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Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 1 The Earth’s Climate System Challenges and Advances with Geologic Data and Modeling Partnerships Caspar M. Ammann National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division [email protected] Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 2 International Geophysical Year 1957/58 “A very successful stimulus package for science” Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 3 IGY : Earth Science Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 4 Geomagnetic and Dating Techniques open doors to Geologic Time Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 5 IGY: Weather / Climate Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 6 Weather / Storm forecasts Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 7 Other breakthroughs: Reconstruction of Ocean circulation, … Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 8 Last 10-20 yrs : Abrupt Earth System Change Deep Time Quaternary Holocene Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System January 14, 08 Initiated / or accelerated by the IGY emerges a much more dynamic picture of the Earth System Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 10 True Global Reach of Humans Atmosphere Oceans "Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future.” Roger Revelle Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 11 Is this still simply a “geophysical experiment”? Greenhouse Gas Concentrations last 600,000 years CO2 - 20,000 years Methane Temperature CO2 Rate of Change unprecedented for probably millions of years! Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System IPCC 2007 12 3 Decades in Earth Observations and Change IPCC 2007: “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90% confidence) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 13 Why is it not natural? Climate has always been changing, naturally … Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 14 Tools to Study Effect of Change in CO2 • Climate Diagnostics and Analysis: Understand coupled Earth System with best observational data / Data Assimilation • Climate Models: Help to sharpen understanding of geophysical processes • PALEO: Using time perspective to test and corroborate Goal: Seamless understanding of Past-Present to build confidence in projections into the Future Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 15 Changes Across Scales Effect on Extreme Precipitation 1900 2003 Global-wide Glacier Collapse Golden, Mar 14, 2009 Global Sea Level Rise WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 17 Models are now “Partners” to Data ~150 km Viner (2002) Model Computation: - 15 minute time steps - 1 quadrillion calculations /yr Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 18 Climate Models circa early 1990s Global coupled climate models in 2006 Global models in 5-10 yrs Regional models Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 19 Continuously Improved Models CCSM: Climate Simulations WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 20 Performance of CCSM-3 Surface Air Temperature El Niño-Variability Model Model Observations Golden, Mar 14, 2009 Observations WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 21 High Resolution Ocean Models Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 22 Climate Modeler's Commandments by John Kutzbach (Univ. of Wisconsin) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Thou shalt not worship the climate model. Thou shalt not worship the climate model, but thou shalt honor the climate modeler, that it might be well with thee. Thou shalt use the model that is most appropriate for the question at hand. Thou shalt not change more than one thing at a time at first. In making sensitivity experiments, thou shalt hit the model hard enough to make it notice you. Thou shalt not covet fine-scale results with a coarse-scale model. Thou shalt follow the rules for significance testing and remember the model's inherent variability. Thou shalt know the model's biases and remember that model biases may lead to biased sensitivity estimates. Thou shalt run the same experiment with different models and compare the results. Thou shalt worship good observations of the spatial and temporal behavior of the earth system. Good models follow such observations. One golden observation is worth a thousand simulations. Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 23 Forcings used in Models • Present-day direct and indirect forcings • Past Geographies • LGM / LIG • Eocene • Cretaceous • Late Permian • Carboniferous Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 24 Simulations of the 20th century: Time All forcings Natural only Meehl et al. 2004 Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 25 Future Climate Projections Note: These are “What If” Scenarios, not predictions A2: 2020s A2: 2090s IPCC, 2007 Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 26 Simulation 20th and 21st Century Climate Models reasonably reproduce changes in: • Global and continental scale evolution of temperature • Vertical temperature profile • Atmospheric moisture • Heat content of oceans • sea ice retreat in all seasons •… NCAR CCSM: Gary Strand Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 27 Sea Ice : Observations and Model Projections 2000 ~2040 September Sea Ice Extent: Abrupt change potential! Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 28 Are we over-blowing the problem? … most likely not …: - emissions faster than projected - carbon cycle and nutrientsCanadel et al. 2007 speed of sea ice retreat? melting on ice sheets? weaker trends in models in some responses (precip)? - models in paleo applications: never quite the amplitude … Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 29 Goal of seamless understanding Past-Present-Future Ammann et al., 2007 Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 30 Last Interglacial (~130 ka): +6m sea level Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 31 Importance of a “Seamless” Integration of Paleo into Climate Change Research • • • • • How well do we understand the cause and magnitude of past changes? What effect on the Earth System did past changes have? Identify and study analogues to future Climate Change (PETM?, Cretaceous, …) Can we develop rigorous benchmarks for climate models on global and regional scales? … Goal: Further improve confidence in models projections regarding magnitude, spatial extent, hydrologic environmental impact Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System January 14, 08 Paleo Analogs for future temperatures? Future climates might resemble the past >40 Mio yr ago Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System January 14, 08 What’s Next? (AR5 ~2013?) Key Role for PALEO! ( 1 ) Long, multi-century projections to study Carbon Cycle Feedbacks, Sea Level Change ( 2 ) Very high-resolution simulations of the next 20-30 years for regional climate change prediction Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 34 Possible new CCSM Components for AR5 • Aerosols – Direct and indirect effects • Chemistry – Radiative and air quality issues • Dynamic Vegetation – Regrowth following disturbance, human landuse • Carbon & Nitrogen Cycle – Ocean & land biogeochemistry – Anthropogenic (transient) land use/cover • Land Ice Sheets – Sea level Rise & Abrupt Climate change Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 35 Future Sea Level and New Orleans (+1m) Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 36 New Focus on Regional Water Jan. 19, 2009 Colorado School of Mines: Sustainability 37 Changes in Seasonal Cycle of Snowmelt (T) and shifts in Jet-stream with change in Precip (P) Water from Snowpack in dry summer season? Barnett et al. 2008 Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 38 North American Precipitation and Hurricanes • 36, 12 and 4 km domains nested into CCSM • Multi-member ensembles for each period • Dedicated time on NCAR IBM Power 6 (Bluefire) since July: ~300 Tb of data (to date); 450 Tb total (including earlier runs) Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 39 CCSP 2.1a Mitigation Simulations Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 40 A modern science revolution with Models as Partners in Earth System Analysis: What important answers do we need from the past! • What can be learned about sensitivity of polar ice sheets? • How quickly can sea level rise? •How effective is the carbon cycle feedback? • How much did the tropics or subtropics change? • How does high atmospheric carbon affect ocean acidity, and how does acidity influence the ocean food chain? Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 41 Climate Change in Perspective 1. Climate has always been fluctuating, and we generally “know” why : Seamless perspective 2. Ongoing Climate Change is real and due to increase in Greenhouse Gas concentrations 3. Models have become partners to field-data and observations. Open questions could provide a platform for enhanced interaction and collaboration providing very important constraints and predictions for decision making 4. There is an urgent need for a constructive dialogue to address the “Great Global Challenge” between Energy Needs and Climate Change Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 42 The Great Challenge: Balancing Climate and Energy Needs Thank you! Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 43 Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System 44 Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: A possible “analog” to study future impact on Earth System? Zachos et al. 2005 Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 45 Challenge: Polar Temperatures during Warm Climates (Equator - Pole Gradient : High latitude warm but tropics cool? A data or a model problem?) Proxy Record Models Future Present Huber and Sloan, 2001 Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System Slide 46 Subtropical drying in with large scale warming? Can this fundamental concept be confirmed in past climates? Golden, Mar 14, 2009 WIPS – The Earth's Climate System January 14, 08