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G
C
O
S
DMCN
GLOBAL
CLIMATE
OBSERVING
SYSTEM
Of UNESCO
WMO
UNEP
DMCH
GCOS REGIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA
NAIROBI, KENYA
14 – 18 JANUARY 2002
ICSU
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page Numbers
1. Introduction
3
2. List of Draft Project Proposals
4
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
4
4
4
4
4
Meteorological and Atmospheric projects
Terrestrial projects
Oceanographic projects
Shared Aspects in GCOS Networks projects
Capacity Building and Modeling projects
3. Priority Draft Project Proposals
3.1
6
Improving the GCOS Surface and Upper air Climate Observing Network
in eastern and southern Africa
6
3.2
The GCOS – GAW Network in Eastern and Southern Africa Region
9
3.3
Carbon Cycle Measurements
11
3.4
Hydrological Observations including IGAD- and SADC-HYCOS
14
3.5
Oceanographic observations in support of GCOS and integrated coastal
Management
17
Remote sensing products in support of GCOS in Eastern and Southern
Africa region
20
3.6
3.7
Capacity building for climate data management systems (CDMS) in ESA region 23
3.8
Improving telecommunication facilities for climate data collection and exchange
in ESA
26
3.9
Education, awareness, training and curriculum development on climate change
29
4. Other Draft Project Proposals of Regional Importance
31
4.1
Mt. Kilimanjaro, Mt. Kenya, and Mt. Ruwenzori glaciers
31
4.2
Establishment of an urban observing system
34
4.3
Monitoring of the Inland Lakes as Indicators of Climate Change
36
4.4
Methodologies for climate change monitoring, detection, attribution,
vulnerability, impact and adaptation assessment
40
Modelling and downscaling of climate change scenarios over ESA
44
4.5
5. Acronyms
47
2
1. INTRODUCTION
The Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have
recognized the importance of high quality well spaced data for climate-related purposes and have
noted that, in many instances, either the geographic coverage, quantity or quality of the data
produced by current global and regional observing systems are inadequate. Most of the problems
occur in developing countries, where lack of funds for modern equipment and infrastructure,
inadequate training of staff and continuing operational expenses are often major constraints.
The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was established in 1992 to ensure that the
observations and information needed to address climate-related issues are obtained and made
available to all potential users. Decision 5 of the 5 th Conference of Parties (COP5), in particular,
invited the GCOS Secretariat, in consultation with relevant regional and international bodies, to
organize regional workshops designed to address the capacity-building needs and funding
required to overcome regional deficiencies in meteorological and atmospheric, oceanographic,
and terrestrial observing systems for climate of the developing countries.
GCOS and its regional partners in eastern and southern Africa namely the Drought Monitoring
Centres in Nairobi (DMCN) and Harare (DMCH), organized a GCOS regional workshop for
Eastern and Southern African (ESA) sub region of the continent in Kisumu, Kenya from 3 to 5
October 2001.
The Workshop was the second in a series of ten regional workshops that GCOS has planned in
response to the concern of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC regarding declining climate
observation networks for climate change monitoring, detection, attribution and assessment of the
associated socio-economic implications. The Kisumu workshop resolution called for a Regional
Action Plan (RAP) to be prepared. The RAP would specify priority actions to be undertaken in
order to improve observing systems and also chart out a strategy for implementing these actions.
In order to develop the Regional Action Plan, a team of experts was constituted to prepare some
draft project proposals in key priority areas that could improve observational networks for
enhanced climate change monitoring, detection, attribution and assessment of the associated
socio-economic implications The first meeting of the team of experts that discussed the draft
project proposals was held in Nairobi between 14 and 18 January 2002 and was supported by the
Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO).
This report highlights the draft project proposals for the Regional Action Plan that were prepared
and exhaustively discussed by the experts at the Nairobi meeting. The experts noted that there
were several projects that were important for the region but may not be priorities within the
GCOS and UNFCCC frameworks. It was agreed that the experts address all priority areas of the
sub-region. GCOS could then focus on the draft projects that were within its mandate, while the
region could float the other draft projects to WMO and other potential donors and partners for
funding.
3
2. LIST OF PROJECT PROPOSALS
The experts identified five categories under which the draft project proposals were classified as
listed below. In this list, ** has been used to identify all draft projects that could be of priority
within the framework of the GCOS Regional Action Plan in ESA.
2.1 Meteorological and Atmospheric
 GSN and GUAN: Improving the GCOS surface- and upper-air climate observation network in
the Eastern and Southern Africa region**.
 The GCOS-GAW Network in Eastern and Southern Africa region**.
2.2 Terrestrial
 GTN for glaciers (GTN-G): Monitoring of Mt. Kenya, Kilimanjaro and Mt. Ruwenzori glaciers
 GTN for Ecology (GTN-E): Carbon Cycle Measurements**
 GTN for Hydrology (GTN-H): Improving hydrological observations by integrating IGAD- and
SADC-HYCOS**
 Urban climate: Establishment of Urban Observing System
 Inland lakes: Hydro-meteorological observations of the Inland Lakes in the ESA region
2.3 Oceanographic
 GOOS: Enhancement of Oceanographic observations in the western Indian Ocean**
2.4 Shared Aspects in GCOS networks
Remote sensing: Remote sensing for enhanced GCOS observations in Eastern and Southern
Africa region**
Database management: Capacity building for climate data management systems (CDMS) in
ESA**
 Telecommunication: Improving telecommunication facilities for climate data collection and
exchange in ESA**
2.5 Capacity building and modeling
Education, Awareness, Training and Curriculum development on climate change**
Modeling and downscaling of climate change scenarios over Eastern and Southern Africa
Modeling of climate change, attribution, vulnerability and impacts.
4
The proposals under sub-section 2.1 that are devoted to GSN and GUAN are critical in the
enhancement of climate observation network. Although GSN and GUAN are ranked as key
priority areas, it was noted that GAW programme collects, distributes, and archives observations
of atmospheric constituents, including ozone, ultraviolet radiation, aerosols and acid rain. These
constituents are very important in addressing climate change issues. It was further noted that the
draft projects in subsection 2.4 are also vital and form an integral part of the improvement of the
data acquisition, storage and exchange. Enhancement of Oceanographic observations in the
western Indian Ocean is also a major priority. It was however noted that a number of efforts have
been initiated by WMO, GOOS, IOC and ARGOS in the sub-region. The experts recommended
that instead of developing a new project proposal for the Indian Ocean, the existing efforts
should be supported especially the original WMO project (WIOMAP) for the sub region.
It was noted that some of the projects, such as the ones on urban climate and Inland lakes, are
regional in nature, and could play an important role in understanding the climate of the region,
and thus assist in monitoring and understanding of global climate variability and change.
As a way of overcoming regional deficiencies in meteorological and atmospheric, oceanographic,
and terrestrial observing systems, capacity building is quite critical in the region, together with
Modeling and prediction of climate variability and change, and ability to assess the potential
impact on eco-system and socio-economic systems would support sustainable development.
Some of these issues may not be priorities for GCOS.
The experts noted that climate change would have devastating impacts on all socio economic
activities of the sub-region. Most governments of the region, and the public in general are not
well informed about the causes of climate change and the associated potential socio economic
impacts. The most vulnerable members of the society are women, children and people living in
the arid and semi arid lands (ASALs) that constitute a large portion of the sub-region. The
project on education, awareness and specialized training is expected to improve public awareness
and education in the field of climate change with a focus on the importance of observational data
as a basis for tackling the issue of climate change. The training will ensure that stake holders,
the major socio-economic sectors and all level of the general public are aware of key climate
change issues.
5
The following sections provide a summary of all papers that were developed by the experts from
the Sub region. The projects that are considered to be priorities within GCOS framework are
presented in section 3, while those of regional importance appear in section 4.
6
3.
PRIORITY DRAFT PROJECT PROPOSALS
The project proposals summarized in this section address the priority areas for improving the
deficiencies in the observing system in ESA.
3.1
Improving the GCOS Surface- and Upper-Air Climate Observing Network in
Eastern and Southern Africa
3.1.1 Summary
The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Surface Network (GSN) and GCOS Upper Air
Network (GUAN) are two critically important meteorological networks within the GCOS for
understanding climate change. There are 84 GSN and 10 GUAN stations within the eastern and
southern Africa region. However, observations from these stations are currently inadequate for
the purposes of detecting, attributing, monitoring and predicting climate change. More than onequarter of GSN stations and one-fifth of GUAN stations are silent and most of the remaining
stations report much less than desirable.
Many stations are not functioning adequately because funds are insufficient to acquire equipment
and to carry out day-to-day operations. In addition, there few qualified staff to operate and
maintain equipment. The objective of this project is to fully implement efficient, cost effective
and sustainable GSN and GUAN networks for the eastern and southern Africa region that can
meet both global and regional needs. Achieving this goal will require both the purchase of new
equipment and targeted capacity building.
3.1.2
Introduction and Problem Analysis
The efficient operation of the GCOS surface and upper air network is important for the
achievement of the goal of the GCOS programme which is to facilitate improvement in climate
observations leading to better:
 Climate system monitoring, climate change detection and assessment of impacts of climate
change.
 Accurate data for economic development.
 Research related to climate activities.
The WMO Annual Global Monitoring (AGM) indicate that the operation of GSN and GUAN in
Africa is unsatisfactory. In Eastern and Southern Africa 20% of GUAN and 26% of GSN
stations are silent. Only 50% of the 10 upper air and 10% of the 84 surface stations provided at
least 90% of the expected report. These limitations affect climate monitoring and prediction
both for the regional and global community.
The Conference of Parties at its 5th Session (Decision 5/CP.5) urged Parties to address
deficiencies in the climate observing networks. SBSTA (CFCCC/SBSTA/2001/C.14) noted with
concern the on going deterioration of global observation systems for climate as was also
emphasized in the IPCC Third Assessment Report.
The region is also vulnerable to extreme climate events, which have adverse social-economic
impacts. The situation is worse over sparsely populated areas; deserts, oceans, areas of conflict
and those hit by natural disasters. Causes of deficiencies in the observation networks include:
· Lack of financial resources to acquire equipment
· High costs of consumables
· Lack of necessary infrastructure such as insufficient trained staff
7
3.1.3
Justification
The Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) recognized the vital importance of improving climate-observing systems. The COP
has placed particular emphasis on addressing deficiencies in developing countries with a view to
improve collection, exchange, and utilization of data on a continuing basis in pursuance of the
UNFCCC goals and to develop the necessary capacity to operate and maintain networks.
The benefits of accurate and reliable data will assist in the alleviation of poverty and reduction of
food insecurity through application of climate outlook programmes.
For better understanding of global climate, it is important that the standards of operation of GSN
and GUAN stations is the same in developing countries as in developed countries. Uneven
distribution of data also leads to a bias in the performance of climate models and inhibits the
validation over data sparse areas.
3.1.4
Goal and Objectives
The goal is to have an efficient and operational observation network. To achieve this goal, the
objective is to implement a cost effective and sustainable GSN and GUAN networks for the
Eastern and Southern Africa region that can meet both global and regional needs.
The specific objectives include:

To assess, rehabilitate and/or automate the existing GSN and GUAN.

To build capacity related to operation, maintenance and repair.

To establish national GCOS focal points.

To ensure continuous and timely data flow

To reduce the cost of consumables and equipment for GSN and GUAN
through negotiations for bulk purchase.

To seek partnerships with other related services and end-users.
3.1.5
Expected Activities and Outputs
No. Activity
Output
1.
An improved, efficient and reliable observing
systems (i.e. 100% of expected reports).
Sustained data availability
3.
Rehabilitation by upgrade and/or automation
of the existing GSN and GUAN
Capacity building related to operation,
maintenance and repair
Establish national GCOS focal points
4.
Reassess GSN and GUAN
5.
Ensure continuous and timely data flow
6.
Negotiate for bulk purchase of consumables
and equipment.
Seek partnerships
2.
7.
Enhance coordinated and efficient problem
solution
Obtain an optimum network
Timely receipt of accurate and quality
controlled data by end users.
Reopen closed GUAN stations and reduce
costs of operation
Improve efficiency and reduce costs
8
3.1.6
Budget
No. Item
1.
Amount
US$
Rehabilitation and/or automation of the existing GSN and GUAN
Bulk procurement and installation of AWOS at the 84 GSN @US$8,000
Procurement of conventional equipment for 53 GSN @US$10,000
Procurement of consumables for 10 GUAN (PER YEAR)
Rehabilitation of the GUAN
Capacity building related to operation, maintenance and repair.
Attachments for personnel
Establish national GCOS focal point-NO COST
2.
3.
4.
Reassess GSN and GUAN.
Constancy cost
TOTAL
3.1.7
672,000
530,000
700,000
200,000
100,000
-
20,000
2,222,000
Potential donors and Partners
The project funding may be sought from various institutions including:








The WMO Voluntary Co-operation Programme (VCP)
The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
The regional and sub-regional economic groupings
Global Environmental Facility (GEF)
The European Union in extension of applications of satellite products
International Telecommunication Union
Relevant ongoing national, sub-regional and regional projects
Any other regional and international institutions addressing relevant activities
9
3.2
Improving the GCOS Global Atmospheric Watch Network in Eastern and
Southern Africa
3.2.1
Summary
The Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Programme of the Global Climate Observing System
(GCOS) is very important for understanding climate change. There are 2 GAW global (See
GAW Website) stations within the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region and 3 GAW
regional (See GAW Website) stations. However, observations from these stations are currently
inadequate for the purposes of detecting, attributing, monitoring and predicting climate change
on a regional scale. Most stations report much less than desirable because funds are insufficient
to acquire equipment and to carry out day-to-day operations. In addition, there are too few
qualified staff to operate and maintain equipment. The objective of this project is to fully
implement efficient, cost effective and sustainable GAW network for the eastern and southern
Africa region that can meet both global and regional needs. Achieving this goal will require both
the purchases of new equipment and targeted capacity building.
3.2.2
Introduction and problem analysis
The global warming associated to rising atmospheric concentration of CO 2 is one of the main
causes of human-induced global climate change. An understanding of climate change dynamics
for attribution of causes requires consideration of several key atmospheric constituents, including
greenhouse gases, stratospheric ozone and aerosols. Thus enhanced operation of the GAW
network is important for the achievement of the goal of the GCOS programme which is to
facilitate improvement in climate observations leading to better: climate system monitoring,
climate change detection and assessment of impacts of climate change; accurate data for
economic development; and research related to climate activities.
3.2.3
Justification
The Conference of Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) recognized the vital importance of improving climate-observing systems. The COP
has placed particular emphasis on addressing deficiencies in developing countries with a view to
improve collection, exchange, and utilization of data on a continuing basis in pursuance of the
UNFCCC goals and to develop the necessary capacity to operate and maintain networks.
For better understanding of global climate, it is important that the standards of operation of
GAW stations is enhanced in developing countries to match those in developed countries.
Uneven distribution of data on atmospheric constituents also leads to a bias in the performance of
climate models and inhibits the validation over data sparse areas. This negatively affects the
credibility of climate change scenarios.
3.2.4
Goals and Objectives
The goal is to have an efficient and operational network to monitor long-term evolution of the
atmospheric composition on a regional scale in order to assess this contribution to climate
change. To achieve this goal, the objective is to implement a cost effective and sustainable
GAW network for the Eastern and Southern Africa region that can meet both global and regional
needs.
The specific objectives include:


To assess, rehabilitate and/or automate the existing GAW.
To build capacity related to operation, maintenance and
10


3.2.5
repair.
To ensure improved programme of measurements related
to climate change
To ensure continuous and timely quality data flow
Activities
No. Activity
Output
1.
2.
Identify the needs of the network
An improved and reliable observing system.
3.
4.
3.2.6
Assess GAW network
Establishment or Rehabilitation by upgrade
and/or automation of the existing GAW
Capacity building related to operation,
maintenance and repair
Ensure continuous and timely data flow
Sustained data availability
Timely receipt of accurate and quality
controlled data by end users.
Budget
No. Item
Amount
US$
50,000
500,000
1.
2.
Assess GAW network
Establishment and Rehabilitation of GAW stations
3.
4.
Procurement of consumables for 10 GAW (PER YEAR)-------------Capacity building related to operation, maintenance and repair of
instruments.
100,000
TOTAL
750,000
3.2.7
100,000
Potential Donors/Partners
WMO (GAW), UNEP, WHO, GEF, IGAD/SADC, DMC-N/DMC-H, The following ministries of
the respective countries: Agriculture, Energy, Environment, Tourism, Health and Water NMHSs
and Universities/Research institutes
11
3.3
Carbon Cycle Measurements
3.3.1
Project Summary
This proposal is to provide the minimum set of carbon cycle observations for Eastern and
Southern Africa that is consistent with uncertainty reduction at both the regional and global
scale. It has five activities, corresponding to the five tiers of the GHOST approach (atmospheric
CO2 measurements, CO2 flux measurements, land carbon measurement, land surface
characterization and remotely-sensed indicators), each of which has a sequence of tasks
involving network formation, development of sampling protocols, training, data archaeology and
output generation.
3.3.2
Introduction and problem analysis
The rising atmospheric concentration of CO2 is one of the main causes, and symptoms of,
human-induced global climate change. An understanding of its dynamics sufficient for medium
and long-term prediction and for retrospective attribution of causes requires consideration of
several key components of the carbon cycle, including carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, carbon
on the land, and the exchange between the two.
3.3.3
Justification
The main tools for understanding the carbon cycle at the global and continental scales are
precision observations of CO2 in the atmosphere (including its isotopes) and numerical
modelling. Inversion of the models, constrained by the temporally- and spatially- varying
atmospheric observations, indicates which parts of the land and ocean are sources or sinks of
carbon, an issue of major political and economic importance in the context of the Kyoto
Protocol. The logic of the inversion process results in the greatest uncertainty ending up in the
least well constrained location – Africa. A decrease in uncertainty there also results in a decrease
in uncertainty everywhere else in the world.
3.3.4
Goal and Objectives
The goal is to reduce the uncertainty in prediction of carbon fluxes for Africa south of the
equator to the global average for continental areas within five years.
Objectives
·
·
·
·
·
·
To build capacity and promote regional carbon cycle syntheses.
To operate two additional atmospheric CO2 sampling stations within the subcontinent
(Africarbon).
To establish network of existing carbon flux measurement sites in savannas and encourage
establishment of three new sites in under-sampled biomes. (Afriflux)
To observe carbon-cycle-relevant parameters at fifty RSN stations located on national
agricultural research stations, forestry research stations or ecological research stations
(African production network.).
To create a database of land-surface characteristics for climate, hydrological and carbon
cycle modelling at 500 locations in the region. (Reference Patch network)
To capture carbon cycle indicators for the region from operational satellite products (Eagle
Eye).
12
3.3.5














Undertake flask sampling of CO2 at GAW station on Mt. Kenya,
Undertake atmospheric profile sampling by aircraft based in Johannesburg
Undertake inverse modeling every 5 years using data generated by GCOS/GTOS in the
region along with other available data. This activity will be undertaken in partnership
between African and developed country investigators.
Planning sessions will be conducted and data will be archived within the region
Establish three additional flux tower sites in the important biomes in the region; namely one
in Central African tropical forest, one in eastern African Savannahs and one in southern
African Shrub land. The data will be disseminated to other global networks.
Identify and quantify Geo-Sources of CO2 in the region.
Establish three more continuous flux measurement facilities;
Co-locate about 50 regional surface network sites with the nationally operated sites where
global carbon cycle data is already being collected, for example national agricultural research
stations, forest stations, national parks, etc.
Mapping of an area of about 9 km2 within 2 km of the carbon surface network site for land
cover species and above ground biomes will be undertaken every 5 years. Monthly record of
land use practices; soil profile characteristics, surface soil carbon content and production
related data would be obtained.
Data archaeology exercise is undertaken
Training of personnel and sampling protocols will be provided.
Document of public domain database of about 500 locations in eastern and Southern Africa
will be undertaken in order to improve land surface parameterization of climate, carbon and
remote sensing models. The sites will be selected on the basis of vegetation homogeneity.
The data obtained will be disseminated to users.
Obtain Carbon cycle relevant data such as NDVI, land cover through regional remote sensing
activities on routine basis.
Archive data and disseminated through GTOS to regional collaborators.
3.3.6






Activities
The Outputs
Best estimate of carbon flux to and from the region is determined.
Geo-sources of CO2 in the Rift Valley are assessed
Three more continuous flux measurement facilities are established
About 50 GCOS sites are established within carbon surface network sites
Reference patch network is established
Remote sensed data is obtained, archived and disseminated to collaborators.
3.3.7
Contribution to GCOS/GTOS
The Project will lead to improved global CO2 observation network. The improved network will
lead to greater understanding of sources and sinks of CO2 and hence better understanding of
global warming and climate change.
13
3.3.8
BUDGET:
Regional Integrative Studies;
US$
Africarbon
International:
National:
Sub-Total:
215,000
0
215,000
Continuous Recording Fluxes; Afriflux
International:
National:
Sub-Total:
242,000
0
242,000
African Production Network:
International:
National:
Sub-Total:
525,000
200,000
725,000
Reference Patch Network:
International:
National:
Sub-Total:
113,500
75,000
188,500
Remotely Sensed data acquisition: Eagle Eye
International:
National:
Sub-Total:
188,000
30,000
218,000
Total
Total
International: 1,283,500
National:
305,000
GRAND-TOTAL:
3.3.9
1,588,500
Possible Donors and Partners
WMO/GCOS, FAO/GTOS, Space Agencies, Research funding Organizations
GEF, DFID, National governments
Project duration 5 years
14
3.4 Hydrological Observations Including IGAD- and SADC-HYCOS
3.4.1 Project Summary
The project aims at improving and/or developing the hydro-meteorological information status in
the Eastern and Southern Africa region through installation of a real- or near-real time data
collection, transmission and dissemination system. It will build capacity for data collection and
exchange for efficient integrated regional water resources management and disaster mitigation.
3.4.2
Introduction and problem analysis
The Eastern and Southern Africa region is characterized by deterioration in the capacity of the
National Hydrological Services (NHSs) to supply data and information on the state of their water
resources. This situation is attributable primarily to severe economic difficulties, prevalent
throughout the region, which have led to cuts in general public spending. It is also due to lack of
awareness of the economic value of hydrological information by many policy and decision
makers, which causes hydrological services to be perceived as a lower priority than many other
services, thus exacerbating under-funding. While there are many international river basins
shared by many countries, there is lack of integrated management in these river basins among the
riparian countries. There is need for improvement in regional co-operation, notably in the fields
of water resources information, flood and drought management, management of international
waters, land management and watershed protection.
To address these problems, the World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) was
launched in 1993. The SADC-HYCOS project, a regional component of WHYCOS, was
launched in 1998, and ten countries of the continental part of SADC participated. Its first phase
was completed in August 2001. At the end of the first phase, a real time data collection and
transmission system was installed in the participating countries. Data exchange and
dissemination systems, and electronic network have been improved and/or developed in the
region. In addition, a Regional Data base has been development at the Project Regional Centre.
The IGAD-HYCOS project, planned for implementation within the IGAD countries, has similar
objectives as the SADC-HYCOS project.
3.4.4
Justification
Climate variability is responsible for hydro-climatic disasters, such as floods and droughts. To be
able to manage and mitigate these disasters and to carry out proper regional assessment to detect
climate trends, adequate and accurate hydro-meteorological data and information is required.
However, data are currently unavailable or scarce in the Eastern and Southern Africa Region due
to lack of adequate data collection and transmission networks, skills and facilities.
3.4.5
Objectives
The overall objective of the project will be to strengthen the National Hydrological and
Meteorological Services of the region through capacity building, resource monitoring, database
management and information dissemination and exchange. It will consolidate the benefits of the
IGAD- and SADC-HYCOS, and increase awareness on the socio-economic value of hydrometeorological information and products.
15
3.4.6







Installation of a network of real or near-real time hydro-meteorological data collection and
transmission system through the satellite, at a specified time interval.
Improve and upgrade the existing hydro-meteorological network to an optimum status
Support to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in developing and/or
improving their hydro-meteorological databases and establish a regional hydrometeorological database.
Improvement and enhancement of the data dissemination and exchange network in the
region.
Capacity building in data collection, transmission, dissemination and database management.
Develop partnership through collaboration in maintenance, data processing and
dissemination.
Awareness creation among policy and decision makers and the general public.
3.4.7

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








Activities
To install of DCPs in each of the participating countries.
To rehabilitate the existing hydro-meteorological stations.
To upgrade some of the existing stations so that they transmit data in real or near-real time.
To provide hardware, software and the training necessary for establishing and/or improving
the national hydro-meteorological database and set up a regional hydro-meteorological
database at one of the existing institutions in the region.
To set up e-mail, Internet and other electronic facilities at each of the NMHSs.
To provide training in DCP installation, operation and maintenance; satellite transmission;
electronic network; database management; and data processing.
To develop hydro-meteorological products for end users or specific sectors such as early
warning
To initiate partnership between NMHSs and other stakeholders in network maintenance, data
processing and dissemination.
To organize workshops, seminars and public rallies on the importance of hydrometeorological equipment, data and information.
3.4.8






Specific Objectives
Outputs
A network of 100 DCPs in the Eastern and Southern Africa countries.
An optimum network of hydro-meteorological stations.
An increase in the number of stations transmitting data in real or near-real time.
An operational hydro-meteorological database at national and regional levels.
All NMHSs in the region linked through an electronic communication system.
Personnel in the NHSs equipped with skills in DCP installation, operation and maintenance;
satellite data transmission; data processing and database management.
Products of natural and regional interest.
Policy and decision-makers and the general public made aware of the economic value of
hydro-meteorological data and information.
16
3.4.9




Contribution to GCOS Goals
Improved and reliable hydro-meteorological water resources data and information
availability and dissemination in the region.
Enhancement and facilitation of regional cooperation through data and information
exchange.
Development of adaptive and sustainable strategies and actions in response to the adverse
effects of climate change such as poverty, food security and environmental protection.
Capacity building, awareness creation and a coordinated institutional framework in water
resources monitoring, and data management, exchange and dissemination in the region.
3.4.10 Budget
No.
Output
Activity
1.
2.
Network of 100 DCPs in the region
Optimum network of Hydro-met
stations
Increase in the number of stations
transmitting real or near real-time data
 Operational
national
hydrometeorological databases
 Skilled personnel in database
management
Install 100 DCPS
Rehabilitation of existing stations
(20 stations @ $1000 for 25 countries)
Upgrading of some existing stations
625,000
(5 stations x $5000) x 25 countries
To provide hardware, software, training
62,500
 25 PC @ 2500
 Software (1 copy per country @ 25,000
$1000)
12,000
Training of 50 people
30,000
 Training fee
30,000
 DSA
 Travel
To set up a regional database
20,000
 Equipment
3,000
 Installation costs
To set up e-mail/ internet and other
electronic facilities (25 countries x 500)
12,500
To provide training in DCP installation, O
& M, satellite transmission, electronic
network, data processing and products
150,000
3.
4.
5.
Operational
regional
Hydrometeorological database
6.
All NMHSs linked through electronic
communication
7.
NMHS staff equipped with skills to
install, operate and maintain DCPs as
well as for satellite data transmission;
data processing; products
8.
Awareness creation among policy
makers and end-users on the economic
value of Hydro-meteorological data and
information
TOTAL
3.4.11
To organize workshop, seminars and
public rallies
 Workshop, seminars
 Pamphlets, brochures etc
Budget
(USD)
1,000,000
500,000
250,000
125,000
2,845,000
Potential donors and partners
The World Bank, European Union, CIDA, The Netherlands Government, SIDA, WMO, Global
Water Partnership (GWP), NMHSs
17
3.5
Oceanographic Observations in Support of GCOS and Integrated Coastal
Management
3.5.1
Project Summary
The Western Indian Ocean needs a network of observing stations providing routine, systematic
and sustainable coastal and oceanographic data for monitoring long term changes of the marine
environment including local and regional sea level rise. The network should be complemented
with enhancement of capacity building and establishment of 1 or 2 centres of excellence using insitu and satellite data.
3.5.2
Introduction and Problem Analysis
The oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Indian
Ocean play significant roles in determining global patterns of climate change and variability.
Continuous long-term ocean observations necessary and crucial in understanding climate changes
and integrated management of coastal environment and resources are lacking in the Western
Indian Ocean region. The ocean component of GCOS, which addresses these issues, is being
implemented by GOOS through two modules – a coastal component and basin scale component.
Sea level stations installed at various locations in the region should be up-graded to incorporate
other meteorological and oceanographic parameters. These would form part of a network
including voluntary observer vessels, drifters, moored buoys, and ARGO floats. The in-situ
observations can be extrapolated in space using satellite observations. Ocean models provide the
tools to transform the observations into data products.
3.5.3
Justification
·
It is essential to develop and strengthen an ocean observing system to obtain appropriate
data and knowledge to address the problem of acute data shortage in order to monitor long
term changes of the marine environment and sea level rise.
·
A comprehensive set of ocean data is essential as input in the coastal and ocean models in
order to obtain reliable products for climate prediction for sustainable socio-economic
development.
·
Capacity should be built up to take advantage of a wealth of ocean data from remote
sensing e.g. MSG and JASON.
·
Data generated will be invaluable for integrated coastal management, including predicting
transport processes (pollution, erosion etc.), and understanding of ocean and coastal
ecosystems.
3.5.4
Goal and Objectives
The overall objective is to establish an ocean observing system, which will produce data, and
products that will address a broad spectrum of user needs such as shipping, farmers, fishermen,
recreation, tourism and government ministries for long term planning.
18
3.5.5
Expected Activities and Outputs
ACTIVITY
OUT PUT
BUDGET
Objective 1: Develop a coastal observing network
1.1 Establishment and upgrading of coastal Marine Wind, air pressure, temperature,
80,000
Meteorological Stations at 8 selected locations
rainfall, sea level, SST, Salinity,
turbidity, wave, current data.
1.2 Establishment and upgrading of 12 multi240,000
parameter sea level stations (in cooperation with
GOOS Africa)
1.3 Deployment of directional 8 wave rider buoys at
800,000
50m depth at coastal locations
Objective 2: Develop an open ocean monitoring network for meteorological data and surface and
subsurface oceanographic data
(possible linkage with Indian Ocean GOOS)
2.1 Procurement and Deployment of 10 deep sea Surface
and
sub-surface 1,500,000
moored buoys at locations representing strategic meteorological and oceanographic
ocean process in the Western Indian Ocean
variables
2.2 Procurement and deployment of 15 ARGO
750,000
floats
2.3 Procure and deployment of two arrays of
1,800,000
moored buoys from 10N-10S at 50E and 65E
longitude
2.4 Recruitment and equipping of about 20
200,000
voluntary observing ships
2.5 Recruitment and equipping of about 5 Ships of
50,000
Opportunity
Objective 3: Simulation and forecast meteorological and oceanographic processes
(possible linkages with Modeling group and GOOS Africa proposal).
3.1 Adapt and develop models that can be Coastal wave, SST, current and seal20,000
customized for the coastal ocean environment
level topography products and
forecast
3.2 Adapt and develop regional models
20,000
3.3 Strengthen capacity at national institutions to
125,000
enable them adapt and run models
3.4 Identify and Strengthen capacity at an existing
50,000
regional centre
Objective 4: Improve access and use of remotely sensed data
(possible linkage with Remote sensing group and GOOS Africa proposal).
4.1 Identify a centre of excellence for coastal and SST, Ocean colour, sea surface
20,000
marine remote sensing
topography, waves products and
forecast, and bathymetry.
Objective 5: Enhance the capacity of the meteorological and oceanographic institutions in the region to
collect, analyze, interpret and archive ocean data.
5.1 Provision of hardware and software for data Trained manpower to improve data
20,000
management
analysis and products.
5.2 Provision of training 40 scientists
800,000
5.3 Provision of training 24 technicians
240,000
19
3.5.6
Contribution to GCOS Goals
These five specific objectives will contribute to the implementation of the ocean component of
GCOS in the region to improve climate forecast and monitor climate change and sea level rise.
3.5.7
Partners and potential donors
GEF, IGAD, ICSU, IOC, IOC-UNESCO, SADCC, UNDP, UNEP, WMO, World Bank,
Countries from the region and outside (Australia, France, India, Japan, Norway, UK USA).
20
3.6
Remote Sensing Products in Support of GCOS in Eastern and Southern
Africa region
3.6.1
Project Summary
Measurements of meteorological/atmospheric, oceanographic and terrestrial variables provide
essential data for detecting and attributing climate change. This data is necessary for monitoring,
understanding and predicting climate change and climate variability. It is also useful for
developing strategies to ameliorate the potential harmful effects of climate change and climate
variability. The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) surface Network (GSN) and GCOS
Upper Air Network (GUAN) are two critically important meteorological networks used for such
measurements. However, observations from these networks are currently inadequate for the
purposes of detecting, attributing, monitoring and predicting climate change.
This project seeks to enhance the GCOS networks in the eastern and southern Africa (ESA)
region through the investigation of the use of remotely sensed data. This data will be integrated
with the data from the current GCOS to provide a more robust and efficient system. The
achievement of this goal will involve two main components including the science of conversion
of the remote sensing proxy data into measures of weather and climate variables, and targeted
capacity building to allow for effective utilization of the remotely sensed data.
3.6.2
Introduction and Problem Analysis
ESA countries are considered among the most vulnerable to the impacts and consequences of
human-induced climate change and, in particular, global warming and the associated potential
threats. It is, therefore, important to accurately monitor the weather and climate parameters over
the region. However, the surface and upper air network for observations of the individual
National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NHMSs) of the countries within the region,
which provide the foundation of Global Climate Observation System (GCOS) in the region, are
currently inadequate and have been deteriorating in recent years.
One way of addressing this problem is by looking into alternative sources of data that may be
used to compliment the records from the existing observation stations. One such source is
remotely sensed data, from satellites and radar, which provides proxy information. This project
seeks to enhance the use of the remotely sensed data in the measurement of weather and climate
variables for the ESA region
Reference is made to the GCOS Regional workshop held in Kisumu, Kenya from 3-5 October
2001, the Preparation for the Use of Meteosat Second Generation in Africa (PUMA)
recommendation 5.4 proposed that NMHSs develop regionally based new satellite products using
the increased and additional data and information from the new and technologically advanced
Meteosat Second Generation (MSG).
3.6.3
Justification
The satellite-based sensors provide a synoptic view of major parts of the globe at any given
instant. Although the sensor resolution may limit the details in some cases, the coverage attained
provides a denser and more evenly distributed observation network compared to the existing
21
surface and upper-air network. They also have the added advantage of better temporal resolution
depending on the altitude of orbit of the satellite platform. The weather radar also provides
continuous coverage of the weather situation spatially and temporally.
The remotely sensed data additionally have uniformity in extraction and can be distributed in
near real-time. They can also be useful in providing sufficiently dense, high quality
homogeneous data that maybe used to compliment the baseline global networks for the
monitoring of global climate. Additionally, the remote sensing data cover even the remote and
inaccessible areas and hence providing the necessary data that gives a more complete climate
picture of the region.
3.6.4
Goals and Objectives
The main objective of the project is to enhance the observing systems for weather and climate in
the Eastern and Southern Africa region by integrating remotely sensed data with the data
observed from the traditional stations. This objective will be achieved by meeting the following
specific objectives:
·
Develop methodologies for the conversion of remotely sensed data into measures of
weather and climate variables
·
Enhance the capacity of the region for the effective utilization of remotely sensed data in
the monitoring of weather and climate.
3.6.5








3.6.6

Activities
Organization of the available “in situ” data including the MSG products to be used in the
model development and “ground truth” validation for all the countries within the eastern
and southern Africa region.
Development and validation of models to convert the proxy remote sensing data into
measures of weather and climate variables (for the comprehensive ESA network).
Identification of the remote sensing parameters to monitor for baseline climate network
for ESA.
Awareness creation campaign programs for “policy makers” and users to expose them to
the available remotely sensed data and their applicability in weather and climate
monitoring.
Regional training workshops for national trainers on:
- The developed estimation techniques to convert the remotely sensed proxy data
into measures of weather variables.
- Validation and application of the developed models for use in respective member
countries.
Missions to the national centers to assess the national implementation process.
Assess, develop and implement appropriate capacity building programs for national
Internet connectivity and database capability, as well as for setting up a regional database
of remotely sensed data.
Assess and improve the capacity of the region for the use of weather radar in monitoring
weather and climate variables.
Expected Outputs
Validated models for use of conversion of the satellite-derived data into measures of
various weather and climate variables for all of the derived climatological zones.
22






3.6.7
Developed national policies allowing for the use of the remotely sensed data alongside
the traditional observations in weather and climate monitoring.
Remote sensing parameters for baseline climate monitoring.
A regional server archiving all the relevant remotely sensed data.
Enhanced national capacities for effective utilization of remotely sensed data in
monitoring weather and climate variables including the use of weather radar network.
A regional network of remote sensing institutions.
Published research papers in peer-reviewed journals.
Contribution to GCOS Goals
GCOS has a two-stream strategy, each with specific requirements, which takes into account the
range of requirements for climate data. Comprehensive global networks provide data that are
assimilated in global models to generate real-time predictions and delayed-mode reanalyses of
global climate. Remote sensing data have a major contribution to the comprehensive networks,
as they can provide genuinely global coverage.
Baseline global networks provide high-quality homogeneous data that are used to monitor global
climate and to calibrate data from the comprehensive networks. These data are relatively sparse
compared with the comprehensive networks. However, they are required to be sufficiently dense
to ensure that large-scale climate indicators can be generated from them for all key climate
variables. Remote sensing data systems can play a crucial role in this stream. For example,
baseline systems can be maintained for MSU radiances and the solar constant.
3.6.8
Proposed Budget
Budget Line
I. Development of Models
II. Human Capacity Building
Regional Workshops
Missions to national centres
III. Equipment
Regional
Server
including
software
National computers & Software
Installation and/or rehabilitation
of the Radar Network
TOTAL
3.6.9
Cost (US$)
100,000
160,000
75,000
70,000
40,000
1,500,000
1,945,000
Potential Donors and Partners
EU through EUMETSAT, Space Agencies, PUMA, IGAD, SADC, DMCN, DMCH, NMHSs,
Budget
23
3.7
Capacity Building for Climate Data Management Systems (CDMS) in Eastern and
Southern Africa region.
3.7.1
Project Summary
This project develops strategy for the implementation of appropriate Capacity Building to
develop and sustain Climate Data Management Systems (CDMS) in Eastern and Southern
Africa (ESA). This will facilitate provision of a full and sustainable set of Climate Data for
monitoring Climate variations and changes and also support the data generated by GSN,
GUAN and other observing stations. The full CDMS is defined by the following working
components:



Data Collection and Processing;
Data Archiving;
Provision of Data Services.
3.7.2
Introduction and Problem Analysis
The challenge for Climate Data Management Systems (CDMS) in all ESA countries is that
we require a sustainable and full set of Climate Data. A degree of compatibility between the
Data Bases of countries is also necessary. However, the frequent and necessary upgrades of
hardware/software and training place considerable stress on available budgets. Consequently,
their capability to fulfill their obligations to maintain a good quality database becomes
altogether inadequate. Unique and valuable data sets are often difficult to access or, at worst,
are lost completely
Thirteen skills, vital for managing the different components of the CDMS are:
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
To identify the most appropriate hardware and software to support the required
CDMS that is compatible with existing national systems and systems in other
countries;
To install and maintain the hardware/software system;
To control and authenticate the flow of data from its source at the observation
station to its storage on a relational data base and on a back-up system;
To apply proper and adequate quality control of the data at basic and at more
advanced levels. This includes proper knowledge and application of WMO
guidelines.
To write and support application programs that will make data available for
customers in a format that they require;
To be able to interact with relational databases;
To write and/or update training manuals for the system;
To undertake research on evaluation of data and climate variability;
To access (Rescue Data) climate data in obsolete formats and is at risk of being
lost. (DARE)
To maintain Meta data systems
To run inventory and Data audit programs
To advice and / or maintain the transmission of Climate Data
To advise decision-makers of the desirability on forming Regional Climate
Centres in order to address compatibility of data in the region and to use limited
skills more productively.
24
3.7.3
Justification
Climate data is required for decision makers to improve planning for a nation’s infrastructure, for
monitoring climate current trends and extremes that impact on the socio-economic infrastructure
and for research into climate variability and change. Climate data is unique and its value,
nationally and globally, increases if the data set is full and can be extended in time series and the
network expanded.
Most of the required resources are scarce and in especially the case of the skills required to
manage data and databases. The responsibility lies with each NMHS to build up and retain these
skills in order to safeguard the unique and valuable data set that we have.
In order to meet the national and global (GCOS) requirements for climate data and especially for
the long term sustainability of data services the appropriate capacity building to develop and
maintain a CDMS is vital.
3.7.4
Goal and Objectives
The main GOAL of this project is to identify the vital skills that are necessary to implement
and manage a CDMS as well as those required to maintain and improve the system for the
future.
Specific Objectives



Review the vital components required for sustainable CDMS
Seek and identify the skills required for each competency as defined;
Suggest suitable courses and estimated costs including, mentoring opportunities,
inside and outside ESA;
Ensure compatibility of the CDMS with the existing national systems, regional
institutions like the DMCs, and systems in other countries.
Investigate possibilities for improved collaboration within ESA by development and
support for Climate Data Management Centre(s);
Implementations of appropriate Capacity Building in all the 25 ESA countries to
ensure sustainability of CDMSs.
Rescue Data, which is in danger of being lost.




3.7.5
Activities

Survey of potential CDMSs and appropriate Training Courses:

Investigation for the possible support for the expansion of the DMCs and/or the
development of a Regional Climate Centre (RCC):

Prepare Business Plan and implement appropriate Training in the twenty-five NMHSs in
the ESA Region.
Carry out a survey on the Data Rescue needs of the twenty-five countries.

25
3.7.6








Survey
Clear definition of CDMS required by NMHSs in ESA;
List of appropriate and recommended training courses and institutions necessary to fully
support the CDMS in the ESA;
Business Plan and Budget Template for use by countries who wish to prepare for suitable
Capacity Building Programmes;
Investigation for support for Data Management Centre(s)
Recommendation on possible expansion of the DMCs or the development of Regional
Climate Centre (s) so as to promote collaboration, compatibility, joint capacity building
and sustainability of the CDMS’s in the region.
Implementation of Training Programme at the NMHSs
Fully operational and sustainable CDMS in each of the NMHSs in ESA.
3.7.7


3.7.8
Outputs
Contribution to GCOS Goal
Support the GCOS by ensuring the integrity and sustainability of Climate Observing
Systems and Databases by means of suitable and obtainable training and skilled
personnel.
Improve the service of climate data and information to customers.
Estimated Budget
OUTPUT
Survey
Investigation for support for Data Management Centre
Implementation at NMHSs
TOTAL
3.7.9






US DOLLARS
50 000
55 000
5 000 000
5 105 000
Potential Donors and Partners
GEF through GCOS initiative;
UNEP for Capacity Building projects;
Partnerships with other country NMHSs (developed & developing) offering their system
as replacement for CLICOM 3.1;
Contributing Partnerships between NMHSs within the ESA region;
Shared use of training facilities already in place within ESA;
Linkages with the DARE project.
26
3.8
Improving Telecommunication Facilitities for Climate Data
Collection and Exchange in Eastern and Southern Africa
3.8.1
Summary
Global data collection is achieved through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Global Telecommunications System (GTS). The eastern and southern Africa is served by
Nairobi, Pretoria, Lusaka and Cairo RTHs, which collect and retransmit data from the National
Meteorological Centres (NMCs). The efficiency of the GTS affects timely availability of data
and products, and real time exchange of regional and global meteorological data and products.
The efficiency of telecommunication facilities is, therefore, central to timely data availability and
to the operations of the observation network. Observations made at stations in the region often
cannot be transmitted due to lack of telecommunications services. The timely availability of data,
not only affects the real time operations of meteorological services, but also the other weather
and climate related activities. Issues related to availability of observations cannot be solved
without addressing telecommunication needs. The objective of this project is to rehabilitate and
improve the GTS facilities, and build capacity for its maintenance.
3.8.2
Introduction and problem analysis
The data collection and exchange in the region is affected by inadequate funds to operate,
rehabilitate, repair or replace obsolete telecommunication equipment; insufficiently trained staff
for equipment maintenance and operation; and high tariff for telecommunication services. The
deficiencies in the operation of the GTS also affect the timely flow of climate products and
warnings making the communities in eastern and southern Africa to continue to be vulnerable to
extreme weather and climate events, and suffer poverty. The assessments of regional and global
climate change may not be realistic if the data used in the models are inadequate and not
representative. The objective of this project is to rehabilitate and improve the GTS facilities, and
build capacity for its maintenance.
The operation and implementation of the GTS in the region has continued to be unsatisfactory.
The unsatisfactory operation and implementation of the GTS contributes to non-availability of
data from the region needed for efficient climate analysis and the provision of meteorological
services, not only in the region, but globally.
3.8.3 Justification
Efficient data movement and exchange of products is central to achieving the majority of
regional and global plans such as efficient climate system monitoring and climate change
detection, availability of climate data for developing advisories and products for economic
development, improved understanding, modeling and prediction of the climate system,
international Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), mitigation of impacts of climate change,
food security, poverty reduction and revival of economic growth in the majority of countries in
the region amongst many other plans and policies.
3.8.4
Objectives
27
The overall objective of this project is to rehabilitate and improve the GTS facilities, to enhance
human resource capacities for the GTS operation and maintenance, and thus improve data
availability in the region. The project addresses data collection and retransmission at national,
regional and global levels.
The Specific objectives are:

Rehabilitate data collection facilities for the GSN and GUAN

Reduce the operation costs for data collection and retransmission.

3.8.5
Improve the capacities of NMHSs to repair and maintain telecommunication
facilities.
Activities
(a)
National Level
–Replace obsolete equipment for the GSN and GUAN,
–Facilitate the use of e-mail for data collection at NMCs and RTHs
–Conduct trials on the effectiveness of digital HF/SSB for Fax/data transmissions.
–Automate GSN and GUAN
-Replace or install AMSS equipped with facilities for automatic request and retrieval of data
from observatories at NMCs to improve the efficiency of data collection and retransmission.
-Factory training on equipment, personnel exchange through attachment programs, training of
more personnel on repair and maintenance of electronic, telecommunications and facilities
(b)
Regional and Global
–Convert all analogue lines to digital lines
Rehabilitate or implement the following links:
–Cairo –Khartoum
–Nairobi-Addis Ababa
–Nairobi – Dar es Salaam (Facilitate conversion from analogue to digital)
–Nairobi-Cairo (convert from X25 to TCP/IP)
–Nairobi-Pretoria (convert from X25 to TCP/IP)
–Lusaka – Pretoria (facilitate conversion from analogue to telephone)
–Lilongwe-Pretoria (facilitate conversion from analogue to digital)
–Maputo – Pretoria (establish a reliable link).
-Replace or install AMSS equipped with facilities for automatic request and retrieval of data
from observatories at NMCs and RTHs to improve the efficiency of data collection and
retransmission.
-Upgrade or replace inefficient lines with more efficient lines by taking advantage of advances in
technology.
-Explore the use of VSAT and frame relay networks for data exchange in the region.
-Set-up a regional repair and maintenance centre for telecommunications and electronic facilities.
3.8.6
Expected Outputs and contribution to GCOS Goals
The key output from the above activities is an efficient and cost effective telecommunication
system, which would improve data availability for climate change monitoring, analysis,
prediction, and skilful climate outlooks and projections of climate trends and mitigation of
possible impacts. The proposed centre would improve the sustainability of equipment deployed
in the region for efficient exchange of data and products.
28
3.8.7
Budget
Rehabilitate data collection 84 GSN and GUAN Stations at US$2000
facilities at the GSN and GUAN EACH
stations
IMPLEMENTATION &UPGRADING OF
LINKS
10 GUAN AT US$2,000
Subtotal
Reduce the operation costs for
AMSS at RTHs
data collection and
retransmission
AMSS at NMCS
Subtotal
Improve the capacities of
EXCHANGE PROGRAM
NMHSs to repair and maintain
telecommunication facilities
STUDY TO ESTABLISH THE REGIONAL
CENTRE
Subtotal
3.8.8
US$ 168,000
US$ 40,000
US$ 20,000
US$ 228,000
US$ 600,000
US$ 450,000
US$ 1,050,000
US$ 40,000
US$ 20,000
US$ 60,000
Potential donors
The project funding may be sorted from various institutions including:
– The WMO Voluntary Co-operation Programme (VCP)
– The National Meteorological/Hydrological Services.
–The regional and sub-regional groupings
–Global Environmental Facility (GEF)
–The European Union in extension of applications of satellite products
–International Telecommunication Union
–Relevant ongoing national, sub-regional and regional projects
– Any other regional and international institutions addressing relevant activities.
3.9
Education, Awareness, Training and Curriculum Development on climate change
3.9.1
Project Summary
This project will focus on education and public awareness, as well as training at the community
level in order to better equip people with knowledge about the importance of climate observation
to enable them to better manage socio-economic problems linked to climate variability and
change. Through improving the education of children and youth by strengthening the school
curricula on climate-related issues and training of the community in a targeted manner, the
project will seek to induce action at various levels to use climate information in a more effective
manner. Those actions should thus contribute to improving the climate observing systems in the
region as an essential basis for tackling climate change and variability issues including the
implementation of the UNFCCC.
3.9.2
Introduction and Problem Analysis
People are an important resource and their constant learning is imperative. People need to be
better educated and informed about climate change and variability issues in order to enable them
29
to deal effectively with the problems that result from adverse climatic conditions, which include
disasters such as the impacts of El Nino.
3.9.3
Justification
Climate variability and extreme weather events are also being affected by climate change,
although there are still many uncertainties regarding the issue. However, the world will certainly
continue to experience extreme weather events and their adverse impacts. As seen from the
1997-1998 El Nino, climatic variability can have disastrous impacts on the socio-economic
systems. Countries and their peoples need to be better prepared for changes in climate and
weather events to minimize disruptions to their activities and losses resulting from them.
3.9.4
Goals and Objectives
The main objective of the project is to improve public awareness and education in the field of
climate change with a focus on the importance of observational data as a basis for tackling the
issue of climate change. Training at the community level needs to be addressed to ensure that
various communities are also aware of the climate change and variability issues and the use
climate data and information acquired through systematic observations. Awareness needs to be
raised at various levels of the society about the importance of climatic information for improved
management of their socio-economic activities.
3.9.5




Education at the primary and secondary level: Examine the current primary and secondary
school curricula and design and incorporate climate change issues ensuring that the
importance of climate observation and data is addressed. Appropriate learning material to
be designed.
Education at the tertiary level: Incorporate climate change issue and the importance of
climate observation into courses run by universities and technical colleges. Appropriate
courses will be designed and convened in key universities and technical colleges. New
learning materials will be designed, available learning materials will be acquired (where
possible, information materials will be acquired through international organizations) and
national as well as international experts will be invited as appropriate to deliver lectures.
Public awareness: Identify and educate stakeholders (communities, decision and policy
makers) to raise their awareness about the importance of climate observations in finding
solutions to socio-economic problems linked to climate change and climate variability. The
media will also be targeted to enable dissemination of information that will contribute to
bridge the gap between climate scientists, the policy makers and the general public.
Activities will include:
Regional Centre for Capacity Building: Establish a regional centre for capacity building in
the field of climate change. The centre should act as a "one-stop shop" to backstop the
efforts being made by countries in the region on climate change capacity building. The
centre will provide the information on available information material, useful international
and national contacts, and organize meetings to enable exchange of information and
experience among countries.
3.9.6

Activities
Expected Outputs
Education at the primary and secondary level: (i) updated school curricula, (ii) updated text
books and other learning material, and (iii) school children better educated in the field of
climate change
30

Education at the tertiary level: (i) updated or new courses incorporating climate change
issues, (ii) new or updated learning material, and (iii) better educated tertiary level students.

Public awareness: (I) training material for target groups of stakeholders, (ii) better educated
general public, (iii) better informed media, and (iv) various articles/programmes on climate
change in the media.

Regional Centre for Capacity Building: regional centre established
3.9.7
Contribution to GCOS Goals
Sustainability of climate monitoring will be achieved after people are sensitized about climate
issues.
3.9.8
Budget
1. Education at the primary and secondary level:
Designing and producing appropriate learning material
2. Education at the tertiary level
Inviting national and international experts to give lectures
3. Public awareness (for five selected countries)
Designing and producing training material for target groups
Workshops with target groups
Media meetings
Workshop for policy makers
4. Regional Centre for Capacity Building (per year)
Grand total
3.9.9
250,000
250,000
775,000
250,000
250,000
125,000
150,000
30,000
1,305,000
Potential Donors and Partners
UN and other international organizations including UNEP, WMO, UNITAR, UNDP, Bilateral
donors, NGOs, Government ministries and institutions.
4. OTHER DRAFT PROJECT PROPOSALS OF REGIONAL IMPORTANCE
This section summarizes projects that are considered to be of regional importance but may not
necessarily fall within the mandate of GCOS action plan ESA.
4.1
Mt. Kilimanjaro, Mt. Kenya, and Mt. Ruwenzori glaciers
4.1.1
Project Summary
The project investigates the influence of mountain glaciers (GTN-G) on the climate of Eastern
and southern Africa. The main objective is to establish a reliable, consistence and sustainable
glacier observing system for Mt. Kenya, Mt. Kilimanjaro and Mt. Ruwenzori. This will be
accomplished through monitoring of glacier volumes and spatial extent through ground and
satellite based methods. Study of the past climatic conditions of the region from the glacier ice
core records will also enhance our understanding of region's climate dynamics.
4.1.2
Introduction and problem analysis
31
Tropical glaciers and ice caps play an important role in the cryospheric processes of the climate
system. The heat and mass budgets of the glaciers and thus the vertical net energy balance
influence the regional climate and hence the climate system. The spatial and temporal
distribution of ice is, through conditions of heat and ice balance budget, related to the local and
large-scale climate patterns. Climate forcing contributes to glacier responses. The Atmospheric
heat budget drives the ice accumulation dynamics, which in turn influences glacier advance or
retreat. Therefore glaciers can be good indicators of climate change.
Accumulated mountain ice and glaciers are good archives of historical climatic conditions.
Tropical mountain glaciers show much less spatial consistency in the Holocene compared to the
Last Glacial Maximum and deglacial periods. Evidence of a cold period in East Africa at 2,000
yr BP is provided by similar estimated ages for moraines on Mt. Kilimanjaro.
The glaciers on Mt. Kenya, Mt. Kilimanjaro and Mt. Ruwenzori are significant contributors to
river flows emanating from these mountains. These rivers include Tana and the Ewaso Nyiro
that originate from Mt. Kenya, Pangani and Tsavo River from Mt. Kilimanjaro. Large variations
in the glacier volumes would significantly impact the flow regimes. Although there have been ad
hoc studies by Hastenrath (1991), Karlen et al (1999), Wood (1976), Livingstone (1962) and
Perrott (1982), no systematic efforts aimed at monitoring of the glaciers exist.
Recent studies indicate a decline in the spatial extent of Mt. Kenya and Kilimanjaro glaciers.
There is therefore need for systematic observation of this important climate change indicator.
The glaciers of Mt. Ruwenzori have been studied to a lesser extent.
4.1.3
Justification
The continued decrease of volume and spatial extent of the glaciers both in the context of climate
change impacts leading to possible water resources and ecological (among other socio-economic)
impacts necessitate systematic monitoring of the glaciers.
4.1.4 Goals and Objectives
Establish a reliable, consistent and sustainable glacier observing system for Mt. Kenya, Mt.
Ruwenzori, and Mt. Kilimanjaro. The specific objectives include:
 Monitoring of the glacier volumes and spatial extent through ground and satellite based
methods.
 Monitoring of weather parameters.
 Studying the past climatic conditions of the region from the glacier ice core records.
 Determine the glacial contribution to the flow levels of the rivers.
4.1.5 Activities
 Survey existing activities and set up automated observing stations on Mt. Kenya, Mt.
Ruwenzori, and Mt. Kilimanjaro. Parameters to be measured include depth and spatial
extent of glaciers and weather elements, particularly geometry-forced incident radiation.
 Sampling and analysis of ice cores
 Set up automatic hydrological gauging stations at the start of the rivers.
 Set up of a regional database
 Modeling of glacial, climatic and Hydrological changes
 Capacity building. A number of scientists and technicians to be trained.
 Monitoring through remote sensing regularly
 Determine the social-economic impacts of the model outputs/analysis and communicate them
to policy makers and the general public
32
4.1.6 Outputs
 Established reliable, consistent and sustainable glacial observing systems for Mt. Kenya, Mt.
Kilimanjaro and Mt. Ruwenzori.
 Better understanding of the coupling between climate and glacial dynamics
 An understanding of the past climatic conditions of the region using glacial records
 Understanding the glacial contribution to river flows emanating from the mountains
 Understanding the socio-economic impacts of glacial and climatic changes
 Capacities built in glacial science and technology.
4.1.7




Contribution to GCOS Goals
Meteorological services to be in charge of the operational aspects of these observing stations.
Regional Centre (DMCN) to host the database. A fee be levied from the users of the product
outputs by the National Meteorological services.
Enhancing early warning system for climate and water resources changes.
Ensuring consistence and reliable availability of glacial depths and extent to climate
modelers and water resource managers.
4.1.8
Budget
ACTIVITY
US$ (annual)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
300,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
30,000
100,000
-----------------580,000
=======
New Observation Network
Regional database
Modeling
Capacity Building (annual)
Remote sensing activities
Consultancy Services - Socio-economic impacts
TOTAL
4.1.9
Potential Donors/Partners
WMO (GAW), GEF, IGAD/SADC, Water Ministries in the various countries, Agriculture
Energy Ministries, Ministries of Environment, Ministries Tourism, DMC-N/DMC-H
NMSS, Universities/Research institutes, Local authorities, SCOTT Institute, University of
Cambridge
33
4.2
Establishment of an Urban Observing System
4.2.1
Introduction
Urban areas in the Eastern and Southern African region are growing rapidly into mega cities.
The main driving factors for these growths are rural to urban migration associated with
economic, opportunities, industrial growth associated with national policies of rapid
industrialization to create employment and alleviate poverty.
The degradation of urban environment can have serious impact on the communities living there.
This project will contribute to socio-economic development in the region by producing
information that can be used to make informed decisions in urban planning, environmental
management, disaster management, industrial development and raising community education and
awareness.
4.2.2
Justification
This growth is resulting into serious degradation of the urban environment and development of
urban climates that are significantly different from regional climates. The urban growth in the
region may therefore be contributing significantly to global change in a way that is presently not
well understood. There is, therefore need for sustainable urban observation systems in the
region.
4.2.3
Goal and Objectives
The goal is to contribute to improved health and welfare of urban communities through
dissemination of urban environment information that can be used for environmentally sound
urban planning and development and also to better understanding of interaction between growing
urban area and global environment.
The main objectives are:


To build technical and institutional capacity for effective and sustainable observations of the
urban area.
To establish urban observation systems and the Eastern and Southern African region.
4.2.4









Activities
Identification of implementing institutions in each country on the basis of its overall
mandate that includes urban observations.
Identification of collaborating institutions in each country on the basis of their facilities and
stake holding and potential to use the information for their planning and development
activities.
Selection of scientists and technical personnel who will undertake project activities.
One large urban area will be selected in each of the 25 countries.
Capacity building through regional and country workshops.
Undertaking studies on urban growth characteristics.
Undertaking inventory of pollution sources in the urban areas.
Identifying climate parameters to be measured.
Identifying and assessing suitability of any existing observation stations for inclusion into
the data acquisition process.
34









Acquiring equipment for urban observation systems.
Establishing criteria for selecting observation sites.
Establishing collaboration with local authorities for necessary authorization and security of
equipment.
Installing climatological and pollution measuring equipment.
Undertaking campaign measurements of some important air pollutants.
Utilizing available satellite systems for selected urban parameters such as air pollution
transport fields and humans settlement patterns.
Establishing methodologies for data analysis and packaging for different users.
Holding technical workshops for regional scientists for evaluation of information.
Holding national workshops for stake holders for information dissemination and dialogues
4.2.5









Outputs
Implementing and, collaborating institutions and personnel in each participating country are
identified.
Technical and institutional capacity in the region is enhanced.
Target urban areas in the region are identified.
Growth characteristics in the selected urban areas are determined.
Urban observing systems are selected on the basis of their suitability for operation in the
tropical regions.
Urban climate observing systems are installed in the participating countries.
Urban air pollution monitoring systems are installed.
Packaging of information for use by stakeholder institutions is finalized.
Information is received by stakeholder institutions for use in planning and development.
4.2.6
Contribution to GCOS
Because climate in large urban areas may contribute significantly to the observed regional and
global climate and also that global warming and climate change may impact negatively on the
urban environments, urban climates should be continuously observed and form a component of
GCOS.
4.2.7
Budget
Assessment of capacity needs
Regional training workshops (2)
Country workshops for institutions (25)
Studies of Urban growth (25)
Inventories of pollution sources (25)
Preparation and production of public education
Programmes and materials (25)
Automatic weather stations (25)
Air pollution monitoring stations (25)
Campaign measurements (25)
Hard and soft ware (25)
Travelling and field work
Operation expenses and equipment maintenance
Project management and co-ordination
TOTAL
US$
50,000
80,000
150,000
50,000
120,000
250,000
250,000
280,000
150,000
80,000
90,000
250,000
120,000
2,020,000
35
Project duration
4.2.8
36 months.
Potential donors
Include Habitat, WMO/TRUCE, EU, SIDA, CIDA, JICA, USAID
36
4.3
Monitoring of the Inland Lakes as Indicators of Climate Change
4.3.1
Project Summary
Inland lakes of Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) are important components of the climate and
water resources over the region. Further majority of the region's population live around these
lakes and heavily depend on the lakes' resources for their livelihood. Changes in the inland lakes
would be useful indicators of regional and global climate change which, as they are likely to
translate into far reaching implications. This project will address the enhancement of the
monitoring of inland Lakes variables in order to contribute to GCOS efforts in ESA to climate
change issues. The project is also expected to contribute to the sustainable development and use
of Lakes’ marine resources, the protection of the Lakes’ marine environment and better longterm planning and management of the impacts of climate variability and change. The project will
ultimately contribute to GCOS by providing data for climate change detection and impact
assessment as well as supply data to the Regional Surface Network (RSN).
4.3.2
Introduction and Problem Analysis
The ESA lakes are extremely important with regard to many socio-economic activities of the
region. They are a source of water and modify the general circulation patterns of the region. The
lakes are extremely vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change. Any shift in the lakes water
balance components (precipitation, evaporation, inflow outflow) would affect the lakes'
conditions to the detriment of development in the region. There is also need to examine the lakes'
proxy records so as to get background information on the lakes conditions with regard to climate
change detection. Given that Weather and climate transcend national boundaries and that some of
these lakes are shared among some countries in the region, a regional strategy is required to
establish the infrastructure and resources for efficient monitoring of the lake conditions so as to
ensure sustainable use of the lakes' resources as well as manage threats from perceived impacts
of climate change or variability.
4.3.3
Project Justification
The lakes are vulnerable to impacts of climate change. Further, due demographic pressures
coupled with the high rate of natural resources consumption, the productive land and resources
are becoming scarce. The Lakes’ marine resources will be increasingly relied upon. Sustainable
use of these resources can therefore be achieved through a well-managed exploitation of the ESA
inland lakes marine environments. Hence monitoring of meteorological and hydrological
parameters in these lakes is important for the management of their resources in order to ensure
sustainable development in the region.
4.3.4
Goal and Objectives
The overall objective of the project is to contribute to the conservation and sustainable use of the
lakes’ marine resources based in the region and forester environmental protection and socioeconomic development through improved application of lakes marine meteorological data and
products. The project would enhance our understanding of the climate of the region. Specific
objectives include:




Enhancement of the lake observation network.
Capacity building
Systematic collection, exchange and analysis of data for selected parameters
Infrastructure enhancement for effective data exchange
37
4.3.5
Activities
1.
Strengthen existing observing network with upgrading old equipment and installation of
new observing systems where possible and carry out an inventory of existing data as well as what
is being done with regard to the lakes under study.
2.
Specialized trainings in practical aspects of marine meteorology/hydrology, data
collection, instrumentation and quality control
3.
Measurement of the following parameters Lake levels Rainfall and evaporation (over the
lakes and shores) Lake outflows and inflows, Sedimentation, Pollution and turbidity
4.
Establish direct data transmission links from observing stations to operational
centers, which will be identified.
5.
Monitoring lakes conditions by use of remote sensing technology for impact
assessment purposes
4.3.6
Expected Outputs
o
Availability of reliable lakes' data observation network and an inventory of
existing data as well as what is being done with regard to the lakes under study.
o
Availability of skilled human resources for practical aspects of marine
meteorology/ hydrology.
o
Availability of an updated and expanded regional data bank on lakes' marine
meteorological/hydrological data for enhanced applications.
o
Availability of an efficient and effective communication network for data
exchange
Availability of remote sensing products for impact assessment purposes.
o
4.3.7
.
Project Contribution to GCOS Goals
The project will contribute to GCOS by providing data for climate change detection and impact
assessment as well as complement the Regional Surface Network (RSN). This will constitute a
regional contribution to the GCOS goal that calls for the assessment of priority observing system
needs required to enable countries to overcome deficiencies in observing systems and allow them
to collect, exchange and utilize data on a continuing basis in pursuance of the UNFCCC. It will
also contribute to the role and importance of GCOS to facilitate, with other stakeholders,
systematic observation regionally.
4.3.8
Budget
Activity
Requirements
1:Rehabilitation of
existing observation
Networks and inventory
2: Capacity building
Replacements
equipment.
Estimated cost
per lake (US$)
of
obsolete
Training of 4 technicians to
man the observation network
@ 5,000
100,000
20,000
38
3: Enhanced lake
observations
 Lake
measurements

Rainfall
evaporation
measurement

Inflow/outflow
measurements
4: Communication
Enhancement
level 3 Ott water level recorders
each in a stilling well steel
pipe @ 5,000
and 6 (AWS) @ 10,000
4 current meters @ 3,000
Links between observing
stations and operation centers
including PCs networks and
software.
TOTAL
4.3.9
15,000
60,000
12,00
64,000
274,000
Potential Donors and Partners
GEF, UNFCCC financial mechanisms, World Bank, Nile basin initiative, OSIENALO, LVEMP,
FAO, IGAD, LVFO.
39
4.4
Methodologies for Climate Change Monitoring,
Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation Assessment
4.4.1
Project Summary
Detection,
Attribution,
It is recognized that climate change has adverse impacts in many socio-economic sectors. The
recent Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC indicates that developing countries will be
hit first and hardest from adverse impacts of climate change because of their low adaptive
capacity.
Understanding and establishing the vulnerability of nations to climate change and identifying the
best adaptation options for developing response strategies in various socio-economic sectors is
one of the main challenges in the climate change process. There is also a need to detect and
document long term climate trends in the region. Lack of access to data, lack of methodologies
and tools, inadequacy of technical expertise and skills to apply methodologies and tools are the
main constraints in meeting these challenges in the Eastern and Southern African countries.
The Project aims to build capacity that will lead to improved understanding of the vulnerability
of the region to climate change and the development of response strategies for various socioeconomic sectors and climate change indicators by improving the availability of quality
controlled research data sets for key variables, methodologies and tools as well as expertise for
undertaking climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments including climate change
monitoring, detection, and attribution.
4.4.2
Introduction and Problem Analysis
The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing rapidly as a result of
human activities and this is anticipated to cause rapid climate change. According to the Third
Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if steps
are not taken to reduce emission of greenhouse gases (i.e. if business as usual scenario
continues), the current mean annual air temperature of the earth will increase by 1.4 – 5.8 0
before the end of the 21st century. Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88
meters between 1990 and 2100. Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events are also
expected to change. Such drastic changes of climate in a short span of time are expected to have
adverse impacts on the socio-economic development of nations.
The IPCC TAR also indicates that developing countries will be hit first and hardest from the
adverse impacts of climate change because of their low adaptive capacity. We have already seen
the vulnerability of developing countries from current climate extremes disrupting the whole
economy and development plans (e.g. flood in Mozambique in 2000).
Important inputs for undertaking research in vulnerability and adaptation such as data, tools and
methodologies, technical expertise and skills to apply these tools and methodologies are
inadequate in the region. Many countries in the region may have long-term historical data in their
national archive but they may not have organized a quality-controlled data set for
representative/reference stations in a suitable format that can serve the needs of the research
community in vulnerability and adaptation. In many cases access to such data has already
become a problem in the region. Climate monitoring, detection and attribution methodologies
vary from country to country. Countries also have made climate change vulnerability and
adaptation assessments under various programs such as US country Program, the GEF climate
change-enabling Program, using different approaches and methodologies. This heterogeneity in
40
methodologies and lack of standards has led in some cases to different conclusions and created
difficulties to make comparative analysis. Therefore more detailed assessments and studies using
comparable methodologies and tools are required to further explore potential climate change
impacts and identify appropriate adaptation options for the countries of the region.
4.4.3
Justification
The Climate Convention commits all Parties to assess their vulnerability to potential climate
change and identify adaptation options that could enable to cope with adverse impacts.
Concentrations of Greenhouse gases have already increased in the atmosphere and it is going to
increase in the time to come. This implies that global warming is inevitable and adaptation will
be essential. In this regard improved understanding of the vulnerability of the region to climate
change and the development of response strategies for various socio-economic sectors is of
paramount importance.
The analysis carried out by the Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) established under the
Convention found that non-Annex 1 Parties had many difficulties in applying IPCC Technical
Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. Many of these difficulties
relate to the suitability of methods and tools, lack of national capacity to apply them, lack of data
and a lack of institutional frameworks and financial resources required to undertake vulnerability
and adaptation assessments. Quite a number of our natural resources, coastlines and water
resources are also shared and this justifies the case for regional/and or sub-regional vulnerability
and adaptation studies.
4.4.4
Goal and Objectives
The overall goal of the project is to enhance capacity to respond to the continuing and emerging
challenges of climate change in the region.
The specific objectives of the project are:

To improve availability of quality-controlled research data sets for key variables such as
temperature and rainfall in the region, for the purpose of climate change monitoring,
detection and attribution and also for vulnerability and adaptation studies.

To ensure availability and application of consistent standards, methodologies and tools for
vulnerability and adaptation assessment as well as for monitoring, detecting and attributing
climate change

To enhance expertise in integrated climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments
and in climate change monitoring, detection and attribution including scenario development
at the regional and national level.

To improve the understanding of the vulnerability of the region to climate change and to
promote the incorporation of adaptation options in development plans including the
application of climate information for decision making in various socio-economic sectors
4.4.5
No
Activities and Time Plan
Activities
Year
1
Year2
Year3
41
A
Make a review and survey of V & A studies already made in the X
region including methods and tools and identify gaps and make
recommendations on indicators
Make a review and survey of climate monitoring, detection and X
attribution actives in the region and elsewhere including methods and
tools used for these purposes and identify gaps and make
recommendations on indicators
Develop quality controlled data sets including climate change
Scenarios using outputs from latest General circulation models
(GCMs) and socio-economic scenarios that can be used for
Vulnerability /impact and Adaptation
Identify and develop a set of indicators that can be used for
monitoring and detection of changes in the climate of the region
Identify, adapt and acquire suitable methods and tools to undertake
national/regional vulnerability and adaptation assessment
Training of experts in the region on methodologies and tools for
climate change monitoring, detection and attribution.
Training of experts in the region on suitable methods and tools for
climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments
Undertake selected regional and/or national studies on climate
change vulnerability and adaptation including studies on extreme
events and how these events will respond to global warming, and
how natural and human system respond to changes in the magnitude
and frequency of extremes events.
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
4.4.6
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Output

Synthesis of research and studies done so far in the areas of climate change vulnerability and
adaptation including Climate Change monitoring, detection and attribution in the region and
identification of gaps.

Availability of quality-controlled data sets including climate change Scenarios using outputs
from latest General circulation models (GCMs) and socio-economic scenarios as well as
availability of suitable methodologies and tools that can be used for Vulnerability/impact and
Adaptation research, Climate Change monitoring, detection and attribution in the region.

Enhanced national and regional expertise to apply methodologies and tools to carryout
Vulnerability and Adaptation studies as well as Climate Change monitoring, detection and
attribution in the region.

Identification and establishment of climate trends in the region using long-term quality
controlled historical data set

Improved understanding of the vulnerability of the region to climate change and
identification of best adaptation options climate change scenario for the region will be
developed.
4.4.7
Contribution to GCOS Goals
42
GCOS has been established to ensure the availability of data for climate monitoring, climate
change detection and attribution as well as for vulnerability and adaptation studies. Therefore the
objectives of this project are very much in line with the purpose of GCOS. It can be said that the
outcomes of this project will constitute some of the final products (fruits) of GCOS activities.
4.4.8
No
Budget
Activities
Budget
Remark
(USD)
Make a review and survey of V & A studies already
100,000 Up to 10 experts from the region
made in the region including methods and tools and
can be nominated as consultants
identify gaps and make recommendations on indicators
to make the review for various
socio-economic sectors
Make a review and survey of climate monitoring,
20,000 Two experts can be nominated
detection and attribution actives in the region and
as consultants
elsewhere including methods and tools used for these
purposes
and
identify
gaps
and
make
recommendations on indicators
a)
b)
c)
Develop quality controlled data sets including climate
change Scenarios using outputs from latest General
circulation models (GCMs) and socio-economic
scenarios that can be used for Vulnerability /impact
and Adaptation research, Climate Change monitoring,
detection and attribution in the region.
750, 000 30, 000 per country
d)
Training of experts in the region on methodologies and
tools for climate change monitoring, detection and
attribution.
100, 000 One regional workshop
e)
Training of experts in the region on suitable methods
and tools for climate change vulnerability and
adaptation assessments
f)
Undertake selected regional and/or national studies on
climate change vulnerability and adaptation including
studies on extreme events and how these events will
respond to global warming, and how natural and
human system respond to changes in the magnitude
and frequency of extremes events.
Grand Total
4.4.9


(DSA and travel costs for 25
participants (one per country) +
fees
for
trainers/resources
persons, tools and venue
800,000 Up to 8 regional workshops on
various socioeconomic sectors
25
participants
in
each
workshop (one per country)
1,250,000 50,000 per country is estimated
and each country may undertake
studies up to three priority
socio-economic sectors
3,020,000
Potential Donors and partners
Global Environmental Facility (GEF)
European Union (EU)
43




United States country study Program
USAID, GTZ, SIDA, FINIDA,
UNDP, UNEP, WMO
Any of the developed country parties to the UNFCCC
44
4.5
Modeling and Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios over Eastern and
Southern African region
4.5.1
Project Summary
This project intends to provide climate change scenario products at regional scales by using
existing database and downscaling techniques. This will be achieved by examining the various
General Circulation Models and regional models that best describe the climate patterns over
Africa and use them to determine regional climate change scenarios as well as the regional
impacts resulting from such scenarios. This project is expected to contribute to the overall GCOS
goals through enabling the monitoring and detection of climate variability and change for impact
assessment studies, which are in line with the UNFCCC. It is envisaged that the capacity of the
member countries to effectively use and apply regionally downscaled model outputs will greatly
be enhanced by the end of the project.
4.5.2
Introduction
Climate Models are critical tools in the development of Climate Change projections into the
future. These models are basically computer simulations that incorporate the basic physics and
dynamics of the climate system, which take into account the interactions between the different
components of the climate system. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the major tools
required in the construction of climate change scenarios. Substantial development in GCMs has
occurred since the production of the Second IPCC Assessment Report and confidence in the use
of these models on a global and regional scale has also received much attention worldwide. The
major disadvantages of the GCM are that, although they tend to reasonably represent the global
climate output, their simulations of regional climate are often insufficient, and hence
downscaling techniques are more preferred for climate impact assessment.
4.5.3
Problem Statement
The following issues were noted to be of major concern in the region:
 There is insufficient data for modeling climate change scenarios;
 There are no dense observational network that is critical in the simulation of climate
change scenarios and model verification;
 There are no specific General circulation Models with reasonable skill to capture the
climate system over our region;
 There is lack of sufficient trained personnel and research work within the region in the
field of climate change modeling;
 There is a huge deficiency of socio-economic data (such as population growth,
demography, energy intensity/efficiency, economic growth, emission policies, etc) that
may be required in climate change impact assessment.
4.5.4


Justification
It is envisaged that the implementation of skillful global and regional climate models,
which adequately simulate the circulation dynamics over Africa, will throw light onto
how the continent and its sub-regions contribute to global circulation.
The potential effect of climate change on the African continent still remains uncertain in
many GCMs and therefore there is need to develop capacity and database for the
development of climate change scenarios.
45

4.5.5
The regional downscaled outputs from climate models are known to be critical in
deriving most climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation strategies for the
various countries.
Goals and Objectives of the Project
The major objective of this study will be to provide climate change scenarios products at regional
scales while the specific objective will be to assess the impacts of the climate model outputs on
socio-economic activities of the various countries within the region.
4.5.6
Specific Activities and Outputs
ACTIVITIES
Review of past and on-going activities on climate
modeling
Acquire the necessary workstations for climate
change scenarios in the region
Identify, evaluate and validate appropriate GCMs
for use over our region.
Identify and customize regional climate models for
downscaling climate change scenarios from GCMs
for vulnerability assessment studies
Building Capacity (training of personnel) of the
region to run simple climate change scenarios.
OUTPUTS
Review of past and on-going activities on climate
modeling achieved
Workstations acquired and located at a selected
regional Centre.
Appropriate GCMs Identified.
Regional and local climate change scenarios
identified and vulnerability assessed
Scientific and technical support staff trained
Regional centers have the necessary capacity
to run climate change models
Enhancing
research
in
climate
change, Research team on climate change within the
vulnerability and adaptation within the region.
region developed.
Develop appropriate linkage with other world Linkage with other world climate research centers
climate research centers.
developed.
Conduct local and regional workshop to address Conduct local and regional workshop to address
the key scientific findings of climate change the key scientific findings of climate change
modeling in the region.
modeling in the region.
4.5.7


Potential Donors/Partners
DONORS
WMO- World Meteorological Organization
PARTNERS
WMO - World Meteorological Organization
GEF-Global Environmental Facility
ECMWF-European Centre for Medium Range
Weather Forecasting
UK-Met Office
IRI-International Research Institute
NCAR
-National Center for Atmospheric
Research
GFDL -Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
UNDP- United Nations Development Program
UNEP-United Nations Environmental Program
FAO-Food and Agricultural Organization
USAID-United States Agency for International
Development
EU-European Union
Bilateral donors
Respective Governments
NCEP-National Centre for Environmental
Prediction
GISS-GODDARD Institute for Space Science
South Africa, Morocco and Egypt.
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4.5.8
Contribution to GCOS Goals
This project is expected to contribute to the overall GCOS goals through enabling the
monitoring and detection of climate variability and change for impact assessment studies
that are in line with the UNFCCC.
4.5.9
Project Duration
The Project is expected to last over a period of three years.
4.5.10
Proposed Budget
ITEM
Developing database for regional modeling within the 25 countries
Equipping the 25 countries with relevant Software/Hardware and
networking
Regional/Local Training (Capacity Building)
Regional and Local Socio-economic impact assessment
Regional and Local Workshops
Stationary for 25 countries
Total
Contingencies 10% of Total
GRAND TOTAL
AMOUNT
(IN US $)
75,000
80,000
200,000
20,000
200,000
30,000
605,000
60,500
665,500
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Appendix
List of Acronyms
ACMAD:
African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development
AMDAR:
Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay
AMSS:
Automatic Message Switching System
ASDAR:
Aircraft to Satellite Data Relay
CCl:
Commission for Climatology (of WMO)
CLICOM
Computers for Climate
CLIMAT:
Monthly surface climate summary report
CLIVAR:
Climate Variability (study of WCRP)
COP:
Conference of Parties (to UNFCCC)
DARE:
Data Rescue
DCP:
Data Collection Platform
DMCH:
Drought Monitoring Centre, Harare
DMCN:
Drought Monitoring Centre, Nairobi
ESA:
Eastern and Southern Africa
EUMETSAT: European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites
FAO:
Food and Agriculture Organisation
GAW:
Global Atmosphere Watch
GCOS:
Global Climate Observing System
GEF:
Global Environment Facility
GEMS:
Global Environment Monitoring System
GEWEX:
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
GLOSS:
Global Sea Level Observing System
GOOS:
Global Ocean Observing System
GOS:
Global Observing System
GTN-G:
Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers
GTN-H:
Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology
GTN-E:
Global Terrestrial Network for Ecology
GTOS:
Global Terrestrial Observing System
GTS:
Global Telecommunication System
GSN:
GCOS Surface Network
GUAN:
GCOS Upper-Air Network
ICSU:
International Council for Science
IGAD:
Intergovernmental Authority on Development
IGOSS:
Integrated Global Ocean Services System
IOC:
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (of UNESCO)
IPCC:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LVEMP:
Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project
MSG:
Meteosat Second Generation
NMHS:
National Meteorological and Hydrological Service
PUMA:
Preparation for the Use of Meteosat Second Generation in Africa
RBSN:
Regional Basic Synoptic Network
RSMC:
Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
SBSTA:
Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (of UNFCCC/COP)
SST:
Sea Surface Temperature
UN:
United Nations
TOPEX:
Ocean Surface Topography Experiment
UNCED:
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
UNDP:
United Nations Development Programme
48
UNEP:
UNESCO:
UNFCCC:
WB:
WCASP:
WCDMP:
WCIRP:
WCP:
WCRP:
WIOMAP:
WMO:
WHYCOS:
WWW:
United Nations Environment Programme
United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
World Bank
World Climate Applications and Services Programme
World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme
World Climate Impacts and Response Strategies Programme
World Climate Programme
World Climate Research Programme
West Indian Ocean Marine Applications Project
World Meteorological Organization
World Hydrological Cycle Observing System
World Weather Watch
49