Download Climate Change and Sustainable Cities

Climate Change and Sustainable
Urban Areas
Indus Valley School, 28.3.2013
Miriam Kugele,
Coordinator Climate Change
and Sustainable Energy,
IUCN Pakistan
Proposed Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Unsustainable practices in Karachi
Introduction to Climate Change
Cities and climate change
Imagine your project space in 50 years;
climate change information needs
5. Options for mitigation and adaptation
6. Identify adaptation alternatives
1. Group Work
• Identify unsustainable practices in urban areas
in Karachi or in your project ‘space’
• NB: Sustainability means for
– Economic,
– Environmental and
– Social aspects;
– And does not compromise the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs.
2. Introduction to Climate Change
CO2 concentration over time
Dec 2012: 395 ppm
World Development report 2010. p 4
The carbon cycle: stocks and fluxes
Source: World Development report. 2010. Focus A: The science of climate change.
Adapted from IPCC. 2007
Greenhouse gas emissions by
region (2004)
Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva
Projected impact on human well-being
2 °C
Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva
PAKISTAN – Ranked as highly VULNERABLE
•
8th most affected country by climate related extreme events between 1991
to 2010 (Germanwatch, 2011)
•
Among 16 most vulnerable countries in Asia (Maplecroft, 2010)
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Losses per year from climate related disasters: around 5% of GDP
•
Annual adaptation costs: expected to range from U$7 to U$14 billion (UNFCCC
(ADB, 2010)
and GOP, 2011)
• Emission share: ~ 0.8% of world’s total (rank 135) (GoP, 2010)
Underlying Vulnerabilities:
• Large range of geo-physical systems
• Dependence on glacial melt water and single river system (Indus)
• Most of the country arid or semi-arid (less than 250mm/year in
precipitation)
• Extensive ecosystems degradation
• High population growth rate, livelihood dependence on natural resources,
poverty
• Low prioritization of environment and climate change issues, and insufficient
human and financial capacities
Selected impacts in Pakistan
• Water insecurity
– River flows: change in seasonal patterns of flows and increased sediment load > reduced
reservoir capacity
– Irrigation capacity reduced / unstable
– Extreme events (esp. floods, droughts)
– Effects on forests and other vulnerable ecosystems (wetlands, mountain regions, etc.)
• Food insecurity
– Agriculture and livestock are backbone of Pakistan’s economy, and still much subsistence
agriculture
– Reduced crop productivity, higher demand for irrigation water, pests, deterioration of
soils, salinity intrusion on coasts, etc.
• Energy insecurity
– Expected 8% increase in demand per year
– Siltation (lower capacity in hydropower)
– Water and heat stress on infrastructure: transmission losses, low energy efficiency may
further decrease
3. Cities and climate change
Why look at cities and climate change?
• ¾ of the world's population expected to be urban in
2030, and 70% of this growth in Asia
• 40% of world’s population living within 100km of coasts
• City governments at critical climate change nexus:
– responsible for large amounts of GHG emissions (buildings
are biggest source of emissions and energy consumption
around the globe)
– populations and infrastructure
are immensely vulnerable
– yet well positioned to act quickly.
Source: WRI 2005
Impacts of CC on cities
• More hot days and heat waves
• More intense rainfall
• Existing climate extremes, such as typhoons, floods
and droughts intensified and more frequent
• Sea level rise: erosion and saltwater intrusion
• Energy production and transmission reduction
• Water quality deterioration
• Reduced productivity of land and access to water:
water and food insecurity
• In-migration (e.g. due to drought)
Exploration: Secondary impacts of
extremes in urban areas
Source:
UNHABITAT 2012
Exploration: cascade effects
Sustained heat wave
Example:
Effects of heat wave
in Germany 2003
for energy production
But: less water
for cooling (dry
spell and policy
limits)
Power plans are
less efficient and
effective + poor
transmission
Breakdown in
energy
production /
special
permissions
required
Higher energy
consumption
(e.g. air
conditioning)
Health impacts;
Stresses om
ecosystems and
on critical
infrastructures; …
Exploration: Urban Heat Island Effect
Urban heat island around 1-30C, yet in the evening
up to 120C
Boston, Massachusetts. Surface temperature, 2009. Source : Camilo Pérez Arrau, 2010
Exploration: Vulnerability
• Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is
susceptible to and unable to cope with the
adverse effects of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a
function of the character, magnitude, and rate of
climate change and variation to which a system is
exposed, as well as the system’s sensitivity and
adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007)
• Areas, people, activities in the city that may be
most vulnerable?
Karachi – context for climate change
• Expected temperature increase in Pakistan
projected to be around 1.3-1.5 °C by 2020s,
2.5-2.8 °C by 2050s, and 3.9- 4.4 °C by 2080s
• Urban growth and urban sprawl
• Very little precipitation
• Coastal location
• Natural resource dependent livelihoods
• High energy demand
• Commercial importance and port
• Lack of adequate drainage
• Drought and floods
Informal settlements
People living in informal settlements often lack the
following critical living conditions:
• „Access to improved water
• „Access to improved sanitation facilities
• „Sufficient living area
• Structural quality and durability of dwellings
• „Security of tenure
> Infrastructure deficit
> Higher vulnerability
> Need to integrate development with disaster risk
reduction and with climate change adaptation
Examples of future risks in cities
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Jakarta, when hit by floods in 2007, for example, experienced a total financial loss of US$879
million, and more than 200,000 refugees.
In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, intense rainfall in 2010 damaged infrastructure and affected waste
management, transportation and communications, while spreading disease in flooded areas.
Hurricane Katrina was estimated to cost the United States over $100 billion . New Orleans is still
dealing with the effects of Hurricane Katrina, and will in the future lose significant parts of the city
from sea level rises should climate change continue on its current path.
In Lagos, Nigeria, unmitigated climate change will displace residents as a result of flooding, cause
water shortages due to salt water intrusion, compound problems with waste management and
human health and stress.
Floods and windstorms caused damage worth over $500 billion and over 150,000 deaths in one
decade (1996-2005). They also affected over 1.6 billion people. Then, in 2008 alone, there were
140,848 deaths from storms although most of these were from the impact of Cyclone Nargis on
Myanmar.
For the ‘Safe Island’ Projects for tsunamis in the Maldives the cost of reclamation and coastal
protection, including harbour works for the Vilifushi project, was about $23 million.
„In Manila, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City, costs of damage from climate change-related flooding
are likely to be substantial, ranging from 2 to 6 percent of regional GDP; a 1-in-30 year flood in
Manila could cost between $900 million and $1.5 billion, given current flood control infrastructure
In Karachi 60 percent of residents live in slum areas and do not have adequate facilities to sustain
heat waves.
4. Group Work
Imagine your project space in 50 years:
• What climate change impacts are relevant?
• What are the biggest risks? For which people
and which assets?
• What are your information needs?
5. Options for mitigation and
adaptation in cities
We need to – and can! – act locally
Definitions of Climate Compatible
Development concepts
• Mitigation: human intervention to
reduce the extent of climate
change. It includes strategies to
reduce greenhouse gas sources
and emissions, and enhancing
greenhouse gas sinks.
• Adaptation: process or action of
adjusting to different
circumstances or conditions, in
this case as a result of a changing
climate.
• Low carbon development:
interface between mitigation and
development. It aims to promote
development while reducing
emissions.
• Climate resilient
development: development that
has the capacity to absorb and
quickly bounce back from climate
shocks and stresses.
Source: Mitchell and Maxwell (2010)
Mitigation potential per sector
Source: IPCC, 2007
MITIGATION
 Requires concerted and focused action
 broad principles of sustainability are
complementary to the measures needed to
mitigate climate change, e.g.
 pressing local environmental problems such as air pollution,
waste and transport
 alternative energy sources become more attractive than fossil
fuel
 better planned with reduced urban sprawl, greener buildings,
public transit
 but addressing climate change has emerged as a
matter that must be tackled in its own right
Low carbon design - buildings
Well-established, over-arching principles:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Understand energy use in the building type
Use the form and fabric of the building to minimise
energy demand
Focus on insulation and airtightness
Use high efficiency building services with low carbon fuels
Manage energy within the building (i.e. low carbon
operations)
Use renewable energy systems
Reducing carbon emissions by changing
the ways in which buildings are
 designed,
 constructed,
 managed and
 used.
Source: www.architecture.com
Buildings and energy
• Retrofit buildings for energy efficiency,
towards ‘low emissions’ or ‘zero carbon’ buildings
• Light coloured roofs
• Solar water heating
• Urban greening
• Public lighting with LEDs
• Behavioural changes in energy and
water use (light bulbs, water heaters, timers)
• Solar panels on roofs (feed-in and island systems possible)
• Offsetting remaining emissions
• Combined heat and power plants / localised energy systems
• Capturing methane from solid waste and sewerage for electricity or
bio-methane (also carbon trading / CDM opportunities)
Transportation
• Public transportation (e.g. Bogota)
and management of vehicle fleet
• Public bicycle rental (e.g. Paris)
• Inner-city restrictions for highly
polluting vehicles (e.g. London,
Germany, …)
• Policy measures to phase out e.g.
leaded fuel, 2 stroke engines, etc.
ADAPTATION
= Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected
climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial
opportunities
•“Soft” adaptation – policies and regulations
•“Hard” adaptation – infrastructure
Global climate change: change in mean global temperature,
changes in regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation,
etc.
Mitigation:
reduce
emissions,
reducing
magnitude of
CC
Greenhouse gas
emissions
Climate change
impacts
Adaptation:
reduce
vulnerability
to CC
impacts,
reduce losses
Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies
Source: UNDP
Adaptation measures - Infrastructure
• measures needed to help cities cope with climate change
vary considerably depending on political, cultural, historical
and climatic conditions
• concerted effort to "climate-proofing" of infrastructure,
including
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storm-drainage systems,
dyke construction and upgrade,
water supply and treatment plants,
"working with nature" (see below)
protection or relocation of energy or solid waste management
facilities (for SLR)
– improved water saving and water management measures
(droughts)
Possible adaptation responses to sea
level rise
Source: IIED 2009
Buildings
• Air conditioning  maladapted
response!!
• Light-colored rooftops in Montreal
increase the albedo of a given building,
thus reducing their energy absorption
potential
• ‘Cool pavements’
• Urban landscape of Santiago, Chile:
White paint and trees are key factors to
diminish the urban heat release.
• Expansion of rainwater storage and use
of rain water and water efficiency
measures
• Desalination of sea water
• Wind corridors
• Water surfaces
Transportation and roads
• Planning e.g. to avoid
flood sensitive areas
(where in Karachi?)
• Planning for space:
• Transit oriented
development
(sustainability aspects)
• Address critical gaps in
the ‘health emergency
response systems’
• Green infrastructure (e.g.
pervious pavement)
• Cleaning up solid waste to
prevent flooding
Costs of adaptation of urban
infrastructure
Costs for low and middle income Asia
Infrastructure deficit
US$ billion 217.5 annually until 2030
Costs for climate proofing
add 0.5-10 %
Adaptation costs of
infrastructure
US$ billion 1.9 - 32.4 per year (UNFCCC)
US$ billion 10.9 - 43.5 per year (IIED)
Residual damage
??
Source: IIED 2009
Adaptation – reduce vulnerabilities
A broad range of measures that reduce
vulnerabilities and increase community
resilience, e.g.:
– local economic development strategies,
– community early warning systems,
– better shelter options and participatory in-situ
slum upgrading,
– relocation of urban populations to appropriate
or improved locations,
– improved public health interventions,
– urban and peri-urban agriculture,
– raise awareness about specific climate change
impacts on the most vulnerable,
– include vulnerable groups in the adaptation
planning and policy-making process
(remember resourcefulness of urban poor),
– strengthen land administration and regulation.
“Soft” adaptation = policies and planning
= Supportive policy tools for CC
consideration in architecture and
planning
- Energy and GHG emissions audits
- Building codes and building
performance standards (e.g. 5 year
performance/ reduction targets)
- Sustainable design guidelines (for
constructing and renovating
buildings)
- Driving innovation through public
procurement
- EIAs
- Land use / urban planning (e.g.
designation of flood storage areas)
- Public health measures
- Disaster planning
Soft” adaptation = green infrastructure
• Mangroves absorb 70-90% of the energy from a normal wave
• Wetlands, mangroves and barrier beaches act as viable buffers from
storms and flooding, also during the 2004 tsunami in SEA
• Mangroves in Vietnam were planted at a cost of USD 1.1 million
(12000 ha) while saving annual dyke maintenance costs of USD 7.3
million (TEEB, 2009)
Adaptation and DRR
 Climate change considerations
can be integrated with disaster
risk reduction (DRR) in cities
- develop climate change
adaptation plans
- information / awareness raising
- capacity building amongst all
relevant actors
- early warning systems
- structural: dykes and levies
Exploration: Policy context in Pakistan
• Policy level:
– UNFCCC signed in 1992
– Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2003
– Kyoto Protocol signed in 2005
– NCCP endorsed by Cabinet in 2012, weak on engagement and
implementation mechanisms
– NCCP and cities: no mention under adaptation, for mitigation: waste,
CDM, land use planning, solar water heating
• Implementation level:
– 14 CDM projects
– Few explicit adaptation activities
– Climate change and adaptation are not a priority
– Little upscaling / lessons learnt
– No local adaptation plans, no urban analyses and plans
– Low capacity and knowledge on financing
Actors
• National and international policy makers
• City Governments are Often First Responders and Primary
Local Planners
• Households
• Communities / Civil society
• Planners
• Construction Companies / Industry
• Academia
• ….
6. Group Work
Identifying alternatives:
• For your project spaces, designs and practices,
consider what mitigation and adaptation
options are available
• How are the outcomes different than without
these measures? Are these ‘sustainable’?
• What additional inputs are required?
ANY REMAINING QUESTIONS,
SUGGESTIONS, COMMENTS?
Miriam Kugele,
Coordinator Climate Change
and Sustainable Energy,
IUCN Pakistan
[email protected]
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Knowledge centre on cities and climate change: http://www.citiesandclimatechange.org/pagehome-1.html
ICLEI low-carbon cities: http://www.iclei.org/our-activities/our-agendas/low-carbon-city.html
UNEP Builings and Climate Change: Summary for Decision Makers: www.unep.org/sbci/pdfs/SBCIBCCSummary.pdf
ICLEI: Sustainable Urban Energy Planning:
http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio20//content/documents/Sustainable%20Urban%20Energy%20Planni
ng.pdf
Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Cities:
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTURBANDEVELOPMENT/Resources/3363871318995974398/GuideClimChangeAdaptCities.pdf
Planning for CC-Approach for urban planners:
http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/11462_1_594565.pdf
Local leadership for climate change action:
http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/11463_1_594564.pdf
Sustainable architecture blog: http://www.domusweb.it/en/architecture/really-sustainable/
Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network: http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/ourwork/current-work/developing-climate-change-resilience/asian-cities-climate-change-resilience
RIBA:
http://www.architecture.com/FindOutAbout/Sustainabilityandclimatechange/Sustainabilityandclima
techange.aspx
Developing local CC plans (for cities):
http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/11424_1_594548.pdf
Adapting to Climate Change, Cities and the Urban Poor: http://intlhc.org/wpcontent/uploads/2011/09/Climate-Change-and-the-Urban-Poor.pdf