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Oslo, September 1, 2009
Mr. Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General
The United Nations
S-3800, United Nations,
New York, N.Y. 10017, USA
Ambition is needed! Three key areas for a successful outcome in Copenhagen
Dear Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon,
The outcome of the Copenhagen climate talks will determine the future of the Arctic
wilderness that you have visited over the last days. But achieving a strong and equitable
climate agreement at the COP 15 in Copenhagen, is, as You are acutely aware of, critical to
much more than snow and ice. It is about the future of millions and millions of people already
affected or under threat from dangerous anthropogenic climate change. Stopping climate
change is crucial to achieve justice between generations, peoples and the global North and
South.
Negotiations on the outcome in Copenhagen are already well underway. The last meetings
under the UNFCCC has clearly shown that there is a dramatic lack of ambition on the part of
political leaders in the industrialized countries. We would like to point out to you three key
areas where increased ambition is urgently needed in order to achieve a successful outcome in
Copenhagen. We count on your leadership to help bring about the political will that is needed.
1. Emission reduction commitments by rich, industrialized countries are far too low
The IPCC estimates that industrialized countries will have to reduce their total emissions by
25-40 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020 in order to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at
450 ppm. Recent science indicates that in order to keep global temperature rise below 2˚C
compared to pre-industrial levels, greenhouse gas concentrations will have to be even lower.
Annex I countries committed to the 2˚C goal should therefore work towards a reduction of at
least 40 per cent by 2020.
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In August this year, the secretariat of the UNFCCC published an estimate of total emission
reductions in the industrialized countries that have so far indicated a specific reduction target
for 2020. According to the UNFCCC secretariat, total emission reductions with current targets
will be somewhere between 13 and 21 % from 1990 levels in 2020.1 If the targets included in
the climate legislation currently being discussed in the US is taken into account, the numbers
would be even lower.2 Analysis done by the Alliance of Small Island States suggests total
reduction targets in industrialized countries might be as low as 10-16 %.3
In other words: Current emission goals are nowhere near what the IPCC says is needed. A
recent Nature article concludes that current emission goals gives an almost 100 % certainty of
exceeding 2˚C warming, with a likely temperature rise of 3-4 degrees.4 The emission goals of
industrialized countries also fall short of what developing countries are asking for in the
negotiations. The Group of 77 and China has asked for a 40 % reduction in Annex I countries
by 2020, and the Alliance of Small Island States, with a significant number of Least
Developed Countries, is asking for a reduction of 45 %.
Unless current emission reduction goals by industrialized countries are increased
significantly, there might not be any deal to seal in Copenhagen. Hence, a way must be found
so that political leaders of the industrialized countries significantly increase their emission
reduction targets at the climate summit in New York City, September 22.
2. No clear commitment from rich countries to finance mitigation and adaptation in the
developing world
The Bali Action Plan, which lays out the mandate for negotiations towards Copenhagen, puts
the main obligation of financing climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in
developing countries on the industrialized world. But so far, there has been no clear
recognition from rich countries of the scale of finance that is needed, let alone a promise to
deliver it.
The European Commission has estimated a need of at least US$ 100 billion a year for
emission reduction measures in the developing world. This includes mitigation in the energy
and industry sectors, reducing emissions from deforestation (REDD) and more.5 In addition to
this, anywhere between US$ 50 and 100 billion – maybe even significantly more – will be
needed every year for adaptation measures.6
See informal note distributed by the UNFCCC secretariat during the latest informal climate talks in Bonn
According to World Resources Institute, H.R. 2454 emission caps only will reduce US emissions by
around 1 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020. See http://www.wri.org/publication/usclimatetargets
3 See informal note distributed by AOSIS during the latest informal climate talks in Bonn
4 See http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0907/full/climate.2009.57.html
5 See the European Commission Staff Working Document accompanying the Communication ‘Towards a
comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen’. SEC(2009) 101,
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/future_action.htm
6 Estimates of annual needs for adaptation finance vary from as low as US$ 10-40 bn (World Bank
estimate) to as high as US$ 100 bn (Christian Aid UK report), with an average around US$ 60 bn. A recent
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As long as there is no clear signal from the industrialized world that sufficient financial
resources will be provided, it is understandable that developing countries are unwilling to
discuss which specific nationally appropriate mitigation actions they can take to reduce
emissions. The missing financial commitment from rich countries is one of the main reasons
for the current logjam in the negotiations.
Rich, industrialized countries should use the opportunities provided by the UNGA climate
summit in New York City and the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Pittsburgh to
acknowledge that at least US$ 160 billion will be needed every year in public finance for
climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries.
3. The risk of "double counting" emission reductions and climate finance
The science clearly shows that, in addition to a reduction of 25-40 % below 1990 levels in the
industrialized countries by 2020, considerable emission reductions are also needed in
developing countries. The necessary financial resources for mitigation measures in the
developing world must therefore be provided in addition to rich countries meeting their
emission reduction commitments.
Some industrialized countries have expressed a preference for counting money used to
purchase carbon credits to fulfil their emission reduction commitments, towards their
financial obligations as well. This would create a system of "double counting", and would
lead to significantly lower total emission reductions than what science tells us is needed.
Climate finance must be delivered by rich countries in addition to any money spent on
purchasing offset credits, and in addition to existing Official Development Aid (ODA)
obligations.
We trust that your Excellency will bring the message about the melting ice of the Arctic to the
meeting table at the UNGA climate summit that you are hosting in New York City,
September 22. We ask you to use that opportunity to point out the three key issues outlined
above, and to underline the dire need and importance of increased ambition that is needed to
solve these crucial issues. The outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations (COP 15), and the
future of people all over the globe, particularly those most vulnerable to the adverse effects of
climate change, requires that the rich industrialized world now steps up to its responsibility.
Sincerely Yours,
Mr Lars Haltbekken
Chairman
IIED report, however, warns that all estimates produced so far dramatically underestimate the real costs
of adaptation. See http://www.iied.org/pubs/pdfs/11501IIED.pdf