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Analyzing the Biological Impacts of Climate Change Name ___________________________ Name ___________________________ Name ___________________________ Autumn 2013 1. This map gives the current average annual temperature for major cities in North America. a) In 2100, what current west coast city would Seattle be most similar to, if current trends continue and temperatures increase by 6.4 degrees? b) The King County is home to 1.9 million people. Comment on the consequences for these individuals. 2. In Washington, most water for crop irrigation and drinking comes from snowpack. Comment on how declining snowpack is likely to affect: a) Seattle (Created by Freeman; 2011) b) Washington state’s fruit industry 3. In Lake Washington, Daphnia are the major food source for most fish. They are herbivores and mainly feed on diatoms. The regression lines on the graph show recent trends in the timing of population peaks for diatoms and Daphnia. a) What can you conclude from this graph? (From Winder & Schindler; Ecology 2004) b) What do the data imply about the future of the Daphnia population? 4. This graph shows the % change in average yield of wheat in key wheat-producing countries from 1980-2008, plotted as the difference between actual yields and projected yields in the absence of climate change. When the average is negative, it means that the country produced less wheat than they were projected to produce. a) Much of Washington’s wheat crop is exported. What do these data imply for Washington’s wheat farmers? b) In extremely hot summers, yields of Washington wheat drop. But over the next 100 years, the impact of extreme heat is projected to be offset by the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 on wheat yields. Explain why. (From Lobell et al; Science 2011) 1 5. Feedbacks describe situations where an event has an effect that “feeds back” to the original event. For example, if climate change causes “X” and “X” causes more climate change, the feedback is considered a positive feedback. On the other hand, if climate change causes “Y” and “Y” reduces climate change, the feedback is considered a negative feedback. Fill out the following table with this in mind. What is a possible impact of this event Is this a Positive Feedback, a Event and how does it affect climate change? Negative feedback, or neither? …decreases in Net Primary Production (NPP) in marine environments. Climate …increases in tree growth in change old growth forests in the is Pacific Northwest. causing… …increases in fire frequency and severity in the Western Cascades. …the sea level to rise. 6. Salmon are sensitive to heat stress. After being handled, the body’s hormones must return to equilibrium to continue regular function. The graph shows the time salmon needed to return to equilibrium (after being handled) when placed in 13oC, 19 oC, or 21 oC water. a) Based on this analysis, how will climate change impact salmon populations in Washington state? b) Comment on the implications for Washington’s fishing industry. (From Gale et al; Fisheries Research 2011) 7. Recent work on Mount Rainier has documented changes in the number of trees becoming established in alpine meadows—treeless habitats dominated by wildflowers. The data graphed to the right are from the ranger station at Sunrise. (Sunrise is the highest visitor center at the park and is within the range of alpine meadows.) a) What do these data suggest about the distribution of trees? b) If climate change continues, what is the probable fate of alpine meadow habitats on Mount Rainier? 8. Consider the following reaction: CO2(g) + H2O(l) a) Explain why seawater is becoming more acidic. (From Rochefort and Peterson; Arctic & Alpine Research 1996) H+(aq) + HCO3-(aq) b) Oysters have calcium carbonate (CaCO3) shells. Rates of CaCO3 deposition in marine organisms slow when pH drops. Discuss the implications for Washington’s shellfish industry. ********* Please turn the completed exercise in to any T.A. (and make sure that your names are legible!) 2 *********