and
increased at small amount in 2010 (Table 2). Apart from the inter-annual variability, about eight
out of the thirteen seasons covered by the available data had below average rainfall (Figure 3) and
temperatures (Figure 4). The effect of low rainfall is somehow counterbalanced by the low
temperatures. The similarity in the rainfall amounts between 1997/1998 and 2007/2008 seem to
suggest a ten-year cycle of heavy rainfall for the area, however this is not a complete
confirmation as the time period of thirteen years is too short to describe a cycle of rainfall for
climate change. Enough long term data in this area was lacking.
16
250
200
150
100
50
10
/2
0
09
09
20
08
/2
0
08
20
07
/2
0
07
20
20
06
/2
0
06
/2
0
05
20
05
/2
0
04
04
20
03
/2
0
03
20
20
02
/2
0
02
/2
0
01
20
01
/2
0
00
00
20
99
/2
0
99
98
/1
9
19
-100
19
97
/1
9
-50
98
0
19
Deviation from the mean rainfall (mm)
300
-150
-200
Season
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
19
97
/1
99
8
19
98
/1
99
9
19
99
/2
00
0
20
00
/2
00
1
20
01
/2
00
2
20
02
/2
00
3
20
03
/2
00
4
20
04
/2
00
5
20
05
/2
00
6
20
06
/2
00
7
20
07
/2
00
8
20
08
/2
00
9
20
09
/2
01
0
Deviation from mean Min Temp (°C)
Fig. 3: Anomalies (mm) from mean rainfall at Katavi National Park, 1997-2010
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Season
Fig. 4: Anomalies from mean minimum temperature at Katavi National Park 1997 - 2010
4.1. Impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of communities adjacent to Katavi
National Park
Main economic activities
Agricultural activities are the main source of livelihood to an overwhelming majority of
communities living in the northern and southern parts of Katavi National Park, and are the main
17
source of their economy (Figure 5). This sector employs and supports 93% of the mentioned
community. Small-scale and subsistence farming are predominant. Crops cultivated include rice,
maize, tobacco, banana, potatoes, cassava, beans and groundnuts. Agricultural production also
involves livestock keeping, where animals such as cattle, goat, pigs, and chickens are
predominantly kept. Involvement in livestock-related activities was reported by 28% of the
respondent households. The diversity of crops and types of livestock kept indicates the richness
of biodiversity in the agro-ecosystem of the Katavi ecosystem.
Regarding changes of agricultural activities overtime, 96% of the respondents expressed that
there have been changes in the types and magnitude at which these activities are implemented
(Table 3). Out of interviewed correspondents, 58% stated that the productivity and performance
have increased for most agriculture activities, and most of these communities are those who are
now provided by the government with fertilizers, improved seeds and good tools for agriculture.
Fig. 5: Major economic activities undertaken by the studied community
Table 3: Locally perceived changes in agricultural activities
Changes in economic activities
Yes
Respondent %
96
No
4
Changes trend
Increasing
58
Decreasing
38
No changes
4
18
For how long
>One year
65.6
One year
33.6
2-10 months
0.8
With help from agricultural officers, some have shifted to crops like cassava that can withstand
drought and some have extended the size of cultivated farms. These are among the strategies that
local communities are using to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Although they are also
facing the same problems of climatic variability (shift of rain patterns and droughts) as other
villages, participants in the studied villages indicated to have been able to improve agricultural
production. They reported that the overall production has increased by 5-20%. One respondent
remarked, for instance, that:
“We are forced to increase the size of farms so as to increase the production in order to meet
the demand of our expanding family, otherwise it is impossible to increase productivity just
on the same farm due to this change of rainfall pattern and prolonged droughts”.
Most of the respondents who reported increasing trends over time considered agricultural
products only. To this group, agricultural production was reported to have improved due to (i)
improved techniques such as the use of ox- or tractor drawn ploughs; (ii) Use of agricultural
inputs such as fertilizers, and improved seeds; (iii) Expert training on modern agricultural seeds
and farming techniques; and (iv) Growing market for agricultural crops such as maize.
A considerable proportion (38%) stated that agricultural productivity has decreased over the past
few years, by about 30-40%. This was attributed to getting minimum support from the
government in terms of fertilizers, agricultural tools and inadequate technical support from
agricultural officers. These claims by the respondents indicate that provision of such services by
the government and/or its agencies is inadequate or are not equally accessible to all villagers in
the study areas. Climatic variability was also considered to have caused them to get small
amounts of crops. Consequently, the decreased production was reported to have made their lives
even harder as they are failing to meet their daily livelihood needs compared to the past. This has
negative effect to their efforts of ensuring quality life, which is the wish of all people in the
society.
Table 3 shows further that 65.6% of respondent have noticed negative changes in agricultural
productivity due to climate variability and change for more than one year, whereas 34.4% of the
respondents have noticed changes in less than one year. The variations in the responses to since
when changes were observed may indicate the levels of knowledge of changing conditions and
adaptive capacities of respective respondent households. Since agriculture is the main economic
engine for the community to meet their livelihoods needs, then once it is negatively affected other
activities are also likely going to be affected.
A few respondents (4%) reported to have not seen any significant change in terms of productivity
or performance of the various agricultural activities (Table 3). This could be explained by
existence of such people in the study area for too short a period to recognize any significant
changes, or inadequate awareness of the influence of climate change on the local livelihoods.
19
Figure 5 also presents other economic activities undertaken by the communities adjacent to the
KNP, the major ones being fishing, gold mining, and small business (such as selling local beer,
livestock and other agricultural products, shops, restaurants). Fishing seems to support very few
members of the community as was reported by only about 2% of respondents. Gold mining was
another activity that seemed to be undertaken by few people in the studied community, where
only 4% of respondents reported to be engaged is such activities, and was only practiced in one
village.
Small business was reported to be more focused on buying and selling agricultural products
(crops and livestock) as reported by 18 percent of the respondent households. Other small
businesses include making and selling of local beer, shops and restaurants. These livelihood
activities are practiced by households in the community on a combined effect approach (i.e. one
household can perform agriculture activities - crops and livestock, while at the same time doing
some small-scale businesses.
Climate change and variability impacts on local livelihoods
Interviewed households expressed that all of the livelihoods activities especially agriculture
which most of the community member depend on, are heavily dependent on climate. For instance,
the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall and other climatic factors such as temperature
dominant during the growing seasons have important influence on crop yields and pastures for
livestock hence affecting the local welfare. It was reported by the respondents in this study that
rainfall variability, such as very heavy rainfall storms at once, delay of rainy season (e.g. the
instead of late October in the past to early December currently), prolonged dry seasons within the
rainy season and early ending of rainy season were the major causes of decreased agricultural
productivity. These conditions are all linked to climatic factors as a result of climate change
(Lovejoy and Hannah, 2005).
The interviews conducted with farmers, village leaders, livestock keepers and key informants
revealed that the below average amounts of rainfall that were received in different seasons
contributed to several problems in studied villages, including early season drying of the rivers.
Water scarcity in the park from 2005 onward could be attributed to mismanagement of Katuma
River since this period received comparatively heavy rains and low temperatures. However, such
situation could be explained by the local concern that over the last few decades much of the rains
are received in heavy storms with poor seasonal distribution. Such pattern makes water abundant
during the periods with the heavy storms and less so in other periods, creating the observed
scarcity.
According to Elisa at al. (2011) early drying of Katuma River which is used for rice irrigation,
leads to villagers downstream south of KNP to depend on few and over-utilized water wells, thus
using a great amount of time and energy to gather water for domestic purposes. Livestock that
used to graze around these villages have faced almost the same negative effects of water scarcity.
Similarly wildlife from the park have experienced the lack of water and many have died while
others are now moving to some of the villages bordering the Park. Also, occasionally the
livestock invades and degrades the protected areas where pastures and water still remain. This has
often led to conflicts between farmers, pastoralists and park staff (Elisa at al., 2011).
Although the impacts of climate change in the area are real, the problems of water availability are
exacerbated by anthropogenic factors especially through improper rice irrigation farming in
upstream Katuma river basin, deforestation for tobacco farming and increasing livestock pressure
in this area. All these have negative impacts on community livelihood by increasing economic
crisis, food insecurity, production cost and water shortage, particularly for downstream users. If
20
the situation keeps going in this way, the community livelihoods will be affected even more and
creating more poverty and conflicts escalation is likely. The following are climatic and nonclimatic stressors, which can synergistically impact biodiversity, goods and services and local
livelihoods/subsistence:
Climatic stressors
 Increased rainfall variability and below average rainfall contributing to Drying up of the
Rivers; decrease in water flow can increase pollution loads.
Non-climatic stressors
 Loss of ecological connectivity within the ecosystem, which is a result of human
activities. Hence resulted into severe human– wildlife conflict.
 Pollution
– Air-borne contaminants, nitrogen deposition, acid rain etc.
 Agriculture
– Ground water poisoning from chemical use, erosion (thin soils) from physical
disturbance, extension of alpine flora into lowlands
– increased water abstraction for rice irrigation upstream Katuma River
 Forestry (exotic species)
– run-off and drainage pattern altered
- Natural successional patterns affected, habitat area decreases (for spp that depend
on old-growth), and activities increase the extent of habitats.
 Poaching
4.2. Impact of climate change on large mammals population and distribution
pattern in Katavi National Park
Many of the impacts of a changing climate are likely to be species-specific and related to
particular ecological aspects of individual taxa, necessitating a species-based management
approach. However, some impacts will be important across all, or some, species groups (Berger,
2004). By altering wildlife distribution patterns, climate change is likely to bring some species
into conflict with human activities, particularly amongst migratory species, which use a network
of sites, and may constrain their ability to adapt to changes. Conversely, anthropogenic factors are
likely to exacerbate the impacts of climate change on wildlife, e.g. increased water abstraction for
rice irrigation upstream Katuma River has already contributed significantly to water shortage for
wild animals in Katavi National Park (Elisa at al., 2011). The surveys conducted in the villages,
park officials and local institutions in southern and northern parts of Katavi National Park
revealed the following impacts of climate change on the large mammals’ population.
Water related impacts
During the dry season of 2010 the research team observed large mammals in Katavi National
Park especially hippopotamus, crocodiles, buffalos and elephants crowded in few remaining
water ponds along Katuma River (see Figure 6). For instance, in a total count of hippopotamus a
large school of hippopotamus of about 880 was observed in a small Sitalike pool of about 600m2
in October (Elisa, personal communication). Water shortage for the large mammals especially in
the years with low rainfall is one of the main challenges facing the management of the Katavi
National Park. For instance, serious lack of surface water in dry seasons of 2003/2004 to
2005/2006 led to considerable hippopotamus and buffalo mortalities (Mayer et al., 2006). The
places naturally used to hold water during the dry season no longer hold water long into the dry
season. Katuma River, for instance, dried out completely in September 2004 and 2005 (Mayer et
al., 2006) and caused considerable stress especially to water dependent animals.
21
Fig. 6: Hippopotamus congregating in small water pools due to water shortage in the river
system
(Source: Ecology Department KNP)
Water dependent animals such as hippopotamus, crocodiles suffer the most following the decline
of water in the ecosystem. Buffaloes among other animals are also seriously affected. This was
evidenced in their very poor physical conditions; thin and inactive due to shortage of water and
pasture. Suffering from lack of water, wildlife physiological functions are impaired and they
become easy target to poachers and predators. The worst scenario is when they are forced to
move into village areas searching for water where they further expose themselves to more
poaching. Hippopotamus are forced to live in unusually dry sand, feeding on it, which may
possibly aggravate mortalities. Other wildlife affected by water shortages include, fish, amphibian,
waterfowl and waterbucks. While the partially water dependent animals concentrate on the few
water points, affecting the environment through overgrazing, erosion, siltation and pollution,
many aquatic animals die as they cannot escape these hypoxia water points full of algae bloom
due to urination and defecation. In this way some aquatic species might be extinct as a result of
changing climate as observed in Katavi. Frequent churning of water by animals also leads to poor
water quality (Mtahiko et al., 2006).
Competition for resources is also made high and has often led to fighting and wound infliction,
which sometimes results in death. During dry season in 2010, for instance, territorial
hippopotamus bulls fighting at Sitalike hippo pool led to four deaths. (Mtahiko et al., 2006). In
the long run, population of water dependent species such as hippopotamus, buffaloes and
crocodiles may be highly affected as their reproduction and growth is severely impaired by this
shortage of water. Wetlands such as Lakes Katavi and Chada, which harbor high wildlife
densities in dry seasons are also shrinking as a result of less water flowing into them and
increasing siltation.
22
Besides the deaths of hippopotamus on dry riverbeds, there are other animals that seem to be
affected by the lack of water especially water-dependent animals, namely the buffaloes and
crocodiles. It has been reported in the recent past that the causes of such deaths are either directly
or indirectly related to lack of water affecting mostly water dependent animals. Table 5 presents
the types of animals that were reported dead in various seasons between 2004 and 2009.
Table 4: Counts of dead animals along the Katuma River
Season
Year
Animal species reported
2004
Hippopotamus, elephants, buffaloes
2005
Hippopotamus , elephants, buffaloes, giraffes
2006
2007
Wet
1
0
Dry
15
9
Hippo, elands
0
7
Hippopotamus, zebra, elands and giraffe
2
7
4
3
7
11
2008 Hippopotamus, buffaloes
2009 Hippopotamus, elephants, zebras
(Source: Ecology Department KNP, 2010)
It is evident from Table 4 that many of the reported animal deaths take place during the dry
season, which confirms the association of these deaths with water availability. Thus, with
changing climate and associated decrease in water availability due to reduced amounts and
altered seasonal distribution of rainfall, the existing water related problems in KNP and other
parks are likely to be compounded. Waterborne diseases (e.g. Typhoid) were reported by the
KNP management to have been among the factors causing death of many animals in the park. In
other parks, for instance, in Ruaha National park, congestion of animals at few water points has
been reported to facilitate the spread of waterborne as well as other contagious diseases like
anthrax (cf. Kangalawe, 2010), which are also shared with domestic animals.
Incidences of human-wildlife conflicts and suggested solutions
It was reported by the park officials and villagers during the village visits that hippopotamus and
other animals from the park do frequently move into neighboring villages in dry seasons,
especially in years with low rainfall, such as 2004 - 2006. While wandering in the villages, the
hippopotamus and other park animals are poached or cause serious conflicts with people when
they destroy their crops. The occurrence of these incidences between years is, however, appearing
to be random, since no uniform pattern can be discerned (Figure 7).
Regardless of the randomness, such occurrences could have been avoided if there were enough
pastures and water in and around the Park. Thus shortage of water resulting from changing
climate may exacerbate such human-wildlife conflicts thereby impacting on the local biodiversity
as well as community livelihoods.
23
Incidences of crop damage by hippos
19
20
18
16
14
14
12
10
10
9
7
8
6
4
2
0
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Year
Fig. 7: Incidences of crop damage by hippopotamus in villages adjacent to KNP.
(Source: Ecology Department KNP, 2010)
The types of human-wildlife conflicts reported in the study villages are presented in Table 5.
Human-wildlife conflicts were reported by the majority (93%) of the respondents in the studied
villages, where it was claimed that human-wildlife conflicts are a common occurrence and
particularly higher during the wet seasons. The main reason for these conflicts was reported to be
crop raiding in wet seasons when crops are growing in the farms near the park. This was a
concern by 62.5% of respondents. These conflicts were reported to be more prominent in farms
close to the park partly due to increasing land use change involving conversion of buffer zones to
farms and settlements. About 25% of respondents from local community reported that wild
animals mainly move from the park into the villages in dry seasons searching for water. Such
human-wildlife conflicts could be low if park boundaries and buffer zones were respected by
communities surrounding the park.
Table 2: Types of human-wildlife conflicts in the study villages
Type of conflict
Feeding on crops in wet season
Looking for water sources in dry season
Percent of respondent
62.5
25.0
Preying on livestock
12.5
The animals commonly involved in these conflicts are hippopotamus, elephants and buffaloes.
Other animals involved and percentage of respondents reporting them are presented in Figure 8.
The elephant was mentioned to be the number one problem animal especially during the wet
seasons, as reported by 25% of respondents. Wet seasons were mentioned to be the periods with
intense high human-wildlife conflicts. However it was noted in the focus group discussion that
the conflicts in dry seasons are now declining (see Table 6) following relatively good rains in the
past three years as shown earlier in Figure 7. Wet season human-wildlife conflicts are also likely
to rise due to ongoing encroachment of buffer zones and wildlife corridors in many parts
surrounding KNP.
24
Fig. 8: Animals causing conflicts with surrounding communities
Table 3: Trend of human-wildlife conflicts
Trend of those conflicts
Season
Percent of Respondent
Increasing
Wet
61
Decreasing
Dry
23
No changes
Dry/Wet
5
I don’t know
Dry/Wet
11
Seven percent of the respondents reported that there were no conflicts with wildlife. These could
perhaps be those respondents living somewhat far from the park buffer zone to the extent that
they are not much affected by wildlife. The response could have been given in fear of potential
consequences (e.g. fear of being moved away from the area) if they mentioned human-wildlife
conflicts.
Several measures were suggested by respondents as solutions to experienced human-wildlife
conflicts. They include, in order of decreasing priority: (1) There should be a close collaboration
between villagers and wildlife department; (2) Park rangers should stay near the villages; (3) Park
management should protect their animals; (4) Game rangers should be ready to assist in times of
trouble; (5) Fencing the park area; (6) Stop cultivating near the park; and (7) Building patrol
camp at each buffer zones.
Most of these suggested measures are feasible and possibly within the reach of the communities
and the park management. Effective implementation of the suggested solutions would need close
collaboration between villagers and relevant wildlife management departments as also suggested
by the Wildlife Policy on the need to promote involvement of local communities in the
conservation and minimize human-wildlife conflicts wherever they occur (MNRT, 1998).
Fencing of protected areas is currently not in the wildlife policy of Tanzania, hence may not be
feasible in the foreseeable future. Among the key concerns regarding fencing is that this is an
expensive undertaking and may restrict the free movement of wild animals, which may limit the
ecological range of various species and thereby affecting biodiversity.
25
4.3. Non-climatic factors influencing biodiversity management and provision of
ecosystem services in the Katavi ecosystem
Non-climatic factors operate in synergy with the impacts of climate change. In essence nonclimatic factors compound and exacerbate impacts of climate change. The Katavi ecosystem is
affected by several non-climatic factors, including a rapid population growth mainly attributed to
immigration of farmers and livestock keepers. Mismanagement of water resources in farming
environments, deforestation for extension of farms, settlement and livestock keeping are other
non-climatic factors impacting on the Katavi ecosystem.
In this ecosystem there is increasing crop production associated with expansion of cultivated
lands. In so doing many forested areas are being converted into farmlands and settlements which
result into ecosystem fragmentation and consequently cause the loss of biodiversity. It was
evident during field observations that cultivation (of rice, tobacco and maize) extended in the
catchments of Katuma River which is a key source of water for wildlife in Katavi ecosystem and
for Lake Rukwa. Cultivation in this area is mainly practiced in shifting style especially for
tobacco (see Figure 9). Such practices reduce the carbon sinks and contribute to green house
emission, and diminish the capacity of the ecosystem to sequester more carbon. Subsequently this
contributes to global warming. The consequence is serious environmental destruction.
Fig. 9: Tobacco cultivation in Katuma River catchment forest
Irrigation farming is possibly the most serious threat to Katuma River due to too many river dams
and weirs which are found in the upstream of Katuma River. Communities in the upstream areas
of Katuma River basin conduct irrigation rice farming (Figure 10) in wet season and irrigating
crops like maize, beans and vegetables in the dry seasons. Almost all the river water is diverted
into the farms leading to less water to flow into the wetlands in downstream areas like in the park.
Dry season irrigation blocks most of the water and during the study we observed that in Katuma
River the water flow was only about 0.2m3/s at the upstream village of Katuma, and almost none
downstream into the Katavi National Park. Excess water that is diverted for irrigation is rarely
returned back into the river system. We also observed that cultivation was undertaken up to the
riverbank without leaving any river reserve, hence leading to soil erosion, high siltation of river
26
courses and destruction of riverine vegetation. According to Elisa at al. (2011) water abstraction
for rice irrigation in Katuma River is the major cause for the drying of the river in the stretches
traversing the Park and declining water levels in Lake Rukwa. This situation becomes even worse
in years of low rainfall.
Fig. 10: Weir for water abstraction for irrigation farming from Katuma River, north of KNP.
Also there is a growing number of livestock as livestock keepers continue to migrate from other
regions into this area. This was reported by 87% of the respondents. Increase in livestock number
in this ecosystem which result into overgrazing is yet another threat to local biodiversity and
hence the ecosystem goods and services that they provide to communities. Due to pasture scarcity,
the livestock grazing in the protected areas is happening which increase the human-wildlife
conflict and diseases transmission to wild and domesticated animals. We observed huge groups of
cattle (Figure 11) grazing in the catchment forests. The management of Katavi National Park
reported livestock intrusion in the Katavi ecosystem to be a serious challenge in that entire
ecosystem. Livestock not only graze in the park but also in the catchment forests. One of the
consequences of grazing animals has been siltation of rivers due to trampling of soils at river
banks.
27
Fig. 11: Herd of cattle drinking water from Katuma River upstream areas
4.4. Community livelihood adaptive and coping strategies to climate change impacts
Many communities in the world have historically adapted to impacts of changing climate.
Communities in the Katavi ecosystem also have various adaptive strategies, including the
following.
(i) Increasing land for agriculture. This strategy was reported to aim at increasing overall
production to compensate for the lost productivity in the traditionally small farms in case
of unfavorable climatic condition.
(ii) Improved farming technologies, such as use of improved seeds, fast growing seeds and
agricultural implements like ploughs. This is aimed at improving the agricultural
productivity even when expansion of farmland becomes not feasible. For instance, by
planting of improved seeds it is possible to harvest more from a unit area, whereas fast
maturing varieties ensure that some harvest is attained even within short duration of
rainfall. Achievement of such aims is facilitated by timeliness in farm operations, which
can be achieved through mechanization, involving the use of ploughs.
(iii) Cultivation of drought tolerant crops such as cassava is yet another adaptation strategy
mentioned by communities in the Katavi ecosystem. In a situation with unreliable rainfall,
growing of drought tolerant crops enhances the food security situation of the area.
(iv) Early planting of crops was also mentioned to be an important adaptation strategy.
Timeliness in planting ensures that the crop plants optimize the use of early rains.
(v) Regarding shortage of water, it was pointed that using village wells could alleviate the
problem as expressed by 37% of respondents. However, to make such an adaptation
strategy sustainable there is need to dig deep wells that could provide sufficient volumes
of water to all community members and throughout the year.
28
(vi) Occasionally small wells are dug near the river (23%) or sometimes holes in gold mines
are used as water reservoir. While the former strategy is fairly useful, the latter may have
health hazards associated with poisoning from the chemicals used in gold processing.
(vii) Planting of trees for firewood was mentioned as another aspect of adaptation to climate
change, as reported by 13% of the respondents. This was associated with the knowledge
of deforestation contributing to global warming and hence climate change.
About 20% expressed that they were not aware of adaptive measures and consequently they did
not adapt. Mentioning that they were unaware of adaptive measures suggests that such adaptation
strategies to climate change are not particularly organized and so not equally perceived by all as
being components of adaptation. In practice, however, all communities do undertake certain
adaptation measures though they may be spontaneous.
4.5. Adaptations by large mammals to climate change impacts
As reported by park officials, large mammals such as elephants seem to suffer less because they
can dig their own water on dry sand rivers. On the other hand elephants have been moving to
distant places with permanent water like in the southeastern parts of the Katavi National Park or
excavating water holes in areas of underground natural springs. Other animals also take
advantage of the water holes dug by elephants. In this way elephants serve as a key stone species
by improving habitats through locating water for other animals. This situation has been observed
in central parts of Katavi ecosystem, especially in Katisunga plains and Kahama areas within the
KNP. Also according to recent preliminary surveys, elephants appeared to migrate in the
neighboring protected areas (e.g. Luafi game reserve) and unprotected areas in searching for
foods and water.
During our study, which was undertaken in the dry season, we observed large mammals like
hippopotamus and buffalos concentrating in the central and northern parts of the park where food
and water remain for a long time during the dry season. These areas are the flood plains of Lake
Katavi (located in the northern part of the park), Chada and Paradise (in the central parts of the
park). It was recently reported by the KNP management that this has been the case in each dry
season period. These herds aggregate in these areas mainly because of little and persisting muddy
pools. These places are important wetlands, supplied with water mainly from Katuma River, and
they serve as dry season refuge areas for local population of large mammals. For instance the
number of individuals in one herd of buffaloes ranges from 600 to 1000 animals.
The tendency for high densities of large mammals especially buffalos to aggregate in these plains
of Katavi during dry seasons is a common phenomenon (Caro, 1999), because most other parts of
the park remain dry during this period of the year. Hippopotamus of Katavi might also have
developed a more dryness tolerant behavior, as they are frequently found out of water grazing
during the day (Elisa, personal communication, 2010). Sometimes in the past these hippopotamus
were found aggregating and feeding on dry sands (Meyer at al., 2006). Crocodiles on the other
side, excavate and live in caves in the riverbanks (Figure 12), and also spend most of the daytime
hiding under tree shades along the dry river especially during dry season.
Hippopotamus and buffalos of Katavi ecosystem synchronize calving with the onset of rains.
During the study we observed a number of young calves that were born during the onset of
previous rainy season. Such synchrony guarantees that the calves are born at a time when water
and pastures are in plenty to ensure their survival.
29
Fig. 12: Crocodiles hiding in a small hole dug on the edge of the dry river
(Source: Ecology Department KNP)
30
5. Conclusion and Recommendations
5.1. Conclusion
This study on impacts of climate change on biodiversity and community livelihoods in Katavi
ecosystem has shown that climate change and variability are both affecting the large mammals
and community livelihood in the Katavi ecosystem. In recent years the amount and distribution of
rainfall have become more unpredictable, causing significant impacts on all production sectors,
including biodiversity conservation. Signs such as late rains, little rains, floods and unpredictable
rainfall distribution, and high temperature seem to have been common in the target community.
The agricultural sector (crops and livestock), which is the main source of food and income for the
majority of local people in the area appears to have improved considerably in the recent years, but
mainly through increase in the area under cultivation and immigration of livestock. This may
probably lead to a tendency to overlook the real impacts of climate change on productivity. While
the total production per household may be increasing due to farm expansion, agricultural
productivity is highly affected by climate change and variability. Local communities reported
declining water flows in rivers and other water sources associated with both climate change and
abstraction for irrigation agriculture. Thus, it may be difficult to separate climatic impacts from
those of non-climatic stressors. However, the fact that local communities have noted climate
change-related problems indicates the presence of some awareness of climate change concerns.
The impacts of changing climate on large mammals in the Katavi ecosystem are almost certain,
and there are already reported deaths of animals resulting from lack of water and waterborne
diseases within the Katavi National Park. The large mammals in Katavi Ecosystem show different
adaptation strategies to climate change and variability, including seasonal migration to locations
with better opportunities. Community members use various ways to adapt to the impacts of
changing climate in their daily activities. Extension of farmed area, planting drought tolerant
crops, digging wells, and using improved agricultural technologies are among the adaptive
strategies employed. While these adaptation strategies seem helpful, no one is sure whether they
may be able to persist in the long-term. Thus deliberate and concerted efforts are needed to ensure
that sustainability concerns are addressed in biodiversity conservation in a changing climate.
Findings from this study have also demonstrated that climate change impacts are significantly
exacerbated by non-climatic factors as has been the case of Katavi ecosystem. Thus to effectively
reduce climate change impacts, firm and joint efforts should be taken to also address non-climatic
stressors which exacerbate the actual impacts of climate changes.
5.2. Recommendations
Given the facts that impacts of climate change on biodiversity and community livelihoods in
Katavi ecosystem are compounded by other non-climate stressors, it is recommended that there
should be collaborative efforts between villagers and wildlife department in addressing humanwildlife conflicts so as to minimize potential negative impacts on local biodiversity. The
Government should also facilitate sustainable irrigation farming so that water abstraction from
rivers flowing through the Katavi ecosystems allows for environmental flows and other
downstream water users. Further, stopping or discouraging cultivation near the park and in the
catchment forest would minimize potential impacts on both the community livelihoods and the
wild animals. Finally more detailed studies would be needed to establish impacts of climate
change on all wild animals and streamline adaptation measures that address the entire wildlife
sector.
31
6.
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Acknowledgement
This report is a product of a study undertaken as part of the “Capacity Building for Adaptation: Education
and Training on Climate Change and Biodiversity for the Albertine Rift Region”, held at the Institute of
Resource Assessment, University of Dare es Salaam, Tanzania. This Education and training program was
implemented in collaboration between the Institute of Resource Assessment / Pan African START
Secretariat and the International START Secretariat. The participants in this externship appreciated the
support provided by these institutions. The program was funded by the John D. and Catherine T.
MacArthur Foundation through a grant to the START International Inc. We are grateful for this financial
support.
Our deepest gratitude is extended to our supervisor Dr. Richard Kangalawe for his time, enthusiasm,
endless advice, critical comments, encouragement and guidance through every stage of our externship,
from the formulation of research proposal to fieldwork and report writing. Thank you very much!
This externship was undertaken in the Katavi Ecosystem. We are grateful to the management of the Katavi
National Park for providing both useful information about this ecosystem and logistical support. We are
also much thankful to the communities in the villages involved in this study, and to all people who in
various ways made this study a success.
35