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Water and agriculture in Europe
under a changing climate
Martin Parry
Imperial College London
[email protected]
Warming is
“
“unequivocal”
Rising atmospheric
temperature
Rising sea level
Reductions in NH snow
cover
THE KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF EUROPEAN
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Annual temperatures increase at the rate of 0.1 to 0.4C/decade
• Hot summers will double in frequency by 2020 (increase x5 in S.
Spain); 10 times as frequent by 2080
• Summers become drier in S. Europe
• Winters become wetter in N. Europe; and intensity of rainfall
increases
• Additional risks: possibility of change in the Gulf Stream; at
present little known about this.
Summer Precipitation
(only significant changes shown)
Acacia project
Daily maximum temperatures
Number of days per year above 30°C
UK Met. Office
Present
1
2080s
5
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 200
WATER AVAILABILITY, 2050s
(CHANGE IN ANNUAL RUNOFF)
Acacia Project
WATER AVAILABILITY
•
Increased availability of water in northern Europe; increased risk
of flooding.
•
Reduced availability of water in southern Europe.
•
And in the mountains: increased flood risk (20% increase of flood
risk in Alps
Impacts of reduced Summer
rainfall
• Reduced summer
rainfall will increase risks
of:
– Irrigation water shortages
– Reduced diluting of
pollution
– Reduced crop yields
– Soil loss on light lands
– Reduced water cooling
for power stations
Impacts of winter rainfall increase
• Heavier, more intense
winter rainfall will
increase risks of:
– River flooding
– Soil leaching
– Soil water-logging,
– Difficult access to land
for animals/machines
…
Effects on food production
Suitability for grain maize cultivation
with increasing temperature
Expansion of suitable
area with increased
temperature
+5°C
+4°C
+3°C
+2°C
+1°C
baseline (1961-1990)
unsuitable
NORTHWARD SHIFDT OF FARMING POTENTIAL
Suitability for grain maize, sunflower and soya, 2050s
red/brown/blue: suitability extension
green/yellow/purple: Baseline 1961-90
PRUDENCE
Changes in wheat yield, 2080
(amount of agreement between 9 regional models, A2)
Reduced yield in all models
Increased yield in all models
Models do not agree
Dry Danube
Croatia - fires
France: Several thousand
excess deaths
HEATWAVE
AUGUST, 2003
IN EUROPE
UK train tracks
buckle
COPA
Effects of 2003 summer heat wave on EU agriculture
France 4000 m €
(1500 m € for cattle)
Germay 1500 m €
Italy 4/5000 m €
Spain 810 m €
Fodder/cattle
Wheat
Maize
Austria 197 m €
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
Yield change (%)
-10
0
10
Farmed landscape, Eastern England, 2000
Increase in
renewable energy
sources
Northward
movement of
crops
Farm-scale biofuel power station
Introduction of biofuel crops
e.g. Miscanthus spp.
Univ of East Anglia, U.K.
Farmed landscape,Eastern England, 2050 ?
Europe in the context of
global climate change
Global
climate
change
Global
climate
change
First order impacts
on food production
First order impacts
on food production
Second order
effects on world
prices and demand
climate
change over
Europe
Second order
effects on world
prices and demand
Most key impacts stem from reduced water availability.
Changes in run-off, 21st century. White areas are where less than two-thirds of models
agree, hatched are where 90% of models agree (IPCC SYR)
Undefined
SI > 75 : Very high
SI > 63 : High
SI > 50 : Good
SI > 35 : Medium
SI > 20 : Moderate
SI > 5 : Marginal
SI > 0 : Very marginal
Not suitable
Water
-100
-88
-75
-63
-50
-38
-25
-13
0
13
25
38
50
63
75
88
100
Suitability for rain-fed cereals (reference climate, 1961-90).
Change in suitability for rain-fed cereals (HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s).
Cancun agreed
Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrial
1
2
3
$100 bn target
funding
Financed
adaptation
4
Emissions cuts pledged
at Copenhagen
Emission peak 2035; T
peaks 2100 at c. 3 deg C
mitigation
Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrial
1
2
Impacts not
avoided
Financed
adaptation
3
4
outcome
for current
pledges
Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrial
1
2
3
Impacts not
avoided
Financed
adaptation
TASK
1
TASK
2
4
outcome
for current
pledges
Conclusions (1) : Effects…
• Warmer in the north; drier in the south; intensification of rainfall;
increased frequency of extremely hot days or seasons.
• This implies more benefits to the north; more “disbenefits” to the
south.
• Will worsen current resource issues: e.g, more water shortage and
heat stress in south; and more flooding in the centre, north and
mountains.
• May aggravate current environmental problems: eg desertification in
south; soil leaching in north.
• = a south-to-north geographical shift of climate resources in
Europe; increasing the difference in regional resource endowment.
Conclusions (2) : Implications for policy
in Europe
• Need : a) a north-to-south shift of support policies to compensate for
shift of climate resources.
• Need: b) to “mainstream” climate change into EU policy development:
eg
i) into environmental policies, such as directives on water, policies on
desertification. (This has started).
ii) into regional support policies.
• In the global context, Europe faces less negative effects than most other
parts of the world, implying:
a) There may be an opportunity to increase Europe’s share of world food
production;
b) And, from the global viewpoint, it will be necessary to increase food
production in Europe in order to maintain global food security.
Programme of Research On Climate Change Vulnerability,
Impacts and Adaptation
http:// www.provia-climatechange.org
THANK YOU!
Programme of Research On Climate Change Vulnerability,
Impacts and Adaptation
http:// www.provia-climatechange.org
Professor Martin Parry
Grantham Institute, Imperial College London
Chair, Pro-Via Interim Scientific Steering Committee