Download Video tran​script

Q&A Adapting to a variable climate
Thank you, Jason. Another great presentation where we really get to drill down to a much more
local level and see this, see these case studies and see what the impact is in some of the levers that
Jason was describing being able to pull.
Now we are over time, but we can't have a session like this without having a few questions. Would
anyone like to ask a question of any of the panel? Yes, sir.
Hi. This is in general directed to the whole panel. With warming climate and lower rainfalls in
significant areas of Australia, what is going to be the overall in the future of groundwater and how
farming and the process of access groundwater [INAUDIBLE]?
I don't know that there's a sort of a study which has actually assessed that. But one of the things I'd
say is that, for example, Jason put up a graph there which was the difference between rainfall and
potential evaporation. So it's rainfall minus [? PET. ?] And that was going down in all of those
different climate models. And that's going to be a key driver of both surface water and of
groundwater recharge. And so under those scenarios, on average, the ground water is going to go
down, so the ground water access.
The offsetting factor there is that as rainfall intensity tends to increase and extreme rainfall
increases, so sort of wetter years becoming wetter, and so as well as the dry years getting dryer,
those wet years are really fundamental to groundwater recharge. So it's actually the balance between
those two things, an average drying and those extreme events. And I think the outcome of that will
be very, very localised. So in some regions that will be increased groundwater. In quite a few I
suspect reduced.
The implications for accessing that groundwater, I think that's something which we'll just have to
play it by ear. Because I think these issues will pop up again. I mean, they need to be addressed
now, but they'll probably increasingly need to be addressed just like surface water. And the
arrangements associated with that will need to be continuously revisited as these futures that Jason
was talking about come through.
Yes please.
My name's Diana Gibbs. I'm chair of Regional Development , [? Australia-Riverina. ?] Agriculture
is very important to us. Thank you for your presentation, and I completely agree with you that the
adaptation space is where we should be with agriculture. I appreciate your comment about the-- I
think it was Jason talked about how to find the-- what's really behind the change in the noise of the
[INAUDIBLE] that we deal with.
My question related to policy options. I tried to sit on the New South Wales Climate Change
Council as their token push person. And policy options that are discussed are always about very
metrocentric centric things. Do any of you speakers have any recommendations for policy options to
assist the adaptation actions that are required for agriculture?
Yeah, probably just mention one. And actually Barnaby Joyce mentioned it in his opening address
yesterday. That was increasing farm management deposits. I think when you look at-- this is broadly
about risk management. Then obviously having a greater capacity to invest to actually even out
some of those income fluctuations is really important. And probably one of the good things about
farm management deposits, at least compared to insurance is if you don't use it, you haven't actually
lost anything. It's actually sitting there in a bank.
So I think that was really quite a positive move in terms of risk management and encouraging people
to actually prepare for change and support themselves. So that would be one policy option that I'd
nominate as being very positive on the adaptation front.
I'll throw another one in. I think that's a good suggestion. And another one is in relation to R&D, So
analyses, including [INAUDIBLE] by Neil Hughes up the back there, has shown long term changes
in the total factor productivity. Essentially that's the increase in efficiency of production over time in
agriculture, apart from the last decade or so where it actually started to go, instead of going up, it
was going down. And a lot of that's actually driven by climate influences.
And at the same time we've actually had lower and lower R&D expenditure. And there's a long term
consequence of R&D expenditure. And that's reduced total factor productivity. And that happens in
Australia and the rest of the world. So one of the key things we need to do is keep on providing
effective R&D in terms of the amount, but also the mechanisms to distribute that and target that.
One last question anyone? Because I'm dying to ask one. Just very, very quickly, I've 30 years been
talking to farmers about these sorts of issues. And by their very nature, optimistic about what they
do and really keen observers of what happens. And they talk about the variability of climate and
accept that as being a given. Do you now have a sense that there is growing acceptance amongst the
agricultural community that what we've been looking at here today is absolutely happening and that
they're going to have to adapt? Do you get any sense of that Mark in your work?
I'll pick this up. I've actually done analyses of survey responses from farmers. And so I pulled it in
from different surveys. And the message here is that the stated views of farmers in surveys are much
more sceptical of climate change than the public average. So in fact it's about twice as many people
say it's not happening, or it's not happening , it's not due to humans, compared with the Australian
population average.
So the public fight so of farmers is very much, essentially, let's deal with climate variability. Climate
change is something we don't want to deal with. In reality, when they actually start to look at the
practises and the practise changes that farmers have done, it is actually saying that the climate is
changing, because the things that they are doing are things that are in response to those changes in
climate that they're seeing. And so Between sort of 75% and 80%, depending on survey of farmers
actually doing the sorts of adaptation practises that they would do if they believed in climate change
or said they believed in climate change.
So there's this difference between the stated views and the actions that they're taking. And so you
need to be very careful about how you interpret the things that are coming out of the farming
community in that respect.
In contrast, the peaked body in FF have been consistent for a long time in saying that climate change
is one of the big issues facing the industry. And so again, you're getting a different view depending
on whether it's an individual farmer or a peaked body and the sort of issues that they're dealing with.
Thank you. That's a really interesting answer Mark. I will draw a line here because it is lunch time.
I'm sure you're all very keen to have a feed. But this have been a brilliant session. Could you please
thank Joel Lisonbee, Mark Howden, and Jason Crean for their very engaging presentations.
[APPLAUSE]