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Climate Negotiations, Paris, and Beyond: Where’s Water? Gregg B. Walker, Ph.D. Member, Faculties of Communication, Environmental Sciences, Forest Ecosystems & Society, Public Policy, and Water Resource Management Programs Oregon State University, USA [email protected] GEOG 507 – Geography Seminar Oregon State University -- 23 January 2017 The Preview • Background - The MBB Project (research access) • A brief history of the climate change negotiations • Water and the Paris Agreement • A visit to Bangladesh As Co-director of the MBB Climate Change Project… • I advocate for “conflict resolution capacity building” and treaty language that features peaceful means for resolving conflicts… • I participate in the UNFCCC process as an “in-situ” researcher… • I observe negotiations and talk with parties… • I study the negotiation “discourse(s)” http://climatechangetv.rtcc.org/cop18-co-chairs-could-helpaid-lca-track-of-climate-talks/ And… • I chair the Climate Change Negotiations Working Group of the International Environmental Communication Association (IECA) • I am a member of the Steering Committee of RINGO – the Research and Independent Nongovernment organization constituency, one of nine Civil Society Organization (CSO) constituencies (others are ENGO, BINGO, YOUNGO…) Negotiating Climate Change – Key Events 1979-The first World Climate Conference (WCC) takes place (sponsored by WMO and UNEP) 1988 — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is set up – established by the United Nations. 1990 -First assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (and 4 more since)… – reflected the views of 400 scientists – primary message: global warming was happening and something had to be done about it. 5 Negotiating Climate Change – Key Events 1992- At the Earth Summit in Brazil (Rio), the UNFCCC is opened for signature along with its sister Rio Conventions, UNCBD and UNCCD. Negotiation of the Convention was fast— especially one on such a vastly complex issue. 1995 — The first Conference of the Parties (COP 1) takes place in Berlin. Countries realized that emission reductions provisions in the Convention were inadequate. They launched negotiations to strengthen the global response to climate change. 1997-Kyoto Protocol is adopted in December at COP3 6 Negotiating Climate Change – Key Events • 2001-Release of IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, Adoption of Marrakesh Accords (adaptation added) • 2007 — IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report released, AWG KP and AWG-LCA • 2009 — Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 in Copenhagen • 2010 — Cancun Agreements drafted and largely accepted by the COP • 2011 — The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action drafted and accepted by the COP • 2012 – Doha Work Programme on Article 6 • 2013 - Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage • 2014 – Lima Call for Climate Action • 2015 – the Paris Agreement 7 The UNFCCC Article 2- The ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner”. 8 The Kyoto Protocol (1997 and 2005) • Adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 but Entered into force on 16 February 2005, due to a complex ratification process. • The Kyoto Protocol (KP) “operationalizes” the Convention. It commits industrialized countries to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions based on the principles of the Convention. The Convention itself only encourages countries to do so. • KP, sets binding emission reduction targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community in its first commitment period. • KP was structured on the principles of the Convention. It only binds developed countries because it recognizes that they are largely responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions. • KP places a heavier burden on developed nations under its central principle: that of “common but differentiated responsibility” (CBDR). 9 The Bali Road Map (Action Plan) • The Bali Action Plan is divided into 5 main categories: 1. Shared vision (a long-term vision for action on climate change, including a long-term goal for emission reductions) 2. Mitigation 3. Adaptation 4. Technology 5. Financing • The Bali Action Plan was highly ambitious- time lines it spelled out overly optimistic, and underestimation of the complexity both of climate change as a problem and of crafting a global response to it. 10 Bali Road Map Building Blocks Global Action Sustainable Development Objectives Finance Mitigation Mitigation Adaptation Adaptation Technology Durban Outcomes (2011) COP 17-With Cancun Agreements and Bali Road Map as their foundations, the Parties reached agreement on a second commitment period on the Kyoto Protocol and on a pathway and deadlines to drawing up and committing to a new, post2020 mitigation framework under the Convention. Parties established the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action which spelled out a path to negotiate a new legal and universal emission reduction agreement by 2015, to be adopted by 2020 (a Paris agreement). This accounts for the mitigation efforts of all countries under one agreement, a seminal turning point . A work programme on raising collective mitigation ambition was launched. The Kyoto Protocol would move into a second commitment period in 2013, in a seamless transition from the end of the second commitment period in 2012. 12 Adaptation versus Mitigation • Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities • Mitigation In the context of climate change, a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases 13 The 2015 Road to Paris – The ADP text 90 page document – areas A. Preamble B. Definitions C. General/Objective D. Mitigation E. Adaptation and Loss and Damage F. Finance G. Technology Development and Transfer H. Capacity Building I. Transparency of Action and Support J. Time frames and process related to commitments/contributions and other matters related to implementation and ambition K. Facilitating Implementation and Compliance L. Procedural and Institutional Provisions An Agreement in Paris? Challenges that had to be Overcome • Decisions by consensus (all parties must agree) • 196 nations/parties • Many negotiation coalitions; countries as members of multiple coalitions • Different views of CBDR (common but differentiated responsibility) • Difficult substantive issues. E.g., finance • Difficult symbolic issues, e.g., human rights The Paris Agreement • 23 years in the making • Provides a foundation for climate action on multiple scales • Issues need to be addressed, refined, improved – details to be worked out • Recognizes a 1.5o C. increase goal (important symbolically) • Voluntary commitments not enough – only achieve 2.7o increase But Where is Water? Consider these statements: • “In many areas, climate change is likely to increase water demand while shrinking water supplies.” (US Environmental Protection Agency) • “Water is the primary medium through which climate change influences Earth’s ecosystem and thus the livelihood and well-being of societies.” (UN Water) • “The vital importance of water and water-related tradeoffs with climate policy has largely been ignored to date.” (German Development Institute) • Note: IPCC Assessment Reports (e.g., 4th and 5th) recognize water – chapters on “hydrology and water resources” and “coastal zones and marine ecosystems.” The Paris Agreement • Where is water mentioned? Nowhere • What about oceans? In the preamble “noting the importance of ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems, including oceans…” – nowhere else • What about sea level rise? Sea level? Hydro? Rivers? Blue carbon? None of these are mentioned – anywhere • “At first glance, water plays no role in the Paris agreement. Upon closer examination, however, we see that climate policy will have far-reaching implications for the availability of water and vice versa.” (German Development Institute) Water Issues and Implementation From the German Development Institute Report: What does the Paris climate agreement mean for water policy? • Climate-related increases in droughts and flooding • Seasonal changes in rainfall • The growing scarcity of local water resources (e.g. as a result of glacial melt) • Deterioration in water quality (e.g. the salinization of freshwater as a consequence of rising sea levels) • Increased migration (“climate refugees”) due to extreme climate and weather events Water and Mitigation • GHG reduction technologies rely to water – e.g., bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). • BECCS involves first growing biomass, including wood or crops such as maize and then combusting it to generate energy. These two steps together are essentially emission neutral. • But…Bioenergy production especially, but also CCS technology, uses considerable quantities of water, which can exacerbate existing regional water shortages in particular. • And blue carbon – “blue carbon is the carbon stored and sequestered in coastal ecosystems such as mangrove forests, seagrass meadows or intertidal saltmarshes.” (Blue Carbon Portal) Water and Adaptation From the GDI Report: Adaptation measures in the water sector include • The retention of water by forests, wetland and artificial storage facilities • Improved soil and water management in rain-fed agriculture • Flood protection • Expansion of irrigation farming (which may reduce the availability and quality of water resources) Let’s visit Bangladesh and its INDC Where is water? • Commercial buildings: harvesting rainwater • Part of its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) • Water security • River management (e.g., dredging, canals) • Construction of water control infrastructures • Involvement of government offices: Water Development Board, Inland Water Transport Authority • Improved irrigation and water management Conclusion • Throughout the climate negotiations, water issues have not been prominent • Water issues and ecosystems -- both freshwater and ocean and coastal – are cross-cutting, related to mitigation, technology…and particularly adaptation • Water issues provide a link between climate change and sustainable development goals (SDGs) • Water issues are critical to implementing sound climate policies Acknowledgements (the sources for some slides) • Dr. Alina Averchenkova, International Consultant • Judith Ephraim, Ministry of Sustainable Development , Energy, Science and Technology, Saint Lucia Thank you for interest! I welcome your comments, questions, concerns… -- Gregg