Download Opstel Anders Climate change Changes Changes in the

Opstel Anders Climate change
<h2>Changes</h2>
Changes in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, the use of
our surface and the sun radiation cause changes in the energy balance of our climate
system. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations also leads to an
increasing acidification of the ocean.
Due to human activities since the industrialization (around 1750), the concentrations of
carbon dioxide (Co2) methane and nitrous oxide have increased to values that far
exceed the pre-industrial situation. These pre-industrial values were determined by
testing ice cores from various periods over thousands of year. The increase in carbon
dioxide is primarily due to the use of fossil fuels and the way humans use the surface
(for instance the deforestation of large areas). The use of fossil fuels remains the
primary contributor to the increase carbon dioxide concentrations. Methane and nitrous
oxide are released by agriculture and cause air pollution and greenhouse effects.
However, carbon dioxide remains the number one anthropogenic greenhouse gas.
<h2>What are the numbers?</h2>
The concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from 280 ppm in pre-industrial times
to 379 ppm in 2005. In this year, the atmospheric concentration already greatly
exceeded the natural range over the past 650000 years. This natural range is determined
to be 180 to 300 ppm. In the last 10 years, the annual growth rate of carbon dioxide
concentrations (1.9 ppm annually) has been larger than any growth rate ever seen since
1960, when the average rate was 1.4 ppm a year.
<h2>Predictions and research</h2>
Continued greenhouse gas emissions at, or above, current rates would cause further
global warming and would induce many changes in our global climate system during
the current century. The warming and changes will very likely be much larger than
those observed during the 20th century. This is probably why the scientific world shows
great interest in the subject. Advances in the modeling of climate change now enable
better estimates and assessed ranges for the effects and procession of various emission
scenarios. The new assessment of the future ranges relies on more and more different
climate models of increasing complexity and realism. Now added to the calculations
and estimations is new information about constraints on climate response and feedbacks
from the natural carbon cycle.
<h2>Effects</h2>
Climate change will cause increased intensity of extreme weather, leading to for
instance blizzards and hurricanes. These weather issues will occur mostly in poor
regions, and (re)enforce conflicts and a decrease of economic, social and political
security for inhabitants of the developing world. The dieback in the amazon rainforest,
changes in the ocean circulation, food and water shortages and the rise of the ocean
levels will transform our earth almost completely. One of the most widely used
examples for the serious effects of climate change is the melting of the arctic ice. In the
summer of 2007, sea ice in the arctic area was around 39% below the summer average
for 1979-2000, an area loss equal to nearly five United Kingdoms
<h2>Solutions</h2>
driven by the news of these effects, some of the world’s leading scientist on climate
have come up with the highest safe level of carbon dioxide parts per million , namely
350. if we keep the ppm below this number, it will be possible to preserve our living
environment.
As James Hansen of America&#39;s National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(the first scientist to warn about global warming) wrote:
"If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed
and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleo climate evidence and ongoing climate
change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most
350 ppm." this might seem easy, but reality is that the current population only increases
their carbon dioxide emission, due to the rapid developments in both rich and poor
countries. so cutting back on emissions will be hard. but not impossible. the main
problem seems to be the use of fossil fuels. that’s why the use of these fuels needs to
stop and be replaced with renewable energy sources. all of this needs to happen in a way
the now developing countries still get a change to improve their economic situation. if
the earthlings do manage to cut back their emission, the earth’ s soil is predicted to
slowly cycle the extra carbon dioxide out until the concentrations reach safe levels
again. By decreasing the use of fossil fuels, and by improving our agricultural and
forestry practices around the world, many scientists believe it’s possible get back below
350 ppm by mid-century. But: the longer we remain in this danger zone (above 350),
the more likely that we’ll see the disastrous and irreversible climate impacts change our
world.
<h2>Bibliography:</h2>
<ol>
<li>A Safe Operating Space for Humanity. Nature 461, 472-475 (24
September 2009); doi:10.1038/461472a; Published online 23 September 2009</li>
<li>Hansen, James, et al. Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should
Humanity Aim? Submitted April 7, 2008. NASA climate scientist James
Hansen&#39;s paper about the 350ppm target.</li>
<li>Hansen, James, et al. Target Atmospheric CO2: Supporting
Material. Submitted April 7, 2008.</li>
<li>The IPCC 4th Assessment Report – link to the latest report by the
Nobel-prize winning United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
supported by the world&#39;s leading climatologists.</li>
<li>Baer, Paul, Tom Athanasiou and Sivan Kartha. "The Right to
Develop in a Climate Constrained World: The Greenhouse Development Rights
Framework" - an important policy framework for how to mitigate climate change
while ensuring an equitable path to development for the Global South.</li>
</ol>
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<div id="ftn1">
[1] FIGURE 1. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide over the last 10,000 years (large panels) and since 1750
(inset panels). Measurements are shown from ice cores (symbols with
different colours for different studies) and atmospheric samples (red lines).
The corresponding radiative forcings are shown on the right hand axes of the large
panels.
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