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Urban Flood & Climate Change ----information from APWMF and SIWW Jinping LIU Hydrologist Typhoon Committee Secretariat 1/38 The Asia-Pacific Water Minister’s Forum (APWMF) June 28, 2010 Jointly organized by MEWR and PUB of Singapore , and in cooperation with APWF. Attended by Ministers and water leaders from 15 countries. Themed ‘Water Security—Good Governance and Sustainable Solutions’. Articulated the region’s water issues, policies and solutions. 2/38 Singapore International Water Week (SIWW) June 28 ~July 1, 2010. Inaugurated with 2nd World Cities Summit (WCS). Themed ‘Sustainable Cities: Clean and Affordable Water’ for SIWW. Themed ‘ Liveable & Sustainable Cities for the future’ for WCS. Around 10,000 participants from more than 100 countries and regions. 3/38 4/38 Today’s presentation Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change 5/38 Urban/rural population for less and more developed region 6/38 Urbanization - Tsurumi River Basin 1958 Urbanization Population increased by 1.7 Rate million in 40 years. 85% of the river basin urbanized. It has become a typical urban river. 1975 1975 1995 1995 Natural Urban 7/38 Influence of Urbanization on Flood Risk 8/38 Rainfall pattern is changed. 3400 2900 Heavy rainfall in a city of Japan (1990~1999) 2400 1900 1400 900 1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2001 Annual Precipitation in Macao in the period of 1901~2008 9/38 Hydrological response is changed. •Less infiltration •More runoff •Higher velocity •Shorter travel time •Higher peak flows •More frequent channel forming flow •Lower low flows = Extremes 10/38 Discharge Present Past Intensity mm/hr Flow Increase & Time of concentration Decrease 70 mm/hr frequency 1:50 yr 1:10 yr 20 60 duration Time 11/38 Today’s presentation Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change 12/38 Heavy Precipitation Events: Frequency increases over most areas Anomalies (%) of the global annual time series defined as the percentage change of contributions of very wet days from the base period average. Kobe, Japan 2008 (Prof. Toshio Koike, The University of Tokyo ) IPCC AR4 13/38 IPCC AR4 Projected changes in extremes: It is very likely that heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. > 90% 14/38 Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend. 15/38 Ratio of Daily 10year Probable Rainfall between 50 years later according to A1B and the current, from 17 models IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2(hires) GFDL-CM2.0 CGCM3.1(T63) CCSM3 MIROC3.2(medres) GFDL-CM2.1 CSIRO-Mk3.0 ECHAM5/MPI-OM ECHO-G GISS-AOM MRI-CGCM2.3.2 CNRM-CM3 PCM INM-CM3.0 CSIRO-Mk3.5 CGCM3.1(T47) Average=1.2 (from 17 models) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Araki & Koike, 2008 16/38 Design Rainfall Current Design Rainfall 1 Design Hydrograph Future Design Rainfall under Climate Change Discharge (m^3/s) 1.2 Hydrological Model Climate Change Current Climate T 17/38 Design Flood Control Future Design under Climate Change Current Design Target Flood safety level Current Flood safety level 1:150 1:80 Future under climate change 18/38 1:150 Uncertainty 1:80 Basin wide measures Climate Change Impacts on Flood Control Plan in Indonesia 10year Probable flood 50 years later 10year Probable flood Current Climate 19/38 Today’s presentation Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change 20/38 • In responding to Climate Change, investment for prevention under uncertain targets is extremely difficult, especially for developing countries. • The best option is to take an adaptive approach that build climate resilience into development strategies. • Adapting to What? – As the future is unknown, adaptation should be flexible, incremental and capable of incorporating changes based on new knowledge. – It should be a continuous process guided by sustainability concerns and address multiple needs. End to End Approach on Climate Change Adaptation Scientific approach Climate models Information ordinary water Flood control system ground water Storage drought Basin-scale prediction of quantity & quality Early warning Treatment Environ-ment Human life Industry Human Behavior Filed survey Economic Behavior Drought Disaster potential Innovative technology - Flood control - quality control implementation Integrated Observed Data Sets flood Adaptation options Decision making Down-scaling Flood Disaster potential Current facility, plan, management Impact assessment Multi-model ensemble (MME) Water quantity and quality prediction Water allocation & cost Process Study Quantifying uncertainty Socio-economical approach Engineering Approach Allocation policy Land use etc. Monitoring evaluation (Prof. Toshio Koike, The University of Tokyo ) 22/38 Rotterdam Climate Adaptation Strategy 1.0 CLIMATE PROOF ROTTERDAM .... Accessiblity City Climate Urban Water System Flood Management Adaptive Building Road map CLIMATE PROOF ROTTERDAM 2025 Action Implement Monitoring Assessment knowledge CLIMATE PROOF Rotterdam 2009 Arnoud Molenaar 23/38 Concluding Remarks • Climate Change, Urbanization and Urban migration are the greatest challenges for urban flood disaster risk reduction. • Flexible adaptive measures - adaptive adaptation should be mainstreamed. Innovative holistic approaches based on risk assessment are needed to achieve this. • Urban flood is not isolate issue. UFRM should be integrated with holistic urban system. • Urban flood is a kind of resources. UFRM is not to simply discharge flood out side of city, but to promote the beneficial and abolish the harmful. 24/38 “The Shapers of New Asia” “They include YOU and ME….” Thanks 25/38