* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Modelling the interactions between climate change and rice
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Enhancing the Adaptive Capacity of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change: Opportunities and Constraints Pramod Aggarwal Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi, India Agriculture led development in India Food production increased from 65 in 1960s to 230 million tons in 2008 Land saved - more than 50 million ha Calorie intake increased from 1900 to 2500 Kcal/capita/day Poverty decreased in rural areas from 51% (in 1977) to 27% (in 2004) Human development index improved from 0.41 (in 1972) to 0.619 (in 2007-08) And yet problems persist 1/4th of the world’s hungry 40% of the world’s malnourished children and women Lagging in meeting MDGs Given a choice, 40% farmers would like to leave farming (NSSO, 2005) Climate change may further compound the situation 2020 2050 2080 Source: IPCC2007; Adapted from Krishna kumar et al. 2009 Assessing vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change: Controlled environment facilities at Delhi Climate change impacts on crop yields in India: Wheat Climate change impacts on crop yields in India: Maize Climate change impacts on crop yields in India: Sorghum Climate change impacts on crop yields in India: Soybean These impact assessments have uncertainties Possible errors in climate models, crop models and data used No link with change in future irrigation water availability No consideration of weather extremes Future technological developments, (e.g. in crop improvement), and socioeconomic scenarios not considered Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of most C3 crops by 10-20%. A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of many crops by 0-7%. Much higher losses at higher temperatures. Productivity of most crops to decrease only marginally/remain unaffected by 2020 but decrease by 10-40% by 2100. Possibly some improvement in yields of chickpea, winter maize, sorghum and millets. Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in north-western India due to reduced frost damage. Climate change may also provide new opportunities Apple yields in 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 19 80 -8 19 1 82 -8 19 3 84 -8 19 5 86 -8 19 7 88 -8 19 9 90 -9 19 1 92 -9 19 3 94 -9 19 5 96 -9 19 7 98 20 -9 9 00 -2 00 1 Yield (Tons) Himachal have decreased due to inadequate chilling Apple cultivation shifted upwards Farmers changed to vegetables earning more income New varieties with lesser chilling requirement being introduced Years Adapting agriculture to climate change: Setting goals of adaptation •Indian national agricultural policy aims a: •Growth rate of 4% per annum •Growth based on efficiency and conservation of resources •Growth that is inclusive and equitable •Goals of adaptation •Producing more (diversified) food to meet demand •Stabilizing production in climate stressed seasons •Raising input use efficiency to address the increasing competition for land, water, capital, and labour settlements •Greater focus on poor Adapting to climate change by raising crop production: Large yield gaps in crops provide an opportunity 9 Biological potential yield 8 Grain yield, t/ha 7 6 Yield gap2: Limited by climate, soil, and irrigation 5 4 3 2 Biophysical potential yield Yield gap1: Limited by crop management, pests, and risk management approaches Demand 2020 Current yield 1 0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Year Agronomic options can meet goals of adaptation in short-term 20 Net vulnerability, % 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 Impact + Sowing date + Variety + Irrigation efficiency Adaptation options + Fertilizer use efficiency + Additional inputs Adaptation/mitigation options may not always be economically viable: Example of N use efficiency in rice 60 40 30 20 10 Precision farming Integrated N use Zero tillage Fert. placement Nitri. inhibitor -20 Leaf colour chart -10 Plant test 0 Soil test Cost of reducing N loss (Rs. kg -1 N) 50 Cost of one kg N in urea -30 -40 Pathak, H. (2010) Nutr. Cycling Agro-ecosystem. National Food Security Mission Aims to bridge yield gaps Launched in 2007 in 311 districts to raise production by 20 million tons: Better seeds Assured inputsnutrients, irrigation, machinery Farmers training Demos Climate change may limit the potential adaptation window of current technologies 4.0 3.5 Yield gap, t/ha 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1 2 3 4 5 Managing current and future short-term climatic risks is crucial Climatic risks are common in India 70% of land under cultivation prone to drought 12% of land (40 million hectares) to floods 8% of land (8,000 km coastline) to cyclones A major disaster occurs every 2-3 years 30 million people affected annually Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI: BMTPC, Ministry of Urban Development, GOI Short periods of drought can cause large yield losses: Sorghum in Rajasthan 100 Yield loss, % 80 60 40 20 0 1-Jul 16-Jul 31-Jul 15-Aug 30-Aug Period of drought 14-Sep 29-Sep 14-Oct Adaptation to increasing climatic risks: Assisting farmers to cope with current climatic risks Providing value-added weather services Weak weather infrastructure; data protocols, storage, access and dissemination Promoting insurance for climatic risk management scientific and economically validated schemes; weather derivatives; awareness Facilitating community partnership in food, forage and seed banks Technical know-how; capital costs; reduced acceptance if successive years are risk free Compensating farmers for environmental services Technical know-how; costs of production go up Sharing experiences across similar regions Validation in new scenarios of development and climate risks Policy responses have consistently evolved with successive drought events Drought Events 1877 Major Policy Interventions Famine Codes 1965 1979 Contingency Green Employ Crop Revolution ment and FCI Generation Plan Programmes Scarcity relief Each round represent death of one million people 1972 Drought relief 1987 2002 Watershed Approach 2009 Improved weather forecasts and their applications Drought Knowledge Water management management management Each round represent around fifty million people affected Source: ADPC/MOA Drought early warning and response system has been conceptualized RAINFALL MONITORING R E S E R V O I R CENTRAL NATIONAL CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP CROP MONITORING Early Warning RESERVOIR WATER BUDGETING STATE FOOD / NUTRITION SECURITY DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT GENERATION SUB-DISTRICT DRINKING WATER VILLAGE CATTLE CARE Response Programs Source: MOA Despite such policy responses, climatic risks still cause considerable loss Key reasons Poverty (2005) Population at $2/day or less Widespread poverty Limited human capital Poor governance including limited stakeholder analysis, and dissemination of knowledge Green 1-10, Yellow 11-50, Red > 50 Human capital literacy rate Conclusions 1. Large yield gaps in all crops is an opportunity for meeting food demand in future even in the face of increasing climatic risks. 2. In short-term, several options relating to technology transfer and adoption can help improve adaptive capacity. Later, better adapted genotypes will be needed. 3. Climate change may provide new opportunities for growing crops in regions/periods not considered suitable earlier. Need to manage them. 4. Problems related to poverty, governance, institutions, and human capital limit agriculture growth today and can also limit adaptation to increasing climatic risks. Some observations on the proposed Mega Program on climate change Clear identification of stakeholders: Farmers Policy Planners Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon markets) Stakeholders interest in adaptive capacity: Understanding vulnerabilities of the region Overall enhancement of adaptive capacity (not agriculture alone) Short-term action plans Integrated, region specific solutions; and not by themes. Some observations on the proposed Mega Program on climate change New partnerships are required: Other science departments (earth sciences, e.g.) Development departments (e.g. irrigation and disaster management agencies) Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon marketing) Cooperatives (e.g. for food, seed and feed banks)