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Comparison of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Between China and the U.S. DING Juanjuan, ZHANG Wenping North China University of Technology, China, 100144 [email protected] Abstract: Under the pressure of rise in global temperatures, carbon dioxide emission has become one of the themes the world most focus on. This paper compares the energy-related CO2 emissions between China and the U.S. by the new method of CO2 emissions per unit square land. The results showed that the energy related CO2 emissions in China and the U.S. had comparatively large negative external influences to the world. For the reason that the two countries should launched into wider international technical cooperation with other countries to reduce carbon emissions and protect human environment on the basis of improve energy efficiency and energy structure. Keywords: CO2 emissions per unit square land, external influences, energy saving and emission reduction 1. Introduction Greenhouse gases damage normal relations of the infrared radiation between the atmosphere and the ground by absorption of infrared radiation released from the Earth and prevention heat from escaping the earth, so that the earth occur palpable temperature rise. Climate change is not only has direct and serious impacts on the natural environment and human survival, but also will indirectly bring more serious problem such as water shortage, agriculture problems and even social issues. [1] The Fourth Assessment report of IPCC indicates that global average surface temperature increased by 0.74 . [2] Because of the impact of temperature rise, the global sea level has risen by 10-25 cm. Therefore, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and prevent further global warming become one of the topics the world's most concerned about. Carbon dioxide is considered as the main cause of greenhouse effect and human activities is the main source of current carbon dioxide emissions. The Fourth Assessment report of IPCC points that since the industrial age, human-induced global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 70% during the period of 1970 to 2004. Because of the economic growth and continuously depending on traditional fossil fuels, the global energy-related CO2 emissions increase year by year. Figure 1 shows that energy-related CO2 ENERGY RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS 32,000 emissions had increased from 18.49 billion tons in 1980 to 30.38 billion tons in 2008. In the past 30,000 29 years energy-related CO2 emissions had 28,000 increased by 64%, which directly led to the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. IPCC points 26,000 that global atmospheric CO2 concentration had 24,000 significantly increased from pre-industrial level 22,000 of about 280ppm to 379ppm in 2005 because of human activities. The greenhouse effects of any 20,000 country's CO2 emissions not only affect this 18,000 country, but affect the whole human living 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 environment. We should control the world's YEAR total emissions which mean control CO2 Figure 1 Energy-related CO2 emissions of the world concentration from the global point of view. CO2 ( Million Metric Tons ) ℃ 269 In the relationship of carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature change, Perit J R, Jouzel J and Raynaud D (1999) , Marland G, Boden T A and Andres R J 2007 pointed out that their had significant correlation between the earth's surface temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide ~ concentrations. [4] [5]About the impact of energy use to CO2 emissions and environment, ZHU Chunjie, MA Zhongyu, WANG Can and LIU Zigang (2006) argue that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions had a absolute advantage in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The research of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have already been one of the hot spot. [6] YANG Yonghua, ZHU Dajian, HU Dongjie and WANG Chen hold that extensive use of energy lead to serious deterioration to the quality of environment. The United States and China are the two largest countries in energy-related CO2 emissions. This paper will have a comparative analysis to these two countries by index of by CO2 emissions per unit square land. And then we have suggestions in accordance with the conclusions obtained. ( ) 2. Comparisons between China and the U.S. in Energy Efficiency and Energy-related CO2 Emissions 2.1 Energy efficiency China's economy is in a period of the acceleration time in the process of industrialization, so the main driving force of economic is the energy-intensive industry. Energy consumption and growth will be in a higher level in all the process of industrialization. Moreover, major energy-consuming industries are generally low in energy efficiency. [3]Energy efficiency of the U.S. has the same growth trends to China. However, the U.S. efficiency is generally higher than that of China. As can be seen from Fig.2, China’s growth rate of energy efficiency had a rapid growth in about 2000, and then slowed down to average level. China, which is in advancing stage of industrialization, theoretically should be higher in energy efficiency growth rate than the U.S. which has been very well developed in industrialization. However, the two countries have the same growth rate in energy efficiency. This means that the energy efficiency of China needs faster improvement. 2.2 Energy-related CO2 emissions The energy-related CO2 emissions of China have rapid growth in 1960—2008. Especially since 2002, the energy-related CO2 emissions have a faster growth than the historical time. However, from fig.2 we can see that the efficiency growth rate of energy consumption in this period is slow. Extensive use of energy and low energy efficiency are the main cause of the CO2 emissions’ growth. The energy-related CO2 emissions of the U.S. have a rapid growth prior to 1979, and then have an average growth level. The energy-related CO2 emissions of China exceed the U.S. finally in 2006. 270 ENERGY RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS GDP PER UNIT OF ENERGY USE 7,000,000 6 6,000,000 5 CO2 (KT) GDP / E ($ / KG) 5,000,000 4 3 2 3,000,000 2,000,000 1 1,000,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 0 1960 2005 CHINA 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR YEAR AMERICAN AMERICAN Figure 2 GDP per unit of energy use 3. 4,000,000 CHINA Figure 3 Energy related CO2 emissions The Indicator of Measuring Countries CO2 Emissions and the Disadvantage 3.1 Total quantity of CO2 emissions When measuring the CO2 emissions pollution among countries by total quantity of CO2 emissions, we may ignore the different situations such as population, region and the stage of historical development. Countries of populous and countries in rising stage of social development have more CO2 emissions because of human activities. And usually, the countries of large area can hold up much CO2 emissions. If controlling the CO2 emissions by the indicator of total quantity, it may not only constrain the economic development of countries but also cause distortion of reduction policy. 3.2 Carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP One of the most common used indicators of measuring CO2 emissions of a country is carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP. The mathematical expression of which is as follows, CO2 GDP So the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP have a relationship to two indicators of CO2 emissions and GDP. However, when comparing the impacts of CO2 emissions on the environment by using carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP, it can only explains a country’s carbon dioxide emissions intensity but can not explains a country’s CO2 emissions pollutions. Carbon dioxide emissions pollute the atmosphere, and if there has more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the more serious pollution to the atmosphere. Larger carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP does not mean lager quantity of CO2 emissions and heavy pollutions. For example, the CO2 emission of country A is M and GDP is N, the CO2 emission of country B is M and GDP is N/2. Then the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP of the two countries are M/N and 2M/N. The carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP of country B is two times as that of country A. But there is no difference between the two countries in total quantity of CO2 emission. Carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP can reflect a country’s carbon dioxide emissions intensity and the country’s technical level. 4. Empirical Analyze 271 In respect of independent development, how to accurately measure the CO2 emissions pollutions should be concerned now. Because of the differences carrying capacities of the countries to the CO2 emissions, it is scientific to use CO2 density in the atmosphere to measure CO2 pollutions. 4.1 Introduction of CO2 emissions per unit square land As is shown in the figure 4, given that the same height atmosphere is h; the area of a country is S, the atmosphere volume over the country is V, the Earth radius is R. The volume over a country can be approximately expressed as, 1 (R + h)2 − R 3 (1) V = S 3 R2 Because R and h are constants, so In the mathematical (2) expression (2), 1 ( R + h) − R m= is also constants. 3 R2 2 3 So the CO2 density in the atmosphere over a country can be approximately expressed as follows: Figure 3 the atmosphere volume CO 2 CO 2 over a country (3) d = = V mS Because the atmosphere volume over a country only has relationship to the land area of the country, the CO2 density in the atmosphere over the country can be expressed by CO2 emissions per unit square land as follows: d= CO2 S (4) 4.2 Analyze of CO2 emissions per unit square land between China and the U.S. According to the formula (4), CO2 emissions per unit square land of the world, China and the U.S. are calculated, the results shows as table 1. Table1 R ( CO2 emissions per unit square land t/km2 R World China Y China U.S. Y 1980 155.36 489.81 137.54 1994 1981 153.81 470.14 135.85 1995 337.73 1982 164.62 446.16 135.01 1996 1983 173.57 449.56 136.03 1997 1984 188.71 463.27 142.61 1985 204.57 465.08 145.86 1986 215.10 465.97 1987 229.51 485.54 1988 246.01 1989 249.94 ) U.S. World 541.84 162.70 541.48 165.29 353.48 552.66 169.04 349.24 567.78 172.19 1998 330.64 568.89 171.68 1999 345.48 576.45 174.01 148.88 2000 354.59 595.68 177.62 153.05 2001 363.20 583.96 178.82 506.81 158.12 2002 385.40 590.75 184.18 512.37 160.41 2003 453.22 590.13 193.21 272 312.29 1990 251.40 504.68 161.26 2004 530.88 601.52 205.47 1991 263.97 505.65 160.43 2005 585.69 606.01 211.80 1992 275.40 504.16 159.76 2006 635.44 596.77 216.04 1993 294.02 534.59 161.54 Data sources: World Bank. Y: year. : CO2 emissions per unit square land. R: region. CO2 / S ( t / square kilometer) Theoretically, if the CO2 density of a country or region is higher than that of the world average level, the CO2 emissions of this country or region would generate negative external influences to the other part of the world. CO2 density and CO2 emissions per unit square land is consistent with each other in comparing the influence of countries’ CO2 CO2 EMISSIONS PER SQUARE KILOMETER emissions to the world. Figure 5 shows the CO2 700 emissions per unit square land of China, the U.S. and the world in 1980 to 2006. 600 We can know from figure 5 that from 1980 to 2006 the growth trends and the quantity of 500 energy-related CO2 emissions per unit square 400 land of China and the U.S. are higher than the world average level. The two countries generate 300 negative external influences to the other part of the world from the point of view of 200 energy-related CO2 emissions. Considered from 100 the historical average level, the negative 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 external influences of the U.S. is higher than YEAR that of China. However, from the view of AMERICAN CHINA WORLD growth trends, China generates increasing negative external influence to the world. Figure 5 Energy-related CO2 emissions Energy-related CO2 emissions per unit square land of per unit square land China had exceeded the U.S. since 2006. We should pay attention to that although the growth trend of the world energy-related CO2 emissions per unit square land is much slower it has a continuous growth since 1980. All countries face the same problems which affect the survival environment of the whole human. Comparing the Figure 3 and Figure 5, we can find that the growth trends and the shape of energy-related CO2 emissions per unit square land of China and the U.S. are identical. So the total quantity of CO2 emissions may measure the CO2 emissions pollution of a country in appearance. Actually Figure 3 can not show the relationship of external influences of a country even though add the line graph of the total CO2 emissions of the world. This is because different countries face different emission space and large total emissions do not mean having negative external influences to other counties. , 5. Conclusion Comparing the energy-related CO2 emissions of China and the U.S. and then measuring which by CO2 emissions per unit square land, this paper makes the following recommendations in combining with the current international debate and consensus on energy saving and emission reduction. First of all, as the world's two largest countries of carbon dioxide emissions, China and the U.S. bring about comparatively large negative external influences in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. For the reason that the two countries should reduce total CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions per unit square land to eliminate negative external influences by assuming obligations of global emission reduction and improving energy efficiency and energy structure. 273 Secondly, countries should eliminate disputes and develop international cooperation. In respect for self-development, countries should objectively evaluate the CO2 emissions pollutions, launch technical cooperation in energy saving and emissions reduction to promote heavy carbon polluting countries as quickly as possible to eliminate the carbon dioxide emissions impacts to human. References [1]. WEI Yiming, LIU Lancui, FAN Ying, WU Gang. China Energy Report (2008): CO2 Emissions Research. Beijing : Science Press,2008:7 10(in Chinese) [2]. IPCC.2007. Climate Change 2007: the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. The intergovernmental panel on climate change. 2008. [3]. LI Shixiang, CHENG Jinhua. Study on the Energy Efficiency of China and its Determinants. Statistical Research,2008,25(10): 18 25(in Chinese) [4]. Perit J R, Jouzel J, Raynaud D. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420 000 years from the Vostok ice core in Antarctica.1999, Nature,399(6735):429 436 [5]. Marland G, Boden T A, Andres R J. 2007.Global, Regional, and National Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. [6]. ZHU Chunjie, MA Zhongyu, WANG Can, LIU Zigang. Analysis of difference features of energy-related CO2 emission in China. Ecology and Environment,2006,15(5):1 029 1 034(in Chinese) [7]. YANG Yonghua, ZHU Dajian, HU Dongjie, WANG Chen. Research on the model of relation between energy use and environment quality. Energy environmental Protection,2007,2(1):10 13(in Chinese) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 274