Download Climate Change and its Impacts on Food and Agriculture

Climate Change and its Impact on
Food and Agriculture
Lim Li Ching,
Third World Network
Climate change - What the
science says
• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
– Warming of climate system is unequivocal:
0.74˚C rise from 1906-2005
– Most of the observed increase due to
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
– Warming by end of 21st century will be worse
than expected: projected rise of 1.8-4˚C (best
estimate; likely range 1.1-6.4˚C)
– Total sea level rise in 20th century is 17cm,
projected sea level rise by end 21st century
ranges from 18-59cm
Climate injustice
• With only 4% of the world population, the US
accounts for more emissions (30.3%) than 136
developing countries that together are responsible
for about 24% of all emissions
• 20% of the world’s richest populations are
responsible for over 60% of current emissions; if
past contributions taken into account, 80%
• Billions of the world’s poorest will be impacted most
by climate change - those who are least
responsible for the problem are paying the price
• Some developed countries failing to meet targets
for emissions reduction, while US has refused to
ratify Kyoto Protocol
200 million climate
refugees by 2050
Impacts of climate change on
agriculture
• Moderate local warming (1-3˚C) means
slightly increased yields in mid- to highlatitudes, depending on crop
• Even small local temperature increases (12˚C) would decrease yields in low-latitudes,
especially in tropical and seasonally dry
areas, which would increase risk of hunger
• Further warming of >3˚C has increasingly
negative impacts; global food production is
projected to decrease
Impacts of climate change on
agriculture
• Projected that crop yields could increase up
to 20% in East and South-East Asia, but
could decrease up to 30% in Central and
South Asia by mid-21st century
• Taken together, and considering the influence
of rapid population growth and urbanisation,
the risk of hunger projected to remain very
high in several Asian developing countries
Impacts of climate change on
agriculture
• Freshwater availability in Central,
South, East and South-East Asia,
particularly in large river basins, is
projected to decrease; could
adversely affect more than a billion
people by the 2050s
• Climate change projected by midcentury to reduce water resources
in many small islands, to the point
where they become insufficient to
meet demand during low-rainfall
periods
Impacts of climate change on
agriculture
• Heat waves very likely to lead to reduced yields
in warmer environments due to heat stress
• Heavy precipitation linked to damage of crops,
soil erosion, waterlogging of soils
• More areas affected by drought, resulting in land
degradation, lower yields/crop damage or failure
• Extreme high sea level events likely to lead to
salinisation of water bodies
• Possible increase in pest and disease
infestations due to warming temperatures
Who are the most vulnerable?
• All countries affected by climate change, but
poorest countries and populations will suffer
earlier and most, even though contributed the
least to the causes of climate change
• Increased frequency of droughts and floods
will affect crop production negatively,
especially in subsistence sectors
• Smallholder and subsistence farmers,
pastoralists and artisanal fisherfolk will suffer
complex, localised impacts of climate change
Agriculture contributes to
climate change
• Agriculture releases significant amount of
CO2,CH4 and N2O - estimated 5.1 to 6.1 GtCO2eq/yr in 2005 (10-12% of global anthropogenic
GHG emissions)
• Including indirect contributions (e.g. land
conversion to agriculture, fertilizer production,
distribution and farm operations) -> 17-32% of
global emissions
• Agricultural N2O emissions projected to increase
by 35-60% up to 2030 due to increased N
fertilizer use and animal manure production
Climate change challenge for
agriculture
• Increased variability, extreme weather
events
– Potential to irreversibly damage agricultural
resource base and lead to food insecurity
– Can farmers and farming adapt?
• Agriculture contributes 10-12% of
anthropogenic GHG emissions
– Can agriculture reduce its emissions?
What kind of agriculture?
• International Assessment of Agricultural
Knowledge, Science & Technology for
Development (IAASTD) 2008
• “Business-as-usual is no longer an option”
– High yields and production with industrial farming,
high external inputs and high energy consumption
– BUT costs to environment and social equity
– Radical overhaul of agricultural policy and practice
urgently needed
IAASTD: Some key findings
• Agriculture involves more than yields; there
are multiple social, political, cultural,
institutional and environmental impacts
• The future of agriculture lies in biodiverse,
agroecologically based farming that can meet
social, economic and environmental goals
• Reliance on resource-extractive industrial
agriculture is unsustainable, particularly in the
face of worsening climate, energy and water
crises
IAASTD: Some key findings
• Short-term technical fixes, including GM crops,
cannot adequately address the complex challenges
facing agriculture, and often exacerbate social and
environmental harms
• Achieving food security and sustainable livelihoods
requires ensuring access to and control of
resources by small-scale farmers, especially
women
• Fair local, regional and global trading regimes can
build local economies, reduce poverty and improve
livelihoods
IAASTD: Some key findings
• Strengthening the human and ecological
resilience of agricultural systems improves
our capacity to respond to changing
environmental and social stresses
• Indigenous knowledge and community-based
innovations are invaluable part of the solution
• Need to build better governance mechanisms
and ensure democratic participation by the
full range of stakeholders
Ecological agriculture and
climate change adaptation
• Application of farmers’ skills and knowledge
– Key to adaptation; to manage complex
agroecosystems, breeding locally adapted seed
and livestock, producing on-farm fertilizers, etc.
• Increased soil fertility and increased organic
matter via compost, manures, cover crops etc
– Reduces negative effects of drought, while
increasing crop productivity
– Enhancement of soil water-holding capacity,
resilience under unpredictable climatic conditions
– Higher water capture during torrential rains,
reducing risks of floods
Ecological agriculture and
climate change adaptation
• High degree of diversity -> risk aversion
– Respond better to change, pest and diseases
• Multiple cropping or polyculture systems
– Greater yield stability and less productivity
declines during drought
• Use of traditional and locally-adapted drought
and heat-tolerant varieties and species
• Agroforestry systems and mulching
– Protect crops against extremes, inhibit moisture loss,
reduce heat stress
Ecological agriculture and
climate change mitigation
• Building up carbon in the soil
– E.g. legumes, crop residues, cover crops, compost
– Enhanced soil fertility stabilizes soil organic matter, may
sequester carbon dioxide
– Reduced soil erosion (impt. source of CO2 losses)
• Using less synthetic external inputs
– Production of N fertilizers energy intensive, account for
0.6-1.2% of global emissions
– Reduced concentration of easily available mineral N in
soils, less N2O emissions
• Recycling N: using manures & N-fixing plants
• Agroforestry and restoring degraded land
Is ecological agriculture
productive?
• Badgley et al. (2007) examined global dataset of 293
examples:
• Organic yields comparable to conventional in
developed countries
– Organic produced 92% of yield of conventional
• Organic practices greatly increase yields in
developing countries, especially if existing system is
low input
– Organic produced 180% of yield of conventional
• Organic can produce enough food on global per
capita basis to sustain current human population
Examples of yield increases
• Review of 286 projects in 57 countries (Pretty
et al., 2006)
– Yields rose on average 79%
• Review of 89 projects for which yield data
available (Pretty & Hine, 2001)
– Yields rose 50-100% for rain-fed crops
– Yields rose 5-10% for irrigated crops
– Average food production per household rose by
73% for small farmers growing cereals & roots
Mainstreaming ecological
agriculture
• Based on locally available resources,
appropriate technologies and specific needs
of farmers
• Systematic redirection in investment, funding,
research, training and policy focus on
ecological agriculture needed
• Overall support needed from governments
and international agencies
• Ensure participation of farmers and producers
in agricultural decision- and policy-making
Action on adaptation and
mitigation in agriculture
• More research and action on adaptation measures in
agriculture, especially in developing countries, in
order to assist farmers
• Action plans for mitigation measures for agriculture
should be urgently researched and implemented
• Prioritize financing assistance for climate adaptation
and mitigation measures in the agriculture sector in
developing countries
• Arrangements for sharing of experiences and transfer
of good practices in agriculture that can constitute
mitigation and adaptation
Climate justice now!
• A fair global deal - based on equity and principles of
burden-sharing, and common but differentiated
responsibilities between the North and South to
establish science-based targets
– Huge and deep cuts needed for the North
– There needs to be ‘environmental space’ for
sustainable development in the South
– Differentiated approach justified as developed
countries bear historical responsibility, are largest
emitters (especially on per capita basis) and have
financial and technological resources
– Finances and technology transfer to the South
• Repay the climate debt
Third World Network
www.twnside.org.sg
TWN Information Service on Sustainable
Agriculture
TWN Information Service on Climate Change
Thank you!