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from the expected net present value rule, which ignores learning, and from real option models that allow only one way
conversions into energy crops. These models also predict drastically different patterns of land conversions into and out of energy
crops over time. Using corn-soybean rotations and switchgrass as examples, we show that the model predictions are sensitive to
assumptions about stochastic processes of the returns. Government policies might have unintended consequences: subsidizing
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Real options; Irreversibility; Sunk costs; Land conversion; Biofuel; Cellulosic biomass; Dynamic modeling;
Stochastic process; Biofuel policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42;
Ano: 2009
Prediction model of total farmland under the condition of unbalanced economic growth
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,
Xiao-yuan; Chen,
Xiao-zhu; Zhang,
The aim of this paper is to discuss the prediction method of the total farmland demand combining with the land utilization status
and planning practice. [Method] We use the multiple regression prediction method and time series prediction method. [Result] By
applying the data of farmland comprehensive production capacity, population development, changes of arable land, fixed assets
investment and so on in Bijie Area, we have established the prediction models of total farmland demand, and determined the
optimum model as the prediction proposal of total farmland in Bijie Area through evaluation and explanation. [Conclusion] The
prediction proposal is compared with the "shadow index" of Bijie Area, which is instructed by the macro-control of Guizhou
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Total farmland; Shadow index; Unbalanced economy; China; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Land
Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rose,
Dietmar W.; Husain,
Syed A.
Sharply increasing timber prices in Minnesota reflect an imbalance in the ageclass distribution of the cover types that are most
important to the forest industry. This paper examines the potential contributions that short-rotation forest crops grown on
marginal agricultural lands can make in producing biomass for wood-base power plants and in supplying wood to the forest
industry. A large-scale regional scheduling model was used to allocate forest and agricultural lands in order to minimize wood
production costs for forest industry as well as power plant uses. Alternative potential sites for a wood-based power plant were
examined in terms of wood production costs and of transportation implications. Preliminary recommendations as to the most
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Wood energy; Short-rotation forestry; Agricultural tree production; Timber supply costs; Harvest scheduling;
Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1998