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Oslo, September 1, 2009 Mr. Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General The United Nations S-3800, United Nations, New York, N.Y. 10017, USA Ambition is needed! Three key areas for a successful outcome in Copenhagen Dear Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, The outcome of the Copenhagen climate talks will determine the future of the Arctic wilderness that you have visited over the last days. But achieving a strong and equitable climate agreement at the COP 15 in Copenhagen, is, as You are acutely aware of, critical to much more than snow and ice. It is about the future of millions and millions of people already affected or under threat from dangerous anthropogenic climate change. Stopping climate change is crucial to achieve justice between generations, peoples and the global North and South. Negotiations on the outcome in Copenhagen are already well underway. The last meetings under the UNFCCC has clearly shown that there is a dramatic lack of ambition on the part of political leaders in the industrialized countries. We would like to point out to you three key areas where increased ambition is urgently needed in order to achieve a successful outcome in Copenhagen. We count on your leadership to help bring about the political will that is needed. 1. Emission reduction commitments by rich, industrialized countries are far too low The IPCC estimates that industrialized countries will have to reduce their total emissions by 25-40 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020 in order to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm. Recent science indicates that in order to keep global temperature rise below 2˚C compared to pre-industrial levels, greenhouse gas concentrations will have to be even lower. Annex I countries committed to the 2˚C goal should therefore work towards a reduction of at least 40 per cent by 2020. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Adresse: Miljøhuset Grensen 9 B, 0159 Oslo – Telefon: +47 23 10 96 10 – Faks: +47 23 10 96 11 E-post: [email protected] – Internett: www.naturvern.no – Bank: 7874.05.56001 – Org nr: 938 418 837 In August this year, the secretariat of the UNFCCC published an estimate of total emission reductions in the industrialized countries that have so far indicated a specific reduction target for 2020. According to the UNFCCC secretariat, total emission reductions with current targets will be somewhere between 13 and 21 % from 1990 levels in 2020.1 If the targets included in the climate legislation currently being discussed in the US is taken into account, the numbers would be even lower.2 Analysis done by the Alliance of Small Island States suggests total reduction targets in industrialized countries might be as low as 10-16 %.3 In other words: Current emission goals are nowhere near what the IPCC says is needed. A recent Nature article concludes that current emission goals gives an almost 100 % certainty of exceeding 2˚C warming, with a likely temperature rise of 3-4 degrees.4 The emission goals of industrialized countries also fall short of what developing countries are asking for in the negotiations. The Group of 77 and China has asked for a 40 % reduction in Annex I countries by 2020, and the Alliance of Small Island States, with a significant number of Least Developed Countries, is asking for a reduction of 45 %. Unless current emission reduction goals by industrialized countries are increased significantly, there might not be any deal to seal in Copenhagen. Hence, a way must be found so that political leaders of the industrialized countries significantly increase their emission reduction targets at the climate summit in New York City, September 22. 2. No clear commitment from rich countries to finance mitigation and adaptation in the developing world The Bali Action Plan, which lays out the mandate for negotiations towards Copenhagen, puts the main obligation of financing climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in developing countries on the industrialized world. But so far, there has been no clear recognition from rich countries of the scale of finance that is needed, let alone a promise to deliver it. The European Commission has estimated a need of at least US$ 100 billion a year for emission reduction measures in the developing world. This includes mitigation in the energy and industry sectors, reducing emissions from deforestation (REDD) and more.5 In addition to this, anywhere between US$ 50 and 100 billion – maybe even significantly more – will be needed every year for adaptation measures.6 See informal note distributed by the UNFCCC secretariat during the latest informal climate talks in Bonn According to World Resources Institute, H.R. 2454 emission caps only will reduce US emissions by around 1 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020. See http://www.wri.org/publication/usclimatetargets 3 See informal note distributed by AOSIS during the latest informal climate talks in Bonn 4 See http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0907/full/climate.2009.57.html 5 See the European Commission Staff Working Document accompanying the Communication ‘Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen’. SEC(2009) 101, http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/future_action.htm 6 Estimates of annual needs for adaptation finance vary from as low as US$ 10-40 bn (World Bank estimate) to as high as US$ 100 bn (Christian Aid UK report), with an average around US$ 60 bn. A recent 1 2 As long as there is no clear signal from the industrialized world that sufficient financial resources will be provided, it is understandable that developing countries are unwilling to discuss which specific nationally appropriate mitigation actions they can take to reduce emissions. The missing financial commitment from rich countries is one of the main reasons for the current logjam in the negotiations. Rich, industrialized countries should use the opportunities provided by the UNGA climate summit in New York City and the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Pittsburgh to acknowledge that at least US$ 160 billion will be needed every year in public finance for climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. 3. The risk of "double counting" emission reductions and climate finance The science clearly shows that, in addition to a reduction of 25-40 % below 1990 levels in the industrialized countries by 2020, considerable emission reductions are also needed in developing countries. The necessary financial resources for mitigation measures in the developing world must therefore be provided in addition to rich countries meeting their emission reduction commitments. Some industrialized countries have expressed a preference for counting money used to purchase carbon credits to fulfil their emission reduction commitments, towards their financial obligations as well. This would create a system of "double counting", and would lead to significantly lower total emission reductions than what science tells us is needed. Climate finance must be delivered by rich countries in addition to any money spent on purchasing offset credits, and in addition to existing Official Development Aid (ODA) obligations. We trust that your Excellency will bring the message about the melting ice of the Arctic to the meeting table at the UNGA climate summit that you are hosting in New York City, September 22. We ask you to use that opportunity to point out the three key issues outlined above, and to underline the dire need and importance of increased ambition that is needed to solve these crucial issues. The outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations (COP 15), and the future of people all over the globe, particularly those most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, requires that the rich industrialized world now steps up to its responsibility. Sincerely Yours, Mr Lars Haltbekken Chairman IIED report, however, warns that all estimates produced so far dramatically underestimate the real costs of adaptation. See http://www.iied.org/pubs/pdfs/11501IIED.pdf