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Sydney Catchment Authority Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 Blue Mountains Catchments Greaves Creek Dam Medlow Dam SCA’s drinking water catchments Woodford Dam Cascade Dams Lithgow Haw kes bu ry R xs River Co r ive Katoomba Prospect Reservoir Warragamba Dam Pipelines Sydney nR Wo ro n a pe Ko wm un Ne Lake Burragorang Upp gR ive r er C ana l Prospect Water Filtration Plant aR or iver ive r Woronora Dam Broughtons Pass Weir Pheasants Nest Weir tai Nat ec er Riv Wing a r ri b ee R Crookwell ly dil on o ll W Goulburn r Rive iver Bowral Nepean Dam Cataract Dam Avon Dam Wingecarribee Reservoir Fitzroy Falls Reservoir Lake Yarrunga Bendeela Pondage Nowra r ive Sh oa lha ve n R Tallowa Dam Canberra Wollongong Cordeaux Dam Braidwood Sydney Catchment Authority Drinking water catchments Pumping station Canals and pipelines Dam Cooma Contents Executive summary 1 Introduction 2 Climate change projections 3 4 5 2 6 7 2.1 Climate projections for Sydney region 9 2.2 Climate scenarios used in this study 10 Mitigation strategies Climate change hazards and impacts Adaptation 12 13 14 5.1 Tools and systems 15 5.2 Water quantity 16 5.3 Water quality 17 5.4 Environment 18 5.5 Land use 19 5.6 Infrastructure 20 5.7 Supply chain 22 5.8 Business 22 5.9 Regulation and relationships 24 6 Conclusion References Acronyms Contact information 26 27 28 30 Executive Summary Changes in climatic conditions – in the form of increased climate variability, longer-term averages, altered rainfall distributions, increased frequency and/ or intensity of extreme weather-related events – are likely to have broadranging implications for the Sydney Catchment Authority (SCA). A comprehensive climate change impact assessment completed by the SCA in 2010 has emphasised the complexity of the interrelations between water quantity, water quality and catchment condition, and highlighted the potential impacts of climate change on SCA operations, infrastructure, business and regulation. The climate futures used in this assessment are based on recent climate projections covering SCA catchment areas. Projections of future climate have large uncertainties because current models are unable to capture the complexity of feedback mechanisms in the earth-atmosphere-hydrosphere system. Although the science of climate modelling is rapidly improving, models and projections at best present a range of possible futures to consider in scenario and business planning. Such known uncertainty requires the SCA to be adaptable to rapid change and apply ongoing sustainable and flexible business practices to ensure resilience to changes in climate and other external forces. The impact assessment considered two future climate scenarios with higher temperatures and more variable rainfall patterns, and identified and prioritised impacts via a series of structured internal workshops. Groups of SCA specialists then identified current activities or controls that partially mitigate the potential impacts, and also developed a range of responses that could be considered in the future. The assessment found that overall, the SCA has a high degree of preparedness for many of the potential impacts of climate change. Water resource managers in Australia have historically had to deal with a high degree of climatic and hydrologic variability. The SCA has identified a number of business areas where improved planning, additional investment and backup systems could assist in building adaptive capacity and business resilience. It was noted that external forces such as population growth, changes in government policy and investment in source diversification for purposes other than climate change may impact on the SCA sooner than climate change itself. The impact assessment found that additional investments in infrastructure, modelling, tools and preparedness would assist in building adaptive capacity and business resilience. Scenario exercises based on a range of climate and population projections would inform strategic planning and prepare the SCA for expanded business opportunities. The findings of the assessment have already been built into the SCA’s business planning as part of the Corporate Sustainability Strategy that provides the SCA’s strategic direction for the next five years. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 2 Climate change actions Action 1 – Ensuring climate change scenarios are realistic The SCA will work with other government agencies and research providers to expand and improve climate modelling to encompass a broader range of climate scenarios and simulate multi-year climatic fluctuations. Although the science of climate modelling is improving rapidly, models and projections at best present a wide range of possible futures to guide business planning. Current projections of future climate scenarios have large uncertainties because of changing estimates on emission levels, differences between the global climate models, problems in the simulation of realistic flood and drought cycles (hydrologic persistence), and the inability of current climate models to capture the complexity of feedback mechanisms in the earth- atmosphere- hydrosphere system. Action 2 – Reducing the SCA’s carbon footprint The SCA will continue to investigate and improve energy efficiency, expand hydroelectric generation and assess the business benefits of carbon offsets as part of its sustainability strategy. Much attention is being placed on the development of adaptation strategies to deal with the impacts of climate change. There is still the opportunity to influence the direction and magnitude of the outcomes by reducing the scale of greenhouse gas emissions. Action 3 – Quantifying the impact of climate change on water quantity and quality The SCA will review its existing models as well as a new generation of software to assess their performance under climate change scenarios. The SCA relies heavily on predictive models and analytical tools to inform catchment and reservoir management decisions and early warning systems. A changing climate will challenge the validity of many of these tools, as it may drive events which are beyond our historical experience and therefore outside of the calibration range of our existing models. As climate change is likely to fundamentally alter previously assumed land and water relationships, more rigorous calibrations and testing of the models is needed under a variety of climate change scenarios. Action 4 – Increasing flexibility in the water supply system The SCA will investigate increasing the flexibility in the water supply system, including increased capacity to transfer water between different parts of the supply system. Greater flexibility would significantly enhance the SCA’s ability to cope with projected changes in the distribution of rainfall (wetter in coastal and drier in inland parts of the SCA catchments) as well as increased water quality risks (eg increased risk of cyanobacteria blooms caused by longer drought periods, higher temperatures and more intensive rainfall events). SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 3 Action 5 – Improving SCA’s capacity to monitor short-duration events The SCA will increase the emphasis on event-based sampling, offset by reduced effort in routine sampling. Most climate change projections are indicating increased storm activity and high intensity rainfall in summer between extended dry periods. This is likely to result in more rapid and more extreme changes in water quality, and more complex behaviour shifts in reservoir hydrodynamics. Monitoring of extreme events (both very low and very high flows) has always been challenging and yet will become even more important as this data is needed to help improve modelling capabilities and calibrations. Action 6 – Reviewing strategies and plans for sensitivity to climate change scenarios The SCA will review its corporate strategies and plans of management to ensure sensitivity to climate change scenarios. Climate changes are likely to have a broad impact on catchment and stream health, and on the relative contributions of pollutants across the different sources, and accelerate changes in land use and regional development. Evaluation of the impact of land uses and the interventions implemented through the Healthy Catchment Strategy are likely to be confounded by climate changes, while the plans of management for Special Areas should be expanded to take into account climate change implications. Action 7 – Reviewing design specifications of existing critical infrastructure The SCA will instigate an ongoing program for the review of design specifications of existing infrastructure, plant and equipment to assess its vulnerability to extreme events such as storms, fires and floods. A change in rainfall patterns and more severe storm events could impact a wide range of SCA infrastructure, including critical control systems at dams, pumping stations, control structures and monitoring and telecommunications systems. More frequent and/or higher intensity bushfires can also threaten infrastructure. Action 8 – Building explicit consideration of climate change into new business initiatives and project designs SCA will embed considerations relevant to climate change into its planning and business processes. The SCA’s sustainability framework has opportunities to align climate change resilience with forward planning. Climate change impacts on supply and water quality will increase the need to justify project expenditure as well as put pressure on revenues. SCA business cases, which are already required to include sustainability criteria, should address climate related risks and demonstrate their potential to improve business resilience. Business cases should also explore alternative funding options and economic models. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 4 Action 9 – Increasing preparedness to manage concurrent or extreme incidents The SCA will improve its workforce’s adaptive capacity and responsiveness by investing in skills training and professional development for its staff. Preparedness for managing extreme or concurrent incidents is a business reality. Higher temperature and more severe storms are likely to lead to an increase in the number and complexity of declared incidents. During a concurrent or extreme incident key infrastructure would challenge operating procedures and organisational resilience. The SCA’s incident response and scenario-based contingency planning are well developed. The SCA will increase its attention to incident management, business continuity and disaster recovery planning to ensure that Sydney’s raw drinking water is managed to international best practice. Action 10 – Improving communication and knowledge exchange on climate change The SCA will be proactive in communicating with catchment communities and the broader Sydney community regarding the impacts of climate change. Changes in security of supply, water source management and water quality resulting from climate change could impact on public confidence in the SCA’s ability to deliver reliable quality water. New or expanded outreach programs will be needed to manage community expectations of water quality and supply issues. Adapting to climate change will require changes in land practices and probably catchment development controls. The SCA will need to support local councils and landholders to understand the changing circumstances and the impacts on water and the environment, and provide assistance in making the required changes to legislation and best management practices. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 5 1 Introduction Climate change challenges the traditional assumption that past hydrological experience provides a good guide to future conditions 1 The water supply system managed by the SCA and its predecessors has developed in response to the variable climate of the Sydney region and steady population growth. The Metropolitan Water Plan (MWP) 2004 and subsequent revisions comprise an adaptive, integrated approach to water management through a combination of diversification of supply and demand management. A collaborative study on the projected impact of climate change on supply and demand has been undertaken under the auspices of the MWP. However, risks imposed by climate change are much wider than covered in the MWP study, in particular with respect to land use, water quality and infrastructure. Sydney Water has conducted a climate change risk assessment of its operations (SWC, 2008), as have other utilities. Although many operational areas of the SCA have implicitly considered the effects of climate change and variability in their business plans, this effort has not been coordinated or updated with the latest climate projections. To assess the broader implications of climate change on the SCA, a comprehensive climate change impact assessment was conducted between August 2009 and February 2010. The assessment involved a series of workshops with 30 senior staff from across the organisation, preceded by seminars on the science of climate change. The workshops were designed to assess the current understanding of climate change within the SCA, determine climate assumptions built into operations and planning, and explore the sensitivity of business operations to projections of climatic extremes that lie outside those previously experienced. About 1000 potential impacts were identified, and later consolidated into 171 hazard and impact statements in nine categories: water quantity, water quality, tools and systems, infrastructure, environment, land use, supply chain, business, and regulation and relationships. Focussed workshops with key staff from SCA business units then reviewed the climate impacts, assessed current controls and developed a range of management actions that could reduce any potential climate impacts. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 6 1 Climate Change and Water, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008, 192 pp 2 Climate change projections The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988 to summarise and assess the vast array of peer-reviewed scientific literature on climate change. The IPCC published assessment reports in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007. To standardise assumptions of greenhouse gases for climate modelling, the IPCC prepared a series of future emission scenarios for use in the third and fourth assessments. The Fourth IPCC Assessment (IPPC-4), Climate Change 2007, is the most definitive in terms of linking observed climate change to anthropogenic (human-induced) generation of greenhouse gases. An IPCC 2008 technical paper, Climate Change and Water, focuses on the impact of projected climate change on the world’s freshwater systems. Implications of the 2001 IPPC-3 findings for Australia were summarised in Climate Change in Australia, published in 2007 (CSIRO, 2007a). Areas most at risk were identified as the Murray-Darling Basin, Great Barrier Reef and southwest Western Australia, with broad-scale projections including a 40% higher chance of drought in eastern Australia by 2070. The NSW Greenhouse Office, now part of the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water (DECCW), commissioned CSIRO to assess projected changes in average climate and climate extremes for NSW over the next 70 years based on modelling outputs from the 2007 CSIRO study, which in turn was based on the 2001 IPPC assessment. A series of individual reports on the impact of climate change for individual Catchment Management Authorities in NSW were also published (CSIRO 2007b). These projections are based on 200 km grid cells and are unable to provide the resolution needed for regional studies required by the SCA. In 2009 DECCW commissioned the University of NSW to develop regionallevel climatic projections of temperature and rainfall for nine State Plan regions of NSW for the year 2050. The NSW Climate Impact Profile forms part of Action in a Changing Climate (CCAP) which describes actions to be taken over the next five years to respond to the challenge of climate change. The projections are based on a modelling grid size of 200 km to 300 km with interpolation down to 50 km x 50 km, and have high uncertainties around coastal regions. The consensus of climate scientists is that many areas of Australia are already showing evidence of the effects of climate change, for instance decades of reduced rainfall and runoff in the Murray-Darling Basin and southwest Western Australia. The unprecedented high temperatures which contributed to the severity of the February 2009 bushfires in Victoria was also a clear climate change signal. However the data for the Sydney region is more equivocal and average rainfall has not been too different from long-term averages. It is instructive to note that the climate in Sydney’s catchment areas is influenced by interactions between southern circulation patterns driven by the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) over Antarctica, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, and northern circulation patterns more closely correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This interaction is more complex than climate drivers in the north or south of the country. Note, also, that SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 7 rainfall is more difficult to model than other climatic parameters such as air pressure and temperature. The most recent IPCC-4 report is based on peer-reviewed scientific papers that are now at least five years old. The most recent scientific data indicates that greenhouse gas emissions and global warming observations are tracking on or above the worse-case scenario considered by the IPCC in its 2007 report. Regional climate models The climate projections contained in the IPCC reports are calculated using large-scale three-dimensional models with grid cells of 200 km to 300 km. More detailed downscaled models are required to model climate on the finer scale required for water supply planning at a catchment level. Such models are complex and require large amounts of computing power. Modelling recently undertaken by the CSIRO and University of NSW (NSW Office of Water, 2010) for the SCA as part of the climate change supplydemand component of the MWP is downscaled to a 4 km grid size which better captures local topographic and mesoclimate effects. Limitations in climate modelling Climate projections are presented as a range or distribution of possible climates – temperature and average or seasonal rainfall – that are plausible under future greenhouse gas scenarios. One of the dangers in using the outputs from climate models is the adoption of unrealistic expectations of the accuracy or certainty of the climate projections. Even when ranges for model runs are given (eg temperatures vary from +0.2°C to +5.6°C), there is a natural, but incorrect, tendency to assume the central value as ‘most likely’. More importantly, global climate models cannot yet reproduce inter-decadal cycles such as driven by ENSO events, and cannot reproduce multi-year droughts and extended periods of higher rainfall. Consequently, most runoff/ yield studies make assumptions in the degree of year-to-year correlation, or ‘persistence’ in future climates. In the MWP Sydney study it is assumed that the future persistence is similar to that observed in the historical (100-year) record in the absence of more appropriate climate models. The resultant ‘system yield’ is strongly dependent on the assumed persistence. Climate extremes and variability At a local level, it is difficult to distinguish between climate variability and climate change. In areas such as south-eastern Australia, natural climate variability exhibits wide fluctuations year-to-year and decade-to-decade compared to long-term trends projected in climate change scenarios (Figure 1). SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 8 Figure 1. Time series of mean annual maximum temperature anomalies in NSW between 1950 and 2003. The red and blue bars are percentage of NSW in the top (hot - red) and bottom (cold - blue) deciles compared to the average between 1961 and 1990 (from Climate Change in New South Wales: Hennessy et al, 2004a). 2.1 Climate projections for Sydney region The most detailed climate study at the scale required by the SCA is the Climate change impacts on water supply and demand in Sydney (NSW Office of Water, 2010), which was conducted as part of the MWP. Examples of climate projections from this study include: • Increase in rainfall and streamflow in metropolitan catchments. • Reduced rainfall and streamflow in Warragamba and Shoalhaven catchments. • Increase in summer rainfall due to stronger onshore airflows, slight decrease in winter. • Number of days of extreme rainfall (>40mm/day) increases by 45% in summer. • Increase in frequency of continued dry spells (15 days or more). • Double in frequency of hot (>32°C) and very hot (>37°C ) days. • Evaporation increases by 10% with double the number of very high evaporation days. The most serious limitations of this study are that results are based on a single global climate model, and the assumption that ‘persistence’ (year-to-year correlation) is similar to the historical record. Other studies relevant to the SCA catchment area include Rainfall extremes under climate change conducted by the CSIRO for the Sydney Metropolitan Catchment Management Authority (CMA) and partners (Abbs, in prep), and NSW Climate Impact Profile (DECCW, in prep). These studies on the anticipated effects of climate change in eastern NSW and locally in the Sydney region demonstrate the wide scatter in climatic variables that arise from climate modelling and the inherent uncertainties in climate projections. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 9 The SCA’s system yield projections are based on historical hydrological records which are unrepresentative under climate change scenarios. On the other hand, current projections of future climate scenarios (including recent climate modelling undertaken for the MWP) are subject to large uncertainties for a number of reasons including: • inability to simulate realistic flood and drought cycles (hydrologic persistence) • changing estimates on emission levels • differences between the global climate models • inability of current climate models to capture the complexity of feedback mechanisms in the earth- atmosphere- hydrosphere system. A major knowledge gap exists on the evaluation and selection of climate models and downscaling techniques for the SCA catchment areas. A single climate model was used in the MWP climate study, and the model outputs could not simulate multi-year correlations (persistence) of drought and rain periods. As climatic modelling tools are continually improving, this will likely be an area of ongoing research effort for the SCA, working with other agencies and industry bodies as appropriate. Although the science of climate modelling is improving rapidly, models and projections at best present a wide range of possible futures to guide business planning. Climate Change Action 1 – Ensuring climate change scenarios are realistic SCA Corporate Sustainability Strategy key focus area: Stakeholder relationships The SCA will work with other government agencies and research providers to expand and improve climate modelling to encompass a broader range of climate scenarios and simulate multi-year climatic fluctuations and a focus on year-to-year drought and rainfall correlations. 2.2 Climate scenarios used in this study Two representative climate change scenarios were developed for SCA’s climate change impact assessment. Each scenario is a plausible climatic condition that could arise at some time during the next 50 years. The scenarios are sufficiently different to current climate to challenge ‘business as usual’ and are within the range of projected impacts. Scenario 1 – Warmer and stormier – was designed to explore the full range of impacts, both internal and external, that could affect the organisation in a changing climate. Scenario 2 – Hot, dry and stormy – is more extreme but still plausible, and was used to test the completeness of the list of impacts identified in Scenario 1. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 10 Scenario 1: Warmer and stormier • Increasing frequency of east coast lows but extended periods of dry westerly winds. • Similar average annual rainfall but longer dry spells. • Heavier rainfall from storm events during summer. • Hotter weather, higher evaporation rates. Temperature Rainfall Evapotranspiration Wind Increase by 3°C on average Similar average as 10% increase in summer Summer peak current climate, but and spring wind speeds increase in summer increase by 10% rainfall and decrease in winter rainfall Higher maxima and higher minima Spatial redistribution – more coastal rainfall Heat waves (>35oC) twice as common Extended dry spells Double number of high evaporation days Increased number of consecutive days of light rain Scenario 2: Hot, dry and stormy • Clear climate shift, weather systems move south. • More severe El Nino periods bring much hotter weather and extended droughts. • Increase in Tasman highs brings more intense but infrequent storm events. • Coastal dominated weather systems, with more storm events in summer. • Very dry inland. Temperature Rainfall Increase average by 6°C 20% decrease in total rainfall, but increase in proportion that falls in intense, short bursts Evapotranspiration Wind 20% increase in summer Peak wind and spring speeds increase by 30% More intense and Spatial redistribution frequent heat waves – increased coastal rainfall (metropolitan dams) in summer and autumn. Decrease in Shoalhaven catchment. Very dry inland Higher maximum and higher minimum temperatures Longer dry spells, multi-year droughts SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 11 3 Mitigation strategies While much attention is now being placed on the development of adaptation strategies to deal with the impact of climate change, there is still significant opportunity to influence the direction and magnitude of the outcomes by reducing the scale of greenhouse gas emissions. Mitigation strategies are increasingly reflected in government policy with resultant impacts on carbon pricing, renewable energy targets, and electricity and fuel costs. As part of its sustainability strategy, the SCA is already seeking to expand its use of hydroelectricity plants to reduce its dependence on carbon fuel energy, investigating improvements in energy efficiency and investigating business opportunities for carbon offsets. Climate Change Action 2 – Reducing the SCA’s carbon footprint SCA Corporate Sustainability Strategy key focus area: Resource optimisation The SCA will continue to investigate and improve energy efficiency, expand hydroelectric generation and assess the business benefits of carbon offsets. The environmental footprint of SCA’s workforce could be improved by the use of tele- and video-conferencing and, where appropriate, active encouragement of telecommuting and other initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 12 4 Climate change hazards and impacts Climate change impacts can be analysed at a number of levels. At the highest level are the primary climatic variables (eg temperature, rainfall, evaporation, wind) that lead to a secondary hazard (eg increased bushfires, short intense storms) which will generate a range of resource and business implications (eg increased erosion and turbidity, greater bushfire damage). The final level encompasses management and cost implications on the SCA and its stakeholders (eg agreements with the Rural Fire Service, disruptions to power supplies and telecommunications, impacts on public safety). Primary climatic hazard • Increased temperatures and temperature variability • Changes in rainfall distribution, frequency and variability • Extreme weather events – changes in frequency and severity of floods, fires, high winds and lightning Secondary hazard Implications • Drier soils leading to changes in rainfallrunoff relationships • Increased bushfire risk • Higher erosion rates increase sediment load and turbidity • Increased nutrient loads and more frequent algal blooms • Increased need for fire-fighting resources • Interruptions to communications • Electricity disruptions and pumping station shutdowns SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 13 5 Adaptation The term ‘adaptation’ in the context of the SCA climate impact study refers to actions that can be taken by the SCA to increase its preparedness to deal with climate change impacts as and when they arise. These actions must be designed to build organisational resilience to increased variability, severity and unpredictability of events related to changes in climate. Adaptation also includes actions that can be taken by the SCA to achieve sustainable business outcomes in response to, and in anticipation of, government, economic and social change that could occur as a result of climate change. Some of these actions are already part of routine business; others require additional investment or negotiation with external agencies. The adaptation responses were developed through a series of nine focussed workshops where specialists in relevant SCA business units critically reviewed the potential impacts and identified existing controls or actions that should lessen or partially address the impact across nine theme areas: 1. Tools and systems 2. Water quantity 3. Water quality 4. Environment 5. Land use 6. Infrastructure 7. Supply chain 8. Business 9. Regulation and relationships Workshop participants also identified additional actions or responses that could be considered in the future, subject to further feasibility, risk assessment and cost-benefit studies. Participants then ranked the relative importance (low, medium, high) of each impact in terms of the potential significance on the organisation. Thirty percent of the impacts were considered high importance, with the balance equally distributed between low and medium importance. The largest number of high importance impacts was identified in the infrastructure category, followed by environment and water quantity. The relative rankings within each of the nine theme areas are shown in Figure 2. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 14 Figure 2. Climate change impacts grouped into major themes and ranked by relative importance. The nine groups of controls or actions were subsequently sorted according to the key focus areas in the SCA Corporate Sustainability Strategy, to ensure the actions are embedded in the SCA’s planning framework. Overall, the SCA has a high degree of preparedness for handling many of the potential impacts of climate change. In part this is due to the fact that water resource managers in Australia (including the SCA) have historically had to deal with a high degree of climatic and hydrologic variability. Therefore a range of controls (operations, policies or procedures) and inbuilt flexibility is already in place, which can be accelerated if needed. However, the SCA has identified a number of business areas where improved planning, additional investment and back-up systems could assist in building adaptive capacity and business resilience. The following sections summarise the identified business vulnerabilities, existing controls and possible responses according to the key focus areas of the SCA’s Corporate Sustainability Strategy. 5.1 Tools and systems Key vulnerabilities • Increase in flow variability across storages. • Lower inflows into Warragamba Dam and Tallowa Dam in Shoalhaven. • More inflows into Metropolitan storages (Avon, Cataract, Cordeaux, Nepean and Woronora dams). • Changes in the origins, amount, and timing of pollutant loads. The SCA relies heavily on predictive models and analytical tools to inform catchment and reservoir management decisions and early warning systems. A changing climate will challenge the validity of many of these tools. This is because climate change may drive events which are beyond our historical experience (and therefore outside of the calibration range of our existing models), and because climate change is likely to fundamentally alter previously assumed land and water relationships. The SCA is building improved models of catchment stream flow and transport of pollutants during wet weather events. It is also undertaking a review of both its existing portfolio of models as well as the new generation of models available for simulating catchment runoff, pollutant instream flows, instream fate and transport of pollutants as well as groundwater-surface water interactions under climate change scenarios. The SCA’s current water monitoring review is considering improvements to the monitoring network to ensure it can support future modelling needs. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 15 Climate Change Action 3 – Quantifying the impact of climate change on water quantity and quality Corporate Sustainability key focus area: Reliable water The SCA will complete its review of models including an assessment of their performance under climate change scenarios. Existing modelling tools will be reviewed for sensitivity to assumptions on climatic parameters and revised as necessary, and sensitivity runs of the models will be undertaken under a variety of climate change scenarios together with more rigorous calibration to improve model predictions under both drought and extreme wet weather events. Models will need to be able to efficiently handle statistical probability data sets as well as historic data sets and where possible, catchment and reservoir modelling will need to be more closely coupled. SCA’s monitoring program will be more closely aligned with the input and output of its modelling tools, so that models can be re-calibrated as rainfall patterns and inflows change, affecting both water quality and yield. Monitoring of extreme events (both very low and very high flows) will be reviewed and integrated with improved modelling capabilities to improve model calibrations at the extremes and to better inform the assessment of climate impacts. There will be increased emphasis on event-based sampling possibly offset by reduced effort in routine sampling. 5.2 Water quantity Key vulnerabilities • • • • Decreased system yield affecting both reliability and security. Increase in flow variability across storages. Lower inflows into Warragamba Dam and Tallowa Dam in Shoalhaven. More inflows into Metropolitan storages (Avon, Cataract, Cordeaux, Nepean and Woronora dams). Total catchment yield is likely to decrease due to higher evapo-transpiration and increased soil moisture deficit, as well as increased local interception of runoff by landowners expanding their use of farm dams and groundwater bores. Evaporation will be an increasingly important consideration. Changes in rainfall distribution could lower inflows into Warragamba and place increasing dependence on the Metropolitan storages. Higher temperatures and extended droughts increase the risk of major water quality incidents in the storages (eg cyanobacterial bloom in Wingecarribee reservoir) and will require more flexibility around alternate supplies and transfer options if individual storages are taken off-line for extended periods. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 16 The SCA has a range of tools to assist the assessment and planning of water supply options under a wide range of scenarios. Wathnet system modelling enables the efficient assessment of alternate future scenarios, depletion projections and yield risk studies. Deep water pumping stations and groundwater readiness have been extended as part of the MWP. A case for expansion of the capacity through replacement of the Upper Canal is being developed and other transfer options are being considered as part of strategic supply planning. Climate Change Action 4 – Increasing flexibility in the water supply system Corporate Sustainability key focus area: Reliable water Further opportunities for increasing supply flexibility across the system will be investigated including enhanced transfer capabilities, and/or greater local storage (surface water, groundwater and potentially abandoned mines) in the Metropolitan and Shoalhaven systems to maintain reliability of supply. 5.3 Water quality Key vulnerabilities • Higher frequency and/or intensity of extreme wet weather events increases the potential for large scale mobilisation and transport of pollutants to water supply offtakes. • More frequent or larger cyanobacterial blooms in storages. • Different cyanobacterial assemblage with potentially higher toxicity or taste and odour compounds. • Reduced resilience of aquatic ecosystems. • Potential destabilisation of lake ecosystems leading to tipping point in biological integrity and emergence of new dominant ‘pest’ species. • Bushfires and storms compromise water monitoring stations. Most climate change projections are indicating increased storm activity and high intensity rainfall in summer between extended dry periods. This is likely to result in more rapid and more extreme changes in water quality, and more complex behaviour shifts in reservoir hydrodynamics. Large, intense bushfires could result in large quantities of ash, phosphorous, nitrogen and organic matter being washed into storages if heavy rain fell within several weeks to a year after the fire. An increase in extreme wet weather events may result in an increased risk of major pollution incidents. The frequency or scale of cyanobacterial blooms in storages may also increase as a result of the combination of lower water levels and increased nutrient loading during extreme rainfall events and/or the mobilisation of nutrients from lake bed sediments. Changes in hydrodynamic or chemical conditions may also favour the emergence of new dominant cyanobacterial species with greater toxicity or taste and odour than previous blooms and would cause major problems with management and treatment. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 17 Monitoring of extreme events (both very low and very high flows) has always been challenging. Existing SCA monitoring programs (water quality, hydrometric and meteorological) are not optimised for measuring shorter duration and sporadic rainfall events. Higher temperature and more severe storms would likely lead to an increase in the number and complexity of declared incidents. Concurrent incidents or cascading failures of key infrastructure would challenge the SCA’s operating procedures and organisational resilience. Climate changes are also likely to have a broad impact on catchment condition and stream health, and on regional development patterns and associated land use changes, and on the management practices adopted within existing land use categories. These will all ultimately impact on the relative contributions of pollutants across the different sources. They may also confound the evaluation of the impact of land uses and the interventions implemented through the Healthy Catchments Strategy. It will be more difficult to assess the impact of catchment interventions when water quality observations are confounded by changes in climate, and more sophisticated modelling and evaluation techniques will be required. The water supply system already provides management options to handle water quality challenges such as offtake selection, system transfers, alternate sources, on-line access to hydrodynamic and water quality data and limited event modelling capability. The SCA’s incident response and scenario-based contingency plans are reasonably comprehensive. Research and investigations into the cause and behaviour of water quality events continues to aid management preparedness and the identification of suitable responses. Research into the causes and effects of water quality incidents associated with extreme wet weather is being given priority at the SCA and nationally, through Water Quality Research Australia (WQRA). The SCA is also a partner in an Australian Research Council linkage project at the University of New South Wales which is investigating the impact of climate change in SCA’s Special Areas. Climate Change Action 5 – Improving capacity to monitor short-duration events Corporate Sustainability key focus area: Reliable water Monitoring of extreme events (both very low and very high flows) will become a major focus of future monitoring and research, particularly as this data is needed to help improve modelling capabilities and calibrations. 5.4 Environment Key vulnerabilities • Loss of wetlands, possibly permanent. • Potential destabilisation of peat swamp and mass in Wingecarribee Reservoir. • Deterioration of riparian corridors. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 18 • Reduced resilience of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems leads to irreversible changes to biological integrity and emergence of new dominant ‘pest’ species such as cyanobacteria, weed species and pest animals. • Less water for environmental flows. • Extended bushfire season with more intense fires. • Vegetation community could shift towards more drought-tolerant or fireresistant species. The natural environment provides a wide range of ecosystem services to protect water quality and base flow into streams. Changes in climate are likely to have a broad impact on both terrestrial and aquatic ecology, affecting catchment and stream health, biodiversity and environmental condition. There may also be secondary flow-on environmental implications from changes to SCA operations such as water transfer and environmental flows. The Healthy Catchments Strategy, including plans of management of Special Areas, State Environmental Planning Policy (Sydney Drinking Water Catchment) 2011 (SEPP), bushfire management, risk and operational plans are in place and are generally flexible enough to handle changes in catchment conditions. It will be increasingly difficult to differentiate between outcomes from active catchment intervention by the SCA and environmental and water quality changes caused by climate change. Increasingly, more sophisticated modelling and evidence-based evaluation tools will be required. The SCA should work closely with other agencies such as DECCW and research providers to improve assessment of ecological condition and environmental stressors. The ongoing development of knowledge relating to the impact of fire on water quality will need to be reflected in revisions to fire management policies. 5.5 Land use Key vulnerabilities • Changes in land use (eg crop and grazing type and intensity) and retirement of marginal land, displaced communities. • Increase in local water extraction (groundwater and surface water). • Inadequate stormwater design in townships and sewage treatment plants (point source pollutants). • Increase of diffuse source pollutants. • Increased understanding of the role of bio-sequestration (both in improving soil carbon content and revegetation) in carbon markets will open opportunities for landowners and the SCA in alternative land uses. The demographics and makeup of local communities are likely to change as existing agriculture becomes less viable and hobby farms and retirement acreage increase, particularly along the Sydney-Goulburn growth corridor. This demand on local water supplies, combined with a possible increase in the number and size of farm dams and local retention structures to offset reduced rainfall in inland areas, will decrease the runoff into streams and SCA reservoirs. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 19 Modules within the Healthy Catchments Strategy should incorporate new climate scenarios and projections as they become available. These include the Neutral or Beneficial Effect (NorBE) toolkit, the Strategic Land and Water Capability Assessment (SLWCA), and the Catchment Decision Support System (CDSS), as well as rural land use guidelines and recommended best management practices, Sewage Treatment Plan (STP) design, and CMA incentives. It would be beneficial to upgrade SCA monitoring programs (water quality, hydrometric and meteorological) so that they can measure shorter duration and sporadic rainfall events, and models improved to better understand the impact of changing land use and climate. The SCA should be proactive in identifying and encouraging new practices that improve water quality, but not at the expense of runoff and yield. The SCA could potentially expand its Current Recommended Practice (CRP) program. Climate Change Action 6 – Reviewing strategies and plans for sensitivity to climate change scenarios Corporate Sustainability key focus area: Reliable water Climate change will be explicitly considered in future revisions of the Healthy Catchments Strategy. Decision support tools such as the CDSS, the NorBE toolkit, and the plans of management for the Special Areas will all need to recognize and be adaptable to the progressive changes in climate, catchment response and land use patterns. 5.6 Infrastructure Key vulnerabilities • More intense storms, high winds and lightning, higher temperatures and increased bushfire weather. Critical system failure for dams, pumping stations, control structures and other facilities (eg on-site power supplies, control systems, communications, actuators, pumps, water monitoring stations and radio telemetry assets). • Flood, water or hail damage to SCA infrastructure (including telemetry and communications systems). • Water supply infrastructure not suited to changed inflow patterns. • Flood design based on Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) estimates inadequate. • Debris in gates and offtakes, weir failure. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 20 A change in rainfall patterns and more severe storm events could impact a wide range of SCA infrastructure, including critical control systems at dams, pumping stations, control structures, monitoring and telecommunications systems. More frequent and/or higher intensity bushfires can also threaten infrastructure. Regulatory requirements for dams and weirs are likely to be reviewed and revised under climate change with potential infrastructure implications. The SCA’s water transfer system could be challenged by two potential impacts of climate change: • A change in rainfall patterns (eg higher rainfall in metropolitan catchments) could create increased reliance on the Upper Canal or its replacement for SCA supply to greater Sydney and/or increased transfer volumes between Metropolitan dams. • Increased competition from desalination and increased supply from the Metropolitan Dams could affect SCA water transfer operations to Prospect using the Warragamba Pipeline which is currently constrained by minimum flow requirements. An anticipated increase in climatic extremes will put stress on telecommunication infrastructure that supports data collection systems. More intense bushfires could result in failure of critical systems at dams, pumping stations and control structures. A change in rainfall patterns and more severe storm events could impact a wide range of SCA infrastructure, including critical systems at dams, pumping stations, control structures and telecommunication systems. More frequent bushfire weather and high-intensity bushfires would have flow-on effects to water quality, yield and damage to infrastructure. The design specifications of critical infrastructure should be reviewed and the vulnerability of telecommunication links and critical monitoring sites assessed. Regulatory requirements for dams and weirs could be altered under climate change. Further modeling of probable maximum floods under revised climate models would assist in planning upgrades or changes to operating regimes such as pre-release in advance of flood. Design specifications are subject to regular review, and many critical system components incorporate redundancy and are considered in contingency planning. Improved emphasis on resilience to extreme events would be beneficial. Dams and weirs meet current regulatory requirements based on historical estimates of peak flood and rainfall intensity. Contingency response plans, condition monitoring and early warning systems are in place. There is some duplication of communications systems and backup generators. Climate Change Action 7 – Reviewing design specifications of existing critical infrastructure Corporate Sustainability key focus Area: Reliable water A forward program for the review of design specifications of existing infrastructure, plant and equipment will be developed to assess vulnerability to extreme events such as storms, fires and floods. Scenario testing of critical infrastructure, vulnerability assessment and increasing redundancy at critical sites will also be undertaken where appropriate. Detailed modelling of demand/supply options and further modelling of probable maximum floods will be considered to assist in planning upgrades or changes to operating regimes such as pre-release in advance of a flood. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 21 5.7 Supply chain Key vulnerabilities • Inability to supply sufficient water to customers as per agreements. • Inability to meet water quality parameters in water supply agreements – impact on filtration plants, public health, customer confidence and complaints. • Changes in customer demand due to changes in population distribution and consumption (see also Water Quantity). • Increased electricity costs impact upstream and downstream businesses. • Decreased reliability of electricity supply (more blackouts) impact ability to transfer water. Changes in climatic conditions and government pressure to reduce carbon emissions are likely to have upstream and downstream impacts on the SCA, in terms of suppliers of goods and services to the SCA as well as the delivery of water to its customers. Some of these changes will create new or modified risks to the SCA while others will present opportunities. To respond to these challenges and opportunities, the SCA will need to further utilise or expand its existing range of operating protocols and formal and informal processes for regular communication with customers, suppliers and other stakeholders, liaison through government networks, flexible water transfer and configuration, MWP forecasting, and incident management. The ability of the SCA to supply water through gravity feed and the use of back-up generators for control systems insulates the SCA from electricity disruptions to some degree, but there is a need to expand the use of standalone electricity generation and re-engineer some key systems for manual/ analogue control. Increased frequency and severity of storms and extreme events could potentially disrupt service delivery of critical items such as diesel fuel, power supplies and subsequently other services. There is a need to improve understanding of supply chain vulnerabilities. An increased emphasis on the formal assessment of vulnerability of goods and service providers to energy disruptions and other outages/unavailability of critical requirements would be beneficial in response to climate change as well as other external forces outside of the SCA’s direct control such as population growth and distribution. 5.8 Business Key vulnerabilities • Difficulty in matching supply to demand. • Loss of sales quantity with resultant changes to revenue, expenditure, dividends and finance costs. • Decreased public confidence in SCA to deliver reliable quality water. • Increase in disruption and number of declared incidents (eg floods, declared droughts, algal blooms); concurrent incidents. • Decision support tools are not able to predict climate change impacts on SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 22 future plans and options. • Communication systems, SCADA compromised (see also Infrastructure). • Business investments are sub-optimal under a changed climate. Climate change has a range of implications on revenue from water sales, capital expenditure and pumping costs, as well as on competition from alternative water sources such as desalination. Impacts on supply and water quality will increase the need to justify expenditure and put pressure on revenues, with flow-on effects to SCA’s negotiations with regulators and ratings agencies. Variability in system yield could be offset by alternative financial instruments and forward sales contracts to manage price risk. Financial impacts could be mitigated by more sophisticated economic modelling, alternative finance options such as insurance for unanticipated pumping costs and alternate business models to enable greater diversification and flexibility in supply. There is a need to improve incident management capability, business continuity plans, workforce adaptive capacity and multi-skilling of staff for workplace flexibility. The SCA might also consider expanding its role in the delivery of alternate (out of catchment) water supply schemes. Climate change impacts on water supply and water quality will increase the need to justify project design and expenditure. Business cases for new project proposals currently include sustainability criteria, but not climatic assumptions or sensitivities. Climate Change Action 8 – Building explicit consideration of climate change into new business initiatives and project designs Corporate Sustainability key focus area: Business viability Enhanced workforce flexibility and organisational resilience will be developed. Incident response plans will be expanded to address a broader range of scenarios and the disruptive risks through improved continuity and disaster recovery planning. Attention to incident management, business continuity management and disaster recovery planning will be increased. Other response options will be explored including forward sales contracts and alternative financial instruments to manage price and supply risk, improving workforce adaptive capacity and responsiveness through up-skilling and cultural change. In the future all SCA business cases, which are already required to include sustainability criteria, will be required to address climate related risks and demonstrate their potential to improve business resilience. Business cases will also explore alternative funding options and economic models. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 23 A change in climate would have fundamental implications for SCA business, affecting sales, competition, customer satisfaction and community confidence. Climate change is becoming increasingly reflected in government policy with resultant impacts on carbon pricing, renewable energy targets and electricity and fuel costs. Improved modelling of the impact of climate scenarios and close collaboration with external agencies and ongoing review of adaptation plans is essential. Higher temperature and more severe storms would likely lead to an increase in the number and complexity of declared incidents. Concurrent incidents or cascading failures of key infrastructure would challenge operating procedures and organisational resilience. Increased attention to climate change in supply planning, system modelling, Independant Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) negotiations, Corporate Sustainability Strategy, business continuity management and disaster recovery plans is warranted. Climate Change Action 9 – Increasing preparedness to manage concurrent incidents Corporate Sustainability key focus area: Business viability While the SCA’s incident response and scenario based contingency planning are reasonably comprehensive, increased attention will be paid to incident management, business continuity and disaster recovery planning. This will also consider the potential for improved workforce adaptive capacity and responsiveness through up skilling and cultural exchange. Key vulnerabilities • Unable to meet customer demand due to reduced inflows to storages. • Change in function and ownership of the SCA. • DECCW – changes to the Special Areas Strategic Plan of Management (SASPoM), bushfire management, licensed polluter compliance, climate science program, open or closed catchments. • Regulators (IPART and others) – increased pressure to quantify impacts and justify expenditure on climate impacts. • Department of Health - revisions to Australian Drinking Water Guidelines; Water Quality Characteristics. Changes in security of supply, water source management and water quality resulting from climate change could impact on public confidence in the SCA’s ability to deliver reliable quality water. An inability to meet water quality parameters could impact on public confidence in the SCA’s ability to deliver reliable quality water. Longer drought periods, elevated temperatures and sporadic periods of heavy rain could result in breaches of supply agreements with customers, requiring re-negotiation and amendments to relevant legislation and supply agreements. Longer term, climate change SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 24 impacts on water quality could be less of a problem than quantity, because a wider range of control measures (source and offtake selection) and the ability of customers to upgrade treatment plants. Impacts on supply and water quality will increase the need to justify expenditure and put pressure on revenues, which in turn will flow through to SCA’s negotiations with regulators and ratings agencies. SCA has strong relationships with stakeholders and regulators, at both policy and operational levels. The Water for Life program, coordinated between Sydney Water, the SCA, the NSW Office of Water and DECCW, provides effective public outreach, but could be more proactive in educating the public on alternative water sources that may be considered in the future. The SCA works closely with Industry & Investment NSW with its rural and grazing outreach programs. The legislative and regulatory frameworks that define expectations of the SCA are based on historically achievable values of water quantity and quality supplied from Sydney’s drinking water catchments and reservoirs. Climate change will increasingly influence relationships with external agencies, in particular DECCW through its CCAP, public lands management and science programs. NSW Health will continue to play a key role in revisions to the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and emerging health risks. Climate Change Action 10 – Improving communication and knowledge exchange on climate change Corporate Sustainability key focus area: Industry Excellence New or expanded outreach programs will be developed to manage community expectations of water quality and supply issues. At the same time adaptations to climate change will be included in catchment development controls and best management practices. Those responsible for their implementation, such as local councils and landholders, will be kept informed and assisted to adjust their activities and decisions in response to climate change impacts. To avoid the impact of climate change on catchment communities and landowners putting additional pressure on the SCA’s role in planning, incentives and compliance, tools such as CDSS, NorBE, SLWCA, stormwater and onsite waste system models will be regularly upgraded to reflect changing or more variable climate. Education and outreach programs and close liaison with local government and the Department of Planning will drive the required changes. Pre-treatment at high-risk sites and re-negotiation of the acceptable range of water quality parameters with water filtration plant operators will be explored as possible response options. Opportunities for public education and outreach on relative health risks of different water sources, the management of community expectations and improved public preparedness for possible water quality incidents will be explored. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 25 6 Conclusion The climate change impact assessment conducted by the SCA in 2010 found that overall, the SCA has a high degree of preparedness for addressing many of the potential impacts of climate change. The climate futures used in this assessment were based on recent climate projections covering SCA catchment areas, and involved two future climate scenarios with higher temperatures and more variable rainfall. The assessment emphasised the complexity of the interrelations between water quantity, water quality and catchment condition, and highlighted the potential impacts of climate change on SCA operations, infrastructure, business and regulation. The assessment identified and prioritised potential climate change impacts on the SCA, identified current activities or controls that partially mitigate the impacts, and developed a range of responses that could be considered in the future. These responses include identifying a number of business areas where improved planning, additional investment and back-up systems could assist in building the SCA’s adaptive capacity and business resilience. The findings of this climate change impact assessment have been built into the SCA’s business planning as part of the Corporate Sustainability Strategy that provides the SCA’s strategic direction for the next five years. Projections of future climate have large uncertainties because current models are unable to capture the complexity of feedback mechanisms in the earthatmosphere-hydrosphere system. Although the science of climate modelling is rapidly improving, models and projections at best present a range of possible futures to consider in scenario and business planning. Such known uncertainty requires the SCA to be adaptable to rapid change and apply ongoing sustainable and flexible business practices to ensure resilience to changes in climate and other external forces. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 26 References Abbs, D (in prep). Impact of climate variability and climate change on rainfall extremes in Western Sydney and surrounding areas: Draft report for the Upper Parramatta River Catchment Trust. CSIRO, 2007a. Climate change in Australia: CSIRO Technical Report 2007, <http://www.csiro.au/resources/Climate-Change-Technical-Report-2007. html>. CSIRO, 2007b, Climate change in NSW catchments, series of reports to the NSW Government, <www.environment.nsw.gov.au/climateChange/nswreports. htm>. DECCW in prep, NSW Climate Impact Profile: The impacts of climate change on the biophysical environment of New South Wales, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, Sydney. Hennessy KJ, Page CM, McInnes KL, Jones RN, Bathols JM, Collins D, Jones D. 2004a. Climate change in New South Wales. Part 1: Past climate variability and projected changes in average climate/Consultancy report for the New South Wales Greenhouse Office. 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Climate change impacts on water supply and demand in Sydney (Sydney water balance project): NSW Office of Water in collaboration with the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, the Department of Environment Climate Change and Water, Sydney Water Corporation, Sydney Catchment Authority, University of New South Wales and CSIRO. Steffen, W, 2009, Climate change 2009: Faster change and more serious risks: Department of Climate Change, <http://www.climatechange.gov.au/ publications/science/faster-change-more-risk.aspx>. SWC, 2008, Sydney Water infrastructure and operations climate change risk assessment: Sydney Water Corporation, Dec 2008. SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 27 Acronyms SCA Climate Change Impact Assessment 2010 28 ARR Australian Rainfall and Runoff CCAP Climate Change Action Plan CMA Catchment Management Authority CRP Current Recommended Practices CDSS SCA’s Catchment Decision Support System CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation DECCW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation IPART Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MWP Metropolitan Water Plan NorBE Neutral or beneficial effect on water PMF Probable Maximum Flood SAM Southern Annual Mode SASPoM Special Areas Strategic Plan of Management SCA Sydney Catchment Authority SCARMS SCA’s Reservoir Management System SEPP State Environmental Planning Policy (Sydney Drinking Water Catchment) 2011 SLWCA Strategic Land and Water Capability Assessment STP Sewage treatment plant WQRA Water Quality Research Australia Contact information Sydney Catchment Authority Penrith Office Sydney Catchment Authority Level 4, 2-6 Station Street Penrith NSW 2750 Telephone + 61 2 4724 2200 1300 SCA GOV (1300 722 468) Fax + 61 2 4725 2599 Office hours 8.30am to 5pm Monday to Friday Website www.sca.nsw.gov.au Email [email protected] © Sydney Catchment Authority © State of New South Wales through the Sydney Catchment Authority, 2010. This work may be freely reproduced and distributed for most purposes, however some restrictions apply. See the copyright notice on www.sca.nsw. gov.au or contact the SCA on 1300 722 468. ISBN 978-1-876951-52-8