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1 THE CHALLENGE Planetary Stability for Eugene City Club May 2, 2014 Tom Bowerman PolicyInteractive Research www.policyinteractive.org 2 Some findings draw from Oregon Values & Beliefs Project -198 Questions using three surveys spaced 2 weeks apart -Diverse range of topics: Economy, Education, Healthcare, Environment, Public Safety, Transportation, etc. This presentation of findings, observations and conclusions reflects the judgment of this presenter and not necessarily the views of the sponsoring organizations. 3 IS GLOBAL WARMING A HOAX? 4 HERE ARE SOME STATEMENTS PEOPLE MAKE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE. INDICATE YOUR LEVEL OF AGREEMENT OR DISAGREEMENT FOREACH STATEMENT. 75% Climate change is occurring from human causes like burning fossil fuels. 53% 24% 41% Climate change is very unsettled in scientific evidence. 10% 30% 20% 9% 7% 0% 9% 13% 16% Strongly Agree 7% 8% 5% 71% Climate change is occurring and in the long term the impacts will probably be catastrophic. Climate change from human causes is a hoax and not occurring. 15% 9% 8% 42% 78% 9% 6% 20% Lean toward Agree 15% 63% 40% Undecided Eugene Random Sample N=300 Source: DHM Research, PI Research, November 2011 60% Lean toward Disagree 80% 100% Strongly Disagree 5 World-view Items Using A/B Forced-choice Style: Which statement do you agree with more even if neither represents your view exactly? (Ordering randomized & A/B item rotates) 6 Which statement comes closest to your view? 80% Statement A: Statement B: Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply If climate change becomes a problem we can deal with it later S1-Q32 n=2971 72% 60% 40% 21% 20% 7% 0% Statement A Statement B Don’t know 7 S1-Q32 Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate) 80% Statement A: Statement B: Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply. If climate change becomes a problem, we can deal with it later. 76% 72% 72% 72% 62% 64% 60% 40% 30% 28% 21% 20% 7% 21% 20% 18% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 0% Total Metro W. Valley Central Eastern Southern 8 Which statement comes closest to your view? Statement A: Statement B: We should invest more in roads for cars We should invest more in public transit S1-Q28 n=2971 Tone Key: Light: Lean towards Dark: Feel strongly 80% 60% 40% 53% 38% 20% 8% 0% Statement A Statement B Don’t know 9 S1-Q27 Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate) Statement A: Statement B: We should invest more in roads for cars We should invest more in public transit 80% 60% 40% 53% 38% 55% 39% 37% 20% 8% 53% 8% 9% 48% 45% 7% 53% 46% 45% 38% 9% 8% 0% Total Metro W. Valley Central Eastern Southern 10 11 S2-17 Economic growth will be more important than addressing climate change Desirability Probability 26% Very likely Somewhat likely Neutral Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Don’t know 59% Somewhat desirable 17% 14% Neutral 17% 13% Somewhat undesirable 33% 19% 9% 22% 5% Don’t know 20% 40% 37% 18% 40% Strongly undesirable 5% 0% 20% Strongly desirable 0% 20% 40% S3-Q46 12 (How desirable or undesirable?) There should be stronger government policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 29% Strongly desirable 57% 28% Somewhat desirable 19% Neutral 10% Somewhat undesirable 22% 12% Strongly undesirable 3% Don’t know 0% 20% 40% 13 (How desirable or undesirable; with $$ and $ cost implications) S3-Q48 A carbon emission tax established to discourage greenhouse gas emissions and used to invest in green jobs and technologies 21% Strongly desirable $$ 50% 29% Somewhat desirable $ 20% Neutral 10% Somewhat undesirable 26% 16% Strongly undesirable 3% Don’t know 0% 10% 20% 30% 14 S3-47 (How much Agree – Disagree with:) Science and human ingenuity will solve climate change with little need to change our way of life Strongly Disgree 36% Somewhat Disgree 25% Neutral 61% 16% Somewhat Agree Strongly Agree 6% Don’t know 13% 19% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 15 Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology IPAT Our country would be a better place if we all consumed less. 16 PI – Oregon Random Dial March 2008 n=400 moe 4.7% 60 51 50 40 36 30 20 10 6 3 0 Strong Agree Agree Disagree Strong Disagree 17 Political Party Ideology Comparison Compare - Global Warming : Consume less PI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (% Combined Agreement of Sector) 90 80 76 80 70 64 60 50 40 34 30 20 10 0 Global Warming Concern Republican n=128 'Our Country Better Consume Less' Democrat n=228 18 Cultural Ideology Comparison Christian Conservative & Environmentalist Compare Global Warming / Consume less PI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (expressed as % Agreement of Sector) 90 81 77 80 67 70 60 50 45 40 30 20 10 0 Global Warming Concern Ch. Conservative n=126 'Our Country Better Consume Less' Environmental n=236 19 With roughly two-thirds of consumers saying they care, why is ethical consumption so minimal and so rarely transformative? - Dana O’Rourke, book review of Market for Virtue by David Vogle 20 ATTITUDE A X BEHAVIOR B 21 ATTITUDE A X BEHAVIOR B 22 ATTITUDE A X BEHAVIOR B 23 DISSONANCE •Anxiety •Grief •Avoidance •Denial ATTITUDE A X CONSTRAINTS •Habits •Norms (conformity) •Self identity •Ideology (social) •Desires •Physical constraints BEHAVIOR B 24 “It is naive to ask consumers to voluntarily downscale, and give up their desires without offering them alternative dreams.” Tim Jackson, Sustainable Development Commission, U.K. 24 24 One Measure of “hopes and dreams”: Life Satisfaction All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays, with 1 being not satisfied at all and 10 being completely satisfied? 26 25 Income/Emissions/Life Satisfaction Nation & Oregon Compared (normalized) Income ($US) 17.5(t) Emissions (ton/capita) Life Satisfaction Index 7.5 7.4 9.7(t) USA Oregon Income: Per Capita/Yr. World Bank 2013 estimate (Atlas Method) Emissions: Tons CO2/capita EPA 2013 estimate Life Satisfaction Index Gallup World Survey 2008 (Source: Happiness Foundation) PI 2008 26 Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared Metric Tons CO2 / Capita 25 20 15 10 17.5 M Tons/ capita 7.7 M Tons/ capita 5 0 USA China 2–5 M Tons/ capita Est. Sustainable Range Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster) Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on file Import – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries 28 Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared – Consumption Based Metric Tons CO2 / Capita 20 15 10 19.7 t with imports 5 5.2 t w.o exports 0 USA China 2–5 M Tons/ capita Est. Sustainable Range Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster) Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on file Import – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries Income ($US) 5.5(t) 7.2(t) Oregon 1.6(t) $8,820 USA 7.9 $36900 7.5 9.7 (t) 7.4 7.8 $56120 8.5 $44447 17.5(t) Income/Emissions/Life Satisfaction Four Nations & Oregon Compared $52,610 29 Costa Rica Emissions (ton/capita) New Zealand Sweden Life Satisfaction Index Income: Per Capita World Bank 2013estimate (Atlas Method), Oregon: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Emissions: Tons CO2/capita 2012 World Bank & EPA for Oregon Life Satisfaction:: Life Satisfaction Index Gallup World Survey 2008 (Source: Happiness Foundation); Oregon PI Dec 09 29 USA NOW COSTA RICA NOW 29 Thinking it through: • Push for Policy • Live simply by being thoughtful, using less Less money (correlation money = emissions) Less house Less travel (air travel emits carbon) • Know your emissions: “Oregon Carbon Calculator” • Think Globally, act locally World citizenship Community self reliance (&sharing economy) 31 32 33 Appendices: 1.Message Frame Testing 2.OVB Public Policy Issues 34 Appendix 1: Message Frame Testing City of Eugene Sustainability Goals 2012 35 (City of Eugene Sustainability Message Study N=790 Internet Survey, PI 2012) Q4 Role of Consumption in Society Disagree Agree Threatens Ecosystem * Leads to consumer debt To much economic activity depends on waste Lower emphasis on production & consumption * Difficult to consume less, comparison to others Reduce consump bad for long term economy Consump. Necessary for economy, not bad thing Reduce consumption make life less enjoyable 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 If thoughtful consumption means: • Share items with others • Purchase second hand if possible • Purchase locally when possible • Carefully consider environmental impacts • Purchase only what you need Will lead to the following? (Disagree-Agree 5 pt.) 36 37 Q6. “Thoughtful Consumption” could mean: Str.Disagree LeanDisagree Neither LeanAgree Str.Agree Less waste Better life/future generations Good example for others Keep Oregon beautiful Simpler life More financial security Happier life More time w/family & frends More time/learn new things Work less Hurt economy Less excitement 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Eugene Message Frame Study Results shown in order: Aggregated EWEB + City Employee (in bold font); EWEB Residential Customer; City Employee. 5 Votes summarized Future Generations: We all have a responsibility to pass this place on to the next generation in at least as good a condition as we inherited it ourselves. Both our leaders and we our selves must do more to protect this planet for future generations. 872 527 345 Live by Example: Each and every one of us is a teacher by how we act. We need to set a good example for each other and our children by considerate and thoughtful behavior as it applies to care of the earth and equitable sharing of resources. 630 401 229 Oregon Pride: Oregon is a special place which has attracted people who care for the land and natural resources. We have long been a leader in green practices and we can leverage this reputation to set an example for other states. We need to continue to build on our leadership through smart environmental behavior. 412 265 147 Waste Not: Waste is a bad thing, and it is a by-product of thoughtless consumption. It is important to reduce the amount of waste we create by shifting behaviors to a more sustainable lifestyle and living more simply. 735 480 255 Do the Right Thing: I feel better about myself when I know I’m doing the right thing. Recycling, being careful to reuse things, and making purchases with thoughtfulness about consequences gives a sense of self-satisfaction. 616 352 38 264 39 Synthesized Message Frame Competition PI Feb 2012 N=692 - 5 votes per person, distribute any way, not required to use all votes Care for Future Generations protect the planet 872 Waste Not - sustainable lifestyle 735 Live by Example - thoughtful behavior 630 Do the Right Thing - recyle, reuse, reduce 616 Oregon Pride - environmental leadership 412 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 40 Appendix 2 PUBLIC POLICY VIEWS 41 Taxes are necessary to pay for the common good Agree Strongly S2-10 46% Agree Somewhat 40% Disagree Somewhat 7% Disagree Strongly 3% Don’t know 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 42 There has been some discussion in Oregon recently about the level of public services and the cost to taxpayers. Which of the following statements is closest to how you feel? (S2-5) We spend too much on public services and taxes should be reduced 30% 22% We spend about the right amount on public services and taxes should remain the same 31% 44% We don’t spend enough on public services and we should increase some taxes 28% 22% 0% 10% 20% 2002 30% 40% 2013 50% 43 Do you believe a change is needed in Oregon’s tax system at this time? S2-5 64% 66% Yes 21% 25% No 16% 10% Don’t know 0% 20% 40% 2002 60% 2013 80% 44 S3-Q23 (How desirable or undesirable?) Reduce government regulations Strongly desirable 19% 42% Somewhat desirable 23% 25% Neutral Somewhat undesirable 17% Strongly undesirable 11% 28% 4% Don’t know 0% 20% 40% 45 S3-Q27 (How desirable or undesirable?) Reduce business taxes Strongly desirable 14% 35% Somewhat desirable 21% Neutral 25% Somewhat undesirable 21% Strongly undesirable 14% Don’t know 35% 4% 0% 20% 40% S3-Q21 46 Oregonians from diverse backgrounds will find common ground and work together to make progress addressing the critical issues we face as a state Combined Very/Somewhat Responses Probability Desirability Total 42% Total 84% Metro 43% Metro 85% W. Valley 42% W. Valley 84% Central 83% 38% Central 28% Eastern 43% Southern 0% 80% Eastern 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 84% Southern 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%