* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download PPT 8.2MB - Department of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences
Myron Ebell wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Early 2014 North American cold wave wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
North Report wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate Change and Impact on Corn and Grain Quality Eugene S. Takle Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Director, Climate Science Initiative Iowa State University [email protected] 49th Annual Corn Dry Milling Conference, 29-30 May 2008, Peoria, IL Outline • Comparison of natural variability of climate and human induced climate change • Projections of future climate change • Impact of climate change on “regions suitable for rainfed agriculture”, including the US Midwest • What does this mean for agriculture and corn production in the US Midwest? CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years Natural cycles CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. IPCC Third Assessment Report Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2008 384 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2050 550 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm “Business as Usual” Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 950 ppm ? http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/glob-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Natural cycles Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007 Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007 Projected changes in precipitation between 1980-1999 and 20802099 for an energyconserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions IPCC 2007 Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature • Longer frost-free period (high) • Higher average winter temperatures (high) • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) • More freeze-thaw cycles (high) • Increased temperature variability (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models *Estimated from IPCC reports Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation • • • Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high) More water-logging of soils (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high) – More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) • Higher absolute humidity (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models *Estimated from IPCC reports Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other • Reduced wind speeds (high) • • • • Increased tropospheric ozone (high) Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high) Phenological states are shortened high) Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high) Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high) Plants have increased water used efficiency (high) • • Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports 2007 April Freeze Event Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270. 2007 April Freeze Event Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270. 2007 April Freeze Event Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270. 2007 April Freeze Event Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270. 2007 April Freeze Event Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270. Summary • Climate change since the 1970s cannot be explained on the basis of natural variation alone (consensus) • Greenhouse gases emitted from burning fossil fuels account for more than half of the current warming (consensus) • The warming already introduced will persist for more than a century (consensus) • Corn production will encounter some benefits and numerous challenges (my assessment based on consensus) • The US Midwest likely will suffer less adverse effects of climate change than many other major rain-fed agricultural areas (my assessment based on consensus)