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PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND PREPARATION
* PIPELINE ENTRY AND PDF BLOCK B
SUBMISSION OF CONCEPT FOR
GEFSEC PROJECT ID:
IA/ExA PROJECT ID: P091979
COUNTRY: Kenya
PROJECT TITLE: Kenya – Adaptation to Climate
Change in Arid Lands (KACCAL)
GEF IA/ExA: The World Bank
OTHER PROJECT EXECUTING AGENCY(IES):
DURATION (PDF): 6 Months
GEF FOCAL AREA: Climate Change
SCCF PROGRAM: Adaptation
ESTIMATED STARTING DATE (PROJECT):
07/01/2007
ESTIMATED STARTING DATE (PDF, IF ANY):
11/15/2006
ESTIMATED WP ENTRY DATE: 12/01/2006
PIF APPROVAL DATE: 10/20/2006
FINANCING PLAN ($)
PDF
Project
A
SCCF
B
290,000
6,000,000
C
SCCF Total
290,000
6,000,000
Co-financing
GEF IA/ExA
Government
Co-financing
Total
Total
100,000
40,000,000
4,000,000
44,000,000
390,000
50,000,000
RECORD OF ENDORSEMENT ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT:
(Enter Name, Position, Ministry)
Date: (Month, day, year)
Forthcoming.
This proposal has been prepared in accordance with GEF policies and procedures and meets the
standards of the GEF Project Review Criteria for pipeline entry.
Project Contact Person
Christophe Crepin, Regional Coordinator
Tel: 1 202 473 9727
Email:[email protected]
Steve Gorman
GEF Executive Coordinator, World Bank
October 20, 2006
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PART I - PROJECT CONCEPT
A - PROJECT SUMMARY
Livelihoods and economic activities in Kenya’s are highly vulnerable to climatic
fluctuations in space and time. The country’s inland areas are largely arid with two thirds
of the country receiving less than 500 mm of rainfall per year, limiting the potential for
agriculture. In general inter-annual climate variability is high. Rainy seasons can be
extremely wet and associated with floods and landslides, but can also arrive late or fail,
introducing considerable uncertainty in agricultural practices. The rural poor are the most
vulnerable to the impacts of Kenya’s current climate variability.
The Kenya Arid Lands and Resource Management Project (ALRMP), which is currently
in its second phase, represents a long-term operation to enhance food-security and reduce
livelihood vulnerability in drought-prone and marginalized communities. This baseline
project supports a Community Driven Development (CDD) mechanism and promotes an
enabling environment for development in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs)
through policy support advocacy and improvement in the delivery of essential services
and strengthening the management of natural capital to reduce the impact of natural
shocks. The ALRMP has focused on the reduction of the acute vulnerabilities. It has not
included a systematic treatment of the medium to long-term implications of climate
change. In recognition of this situation, the proposed SCCF project “Kenya-Adaptation to
Climate Change in Arid Lands” (KACCAL) is focused on strengthening Kenya’s
capacity to comprehensively reduce the vulnerability of rural livelihoods in arid areas to
climate variability and change.
Over recent years, consecutive rain failures have sparked debate whether this situation is
already a finger print of climate change. A recent analysis of climate models suggests that
the average annual temperature is likely to increase by 2.5-3 ˚C, but there is also the
possibility that warming could be as high as 5 ˚C. In conjunction with demographic
pressures and environmental degradation, this warming trend implies further stress on
Kenya’s water resources due to increased evapo-transpiration. Rainfall projections
display considerable uncertainty, with models showing increases as well as decreases.
While an increase is generally suggested from September to May, the projections are
particularly unclear for the remainder of the year. Simulations have suggested increases
as well as substantial decreases in precipitation. Of concern are possible decreases in the
arid eastern and northern regions of Kenya. Furthermore, in conjunction with the
warming trend an increased likelihood of intense precipitation events associated with
floods has to be considered.
There is also increasing scientific evidence that climate change will alter the magnitude
and frequency of El Nino Southern Oscillation extremes. El Nino and La Nina events
exert an influence on the climatic characteristics of the country. While increased rainfall
during the 1997/98 El Nino yielded some positive effects, such as improved pastures for
livestock productivity, extreme precipitation and changes in the moisture profile were
also associated with negative impacts for water resources. Some estimates suggest that
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the costs of the 1997/98 event amount to US$ 9 million in the water resource sector and
to about US$ 236 million in the agricultural sector.
In summary, climate change introduces an additional uncertainty into managing natural
resources and promoting sustainable land-use management. An increased variability
between extremely dry and wet conditions, shifts in seasonal climate characteristics as
well as associated effects on extreme events and vector borne diseases place an additional
strain on human health and food security, threaten water resources, and the viability of
rural livelihoods in already marginal lands.
In order to address these challenges the KACCAL focuses on supporting innovative
initiatives to diversify and improve long-term livelihoods by engaging local communities
and the private sector as well as on strengthening the institutional and technical capacity
to manage current and future climate risks across scales. The project will take the
following approach:
1. At the local level, emphasis is placed on reducing the existing adaptation deficit
revealed by current climate hazards that frequently translate into disasters. This is to be
achieved by strengthening efforts to make early warning and seasonal climate forecasts
accessible to vulnerable stakeholders in ASALs, while also strengthening their capacity
to act upon information through improvement of agricultural extension services and
training in natural resource management.
2. At the governance and institutional level, the project focuses on strengthening the link
between disaster risk management and climate change to ensure that development and
operational planning, policy processes, and incentive systems address existing
vulnerabilities, but also account for important climatic changes to avoid processes, which
are maladaptive in medium to long-term. In this context, efforts will focus on supporting
emerging development of partnerships and information sharing mechanisms, which bring
together technical, development and policy perspectives and are essential for establishing
a continuous economic framework for disaster and climate risk reduction.
3. While public sector support is important for strengthening climate risk management
within development processes, the project recognizes that long-term sustainability can
only be achieved through the inclusion of the private sector. It is also noted that the
additional burden of climate change will make some livelihoods unsustainable. Hence,
the project also focuses on opportunities for economic diversification to initiate a process
of providing Kenya’s rural population with alternative livelihood perspectives. The CDD
component will help strengthen the long-term perspective towards reducing climate
related risk in investment choices at the community level, and facilitate and support
micro-projects oriented towards mitigating that risk. The projects will also examine the
viability of insurance and micro-credit schemes for buffering rural livelihoods against
climatic shocks, while also linking such schemes to incentives for vulnerability reduction
in the near to medium term.
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B - COUNTRY OWNERSHIP
1. COUNTRY ELIGIBILITY
Kenya signed the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change on June
12th, 1992 and ratified it on August 30th, 1994. As a non-Annex-I party, Kenya is
therefore eligible to access Special Climate Change Fund resources.
2. COUNTRY DRIVENNESS
Kenya has been playing a prominent role in the climate change debate in Africa, starting
with the 1990 Nairobi Conference on Global Warming and Climate Change, which
resulted in the first significant declaration on climate change in Africa, and continuing to
this year, during which Kenya will host the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the
UNFCCC as well as the Second Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. In the
meantime, Kenya has submitted its Initial Communication to the UNFCCC and is
currently working on the second. The First National Communication of Kenya to the
COP of the UNFCCC emphasizes the critical importance of incorporating climate
variability in the country’s policies for various ecosystems. It highlights the need for
“making use of and improving existing technologies, and developing policies that make
climate sensitive sectors resilient to current climate variability”. It notes that livestock
and small-holder agriculture sectors are the most important areas as they are the dominant
livelihood source in the most vulnerable regions to climate change i.e. the ASALs and are
almost entirely dependent on rainfall. The report places significance on the need for
appropriate agricultural and livestock policies and action programs that will reduce
vulnerability in the ASALs, specifically laying out adaptation options in agriculture,
water and rangeland management towards mitigating the potential adverse impacts of
climate change.
In recent years, public and political concern about climate change has also been rising,
partly due to concerns about the recurrent droughts and flooding, and their severe socioeconomic consequences in almost all sectors, but also due to the rising international
importance placed on improving awareness of climate change, development and disasters
(including among others the G8 Gleneagles process and its follow-up World Bank’s
Framework on Clean Energy and Development, and efforts by UNISDR and other UN
agencies).
The Government acknowledges in its Economic Recovery Plan the special attention the
ASALs areas need in order to achieve poverty reduction noting that in relation to the
smallholder livestock sector there was a need to address problems of insecurity,
degradation of rangelands and poor access to water.
These concerns are reflected in the country’s national plans. Both the Poverty Reduction
Strategy Paper (PRSP) and the Kenya Rural Development Strategy discuss the
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importance of reducing risk and vulnerability for those Kenyans who rely on the natural
resource base for their livelihood. The need for development aimed at reducing this risk
is emphasized, through effective service delivery, drought early warning systems, an
improved natural resource and land use management system, and assistance in the
creation of more effective conflict resolution mechanisms. Moreover, during the PRSP
preparation, the pastoral thematic team highlighted the following priorities:
 Effective management of climate risks and improvement of household food security;
 Facilitation of income diversification through investments and through the
development of the livestock production sector;
 Improvement of livestock marketing opportunities;
 Employment creation;
 Management of insecurity and development of peace and harmonization measures
among the different ethnic groupings and along international borders.
These priorities would have to be addressed by incorporating a strategy of adaptation to
climate change risk to ensure sustained results over time.
C – PROGRAM AND POLICY CONFORMITY
1. FIT WITH SPECIAL FUND FOR CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY
The proposed project is highly consistent with the guidance for the Special Climate
Change Fund. According to UNFCCC decision 5/CP.9, addressing the adverse impacts of
climate change is the top priority for funding under the SCCF. The proposed project fits
several of the priority areas mentioned in the decision: water resources, land
management, agriculture, and fragile ecosystems. Furthermore, the proposed project fits
the decision’s support for “capacity building, including institutional capacity, for
preventive measures, planning, preparedness and management of disasters relating to
climate change, including contingency planning, in particular, for droughts and floods in
areas prone to extreme weather events”, and “strengthening existing and, where needed,
establishing national and regional centers and information networks for rapid response to
extreme weather events”.
2. FIT WITH NATIONAL STRATEGY
The proposed project also fits with the concerns of the First National Communication to
the UNFCCC published in 2002, which highlights the vulnerability of the ASALs of
Kenya, accounting for 80 percent of its lands. It further emphasizes the importance of the
livestock sector which is the dominant source of livelihood in this area and which
accounts for 26 percent of total national agricultural production. It supports both demand
side and supply side adaptive techniques in the water management. In general, it notes
that while reactive measures, including short-term adjustments in response to shocks do
happen, anticipatory adjustments have not been implemented satisfactorily. The National
communication recommends support for multi-disciplinarily and action-oriented studies
as well as to interventions that strengthen early warning signaling, diversify livelihood
options to ameliorate the impacts of adverse climactic events such as droughts and floods,
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implement rangeland and other resource rehabilitation priorities, develop land and land
use conflict mechanisms to maintain or increase the range of flexible operation and
strengthen partnerships for community implementation.
Kenya is currently preparing its second national communication, which is expected to
reflect the new evidence on climate impacts and the rising concerns addressed in the
proposed project.
Furthermore, the project is embedded in the long-running ALRMP, which is a successful
operation that has been supporting community driven development, drought mitigation
and decentralized planning in 28 ASAL districts, and consistent with the government’s
priorities with respect to poverty reduction and sustainable development, particularly in
the ASALs. Reducing the risk of climate variability and change on the impacts of these
programs, while at the same time strengthening national capacity for the coordination and
planning of climate risk management provides the most cost-effective way to minimize
the negative impacts of climate change on sustainable poverty alleviation.
The project will strengthen the capacity and support interventions to anticipate and adapt
to climate risks in specific vulnerable areas of the country, particularly by enhancing
climate risk management in the context of ongoing development investments (supported
by an IDA credit). It will, thus, generate benefits by alleviating rising risks to
development caused by the effects of climate change.
3. PROJECT DESIGN
a - Country Background
Kenya has great geographical diversity ranging from glaciated mountains with permanent
snow cover, through plateau areas to the coastal plain. The country is divided by the
Great Rift Valley into the West, which slopes down into Lake Victoria from the Mau
ranges and Mt. Elgon (4,300m), and the East, which is dominated by Mt. Kenya and the
Aberdare mountain ranges (5,200m and 4,000m). While the country has seven major
agro-ecological zones, only 17 percent has high potential quality soils and receives
enough rainfall to sustain three quarters of the population. 80 percent is classified as
ASALs. Rainfall is bi-modal, with long rains from March to May and short rains from
October to December. Annual rainfall ranges between 40 and 500 mm in the arid
districts, and between 400 and 1250 mm in the semi-arid districts (for administrative
purposes, the country is subdivided into 8 provinces and 70 districts). These areas are
among the most vulnerable to recurrent droughts, and to long-term climate change.
Weather- and climate-related hazards present a serious threat to the socio-economic
development of the country. Agriculture is the main sector of the Kenyan economy and
its performance strongly influences overall economic performance. Although livestock
production and small-scale agriculture are less important for the national economic
productivity, they are central to livelihoods in the ASALs and are highly affected.
Climate risks have thus a direct impact on poverty reduction efforts. Food insecurity is a
major problem, with malnutrition rates highest in the ASALs where there are acute
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malnutrition rates of over 15 percent in children under five, and up to 2-5 million people
can quickly become dependent on aid relief during major droughts.
The devastating consequences of Kenya’s droughts are partly a result of their frequency,
which has also not allowed sufficient time for recovery, but poor resource management
and low government investment in the ASALs have in the past exacerbated vulnerability
to weather-related hazards. Problems identified by the National Policy on Sustainable
Management of Arid and Semi Arid Lands (2005) include:
 Poor livestock marketing, health and movement control systems
 Increasing poverty which forces people into unsustainable practices, such as
deforestation and charcoal burning for economic survival
 Insecurity and conflicts arising due to lack of investment and marginalization,
especially for pastoral societies
 Inadequate provision of basic services
 Inadequate mechanisms for disaster management (e.g. provision of food aid rather
than long term solutions to food insecurity)
 Inadequate development of local human resources which leads to dependence on
external skills
 Poor local governance which weakens social structures and restricts social capital
development
 Macro-level problems such as corruption, mismanagement of public resources, poor
development and socio-economic policies.
The vicious cycle of disasters, poverty and vulnerability is severely affecting livelihoods
in ASALs. In some areas, these problems have been exacerbated by refugees and
localised conflicts related to armed conflict in neighbouring countries in the Horn of
Africa. Increased population and sedentary lifestyles have made pastoralists more
vulnerable to climate variability because grazing lands are settled or remain classified as
protected areas. The recent El Niño (1997-1998) and the heavy rains of 1999 and 2004
showed that those most affected by these natural occurrences are the poorer sectors of the
population living in slums and squatting along flood and landslide areas.
The development process has made some groups more vulnerable, as affluent farmers
erect fences and land sold off, reducing mobility during drought. Pastoralist livelihoods
have historically been marginalized, exacerbating vulnerability to extreme events and
conflict over water and grazing resources, including cattle raiding and invasion of
protected areas by herders. During drought, water systems dry up and the few local
wetlands are threatened, creating increased dependency on boreholes and traditional
technology in rural areas and conflicts between upstream and downstream river users.
Many have diversified and adopted farming, potentially becoming more vulnerable to
future disasters because they have abandoned options that provide mobility, diverse
coping mechanisms and increased the pressure on fragile semi-arid environments.
b - Rising risks related to climate change
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Climate models project for Kenya a substantial increase of up to 5 degrees Celsius in the
annual average temperature by the end of the Century in comparison to present day
conditions. Regardless of what will happen to average rainfall, projections suggest a
growing risk of both dry spells and intense precipitation events. In general, the region
from Lake Victoria to the central highlands east of the Rift Valley may experience
increases in annual rainfall, while regions in the arid east and north would experience
decreases. Indeed, over the last 50 years, rainfall means have been decreasing inland and
increasing on the coast. Kenya is affected by the El Niño phenomenon usually receiving
intense rainfalls in many areas. While this may help in some cropping systems extreme el
Niño events can cause heavy losses. Some estimates suggest that the costs of the 1997/98
event amount to US$ 9 million in the water resource sector and to about US$ 236 million
in the agricultural sector.
However, regardless of what will happen to average rainfall, projections suggest a
growing risk of both dry spells and intense precipitation events. Climate variability will
have key impacts in agriculture, food security, and human health, as well as, in
infrastructure related to transport, power and water sectors A series of droughts (e.g.
1984, 1990, 1994, 1999, 2001, 2004-6) has resulted in immense losses in resources with
aid relief being diverted from development. The consecutive rain failures in the past two
decades have prompted speculation that this is an early signal of climate change. The
2000/2001 and 2006 droughts were the worst in at least 60 years, and between these two
extreme years, several other rainy seasons have failed.
In addition, the unpredictability of Kenya’s rainfall and the tendency for it to fall heavily
during short periods are likely to intensify. This will exacerbate heavy rainfall periods
and flooding, which also pose a heavy burden on the Kenyan economy and particularly
the poorest people.
Besides direct impacts, increases in intensity, variability and frequency in either or both
flooding and drought will also reduce the country’s long-term ability to recover between
events. Given the dramatic impacts of current climate variability on Kenya’s economic
performance and the livelihoods of the poor, climate change poses severe threats to
sustainable economic development and poverty reduction1. While many sectors of the
Kenyan economy will be affected, the most significant impacts on the poor will
materialize through agriculture and livestock production, rural livelihoods and food
security, particularly in the ASALs.
As identified, e.g., in an ongoing research project “Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk
Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction”, which was supported by the European Commission on
behalf the inter-agency Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG). In the context of the
project three country case studies were carried out, including Kenya (Osbahr and Viner, 2006, forthcoming
publication).
1
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c - Rationale for World Bank and SCCF involvement
The increasing risks due to climate change severely affect Kenya, particularly through
rising risks of droughts and floods, with implications for the broad strategies for poverty
alleviation and economic development. The best way to address these risks is to enhance
climate risk management into ongoing government plans, programs and activities that are
affected by the rising risks of climate change. Kenya has identified the ASALs as the
most vulnerable areas to climate related risk. A key government planning and investment
program that is highly affected by these rising risks is the ALRMP. In the context of this
project, the World Bank has for many years been assisting the government of Kenya in
meeting development priorities and responding to drought related emergency support in
the ASALs. The ALRMP is highly successful, and well embedded institutionally, with a
home in the Office of the President and effective coordination mechanisms to the district
and community level. Hence, this baseline project is on the one hand clearly affected by
the rising risks of climate change, and on the other hand provides a very effective
delivery mechanism for the adaptation enhancements, which will not only help better
achieve the baseline project’s objectives under a changing climate, but also have a
positive impact well beyond the baseline project. The proposed SCCF project in Kenya
builds on that experience in mainstreaming climate risk management, but now in the
context of a much larger country, directly contributing to poverty reduction and
sustainable development, as well as to the Bank’s broader agenda of mainstreaming
climate risk management. Incremental SCCF resources will help embed a longer-term
perspective in planning and interventions at the local level while improving the
information chain between scientific climate related knowledge at one end anticipatory
responses at the local level at the other end, translating into a strategic adaptive response
to climate change risk.
This mainstreaming approach, which is a key cornerstone of the proposed project, fits
into both the Bank’s strategy on these issues (e.g. Burton and Van Aalst, 2004), as well as
the emerging international approach to adaptation to climate change (e.g. UNFCCC,
2005). The proposed project also fits the World Bank’s global commitment to scale up its
efforts to address new risks to development being posed by climate change, as expressed,
for instance, in the Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Sustainable
Development (World Bank, 2006), following the G8 Gleneagles Action Plan.
The project will also build on experiences in other regions of the World Bank, including
LAC and EAP. For instance, in the Pacific, the Bank recently released the report “Not if,
but when... Adaptation to natural hazards in the Pacific island countries” which
highlights concerns about the rising risk of natural hazards and climate change, and
advocates for a closer interaction of climate change adaptation and hazard risk
management, as well as integration of these issues into economic and operational
planning processes. Adaptation activities at the country level in the Pacific region include
the innovative Kiribati Adaptation Project, which is just entering its second phase with
financing from the GEF Strategic Priority on Adaptation. The proposed SCCF project in
Kenya builds on that experience in mainstreaming climate risk management, but now in
the context of a much larger country, directly contributing to poverty reduction and
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sustainable development, as well as to the Bank’s broader agenda of mainstreaming
climate risk management.
d - Lessons learned
A number of lessons have been learned from the implementation of the first Phase
ALRMP:
 Participation is the key to project impact and sustainability: The participatory process
increases ownership of project activities, creates capacity amongst communities and
leads to replication of activities. Community contributions to interventions further
increase ownership and sustainability;
 Capacity building is essential to aid implementation and ensure transparency and
accountability. The proposed project will build upon and strengthen the participatory
approach of the ALRMP;
 Diversification and risk management: Since the 1980s a trend of diversification away
from pastoral activities has been observed amongst the richest and the poorest
herders. The reasons and strategies for diversification differ significantly between
these groups and between male and female pastoralists. For the poorer groups
diversification does not necessarily reduce risk exposure; rather it tends to be a
replacement of pastoral activities out of necessity. Diversification cannot therefore be
seen as an unequivocally positive development, and support to diversification must be
varied, and well targeted;
 Grant contributions to income generating activities may not encourage sustainable
initiatives: Anecdotal evidence from the ALRMP suggests that many IGAs financed
by the CD component involved heavy capital investments (posho mills, irrigation
pumps). Sustainable IGAs in poor communities usually have to build on small capital
investments and high labor input, which has a low opportunity costs. Further concerns
have been raised that the IGA investments were captured by wealthier parts of the
community, who are deriving significant private benefits from this project
investment;
 Individual initiative should be encouraged. The ALMRP emphasized group
ownership (IGAs, social services) and group management approaches (drug
dispensaries, water points). The pre-appraisal workshop highlighted the importance of
fostering individual initiatives which are often seen as more sustainable;
 Conflict management is essential for development: The ALRMP was not designed to
deal with conflict, but, by necessity, it had to strengthen community-based and other
conflict management systems in order to carry out its development activities.
Effective conflict management must involve the communities and build upon
traditional institutions and structures. The proposed project will explicitly include
activities to strengthen sustainable conflict management systems in the project area;
 Preparedness and mitigation to reduce needs for recovery: Investments during the
preparedness and mitigation stages can reduce the extent of recovery needs. Planning
and funding must be at hand to intervene earlier rather than later and reduce overall
costs of intervention. The project will strengthen preparedness and, in particular,
mitigation strategies and interventions;
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

Natural Resources Management: An improved understanding of the AL resource base
is essential for successful and sustainable project interventions and NRM activities
need to be given greater importance. Activities need to encompass data collection and
monitoring of the resource base and a strategy for its maintenance and development;
Monitoring and Evaluation: Meaningful evaluation of project impact and effective
monitoring which can act as a tool in project implementation can only be achieved if
a systematic monitoring and evaluation framework is established from the start of the
project.
The proposed project also reflects the UNFCCC and GEF focus on mainstreaming of
climate risk management into development processes. In particular, it builds on previous
experience in climate change adaptation by the World Bank, particularly the Kiribati
Adaptation Program (partially funded by the GEF Strategic Priority on Adaptation). Key
lessons learned included the following:
 Climate change needs to be treated as a major economic and social risk, and not just a
long-term environmental problem;
 Addressing short-term vulnerabilities is the best strategy to prepare for long-term
impacts. Work on disaster risk reduction and on climate change adaptation needs to
be closely integrated;
 In order to effectively coordinate investments across sectoral Ministries and influence
national development planning, adaptation needs to have an institutional home close
to senior decision makers in the government;
 Adaptation needs to be integrated into economic planning, and the preparation of
sectoral plans and budgets;
 Adaptation should preferably focus on no-regrets strategies. Rather than site-specific
structural solutions, adaptation should look for soft options, embedded in sustainable
natural resources management;
 Adaptation investments need to be informed by a long-term process that links bottomup consultation with top-down planning and policy.
An additional lesson from the Bank-GEF Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate
Change Project is that political buy-in is a major implementation and sustainability issue
in adaptation to climate change and can be enhanced through a highly visible
coordination institution, multi-stakeholder committees, public awareness campaigns and
involvement of a variety of relevant national institutions.
These lessons are reflected in the proposed project’s scope and activities, and will be
further addressed through institutional strengthening and capacity building that will go
alongside the actual investments in climate risk reduction.
e - Project Development Objective
In order to address these challenges the KACCAL focuses on supporting innovative
initiatives to diversify and improve long-term livelihoods by engaging local communities
and the private sector as well as on strengthening the institutional and technical capacity
11
to manage current and future climate risks across scales. The project will take the
following approach:
1. At the local level, emphasis is placed on reducing the existing adaptation deficit
revealed by current climate hazards that frequently translate into disasters. This is to be
achieved by strengthening efforts to make early warning and seasonal climate forecasts
accessible to vulnerable stakeholders in ASALs, while also strengthening their capacity
to act upon information through improvement of agricultural extension services and
training in natural resource management.
2. At the governance and institutional level, the project focuses on strengthening the link
between disaster risk management and climate change to ensure that development and
operational planning, policy processes, and incentive systems address existing
vulnerabilities, but also account for important climatic changes to avoid processes, which
are maladaptive in medium to long-term. In this context, efforts will focus on supporting
emerging development of partnerships and information sharing mechanisms, which bring
together technical, development and policy perspectives and are essential for establishing
a continuous economic framework for disaster and climate risk reduction.
3. While public sector support is important for strengthening climate risk management
within development processes, the project recognizes that long-term sustainability can
only be achieved through the inclusion of the private sector. It is also noted that the
additional burden of climate change will make some livelihoods unsustainable. Hence,
the project also focuses on opportunities for economic diversification to initiate a process
of providing Kenya’s rural population with alternative livelihood perspectives. The CDD
component will help strengthen the long-term perspective towards reducing climate
related risk in investment choices at the community level, and facilitate and support
micro-projects oriented towards mitigating that risk. The projects will also examine the
viability of insurance and micro-credit schemes for buffering rural livelihoods against
climatic shocks, while also linking such schemes to incentives for vulnerability reduction
in the near to medium term.
f - Baseline scenario
Kenya is highly aware of the impacts of current climate variability on its economic
performance and poverty reduction efforts, particularly in the ASALs. In this context, the
World Bank is assisting Kenya to enhance food security and reduce livelihood
vulnerability in drought-prone and marginalized communities through the Arid Lands
Resource Management Project Phase 2 (ALRMP2), which focuses on 21 districts in the
ASALs. The ALRMP2 supports three complementary channels of intervention, which
together aim to address the complex problem of vulnerability, and enable communities in
the project area to move beyond survival and subsistence to sustainable development: 1)
Strengthening and Institutionalizing Natural Resources and Drought Management, which
will improve the management of natural capital, reduce the impact of natural shocks and
diminish acute vulnerability by reinforcing preparedness and mitigation activities, and by
improving the effectiveness of response interventions; 2) Empowering communities so
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that they can successfully identify, implement and sustain their development priorities
through Community-Driven Development; and 3) Fostering a conducive enabling
environment for development in the arid lands through policy support, advocacy and
improvement in the delivery of essential services, complementing existing sector
programmes.
The past three years have brought consecutive seasons of poor rains to many parts of
Kenya. These recurrent droughts have severely affected the areas covered by the
ALRMP2. Overall, the government and the donor community have responded to these
droughts in an effective way. On balance, using the early warning and contingency
planning system developed under the ALRMP2, the overall response to the emergency
was speedy and well targeted compared to previous years. Districts could access the
funds available through the Drought Contingency Fund (DCF) to address their most
urgent needs. However, due to the intense and prolonged nature of the drought, the
ALRMP2’s drought contingency funds have been exhausted. Hence, in August 2006, the
World Bank approved an additional financing credit of US$ 60 million, which responds
to the additional challenges posed by the recurrent droughts by: (a) scaling up both
geographically and substantively the successful drought management and long term
livelihood activities of the ALRMP in 28 districts; (b) reimbursing eligible and audited
non-food expenditures associated with the drought; and (c) scaling up the ALRMP2
drought contingency fund which has been depleted due to the extended nature of the
drought.
However, besides creating a need for additional financing, the recurrent emergencies due
to failing rains have focused the ALRMP2 stakeholders’ efforts primarily on immediate
response and recovery, limiting attention largely to a planning horizon of about 1-2 years.
At the same time, the droughts have reemphasized the need to focus on long-term
vulnerability reduction and strengthen the long-term planning perspective. This is getting
more urgent and necessary due to the rising risks due to climate change, which are
increasingly being recognized by key project stakeholders, but not yet explicitly
addressed in the baseline activities.
The recent drought has limited the ability of the Government of Kenya in strengthening
sustainable land-use management, as emphasis needed to be given to short-term
emergency relief. This recent disaster underlines the existing deficit in coping and
adaptive capacities to current climate extremes. Superimposed on this existing
vulnerability are the effects of climate change.
There is a need to systematically reduce environmental and socioeconomic vulnerabilities
which turn climate hazards into disasters, which divert funds away from development
activities and limiting in particular the ability of the poor to build and sustain assets.
g - SCCF Alternative
The Special Climate Change Fund alternative aims to strengthen the capacity across
scales to address climate risks. The approach recognizes that at the household and
13
community level emphasis needs to be given to addressing the existing adaptation deficit
to the current climate variability. However, solutions to the pressing needs of today need
to be identified that are not mal-adaptive in the medium to long-term due to the
superimposed effects of climate change, as well as other environmental and
socioeconomic trends. Therefore, these additional risk factors to the sustainability of
development processes have to be recognized in a framework of policy initiatives and
incentive structures. By working with stakeholders at all levels it is envisioned that the
project will reduce the vulnerability to current climate risks, while also improving the
longer term preparedness to climate change.
The SCCF alternative - Kenya, Adaptation to Climate Change in Arid Lands (KACCAL)
- will reinforce, strengthen and expand the efforts engaged in the second phase of
ALMRP specifically focused on mid-term long-term vulnerability reduction and food
security, specifically including the rising risks of climate change into the local and
national strategies and activities that affect sustainable livelihood in ASALs. Activities to
be considered include improved assessment of climate trends and projections of the
impacts arising from them; assessment of adaptation options that are consistent with nonclimatic trends and with traditional coping mechanisms; assessment of information
sharing systems including sharing local experience, weather forecasts and early warning
systems; and formal and informal risk spreading activities. While climate projections for
Kenya still contain some uncertainties, there is substantial scope to enhance national,
district and community-level planning to make it more robust to the changes that are
currently identified, particularly by employing win-win solutions that increase the
resilience of livelihood strategies, among others by enhancing natural resources
management and community investments (including changes in priorities, designs, or
locations); making better use of climate risk information (including climate projections
and forecasts on various timescales); and awareness raising among key stakeholders.
The SCCF add-on would be integrated closely into the baseline ALRMP2 strategies and
activities by providing additional investments to reduce long-term vulnerability to climate
risks among rural livelihoods in the ASALs. The project will build on the ALRMP’s
approach of enhancing current food security, drought and disaster management through a
multi-sectoral approach. It will integrate the rising risks of climate change into the
baseline activities, and scale up the investments in at least 4 out of the 28 districts
covered by the ALRMP. The specific planning improvements and investments in these
four districts would act as pilots to develop and apply systematic diagnosis and options
analysis for climate risk management. By building long-term vulnerability reduction into
a mature, well functioning project in its second phase that is rooted firmly in the
government’s key poverty reduction priorities and has developed substantial capacity at
the national, district and community level, the adaptation activities will be able to
strengthen proven institutions at all levels, and enhance mainstream planning and
policies.
In addition, the project will be supporting innovative livelihoods alternatives that will
contribute to the long term viability of the ASAL, particularly by promoting private
sector-communities partnership for the development and diversification of dryland
14
product commercialization. Opportunities for promoting value-addition (for e.g. in aloe
and sisal production etc.) towards diversifying incomes and providing employment will
be explored. This will build on ongoing work done by the EU and other development
partners.
Furthermore, beyond the ALRMP itself, the SCCF alternative will support integration of
long-term climate risk management in cross-sectoral planning and coordination
mechanisms for food security, drought and disaster risk management, and climate
change; and by enhancing provision of scientific information for climate risk
management. These coordination and information activities would not only benefit the
ALRMP activities, but would enhance planning and implementation across many climate
sensitive government programs, as well as programs by other actors affected by climate
change (private sector, local government, communities, NGOs).
Hence, the SCCF alternative will have an effect well beyond the four districts of the
ALRMP2 that will be its core focus. It will over time provide the groundwork for
expanded adaptation efforts in other districts of the ALRMP, as well as other sectors and
areas of the country. In that sense, the SCCF project will provide a crucial first step in
what will undoubtedly become a long-term adaptation effort. The proposed project would
provide practical experience, systematic institutional capacity and policy development to
jumpstart Kenya’s long-term challenge of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change
into planning and practice at national, district and community levels, enabling
government programs and investments to deliver their expected benefits in terms of
economic development and poverty alleviation, even in the face of the negative impacts
of climate change.
The project would have the following four components:
Component 1: Integrate a long-term climate-risk perspective into planning and
investments in four selected districts of the ALRMP and support innovative initiatives of
the private sector to ensure the sustainability of development processes
This component will improve planning and provide specific investments to enhance longterm food security and resilience to climate risks in the Kenya’s arid lands, in the context
of the ALRMP2. The activities will be implemented in at least 4 selected districts out of
the 28 districts covered by the ALRMP2, so that specific attention can be given to the
design of enhanced planning and implementation mechanisms and the project will be able
to demonstrate clear benefits and lessons learned which can be expanded to other areas in
subsequent phases. For its planning aspects, this component will utilize the institutional
structures of the ALRMP, and for the investments, it will utilize the existing delivery
mechanisms, which are closely linked to the integrated planning at the district and
community level. The upcoming mid-term review of the ALRMP will identify the
specific districts, and specific focus for the planning and implementation efforts in each
of those.
15
Key areas to be addressed include integration of climate change into natural resources
management and drought preparedness and management. Specifically, this would include
the integration of a long-term climate risk perspective into the Vision and Strategy for the
Arid and Semi-Arid Lands, and attention for land tenure and conflict management. At the
district level, climate change will be integrated into natural resources management
planning, which forms the basis for planning district drought preparedness investments
(especially water management) and investments in local services. At the community
level, a long-term climate risk perspective would be integrated into the ALRMP’s CDD
component. The adaptation project would finance the implementation of communityprioritized investment projects based on a long-term planning perspective in the
community prioritization process. Specific windows or incentives may be created to
enhance attention for such long-term planning required to adequately address the
changing risks associated with climate change. Furthermore, the project would strengthen
community capacity building components of the ALRMP to integrate long-term risk
information into their decision-making in daily life. In addition, it might include activities
to support local community-based enforcement of regulations that benefit climate risk
management, for instance through local environmental management committees. Finally,
it would strengthen support and backstopping to community-level activities with respect
to long-term planning from the district level project staff and from Mobile Extension
Teams.
Given that the identification, design and implementation of all of the investments under
the SCCF project will happen in the context of systematic climate risk screening and
planning processes at the community, district and national level, they are also expected to
inform and pilot some of the improvements in national mechanisms for planning and
coordination capacity and provision of information.
This component will also support innovative initiatives to engage the private sector to
provide new livelihood opportunities in the ASALs, aiming to provide alternatives to
existing livelihood strategies that may be becoming unsustainable. The project will
explore incentive structures to enable public-private partnerships for commercialization
of dryland products (for example, aloe, sisal etc.) that have high value in external
markets. The project will also identify and support incentives structures for communities
to enable them to sustain improved rangeland management, given the existing poverty
and pressure of emergency needs resulting from the drought.
In the context of private public partnerships specific attention will also be given to the
viability of weather index insurance schemes (e.g. data needs, institutional structures) and
how such schemes can be tied to incentives, which reduce vulnerabilities to climate risks.
This would build on experiences obtained by World Bank, World Food Programme and
others in Ethiopia, India and elsewhere as well as draw on expertise of re-insurance and
insurance sector to examine the potential for long-term sustainability.
16
Component 2: Enhance institutional capacity for provision and operationalization of
scientific information related to climate risk and improve national coordination for
climate risk management, including impact analysis of adaptation
Subcomponent 2a: Enhance institutional capacity for provision
operationalization of scientific information related to climate risk
and
Kenya has one of the best knowledge bases for climate risk information in Africa. These
include particularly the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), the intergovernmental
Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), based in Nairobi, the Department
of Meteorology at the University of Nairobi, the UN Drought Monitoring Centre and
various CGIAR institutes. In addition, there are a number of new initiatives that focus on
mapping climate hazard and impact. However, there is substantial scope to enhance the
application of this information in planning and practice, at national level, but particularly
at district and community/farmer level. However, there is substantial scope to enhance
the application of this information in planning and practice, at national level, but
particularly at district and community/farmer level.
There is also a broad variety of existing research initiatives on development and
adaptation to climate change at various research centers and networks in Nairobi, such as,
among others, the Climate Network, African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS), the
University of Nairobi and CGIAR institutes; covering research into livestock (e.g. the
Dryland Husbandry Project with the Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock
Development, University of Nairobi, OSSREA, EPOS), forestry (e.g. KEFRI),
agricultural planning for climate change (e.g. new ICRISAT consortium with ASARECA)
and institutional policy (e.g. University of Nairobi). The scientific community is also
involved with research on the ENSO phenomenon and rainfall characteristics in the
region. Furthermore, a large new program funded by UK DFID and IDRC will look at
climate change adaptation in Africa and is expected to include substantial activities in
Kenya.
Given the advances in developing accurate climate analyses across different time-scales,
ranging from daily to seasonal forecasts and climate change scenarios, an emphasis will
be put on supporting and strengthening efforts aimed at making this information available
to vulnerable stakeholder groups. These efforts will build on existing experiences, such as
the climate outlook forums for decision makers as well as recent efforts to train
agricultural extension workers.
The component will focus on improving the access to information on climate risks and
vulnerability, first of all in the context of the project’s core investments and its
stakeholders, but also with the broader objective to facilitate sustained flow of
information, not just during the project, but for long-term planning purposes in regular
work of the government, as well as districts and communities, closely tied to the national
coordination structures for climate change policy and implementation supported by
subcomponent 2b. At the local scale, efforts will be made to link the provision of climate
information with training on natural resource management.
17
Subcomponent 2b: Improve national and regional coordination for climate risk
management
At the central government level, climate change, disaster management, and food security
responsibilities are spread among a number of agencies and institutions, with limited
strategic coordination with respect to long-term climate risk management across their
various mandates. This component would enhance the national mechanisms for
coordination of plans and policies for climate change, disaster risk management, and food
security.
The mandate for coordination with respect to climate change and adaptation falls under
the Ministry for Environment and NEMA. Its Climate Change Secretariat handles the
national communications to the UNFCCC, and is also the point of contact for the CDM,
land use linkages, energy systems and GHG emissions. Beyond reporting, mitigation and
carbon sequestration activities, the primary focus is on raising awareness of climate
change issues within government and understanding adaptation and vulnerability. The
Inter-Ministerial Committee on Environment, which also includes NGOs and the private
sector, has eight technical sub-committees, including the National Climate Change
Activities Coordination Committee, also chaired by NEMA. This committee provides an
advisory on GEF proposals, assists with IPCC preparation.
With respect to disaster management and food security, key coordination mechanisms
include first of all the Office of the President (OP), which provides a coordination role for
national disaster management structures as well as support for sectoral Ministries in this
area, and is also the implementing agency for the ALRMP. Coordinating bodies within
the OP include the National Disasters Operations Centre, which primarily operates during
emergencies; and the Kenyan Food Security Structure (KFSS), which provides a
collaborative forum to regularly assess interdisciplinary sources of information, and
coordinates response between different Ministries and organizations (e.g. GoK, Kenyan
Red Cross, ICPAC, KMD, WFP, USAID, UN agencies etc). Furthermore, a National
Disaster Management Authority (NADIMA) is being established which would oversee
sectoral decisions in research, planning and response, and form an overarching structure
that includes the KFSS and special programmes, and would administer the Disaster Trust
Fund. Several of these national mechanisms have parallel structures down to the district
level.
This component would enhance the coordination among the various institutions dealing
with climate change, disaster risk management and food security, particularly aiming to
better mainstream climate risk management at all time scales into various national
policies, planning and implementation mechanisms and provide a powerful and efficient
system for interagency coordination that clearly delineates responsibility between various
agencies and avoids duplication of efforts.
18
Component 3: Support Community Driven initiatives to enhance long-term livelihoods
strategies
This component will build on the Community-Driven Development (CDD) component of
the ARLMP in that is fostering development capacity at the community level and
empowering communities in taking greater charge of their own development agenda and
taking responsibility for their choices. This component will help strengthen the long-term
perspective towards reducing climate related risk in investment choices at the community
level, and facilitate and support micro-projects oriented towards mitigating that risk. This
component will also support the strengthening of community based institutions for
improved natural resource management and for improving the resilience of the ecosystem
to future shock. While the specific micro-projects will be demand driven, they are
expected to address priority concerns of rangeland and water management, improve soil
productivity and land use, including but not limited to improved water harvesting
structures, protection of springs, maintenance of rock catchments, gully prevention,
localized tree/bush crops and forestry, soil and water conservation techniques, regulation
and maintenance of sustainable rangeland management systems etc.
Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) approach will be adapted to identify the
differentiated needs and priorities of various sub-groups in the community; PRAs will not
be one-off events, but start a process of continuous priority setting and review.
CDD Implementation Mechanism: The adaptation micro-projects will follow the
institutional mechanism already put in place by the ARLMP, and will be integrated into
the Community Action Plans (CAPs) through participatory rural appraisals (PRA). A
community contribution will be required for the first two categories of CDD projects,
following the policy of the first phase. In order to increase the sustainability of
investments, each project will include a maintenance plan including a community
fundraising strategy, be it through charging for services, or through regular contributions,
which will ensure sufficient funds for maintenance and eventually replacement of the
investment. This approach is designed to ensure that groups retain a strong feeling of
ownership of the funds invested and, with the assistance of the METs, select financially
viable investments.
Component 4: Program management and support, and monitoring and evaluation
This component will provide additional capacity to the existing ALRMP secretariat to
enhance the long-term climate risk management perspective of the project. Furthermore,
this component provides for specific monitoring and periodic evaluation of climate risk
management aspects of the ALRMP, and documentation of lessons learned to facilitate
replicability and scaling-up, within the ALRMP, towards other climate-affected areas and
sectors in Kenya, as well as for other adaptation initiatives in the region and beyond.
Efforts will be made to assess progress by monitoring monetary and non-monetary assets
over time (before and during interventions). Given a similar hazard exposure,
interventions should help households to improve their asset base over time. This would
be taken as indicator of reduced vulnerability to shocks.
19
4. SUSTAINABILITY (INCLUDING FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY)
Institutional
The core activities of the project will be fully integrated with the baseline project, which
has a successful institutional structure that was developed under its first phase and has
been retained for the current second phase. The policy and advocacy work will increase
the exposure of national policy and decision makers to the arid lands. This is expected to
generate some change in mindset in Nairobi well beyond the closure of the ALRMP.
The activities in the four pilot districts will primarily result in capacity of local
institutions and stakeholders for integrating a longer time horizon into their planning,
which should be sustainable beyond the implementation of the project’s investments.
Furthermore, the example set by these four districts will provide tools and mechanisms
for enhancing climate risk management that could be replicated to other districts. In
addition, over the coming years, the rising concerns about climate change are expected to
substantially raise the awareness of the need for adaptation in the key government
institutions. The project will provide these agencies with the tools and means to actually
address the rising risks, building capacity for climate risk management that will be
integrated into their regular way of operating. Furthermore, the enhancements in the
overall coordination mechanisms for climate risk management, with coordination by the
Office of the President, will increase the sustainability of risk management efforts in
individual agencies.
Social
Participation is the key to project impact and sustainability. ALRMP has already
developed and introduced an effective participatory approach to service delivery based on
a good understanding of pastoralist communities. The methodologies used under the first
and second phase will be assessed during the PDF phase. The design of the project
participatory approach will then fully benefit from the extensive experience of the
baseline project. The project will involve consultation and collaboration at many levels,
during preparation and implementation. It will take advantage of the partnerships and
linkages that have already been established by ALRMP in the districts and also seek other
ways of improving these partnerships so that they insure project’s sustainability.
Conflicts have the potential for undermining the gains from the project if not addressed
sufficiently. For this reason the project will assist those utilizing traditional methods of
conflict resolution as well as looking for innovative ways such as supporting the activities
of women who now in most communities are being respected as peace makers. Lessons
from ALRMP will be drawn where in particular the approaches used are sustainable.
Financial
Adaptation will be a long-term process, and the activities initiated under the proposed
project will require sustained efforts and resources. However, the main results of the
proposed project would be to make plans and approaches in the ASALs more climate
resilient and to build experience and institutional capacity for systematic climate risk
20
management in broader contexts. Regardless of subsequent external financing for
adaptation, such systematic problem diagnosis and options analysis would autonomously
result in sustained enhancements in climate risk management, simply because, even
without outside assistance, stakeholders would realize that the cost of not including
climate risk management would be higher than the cost of the additional investment.
5. REPLICABILITY
Climate change adaptation in Kenya will be a long-term process. The lessons learned
under the current project, both in terms of planning enhancements, specific adaptation
options, and improvements in institutional coordination, will help to create a basis for a
much broader program of climate risk management, both scaling up the climate risk
management efforts in rural livelihood enhancements in the ASALs (including by
expanding from the four pilot districts to other districts covered by the current ALRMP2),
as well as in other regions and sectors. There is, therefore, considerable scope for
replication and scaling-up of successful experiences under this project. The strengthening
of institutional coordination and the explicit attention for monitoring and evaluation and
documentation of lessons learned will facilitate this replicability and scaling-up. In
addition, the proposed project also includes provisions for periodic evaluations to inform
other climate-affected investments in Kenya, as well as other adaptation initiatives in the
region and beyond.
6. STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT/INTENDED BENEFICIARIES
The key beneficiaries are the people of Kenya, particularly the poor and vulnerable
communities in the ASALs. The total population in the arid lands, which extend over
approximately 370,000 sq km, is around 2.3 million, and around 3.5 million in the
extension districts which cover an area of around 100,000 sq km. These areas include
some of the poorest districts in the country, although there are large discrepancies in
wealth and land potential. Hence, the baseline project is targeting the poor population
groups and low potential areas in the districts. In addition to focusing project
interventions on poor districts, or poor sections of districts, the project will also target
specific interventions at the most vulnerable groups within these communities, especially
through the promotion of community-based safety nets as part of the CDD component
and particular support to vulnerable communities in emergencies in the context of the
natural resources and drought management component. The principal vulnerable groups
that were identified by the social assessment and that will receive particular attention
throughout project implementation are women who are widows and divorcees, the urban
poor, street children and marginalized groups. The population in the arid districts is
predominantly pastoral, but the characteristics of livestock ownership and movement
vary significantly across different ethnic groups and food economy zones (highlighted by
the Kenya Food Economy Map, Fewsnet/Save the Children, 2002). Across the nomadic
communities the analysis highlights a common pattern: the poorest are those that lost
their livestock in a recent drought and that are now settled or settling in and around urban
centers. These poor households are dependent upon relief food as an important part of
their livelihood and their economic activities center around informal sector employment
21
and small-scale petty trading. The semi-arid extension districts are predominantly
characterized by marginal dryland agriculture, complemented by pockets of agro-pastoral
livelihoods and some pastoral livelihoods in the Maasai area. Key risk management
activities to target these groups are being undertaken at district and community level, and
the proposed SCCF project will deliver its enhanced long-term planning perspective and
investments through these same mechanisms.
Another set of stakeholders include the national and regional institutions that can provide
information to the project and its stakeholders, including the Kenya Meteorological
Department (KMD), the intergovernmental Climate Prediction and Applications Centre
(ICPAC), the Department of Meteorology at the University of Nairobi, the UN Drought
Monitoring Centre and CGIAR institutes; as well as a number of national and
international research initiatives on development and adaptation to climate change.
At the central government level, stakeholders include Office of the President (OP) and its
mechanisms for arid lands management, food security and disaster management; as well
as the Ministry for Environment, its Climate Change Secretariat, as well as the InterMinisterial Committee on Environment and its National Climate Change Activities
Coordination Committee, chaired by NEMA. National governmental stakeholders also
include central and sectoral ministries that are affected by disaster management and
climate change, including Planning, Water, Livestock, Environment, Agriculture and
Rural Development, Health, Education etc. Furthermore, they include the newly
established National Disaster Management Authority (NADIMA) which would oversee
sectoral decisions in research, planning and response, and form an overarching structure
that includes the KFSS and special programmes, and would administer the Disaster Trust
Fund.
Additional stakeholders to be involved include a number of national NGOs operating in
the disaster risk, food security and climate change nexus, including the Kenya Red Cross
and various local, national and international NGOs operating at district and community
level; as well as international organizations and bilateral aid agencies, including USAID,
WFP, various UN agencies; and regional organizations such as NEPAD, the African
Union, and the African Development Bank.
Finally, the private sector is an important stakeholder, particularly for the innovative
livelihoods diversification strategies covered under component 1.
During project preparation, workshops and informal meetings will be carried out to
ensure adequate participation and involvement of all key stakeholders.
7. EXPECTED IMPACT
The project will help achieve the intended outcomes of the ALRMP2 within the four pilot
districts, even in the face of the rising climate risks, contributing to the achievement of
the following performance indicators of the ALRMP:
22






Decreasing annual trend in the number and percentage of people of targeted
communities in each ASALs district seeking/receiving free food aid;
Increasing annual trend in the percentage of households with food consumption above
national food poverty line at historically driest month (pastoralists) and before harvest
(fanners);
Reduced occurrence of disasters due to enhanced resilience to climatic hazards;
Increased value and diversity of livestock, productive and household assets, with
focus on female headed households and marginal groups;
Increased diversity and amount of household income from sources that are droughttolerant and environmentally non-degrading for targeted communities;
Improved child nutrition and health indicators for children below 5 (weight for
height/ weight for age as an anthropometric proxy).
In addition, it will enhance poverty reduction and sustainable development by enhancing
coordination of climate change, disaster risk management and food security policy and
practice at the national and sub-national level, and enhancing provision of climate
information to various end users.
8. RISK ASSESSMENT
One key risk is that recurrent droughts during the implementation period of the project
keep diverting attention away from the long-term planning that the project envisages to
accomplish. This risk is being mitigated partly by the fact that the baseline project has
already created substantial capacity to effectively respond to these short-term
emergencies, and partly by building capacity among the key agencies to be mentally and
physically prepared to respond promptly to deal with immediate catastrophes, even while
developing and proving longer-term solutions—using appropriate planning procedures in
the immediate response that enable integration of the necessary short-term solutions into
the longer-term planning context. In addition, it should be noted that recurrent extremes
can also provide an additional motivation to address the underlying long-term
vulnerabilities that might have remained hidden or tolerable under normal climate
conditions.
Another risk is that the project will fail to enhance the capacity and motivation of district
and local stakeholders to address the long-term challenges associated with climate
change. This is an important risk, given that much of the planning and implementation of
the project will need to happen within the four pilot districts under the ALRMP. This risk
will be mitigated by selecting districts that have expressed a clear interest in addressing
these long-term challenges and by finding local champions to promote the case and show
the benefits and opportunities associated with the additional efforts to address the longterm challenges. Furthermore, the community development modalities under the ALRMP
will be enhanced with an additional funding window that will provide specific incentives
for activities related to long-term vulnerability reduction.
Finally, the national government agencies dealing with various aspects of climate change
adaptation, food security and disaster risk management might be loath to enhance
23
coordination as it might mean that they would relinquish particular responsibilities to
other agencies. Mitigating this risk will require leadership on the part of the Office of the
President, based on the successful experiences under the ALRMP. Furthermore, the
project should convince key donors that future funding in these areas should, to the extent
possible, be channeled through one national mechanism, rather than through different
structures that duplicate efforts and have insufficient leverage over all key agencies.
D - FINANCING
ESTIMATED PROJECT COST (for
all tables, expand or narrow table line items as necessary
Project Components/Outcomes
Integrate a long-term climate-risk
perspective into planning and
investments in four selected
districts of the ALRMP and support
innovative initiatives of the private
sector to ensure the sustainability of
development processes
Enhance provision scientific
information and enhance national
coordination for climate risk
management
Support Community Driven
initiatives to enhance long-term
livelihoods strategies
Program management and support,
and monitoring and evaluation
TOTAL
ALRMP2
($)
GoK ($)
SCCF
($)
Total ($)
12,000,000
800,000 1,700,000 14,800,000
8,000,000
1,200,000 1,000,000 10,500,000
16,000,000
800,000 2,700,000 19,800,000
4,000,000
40,000,000
1,200,000
600,00
5,900,000
4,000,000 6,000,000 51,000,000
* This item is the aggregate cost of project management; breakdown of the aggregate amount
should be presented in the table in b) below:
\
24
b) PROJECT MANAGEMENT BUDGET/COST (estimated cost for the entire project)2
Component
Estimated
Staff weeks
1008
SCCF ($)
Other
Sources ($)
672,000
Project
Total ($)
1,008,000
Locally recruited
336,000
personnel*
Internationally recruited
0
0
0
0
consultants*
Office facilities, equipment,
120
800
920
vehicles and
communications
Travel
50
450
500
Miscellaneous
50
200
250
Total project management
1008
556,000
2,122,000
2,678,000
cost
* Local and international consultants in this table are those who are hired for functions related to the
management of project. For those consultants who are hired to do a special task, they would be
referred to as consultants providing technical assistance. For these consultants, please provide details
of their services in c) below:
c)
CONSULTANTS WORKING FOR TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE COMPONENTS* (for the entire project):
Component
Personnel
Local consultants
International consultants
Total
d)
Estimated
Staff Weeks
2450
400
2850
SCCF ($)
650,000
250,000
900,000
Other
Sources ($)
1,800,000
750,000
Project Total
($)
2,450,000
1,000,000
3,450,000
CO-FINANCING
The second phase of the ALRMP amounted to US$ 60 millions for 21 districts. A
supplemental project of the same amount led to up-scaling of the project to a total of 28
districts. The ALRMP emphasizes decentralized and community oriented rural
development and service delivery in the ASALs. It has been focused on addressing the
severe repercussions of the recent extended drought, and has targeted emergency
rehabilitation and immediate drought recovery priorities. An estimated USD 40 million
expected to strengthen national institutions, district level capacities, support CDD microprojects for service delivery and drought rehabilitation, addressing immediate needs,
provides the baseline for the KACCAL project. The incremental resources will support
the integration of a longer-term perspective in national and district level planning and a
variety of local interventions to adapt to climate variability and change that result in the
overall mitigation of that risk.
2
For all consultants hired to manage project or provide technical assistance, please attach a description in terms of
their staff weeks, roles and functions in the project, and their position titles in the organization, such as project
officer, supervisor, assistants or secretaries.
25
Name of Co-financier
(source)
Government of Kenya
ALRMP2 (Baseline
Project)
Total co-financing
Classification
Gov
IBRD
Amount
Confirmed ($) Unconfirmed ($)
Kind/Cash
4,000,000
In cash
40,000,000
Type
44,000,000
E - TIMETABLE FOR THE PROJECT
Preparation
Implementation
F-
Starting Date
11/15/2007
07/01/2007
Completion Date
06/30/2007
06/30/2011
INSTITUTIONAL COORDINATION AND SUPPORT
1) CORE COMMITMENTS AND LINKAGES
The proposed project is fully in line with the government’s strategy. Both the PRSP and
the KRDS discuss the importance of reducing risk and vulnerability for those Kenyans
who rely on the natural resource base for their livelihood. The need for development
aimed at reducing this risk is emphasized, through effective service delivery, drought
early warning systems, an improved natural resource and land use management system,
and assistance in the creation of more effective conflict resolution mechanisms. The first
national communication of Kenya to the COP of the UNFCCC states highlights the
critical importance of incorporating climate variability in the country’s policies for
various ecosystems. It notes that livestock and small-holder agriculture sectors are the
most important areas as they are the dominant livelihood source in the most vulnerable
regions to climate change i.e. the ASALs. The report places significance on the need for
appropriate agricultural and livestock policies and action programs that will reduce
vulnerability in the ASALs, specifically laying out adaptation options in agriculture,
water and rangeland management towards mitigating the potential adverse impacts of
climate change.
The proposed project is also consistent with the Bank’s overall strategy to incorporate
climate change adaptation into development plans and projects, as expressed, e.g., in the
Investment Framework on Clean Energy and Development and the recent publication
Managing Climate Risk (World Bank, 2006, issued at the GEF General Assembly).
2) CONSULTATION, COORDINATION AND COLLABORATION BETWEEN AND AMONG
IMPLEMENTING AGENCIES, EXECUTING AGENCIES, AND THE GEF SECRETARIAT, IF
APPROPRIATE.
The project team will further liaise with UNDP and UNEP during the next step of project
development. It brings the insurance that its design will benefit from useful information
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and elements acquired by UNDP on the same problematic. It will also insure adequate
coordination with the new UNEP-GEF local adaptation project.
3) IMPLEMENTATION/EXECUTION ARRANGEMENTS
The project would be implemented through the existing mechanisms of the ALRMP2,
with a coordinating role of the Office of the President. Additional linkages will be built to
the existing mechanisms for coordination of climate change policy, including the focal
point for the UNFCCC in the Ministry of Environment, NEMA and disaster and food
security coordination mechanisms.
Formal institutional arrangement will be further developed
recommendations drawn during the midterm review of the ALRMP2.
based
on
the
G - RESPONSE TO REVIEWS
1) CONVENTION SECRETARIAT
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2) OTHER IMPLEMENTING AGENCIES/RELEVANT EXECUTING AGENCIES
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PART II - PROJECT DEVELOPMENT PREPARATION (PDF)
A - DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED PDF ACTIVITIES
The PDF-B activities would include the following:

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





Establishment of project management arrangements within the context of the
ALRMP;
Technical and institutional reviews on climate risk management in the key
participating departments and for the four districts. The review would particularly
assess (potential) applications of climate risk information (at all timescales),
including planning and regulatory aspects. Among others, it would look at the use of
risk mapping (on the national scale and on a case-by-case basis, the latter focusing on
priority areas identified under the project);
Review of ALRMP social assessment and stakeholder consultation mechanisms,
specifically focusing on how to incorporate and provide incentives for long-term
planning perspectives including climate risk management, and preparation of public
awareness plan;
An institutional review of the overall coordination of adaptation to climate change,
food security and disaster management in Kenya, building on the ongoing EU/VARG
study “Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for
Sustainable Poverty Reduction”;
A technical study of capacity building needs in the Kenya Meteorological Department
and other national and regional knowledge centers for enhanced provision of climate
risk information, including climate projections and forecasts on various timescales;
An analysis of Community Driven Development mechanisms used by ALRMP. A
methodology for the implementation of the component 3 will be developed building
on the findings;
Environmental and social assessments;
Design of Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) system, for the SCCF project itself, as
well broader adaptation activities in Kenya in general (including systematic extraction
of lessons learned and establishment of a virtual climate risk management database);
Two multi-agency workshops, one as a kick-off for the studies, and one to discuss the
findings and agree on the project design;
Preparation of a complete Project Document for CEO endorsement and Bank Board
approval.
B - PDF BLOCK B OUTPUTS
The main expected output from the PDF B would be a Special Climate Change Fund
Project Document. This would include the following: detailed design of each component;
financing plan and budget, addition cost rationale, institutional analysis and management
plan, monitoring and evaluation framework and plan, results framework matrix. In
addition, other outputs would comprise reports on specific PDF B activities:
 Technical and institutional reviews on climate risk management in the key
participating departments and for the four districts;
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
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


Review of ALRMP social assessment and stakeholder consultation mechanisms;
Public awareness plan;
A technical study of capacity building needs in the Kenya Meteorological Department
and other national and regional knowledge centers;
Environmental and social assessment reports; and an Environment Management
Plan/Framework, as deemed necessary;
Report on M&E arrangements, including recommendations for extracting lessons
learned and establishing a virtual climate risk management database;
Project Implementation Plan (PIP) for the SCCF activities.
C - JUSTIFICATION
The PDF-B grant is an essential first step in integrating climate risk management into the
ALRMP and to enhance broader coordination of climate risk management, food security
and disaster management in Kenya.
By financing the preparation activities, the PDF-B will contribute to the institutional
capacity building for climate risk management, particularly in the OP and other key
participating departments. The studies would help to define ways to enhance planning
mechanisms to prioritize adaptation investments within the four key districts.
As in the baseline project, public involvement and stakeholder participation will be
crucial for adaptation, and critical for the design and implementation of the proposed
project.
Environmental and social assessments would document the potential impacts (both
positive and negative) and mitigation measures to be adopted under the proposed project.
The activities to be financed by the PDF B are necessary for the design of the proposed
program and to enable its concept and vision to be translated into activities that can be
implemented.
D – PDF IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
Project preparation activities would begin in November 2006, soon after approval of the
PDF B application. It is expected that execution of the Grant would occur over a 6/7
month period and that a Project Appraisal Document, including appendices, would be
ready for Bank approval during the first quarter of FY 07.
E – PDF BUDGET
a) Total PDF budget (no IA/ExA staff cost to be funded out of PDFs)
Activities
Project Document
Establishment of project management arrangements
Technical and institutional reviews on climate risk management in
SCCF ($)
30,000
20,000
70,000
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the key participating departments and for the four districts
Review of ALRMP social assessment and stakeholder consultation
mechanisms
Institutional review of the overall coordination of adaptation to
climate change, food security and disaster management in Kenya,
Technical study of capacity building needs in the Kenya
Meteorological Department
Analysis of Community Driven Development mechanisms used by
ALRMP
Environmental and social assessments
Design of M&E system
Multi-agency workshops
60,000
30,000
20,000
80,000
30,000
30,000
20,000
Total PDF budget/cost
390,000
* This item is the aggregate cost of project management; breakdown of the aggregate amount
should be presented in the table in b) below:
Component
Locally Recruited Personnel
Internationally recruited
consultants
Training
Office equipment
Travel
Miscellaneous
Estimated
Staff weeks
70
36
SCCF ($)
70,000
90,000
Other
Sources ($)
20,000
0
Project
Total ($)
90,000
90,000
40,000
10,000
50,000
30,000
290,000
30,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
100,000
70,000
30,000
70,000
40,000
390,000
d ) DETAILED PDF CO-FINANCING (as part of total budget)
Co-financing Sources for Project Development Preparation (PDF)
Amount
Name of Co-financier
Classification
Type
Confirmed
Unconfirmed
(source)
($)
($)
ALRMP
IBRD
In cash
100,000
Subtotal co-financing
100,00
F – RESPONSE TO REVIEWS
1) Convention Secretariat
2) Other Implementing Agencies/Executing Agencies
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