Download Resilience an approach for urban climate change

PRoACC
Research proposal on
RESILIENCE: AN APROACH FOR ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE IN URBAN – CASE STUDY FOR
CAN THO CITY
Researcher: HUYNH THI LAN HUONG
Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Vietnam
Mentor: Dr. Assela Pathirana
Department of Municipal Infrastructure
UNESCO-IHE
28 May 2010
PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
Contents
1)
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 2
a)
Project title:............................................................................................................................ 2
b)
Acronym:................................................................................................................................ 2
c)
Location of the research [region and/or country]: ............................................................. 2
d)
Participating partners (other than UNESCO-IHE): .......................................................... 3
e)
Project Idea and Concept ..................................................................................................... 3
2)
DESCRIPTION OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT ...................................................... 4
a)
Rationale and background ................................................................................................... 4
b)
Problem statement & research questions: .......................................................................... 5
i)
ii)
c)
Problem statement ............................................................................................................................. 5
Research questions ............................................................................................................................ 5
Overall & specific objectives ................................................................................................ 6
d)
Research methodology and implementation ....................................................................... 6
i)
ii)
Research approach ............................................................................................................................. 6
Anticipated results & deliverables:.................................................................................................... 7
e)
Role of linked MSc and PhD studies: .................................................................................. 8
f)
Dissemination & outreach: ................................................................................................... 8
g)
Integration with other PROACC studies ............................................................................ 8
h)
Link with other on-going UNESCO-IHE and/or partner initiatives and/or activities: .. 9
i)
Schedule of activities ............................................................................................................. 9
3)
PROJECT MANAGEMENT ........................................................................................ 10
a)
Management arrangements ................................................................................................ 10
b)
Monitoring & evaluation .................................................................................................... 10
4)
RESOURCES NEEDED .............................................................................................. 10
5)
BUDGET ....................................................................................................................... 11
References ............................................................................................................................. 12
Annex A: Logical Framework .............................................................................................. 14
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
1) INTRODUCTION
a) Project title:
Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – Case study for Can Tho city
b) Acronym:
c) Location of the research [region and/or country]:
Can Tho City, Vietnam
Figure 1: Map of Can Tho city
Can Tho, a biggest city in Mekong river delta, has strategic geography: in centre of Mekong River
Delta, on the trade flux between the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, Ca Mau Peninsula, Dong Thap Muoi
and Ho Chi Minh City. The area of the city is 1,389.59 km2, with the population is 1,187,089 (in
April, 2009).
Developed after other municipalities and with large peripheral areas, Can Tho owns several
opportunities to make master plan with open space in order to convert peripheral regions, adjacent to
become new centers of economic, financial, trade, and tourism.
Can Tho is in tropical-monsoon area. There are two season in the year: dry and rainy season. During
the last 30 years (1977 - 2007), the annual average temperature in Can Tho increase about 0.4oC, and
the rainfall also seem increase in flood season and decrease in dry season. (Figure 2).
Can Tho
Can Tho
2500.0
27.6
27.4
2000.0
27.2
Rainfall (mm)
T (oC)
27.0
26.8
26.6
1500.0
1000.0
26.4
26.2
500.0
26.0
Year
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
25.8
0.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Figure 2: Trend of Temperature and Rainfall in Can Tho Meteorological station in Vietnam
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
Flooding
Can Tho with low altitude (60-80cm above MSL.), then every year upstream floods of Mekong
River in combination with spring tide and rains cause flooding in Vinh Thanh and Thot Not
Districts.
Experts warned that if no positive response, in 20 years the majority of Can Tho will be sunk in
seawater. (http://www.thotnot.vn)
On 5 Oct 2009, heavy rains lasted over one hour that causes serious inundation for Can Tho. Several
roads such as Mau Than, Tran Hung Dao, Xo Viet Nghe Tinh, Hoa Binh, Ly Tu Trong are inundated
under 1 m height of water. Local people said that this have been being the largest flooding events for
several decades. Many houses in the city were inundated.
Flooding on the Hoa Binh Avenue (Can Tho)
Whole Ly Tu Trong Street in inner city is
diverted to “river”.
Figure 3: Some figure of flooding in Can Tho city on 5 Oct 2009
(Source: http://tintuc.timnhanh.com/xa-hoi/20091006/35A9A2AA/TP-Can-Tho-bi-ngap-sau-lichsu.htm)
d) Participating partners (other than UNESCO-IHE):
Partner 1:
Acronym:
Address:
Type of organization:
Partner 2:
Acronym:
Address:
Type of organization:
Vietnam Institute of Meteorology,
Hydrology and Environment
IMHEN
23/62 Nguyen Chi Thanh, Dong Da, Ha
Noi, Vietnam
Government
Department of Natural Resources
and Environment - Can Tho city
Can Tho’s DONRE
9 Cach Mang Thang Tam, Ninh Kieu,
Can Tho, Vietnam
Government
e) Project Idea and Concept
Climate change is making weather less predictable, rains more uncertain and heavy storm rainfalls
more likely. Furthermore, urban areas are also subject to regional climate change. Major cities have
a significant impact on global and regional climate change due to their intensive material and energy
use accompanied by population growth and the physical expansion of the metro region. More
comprehensive research (Oke, 1979; Landsberg, 1981) has shown that cities might cause an increase
in precipitation for the following reasons:
-
The well-known urban “heat island” promotes air instability in urban areas;
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
-
Absolute humidity is found to be somewhat higher in certain cities;
Urban roughness enhances mechanical convection;
The urban atmosphere contains large quantities of CCN (Cloud Condensation Nuclei) and
IN (Ice Nuclei)
Research has proved that cities might influence an increase in precipitation (Shafir and Alpert,
1990, Jauregui and Romales, 1996). The urban-heat-island (UHI) effect, the temperature difference
in an urban area compared to adjacent rural regions (Grimmond, 2006; Oke, 1987), is a good
example of urban micro climate change. A study in Taiwan also note that, when increased 100W/m2
of AH (anthropogenic heat) in the model, the average surface temperature could increased nearly
0,3oC in Taipei. (Chuan-Yao Lin et. al., 2008). Characteristics of rapidly urbanizing areas include
population growth, land-use/land-cover (LULC) change, and intensive material and energy uses.
These factors are closely related to the causes and effects of climate change.
Increasing in precipitation is one of reasons causing flooding in urban. Urban flooding which is
intensifying due to rapid urbanization has been an inevitable problem for several cities in the world.
The increase in impervious areas due to urbanization cause an increase in flooding frequency due
lack of infiltration and change of urban climate. In has been noted that, the increased frequency of
occurrence of flood events is related to climate change contributing to increased precipitation (IPCC,
2002). Due to an increase in precipitation, the drainage system capacity of urban areas will be
exceeded due to increase in surface runoff. This will result to an increase in floods as well as the rise
of associated damages. Besides that, land subsidence also another reason causing flooding.
However, the question “What is sufficiently operational for the local actors to explore policy options
in order to deal with potential impact of climate change on urban flooding?” is a time’s and relevant
one.
Using a modeling framework with the aim of providing local planners with a tool to construct
alternative land-use planning scenarios and compare them using a set of sustainability criteria has
been developed in Dhaka, Bangladesh. (Manoj Roy, 2009). This is a good experience for answering
the above question.
Science and Engineering of Urban Flooding: The traditional, engineering approach to explain and
model the local rainfall generated urban floods depends entirely on the direct impact of the land use
change on the overland part of the hydrological cycle (e.g. retarded infiltration due to sealed
surfaces). However, recent scientific insights have indicated that, which this explanation remains
valid, there are other mechanism (urban heat islands) that often compounds the adverse impacts of
urbanization on flooding (Bornstein and Lin, 2000, Baik et al. 2001, Ikebuchi et. al., 2007, Shiguang
et. al., 2009). If the hypothesis that the UHI significantly increase urban rainfall is true, in the current
engineering design practice, the future increase urban flows are essentially underestimated.
2) DESCRIPTION OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT
a) Rationale and background
Climate change is becoming widely recognized as the key global challenge of this century. The
publishing of the Fourth Assessment Report from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC
AR4) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007a) and the bestowal of the 2007 Nobel
Peace Prize on the IPCC marked the effective end of informed debate on whether climate change is
human induced and real – both are true to a very high level of certainty. However, the quantitative
assessment of impacts at hydrological scales is far from over and operationalizing the effective
responses for the impacts in fields like infrastructure design practice (e.g. sewers) is just in its
infancy. Time is ripe for attempts to integrate all major impacts on the urban floods (e.g. global
climate change, direct impacts on land-use change on runoff hydrology and the microclimatic effects
of urbanization) in order to quantify the overall change in urban flood phenomena, in order to plan
effective resilience measures.
Urban areas may contribute to increase of thunderstorm activity because their built-up surfaces attain
higher temperatures than surrounding areas and create a local air circulation that produces an ’urban
heat island’. (Action Aid, 2006). There are some examples of effects of urban heating on the heavy
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
rainfall event, such as, heavy rainfall on 21 July 1999 in Tokyo (the Nerima heavy rainfall). The
event of heavy rainfall was investigated by a coupled model of a cloud resolving model CReSS and
a precise land surface model SiBUC. From the simulation, it was found that changes of distribution
of urban area and anthropogenic heat amount greatly affected on the positions and amounts of
rainfall. (Ikebuchi et. al., 2007). From the research, it shown that in Beijing, city does play
importance role in determining storm movement and rainfall, further urbanization is conducive to
bifurcate the path of rainfall. (Shiguang et. al., 2009). However, the urban effect on precipitation is
very difficult to estimate. (H. Shafir and P. Alpert, 1989). It is necessary to use a forecasting model
for predicting the effect of urbanization on rainfall pattern, then combine with changing of global
climate scenarios for further study.
The expected impacts of climate change also pose considerable challenges to many cities. Changes
in sea level, river discharge and weather extremes, combined with increasing potential impacts due
to urbanization enhance the need to make cities “climate proof”. (Wardekker, et. al. (2009)).
Irrespective of mitigation efforts, some degree of climate change is inevitable, and adaptation will be
necessary. (Smith (2000) and Grübler (2007)). For decision maker, it is not always easy or
straightforward on how to appraise the policy implication of uncertainties. Case-study
(operationalized for the city of Rotterdam) on system-oriented strategy: strengthening the resilience
of the impacted system to climate change has been implemented. It shown that, the resilience
principles succeeded in making resilience sufficiently operational for local actors to translate the
concept into concrete options. (Wardekker, et. al., 2009).
Therefore, it is also need to do more study on analyze and propose resilience approach for the
specific area. Using the forecasting model for predicting the impacts of each resilience options then
develop evaluation criteria in order to select the suitable option. It will be very useful for decision
makers for dealing with uncertainty are formulated for climate change adaptation.
b) Problem statement & research questions:
i) Problem statement
In Vietnam, analyzed results shown that, climate change (CC) already caused catastrophic natural
disaster, especially typhoons, floods and droughts. By the end of 21st century, temperatures in
Vietnam would raise 2.3oC relative to the average of 1980-1999, annual and rainy season’s rainfall
will increase about 5% compared to that of the period 1980-1999, by mid 21st century sea level is
expected to increase about 30cm and sea level would rise about 75cm by the end of 21st century.
(Source: Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam).
All of above factors will effect on urban flooding of many cities in Vietnam including Can Tho. It is
anticipated that the Can Tho city will witness an exponential growth during next several decades,
largely due to its strategic location. The dramatic change in land use in and around the city will have
both direct (runoff hydrology) and indirect (UHI) impacts on the urban water cycle, resulting in
more frequent and higher magnitude floods.
Like other cities, urgent action is necessary to prevent damage caused by climate change in Can
Tho. To be able to develop adaption measures to climate change, it is necessary to use models for
simulating the possible microclimatic changes. Then taken together with other signals of climate
change (e.g. rainfall increase due to global warming, sea-level rise), the impacts should be quantified
in order to plan mitigation measures. From the assessment of impacts of climate change, resilience
options and suitable adaptation strategies to climate change can be proposed.
ii) Research questions
The research questions are:
-
Would the dramatic urbanization in and around Can Tho city result in significant
increase of extreme rainfalls? (Local Climate Change)
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
-
-
What is effect does future climate change will have on Can Tho city? (Global
climate change)
How to assess the effect of future changing in rainfall causing by urbanization
combine with climate change scenarios on drainage system and flooding situation of
Can Tho city? (Impacts)
How to develop the adaptation strategies for addressing climate change problems?
(Adaptation)
c) Overall & specific objectives
(A logical framework of the objectives, research questions and activities of the project is
requested in Annex A)
The objective of the project is to develop a response framework that integrates all the major adverse
impacts of future changes (global and local climate change, direct impact on runoff hydrology) on
urban floods. To do that, the project will conduct main following specific objectives:
1. To identify the current state of the flooding in Can Tho city and possible impacts of climate
change;
2. To develop the tools for forecasting impacts of climate change on urban flooding in Can Tho
city;
3. To propose resilience building toward adaptation to climate change in Can Tho city;
To achieve this objective the following activities will be done:
1. Using the realistic urbanizatino scenario developed for Can Tho City (by an associated
MSc), impact on extreme rainfall due to microclimatic change will be adoped (modelling
framework exisits – only application).
2. Design raistorms for the future by integrating the above with the possible change of extreme
rainfall due to global climate change (The latter will not be modeled, but modeling results
will be used).
3. Application of an integrated urban draiange/inundation model (SWMM-Brezo) to Can Tho
city (The model already developed) with the above rainfall scenarios to predict the future
flood damage in the city.
4. To propose effective measures for building flood resilience in Can Tho city with the insights
gained from 3.
d) Research methodology and implementation
i) Research approach
The main emphasis of the research will be on the impacts of global and local climate change on
urban flooding and suitable mitigation measures. Whenever, suitable external resources for impacts
are available they will be directly adopted (e.g. global climate change impacts on extreme rainfall)
with necessary caveats (e.g. scale issues). However, for some phenomena such suitable external
resources are rarely available. UHI impact is an example. In order to perform impact assessment and
mitigation planning with acceptable degree of scientific certainty, modeling remains the only
approach in such situations. Hence, UHI impact modeling will be undertaken. However, the
necessary modeling framework (with a variants of WRF model – see below) was already developed
for this purpose during a past MSc study. This framework will be applied for Can Tho City, with
realistic urban growth scenarios.
Availability of good urban growth scenarios is essential to the success of the project. However, this
is a specialized area and therefore, it is unrealistic to perform the task within the core activities of the
current project, whose focus is climate change adaptation. A six month Master’s thesis project is
proposed under the framework of the project where an MSc candidate will be undertake the urban
growth scenario development task. The current project will use it as input.
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
For urban flood modeling, an integrated model (SWMM-Brezo) that has been developed at IHE
during the period 2007-2010 is available.
CLIMATE CHANGE SENARIOS
GLOBAL DATA
GLOBAL
CLIMATE
CHANGE
FORCINGS
GLOBAL
BOUNDARIES
CONDITION
LANDUSE MAP
ELEVATION MAP
SCENARIOS
DEVELOPMENT
FROM LOCAL
AUTHORITY
SOCIALECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
PLAN
ATMOSPHERIC
MODEL
CREATING
GENERATION
RAINFALL
SCENARIOS
FREQUENCY
ANALYSIS
IDF CURVES
DESIGN
RAINFALL
RIVER FLOW AND
SEA LEVEL RISES
SCENARIOS
URBAN MODEL
URBAN
FLOODING
CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION
Figure 4: Project flow
ii) Anticipated results & deliverables:
Results from the research:




A modeling system that is suitable for assessing the future changes in the urban flooding
situation in the Can Tho City (Consisting of Atmospheric model for UHI impact, integrated
1D/2D model for drainage and flooding).
Integrated assessment of impacts of global (climate) and local (climate and other) change on
the urban flood prognosis of the Can Tho City.
Realistic operational guidelines for building resilient urban infrastructure in the city.
The findings of the study will be replicable in similar cities in South East Asia.
Deliverables:
Output
Current state of the
flooding in Can Tho
city and possible
impacts of climate
change.
Tools for climate
change impacts
assessment;
Resilience building
toward adaptation to
climate change in Can
Tho city
Activities
 Gathering, systemizing and analysing data,
documents of the hydrological and
meteorological factors, natural
characteristic, socio-economic conditions in
study areas
 Literature review, interview;
 Gathering and analyzing data;
 Measuring and investigating for
supplementing lacked data;
 Set up models;
 Assess the impacts of urbanization on
rainfall patern;
 Scenarios development;
 Assess of impacts of scenarios;
 Selecting options for resilience;
 Evaluating;
 Propose suitable adaptation strategies;
Deliverable
November 2010
April 2011
August 2011
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
The outcome will be directly useful for the city’s policy makers to implement future-proof solutions
for flooding issues in the city, considering realistic future scenarios (climate, growth). With little
effort, the approach would be replicable in many similar urban environments in and around the
Mekong basin.
Therefore, the results will contribute to the sustainable development plan for the Mekong River
delta, in particular, and for the Mekong river basin, in general.
(Provide an estimate of the intended output)
1
2
3
4
5
6
Research reports
Articles for peer reviewed journals
Contribution to MSc theses, if applicable
Contribution to PhD theses, if applicable
Other Academic Publications, specify type:
Climatic Change
Hydrology and Earth System Science
Other Professional publications / products:
2010
1
1
2011
1
1-2
1-2
1-2
x
e) Role of linked MSc and PhD studies:
The research will be linked to MSc studies are conducted at UNESCO-IHE. Links are established
based on the exchange of knowledge, data and research results. The Atmospheric Model will be run
on IHE's servers. In the poor conditions of internet connection between Vietnam and the Netherland,
MSc students at IHE can support to connect to server, download data and operate model. In addition,
MSc students will run some simulation models and make a data exchange with the research. Postdoc fellow will make the necessary analysis together to solve rising problems in the studies.
f) Dissemination & outreach:

Two international articles;

A paper in the international Workshop;

Introduce in Universities, colleges;
g) Integration with other PROACC studies
Impacts on Fluvial
Morphology Due to Climate
Change and Human
Activities in the Lower
Mekong River Basin
Giving the scenarios of flow
from the river system which
may be use in model as
boundary condition
Giving the flow of the
drainage network which
may be use in model
U-CLIMATE
(Urbanization-Driven
microclimate change and
cyclic impacts on urban
flooding)
Climate change –
vulnerabilities management
and risk modelling for the
coastal area in the Mekong
Delta
Giving the scenarios of flow
from the coastal areas
which may be use in model
as boundary condition
Wastewater reuse toward
adaptation to climate
change in the Mekong Delta,
Vietnam
Giving the flooding
information in order to
propose the adaptation
measures
Institutional adaptation
strategies to climate risks in
Mekong region
Figure 5: Integration with other PROACC studies
In order to fully consider the impact of climate change scenarios on urban flooding, the project need
to utilize the boundary condition with the result from project of “Climate change - vulnerability
management and risk modeling for the coastal areas in Mekong Delta” and “Impacts on Fluvial
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
Morphology Due to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Lower Mekong River Basin”. In
terms of output, from the results of the current research, projects “Wastewater reuse toward
adaptation to climate change in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam” and “Institutional adaptation strategies
to climate risks in the Mekong” could benefit.
h) Link with other on-going UNESCO-IHE and/or partner initiatives and/or
activities:
Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment have a range of research related to
Climate Change, in which some projects are on going, such as:
-
Impact of Sea Level Rise and Adaptation Measures (on going);
Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Adaptation Measures (on going);
Capacity Building for National Focal Point on Climate Change (on going);
In which, the results of the project: Impact of Sea Level Rise and Adaptation Measures and project:
Impact of Climate Change on Water resources and Adaptation Measures will give out the scenarios
of climate change and sea level rise for some main river basins, including Mekong River. The
research project may get the output of above projects as input for developing the rainfall changing
scenarios.
Moreover, the results of the research project will contribute to the Project of Capacity Building for
National Focal Point on Climate Change. In particular, the results will be helpful for capacity
building for Can Tho in the view of developing for drainage system in order to face with the climate
change contents.
Impact of Sea Level
Rise and Adaptation
Measures;
ICCaU
(Interaction between
Climate Change and
Urbanization)
Capacity Building for
National Focal Point
on Climate Change
Impact of Climate
Change on Water
Resources and
Adaptation Measures;
Figure 6: Link with other on-going partner initiatives and/or activities
i) Schedule of activities
Activity
Activity 1: Gathering, systemizing and
analysing data, documents of the
hydrological and meteorological factors,
natural characteristic, socio-economic
conditions in study areas
Activity 2: Literature review
Activity 3: Interview, Measuring and
investigating for supplementing of lacked
data
Year 1
Year 2
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
Activity
Year 1
Year 2
Activity 4: Identify climate change related
problems for Can Tho city
Activity 5: Setup models;
Activity 6: Assess impacts of urbanization
on rainfall pattern;
Activity 7: Developing Scenarios
(urbanization combine with global climate
change scenarios (include river flow
changing, sea level rise, extreme
events…)
Activity 8: Assess the impact of scenarios
Activity 9: Selecting options for resilience
Activity 10: Evaluation
Activity 11: Propose adaptation measures
3) PROJECT MANAGEMENT
a) Management arrangements
Describe regular communication and project progress reporting arrangements
 The proposal will be finalized at the end of May;
 After come back to Vietnam, the post - doc will communicate via email, telephone. The
progress report should be sent to supervisor at least once or twice a month;
 Supervisor and post-doc fellow will go to study are in August, 2010;
 All of the post-doc fellow need to be in UNESCO-IHE in around April, 2011, so the result
can be reviewed by supervisors and exchanged between post-doc fellows;
b) Monitoring & evaluation





The final proposal should be approved;
The first international article should be released in April, 2011;
Midterm report should be submit in May, 2011;
The second international article should be released in August, 2011;
Final report should be submit in August, 2011;
4) RESOURCES NEEDED







Global Data: Numerous global data sources (e.g. atmospheric boundary conditions from
Global Models) needs to be accessed. These sources are essentially free, but, the data
transfer volumes are high. (See the item below for the solution)
For urban flooding studies good local data resources are essential. (e.g. Topographical data
from good contour maps, current land use, drainage network details) These will be collected
and processed by the researcher.
A fast simulation workstation with fast internet connection (atmospheric models need
around 1GB of data for a day of simulation). The plan is to keep this at IHE and the post doc
will access the machine from Vietnam via a low band with connection. Data exchange will
be largely with servers in the mainland Europe and USA so the IHE-VN slow connection
will not affect the performance.
Technical support at IHE end. Dr. Pathirana is familiar with the setup and the technical
handling of the simulation system. There will be an MSc student (already allocated) to assist
in simulations.
Urban growth scenarios –largely operate as an independent MSc project.
Laptop;
Stationary;
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
5) BUDGET
No
1
1.1
a
b
1.2
a
b
c
1.3
a
b
c
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
3
Items
Local travel (three times)
First local survey (one person / 5 days)
Air-ticket
Accommodation
Second local survey (two persons / 5 days)
Air-ticket
Accommodation
Assistant (payment for the assistant)
Third local survey (two persons / 5 days)
Air-ticket
Accommodation
Assistant (payment for the assistant)
Payment for data
Hydro-meteorological information
Elevation data
Land use map
Social-economic information
Drainage network system
Measuring, investigating to supplement
lacked data
3.1 Hiring local people to measure the
Unit
Quantity
Unit
cost
(EUR)
Cost
1,875
325
200
125
775
400
250
125
775
400
250
125
1,400
100
100
300
200
700
750
ticket
night
1
5
200
25
ticket
night
day
2
10
5
200
25
25
ticket
night
day
2
10
5
200
25
25
day
20
20
400
day
day
10
5
25
20
250
100
drainage system (two persons x 5 days)
3.2 Renting equipment (5 days)
3.3 Hiring local people to investigate the
historical flood (one person x 5 days)
4 Simulation workstation (Dell Precision
2x6c with 12GB ram) for shared
memory WRF simulations (located at
IHE)
5 Software. (C/Fortran compiler needed
for the models + possibly the urban
growth modeling need)
6 Conferences (for attending the national
3,500
1,000
500
conferences)
7 Laptop
Total
1,000
10,025
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
References
ActionAid (2006) Climate change, urban flooding and the rights of the urban poor in Africa.
Baik, J., Kim, Y. And Chun, H, Dry and Moist Convection Forced by an Urban Heat Island, Journal
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PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
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13
PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
Annex A: Logical Framework
Project Description
Main activities, results & deliverables
Performance
Indicators
Overall objective:
The major goal of the
project is to develop a
response framework
that integrates all the
major adverse
impacts of future
changes (global and
local climate change,
direct impact on
runoff hydrology) on
urban floods
Main activities:
 Gathering, systemizing and
analysing data, documents of the
hydrological and meteorological
factors, natural characteristic,
socio-economic conditions in study
areas
 Literature review, interview
 Measuring and investigating for
supplementing lacked data;
 Scenarios development;
 Set up models;
 Assess of impacts of scenarios;
 Flooding situation for each rainfall
scenarios;
 Selecting options for resilience;
 Evaluating;
 Propose suitable adaptation
strategies;
Results:
 All the outputs/results with
scientific papers
Deliverables:
 August 2011
Main activities:
 Gathering, systemizing and
analysing data, documents of the
socio-economic conditions in study
areas;
 Literature review, interview;
Results:
 Report on climate change related
problems for Can Tho city;
Deliverables:
 November 2010
Main activities:
 Gathering, systemizing and
analysing data, documents of the
hydrological and meteorological
factors, natural condition, drainage
system;;
 Measuring and investigating for
Articles for
international
journal and
research report.
Specific objective 1:
To identify the
current state of the
flooding in Can Tho
city and possible
impacts of climate
change
Specific objective 2:
To develop the tools
for forecasting
impacts of climate
change on urban
flooding in Can Tho
city
supplementing lacked data;
 Scenarios development;
 Set up models;
 Assess of impacts of scenarios;
Critical
assumptions /
risks
The research
may face some
difficulties in
data collection
on up-to-date
land use, socioeconomic
development,
drainage system;
The research
may be in risk if
the scenarios of
climate change
will not be
released on
time.
Report
The research
may face some
difficulties in
data collection
Article for
international
journal.
The research
may face some
difficulties in
data collection
and getting the
scenarios of
global climate
change
14
PROACC proposal
“Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban – case study for Can Tho city”
Specific objective 3:
To propose resilience
building toward
adaptation to climate
change in Can Tho
city
Results:
 Flooding situation for each
scenarios;
Deliverables:
 Aug 2011
Main activities:
 Selecting options for resilience;
 Evaluating;
 Propose suitable adaptation
strategies;
Results:
 Report on resilience options and
propose adaptation strategies;
Deliverables:
 Aug 2011
Article for
international
journal.
The research
may face some
difficulties in
data collection
15