Download GHG Emission Reductions Targets and the Role for

GHG Emissions Reductions Targets and
the Role for TDM
Brian Hollingworth, IBI Group
2008 ACT Canada Conference, Halifax, Nova Scotia
Outline
• Climate change: the role of transport
• Strategies to reduce GHG emissions
from transport
• Case study: reducing emissions in the
Toronto area
• Conclusions
2
The Issue
Today, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, representing
the consensus of 1,500 scientists says:
• “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”
• “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.”
• “Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause
further warming and induce many changes in the global climate
system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than
those observed during the 20th century.”
• Therefore, we must stabilize concentrations of CO2 . How fast we
act will determine the level, and the impact on the climate.
3
The Response
• Governments are responding:
– Kyoto
– EU, country-specific targets
– Federal, provincial, municipal targets – all different
- Federal: 20% reduction from 2006 levels by 2020
- Ontario: 15% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020
- Toronto: 30% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020
– Some are not sufficient to stabilize CO2
concentrations, but all are ambitious
4
The Reality
5
Driving Emissions
• Transportation GHG emissions:
– Are the fastest growing source of GHG emissions
in the world
– 32% increase since 1990
– Account for 27 percent of Canada’s total GHG
emissions
• Transportation-related GHG emissions are
a major part of the global climate change
problem and must be reduced
6
1991 = 100
Breakdown of Trends
Source: National Inventory Report 1990–2004, Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada
7
Transit improvements are necessary but not sufficient
Relationship Between Auto and Transit Passenger-kilometres and GHG Reduction
5.5
300
Passenger km (billions)
250
200
30% reduction in
Auto Trips
150
100
450% increase in
transit trips
50
0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Percent Reduction in GHG Emissions
Automobiles and Light Trucks
Urban Transit
8
Need to consider the full range of strategies
Three types of GHG reduction strategies
for transportation:
•Travel Behaviour: Reduce vehiclekilometres travelled (km)
•Technology: Increasing energy efficiency of
vehicles (L/km)
•Reduced reliance on carbon intensive
energy: Decrease carbon content of fuels
(kg CO2e/L) or use alternative energy
sources
9
Travel Behaviour – Reduce VKT
• Reduce Trips
–
–
–
–
Encourage work at home
Facilitate walking and cycling
Road and parking pricing
Soft TDM measures (e.g., carsharing,
ridematching, parking cash out)
– Improve public transit
• Shorter trips
– Land use strategies to promote more
compact development
– Ensure activities are accessible locally
(Schools, shopping, etc.)
– Local consumption
10
Technology
• Increasing energy efficiency of
vehicles (L/km)
– Fuel efficiency standards
– Aerodynamic improvements,
speed limiters, and anti-idling
devices for trucks
– Policies to encourage purchase
of low-emission vehicles (e.g.,
hybrids) and technologies
11
Reduce Use of Carbon Intensive Energy
• Reduce Carbon
Intensity
– Targets for
alternative fuel use
– Support
development of
distribution network
for alternative fuels
– Encourage plug-inhybrid vehicles (in
combination with
clean electricity)
12
Potential GHG Reductions
Potential GHG Reductions of Policy Packages
Low Emission Vehicles
Alternative Fuels (50%)
Ecological Driving
Alternative Fuels (20%)
Local Production and Enhanced Logistics
Soft TDM Measures
Transit Investment and Compact Land Use
Pricing Regimes
Information and Communications Technology
Long Distance Travel Substitution
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Percent GHG Reduction from Transport (%)
Source: Hickman, R. and Banister, D. 2006. Looking Over the Horizon: Visioning and Backcasting for UK Transport Review
13
Case Study: Reducing Emissions in the GTHA
•5.8 million people in
2001…
•8.6 million in 2031
•48% more people =
48% more trips,
distances travelled,
and emissions?
What would it take to cut transportation GHG emissions
in half by 2031 in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area?
14
Target-Based Planning Approach
• Establish a vision and targets and work
backwards from there:
• Establish baseline and set
targets
• Develop BAU and alternative
transit/land use scenario
• Forecast travel demand and
emissions
A
B
C
D
• Assess additional strategies to
meet targets
15
Modelling Approach
• Passenger Travel Demand:
– 2006: Transportation Tomorrow Survey
– 2031: MTO Travel Demand Forecasting Model for
the Greater Golden Horseshoe
• GHG Emissions:
– Transport Canada Urban Transportation
Emissions Calculator (UTEC)
• “Well to Wheels”
16
2031 Scenarios
•Places to Grow land use
•Programmed highway improvements
•0.5% annual improvement in vehicle
efficiency
• Business-as-Usual
– Funded transit
improvements
• Major Transit Investment
– Network of higher order transit
lines across the region
• ~350 new km of commuter
rail/express rail
• ~800 new km of
metro/LRT/BRT
• Bring ¾ of population within
2km of rapid transit
17
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Mt CO2e)
Transit, Land Use, & TDM
21% Growth
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4%
-6%Growth
Growth
TDM
9.8 Mt
Target = 6.9 Mt
2006
2031 BAU
Transit
MajorMajor
2031
Transit
Investment
Investment
18
Strategies to Meet the 9.8 Mt Gap
Other Strategies (19%)
Ecodriving
Electric vehicles
Travel restrictions
…?
Transit Investment &
Compact Land Use
(23%)
Alternative Fuels
(10%)
Aggressive TDM
(14%)
40% Improvement in
Fuel Efficiency
(34%)
19
Meeting targets will require system-wide changes
• Major transit investment will only hold the line on GHG
emissions in the GTHA
• No silver bullet - we need to pursue lots of different strategies in
tandem
• Future conditions will have a large impact on the success of
individual strategies
• Each level of government has key roles to play
• Effect of enabling measures need to be considered: rising oil
prices, carbon pricing/trading
• New infrastructure, fleet turnover take time – we need to start
now
20
But reducing auto travel is still a key goal
• Reducing vehicle travel and using less oil are “noregret” moves
–
–
–
–
–
A “built in” reduced need to travel has long-term effects
More efficient and resilient companies and households
Lower costs to individuals – greater equity
Lower costs to governments – reduced infrastructure needs
Reduced human and financial costs from traffic injuries and
deaths
– Cleaner air, less incidence of cardio-respiratory disease
– More flexibility to switch to alternate fuels
21
In Closing…
• Weave GHG reduction into all decision-making
• Pursue all possible strategies including TDM
• Think systems-wide: try to resolve several
problems at a time; explore interconnections,
unintended consequences and rebound effect
• Creating a culture of innovation and action
must be the number one strategy
THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST.
22
Transit Scenarios
1200
Rapid Transit (km)
1000
Metro
800
Commuter Rail/
Express Rail
600
LRT/BRT
400
200
0
Existing
2031-BAU
2031-Modest
2031Intermediate
2031-High
23
Transit, Land Use, & TDM
2031-BAU
2031-Modest
2031-Intermediate
2031-High
Growth in Auto GHG Emissions from 2006
30%
20%
Transit and Land
Use
10%
Aggressive TDM,
Transit & Land
Use
0%
-10%
-20%
Additional GHG
Reduction Required
-30%
-40%
-50%
GHG Reduction
Target
24